Probable Reason for Pablo's Missing Mojo: Divorce

From two different reports and a follow-up review of Hank Schulman's Twitter trail, the news has been leaked that Pablo Sandoval has apparently been going through a divorce.  Both reports are on the Yardbarker.com network, one by Bryan and the other by 22gigantes, and informed me of the news, which actually was tweeted by Schulman on Sunday. 

Here is the original Hank Schulman Tweet:

Yes. Goes deeper than that, but it's not for me to divulge. RT @eperez415: any truth to the rumor Pablo going thru divorce? Weighing on him?

Other followup tweets #1, #2, #3:

RT @knc94: I did not "stir anything up" re Sandoval. Word of his issue had leaked. I was asked direct question if it's true....

RT @knc94: ...I said it was, and that the issue goes deeper than what was public. Trying to give insight into the kid's state of mind ....

RT @knc94: ...If fans are left hanging on all the details, well, it's not for me to divluge them.

Apparently this has been weighing on Sandoval's mind. This would account for the lost of his mojo, going through such an event would definitely preoccupy anyone's mind, particularly since there is a daughter involved as well.  I know when I went through a particularly tough breakup, all I could do was think about it all the time, though I have to admit that I used work to get away from my troubles.  I guess that provides no solace or escape for Pablo. 

Bryan tied some loose ends of data together in his report.  CSN's Mychael Urban reportedly, earlier this season on his KNBR show, mentioned that Pablo was enjoying some of the perks of his fame too much, with the implication that he was enjoying and partaking in the female companionship that follows star athletes.  Perhaps that might be the reason work provides no escape for him, maybe he realizes his mistake now and work (and the women) are reminders that he made that mistake because of his work.

In any case, hopefully the All-Star break will help him to clear his mind some and get some closure so that he can concentrate on his baseball.  Not that I'm not unsympathetic to his situation, but obviously a productive Panda in our lineup, sandwiching Huff in a Panda-Posey sandwich, would be quite a boon to our offense and would boost our chances to win the NL West title.  However, given that Schulman noted that it "goes deeper than that," I fear that this could be a lost season for Pablo.

Best wishes to Pablo, on getting through this.

Just say no to Chan Ho Park

Had to post this even though my other post is barely out.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Hank Schulman tweeted that the Giants are looking at Chan Ho Park: just say "NO!" to Chan Ho Park.

His stats are merely an illusion supported by his many years of success pitching in Dodger Stadium. I don't have time to dig it up, but his road stats are horrible compared to his home, and it is even worse once you eliminate all his stats when pitching in Dodger Stadium.

I would expect that the salary he gets will reflect that success in some way. If he is signing a minor league deal and get under $1M if he makes the majors, then I would be OK with the deal, as that probably gives Bumgarner time in AAA before coming up permanently later in the season. But given the Giants prior history of signing free agents to deals that are over-priced, I would fear that they will do it with Park too.

"NO!" to Chan Ho Park unless it is very cheap.

Handy Manny: A Giant?

The rumor flying around (thanks to Alex for posting in comments) is tht the Giants are "aggressively" pursuing Manny Ramirez.  Hank Schulman gave many good reasons why that probably won't happen with this most excellent blog posts here and here.  The rumor is of a 2 year base with third year option that can vest and a fourth year team option.  Another rumor is that Boras is looking for a 5 year, $90M deal, much like the one he negotiated for Bonds in 2001.  Reportedly, they have turned down a two-year, $45M offer that with an option would be a three-year, $60M contract, from the D-gers, meaning whatever the Giants offer will have to beat those numbers and/or years.

Giants Thoughts

I thought I would address a number of points/issues I've seen regarding signing Manny.  First, though, I would note that I wouldn't sign him, mainly because I want to see the young prospects play.  However, given that the Giants have to be concerned about attracting ticket buyers, I can understand the attraction, as they can ill afford another non-competitive losing season, particularly Sabean since he's being evaluated by Neukom this season.

And that's the first thing, would the Giants pursue him?  He's the cleanup hitter we need and they inquired about him in 2007 so they had interest in him before and he has the capabilities the Giants need for their lineup.  Even with the glut of outfielders, I think Rowand or Winn are valuable enough to be easily traded, Winn in particular, to drop salary in return for a nothing much prospect or two.  However, they probably aren't willing to go more than 2 years with an option or two, making that rumor more believeable.  But if Boras wants a huge contract, then the Giants are not in the game, as they probably only want a short term deal.

Thus, second point, would the Giants work for Boras?  If Boras thinks that two years is OK because the economy will look bad for up to two years, and then hopefully pick up by the 2010 off-season, then he could backtrack on his demands.  In that way, much like Bonds did, Manny would get one last big contract at that point.  

In fact, Boras has done short-term contracts to build value and/or wait for better market conditions before:  I-Rod.  I-Rod signed a one year deal with the Marlins for the 2003 season, when the market was not going his way, then signed a long-term deal the next off-season with Detroit.  That could be another way the Giants sign Manny, for one year, maybe $20-25M but with, say, $10-15M of that deferred into future seasons, like how I-Rod did it.

Thirdly, how would Manny fit in with Neukom's  proposed "Giants Way"?  He clearly would not fit in the Giants Way, but assuming the above, he's a short-term signing whereas the "Giants Way" is a long term plan and philosophy that the team hopes to instill in their prospects first and 25 man roster eventually.  With a short 1-2 year deal, Manny would be clearly a hired gun and meanwhile, any prospect copying the worse aspects of Manny's behavior would quickly be reminded who the head honcho is:  Neukom.

All this said, this smells like Boras churning his PR machine to make the D-gers sweat that their most likely strongest competitor in 2009, the Giants, could sign Manny to sweep us into the playoffs as the last puzzle piece of the off-season to fill.  This could squeeze a few more bucks out of the D-gers and/or get them moving faster (which appears to be working, they just recently renegotiated Andruw Jones' contract to defer most of it in exchange for his release by the team; this was something that could have been done long ago, as most have known that Jones is out in LA for a long while, but just now got done, which opens up budget to boost their ability to bid for free agents).

While some say the Giants won't do this because they passed on Bonds recently, who share many negative qualities as Manny, they forget that Bonds would have been 43 in 2008, whereas Manny would "only" be 37 in 2009 and 38 in 2010.  Given how well Manny hit in 2008, he should be a relatively good risk to take, in terms of risk of offensive decline, for a two year deal.

And while the Giants are jammed packed with outfielders, Manny is a big enough upgrade that trading either Rowand or Winn should be doable.  Particularly Winn since he is a good enough hitter/runner to hit leadoff capably, and has been one of the best fielding RF in the majors in the past few years.  That would open up a starting spot as well as off-load salary in 2009.

I think for a 1-2 year contract, and around $20M per year, it would be a good deal for the Giants and put them on top for the division.  It would help the Giants lineup immensely while taking away some opportunity away from Schierholtz.    With all the pitching additions, then Manny, they should be the team to beat in the NL West.   Since most were used to dealing with Bonds, I think most can adjust to Manny, particularly since he's more of a friendly fun-loving personality relative to Bonds.   And a short deal should make him relatively well-behaved.

Regarding 4th OF playing time, unlike others, I think Roberts will not get the vet nod for more playing time, he didn't get it in 2008, why would they do that in 2009?  With more rest for Rowand, plus late defensive replacement for Manny giving some playing time to somebody, I think the Giants will give the bulk of that to Schierholtz (shifting Lewis from RF to LF), and I believe Schierholtz is the Giants backup plan should Lewis's recovery be stalled in any way.

Again, all that said, I think the D-gers see that they cannot let him get away and still appear to be the team to beat in the NL West (even with the losses they sufferred in their pitching staff) as it was he that made them an above .500 team in 2008, and thus they will eventually give him a contract long enough to get him to sign a contract with them.  Even without him, I think the Giants can contend for the NL West title because they have improved while every other team has declined in one way or another.

In particular, with a rotation where the team - if Zito and Sanchez can pitch to the potential they showed in 2008 - can win almost any game plus a bullpen sturdy enough to hold any lead given it, the Giants should be exciting enough to watch in 2009 without additional offense added.  Games will be close and exciting, with the team winning as much as they are losing, and if they make it into the playoffs, they have as good a chance of heading deep into the playoffs as anybody because of the strength of their pitching rotation top to bottom, particularly since it would add Sanchez to the bullpen.

Thanksgiving Leftovers: Sandoval, Burriss

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! I was out traveling to Disneyland and Knott's Berry Farm (or Merry Farm, for the holidays) to help my nephew celebrate his upcoming birthday, so sorry for the long stretch of no posts.

Catching up plus will discuss some stuff I found from the past that is pertinent now.

• Pablo Sandoval's Defense: Lots of people have been pushing to trade Molina and start Sandoval there as catcher until Posey is ready (if ever, of course, if that isn't clear to everybody). I ran across some info from Baseball America, from a chat not too long ago, which went over his defense at the catcher's position.
  
  From their Cal League description, they noted, "He looks considerably less comfortable on defense. Though he has arm strength and threw out 46 percent of basestealers with San Jose, his hands and lack of agility work against him at catcher. San Francisco also played him at both infield corners, but his squat body and limited athleticism don't profile well there either."
  
  From their Eastern League description, "He has a strong arm, but the scouts contacted for this list who had seen Sandoval catch didn't believe he could play there regularly in the major leagues. Two managers said Sandoval had problems just physically squatting behind the plate, while two AL scouts both used the same cliché: "He can't catch a cold." Interestingly, Sandoval is an ambidextrous thrower with nearly as much arm strength throwing lefthanded as he has righthanded. He would profile better defensively at first base if he moved there and focused on throwing with his left hand. He has seen time at both corner infield positions."
  
  So there you have it, scouts from two different leagues basically say that he's not going to make it at catcher. Maybe that will convince some people that he would be better off playing a corner infield position.
  
  On a happier note, both extoll his hitting abilities, " "He can really, really hit," an AL scout said. "I saw him again at the Futures Game, and he fit right in with the better hitters there." " PLUS "Sandoval is equally adept from either side of the plate, and he can pull the ball to hit for power or take pitches the other way. He shows a willingness to take what pitchers give him, and though he swings hard he shows good plate discipline." So I feel good about him in our lineup, but not so sure where he fits best, though I would just play him at 3B and hope for the best, as we have prospects who we can try out at 1B in 2008. He can take over 1B in 2010 if the other 1B guys don't pan out (or he might go down if he don't pan out, he's no sure thing either).
  
  I'll end with a John Manuel quote, "He just hits. If I were the Giants, I'd stick him at first base next year and leave him in the middle of the lineup. I doubt he can play third base or catcher well enough to be a big league regular, so maybe he should try throwing lefthanded more often to help him be a better defender at 1B. ... Dude can hit."


• Burriss's Defense: In new news, apparently, not only is Emmanuel Burriss not good enough defensively at SS, hence the Giants pursuit of Furcal and Renteria, but he might even be up on the trading block. On sfgiants.com, it was reported that "... insiders believe they added shortstops to their shopping list after watching Emmanuel Burriss struggle defensively in the Arizona Fall League. Burriss hit .318, but he committed 10 errors in 24 games for Scottsdale -- perhaps justifying projections that his future is at second base. "It was really out of character from what I saw in the [regular] season," said a National League scout who watched Burriss perform in the AFL. "He was all out of sync on defense." " Many fans are upset over the possible signing of a vet SS, and would rather start him at SS, but it has been known since Burriss was drafted that his best position was 2B, that his defense at SS was suspect.
  
  In addition, Andy Baggarly noted in his blog that Sabean could be thinking of including Burriss in trade proposals. That was a surprise to me, though I guess it's logical as he's one of the few Giants prospects with some success in the majors. But the Giants typically don't trade players they think are keepers, though perhaps with Frandsen and Velez around (followed by Noonan), they feel like they have enough 2B prospects that they can trade away Burriss.


• Giants Hire Scouts: Chris Haft of sfgiants.com reports that the Giants have signed four new scouts: John Castleberry, Joe Salermo, Ron Merrill and Mike Metcalf. Castleberry signed Joey Votto when with the Reds; he will become the Giants' Northeast scouting supervisor. Salermo worked in the Mets' scouting department when they drafted Scott Kazmir, Lastings Milledge and David Wright; he will taking on the role of Latin America cross-checker. I would be more confident of Salermo had they listed some Latin America finds. Still, nice addition to John Barr, who joined last off-season, he was the one who found Russell Martin for the D-gers, which boosts my confidence that Posey is going to be a good contributor to the team once he figures out catching at the major league level.


• Posey Defense: Speaking of which, Baseball America recently had a chat about the Hawaii Winter League. John Manuel noted about his adjustments to catching in the pros, "It sounds like Posey already has made some of those adjustments. There were certain pitches he was having trouble receiving, but he made some quick adjustments in two weeks in instructs and throughout the Hawaii season. He's going to hit; the power is a bit of a question, but he's going to hit. and he's athletic and has a natural feel for receiving and throwing, so he'll be able to make the adjustments we've talked about. I do think 2010 is fair for an ETA." He likes him a lot and think he'll be superior to Weiters defensively, while Weiters is superior overall because of his switch-hitting and power. BA ranked Buster the top prospect in the HWL this year.


• Kieschnick info: In that same chat, it was noted that Kieschnick has a number of tools: athletic, good arm, runs fine, hits for power, but he's never going to be a contact hitter. Some think of him as a Rob Deer, all-or-nothing kind of player, but his other tools elevate him from that typing. Still, BA ranked Roger 10th top prospect in the HWL, just ahead of the A's Chris Carter, who has been highly touted. Not too bad for a new pro adjusting to pro life, enjoying the Hawaii environment, in a league that Bobby Evans equated to roughly AA level (the AFL has been described as a AA/AAA hybrid).


• Howry Interest: Haft also reported in the above link (actually, this was the main subject...) that the Giants, according to Bob Howry's agent, has intensified their interest after Howry was one of the players who were not offered arbitration by their former teams this off-season (Renteria, another Giants target, was also non-tendered).
  
  A former Giants farm product who we traded away to the ChiSox in 1997, he has been a very effective reliever for a long while but had a pretty bad season in 2008, with a 5.35 ERA. But it appears that it might have been bad luck, as his BABIP was a horrible .354 (most pitcher's mean regression is .300) and he suffered from an elevated HR/FB of 11.7% (whereas most pitchers regress to 10%), while his strikeout rate was still a good 7.5 K/9 plus he had a stellar 1.7 BB/9 for a K/BB ratio of 4.54, leading to a FIP of 4.49, while still high for him, is not as bad. In fact, he reduced his line drive percentage as well as increased his GB/FB ratio, both normally signs of a better season.
  
  Just goes to show you that small sampling inherit with a reliever's lack of IP in any season, can made a good pitcher look bad. The key thing is that he is 35 years old, so he'll be either willing to take a lesser deal, particularly given the economic news, or a one year deal to show a return to his prior performance, or both. It is also key because it could be a sign that he's getting too old, but as I noted with all the good things about his 2008 season, it just looked like a perfect storm of bad luck with regards to BABIP and HR/FB%, and perhaps also poor bullpen support behind him, letting his runners score.


• Other Giants rumors: Chris Haft noted a number of rumors plus information in a recent article. As we all know, the Giants are looking for a power hitter to hit in the middle of the lineup, but has expanded the search to middle infielders, kicking the tires of Rafael Furcal, Edgar Renteria (apparently making an offer already and their first choice now that he won't cost a draft pick), expressed interest in Orlando Hudson (interest probably less now that he's been offered arbitration) and Juan Uribe (but that rumor died fast) and is known to have contacted the agent for Orlando Cabrera, though no preliminary talks yet.
  
  In addition, the Giants appear unlikely to sign any of the top three free agents - Sabathia, Teixeira, or Manny - but apparently the Giants have been in contact with some of them, just in case. (Probably kind of like how they asked Gary Sheffield if he would sign with us for under $10M; hey, you never know if you never ask!). But Manny's demand for over $20M per and Teixeira's demand for a 10-year deal will probably end the Giants interest in them. In addition, they have expressed interest in Casey Blake, former 3B for D-gers. But the rumors on mlbtraderumors.com is that the Twins and D-gers are his main pursuers.
  
  No surprise, but he says Jonathan Sanchez is the most likely to be traded since Lincecum and Cain are off-limits. However, he also notes that since Rios was all the Giants could get last season for Lincecum, the Giants would have to include other prospects with Sanchez to get any good hitter. Also, he noted that the Giants are as reluctant to trade Bumgarner and Alderson, as they are Cain.
  
  Lastly, one rumor is that Aaron Rowand has been brought up in trade talks, which would be unusual, if true.
• Final Arizona Fall League stats: The data is at this Baseball America page, and it shows that out of 97 hitters, Kevin Frandsen was 49th with an OPS+ of 96, which is not too bad for middle infield (8th overall for MI), hitting .331/.392/.421/.813 with 10 SB in 13 SBA (however, 6 errors playing SS) in 133 AB. Again, didn't strike out much, only 13 for 10% strikeout rate or 90% contact rate and 7 walks, very good.
  
  Emmanuel Burriss was 63rd with an OPS+ of 81, hitting .318/.370/.376/.746 with 7 SB in 9 SBA, but 10 errors playing SS in 85 AB (he was 11th overall for MI). He also didn't strike out much, only 11 for 13% strikeout rate or 87% contact rate but only 4 walks. Still, .370 OBP is nothing to sneeze at.
  
  Lastly, the guy we got in the Durham trade - Darren Ford - got very limited play and did very poorly, 44 OPS+, .190/.379/.190/.570 in 21 AB with 10 strikeouts and 6 walks. Great OBP rate but the rest just detracts too much. We might have been better off trying to get

Will the Giants Take a Bath with Sabathia?

A discussion of the Giants pursuing Sabathia broke out in the comment section for the post on Lincecum's long-term contract. A couple of good sources of info on this is El Lefty Malo and, of course, Extra Baggs. I'll try to capture most of the good points from what I've written there.

Yes! We're In the Money

This is exciting news if the Giants are serious about pursuing Sabathia. This could be a sign of what Neukom announced as his "give me a winning strategy, I'll figure out the money" strategy. I have been hoping that he dips into his rolodex of hi-tech multimillionaires who might want to become part owners of the Giants and fund additional player acquisitions.

The key is to add new investors who can help pay for additional players. That is the model that got the D-backs their World Series championship, that is the model that brings them back to competitiveness after nearly going bankrupt with their original financing plan (they basically bought their title). I want someone to buy the Giants a title.

In addition, as noted in Extra Baggs, the Giants have money from a new Comcast contract that has not been spent yet. Also, I believe that they also own a portion of the sports network that broadcasts their games, so that gives them either an asset to sell or an asset to borrow against if necessary. All these would add money into the player payroll budget.

Trading to Save Money

There is also the possibility that Sabean could help pay for some of the additional salary by trading off either Winn or Rowand (whose name has floated in rumors). I still think Rowand was a good acquisition, as long as he is healthy. There's no way a hitter goes from slugging 900+ OPS for two months then become stone cold the rest of the season without an injury involved. Plus, given his poor play overall and larger contract, the Giants would get a lot less for Rowand than we would if we traded Winn.

It's like I had noted way back in 2003, when trying to get the Giants interested in signing Vlad: do the Giants go for quality, go for the gusto, or do they go safe and mediocre. Keeping Winn and trading Rowand would be going safe and mediocre. Winn is what he is, a nice steady player; Rowand at his best can be a plus hitter and defender. Go for the ring!

No Trading of Lincecum or Cain

However, if the plan is to sign Sabathia and then trade off Lincecum or Cain to obtain a hitter, then I am not for this move. Lincecum and Cain should be our core and while I don't believe that Sabean is looking to trading either, many fans have actively talked about trading Cain. There is no way the Giants should trade Cain, think of how good the rotation would be after signing Sabathia.

Removing the #5 starters and adding Sabathia's 2007 stats results in a team ERA of 3.82 for the Giants (obviously better if you use his 2008 stats). Add on about 0.2 for unearned runs brings us to 4.0 runs per game. The team scored 4.0 runs per game in Aug/Sept and adding Furcal (as other rumors note) would push us above that. That's an above .500 team.

It could also lead the Giants to move Bumgarner and Alderson slowly up the system, and by the time they are ready to join the team, the team could have moved both Sanchez and Zito (or even Sabathia) by then, opening two spots for a rotation of Sabathia, Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and Alderson.

For example, Bumgarner moving up one level per year would mean reaching the majors in 2011-2, when Zito only has 2-3 years on his contract, which would be much easier to move at that point.

I think the Giants realize what they got in Lincecum and Cain PLUS realize that many fans have bonded with the two as Giants players, that they are fan favorites, and thus if they are serious about signing Sabathia, then they are going for creating a monster starting rotation and not, as some fans had speculated, to enable trading of a starting pitcher.

How Much?

That is the $$$ question. One thing that caught my attention was CC’s interest in getting more than Santana annually, who got $22.9M per. CC will only be 28 next season. Thus, a shorter contract but higher annual could work: 5 years plus option, maybe two, vesting based on IP over the previous 3 years, at say $26M would be $130M plus maybe a $8M buyout for a total of $138M, which would be larger than Santana's deal. He would still be only 32 his last season with us, with options for 33 and 34.

A fear of mine is also that signing Sabathia would make the Giants incapable of signing Matt Cain and/or Tim Lincecum to long term deals beyond arbitration. If that is the case, then I am not for signing Sabathia. The Giants long-term future right now revolves around Lincecum and Cain and I would protect that zealously.

How it Should Work

I think the only way this would work is to NOT trade any of the pitchers this off-season but do trade either Winn or Rowand. I still say Lincecum and Cain are untouchable. With a rotation of Sabathia, Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez, when they are all on the top of their game, we will be winning a lot of 3-2, 4-3 games, even with our offense, which was averaging 4.0 runs at year end. 2009 should still be a rebuilding year even with Sabathia, unless the young guys come through.

The hope then for 2009 is that we learn which young guys are keepers/contributors for 2010 and beyond. In particular, hopefully Sanchez can put together a full season of his roughly first half of 2008 when he was as dominating as Lincecum or Cain, and that would be a trading chip that would get us the middle of lineup hitter we need after the 2009 season ends. Sanchez should have three years of arbitration control, or even better maybe the Giants could even sign him now to a $9M contract to cover the next 4 seasons, to make him low cost too. Think something like the Volquez trade.

In addition, losing Molina, Roberts, Winn off the roster would open up more cash for signing another veteran hitter next off-season to go with this hitter we get for Sanchez. That would be another piece to the puzzle, plus hopefully other prospects would have come to the fore in 2009. Furthermore, Posey should be ready in the 2010-11 timeframe, as well as Villalona in the 2011-12 timeframe.

Playoff Success

With a rotation of Sabathia, Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez (then Alderson, then Bumgarner), our rotation would be a juggernaut for the next 5-8 seasons, per my hypothesis that having a dominating rotation is the way to playoff success (my examples being Unit/Schilling for D-backs, Koufax/Drysdale for Dodgers).

Or for an olden day example applicable for the Giants, there was Christy Mathewson single-handedly winning the Giants the 1905 World Series. While those days of single pitcher taking over are over, if we can have two aces, that could duplicate it. We should have it with Lincecum and Cain.

Adding a third ace in Sabathia would push that up exponentially, I believe. And if Sanchez can pitch like an ace over a full season, the more the merrier for us in the playoffs. Lastly, if Zito has finally figured it out - and based on how his ability to strike out batters improved greatly at the end of the 2008 season, he has - then we could have a rotation full of very good to great pitchers, each and every time they take the ball.

Offense is Not the Only Way to Improve Winning

People cry about offense, but it goes both ways. If we have a rotation which can keep the opposition scoring under 4.0 runs per game (ERA without #5 in 2008 was 4.00 basically; with Sabathia's 2007, around 3.82 ERA), then our offense in 2008, even with all the experimentation, scored 4.0 runs per game and that's over .500 right there.

Our offense should be even better in 2009 because Burriss or SS FA would beat Bocock/Vizquel, our 1B couldn't get worse, OF should be same or better if Rowand hits like he can, and Sandoval could not be worse than Castillo at 3B, and should be better. Plus, imagine how well Lewis could play with a healthy bunion!

And as I noted here in my post on Affeldt, Lincecum and Cain probably lost at least 10 wins that they had left to the bullpen to save. Saving just 6 of those 10 lost wins would bring us close to .500 right there, with 78 wins. Thus, the team was very close to .500 in 2008, just by tweaking the bullpen. So, even without Sabathia, the team is already around .500 right now, with the addition of Affeldt, Romo, and Hinshaw in the bullpen, perhaps slightly above, depending on how well Sandoval and Burriss, and perhaps Frandsen (with a dark horse of Ishikawa and Schierholtz), produces for us in the lineup.

In all, given the lack of plus hitters likely to join us, getting Sabathia would still improve the team's RA greatly and people forget that the two ways to win is to either improve RS or to reduce RA. Getting CC would reduce RA significantly.

As I noted, 2009 is a transition year still, getting CC won't help us win right now, at least not the division, but by the end of the season, we should have a better idea what our other young prospects are capable of and whether they are a part of the team going forward plus others would have played well enough that we could trade them away to get a hitter who could bat in the middle for us, the Padres got Kouzmanov from the Indians, and the Rangers got Hamilton from the Reds, we should be able to get someone similar if Sanchez can pitch well. Plus money should be freed up enough to get a free agent hitter. And hopefully Sandoval or another prospect can show that they can be a long-term power source in the middle of the lineup for the future.

Good Report on Frandsen Plus Rumors and Speculations

John Sickels, a minor league expert, wrote in his Minor League Ball blog the following about Kevin Frandsen:

Kevin Frandsen, SS, San Francisco Giants: Looks healthy which is the important thing after missing the season due to a torn achilles. Line drive bat, hits to the opposite field, hustles, won't have much home run power. Played shortstop down here and looked fine, can handle second base no problem defensively.

Still, Sickels thinks Kevin is a 2B in full-time play.

Baggarly's Back

Andy Baggarly had a juicy post on Giants rumors and he's not even at the GM meetings.

• The biggest news, as Andy notes:  Giants have interest in Rafael Furcal.  This makes sense, much like how the acquisiton of Rowand made sense:  add another strong vet to the mix.  In Rowand's case, it allowed Schierholtz to gain another year of experience at AAA, and Lewis backed up Roberts really well, with Schierholtz as the second alternative had the need arise.  In this case, this sets up SS, with Frandsen and Burriss fighting for 2B, and if both do well enough, Frandsen slides to 3B, with Sandoval sticking to 1B.  Also, as Baggarly also notes, he would lead off, allowing us to bat Lewis in the middle (though I was envisioning Burriss in the leadoff spot).  Plus we steal him from the D-gers, though they do have Ivan DeJesus and Chin-Lung Hu in the wings (however, DeJesus looks terrible in AFL according to Sickels and Hu didn't do well in majors last year).
  
  And this works even if injury prone Furcal - he's 31 next year and has had two straight injury reduced years, particularly in 2008 - continues to be injury prone, as that would allow Burriss and/or Frandsen time at SS. However, this only really works if it is a two year deal with an option, because we cannot be saddled with a gimpy shortstop for big bucks for a long time.  Particularly not into our prime period of 2010-2015 when we should have our best prospects productive and under our control.   Perhaps the option can be tied to playing time in 2009-10, like Vizquel's was.   He took a shorter deal with LA for more money so perhaps he might be willing to do that again.
  
  If the Giants are already looking this SS route, if Furcal falls through, perhaps they might go after Adam Everett who plays great defense but might give that back offensively. However, that would be an upgrade on last year because the SS position only hit .228/.295/.281/.576 overall. Everett over the past three seasons had OPS of .642, .599, and .601 (career .653, but much done at Houston's hitter's park. Still, he'll be 32 next year and with declines offensively, could continue to decline. Plus, it appears he was injured twice during the season (and missed a lot of time in 2007 as well), so perhaps he's an injury risk today.
  
• Other names include Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, but most probably not happening.
• Scott Eyre was mentioned, but apparently Eyre loves pitching for the Phillies and his home is close to their spring training complex.  It'll probably come to who offers the bigger bucks again, which is how we lost him to Chicago last time.
• Bengie Molina rumors appear to be just that, nothing substantial.   I would note here that I saw a headline that Pudge and Veritek will be hot commodities because of a short supply in the catcher's market, so the teams that lose out on them might decide to be more substantial with their offer for Molina in the future.
• Lastly, Andy speculates that Aaron Rowand could be in the mix in trade talks.  The market for CF is strong as evidenced by the Brewers picking up Mike Cameron's $10M option, and the Yankees and ChiSox are shopping for CF (Rowand being a former ChiSox, and they pursued him strongly before the Giants got him).  According to scouts that Baggarly spoke with, Rowand's defense has fallen so much that Randy Winn was actually better (and most reports I've heard is that he's poor in CF).    Still, any trade would have to have a substantial return and the Giants would need to get another righty hitter to balance things out, particularly if Schierholtz is the new RF.  Plus, he has limited trade protection.
• Oh, and Baggarly guesses that it's 75-25 that Cain remains a Giant.  I would think it would have to be greater than that, because I don't think any team is going to be willing to shell out that much, I would expect to get much more than what the D-backs got for Haren, and only the Rays, I think, would be in a good enough position to trade off that many young good players for a Cain - yet they don't really need a Cain, they have Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and soon Price.  

Shea Had Something to Say Too

John Shea had a column on the Giants too:

• Asked if Cain is untouchable, Sabean said, "Yes.  Clubs know that.  That hasn't necessarily discouraged clubs from inquiring or making suggestions of offers.  But we don't see anything out there that gives us a net gain by losing him."
• So to get offensive help, he will try other ways, including free agency and trades for pitchers not named Cain, Lincecum, or Wilson.  "We have a list of very definitive untouchables for various reasons.  After that, if someone wants to get creative and we could find a way to do something, even if it takes more than one prospect, we're willing to do it."
• Sabean will be attending the Giants' ownership group meeting in SF tonight.
• Sabean has been told to conduct business as usual, despite the tumbling economy, with the priority of adding a couple of hitters - a corner infielder and middle infielder to complement Sandoval and Burriss in the infield and of rebuilding the bullpen around Wilson.
• Sabean noted, "You never know if someone might be interested.  Having said that, we know what the competition's going to be.  Make no mistake.  It's a short list of quote, premium difference-makers.  Very short."
• Also reports that Furcal's group "indicated the Giants are interested in the shortstop as a leadoff hitter." 
• Basically Burriss will play either 2B or SS and Sandoval wil play either 1B or 3B.  
• Sabean has not met many agents but is expected to.  He was seen speaking to Craig Landis (former Giants prospect, FYI) who represents Bobby Howry (also a former Giants prospect).   Sabean appears confident he can redo his bullpen through free agency.
• He also met with the agent company representing Dunn, Burrell, Hudseon, and CC Sabathia (and here it is affirmed that the Giants are not in the market for front-line starting pitchers).  
• Sabean also noted that Frandsen has a shot at winning 2B starting job.  He's currently playing SS because Burriss's knee is banged up.
• Also, they are still hopeful that Lowry will be in the Opening Day rotation (imagine how good we would have been in 2008 with a healthy Lowry manning a rotation spot instead of Correia/Misch/etc.  That could have been at least a 10 game swing as those pitchers went a combined 3-13 in 29 starts;  Lowry going 8-8 instead would but the Giants at 77-85, only 8 games under .500 vs. 18 games under .500).  
• In addition, Kevin Pucetas could be in competition for the final rotation spot as well, which is surprising but a good surprise.  But still surprising given the word after the season that the team would not rush players as they had in 2008, as Pucetas was only in Advanced A San Jose and, frankly, Tim Alderson outpitched him there.   However, Kevin will be 24 next year and Alderson only 20, so with Bumgarner and Alderson probably only a season or two away from being in the majors, perhaps the Giants felt like they should take a good look at Pucetas now.

Giants Thoughts

I mainly looked here at what the Giants might do commented on that and tried not to put as much of my opinion into what I would do as I am posting tomorrowing a discussion of various free agents and my thoughts on whether we should pursue them or not.  Here, I am mainly an observer who gives opinion on what may or may not be happening.

I guess the main news is that Burriss and Sandoval pretty much owns two spots in the infield but which two depends on who the Giants acquired during the off-season.  And the threshold is high, the Giants are only looking at "premium difference makers".    Plus, as noted before, the Giants are looking to boost the bullpen.  And it appears that the Giants are not pursuing any outfielders, leaving a number of premium difference makers like Manny not part of the mix in the Giants plans. 

Looks like they will pursue Furcal, though how seriously, I don't know, as they shied away from Vlad Guerrero reportedly because of his bad back (though according to a well-respected Bay Area media member, Ted Robinson, a significant factor was because Vlad didn't like Felipe Alou).  He'll be OK with a short contract but not a long one.

And apparently they are eyeing Juan Uribe as a possible replacement for Rich Aurilia, depending on how cheaply they can get him from the ChiSox (which I would put in the category of dumpster-diving; not that there's anything wrong with that).   I am OK with that if he's cheap enough.  It'll be fun for the crowd to yell "Ooo-Ree-Bay" again.  

Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is pretty much dismissed in the above articles, but he used to play 1B like Dunn as well.  However, I doubt that his hometime discount will amount to enough for the Giants to sign him and his defense stinks, and Sabean loves good defensive players.   

Still, you never know what a player might do, because if the Giants are interested in Furcal, they are obviously entertaining thoughts of shelling out another $12-13+ M contract and maybe Burrell doesn't need the biggest contract and accepts one that is good enough, like Carlos Lee did with Houston.  Burrell is a South Bay native and I believe was a Giants fan growing up.  In addition, because his defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Giants might not want to have two subpar defensive player in Burrell and Sandoval at the corner infield spots.  We will see.

I don't think that the Giants will want to pursue Dunn.  I think there is enough interest on the part of other teams to put his price out of range of the Giants.  And he's not going to give any hometown discount to the Giants.

Same thinking on Mark Teixiera.  As much as he fits the Giants ideal 1B - hitter plus great defensively - he is with Boras and he will want one of the largest contracts in history.  I don't think the Giants want to go in that direction.

I am hoping the Giants are limiting contracts to the 2 years plus 3rd year option or at most a 3 years plus 4th year option variety so that the contracts are ending right around when we need to sign Cain and Lincecum to long term deals.  That would make it easier to trade them too.

I'm a bit afraid that the media is mentioning Bumgarner and Alderson in the trade talks and hope that is because Sabean did not explicitly name them and thus the writers are just taking an analytical leap there.  Sabean, as I noted, like to maintain a list put together by our coaches and scouts on, basically, who our keepers are and who we are willing to give up.  I assume both are on the keeper list.

Looks like the #5 spot will be competed for by Lowry, Pucetas, and probably Misch as well, and possibly Correia should he be re-signed (I'm betting that he's going to another team like the Padres instead, though).  

The outfield appear to be set with Lewis, Rowand, and Winn, with the outside possibility that the Giants will float Rowand's name to see what offers he gets.  As I noted before, I hope they keep him, I think he'll be better in 2009 and the team will be sorry to get rid of him if they do.

Given the hot market for catchers in free agency, I think some teams might decide that it would be better to have Bengie Molina than overpay for the two stars on the market, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Veritek, or, alternatively, he will look better when the two sign with other teams and the remaining bidders are left with no catcher.   However, I think it would take a pretty good offer to get the Giants to trade Molina, so I think he'll be with the team to start the season but could be gone by mid-season when the inevitable injury hits a contending team's catching and they need a catcher and thus might overbid for him.  Plus the Giants by that point should be back far enough that they could give up without shame and start building for the future again at mid-season.  

Lastly, Cain's not going anywhere because it is going to take a huge overbid to get him away from the Giants and that's been true for at least 3 years now, and if a team hasn't been willing to do that before, they are probably not willing to do it today, as he's pitching much as he has, at least at the surface. 

However, as I noted in another post, Cain greatly improved in 2008 because he actually pitched well on the road, whereas previously he only pitched well in SF and poorly on the road.  He should be ready to take off in terms of production as a starting pitcher in 2009, I would bet.

Conspiracy Theory: Rockies Playing Ball Game

The legend of the Rockies humidor for baseballs is known by most: able to leap outfield fences in a single bound, the previously "super" baseball in Colorado's thin air is rendered mortal by the kryptonite that is the humidor. Once the team started using the humidor, scoring was not as rampant in the Rockies homepark. However, this was not an absolute, scoring is still on the high side there, just not as bad.

Because of this seemingly random nature, rumors have run through the grapevine since this humidor was put into play that the Rockies would selectively use (or not use) the humidor balls depending on the situation, in order to better their chances of winning, but nothing concrete had ever been exposed that I know of, nor did I seriously think that they would do something like that. Then again, no one ever though a football team would secretly videotape their opponents like the New England Patriots did, which is why I've discounted their Super Bowls wins.

But after this recent trip through the thin air, I have to wonder. Following, for your conspiratorial pleasure, is what I saw:

Game 1

Misch vs. Cook. Misch relies on his breaking pitches extensively to be effective, and he's been very erratic even when on. The thin air and pre-humidor balls essentially makes it near impossible to throw breaking pitches. Cook is known of his sinker and as one of the few (only) pitcher who is not reliant on the fastball to actually pitch well in Colorado.

If I were to fix the game in the Rockies favor, I would use non-humidor balls and try to win in an offensive blowout because the Rockies have more offensive weapons than the Giants and Cook is a better pitcher than Misch is.

Actual result: 10-5 win for the Rockies, their offensive wins the day.

Game 2

Lincecum vs. Jimenez. Lincecum has been dialed in all season and Jimenez has been totally undialed all season. Lincecum isn't helped or hindered much by thin air, but Jimenez would be helped greatly by using humidor balls.

If I were to fix the game in the Rockies favor, I would use humidor balls and try to luck into a win in a pitcher's duel, because either way, Lincecum is probably shutting them down, hopefully the Giants weak offense would be shut down by Jimenez with the help of humidor balls.

Actual result: 1-0 win for the Rockies, in a pitcher's duel, they win in the bottom of the ninth on a blown play at home where they should have been out had the ball been on the screws to Molina, but he was forced to reach for the throw and then try for the tag, bang-bang play, we lose.

FIRST GAME EVER IN THE HISTORY OF THE PARK WHERE BOTH TEAMS WERE SHUT OUT INTO THE 9TH INNING. FIRST! In 15 seasons and 65 games, and I believe the farthest any other game had gotten was into the 7th. And the way hitters weren't hitting, who knows how long the game would have continued if the runner was out. It could have been legendary, mark my words.

Game 3

Sanchez vs. Reynolds. Sanchez has been aces for most of the season and Reynolds has not, much like the game 2 matchup of this series. However, unlike Lincecum, Sanchez would be totally hindered by a pre-humidor ball because he relies on his breaking pitches, while Reynolds was bad either way.

If I were to fix the game, I would use pre-humidor balls in hopes of outslugging the Giants, like in game 1, though this time Sanchez is better than Reynolds, so you would need some luck too, to win.

Actual Result: Giants win in a slugfest, 10-7. The work their way back to 8-7, back one run, but their bullpen blows it and give up 2 more runs, making it 10-7. Giants bullpen has been superb for the most part in the series and helped win this game by shutting D'Rocks down when they needed to.

If you just look at the overall numbers, the Giants don't look like much of an offensive team, but they have had a number of games where they scored runs in bunches. That is what happens when you rely on young players, some games they don't get it and the offense suffers, but on the days they are locked in, your offense does great. We saw that last year, we have seen it this year, we will see it next year.

Sanchez on Pitching in Colorado

Here are some key quotes from Sanchez (underlining what I've said before about getting different looks from each reporter):

• Mercury's Baggarly usual superlative reporting: "Nothing was working for me. I was wild all day. My ball wasn't moving at all. My slider was spinning, my sinker didn't work and my fastball was up" Holm told Sanchez to throw it over the plate and say a little prayer. However, Bochy thought "he had pretty good stuff," so there was that.
• Chronicle's Schulman very fine reporting: He got [the win] even though "nothing worked for me. I'd go 2-2, 3-1, 3-0. That's how it was all day. The ball wasn't moving. The slider was spinning. The sinker didn't work. I got the win because the team did what it had to do.
• sfgiants.com's Haft: "I didn't have my stuff today. Nothing was working for me. I had no movement at all."
• AP's Pat Graham (I wonder where Janie McCauley is, she usually handles Giants games): "I didn't have my stuff today. My ball wasn't moving."

That's funny, I thought using humidor balls was suppose to alleviate this type of situation. Did someone accidently turn off the humidor? Did someone accidentally pull out the plug, like Marc Anthony did when he thought that Pussyfoot was in the mixing bowl (classic Looney Tunes cartoon)? Grab the balls from the wrong bag? ("Oh, those are from the new ball bag when I grabbed some balls up? Sorry!"

And I can understand if one or two balls, or even a small percentage, for whatever reason, just didn't take to the humidor - for whatever reason - and played like a regular ball would, but this was all game long for Sanchez. He threw over 100 pitches over 5 IP, just enough to get the win. Luckily the Giants bullpen is built more on fastballs this season - which is not affected by the thin dry air - and they shut down the D-Rocks the rest of the game, plus the offense picked up 2 key insurance runs. It would have been much different if D-Rocks were only 1 run back when the Giants bullpen got in trouble.

Giants Old News: No McPherson

As I noted before, I had written a bunch of stuff, so pardon the staleness of the news, but I wanted to get them out nonetheless. I usually make it one big post, but I think I'm going to post them individually.

Some news during the holidays on the Giants:

• Giants and McPherson go their own way: not too surprising when his agent is Scott Boras, money is the main objective, opportunity to be the future long-term 3B is secondary since there might be opportunities elsewhere. But the longer he's out, there's a chance Boras might come back to the Giants, hat in hand, for McPherson; I just read that Cory Patterson, another Boras client, had priced himself out with the Orioles, but now that starting OF opportunities are drying up, they have come back to the Orioles to see what they can get, so he might try that same tactic for McPherson soon, spring training will be starting pretty soon.
• Giants kicking tires with Tony Clark: not too surprising, Clark is a part-time 1B and so will be paid like one, he has power, with the idea of Ortmeier getting a chance at 1B but Clark is a nice (in Giants mind) fallback/replacement should Orty fail. I wouldn't be thrilled by such a move, but as long as he doesn't cost much money it's a "meh" type of move, nothing exciting either way. I would rather the Giants just start bringing up their 1B prospects in the minors, any of the old guys from AAA last year still around (Leone, McClain) or even give Ishikawa a final chance, his options are up in 2008, may as well see what he can do with an extended chance, his defense is great, see if he can survive up here and deliver some power than rely on an old vet who will cost money to play for us. In any case, I think this is probably a red herring as it's source was Clark's agent talking about places Clark could play at: "Yeah, he'll fit right in there, just give us a nice two year contract..."
• Giants kicking tires with Kent Benson: not too surprising, Benson could be a buy low, sell high opportunity, but I think the main reason the Giants were there was because Sabean's new advisor, Ron Shueler (former GM of ChiSox), makes his home nearby to where Benson recently pitched in front of scouts to generate interest in his services. I assume the thinking is that he might be an option for the rotation should the Giants be able to trade off Lowry and/or Sanchez for a good hitter, but, again, why not give Correia and Misch the opportunity to start? Plus, by the May/June time period, if either is failing at starting, there's always Hennessey to take a spot, plus there should be a minor leaguer or two who show enough promise to come up and get a shot. Nick Pereira has been touted by some fantasy analysts as a pitcher who would get a chance to start with the Giants in 2007, so he's a possibility for 2008 as well. Henry Sosa has a blazing fastball, he could rise up fast if he can harness his heater; Sanchez made just as fast an ascent, if not faster.
• Fear and Loathing, Part Feliz: the longer the Giants are without a 3B, the more I worry that they will resign Feliz. Not that getting him would be the end of the world forecasted by some fans, but I really want Durham to get a chance to try to make himself valuable enough to trade, and that would mean Frandsen gets moved to 3B initially (notice that Aurilia's name has not popped up once as an option) to start, with the plan being to either DFA Durham or trade Durham by or before mid-season, install Frandsen as starting 2B, and either start Aurilia at 3B or obtain a 3B prospect by then. Plus the thought of him getting a raise or, eww, a two year contract, is enough to make me, well, you know....

Buncha Signings

Wow, what a flurry of signings:

• Ray Durham: 2 years, $14.5M ($7M/$7.5M plus $25K if reach 450 PA)
• Dave Roberts: 3 years, $18M ($5M/$6.5M/$6.5M)
• Rich Aurilia: 2 years, $8M ($3.5M/$4.5M plus $250K at 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 PA)
• Pedro Feliz: 1 year, $5.1M ($5.1M plus up to $500K performance bonuses)
• Bengie Molina: 3 years, $14.5M (not confirmed, backloaded, maybe $4M/$5M/$5.5M)

Pedro Feliz

About Feliz, to quote Herman Munster: Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn!

There is not much more than I can say but that. I was hoping that Richie was the new 3B and view this signing much in line with how I felt when the Giants signed Neifi Perez after I thought we had dodged a bullet by releasing him. I assume that the Giants will go with Aurilia if Felilz starts stalling out like he did last season, because he was going pretty well early on, but then had this really bad streak, which one article attributed to him coming into the season with more weight than he should have. Hence all the talk this off-season about him working on his fitness - to last longer and stronger into the season - and, to give us a laugh, he is working on his hitting as well.

All I can say is what the heck took him so long to figure that one out? He's been hitting like this ALL his career! He should have been working on this the moment he became a major leaguer, if he really appreciates his career and his salary. My only hope right now is that he hits so well early on that we can trade him mid-season for prospects and install Aurilia at 3B (assuming he starts as utility guy) and Frandsen as utility guy.

The Others

I like the other deals, though. As much as people carp on Aurilia as a 1B, clearly the Giants are not settling for him at 1B, he has been told that he will be playing all around the infield, though probably getting a lot at 1B (implying a platoon situation there where he hits against LHP there). In addition, the Giants are still looking at deals for 1B, whether Sexson, Burrell, or others.

Clearly, though, his hitting has been boosted the past couple of years by hitting in Cincinnati. Last year his big boost was his stellar hitting on the road, which he had not done in previous years, so that would be an area of concern in terms of falling back to the mean. But if he is not the full-time starter at 1B, he probably will be more than OK, taking starts from Durham, perhaps giving Vizquel some extra rest, probably giving Feliz 20-30 games rest there, since he clearly tired out, and perhaps getting 40 starts at 1B in a platoon with lefty there or less if a big trade is made for Burrell or Sexson, for example.

Roberts is still a good contract even after taking into account that he normally do not hit against LHP, as he has been platooned before. I like him at the top of the order, probably our best leadoff hitter since Brett Butler. I like his high number of SB and I especially like his high success rate, so he is not only aggressive but effective. He might be able to give some tips to Winn to bring up his success rate, so he could help out there for us.

Durham is a great salary given all the rumors of him getting $20M over 2 years or getting 3 year contracts, plus all the crazy salaries going to other players. Of course, what probably happened, probably much like Roberts with his platoon and injury problems, Durham also has been having injury problems as well, so his salary reflects the number of games per year one can expect from him, based on the past 3-4 years of experience. Which is he misses about 40 starts per season (he boosts his games played by PHing the past couple of years). Thus, his $7M is essentially a $10M contract if he were playing 150+ games per year; same with Roberts.

Payroll Impact

Adding up the first year salaries above, they work out to $24.6M. Based on the $45M figure that was mentioned in one newspaper, that leaves $20.4M left to spend on Bonds for LF, 1B upgrade over Aurilia, starting pitcher, and relief pitcher. That really only works if Bonds gets under $10M, as $10.4M seems a bit too low to get a 1B, SP, and RP, especially since there is talk that the Giants are pursuing Ted Lilly (ugh!) who is looking to get 4 years at $10M per season.

Trade Rumors

Besides the Ted Lilly rumor, there are a few running the rounds whereby the Giants either get Manny Ramirez or Richie Sexson and lose Noah Lowry, plus probably prospects, to Boston and either Seattle or Washington. They seem too ludicrous to even repeat - I think I am not too blind about Lowry's value, I'm not that much of a homer, I don't think, and to give up a cheap but young and good player like Lowry to take on an overpaid, old and declining hitter is not the right move.

If we trade Lowry, we should get a young player, like Baldelli, Crawford, even Vernon Wells, not old and expensive players. The trades that have been mentioned have been highway robbery type of situations where we give up young and cheap and they are being kind to give us a good hitter. If those deals are done without either cash or young prospects leaving their hands and into ours, we are being robbed blind unless there is something wrong with Lowry that we don't know about.

Another rumor I saw mentioned that the Giants were inquiring about Vernon Wells. I think I can live with that trade if the Giants are pretty damn sure that they can sign Wells to a contract and that he would be happy coming to SF, I don't want another A.J. Pierzitski situation happening. Wells would not be the greatest to get, there are players I would prefer more, but those players are generally untouchables, and he might be the best young player available in trade at the moment.

The Giants have also been saying that any and all of the trade rumors does not mean that the Giants don't want Bonds back. However, I don't see how they can do the trade and still get Bonds, as Manny only plays LF and they don't have enough money to cover Bonds and Sexson unless another team is giving up a lot of money to us in the trade, which would make losing Lowry more palatable for me, as that would even things up in my opinion.