Wednesday, November 05, 2008

2008 Cy Young Discussion by Media

Chris Haft of sfgiants.com compiled the opinions of a number of media members who opined on who should win the Cy Young Award.  Obviously, I think The Kid, Tim Lincecum, deserves the award for leading in so many categories, but I had to comment on a few of the media statements, that, to me, appear to be biased:
  • Paula Boivin, Arizona Republic: "Sue me. Tag me old school. Revoke my membership to the Secret Society of Sabermetricians if you must, but don't tell me Brandon Webb isn't Cy Young worthy.

    "Don't call me Homer unless it's a nod to a certain Greek poet. Watching Webb face the Colorado Rockies on Saturday night made me wonder if this current trend of devaluing a pitcher's win total could erroneously put the ace's chance for the award in jeopardy.

    "... Twenty-two victories is a perfect reason Webb should win his second Cy Young in the past three years. While others will argue for San Francisco's Tim Lincecum's superior ERA ... and strikeout total ..., Webb's ability to gauge his team's temperature and give it exactly what it needs is more important than recording an endless stream of strikeouts.

    "This is not a knock against Lincecum, who's had a phenomenal season for a lousy team. If Webb is No. 1, than Lincecum is 1A. But to say Lincecum is more worthy because he would have won more games if his team had played better is dabbling in hypotheticals."

    She complains about "dabbling in hypotheticals" but her main argument for Webb is based on his "ability to gauge his team's temperature and give it exactly what it needs."   Talk about hypotheticals!  

    Here's a fact:  if Webb's bullpen blew 5 of his wins instead of 1, as SF blew 5 of Lincecum's leads, Webb would have the exact same number of wins as Lincecum.

  • Jon Heyman, SI.com: "Since [the Cy Young] award should be more closely tied to overall numbers and less to which teams make it to October, I'll give Santana an ever-so-slight edge over Sabathia, who matched Santana's late-year heroics and led his team into October, too.

    "In this remarkable year of pitching performances in the National League (what's odd is that the NL produced better individual hitting performances than the AL, as well), at least five worthy candidates will likely dot different ballots, including tiny Giants wunderkind Tim Lincecum, 22-game winner Brandon Webb and perfect shutdown closer Brad Lidge. I'd take Santana and Sabathia 1-2, but I couldn't really argue against any of the other picks, either."

    He's a former D-gers writer and he notes "Since [the Cy Young] award should be more closely tied to overall numbers and less to which teams make it to October" but then he IGNORES all of Lincecum's overall numbers and discusses how players did leading up to October.  He also belittles Lincecum by calling him "tiny".  

  • Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune (picked Santana): "Santana didn't dominate the NL the way many predicted, but his 2.17 ERA after the All-Star break was enough to lower his overall ERA to 2.54, the best in the league. His 16 wins included a brilliant performance down the stretch and easily could have been 20 if the Mets had had a better bullpen. There were other strong candidates, including Phillies closer Lidge, but this three-player ballot lists Tim Lincecum second and Brandon Webb third."

    But Lincecum did dominate and had the second best ERA AND two more wins. If HIS bullpen had been better, he would have had 23! wins.   

    And while Lincecum had about equal ERA pre and post ASG (2.57 vs. 2.68) , he actually did much better in the second half by striking out more, as he struck out 135 in 129.2 IP pre-ASG but struck out 130 in only97.1 IP post-ASG, and greatly limited hits, giving up 115 in 129.2 IP pre-ASG but only 67 in 97.1 IP post-ASG, while walking about the same, 3.26 BB/9 pre-ASG vs. 3.42 BB/9 post-ASG.   He even reduced his HR/9, from 0.5 to 0.4. The only stat that really went up was his ERA.

  • Here are Lincecum's numbers, as other media in the article noted:  

    "Just look at the gap between Lincecum and Santana in strikeouts (265 to 206) and the opponents' batting average (.221 to .232). Lincecum also allowed 12 fewer home runs than the Mets' ace (11 to 23)." - Bob Klapisch, Bergen Record

    "He led the Majors in strikeouts, led the NL in winning percentage and his opponents batting average (.221) led the NL and ranked second in the Majors. "  - Scott Miller, CBS Sportsline

    "In nearly every category that indicates dominance from a pitcher, Lincecum leads Webb. Earned-run average. Batting average against. Opponent OPS [on-base plus slugging percentage]. Strikeouts. Home runs allowed ..."  - Jeff Passan, Yahoo

    "Santana led the NL in VORP [value over replacement player] and WPA/LI [win probability added/leverage index] (with Lincecum second), while Lincecum led in WPA (with Johan in second) and FIP [fielding independent pitching]. Even pretending that Sabathia was a National Leaguer the whole year, he still finishes behind both Santana and Lincecum in terms of stats."  - Pizza Cutter, The Hardball Times

The media, as I've been documenting over the years, have been biased in one way or another, despite their veneer of objectivity.  One is a Homer (and not of the Iliad type, though perhaps the Idiot type), another who still obviously bleds Dodger Blue and uses logic to reach the wrong conclusion, and the last, well, his gut had made his choice and he was going to justify it (but just ignored the fact that Lincecum was very good both start and finish).  Looking at both Santana's and Lincecum's second half stats, I would bet that Lincecum's FIP for that is lower than Santana, the only area he was much better than Lincecum was ERA and walks.  

I think the numbers speak for themselves, including if you take into account wins but don't see wins as a huge determinant but part of the puzzle, as Lincecum was second in the league in wins while near the top in all other categories as well.  It should Tim Lincecum, Cy Young winner of 2008.

3 comments:

  1. I hope Lincecum wins the Cy. However, I think the stats show Lincecum and Santana are pretty evenly matched. They are 1-2 in most important statistical categories, with Santana having the edge in ERA, IP, VORP, WPA/LI, and Lincecum in FIP, WPA, strikeouts...with the other player #2 in each category. So I won't lose any sleep over Santana winning it. If Webb or Lidge somehow wins, though, that's a joke (or Sabathia as I believe games played is actually listed as one of the factors writers are supposed to consider in determining this award).

    ReplyDelete
  2. Now I'm pissed off. Had a nice comment and the damn software ate it up. Compared Santana to Lincecum with various rates per 9 innings and Lincecum was either basically the same or clearly superior except for BB/9 (IP/G, H/9, BB/9, K/9, K/BB; only 7.1 IP difference plus Lincecum could have gone 1-2 more innings in his relief-start)

    FIP totally better than ERA, ERA is very random, varying with situations, bullpen strength, etc. while FIP is based on core fundamental elements of the pitcher's performance.

    Plus Lincecum's 10+ K/9 is way better than Santana's 7.9 K/9, which means he contributed much more to a team that is theoretically going to the playoffs because Baseball Prospectus had a study, which I've written on a lot lastly in Hey Neukom series, that showed that the pitching staff K/9 was a key element to teams winning in the playoffs (plus closer WRXL and team defense).

    So Lincecum is still clearly better to me, but thanks for the comments, I can see that Santana probably deserves to be 2nd, did not have a clear cut choice for #2 though was leaning more towards Webb than Santana frankly. Now I see it as Lincecum, Santana, then either Webb or Sabathia.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What do you think of rumors pointing towards the Giants signing Pat Burrell and/or Raphael Furcal?

    Are there any other rumors out west that have been circulating about free agency moves?

    ReplyDelete

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