Travis Ishikawa Named to Topps MLB Rookie All-Star Team

As reported by Haft on sfgiants.com, Travis Ishikawa was named to Topps' MLB Rookie All-Star Team. Congrats to Ishikawa for his award, that will always be on his Topps baseball card, and a nice capper to a nice season.

That said, I like Ishikawa, but it must have been a poor year for 1B, when you compare him to the other players named:

• White Sox second baseman Chris Getz,
• Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus,
• White Sox third baseman Gordon Beckham,
• Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan,
• Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen,
• Rangers outfielder Nolan Reimold,
• Mets catcher Omir Santos,
• Braves right-hander Tommy Hanson and
• Phillies left-hander J.A. Happ

The only other "huh?" on the list for me is Omir Santos.

Not that I thought Ishikawa did poorly. As I have shown, he did pretty well after May 10, but the judging of how he did will always focus on his overall season and he didn't do that well overall because of how poorly he started the season. And most of the above did stuff that budding stars did. Ishikawa, at best, could be a competent average firstbaseman - nothing to be ashamed of, and that's good for a nice career in the majors, just ask JT Snow.

Giants Thoughts

As much as I would like to see the Giants improve offensively for sure by acquiring another hitter, the consequence of that would be the loss of opportunity for certain Giants prospects.

Getting a LF (or CF if Rowand agrees to move to LF) is the least intrusive and obstructive, as it would force Bowker to compete with Schierholtz for the starting RF position, but as nicely as both have done in AAA, neither is a slam dunk to do well if they were inserted as starters. I would still like to see how Schierholtz would do if given the chance, and I'm realistic enough to know that there's a significant possibility that he might not do well. Same for Bowker.

Getting a 1B, 2B (shifting Sanchez to 3B, and Pablo to 1B), or 3B (shifting Pablo to 1B) would be more obstructive as it would effectively end any use the Giants would have for Ishikawa or Garko, forcing them to either DFA or trade them.

Given Garko's history and right-handedness (where many Giants prospects are left-handed), plus the fact that Barnes was traded for him and Sabean said that he would not acquire anyone who is not part of the Giants future plans, I have to think that the Giants would not acquire an IF which would force out Garko (as well as possibly Ishikawa since has no position flexibility).

For that matter, there usually are a good number of available LF and while Ishikawa-Garko would probably make a good enough platoon team, only Nick Johnson would rank as high as the two of them in a platoon at 1B, and his big problem is that he is better but only when he is healthy enough to play for most of the season. Unless they are thinking of moving Bowker back to 1B, acquiring Johnson would probably result in both players being DFA, with Garko probably netting someone (though not as good as Barnes, I would bet) and Ishikawa being claimed by another team through waivers, and the Giants would only have Bowker and Jesus Guzman as 1B possibless should Johnson go down, as he has to some extent each and every season he has been a major leaguer.

For me, like for 2009, I would have preferred the Giants go and give the best prospects the chance to show what they could do, good or bad. That's not the edict that Neukom gave - he wanted to see enough improvement so that the team was at least .500 - and I understand his position as he needs to worry more about the business side and attracting fans to come see the games.

My 2010 Preference

For 2010, this would be how I would want to do things.

Obviously, the pitching rotation is the strength of the team. I would not diminish it with any trades right now. Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez is a pretty formidable rotation. For the 5th spot, I would prefer to see Pucetas get a chance to see what he can do up here, with Martinez in reserve.

The bullpen is another strength. Brian Wilson was superb as closer in 2009 and Jeremy Affeldt even more so as our main setup guy. Sergio Romo was mostly superb, except for a brief period where he was lost. Dan Runzler looks to also be in the mix for set-up duties, lessening the need to use Affeldt as much or in lower leverage situations. Merkin Valdez was OK too, and Waldis Joaquin looks like he will take a spot too. And Brandon Medders was a find. These are probably the seven we take to the season, and leaves out Justin Miller and Bobby Howry, both of whom did very well for us, but are probably gone in 2010.

The lineup, of course, is a work-in-progress. I would start with giving Posey the catching job but also signing a free agent catcher who is good defensively and hopefully a mentor too, ideally like Gregg Zaun. Brad Ausmus and Jose Molina look to be viable alternatives if Zaun really wants to stay near his hometown area of Tampa Bay.

1B would be a platoon of Ishikawa and Garko, though it won't be strictly by LHP and RHP. I would also play Garko in LF sometimes to get his offense if the LF is struggling, and Garko is the DH anytime we play against an AL team.

2B is Freddy Sanchez, with Frandsen or Rohlinger as backup.

3B is Pablo Sandoval, with Frandsen or Rohlinger as backup.

SS is Edgar Renteria with Frandsen or Rohlinger as backup.

LF is John Bowker with Torres, Garko, and Frandsen as backups.

CF is Aaron Rowand with Torres as backup.

RF is Nate Schierholtz with Bowker (someone else would take LF) and Torres as backup.

This would mean that Frandsen is DFA or traded if Rohlinger wins and Velez is DFA or traded, as there would be no space for either and neither can be sent back to the minors without exposing him to waivers. It is possible that Velez might shine in spring training and make a good case for LF, but I would just (in my mind, at least) have the above slotted and just announce my "decision" after spring training, justifying it any way that I can. It's time to see what Posey, Ishikawa, Bowker and Schierholtz can do playing pretty regularly, then adjust in May-June was needed.

I think the Giants are pretty much going to follow this route except that they will most probably pursue one of the second tier players who falls through the crack and finds himself without a team in the middle of January and willing to take a small contract in order to secure a starting position with the Giants. Then they would adjust the rest of the roster in reaction to this signing.

I think that there is also probably a good chance of them also signing a free agent starter to take the #5 rotation spot, also another guy looking for a spot and willing to take less. I would not have minded getting Brad Penny back, and who knows, he could find himself on the outside looking in and sign with the Giants for less in order to give the D-gers another slap in the face.

Happy Thanksgiving!

2008 Cy Young Discussion by Media

Chris Haft of sfgiants.com compiled the opinions of a number of media members who opined on who should win the Cy Young Award.  Obviously, I think The Kid, Tim Lincecum, deserves the award for leading in so many categories, but I had to comment on a few of the media statements, that, to me, appear to be biased:

• Paula Boivin, Arizona Republic: "Sue me. Tag me old school. Revoke my membership to the Secret Society of Sabermetricians if you must, but don't tell me Brandon Webb isn't Cy Young worthy.

  "Don't call me Homer unless it's a nod to a certain Greek poet. Watching Webb face the Colorado Rockies on Saturday night made me wonder if this current trend of devaluing a pitcher's win total could erroneously put the ace's chance for the award in jeopardy.

  "... Twenty-two victories is a perfect reason Webb should win his second Cy Young in the past three years. While others will argue for San Francisco's Tim Lincecum's superior ERA ... and strikeout total ..., Webb's ability to gauge his team's temperature and give it exactly what it needs is more important than recording an endless stream of strikeouts.

  "This is not a knock against Lincecum, who's had a phenomenal season for a lousy team. If Webb is No. 1, than Lincecum is 1A. But to say Lincecum is more worthy because he would have won more games if his team had played better is dabbling in hypotheticals."

  She complains about "dabbling in hypotheticals" but her main argument for Webb is based on his "ability to gauge his team's temperature and give it exactly what it needs."   Talk about hypotheticals!  

  Here's a fact:  if Webb's bullpen blew 5 of his wins instead of 1, as SF blew 5 of Lincecum's leads, Webb would have the exact same number of wins as Lincecum.

• Jon Heyman, SI.com: "Since [the Cy Young] award should be more closely tied to overall numbers and less to which teams make it to October, I'll give Santana an ever-so-slight edge over Sabathia, who matched Santana's late-year heroics and led his team into October, too.

  "In this remarkable year of pitching performances in the National League (what's odd is that the NL produced better individual hitting performances than the AL, as well), at least five worthy candidates will likely dot different ballots, including tiny Giants wunderkind Tim Lincecum, 22-game winner Brandon Webb and perfect shutdown closer Brad Lidge. I'd take Santana and Sabathia 1-2, but I couldn't really argue against any of the other picks, either."

  He's a former D-gers writer and he notes "Since [the Cy Young] award should be more closely tied to overall numbers and less to which teams make it to October" but then he IGNORES all of Lincecum's overall numbers and discusses how players did leading up to October.  He also belittles Lincecum by calling him "tiny".  

• Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune (picked Santana): "Santana didn't dominate the NL the way many predicted, but his 2.17 ERA after the All-Star break was enough to lower his overall ERA to 2.54, the best in the league. His 16 wins included a brilliant performance down the stretch and easily could have been 20 if the Mets had had a better bullpen. There were other strong candidates, including Phillies closer Lidge, but this three-player ballot lists Tim Lincecum second and Brandon Webb third."

  But Lincecum did dominate and had the second best ERA AND two more wins. If HIS bullpen had been better, he would have had 23! wins.   

  And while Lincecum had about equal ERA pre and post ASG (2.57 vs. 2.68) , he actually did much better in the second half by striking out more, as he struck out 135 in 129.2 IP pre-ASG but struck out 130 in only97.1 IP post-ASG, and greatly limited hits, giving up 115 in 129.2 IP pre-ASG but only 67 in 97.1 IP post-ASG, while walking about the same, 3.26 BB/9 pre-ASG vs. 3.42 BB/9 post-ASG.   He even reduced his HR/9, from 0.5 to 0.4. The only stat that really went up was his ERA.
  

• Here are Lincecum's numbers, as other media in the article noted:  

  "Just look at the gap between Lincecum and Santana in strikeouts (265 to 206) and the opponents' batting average (.221 to .232). Lincecum also allowed 12 fewer home runs than the Mets' ace (11 to 23)." - Bob Klapisch, Bergen Record
  

  "He led the Majors in strikeouts, led the NL in winning percentage and his opponents batting average (.221) led the NL and ranked second in the Majors. "  - Scott Miller, CBS Sportsline

  "In nearly every category that indicates dominance from a pitcher, Lincecum leads Webb. Earned-run average. Batting average against. Opponent OPS [on-base plus slugging percentage]. Strikeouts. Home runs allowed ..."  - Jeff Passan, Yahoo

  "Santana led the NL in VORP [value over replacement player] and WPA/LI [win probability added/leverage index] (with Lincecum second), while Lincecum led in WPA (with Johan in second) and FIP [fielding independent pitching]. Even pretending that Sabathia was a National Leaguer the whole year, he still finishes behind both Santana and Lincecum in terms of stats."  - Pizza Cutter, The Hardball Times
  

The media, as I've been documenting over the years, have been biased in one way or another, despite their veneer of objectivity.  One is a Homer (and not of the Iliad type, though perhaps the Idiot type), another who still obviously bleds Dodger Blue and uses logic to reach the wrong conclusion, and the last, well, his gut had made his choice and he was going to justify it (but just ignored the fact that Lincecum was very good both start and finish).  Looking at both Santana's and Lincecum's second half stats, I would bet that Lincecum's FIP for that is lower than Santana, the only area he was much better than Lincecum was ERA and walks.  

I think the numbers speak for themselves, including if you take into account wins but don't see wins as a huge determinant but part of the puzzle, as Lincecum was second in the league in wins while near the top in all other categories as well.  It should Tim Lincecum, Cy Young winner of 2008.

The Players Have Chosen: Lincecum

I'm late with this but wanted to report that Tim Lincecum won both the Players' Choice 2008 NL Outstanding Pitcher Award, which is awarded by the Players' Trust (which the Players' Association created, and which is voted on by players), and the Sporting News NL Pitcher of the Year (also voted on by players).   

El Lefty Malo had some good analysis at his blog regarding how this award has differed from the Cy Young winners in the past, about 20% of the time.  Hank Schulman had some info on his blog, The Splash, about how two Cy Young voters came up to him and let him know that they voted for Lincecum (and that is out of 32 voters, two writers from every team's geographic coverage).   He also shared his thoughts about the Cy Young process in an earlier post (venting about how fans shouldn't blame the official scorer), about how voters in general are "very studious and look at a player's entire body of work", which is encouraging.   

However, he admitted that there could be a lazy voter or two who looked only at Lincecum's September and mark him down, and given the number of pitchers who can legitimately lay claim for the award - Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia, and Lincecum, plus others who could draw a vote or three - the voters can be split at least four ways on the award and a vote here or there could make the difference between Lincecum winning or not.

Giants Second Straight Most Spectacular Pitcher

Been wanting to mention that our Madison Bumgarner won the Most Spectacular Pitcher Award for 2008, given to the pitcher who had the lowest ERA in the minors for that season. It was the second year in a row for the Giants, won last year by Kevin Pucetas, also at Augusta, like Bumgarner.

The amazing thing is that Bumgarner started the season out of sync because the Giants asked him to modify his mechanics, so they let him go back to his old form, and yet he still won this award because he had something like a sub-1.00 ERA after he went back. He was also one of the youngest pitchers in the league, making it all the more amazing.

I wonder if the team will give him a Green Jacket in commemoration of his award? :^)

FYI, Pucetas followed up his award winning year by hurling a 3.02 ERA at San Jose, good for second behind teammate Tim Alderson for pitchers with over 100 IP. Also, he was third for over 90 IP and fifth for over 80 IP. However, he is age 23 for the season and thus he is right at the average for the league. Thus he's good but not that good, so his future is still questionable regarding the majors, whereas Alderson, being only 19, is very good.