Just watched the Devo documentary over the weekend, and everything is reminding me of them, including the Giants amazing winning streak right now: (great band, great song): https://youtu.be/MSqE0Q_mg1s?si=3frKT5p8J7z4HGuh
We are walking the tightrope fans have to walk on all the time in our fanatical following of our teams: close enough to hope and wonder, far enough that only an apocalyptic ending for another team (or teams) will get us in. While we fell out quickly and others rose quickly, now other teams are falling while we rose quickly.
And for all we know it could be like the dying, there’s a phenomenon where the dying suddenly have one last healthy day, even coming out of their coma, giving hope, before succumbing. Could that be us?
Or can this team continue to rise? People like to point out that this team has been .500 most of the months of this season. Want to know another team that was mostly .500 in most of the months of the season? The 2010 team was not more than 4 games over .500 in four of the six months (53-52 in total for those four months), but played amazingly great at the end of the season.
More likely the Giants are not going to make the playoffs, but at least they are making this season interesting!
2026 is the Last Transitional Season: 2027 Should be Competitive
I’ve been saying since last offseason that this season is a transitional one, where we are still more focused on learning about the team than expecting to compete. It was pretty obvious to me. They went with Verlander, Hicks and Roupp as the starters, all with significant question marks, as well as Fitzgerald as starting 2B. Plus the closer situation was still relatively new, and as we saw, had a lot of ups and downs there.
I felt the range should be around 81-89 wins (between 0 and 16 games above .500) and that is roughly where they have been all season, dipping very under recently, unfortunately, but has been mostly in that range. So this transition has mostly been true, though we’ll always have that tie with LA atop the Western Division midseason and it seemed liked we were ready to compete.
It seems like it is still possible to be more like 2008 than 2009, but I think it’s more like 2009, when we last started to be competitive, in that we should be over .500 this season, should be expecting a potentially great player to be promoted to the team (Posey then, Eldridge now) and so I think we can expect to be competitive in 2026, but the question is still how competitive.
But the move to trade for Devers is a strong signal that the team will be all in going forward. Aside from the fact that they took on over $250M in contract value, the clock is ticking loudly for their three best hitters - Devers, Chapman, and Adames - and mostly for Chapman who will be 33 next season. So the Giants ownership has no choice but to push forward and make this investment in Devers pay off by committing to even more big contracts in the coming offseason. And there should be enough space, even if they resign Verlander, enough to get at least one high end player.
How to Take the Next Step Up
I think at least acquiring a top of rotation level pitcher (#2) and another set up guy (hopefully the next Affeldt) would do the trick. The Giants have three good starters now in Webb, Ray and Roupp, but Roupp is unfortunately injury prone, so we need a more reliable good starter. And with Rodriguez out all of 2026 (and likely still adjusting in 2027) plus Miller having his issues, I feel that another set up reliever is necessary.
Verlander Return?
It will be interesting to see what happens with Verlander if he continues to pitch well. If the Giants sign another good starter, Verlander would technically be the 5th starter. But if he can continue this level of performance (iffy given he’ll be 43, but you never know), he would be capable of beating other back of rotation starters.
For example, Barry Zito was never a good pitcher for us, but he was okay in four of his seasons. And in 2012, only an 85 ERA+, which is okay. But he was 15-8 in his starts, and the Giants were 21-11 in his starts. That would get Verlander a significant amount of wins towards 300.
Or the Giants could leave a spot for the young pitchers to fight over, but risk the competitiveness of the 2026 team. So it will be interesting how they handle this rotation spot in the offseason.
Young Prospect Pipeline is Slowing
Moreover, the youth rebuild is already into its third season next year (Bailey, Harrison in 2023, Ramos, Walker, Rodriguez, Miller in 2024, Roupp, Lee, Schmitt in 2025). So the stream of prospects ready to push for the majors is slowing, with only Eldridge, Matos, Drew Gilbert, Blade Tidwell, Jesus Rodriguez, Birdsong, Whisenhunt and Black as the highly regarded prospects who could maybe make the majors (all are still very questionable right now, though Eldridge is likely to make it) and most of our next crop is in the lower minors right now, and Kilen is probably the best of them and probably 2-4 years out. Davidson, Harris and Choate could be names in the coming years too.
Core Hitters’ Peak Short
In addition, the core hitters (Chapman, Adames, Devers) are not getting younger (maybe 2-3 years peak for the three of them?), so the team needs to spend to capitalize on this core group, hence why I think a #2 starter (assuming Posey was serious when he said compete on pitching and defense) and a set up reliever.
It could be a longer peak if Eldridge succeeds in becoming the hitter he appears he will be, as his rise could then make up for the core’s decline, especially since Chapman is already 33 next season, and even HOF 3B have shorter careers.
Thought I would take a moment to note this historic core of Devers, Adames, Chapman. I don’t think we have ever had a trio like them. Together the trio should be in the 90 homer range. My memory is getting bad, but I don’t recall any trio of power hitters like them, maybe Bonds, Burks, and Kent, but we didn’t have these three together long.
Adding to the Hitting Core
And we have the potential to add to them. Ramos has shown the potential to reach that level, and despite his up and down season, still only 26 next season, an age at which many players take off. Matos has mostly been down than up, and when he is on, he’s even better. Unfortunately he reminds me of Schierholtz, who could be Bond like for a while (some months 1.000 OPS!) but mostly Neifi like the rest of the time.
Even less likely is Jerar Encarnacion, but in limited play, he showed a ton of potential as well. But he’s severely injury prone with a non athletic body. And Casey Schmitt has had two okay seasons in a roll, and should feel more secure as the starting 2B heading into 2026. He’s also been good when on a streak. These guys have shown a lot of power over short periods.
Jung Hoo Lee Looks Poised
Jung Hoo Lee is another I would point out, when he was on, he was really good, and Seung Ho Kim needed a season to figure out how to have a great second season, which Lee will have next season. If I had to bet on who would break out, it would be him. While Kim was very good in KBO, Lee was elite, he was first in OPS, and at a young age.
He appears to have tired out mid-season, but Andy Baggarly reminded his readers that Jung Hoo has actually missed most of the last two seasons in a row plus isn’t used to the long MLB season. And despite his struggles, he currently leads the team by a lot in doubles with 30 (Ramos next with 23) and triples with 10, (oddly Bailey is next with 3) and currently at a good .732 OPS for CF (average NL CF .690 OPS) and on up trend. He’s tied for 17th in the majors in doubles (Devers too, including his Boston stats) but only one away from 13th, and four away from 10th, and fourth in triples.
And I wonder if anyone else sees this: Lee and Devers seem to bat the same. They stick their right left off to the right when starting their stance but then move it to the usual position. Then when they swing, it is less a swing than them slashing the bat to the ball and whacking it somewhere.
Eldridge is Exciting But Unsure When
Then there is Eldridge. At 20 YO, he’s hitting a good .244/.320/.521/.841, while 7 years younger than the league. Which, while good, isn’t great in AAA, 48th in the league. Hitters who succeed in the majors usually need to be among the leaders, at least Top 10, if not Top Five, though at his young age, still amazing he’s hitting so well. He probably needs to be in the 900+ range to be ready for the majors.
Looking at the recent past (2022-2024) for AAA PCL, no 20 YO, but Corbin Carroll hit .943 OPS at age 21, CJ Abrams .871 at 21. But then there’s Luis Matos at 21 YO hitting 1.030, but in only about 5-6 weeks of games, in 2023, and we’ve seen what he has done for us since. Eldridge is certainly tantalizing, but no sure thing at the moment.
Along with his good but not great hitting in AAA, he’s still learning to play first base. And Posey has reminded us fans over and over again that he needs to learn to play first base at MLB caliber level to get promoted. Plus, the Giants under Posey have been signaling that prospects will be moved more slowly now. And all I’ve heard so far is that he is working hard and making progress on his first base defense, but I’ve not heard any report that says he’s close, so he appears to need more time. It will be interesting what Posey says about him in spring training, he has been good about foreshadowing moves (his comment about Sabean big trade for Beltran and then trading for Devers, then his comments about trade deadline followed by the three trades).
The good news overall for me is that in interviews I’ve seen this year, he has stated that he wants to be the player that the team depends upon to drive in the runs, and that he wants to join the greats of the franchise. His ambitions are as outsized as his body and achievements so far. He has certainly exhibited the skills to back up such lofty goals, and now it is a matter of him putting it all together.
Bailey is My Dark Horse
Lastly I will end with Patrick Bailey. I know this will bring chortles and derision but I still think there’s potential for much better hitting.
First of all, among the young hitters, probably only Ramos has had the most cumulative monthly success than Bailey. He has had a handful of really good months, mostly early 2023-24, mostly 800-900 OPS, but remember, as an elite defensive catcher, he probably only needs to hit 700 OPS (average NL catcher is .692) to be very good overall. And he apparently hurt himself early this season by using that torpedo bat, as his hitting has been better since it was reported that he stopped using that bat: .531 around when he stopped, .634 OPS since.
Second of all, in a great MLB article on Bailey’s elite framing abilities (he not only the best at getting strikes on pitches just outside the zone, but he’s the best in getting strikes on pitches IN the strike zone, as well), it was noted that the Giants actually made Bailey forget the entire way he knew how to catch, they totally remade him. And that likely slowed down his hitting development, since he was focused on learning how to catch again, especially the one legged stance. I should also note that framing isn’t all he’s good at, he’s also among the best in throwing out base stealers, as well.
The usual development story for catchers is that their hitting develops last. The logic there is that MLB defensive caliber catchers require more time to hone their defensive skills than other positions, because of their importance and the complexity, and then they can work on their hitting. But if Bailey had to totally relearn catching, he probably spent even less time than other catchers on their hitting. On top of that, he’s a switch hitting, and that also has a longer learning curve as well.
Well, he’s already the best in the majors in framing and throwing out base stealers, and Posey told him this season to focus on handling pitchers and being great as a catcher, which looks like he has been, Roupp has been great so far, and the staff overall as well. All that’s left going forward, I would think, is learning to hit. So I’m interested in what Posey will say about Bailey this offseason.
And I wonder if Bailey will get a long term extension deal to cover his arbitration years and a couple of his free agent years this coming spring training. Especially given how good he is defensively, but not offensively, so the price tag should be cheaper now, if the hitting develops. This is his third season, and I think next season is his first arbitration season. And that’s when the Giants tend to get such deals done, and announced near the end of spring training.
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