Your 2018 Giants: NRI to Spring Training

As reported by the media, the Giants invited a number of players (commonly called NRI or "non-roster invitees") to spring training.  If you subscribe, Melissa Lockard wrote a good account of the players at The Athletic (suggest you try anyway, the tweet that I got this link from noted the unlock symbol on it).  Here is the list of players (via Alex Pavlovic):

• Tyler Cyr, RHP
• Jose Flores, RHP
• Dereck Rodriguez, RHP
• Jose Valdez, RHP
• Madison Younginer, RHP
• Andrew Suarez, LHP
• Hector Sanchez, C
• Trevor Brown, C
• Justin O'Connor
• Orlando Calixte, SS
• Chase D'Arnaud, IF
• Alen Hanson, IF
• Kyle Jensen, IF
• Josh Rutledge, IF
• Chris Shaw, LF/1B
• Steven Duggar, CF

As I noted, I suggest you try the link for Melissa's article, she goes over their history very nicely.

Love Me Tender: Arbitration Offers for Belt and Kontos; Sanchez and Petit non-tendered

As reported by the beats, Belt and Kontos were given arbitration offers and thus are being retained by the Giants.  The bigger news, though anticlimatic since the beats have been foreshadowing this for a long while now, was that Hector Sanchez and Yusmiero Petit were non-tendered.

Your 2015 Giants: Final Roster Battles

With the news of Justin Maxwell being signed by the Giants to a $1M contract (and the DFA of Gary Brown to open up a 40-man roster spot), the Giants are left with only two more roster battles:  last bullpen spot and last MI bench spot.

Your 2014 Giants: Things are Getting Uggla and They Just Got Peavy

The Giants brought up Dan Uggla yesterday, as well as Tony Abreu, as both Ehire Adrianza and Marco Scutaro both goes back onto the 15-day DL.  Unfortunately, both players being brought up were not on the 40-man roster, so Nick Noonan was DFAed, as well as off-season pickup, Jose De Paula.

Then they went out and got Jake Peavy for Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree (you were right Shankbone!)

ogc thoughts

As I commented somewhere, I have no problem with the Giants picking up Uggla and giving him a 25-man spot.  People focus on his decline from his very good years, which I understand.  But right now, we don't need him to be like his very good self, because we got Pence, Posey, Sandoval, Morse in the middle.

What we need is someone who can hit better than Hicks, Arias, Adrianza, Panik, and Scutaro can.  And the Uggla of 2012-2013 can do that in spades.  We don't need a top of the lineup hitter, we just need a steady contributor in the 6-7-8 spots, depending on the day and the pitcher.  Uggla, if 2014 is more a reflection of his discontent with his situation and the pressure of living up to his contract and thus he can be like his 2012-13 self would be good for us.

Of course, regular readers know that I still like Adrianza and that I have pointed out that he's been hitting well since June 1st.  But this is his second DL for the hamstring, and he's probably not getting better until he rests this off-season.   And I don't know if he's ready to be a regular, though if the opportunity were there, I would be OK with it.  But Uggla hasn't been that bad in 2012-13, just not very good, and those versions of him would be OK fine for us in 2014.

Alas Poor Noonan

I still believe in Nick Noonan, but sometimes a player needs more time than a team can give him or just need a change of scenery.  Of course, that's assuming that he's not claimed and returns to the Giants.  He is from the San Diego area though and they probably have a better opening in MI than the Giants, so he could end up there as well.

But he's shown good plate discipline in spurts in the minors and has hit well when he's in his groove.  Unfortunately for him, Joe Panik is like a better version of him, showing good plate discipline too, but doing it more and better than Nick.  Neither one is superior defensively either at MI spots, as well.  Good luck Nick, wherever you end up.

Paging Jake Peavy

Wow, there was enough smoke this time.  There were a lot of rumors that the Giants wanted Peavy.  I was a little surprised that Escobar was the one to go, but given his difficulties this season in AAA, I guess the Giants saw enough that convinced them that he's the one to let go.   Shankbone commented that Hembree might be a throw in, and once I read that, it just made sense to me, given how other relievers got the love this spring and he didn't even make the majors once this season.

And, really, the Giants had to be thinking of a two for one trade anyway, with Hector concussed and likely needing to go on the DL, they would need to add a non-roster catcher to the team today, and would need two spots open.  With Sabean's recent statement that everyone is up for grabs in trade (but only if a fair one in his estimation, so it's not a free for all either), meaning that no one is a keeper, may as well look to give up two for one in a deal, and open up a spot.

The rumors was that the Giants, or specifically, Bochy, wanted Peavy, with the thinking that being with his old manager might help Peavy figure things out.  Of course, that was true back when he was with the White Sox and reportedly on the trading block then too, but he ended up with Boston.   Hopefully that is true.  Don't have time to look at stats, but obviously, he's not doing that well for Boston.  But they still got two Top 10 prospects from the Giants, so they will certainly trumpet that in their press.

I like Petit, but he seems off this season vs. last season, which I attribute to him being a bit rusty pitching irregular relief vs. being a starter in the minors last season.  So I'm OK with this pickup as well, we need another starter with Cain up in the air apparently from the news of no improvement and nobody in the minors looking ready yet.

Catching Fire

With many of the moves that Sabean make, they try to catch lightening in the bottle.  So when they call up a catcher, I expect that Susac will be the recipient of the 40-man roster spot.  He's been hitting well and while not great defensively, most reports have been positive that I recall.  May as well give him a chance to play up here and see what he got.  And frankly, Sanchez has been banged up so many times that I don't expect him out for only 7 days, much like how Belt has been out more than 7 days (FYI, turns out that it was Scutaro that threw the ball that hit Belt in the face, and he just got sent back down:  coincidence?).

2013 Redux?

Wow, so many injuries happening and keeping guys out long term.  Seems a lot like 2013 again, when a lot of guys were out for injuries or dealing with recurring pain.  The difference is that our main lineup is still mostly OK, the bullpen seems fine, and the rotation just got a boost, hopefully.  But we will see.

Your 2013 Giants: The Best Minor League Rotation: San Jose

I was inspired by Shankbone's post on the rotation.  Plus, there were great quotes on some of them in a recent Sabean interview (Pavlovic).

Mostly, BA, in their round up on each of the minor leagues for 2013, had all five members of the San Jose rotation in their Top 20 ranking of prospects in the California League (here, scroll down to Cal League).   Here were their ranking:

• #3:  Crick
• #6:  Escobar
• #10:  Mejia
• #15:  Blach
• #20:  Blackburn

No other team had their entire rotation in their league's Top 20 ranking, though the Blue Jays came close in the rookie Appalachian League with four pitchers, but their top guy was 6th and I'm not sure if any were relievers.  Diamondbacks had three pitchers in the Northwest League.  Padres had three in the Midwest League.  Marlins had three in Florida State League.  Padres had three in Texas League.

Other Giants making a league's Top 20 list include:

• #2:  Arroyo (Arizona Rookie League)
• #14:  Mella (Arizona Rookie League)
• #18:  Jones (Arizona Rookie League)
• #8:  Chase Johnson (Northwest League)

On top of that, these guys dominated the BA Giants Top 10 ranking as well:

• #1:  Crick
• #2:  Escobar
• #4:  Mejia
• #8:  Blach
• #10:  Blackburn

Crick was rated with both the best fastball and best curveball, showing how advanced he is.  Clayton Blackburn had the best Changeup.  Ty Blach had the best control.  (and I would note that Derek Law had the best slider; plus FYI, Brown was considered the best athlete, Adrianza the best defensive infielder).

Here is the Giants entire Top 10 prospect list for 2014:

• #1:  Kyle Crick (best fastball and curve)
• #2:  Edwin Escobar
• #3:  Chris Stratton
• #4:  Adalberto Mejia
• #5:  Mac Williamson
• #6:  Christian Arroyo (best hitter for average)
• #7:  Heath Hembree
• #8:  Ty Blach (best control)
• #9:  Joe Panik (best strike-zone discipline)
• #10:  Clayton Blackburn (best changeup)

Stratton was surprisingly high on the list at #3.  Apparently his scouted talents are still highly ranked and his struggles there were written down due to his recovery from his concussion in 2012 and his learning curve related to the work the Giants were doing with him with his mechanics.  Given Panik's struggles, I was surprised to see him still above Blackburn, who I highly rate, but perhaps that is because the scout's view of Blackburn is not very positive, many think of him as a back of rotation starter, whereas I think he's at least a middle rotation guy, if not higher.

Here are the Sabean quotes from Pavlovic:

Edwin Escobar (Sabean said he’s likely headed for Triple-A): “Escobar has been asked about quite a bit, which is good. He’s right on schedule to take the next step and have a baseline of innings for being called up, or if he’s not called up he’ll have 185-plus innings at the end of next year. He’s a strike-thrower. He’s very aggressive in the zone.”

Kyle Crick: “Crick kind of had a chopped up season. Whether it’s him or any prospect or almost any pitcher in that (fall) league, sometimes the stat line doesn’t tell you the best story. He had real good, inconsistent stuff. The power to his stuff was impressive.”

Adalberto Mejia: “It’s just about overall maturation. He’s a big-bodied guy who is still learning his delivery, balance in his delivery.”

Plus a couple more on other prospects, since Sabes noted it:  

Derek Law: “Obviously was dominant and didn’t give up a run (in the AFL) and it really turned our heads because it by and large is a hitters’ league … I’m really interested to see what he does against Major League hitters in spring training. He’s got a breaking ball, being that hard overhand curveball that you don’t see. The action is almost like a splitter.”

Andrew Susac: “I think we all agree that he’s got a chance to be a frontline catcher. He had a real good fall league. He’s got to clean up some things, concentration behind the plate from pitch to pitch. He needs to work on his shifting and his blocking but that’s true for any catcher as they go through the minor leagues.”

ogc thoughts

So my title lied, not just about the best minor league rotation, but other minor league info as well.

Wow, I never looked before for this, only a team's fan would notice, but that has to be a pretty rare thing to happen, to have 5 of your top prospect pitchers to not only be in the same league, but also rank among the best in the league that same season.  Blackburn just made it in at 20th, and I think that he's really talented and was hurt by his poor showing in Stockton (3 horrific starts there; his numbers otherwise were in line with his 2012 stats in Augusta adjusted for a hitter's league).

Crick was in BA's Top 100 last season, if I recall right, so I expect him to stay in it for 2014.  I wonder if Escobar will get into the ranking as well.  I don't think any other prospect will make it on for 2014.

Nice comments from Sabean on a number of prospects.  He expounds a little more about why the Giants like Escobar, though not a lot.  Same for Crick and Mejia.  Funny that Law was rated with the best slider by BA, and yet Sabean points out his "hard overhand curveball that you don't see.  The action is almost like a splitter."  Biggest bit of info was his thoughts on Susac:  "I think we all agree that he's got a chance to be a frontline catcher."  

Plus the Pavlovic blog also noted this on Hanchez:  "People look at him as a potential frontline catcher."  

As much as the Giants made a point that Posey is their catcher, I have to hope that once Susac or Hanchez show enough to be a frontline catcher, the Giants move Posey to another position (hopefully 3B, pushing Sandoval to 1B and Belt to LF), with the duo being co-starters.  It makes no sense to keep Posey there long term once there proves to be a viable starting catcher, the wear and tear on his body is tremendous, and the nicks and pains of the catching position can only hurt his ability to stay consistent offensively, where his value is most prominent, particularly since he's been mostly just average defensively as a catcher since coming back from his ankle injury.

I understand needing to make that message known today, in support of arguably their biggest star player, but in the best interests of the long-term success of the team, he needs to move off the position within the next 3 seasons, before his 30 YO season (he's 27, 28, 29 next three).   That fits time wise with Susac and Hanchez, they probably won't be ready until 2015 at the earliest, but if continue to develop, should be ready by 2016.   With the hints that Sandoval might be extended, that move would cause a three player shuffle, but Posey can't hit like he can and earn the money on the back end of the deal if he's crippled playing catcher.

Good Timing:  Need to Replace Pitching

Something I discussed, I think, on Shankbone's, is the Giants need to replace pitchers in the pitching staff over the next 2-3 years.   Here are the guys 30 and over right now:

• Lincecum (30 YO season in 2014)
• Cain (30 YO in 2015)
• Vogelsong (36 YO)
• Hudson (38 YO)
• Romo (31 YO)
• Affeldt (35 YO)
• Kontos (30 YO in 2015)
• Casilla (33 YO)
• Lopez (36 YO)
• Machi (32 YO)
• Petit (30 YO in 2015)

That's 11 pitchers who could be in the pitching staff in 2014 season, out of 12 on the 25-man roster, with Bumgarner the only youngster among the bunch.

Luckily, they should not all break down and leave the team at the same time, some can and will last into their late 30's.  But even if just half of them need replacement, that is 5-6 pitchers needed at the major league level.  So while we should count our lucky stars that we have so many young pitching prospects rising up quickly, I must remind all of us of the Big 3 we were counting at about 10 years ago, in Foppert, Ainsworth, Williams.  Then there was Lowry as well.  So we might need each and every one of them to refill our pitching staff over the next few years, leaving no surplus to trade off.  Just keep that in mind when dreaming of trades.

2012 Giants: May PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of May 2012, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Your 2012 Giants: Say Hey Panda and other notes

Apologies to the content police, I just want to publish this post and not deal with links to sourcing.  I will note that I read the usual suspects, Baggs, Hank, Alex.

Also, blogger screwed up (AGAIN! They forced me to use their new tool format and so far it STINKS!) and didn't publish when I scheduled it to, as this should have went out during lunch, before today's game, so all the stats below are for before today's game's stats.

Your 2012 Giants: Opening Day 25-man Roster

Ultimately, the fans' fury and worry was for naught, as the Giants went with youth over vets.  Bochy announced the roster live on CSN Bay Area at 11:30AM PDT (it was available on-line!).  Here is the 25-man roster (CSN, Mercury, Chronicle):

• SP:  Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Barry Zito
• RP:  Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Clay Hensley, Javier Lopez, Guillermo Mota, Dan Otero, Sergio Romo
• C:  Buster Posey, Hector Sanchez
• IF:  Brandon Belt, Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Aubrey Huff, Brett Pill, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Theriot
• OF:  Gregor Blanco, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nate Schierholtz

Eli Whiteside was optioned (amazingly, he still had one!) to Fresno, so if we need an experienced catcher, we can pull one up as necessary.  Chris Stewart, unfortunately, had to be let go and Bochy said that his fate would be announced in around an hour (he has been traded to the Yankees for a reliever, George Kontos, who was the top RH reliever not ranked in BA's Top 30, if that counts for anything.  2.62 ERA in 89.1 IP in AAA last season).  They must really really like Sanchez's bat a lot to do this.

Otero won the battle for the right to hold the spot warm for Ryan Vogelsong while Vogie is DLing until the 5th spot opens up on April 15th.  As I noted before, great stats, should not be the last time we see him, could be first RH call-up if any problems; Runzler is probably first LH.

Bochy said that Belt would be playing 1B most of the time, but then noted that Pill would get the starts against LHP.  Later, he also noted that Posey would see time at 1B when it is decided that he needs rest but can play 1B, and Bochy said that it would be against LHP.  Of course, that pushed Huff to LF and Schierholtz out of the starting lineup, which was one of the scenarios I laid out before spring training.  One thing I did not see was Gregor Blanco winning a spot, and so convincingly, even if a starter went down, Bochy would probably go to him before Schierholtz.

He would not commit to a starter at 2B, stating his mix and match process.  I think that has to do with a number of factors.  One is that Burriss suddenly got cold.  Another is that Theriot heated up.  Most of all, I think, it was noted at some point (can't recall if Bochy said it or I hear/saw it somewhere else) that Freddy Sanchez was suddenly looking better and doing more, so the Giants are more hopeful now that he'll be back sooner than later.  That could explain the Giants comment about Burriss being a super-utility guy for them.

Your 2012 Giants: Late Spring Rosterbation

Lots of interesting news on the roster composition (Baggerly, Schulman, Pavlovic, and Schulman on Fontenot).

First big news is that the Giants are planning to carry 12 pitchers, not 11, even though Vogelsong will be on the DL and his turn in the rotation will be skipped.  The worry is that Zito might have a short start and thus tax the bullpen early.  This change in plans is good news for a pitcher looking for an opportunity to show off what he's got.  The media list Dan Otero, Steve Edlefson, and Jean Machi as the possibles, and I agree with their thinking that Dan Otero is the guy they bring up.

I've liked Otero for a while now.  His K/BB ratios are out of this world.  I'm not sure why he's been slowly brought up the farm system, though looking at his seasonal stats, it looks like he probably got injured in late 2009 and missed a good portion of 2010, and thus why they have been slow since, to give him time to recover and get back to 100%.  His stats remind me of Sergio Romo.

Of course, the other eleven pitchers are Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain, Zito as the starters, in that order, and Wilson, Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Mota, and Hensley in the bullpen.  I have liked the pickup of Hensley, but with Zito's struggles, I think I like it even more.

Not that I don't think Zito will eventually prove useful enough that we keep him around, but with Mota and Hensley around, another pitcher could be crappy (remember, Bumgarner didn't do that well in early 2011 either and the bullpen was used a lot with Madison doing poorly and Zito struggling, most probably due to internal injuries from his car accident, before he DLed).  I think Zito will be fine as our 4th or 5th starter, in any case, as people forget that the vast majority of teams do not have that great a 4th or 5th starter.  Let Surkamp mature and develop a little more in AAA, that's where he would have been if he wasn't the emergency starter last year and brought up.

The next big news is that Bochy backed off from committing to Whiteside or Stewart as the only backup, they could carry three, but they could also carry one and perhaps neither of those two, which would imply that Hector Sanchez as the only backup scenario is being discussed by Bochy and Sabean.  Not too shocking given how well Sanchez has been hitting all spring.

I view this more as a dry hump where Bochy teases the fan base with this possibility, as a reward to Sanchez for how well he has done in the spring, but I expect him to say something to the effect that "it was a very hard decision to make, a tough one, but we really think a lot of Sanchez's potential and think it is best for him to start in AAA and get regular playing time."  And I agree with that.

We still don't know what we got with Hector.  Most prospect analyst books say that he's more of a future backup catcher type.  But look at the hitting he has done as well as the raves he got as a catcher from pitchers last season.  Given Posey's uncertainty long-term at C (I still see him moving to 3B or possibly 2B eventually - I originally had him going to 2B, but Panik looks good there plus I saw a comment that Posey might not have the ability to handle 2B, particularly after his injury.  Of course, if he moves to 3B, Sandoval would move to 1B, and that works in terms of how good either is with the bat, Posey is just an ordinary hitter at 1B, very good at 3B), I think the Giants have to see if they can get Sanchez to develop into a starting catcher, because as nicely as Tommy Joseph has done so far and as nicely as Andrew Susac looks in being good offensively and defensively, you never know when they will hit the wall developmentally, even Hector too.  It is not like Hector is only anybody's Top 100 prospects in baseball list.  We have to continue to develop Hector as a starting catcher.  And that happens fastest with him in AAA in 2012, at least to start.

Besides, I think Stewart is more than adequate as backup.  The main call for him to start at catcher, at least initially, is when Posey gets moved to 1B for a start, pushing Huff either out or to LF (where then Schierholtz is out).  That works best with a LH starter going, and last season Stewart hit .295/.392/.409/.801 against LHP and he is 278/.371/.407/.778 lifetime.  Plus, he was rated by the Fielding Bible to be among the leaders in the majors in preventing runs with his defense, that despite it being a counting stat (meaning the more you play, the more you can produce) and he only played roughly a third of the innings that the leaders played as starters.  He could be perfect in a platoon with a LH-hitting catcher and late innings replacement.

For the rest of the roster, right now the starting lineup looks like this:  Posey C, Huff 1B, Burriss 2B, Sandoval 3B, Crawford SS, Cabrera LF, Pagan CF, and Schierholtz RF.  The Giants have been clearly telegraphing that Belt most probably will end up starting at 1B in AAA, particularly with that talk recently with Meulens saying that Belt has holes that he needs to fix up.

Fans will be upset with that but people forget that spring training is often an experimental practice ground for some of the pitchers.  They are not pitching to Belt solely to get him out, they will be trying out different pitches and different patterns.  But once the real season begins, if he still has the holes the Giants think he has, he will be exposed AGAIN like last season.

I see some are drinking Belt's Kool-Aid, but I'll point it out again:  none of the prospect hounds or Giants fans thought much of Belt when he was drafted, but the Giants were the ones who 1) saw the potential, 2) helped him recraft his mechanics, and 3) gave him the opportunity to fly up the minors to the majors, so if anyone understands how good Belt is and where he's going wrong, it is the Giants.

I think we can all agree that Belt has great potential for great things in baseball.  Why not make sure that he is ready and not have him yo-yo up and down?  People also forget that great prospects do not always become great players.  Hello Andy Marte, Sean Burroughs, etc.  People also forget that Belt clearly has some hole(s) because he struck out at a 30% rate in AAA and the majors.

And, furthermore, yes, he might hit well in the majors now, and be a good player, but if he can cut down the strikeouts to how he was doing it in AA, he could be a major star, hitting for average, walking a lot, striking out a little, hitting a lot of homers, plus great defense to boot.  Moreover, once you dump Huff (as many Belt believers think), you don't have that option anymore, we are pretty much stuck with Belt at 1B, no matter how poorly he is hitting.  We need the risk mitigation that sending Sanchez and Belt to the minors provide, and that is something that fans do not understand yet, but that I've been harping on for a number of years now.

What if Sanchez and Belt were brought up and they fail.  Yeah, yeah, yeah, they're so good they can't, right?  But good prospects fail all the time, Matt Weiters came up and hit nowhere close to what people thought he would hit.  After two so-so seasons, he finally started hitting consistently last season, his third one.

What if the Giants do as the fans ask and they play and play but at the end of May, they are still not over the Mendoza Line?   Can someone say "the offense probably stinks"?  Because Huff would be gone in most fans' scenario, traded away for a thong.

Or what if Posey is struggling as well, or worse, injured again?  Keeping only Sanchez most probably means we lost Stewart to waivers, who not only is good defensively but good hitting against LHP?  A team out there will want him to be at least a platoon/backup catcher.  So we probably have Whiteside as our starter and Jackson Williams as our backup catcher, as they send Sanchez down to AAA to figure out his bat.  Do we really need another Bocock moment?

With both in the minors, we get to see whether:  1) Huff's Pilates work helped out or not and he's hitting or not, 2) Posey holds up to the workload or not, 3) Stewart holds up as backup catcher seeing more playing time, 4) Cabrera, Pagan, and Schierholtz produces as our starting OF.  Then if any of those fail, hopefully Sanchez and Belt is doing what we hope they can be doing in the minors and be brought up in May sometime, or maybe Peguero might breakout and start in the OF.  Risk mitigation, options provide that.

I think Huff will be fine in 2012, closer to his career batting line than 2011's.  I've looked at the teams he's been on, plus been observing his interviews, and he is not a leader.  Nothing wrong with that, but while he makes airs about that, he's not.  If anything, he's the class clown, and you don't need to go far to see that, with his whole Rally Thong routine.  And people might not recall, but Huff was hitting OK, but nothing good, until Pat Burrell joined the team and started hitting great, at which point, Huff started hitting great.  Pat Burrell is a leader, an instigator, but Aubrey is not (and again, nothing wrong with that).

And I noticed that on teams where he's the offensive leader, he's usually struggling, having a lower half seasonal batting line for his career, but when he's surrounded by hitters, he relaxes and is able to hit well.  No shame in that.  A lot of hitters struggle when they have the weight of the world on their shoulders.  Ishikawa couldn't hit for anything in 2009 until he "put himself in God's hands" and stopped thinking about it.  He hit close to .800 OPS the rest of the way (I still think he can be a good 1B for a team somewhere; he's with the Brewers, last I heard).  How many times have we heard a batter say that his breakthrough in getting out of a slump was to stop thinking and just follow that ol' rule:  see ball, hit ball?

This season, with Sandoval and Posey back, plus Cabrera and Pagan up top, Huff should not feel as much pressure.  Particularly Sandoval, he could have had 30+ homers last season had he played the full season and most hitters suffered a loss of power during the season after having hamate bone surgery, so what if he was held back and does even better in 2012?  DrB noted 40 homer potential for Pablo and my analysis agreed.

And I think the offense not only will be much improved, but will be up there with the 2010 team.  Pagan looks good as the replacement for the 2010 Torres, but even if not, Gregor Blanco looks like he could be the second coming of Torres.  He could step in for Pagan, should he fail to get going.

And even if Pagan is playing well, Blanco will probably get his chances, like Torres did.  Unfortunately, Schierholtz's style of playing appears to invite danger and injuries.  I've seen players like that through baseball history, Pistol Pete Reiser was like that for the Brooklyn Dodgers, he was good when he played, but he was injured so, so much.  I would put Aaron Rowand in that category, he would be hitting well for us, grooving the balls, then he would get injured, one way or another, and there goes the season.  So I see Nate going down, again, at some point in the season.  Still, if he's healthy, I think that he could have a breakout year, when he is on, he's white hot.

I think Crawford will surprise with his hitting.  He impressed me greatly last season, being able to avoid strikeouts by getting his bat on the ball and putting it into play.  I felt that with adjustments, the balls he hit would turn to base hits and that started happening late in the 2011 season, then he continued it in the AFL and then Spring Training.  I would bet on him and Blanco as the likely nice surprises of 2012 out of the hitters.

Burriss I'm still not sold on.  I've seen too many prospects do well in spring, only to disappoint in the regular season.  But this is his do-or-die season so at least we get to try him out as starter for a while, and see whether he finally broke out or if he's a AAAA player.  And no matter what he does, there is also the possibility that the Washington Nat's might be willing to give us an OK prospect for him in trade, as he's a local D.C. product and they might be looking for a 2B, as they are not sold on Desmond, from what I've read.

I think Cabrera will do enough to justify the trade.  He probably won't duplicate 2011's stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does, because players sometimes breakout at his age, as their cumulative experience finally adds up for them and/or they finally grow up and prepare properly for the baseball season.  Even if he produces what he did in 2009 (which is roughly what he produced from 2009-2011), that is good enough for our offense to win a lot of games with our pitching, if everyone one else hits as projected.

I don't know about Pagan.  That is why I'm glad we have Blanco and Belt/Huff in case he fails.  Risk mitigation is a wonderful thing.

Posey, nobody knows.  So far, so good, everything as progressed very well, looks great.  I cross my fingers and hope for the best.  That's partly why I want Sanchez in the minors.  I want him getting ready to be the starter for us, in case of any issues with Posey's return to baseball.   We don't know if Posey has to play 1B all season in 2012, or even sit out the season.   Risk mitigation.  Plus, keeping Stewart, if Posey for any reason cannot catch, a platoon of Stewart and Sanchez should be a good enough imitation of Posey that our lineup will bend but not break, particularly if Sandoval and Cabrar are hitting..

That leaves the bench.  Obviously, one backup catcher and I don't see how there can be two, we need all the spots for versatility.  I think Brett Pill got one spot, he has been OK playing all the corner positions and would be the power bat off our bench.  I think with the uncertainty about Franchez and Burriss, plus they just waived  Fontenot, they are clearly keeping Theriot, likely for the reasons Schulman noted, that the team needs right-handed hitters.  And Gregor Blanco has done so well, plus all the columnists think that he's in for sure (the waiving of Fontenot also fills the Giants need for a 40-man spot for Gregor Blanco), and that's four bench spots.

I don't see how the Giants can go with only one backup middle infielder, so I would guess that Joaquin Arias has impressed the coaching staff enough to win the last bench spot.  He has impressed with his defense and has been a good hitter in the minors.  But this could be how they keep Hector Sanchez up as well.  That would also explain Bochy's hesitation to note Stewart or Whiteside as the backup catcher..

Now, if the Giants keep Arias, this would be a stretch and depends on the arcane rules of 40 man rostering, but if Pill has any options left, he could go to AAA, with Blanco and Burriss, in that order, covering the corner OF positions, and that could open things up for bringing Hector Sanchez as a backup catcher.  Again, I prefer him starting in AAA, but this is still a possibility, if Pill has any options left.

Giant News: Hector Sanchez is coming up; Crick signs

Just had to write about Hector Sanchez being called up (ExtraBaggs rumor on twitter).  Crazy Crabbers has a nice rundown of his stats at his blog.  I've already opined there that I don't think it was for his offense, since he's doing OK, not great in AAA.  From what I've read, his defense is pretty good at catcher, so that could be the major factor there.  Or could it?

Here is my speculation:  what if the Giants are grooming him to be the catcher of the future (meaning 2012-13)?

2010 Spring Training Cuts

Hank Schulman captured the hitters cut yesterday and Andy Baggarly covered the pitchers today.

The hitters:

• Brett Pill, 1B
• Ehire Adrianza, SS
• Wendell Fairley, CF
• Johnny Monell, C
• Thomas Neal, OF
• Nick Noonan, 2B
• Hector Sanchez, C
• Jackson Williams, C

The pitchers:

• Craig Clark
• Rafael Cova
• Steve Edlefsen
• Eric Hacker
• Osirus Matos
• Clayton Tanner
• Dan Turpen
• Craig Whitaker

Plus, Steven Johnson, our Rule 5 draft pick passed through waivers and was offered back to the Orioles, who presumably will take him back, if not already.

None were surprising to my mind. Schulman noted the following, however, about Pill:

The only mild surprise is Pill, because I was told he would get a long look this spring. But that was before Aubrey Huff's defensive deficiencies became so apparent, prompting the team to give Buster Posey and John Bowker some longer looks at first base. Pill needs to get his work in the minor-league camp.

According to Baseball America, Pill is the best defensive firstbaseman in the Giants farm system, so that makes sense that they would want to look at him longer. However, as nicely as he did in AA last season, he was a 24 YO in a league averaging 24 YO and did not stand out from the crowd offensively. Only the best of the best in the league will move on to the majors and be successful.

For example, in 2008, Pablo Sandoval hit .337/.364/.549/.913, good for 9th in the EL. He was 21 YO. Wieters led the league in OPS and was 22 YO. None of the other "leaders" in the EL in OPS were highly thought of prospects, and age had to do with it. Only Nick Evans of the Mets (22 YO) was in the Top 10 and that young. Casper Wells (23YO) was 4th and is 16th in Detroit's system this season. Luke Hughes (23 YO) was 7th and has already fell off the Twin's prospect list.

It would have been a stretch to see Pill on the major league roster to start the season. And I suppose part of that interest to see him was driven by Ishikawa's injury with no clear take on what would happen until recently when they determined that he won't need surgery and would be ready for the season.

Meanwhile, Buster Posey continues to impress at 1B, which could be another reason Pill was sending packing (see Haft's nice article on Posey). Still, as this and other articles note, the Giants view Posey as a catcher, and Bochy's comments in this post affirm that: "I like the way he's catching. I want to keep him sharp back there." I think it is clear that Posey is the Giants catcher of the future and that the Giants will promote him when that time comes.

However, most probably that time is the second half of this season and I can see the Giants bringing up Posey and basically platoon him between C and 1B, giving Molina rests at 1B, and giving Posey AB's against LHP at 1B in place of Huff. And if they make the playoffs, he'll be a potent bat off the bench or perhaps even starting, depending on how poorly Molina and/or Huff is hitting, plus how tired Posey is, he clearly pooped out at the end of the 2009 season. And should they be lucky enough to make the World Series, he could be starting at either DH or 1B, depending on the situation regarding Huff's defense.

And that's the big news in this news blurb, that Huff's defense is causing a Giants re-think on how 1B is handled. Clearly, they need a strong defensive 1B on the bench now, meaning Posey won't cut it and Ishikawa, as long as he is healthy enough, will be that strong defensive 1B. Prior defensive stats (like UZR and Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus) suggested that Huff might have been OK enough there (about -0.5 wins) to warrant giving up the defense for his bat, but clearly there is some worry there now. And greater need for keeping someone like Ishikawa around all season for 2010, even though he's also a lefty and cannot really play any other position.

2010 Giants Non-Roster Invitees: 22 this season

This was blogged on by Henry Schulman last week, been meaning to get to it. Here is the list of names he reported on:

• Denny Bautista (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract))
• Santiago Casilla (RHP; former A's reliever, signed to minor league contract recently)
• Rafael Cova (RHP)
• Steven Edlefsen (RHP; BA rated him as best slider in 2008 annual)
• Eric Hacker (RHP)
• Osiris Matos (RHP; we dropped him from 40-man so apparently nobody claimed him and returned to us)
• Tony Pena Jr. (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract)
• Felix Romero (RHP)
• Dan Turpen (RHP)
• Craig Whitaker (RHP; top pick, been working his way up long time)
• Craig Clark (LHP)
• Clayton Tanner (LHP; local kid, been doing well, rising up, good luck!)
• Steve Holm (C; was dropped from 40-man last season when Whiteside brought up)
• Jonny Monell (C)
• Hector Sanchez (C; one of our better prospects)
• Jackson Williams (C; one of our sandwich draft picks, good/great skills, bad bat so far)
• Ehire Adrianza (SS; reported as major league ready SS skills, needs to develop hitting, still young)
• Brandon Crawford (SS; noted as SS of the future by Giants brass this off-season)
• Nick Noonan (2B/SS; hype has died down but this past season was first year he showed hitting discipline that scouts raved about when drafted, I'm very encouraged by his good improvement late in the season, but he needs to continue showing that)
• Wendell Fairley (CF; has been up and down as a prospect, but it's a good sign that they are bringing him up to spring training this year)
• Roger Kieschnick (RF; had very good first full pro season, still strikes out too much but shows all the skills he was advertised to have, very encouraging first year)
• Thomas Neal (LF, not RF as Schulman noted; breakout season, nice recovery from injury from a couple of years back, could be in majors soon if he continues hitting like that but in AA, remniscent of Pablo's rise)

Giants Thoughts

I totally and vehemently disagree with Henry Schulman's assertion that the Giants need to "develop three or four Pablo Sandovals and stick them on the field at the same time." It would obviously help, and I, of course, wouldn't mind that as that would give us one of the great teams in the history of the majors, but that is not critical to the team's success over the next few seasons. Perhaps this is why fans are so upset over the lineup, because reporters lead them to think that having so many great hitters (and Sandoval is a great hitter) in the lineup is a requirement to be successful every season in making the playoffs.

Heck, we didn't even have three or four Sandovals the year we went to the World Series (Bonds and Kent only, nobody else even broke 800 OPS).

Here is how special Sandoval was in 2009: only 6 hitters in the NL had a OPS as high as Sandoval's .943, only 4 hitters in the AL, for a total of 10 hitters in the majors, out of roughly 400 hitters. There are not that many players like Sandoval in the majors. So, no, we don't need to develop three or four Pablo Sandovals, that would be setting the bar waaay too high.

As I noted in my business plan series (linked to the side), when you have a great pitching staff, the offense does not have to be that good to win 90 games. With our defense (pitching and fielding) last season, we only needed to score 4.30 runs per game to reach 90 wins. That would have placed us comfortably 11th in the NL in 2009 (average runs scored was 4.43), behind the Washington Nationals which was 10th with 4.38 runs scored. With an average offense, we would have won 92 games.

Using Bill James projections plus our projected lineup, the Giants should score over 4.5 runs per game. To win 92 games averaging 4.5 runs scored, our defense would need a runs allowed average of 3.83, just slightly above last year's 3.77.

But James's projections tend to be on the high side, from what I recall. CHONE won for "best" projection for their 2008 projections, if I remember right. Using CHONE's projections, the Giants should score over 4.4 runs per game. If they did that, the Giants defense would have to allow 3.73 runs per game, or slightly better than last year's figure.

And I think that it is safe to assume something similar to last year's. Lincecum should be about the same. Any regression by Cain and/or Zito should be offset by Sanchez pitching well for a season (4.24 ERA overall but 5.54 ERA as starter before no-hitter and 3.46 ERA starting from no-hitter, and even without the no-hitter, he had a 3.83 ERA afterward, plus maturation and confidence and development for 2010, when he'll be 27 YO) and improvements in the #5 starter, whether Bumgarner or whoever, as our other starters (other then the four we have for 2010) had a 4.62 ERA collectively in 2009. Defensively, we take a big hit with Huff at 1B, but DeRosa and Sanchez are pretty good in the OF and 2B, respectively, which should balance things there. Plus Renteria's arm should be better with the surgery and Sandoval should be better with one more season of experience.

But I do agree vociferously with most of the rest of Schulman's post. "The Giants have taken the first step with some good position-playing drafts." I also agree with the Giants front office assertion that Baseball America was ill-informed when it criticized their system before, particularly in 2007 and 2008 when Sandoval was doing well but BA didn't think enough of him to put him in the Giants Top 30 prospects list.

I also whole heartedly agree that "Fans need some patience." Fans have not been patient. This is a long term process, and worrying that this might be the only year we can capitalize on Lincecum et al is fatalistic and shows lack of confidence, which I suppose is only fitting because these fans show no confidence in Sabean despite the great job he has done with the pitching staff. I, for one, am glad the Giants are taking the long view with regards to their strategy and not signing a Holliday (who I think is being overpaid in any case).

As I've been preaching the past few years, the Giants have been re-building and re-builds are never pretty nor cleanly done. It is never done with just home-grown players, there will always be free agents signed to fill in the gaps that the farm system could not fill. It will not be perfect, there will be mistakes, but you have to look at the big picture and see what team is coming out of the process.

What is coming out is a team dominated by a great pitching rotation, supported by a great bullpen, and has a developing offense, with Sandoval now in there (we have at least 5 more seasons of him) and Posey in the wings, plus a lot of good prospects percolating upward or already trying to make a name for themselves (Schierholtz, Bowker, Ishikawa, Burriss, Frandsen).

People are worried that the Giants won't be able to re-sign their young pitchers beyond our arbitration control because of the large contracts already committed (Zito and Rowand) but here I am putting my trust into Neukom's statement that he will get the money should we ever need it for a player. People have been assuming that applies only to free agents but I would have to think that it would apply to our own players as well, and Lincecum and Cain will be the first recipients of that largess, I believe.

Lastly, I would clarify one statement Schulman noted, that developing position players have not been the Giants forte. That's true if you are looking at the total number of position players developed. But that's not the whole story.

The whole story is that the Giants have been focusing their first round picks mainly on pitchers for the most part since Sabean took over as GM, and particularly after Dick Tidrow took over as head of player personnel. Those picks have the greatest likelihood of becoming a major league player, and even then, when you are winning, those picks become a good starting player around 10% of the time, which is pretty low odds. And they just get lower and lower, already around 1% by only the 4th round.

Picks like Posey (5th) and Wheeler (6th) become good players around 45% of the time, but by the 10th pick (Lincecum and Bumgarner) it has fallen to around 20% success rate for finding good starting players, and by the 21-30th picks, the ones that the playoff teams get, it is around 10%, as noted above.

That is a pretty low success rate, so while it is correct to say that developing position players have not been the Giants forte, there is a huge mitigating factor in that they had not been trying to be successful in developing position players, really, until 2008 when they drafted Buster Posey, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, and Brandon Crawford.

And, if Sandoval continues to hit like he did in 2009, what would you rather have: one Pablo Sandoval or a handful of Mark Teahen's, Bobby Crosby's, Dan Johnson's, Mike Jacob's? I would rather get a great player once in a while who you can't pick up easily via free agency, than a bunch of OK starters who you can pick up easily via free agency.

And Sabean has picked up great players over the years. Kent in 1997. Schmidt in 2001. Cain in 2002. Sandoval in 2003. Lincecum in 2006. And it is looking like Bumgarner in 2007 and Posey in 2008. Plus if Sanchez and Wilson continue doing well, I would add them to the list as well.

Oh, and I totally agree with Schulman that "they will be fun to watch."