As reported by various outlets (Mercury's Pavlovic reports on Romo and Scutaro), Romo's return meant the Giants needed to clear a spot on the 40-man, and the one getting the axe was Angel Villalona, who was outrighted to the minors. Not sure of the consequences (seems to imply he was sent to minors with no recourse, nor danger of being claimed; tried to research, could not work out legalese) regarding Giants control of AnVil.
In addition, Scutaro finally got the surgery to fuse his spine, which will make life more comfortable for him going forward, but unfortunately, his career is now in severe doubt, as fusion generally has meant the end of an athletes career, from what I remember about the news report speculating on this mid-season. With a 4-6 month recovery period, at which point they can then start to evaluate whether he can even return to baseball, and the past prior record, it does seem like the end of Scutaro's baseball career.
ogc thoughts
As I noted in my other post, I'm happy to have Romo back. I had thought (wrongly) that his family might have pressured him to sign up with LA (OK, maybe not wrongly, but not as strongly as I had speculated), but he said the right things in the press conference today about returning to his gang of four (Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez), his band of brothers, and that he can't imagine not working with them or this organization that gave him his big break. He noted that he got other offers, including possibility of closing, but noted that the way he views it, anytime he's coming in, he's closing anyway, it's pressure time. Of course, we'll never know exactly what went down exactly, but he did note disappointment of not getting a third year, but is happy to make money that will take care of his family.
I was surprised that AnVil was outrighted, though not totally. He had a poor year in the upper minors and that is usually a deathknell to a prospect's career as he gets up there in experience, but I still thought that Heston and Parker would have been lower on the totem pole. I have a feeling once I learn more about the technical aspects of what it meant to outright him will help explain why him and not others. I still have hope for him, but right now it is looking like Duffy will start at 3B in AAA and Duvall start at 1B, so AnVil will probably be in Richmond again.
Thanks for the Rain Dance Marco
Looks like Scutaro's career, at minimum with the Giants but most probably his career, is over, so I would like to once again thank him for his contributions to the 2012 Championship. You can't say this all the time, but truly, without him being "Blockbuster" (his nickname with his teammates at the time, denoting how he was the blockbuster trade for the Giants given how well he hit for them), we don't win that championship. Invaluable component.
Some people like to point out that his contract was a waste (much like Huff's), but, really, there were no better alternatives at that time who looked like better replacements, but players notice when teams take care of their own or if they screw them in the back at the first chance (cough, Miami), and a team with a reputation of dumping their players (as the Niners got) will find it harder to keep their players, I think, or attract other players.
It's funny, but in our country, Wall Street is excoriated for being all about money and maximizing by dehumanizing the regular population, but I find that a lot of fans are like that as well. As well, they don't think about the consequences.
Sure, the Giants could have counted their lucky stars that Huff played up to his potential for us in 2010, and kicked him to the curb once we got that great production from him without paying him much. But he produced 5.6 rWAR for us, roughly around $23M per metrics, and that is exactly what we paid him, which is a great return on any free agent because the sad fact is that most do not even break even, most fall very short. And had he been dumped, who would the Giants have signed instead who could even dream of producing 5-6 WAR in 2011 without asking for a Brinks Truck to back up to their house? Fans would have been mad at the Giants.
Same with Scutaro. He produced 4.1 rWAR, or roughly $21M and that is roughly what we paid him during his time with us. And it was not like it was a massive overpay over the market, the Cards reportedly offered him roughly the same money, but the Giants went to three years with a little more money. And Scutaro produced a lot while playing for us in 2012, had his health held up, he would have been in the 2.5-3.0 WAR range.
If he had produced 2+ WAR in 2014 and 2015, his contract would have been considered one of the better free agent signings by the Giants, as he would have been paid under half of what he produced. As it was, the team roughly broke even, overall, and we ended up with a championship because of his contributions.
People can be very hard-nosed sometimes, I don't see why they would begrudge him his contract, given what he produced, and in this case, it was not his fault that his body broke down (I would point my finger at Holliday's slide starting the bad process in the spine). Or that Huff's mind broke down from the pressure of his contract.
So thanks Marco, and I hope you have as healthy and comfortable a life as you can, and thanks again for the contributions, especially towards winning the championship.
Peavy Needs a Spot Too
When Peavy is signed soon, he will need a 40-man spot as well. As I noted, Heston and Parker are probably the next ones to go when a spot is needed, but with the announcement of Scutaro's surgery, they most probably will waiver him instead, knowing that no team will pick up his contract, knowing that he won't be back until mid-season at the earliest, and possibly never again.
Showing posts with label Angel Villalona. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Angel Villalona. Show all posts
Monday, December 22, 2014
Friday, August 30, 2013
Your 2013 Giants: Prospects Named to AFL Roster
As reported by MLB.com, the Giants are sending the following prospects to the AFL:
- Kyle Crick, RHP
- Andrew Susac, C
- Adalberto Mejia, LHP
- Jarrett Parker, OF
- Cody Hall, RHP
- Angel Villalona, 1B
Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Viva La Villalona!
Angel Villalona is a controversial prospect in many circles because of his sordid past, but at some point you have to accept that the wheels of justice have turned and he was only convicted by public opinion.
More importantly for Giants fans today, he once was a top prospect in all of baseball, #33 pre-2008 and #44 pre-2009 per Baseball America (baseball-reference.com) which is rarified heights for any prospect, and especially so for a prospect who was only 17-18 YO at that time. But his time away from the game has to have made him very very rusty, or so the theory goes, so I thought it would be interesting to see how he did in April. For if he can return to his prior expected goodness, that is a huge boost to the Giants overall farm system, as it is rated by most prospect experts. And his development will have implications for what the Giants might do at 1B (Angel's current position) and 3B (the position Angel wants to return to, but hasn't played full time since his first pro season, but supposedly has been practicing there regularly; however, he didn't really lose any weight during his time off and his size, at the moment, probably means he's a 1B long-term).
More importantly for Giants fans today, he once was a top prospect in all of baseball, #33 pre-2008 and #44 pre-2009 per Baseball America (baseball-reference.com) which is rarified heights for any prospect, and especially so for a prospect who was only 17-18 YO at that time. But his time away from the game has to have made him very very rusty, or so the theory goes, so I thought it would be interesting to see how he did in April. For if he can return to his prior expected goodness, that is a huge boost to the Giants overall farm system, as it is rated by most prospect experts. And his development will have implications for what the Giants might do at 1B (Angel's current position) and 3B (the position Angel wants to return to, but hasn't played full time since his first pro season, but supposedly has been practicing there regularly; however, he didn't really lose any weight during his time off and his size, at the moment, probably means he's a 1B long-term).
Thursday, February 07, 2013
Angel in the Infield: Visa Approved
According to a Baseball America article (saw the link on DrB's in the comments), Angel Villalona gets his work visa approved and will be in camp with the Giants during spring training. He'll be joining the team next week.
ogc thoughts
Most reports were that Villalona would be stuck in his native DR. Or rather, most speculation. BA in their Giants prospect Q&A recently, noted that they had not heard anything new and doubt that "he will ever be allowed back in the U.S." (got that from DrB's report on the Q&A). His getting the visa makes more sense to me, the State Department can only put up so many legal road blocks when Angel was not convicted of anything.
Not that he was necessarily innocent either, we'll never know exactly what happened that terrible night, but the victim's family has moved on with their settlement, the district attorney decided that there was not enough evidence to hold him any longer, and now the State Department has granted him his visa. Nobody can prove otherwise and for all we know, the victim's family squeezed Villalona because he was the only rich person in the fracas. It definitely will be a shadow on the rest of his career and something brought up anytime he is in the news.
That said, it made perfect sense that the State Department would make it hard for him to return, and they threw the best and apparently only pitch that they had: whether he was an elite player which would make him eligible to come into the U.S. on a work visa. And he had no proof and after sitting around in jail for so long and/or without competitive play, he had to be rusty and some players never come back from that, particularly players who had problems keeping his weight off as Angel did.
So he played in the Dominican Summer League last season - hard to remember, but he's still only 22 YO for this season - and he hit .303/.430/.497/.927, knocking 7 homers in 44 games. Admittedly, the competition there was not minor league caliber, but he could at least say that he was among the elite there, making it harder for anyone to make further objections to him returning to the U.S. He was 8th in OPS, though as a 21 YO last season, he was clearly among the oldest guys playing there plus he had two years of US minor league ball under his belt, so he should have been expected to dominate there. He was only 15th in OBP and 10th in SLG, but there were few who were good in both, leading to 8th in OPS. It helped that he was 7th in homers, and that was also because he played about 30% less games than other players. Had he played at that rate for the 66 or so games that the top players played, he would have been first or second instead. This dominance made sense because most reports were that he worked out while sidelined with his legal problems and got himself into better shape.
And that is why he was such a prized prospect and highly rated: he could hit the long ball. At 17 YO, in the Sally, where pitchers had 5 more years of age and experience on average over him, and in his first full season U.S. league, he hit 17 homers and that was good for a tie for 12th in the league. One more homer and he would have been tied for 8th, two more tied for 5th. Others near his age, 18 YO: Jesus Montero, 17 homers; Freddie Freeman, 18 homers; Matt Dominguez, 18 homers; Michael Burgess (19 YO), 18 homers.
He was also tied for 12th in doubles with 29. That is usually a precursor for more homers as he got older and more developed. Montero had 34 and Freeman 33, but they both had roughly 10% more AB, so basically at the same rate of production as Montero and Freeman. Where he lacked relative to them was his poor batting average, he just struck out a lot more than they did, hence why they are better. Still, he was close to them. And the projections back then were talking about him having 30-40 homerun power.
He did not hit that well in SJ, but his 9 homers tied him for 42nd in the Cal League, impressive since he only played 74 games and most of the top prospects there played around 130 games, almost double. If he had a similar number of ABs as the leaders did, he would have had 15 homers, which would have been good for tie at 14th, and that is great because he was only 18 YO and there was not even one teenager in the leader list other than him. All the other hitters were mostly 4 years older than him, like a certain Buster Posey, who had 13 homers in similar AB. He has hit for power everywhere he has gone for significant amount of playing time.
It will be interesting where the Giants eventually place him in the farm system. He was last in San Jose, and he hit OK there for an 18 YO, hitting .267/.306/.397/.704 with 9 HR in an injury marred season, limiting him to 74 games. But since he's been rusty and out of competitive play, they might let him go to Augusta, to get acclimated again to full-season minor league baseball, then let his bat decide whether he needs to move up or not. In any case, he was once a Top 100 ranked prospect, even though he was so young and inexperienced, so if he can return with any resemblance to the prospect he was before, that would be a huge boost to our farm system.
In addition, despite his weight issues, reports were that he worked hard at continuing to take fielding at 3B even while the Giants played him at 1B, and that he worked off a lot of that "baby-fat" that he carried when he was in San Jose, while he was incarcerated. If he really can play 3B, that would give us another home run hitting 3B in the farm system and with Duvall around, between the two of them would make the future of 3B look pretty good for us, as we could go with Posey once Sandoval needs to move to 1B, or if either makes it all the way up, they could take over at that point at 3B. And even if he stays at 1B, Belt could always move to LF, where he played previously in high school and did OK there in the majors in very limited play.
Options are always good, especially when they are blue chip prospects, as Angel once was and might be again for the Giants. It will be a catch-up season for him, a make good season, as while he is still young, 22 YO is getting old for an elite prospect, and he will need to prove that he's back from his injury and his long layoff, before he will get ranked high again, if ever. I think that he has the skills, but does he have the will? Can he keep the weight off (enough)?
He also has a huge negative that has ruined the prospect ranking of other prodigious homerun hitters: he strikes out a heck of a lot. He has also walked a lot too, but his strikeout rates need to go down a lot. While it was partially explainable by the fact that he was facing pitchers with 4-5 years or more experience and age over him, that was no longer true last summer, in fact, he was the old guy in the league, and he still struck out 40 times in only 155 AB (only 74% contact rate; 85%+ for good hitters). But he also walked a lot too, boosting his OK .303 average to a great .430 OBP. This is something he will need to solved, not fully but enough, before he ever wears a major league uniform.
ogc thoughts
Most reports were that Villalona would be stuck in his native DR. Or rather, most speculation. BA in their Giants prospect Q&A recently, noted that they had not heard anything new and doubt that "he will ever be allowed back in the U.S." (got that from DrB's report on the Q&A). His getting the visa makes more sense to me, the State Department can only put up so many legal road blocks when Angel was not convicted of anything.
Not that he was necessarily innocent either, we'll never know exactly what happened that terrible night, but the victim's family has moved on with their settlement, the district attorney decided that there was not enough evidence to hold him any longer, and now the State Department has granted him his visa. Nobody can prove otherwise and for all we know, the victim's family squeezed Villalona because he was the only rich person in the fracas. It definitely will be a shadow on the rest of his career and something brought up anytime he is in the news.
That said, it made perfect sense that the State Department would make it hard for him to return, and they threw the best and apparently only pitch that they had: whether he was an elite player which would make him eligible to come into the U.S. on a work visa. And he had no proof and after sitting around in jail for so long and/or without competitive play, he had to be rusty and some players never come back from that, particularly players who had problems keeping his weight off as Angel did.
So he played in the Dominican Summer League last season - hard to remember, but he's still only 22 YO for this season - and he hit .303/.430/.497/.927, knocking 7 homers in 44 games. Admittedly, the competition there was not minor league caliber, but he could at least say that he was among the elite there, making it harder for anyone to make further objections to him returning to the U.S. He was 8th in OPS, though as a 21 YO last season, he was clearly among the oldest guys playing there plus he had two years of US minor league ball under his belt, so he should have been expected to dominate there. He was only 15th in OBP and 10th in SLG, but there were few who were good in both, leading to 8th in OPS. It helped that he was 7th in homers, and that was also because he played about 30% less games than other players. Had he played at that rate for the 66 or so games that the top players played, he would have been first or second instead. This dominance made sense because most reports were that he worked out while sidelined with his legal problems and got himself into better shape.
And that is why he was such a prized prospect and highly rated: he could hit the long ball. At 17 YO, in the Sally, where pitchers had 5 more years of age and experience on average over him, and in his first full season U.S. league, he hit 17 homers and that was good for a tie for 12th in the league. One more homer and he would have been tied for 8th, two more tied for 5th. Others near his age, 18 YO: Jesus Montero, 17 homers; Freddie Freeman, 18 homers; Matt Dominguez, 18 homers; Michael Burgess (19 YO), 18 homers.
He was also tied for 12th in doubles with 29. That is usually a precursor for more homers as he got older and more developed. Montero had 34 and Freeman 33, but they both had roughly 10% more AB, so basically at the same rate of production as Montero and Freeman. Where he lacked relative to them was his poor batting average, he just struck out a lot more than they did, hence why they are better. Still, he was close to them. And the projections back then were talking about him having 30-40 homerun power.
He did not hit that well in SJ, but his 9 homers tied him for 42nd in the Cal League, impressive since he only played 74 games and most of the top prospects there played around 130 games, almost double. If he had a similar number of ABs as the leaders did, he would have had 15 homers, which would have been good for tie at 14th, and that is great because he was only 18 YO and there was not even one teenager in the leader list other than him. All the other hitters were mostly 4 years older than him, like a certain Buster Posey, who had 13 homers in similar AB. He has hit for power everywhere he has gone for significant amount of playing time.
It will be interesting where the Giants eventually place him in the farm system. He was last in San Jose, and he hit OK there for an 18 YO, hitting .267/.306/.397/.704 with 9 HR in an injury marred season, limiting him to 74 games. But since he's been rusty and out of competitive play, they might let him go to Augusta, to get acclimated again to full-season minor league baseball, then let his bat decide whether he needs to move up or not. In any case, he was once a Top 100 ranked prospect, even though he was so young and inexperienced, so if he can return with any resemblance to the prospect he was before, that would be a huge boost to our farm system.
In addition, despite his weight issues, reports were that he worked hard at continuing to take fielding at 3B even while the Giants played him at 1B, and that he worked off a lot of that "baby-fat" that he carried when he was in San Jose, while he was incarcerated. If he really can play 3B, that would give us another home run hitting 3B in the farm system and with Duvall around, between the two of them would make the future of 3B look pretty good for us, as we could go with Posey once Sandoval needs to move to 1B, or if either makes it all the way up, they could take over at that point at 3B. And even if he stays at 1B, Belt could always move to LF, where he played previously in high school and did OK there in the majors in very limited play.
Options are always good, especially when they are blue chip prospects, as Angel once was and might be again for the Giants. It will be a catch-up season for him, a make good season, as while he is still young, 22 YO is getting old for an elite prospect, and he will need to prove that he's back from his injury and his long layoff, before he will get ranked high again, if ever. I think that he has the skills, but does he have the will? Can he keep the weight off (enough)?
He also has a huge negative that has ruined the prospect ranking of other prodigious homerun hitters: he strikes out a heck of a lot. He has also walked a lot too, but his strikeout rates need to go down a lot. While it was partially explainable by the fact that he was facing pitchers with 4-5 years or more experience and age over him, that was no longer true last summer, in fact, he was the old guy in the league, and he still struck out 40 times in only 155 AB (only 74% contact rate; 85%+ for good hitters). But he also walked a lot too, boosting his OK .303 average to a great .430 OBP. This is something he will need to solved, not fully but enough, before he ever wears a major league uniform.
Friday, June 15, 2012
Angel on the Field
Baseball America reports that Angel Villalona returns to baseball but in the DSL, not in the U.S., as U.S. immigration continues to delay issuing him a work visa that would allow him to enter the U.S. But at least he got into his first professional game in three years and he got a knock, going 1 for 4 with a strikeout in the Dominican Summer League. Now 21 years old, he was recently placed on their 40-man roster so that other teams could not draft him via the Rule 5 draft.
While it might be unlikely that another team would have selected him, as BA noted, I would think that there might be another team willing to take a flier for just, what, $100K, to hold who was once a Top 40 prospect in all of baseball, like a rebuilding team like Houston, who is probably finding it hard to fill their 40 man roster and thus could hold onto Angel's rights for a couple of years, while he tries to get back into the U.S.
While it might be unlikely that another team would have selected him, as BA noted, I would think that there might be another team willing to take a flier for just, what, $100K, to hold who was once a Top 40 prospect in all of baseball, like a rebuilding team like Houston, who is probably finding it hard to fill their 40 man roster and thus could hold onto Angel's rights for a couple of years, while he tries to get back into the U.S.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Villalona's Nearly Here: Got Work Visa
Andy Baggarly of the Merc reported here that Villalona got his work visa and will be able to return to the U.S. to play ball for the Giants. Here are some key excerpts, the URL is usually shut down after a certain period of time:
The Giants expect him to be at Scottsdale Stadium when position players report Feb. 23.
Major League Baseball removed Villalona from its restricted list late last year, and the Giants added him to their 40-man roster to prevent another club from plucking him away in the Rule 5 draft. All players on the 40-man roster receive automatic invitations to big league camp in the spring.
Villalona already has a flight booked to the U.S., Evans said. But the club hasn't yet received confirmation that Villalona has gone through the final step in the process to take possession of the visa. That process involves a face-to-face interview, an identity check and proof of travel documents.
He's considered a premier, power-hitting first baseman and has been working out at the Giants' complex in the Dominican. According to scouting reports, he still has plenty of the bat speed that made him a standout talent as a teenager.
Villalona is not a candidate to make the Giants' opening-day roster, but there's a good chance he will be assigned to Single-A San Jose at some point this season.
Giants Thoughts
There has not been a lot of news about his condition or anything so this is pure nuggets of information. First, it is not like he is totally rusty, he has been working out at the Giants Dominican complex, and presumably facing live pitching there, as they note that his bat speed is still there. Which was what I expected, that is why I've been excited about his return to the Giants farm system. Basically, a top 40 level prospect has been dropped back into our farm system, a 5 star prospect, boosting our overall farm system talent level.
San Jose sounds about right, that was the level he was at before his career detour, and he was doing OK there, not great, and at age 21 now, he is age appropriate for top prospect level at the Advanced A level. Though most probably the Giants would start him off in instructional league, then when they think he is ready, either Augusta or even Salem-Keizer, then finally San Jose, maybe for the second half. That should be more than enough to get his feet back on the ground, hopefully.
Also, hopefully he has worked off a lot of his baby fat and is more compact and muscular now, though he should always be a big boi. From what I recall, he was really big, making Sandoval look like a Twiggy in comparison. With all that time off, I hope he worked every day at getting himself into better shape.
If he can get back up to speed, he can still possibly be a good young prospect when he makes the majors, assuming he can get his career back on track. I figured if he had great bat speed when he was 13 YO, there should be no way he would lose it while out of organized baseball. At worse, he can take swings off a tee or other batting equipment, and with his money, he can at least have a pitching machine setup built at his home so that he can bat off of it. That would help keep his reaction speed good enough for when he returned to organized baseball.
With Sandoval and Belt, though, the Giants should be set at those two positions - 1B and 3B - for years, so unless he learns to play the OF (unlikely at his size) or Belt gets pushed out to LF again, Villalona could be just a big trading chip the Giants can use to obtain more pitching or whatever else that they need, when the time comes.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
2011 Giants 40-Man Moves Ahead of Rule 5
Hank Schulman scooped everyone with his report on Villalona, the 40-man changes, and Pablo Sandoval's lasix eye surgery. Andy Baggarly had an extensive blog on the whole matter.
The News: Added to the Giants 40-man roster were 1B Angel Villalona, outfielders Tyler Graham and Roger Kieschnick, infielder Charlie Culberson, and pitchers Dan Otero and Hector Correa, whom the Giants got as part of a series of trades that sent now-retired Jack Taschner to the Phillies.
However, the Giants were at 36 at that time, so they had to DFA Waldis Joaquin again and Darren Ford. If they are not traded in 10 days, any team may pick them up, but the Giants are interested in picking them both back up afterward. Last time they DFAed Joaquin, he was claimed but the White Sox, he refused and became a free agent, upon which he resigned with the Giants.
The surprising news was that Villalona was added. It was speculated that perhaps this was related to getting Angel's visa reinstated so that he can return to the U.S. There are other logical reasons I could think of. One is that this was part of the legal settlement of the $5M lawsuit that Villalona filed against the Giants. I have to think that a 40-man player is paid a lot more than a minor leaguer. Another is that perhaps the Giants would just like to move forward on this, and by putting him on the 40-man, there is now a timeclock on when he can be jettisoned from the organization without there being really hard feelings. For example, if he were not put on the 40-man but was just released after he becomes a 6 year minor leaguer, he could decide that the Giants didn't give him enough of a chance and decide to sue again. Lastly, I believe that Rule 5 also has drafting of lower level prospects ( never understood that), and since his highest level is single-A, perhaps he could have been grabbed for someone's AA team.
Hopefully, and more likely, is that Villalona is still a viable prospect. The reports are that his swing is still good, that he has good bat speed. The original reports noted that he had slimmed down. I would have liked to have heard more about that, because he was a Big Boi, and slimming is not much when you are that big to begin with. But he sounds very serious about doing something in baseball, so with all that free time I was hoping that maybe he did something like Sandoval and really slimmed down. Maybe Sandoval can introduce him to his trainers during spring training and get him on the program.
I saw some worries out there about there being so many 1B now in the Giants system. I would note that he's always wanted to play 3B, was rated a plus prospect at defense at 3B when he first was signed, and continued to take fielding practice at 3B even while he was playing 1B. He was only playing first because the Giants wanted him to focus more on his offense than his defense. So I think 3B is viable for him going forward, if not already part of his legal settlement.
Among other news, Panda got his eyes Lasiked. He was having problems with his contacts -remember, he hit 2009 without good eye sight - and this procedure would allow him good vision without the equipment, as I recall goggles being involved too. He reported that it went fine, or maybe it was his brother who tweeted that, do not recall. So, in other words, he was hampered by his vision again in 2011 but should be able to see the ball clearly all the time in 2012. It was also noted that his shoulder was healed too, and should not hamper him in 2012 either. Hopefully, look out baseball world!
The News: Added to the Giants 40-man roster were 1B Angel Villalona, outfielders Tyler Graham and Roger Kieschnick, infielder Charlie Culberson, and pitchers Dan Otero and Hector Correa, whom the Giants got as part of a series of trades that sent now-retired Jack Taschner to the Phillies.
However, the Giants were at 36 at that time, so they had to DFA Waldis Joaquin again and Darren Ford. If they are not traded in 10 days, any team may pick them up, but the Giants are interested in picking them both back up afterward. Last time they DFAed Joaquin, he was claimed but the White Sox, he refused and became a free agent, upon which he resigned with the Giants.
The surprising news was that Villalona was added. It was speculated that perhaps this was related to getting Angel's visa reinstated so that he can return to the U.S. There are other logical reasons I could think of. One is that this was part of the legal settlement of the $5M lawsuit that Villalona filed against the Giants. I have to think that a 40-man player is paid a lot more than a minor leaguer. Another is that perhaps the Giants would just like to move forward on this, and by putting him on the 40-man, there is now a timeclock on when he can be jettisoned from the organization without there being really hard feelings. For example, if he were not put on the 40-man but was just released after he becomes a 6 year minor leaguer, he could decide that the Giants didn't give him enough of a chance and decide to sue again. Lastly, I believe that Rule 5 also has drafting of lower level prospects ( never understood that), and since his highest level is single-A, perhaps he could have been grabbed for someone's AA team.
Hopefully, and more likely, is that Villalona is still a viable prospect. The reports are that his swing is still good, that he has good bat speed. The original reports noted that he had slimmed down. I would have liked to have heard more about that, because he was a Big Boi, and slimming is not much when you are that big to begin with. But he sounds very serious about doing something in baseball, so with all that free time I was hoping that maybe he did something like Sandoval and really slimmed down. Maybe Sandoval can introduce him to his trainers during spring training and get him on the program.
I saw some worries out there about there being so many 1B now in the Giants system. I would note that he's always wanted to play 3B, was rated a plus prospect at defense at 3B when he first was signed, and continued to take fielding practice at 3B even while he was playing 1B. He was only playing first because the Giants wanted him to focus more on his offense than his defense. So I think 3B is viable for him going forward, if not already part of his legal settlement.
Among other news, Panda got his eyes Lasiked. He was having problems with his contacts -remember, he hit 2009 without good eye sight - and this procedure would allow him good vision without the equipment, as I recall goggles being involved too. He reported that it went fine, or maybe it was his brother who tweeted that, do not recall. So, in other words, he was hampered by his vision again in 2011 but should be able to see the ball clearly all the time in 2012. It was also noted that his shoulder was healed too, and should not hamper him in 2012 either. Hopefully, look out baseball world!
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
VIllanova's Baaack!
Angel Villanova is back with the Giants. Read this article on it, on Yahoo.
One minor quibble, only quibble since it was never verified, but the Giants reportedly only outbid the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox. One rumor was that the Mariners actually outbid the Giants by a lot, I believe the figure was $3.0M vs. the Giants $2.1M, which is probably why Villalona's agent, Scott Boras (yes, that agent) promptly announce that he was going to sue the Giants for not including him in the negotiations, whereupon the Giants stated that Villalona had the proper representatives for the Giants to execute a legally signed contract, so if Boras has a problem with how it went down, he should speak to Villalona. Since I heard nothing about it afterward, Boras probably licked his wounds with a big chunk of the $2.1M. (at, say, 10%, that's $210K vs. $300K, at 15%, $315K vs. $450K, the difference of which is probably pocket change in the big scheme of things for Boras).
Reportedly, the Giants scouts had been in on Villalona since he was 13 YO (he could officially sign once he turned 16) and had built up a relationship with him and his family over the intervening years. Much like how that Atlanta Braves scout did with Jason Heyward as serendipity placed Heyward on the scout's son's Little League team, where he developed a strong relationship with the Heyward family (there was probably no way he would have signed with any other team that draft year; he probably viewed it as fate deciding, because his parents are college professors and he would have been just as happy to go to college if the Braves did not pick him). Supposedly, Villalona went with the Giants because he was more comfortable with the team because of that long relationship built up.
Giants Thoughts
Not surprising that once the Giants reinstated Villanova, he dropped his $5M lawsuit (which is probably the main reason why the Giants reinstated him). Not surprising that they waited to reinstate him once he was cleared of the homicide charges, because they didn't want this to put a dark cloud on the World Championship afterglow. Not surprising that he sued them because they were probably ignoring all his entreaties to rejoin the organization. The $5M was more to get the Giants attention, I think, than any real intent to collect on the damages.
The article mentioned comparisons to A-Rod, Adrian Beltre, and Wily Mo Pena, but I've never see ones like that. Angel, physically, would never resemble the first two, and I don't know where they got Beltre, who is mostly all glove with some power, whereas Villanova is mostly all power with some glove. Most probably the author chose them because they are Latin players who have a lot of HR power and play good defense at 3B. There were reports that he has lost some of his baby fat and is slimmer now, but I think, like Sandoval, he's always going to be a big boi. Whether he can play 3B, like the first two, is also in question.
The comparison I recall, which was when he was signed, was to Andres Gallaraga. Villanova is suppose to have 40 home run power. His being among the leaders in HR in his one year at Augusta helped validate that, as he was much, much younger than the pitchers there, and yet was able to hit for power (though not much else, so his OPS was not that high, though very good, I believe, for his age).
He was suppose to be good defensively at 3B but the Giants had him play 1B to take some defensive pressure off him and let him focus on developing his bat, as well as adjust to a foreign culture. He reportedly still practiced a lot at 3B and had hopes of returning back to 3B at some point as he rose up higher. I think reports of his defense at 1B was positive, though not great.
I think the Wily Mo Pena comparison is probably more apt because Pena is one of the big busts of big money Latin American Bonus Babies. I believe his bonus was among the biggest up to his signing, if not the biggest, and thus his progress has been followed closely. He will be 30 next season and will have still not put in a full season yet.
His highest PA in a season was in 2004 with 364 PA when he was only 22. He got around 300 PA in his early to mid-20's, but once he turned 26, he could not do enough to keep teams interested enough to see if he would finally meet his projected potential, which is not unlike Angel, a 40 homer potential. He showed it in 2004 with 26 homers, but that is his career high water mark, though perhaps he still has a chance, as he has been stuck in the minors for the prior two seasons before getting some playing time in 2011 with Arizona and Seattle. He had 5 homers in 46 AB for Arizona.
Unfortunately for him, he has the classic "swing for it all" swing which results in a lot of HR power, but unfortunately even greater strikeout power and numbers, and thus his batting line is almost all SLG, as there are few hits or walks. He's a career .250 hitter with .303 OBP.
And that is what Villanova profiles as so far: big power, big whiffs. To be fair, though, he's been the youngest regular at each league he's been in, so a lot of whiffs are to be expected, the pitchers are that much more older, that much more experienced, than he was. Still, so was Sandoval and he was still able to avoid the strikeouts pretty well, even though he was young. The encouraging thing is that despite that disadvantage, Villanova, while striking out a lot, was not excessively so, which gave hope that as he rises and catches up in age and experience with the competition, he would continue to do so.
However, after missing two years of organized baseball, there is no way to tell how well he might do. He should definitely be very rusty, if not having regressed, slimmer body or not. He did OK in San Jose in 2009, but not as well as he did in Augusta, so they could restart his career in Augusta to account for that lost time, and let him work upward from there. On the other hand, I would think that some consideration would be given towards him starting in San Jose because there is a large Spanish speaking population here in the South San Francisco Bay Area, plus to see where he is competitively. Along that line, they might just put him in instructional league to now and just continue that into the start of 2012 to bring him back up to speed, and once he looks ready, then place him on one of the affiliates.
Obviously, mixed reactions on his return. Whoever may have done it, a life was lost because his group and another group were fighting over a chair in a dingy dive bar. While it is suspicious to Western eyes that he paid off the family, we don't know how life is in that part of the Dominican Republic, nor of how the court system works there. It could be like the U.S. where people sue when rich people are involved, only magnified exponentially because even the piddly $10K or so that he would have made in the minors this season, had he been re-instated earlier, is a lot of money for the average citizen of that town, most probably. His $2.1M bonus basically makes him the Warren Buffett of his town, essentially.
Moving on, focusing strictly on the baseball implications, this is great for the Giants farm system. The Giants have graduated a lot of people over the past few years, top players like Lincecum, Bumgarner, Sandoval, Posey, Belt, and still had some top prospects this season in Wheeler and Brown, plus now Panik most probably as well, plus perhaps Surkamp, though his major league debut was not that good. Adding Villalona will be like finding lost money, which basically he was for two seasons, though I would note here that one of the major questions marks when this thing hit was that his visa was revoked at that time, and I've seen nothing about it being re-instated. Since he says that he plans to return to baseball, I assume getting his visa back is a mere formality at this point.
Villanova was a Top 50 prospect for all of baseball at one point. While he lost development time while away, honestly, the way he looked previously, he looked like he was eating his way out of baseball anyway. If he has slimmed down in any significant way, that will help him regain his baseball status quicker. And he is still only 21 YO for next season.
He most probably will never regain Top 40 status. If he returned to San Jose, he would still be young for the league, still 2 years younger than the pitchers there (average in 2011 was 23.2 YO), but there are a lot of 20 and 21 YO players in the league and they are typically the top prospects for their teams. It is incredibly unlikely that he can keep up with that level of production to keep his status. For example, the top 21 YO was Jose Altuve (who became the Astro's starting 2B after they traded Jeff Keppinger to us) who hit .408/451/.606/1.057 there. Michael Choice was next, hitting .285/.376/.542/.918, Henry Rodriguez 3rd, hitting .340/.378/.513/.891. Villanova hit .267/.306/.397/.704 for San Jose in 2009 at age 18 (to think, he could have been close to the majors right now without all this, assuming he at least made AA by now and did well). He would have to hit pretty well there in 2012 to earn high prospect status for the Giants, let alone all of baseball again.
Still, to show his potential, he was still 83rd in OPS in 2009 in the California League, even though he was 5 years younger and less experienced than the pitchers there. His SLG ranked 69th and he was tied for 42nd in homers, despite being injured mid-season and missing a lot of the season. If he got the 530+ PA that our top position players got in 2009 for San Jose, he would have prorated hit at least 15 homers, which would have ranked tied for 14th in the league for homers. 21 YO with that much HR power that season were Thomas Neal and Trayvon Robinson, though they also hit for a heck of a lot better batting average. Both were in AAA this season, and Trayvon got some time in the majors with Seattle. Coincidentally, both Neal and Robinson were traded this season. And he did that at age 18, whereas now he is now 21, more physically developed, hopefully better fit and slimmer as well.
If he can regain status next season, he could still make the majors before he turns 25, which would still be pretty good. By that point, Sandoval could have moved to 1B by then, or even LF, if the Giants want to keep Belt at 1B, heck, he could even be gone, as he is slated to be a free agent after the 2014 season (Villalona will be 24 for the 2015 season). So 3B could be open at that point, should Angel still be able to play that position at that point, and perhaps 1B is open too. Given his difficulties with weight up to now, I don't see how 1B is not his eventual position at some point, so 3B would be the whip cream on top of the sundae.
I see him being a Mark Reynolds type, lots of strikeouts (though hopefully not as bad as Reynolds), enough walks to make his poor batting average into an OK OBP, but the main attraction will be his huge HR potential, 30-40 each year, with a lot of runs batted in too. Key questions will be whether he can walk enough to make his poor batting average into an OK enough OBP, whether he can not strikeout so much, so that his batting average isn't so poor, and whether he can hit enough homers that the first two questions are not that big an issue.
One minor quibble, only quibble since it was never verified, but the Giants reportedly only outbid the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox. One rumor was that the Mariners actually outbid the Giants by a lot, I believe the figure was $3.0M vs. the Giants $2.1M, which is probably why Villalona's agent, Scott Boras (yes, that agent) promptly announce that he was going to sue the Giants for not including him in the negotiations, whereupon the Giants stated that Villalona had the proper representatives for the Giants to execute a legally signed contract, so if Boras has a problem with how it went down, he should speak to Villalona. Since I heard nothing about it afterward, Boras probably licked his wounds with a big chunk of the $2.1M. (at, say, 10%, that's $210K vs. $300K, at 15%, $315K vs. $450K, the difference of which is probably pocket change in the big scheme of things for Boras).
Reportedly, the Giants scouts had been in on Villalona since he was 13 YO (he could officially sign once he turned 16) and had built up a relationship with him and his family over the intervening years. Much like how that Atlanta Braves scout did with Jason Heyward as serendipity placed Heyward on the scout's son's Little League team, where he developed a strong relationship with the Heyward family (there was probably no way he would have signed with any other team that draft year; he probably viewed it as fate deciding, because his parents are college professors and he would have been just as happy to go to college if the Braves did not pick him). Supposedly, Villalona went with the Giants because he was more comfortable with the team because of that long relationship built up.
Giants Thoughts
Not surprising that once the Giants reinstated Villanova, he dropped his $5M lawsuit (which is probably the main reason why the Giants reinstated him). Not surprising that they waited to reinstate him once he was cleared of the homicide charges, because they didn't want this to put a dark cloud on the World Championship afterglow. Not surprising that he sued them because they were probably ignoring all his entreaties to rejoin the organization. The $5M was more to get the Giants attention, I think, than any real intent to collect on the damages.
The article mentioned comparisons to A-Rod, Adrian Beltre, and Wily Mo Pena, but I've never see ones like that. Angel, physically, would never resemble the first two, and I don't know where they got Beltre, who is mostly all glove with some power, whereas Villanova is mostly all power with some glove. Most probably the author chose them because they are Latin players who have a lot of HR power and play good defense at 3B. There were reports that he has lost some of his baby fat and is slimmer now, but I think, like Sandoval, he's always going to be a big boi. Whether he can play 3B, like the first two, is also in question.
The comparison I recall, which was when he was signed, was to Andres Gallaraga. Villanova is suppose to have 40 home run power. His being among the leaders in HR in his one year at Augusta helped validate that, as he was much, much younger than the pitchers there, and yet was able to hit for power (though not much else, so his OPS was not that high, though very good, I believe, for his age).
He was suppose to be good defensively at 3B but the Giants had him play 1B to take some defensive pressure off him and let him focus on developing his bat, as well as adjust to a foreign culture. He reportedly still practiced a lot at 3B and had hopes of returning back to 3B at some point as he rose up higher. I think reports of his defense at 1B was positive, though not great.
I think the Wily Mo Pena comparison is probably more apt because Pena is one of the big busts of big money Latin American Bonus Babies. I believe his bonus was among the biggest up to his signing, if not the biggest, and thus his progress has been followed closely. He will be 30 next season and will have still not put in a full season yet.
His highest PA in a season was in 2004 with 364 PA when he was only 22. He got around 300 PA in his early to mid-20's, but once he turned 26, he could not do enough to keep teams interested enough to see if he would finally meet his projected potential, which is not unlike Angel, a 40 homer potential. He showed it in 2004 with 26 homers, but that is his career high water mark, though perhaps he still has a chance, as he has been stuck in the minors for the prior two seasons before getting some playing time in 2011 with Arizona and Seattle. He had 5 homers in 46 AB for Arizona.
Unfortunately for him, he has the classic "swing for it all" swing which results in a lot of HR power, but unfortunately even greater strikeout power and numbers, and thus his batting line is almost all SLG, as there are few hits or walks. He's a career .250 hitter with .303 OBP.
And that is what Villanova profiles as so far: big power, big whiffs. To be fair, though, he's been the youngest regular at each league he's been in, so a lot of whiffs are to be expected, the pitchers are that much more older, that much more experienced, than he was. Still, so was Sandoval and he was still able to avoid the strikeouts pretty well, even though he was young. The encouraging thing is that despite that disadvantage, Villanova, while striking out a lot, was not excessively so, which gave hope that as he rises and catches up in age and experience with the competition, he would continue to do so.
However, after missing two years of organized baseball, there is no way to tell how well he might do. He should definitely be very rusty, if not having regressed, slimmer body or not. He did OK in San Jose in 2009, but not as well as he did in Augusta, so they could restart his career in Augusta to account for that lost time, and let him work upward from there. On the other hand, I would think that some consideration would be given towards him starting in San Jose because there is a large Spanish speaking population here in the South San Francisco Bay Area, plus to see where he is competitively. Along that line, they might just put him in instructional league to now and just continue that into the start of 2012 to bring him back up to speed, and once he looks ready, then place him on one of the affiliates.
Obviously, mixed reactions on his return. Whoever may have done it, a life was lost because his group and another group were fighting over a chair in a dingy dive bar. While it is suspicious to Western eyes that he paid off the family, we don't know how life is in that part of the Dominican Republic, nor of how the court system works there. It could be like the U.S. where people sue when rich people are involved, only magnified exponentially because even the piddly $10K or so that he would have made in the minors this season, had he been re-instated earlier, is a lot of money for the average citizen of that town, most probably. His $2.1M bonus basically makes him the Warren Buffett of his town, essentially.
Moving on, focusing strictly on the baseball implications, this is great for the Giants farm system. The Giants have graduated a lot of people over the past few years, top players like Lincecum, Bumgarner, Sandoval, Posey, Belt, and still had some top prospects this season in Wheeler and Brown, plus now Panik most probably as well, plus perhaps Surkamp, though his major league debut was not that good. Adding Villalona will be like finding lost money, which basically he was for two seasons, though I would note here that one of the major questions marks when this thing hit was that his visa was revoked at that time, and I've seen nothing about it being re-instated. Since he says that he plans to return to baseball, I assume getting his visa back is a mere formality at this point.
Villanova was a Top 50 prospect for all of baseball at one point. While he lost development time while away, honestly, the way he looked previously, he looked like he was eating his way out of baseball anyway. If he has slimmed down in any significant way, that will help him regain his baseball status quicker. And he is still only 21 YO for next season.
He most probably will never regain Top 40 status. If he returned to San Jose, he would still be young for the league, still 2 years younger than the pitchers there (average in 2011 was 23.2 YO), but there are a lot of 20 and 21 YO players in the league and they are typically the top prospects for their teams. It is incredibly unlikely that he can keep up with that level of production to keep his status. For example, the top 21 YO was Jose Altuve (who became the Astro's starting 2B after they traded Jeff Keppinger to us) who hit .408/451/.606/1.057 there. Michael Choice was next, hitting .285/.376/.542/.918, Henry Rodriguez 3rd, hitting .340/.378/.513/.891. Villanova hit .267/.306/.397/.704 for San Jose in 2009 at age 18 (to think, he could have been close to the majors right now without all this, assuming he at least made AA by now and did well). He would have to hit pretty well there in 2012 to earn high prospect status for the Giants, let alone all of baseball again.
Still, to show his potential, he was still 83rd in OPS in 2009 in the California League, even though he was 5 years younger and less experienced than the pitchers there. His SLG ranked 69th and he was tied for 42nd in homers, despite being injured mid-season and missing a lot of the season. If he got the 530+ PA that our top position players got in 2009 for San Jose, he would have prorated hit at least 15 homers, which would have ranked tied for 14th in the league for homers. 21 YO with that much HR power that season were Thomas Neal and Trayvon Robinson, though they also hit for a heck of a lot better batting average. Both were in AAA this season, and Trayvon got some time in the majors with Seattle. Coincidentally, both Neal and Robinson were traded this season. And he did that at age 18, whereas now he is now 21, more physically developed, hopefully better fit and slimmer as well.
If he can regain status next season, he could still make the majors before he turns 25, which would still be pretty good. By that point, Sandoval could have moved to 1B by then, or even LF, if the Giants want to keep Belt at 1B, heck, he could even be gone, as he is slated to be a free agent after the 2014 season (Villalona will be 24 for the 2015 season). So 3B could be open at that point, should Angel still be able to play that position at that point, and perhaps 1B is open too. Given his difficulties with weight up to now, I don't see how 1B is not his eventual position at some point, so 3B would be the whip cream on top of the sundae.
I see him being a Mark Reynolds type, lots of strikeouts (though hopefully not as bad as Reynolds), enough walks to make his poor batting average into an OK OBP, but the main attraction will be his huge HR potential, 30-40 each year, with a lot of runs batted in too. Key questions will be whether he can walk enough to make his poor batting average into an OK enough OBP, whether he can not strikeout so much, so that his batting average isn't so poor, and whether he can hit enough homers that the first two questions are not that big an issue.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Innocence Lost: Angel Villalona
As most Giants fans know, top prospect Angel Villalona sits in jail, on charges of having shot and killed someone in a bar fight, reportedly over the deceased occupying Villalona's "seat". He faces 20 years in jail. No matter how this ends up, a person lies dead, his family and friends grieve. There's nothing worse than that, and my condolences goes to his family and friends. And hopefully justice is done.
There was a great article in the Chronicle a few days back, that I will link here. The reporter went to his home town, and gave a great view of Villalona's background, his neighborhood, and some initial reports on the incident.
Of course, the responses were what one would expect. The ones who back the deceased says that Villalona was the one who "shot him in the back", that he will get off because of his fame and reputation. The ones who are Villalona's friends says that he didn't do it and that the other side is just fingering the one person with great wealth, Villalona. In fact, one friend, a co-Yesowner of the bar, claims that he was with Villalona when the fatal shot was fired, and Angel was not the one who fired the shot. He also claimed that Villalona does not even own a gun.
Evolving Story
As can be expected, the story has been evolving as news trickles out. Initially, there were claims that the deceased was shot in the back. However, the autopsy concluded that he was shot in the chest, with the bullet coming through the back (see this post on McCovey Chronicles by Harold S about three-quarters down a long thread of comments) and came out his neck. But if you read further down, Harold S then notes that a new report says that the victim had been shot twice, which could explain both reports. Obviously, we don't have all the news yet, and won't for at least two months, if not more.
My view is that unless the police locates the gun used to fire the fatal shot and get fingerprints off of it, and perhaps get gunfire residue off the perp's arm, they most probably will not ever figure out exactly who did the dirty deed. Then things will just degenerate into a "he said, she said" scenario, with conflicting accounts, and justice is not done.
Neither side is unmotivated to lie. Obviously, Villalona's friends would lie to protect him, if he really did do this heinous deed. However, the other side stands to gain too. The brother is the one interviewed who claims that he saw Villalona shoot him in the back. His family stands to gain in a lawsuit, or at least get hush money, to make things go away.
In addition, his statement suggests that he has something against Angel.
Innocence Lost
Either way, no matter now this ends up, Angel Villalona's innocence was lost with this sad event. If he did fire the gun, then his innocence is lost because that is a horrible, wretched thing to do, particularly over something as petty as a barstool seat, and I think that anybody who has ever killed someone else is greatly affected for the rest of their life. And it would be horrible if he got off, but I suspect that if he really did it, enough people will have his back that he would still get off, because for every person saying Villalona did it, there will probably be two people saying they were off to the side with Villalona, watching the whole thing.
If he didn't fire the gun, Villalona's innocence is lost in another way. Even if he didn't pull the trigger, it was his fame and fortune that precipitated the encounter and resulted in a death. That would weigh on most people. In addition, being falsely accused (again, we are here assuming innocence) just because the other people want your money, that's also a hard thing to take. Juan Uribe noted in an interview, "when people know you have money, they do things."
Another thing I would note is that Scott Boras is reportedly his agent (he claimed that he was when Villalona signed with the Giants without Boras around, which made him mad). Whether Villalona is innocent or not, I would expect Boras to bring all his legal resources around to help Villalona. That could swing things Angel's way, either way.
Is Villalona Capable?
It is hard to say what type of person Villalona is. In this Mercury news item, Villalona's host family when he was at San Jose said that Villalona is shy and reserved, a good natured boy. An account with the Chronicle noted that Villalona is afraid of dogs and even carnival rides. They interviewed Jack Hiatt, the Giant's former director of player development, and he says that what he has heard "doesn't sound like him at all. He's a great kid and borders on extreme quiet. I've never seen him get angry." Villalona's host family, in this interview, noted that Villalona is a very nice person with a mirthful sense of humor. "He was a sweetheart."
The thing is, it is hard to tell how one might react in a situation that you are not familiar with. Studies have shown that the way people act around one group of friends can be quite different when the people are with another group of friends, and that also goes for situations as well. That's how a "nice boy" to neighbors can be the opposite when he is at school. Thus, Villalona could easily be the shy quiet boy in San Jose, but who is not docile and drives like the devil at home.
Oddity About the Two Gunshot Wounds
I will end with some thoughts about the latest reports about there being two gunshot wounds. If that report is correct, that one shot was in his chest, exiting his neck, and another shot in the back, that seems weird. The only way a shot in the chest comes out the neck is if the gun was basically in the deceased ribs and pointed upward. I would have to assume this shooter is a friend of Villalona's.
Now, the second shot in the back is supposedly shot by Villalona, according to the brother. But if a friend of Villalona is in close contact with the deceased, Villalona, by shooting him in the back would be also risking shooting his buddy as well, because they are so close to each other. That doesn't make sense to me.
Giants Thoughts
All in all, no matter what happens next, a very sad situation all around. If Villalona did do this, I hope justice prevails and he is put behind bars per the laws of his country. Of course, as a Giants fan I hope he is innocent and did not do it. But even if he is cleared, a cloud of question will always surround him for me from now on, unless there is some conclusive evidence that he didn't do it, because I won't know if he got off because he was innocent or if he got off because he's an influential person in his hometown.
There was a great article in the Chronicle a few days back, that I will link here. The reporter went to his home town, and gave a great view of Villalona's background, his neighborhood, and some initial reports on the incident.
Of course, the responses were what one would expect. The ones who back the deceased says that Villalona was the one who "shot him in the back", that he will get off because of his fame and reputation. The ones who are Villalona's friends says that he didn't do it and that the other side is just fingering the one person with great wealth, Villalona. In fact, one friend, a co-Yesowner of the bar, claims that he was with Villalona when the fatal shot was fired, and Angel was not the one who fired the shot. He also claimed that Villalona does not even own a gun.
Evolving Story
As can be expected, the story has been evolving as news trickles out. Initially, there were claims that the deceased was shot in the back. However, the autopsy concluded that he was shot in the chest, with the bullet coming through the back (see this post on McCovey Chronicles by Harold S about three-quarters down a long thread of comments) and came out his neck. But if you read further down, Harold S then notes that a new report says that the victim had been shot twice, which could explain both reports. Obviously, we don't have all the news yet, and won't for at least two months, if not more.
My view is that unless the police locates the gun used to fire the fatal shot and get fingerprints off of it, and perhaps get gunfire residue off the perp's arm, they most probably will not ever figure out exactly who did the dirty deed. Then things will just degenerate into a "he said, she said" scenario, with conflicting accounts, and justice is not done.
Neither side is unmotivated to lie. Obviously, Villalona's friends would lie to protect him, if he really did do this heinous deed. However, the other side stands to gain too. The brother is the one interviewed who claims that he saw Villalona shoot him in the back. His family stands to gain in a lawsuit, or at least get hush money, to make things go away.
In addition, his statement suggests that he has something against Angel.
"He changed totally after getting that money from America. He wasn't docile anymore - he'd come flying down the street in his Nissan like a devil, and he never has less than eight people around him."Of course, he should have something against Angel, he claims Angel killed his brother, but I still find this statement interesting. For one thing, what does not being docile have to do with anything? If he's more confident, that's probably because he made $2.1M, which is probably 10-100 times more than any of them will ever make in a lifetime. And I find that most kids who can get a new car when they are a teenager drives like a devil. And, if their culture is so gun obsessed that many carry guns because of the potential violence, I would have that many people around me for protection, because someone of that wealth will be a target for robbery and perhaps kidnapping.
Innocence Lost
Either way, no matter now this ends up, Angel Villalona's innocence was lost with this sad event. If he did fire the gun, then his innocence is lost because that is a horrible, wretched thing to do, particularly over something as petty as a barstool seat, and I think that anybody who has ever killed someone else is greatly affected for the rest of their life. And it would be horrible if he got off, but I suspect that if he really did it, enough people will have his back that he would still get off, because for every person saying Villalona did it, there will probably be two people saying they were off to the side with Villalona, watching the whole thing.
If he didn't fire the gun, Villalona's innocence is lost in another way. Even if he didn't pull the trigger, it was his fame and fortune that precipitated the encounter and resulted in a death. That would weigh on most people. In addition, being falsely accused (again, we are here assuming innocence) just because the other people want your money, that's also a hard thing to take. Juan Uribe noted in an interview, "when people know you have money, they do things."
Another thing I would note is that Scott Boras is reportedly his agent (he claimed that he was when Villalona signed with the Giants without Boras around, which made him mad). Whether Villalona is innocent or not, I would expect Boras to bring all his legal resources around to help Villalona. That could swing things Angel's way, either way.
Is Villalona Capable?
It is hard to say what type of person Villalona is. In this Mercury news item, Villalona's host family when he was at San Jose said that Villalona is shy and reserved, a good natured boy. An account with the Chronicle noted that Villalona is afraid of dogs and even carnival rides. They interviewed Jack Hiatt, the Giant's former director of player development, and he says that what he has heard "doesn't sound like him at all. He's a great kid and borders on extreme quiet. I've never seen him get angry." Villalona's host family, in this interview, noted that Villalona is a very nice person with a mirthful sense of humor. "He was a sweetheart."
The thing is, it is hard to tell how one might react in a situation that you are not familiar with. Studies have shown that the way people act around one group of friends can be quite different when the people are with another group of friends, and that also goes for situations as well. That's how a "nice boy" to neighbors can be the opposite when he is at school. Thus, Villalona could easily be the shy quiet boy in San Jose, but who is not docile and drives like the devil at home.
Oddity About the Two Gunshot Wounds
I will end with some thoughts about the latest reports about there being two gunshot wounds. If that report is correct, that one shot was in his chest, exiting his neck, and another shot in the back, that seems weird. The only way a shot in the chest comes out the neck is if the gun was basically in the deceased ribs and pointed upward. I would have to assume this shooter is a friend of Villalona's.
Now, the second shot in the back is supposedly shot by Villalona, according to the brother. But if a friend of Villalona is in close contact with the deceased, Villalona, by shooting him in the back would be also risking shooting his buddy as well, because they are so close to each other. That doesn't make sense to me.
Giants Thoughts
All in all, no matter what happens next, a very sad situation all around. If Villalona did do this, I hope justice prevails and he is put behind bars per the laws of his country. Of course, as a Giants fan I hope he is innocent and did not do it. But even if he is cleared, a cloud of question will always surround him for me from now on, unless there is some conclusive evidence that he didn't do it, because I won't know if he got off because he was innocent or if he got off because he's an influential person in his hometown.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Injury Reports (Cain's Arm Not Broken!) and Other News
Catching up on a number of news reports, the most important are injury reports, starting with...
Matt Cain's Arm is Not Broken
That's the most important bit of news, that his arm was not broken when a line drive off of, of all people, the opposing pitcher hit him just below the elbow of his throwing arm. That's the first step towards a good injury report and perhaps we should be thankful that it was a pitcher doing it and not a regular player. Right now Cain is diagnosed with a contussion and listed as doubtful for the All-Star game, though he will attend and participate otherwise. He's still hopeful, but taking it day to day.
That's two Giants pitchers hit by a batted ball in about one half a season when I couldn't remember the last time a Giants pitcher was hit and injured by a pitch. So that should hopefully cover us for a long long time.
Late breaking new from Laurence Miedma: Cain officially off roster, replaced by Pirates Zach Duke. That's good, no use risking the dummy Manuel (really, skipping over Sandoval for the All-Star team; though the bonus is that Sandoval has hit a homer in each game after that snub) possibly tempted to use Cain in the All-Star game. Our star pitcher should be resting his arm and getting the bruise healed. Hopefully, though, he can do that AND get to participate in the All-Star game, hanging with The Kid.
Angel Villalona Out with Quad Strain
As reported first by Chris Haft, Angel Villalona will be out at least four weeks with a strained left quadriceps. This will cost him his spot in this year's Futures Game, which he had also participated in last season. He's only hitting .269/.308/.400/.708, with 9 HR in 290 AB. He had started out the season well in April and May with OPS over 800, but has been totally lost June and July, so perhaps he's been hiding this injury and not treating it. Hopefully he will get it healed up well and start hitting again.
Buster Posey Just Fine
Buster Posey the other week was hit in the head with a pitch - sorry, should have reported that big bit of news - but he was fine, just held out for about a week to make sure his head and brain are fine, and after two games of no-hits, the hitting machine turned on again and started slugging again. He should be in AAA pretty soon, I would think.
Dallas McPherson Just Not Fine
Anticlimactically, the slugging 3B Dallas McPherson, he of 41 HR last season in the minors, whom we signed this year after the Marlins inexplicably gave up on him and never even gave him a chance, has still not taken one AB for us yet. He had just been placed on the 7-day DL (minor leagues) the other week, but as far as I know, he's never put in any time with any of our minor league affiliates, though perhaps he's been participating in instruction league or maybe a rookie league.
Too bad he decided he would rather be with the Marlins last season - I think he grew up in the area - because had he signed with us, he would have been starting at 3B for us much of the year instead of Castillo and perhaps prevented Panda-monium from reaching us last season until September. Now with Sandoval entrenched at 3B, maybe he can grab 1B next season, if he ever gets any ABs.
Sanchez and Righetti
Andy Baggerly kindly provided a great interview with Righetti in his blog, plus a wonderful article on Sanchez and Righetti. I totally recommend reading both, they are excellent, as usual. I always see a lot of fans rag on Rags as our pitching coach, but I think the latter article shows a great example of how Righetti helped out Sanchez, and undoubtedly all our other pitchers too at some point. Hopefully they will remember this article the next time they think they know better than the Giants brass about how good Rags is as a pitching coach.
It also explains why Sanchez was so lousy to start the season. It was the damn WBC, as suspected, but not for what one might think. Apparently Sanchez saw Johan Santana do something and wanted to copy him, which screwed him up because he's tall and Santana is shorter. He resisted changing back until now.
Matt Cain's Arm is Not Broken
That's the most important bit of news, that his arm was not broken when a line drive off of, of all people, the opposing pitcher hit him just below the elbow of his throwing arm. That's the first step towards a good injury report and perhaps we should be thankful that it was a pitcher doing it and not a regular player. Right now Cain is diagnosed with a contussion and listed as doubtful for the All-Star game, though he will attend and participate otherwise. He's still hopeful, but taking it day to day.
That's two Giants pitchers hit by a batted ball in about one half a season when I couldn't remember the last time a Giants pitcher was hit and injured by a pitch. So that should hopefully cover us for a long long time.
Late breaking new from Laurence Miedma: Cain officially off roster, replaced by Pirates Zach Duke. That's good, no use risking the dummy Manuel (really, skipping over Sandoval for the All-Star team; though the bonus is that Sandoval has hit a homer in each game after that snub) possibly tempted to use Cain in the All-Star game. Our star pitcher should be resting his arm and getting the bruise healed. Hopefully, though, he can do that AND get to participate in the All-Star game, hanging with The Kid.
Angel Villalona Out with Quad Strain
As reported first by Chris Haft, Angel Villalona will be out at least four weeks with a strained left quadriceps. This will cost him his spot in this year's Futures Game, which he had also participated in last season. He's only hitting .269/.308/.400/.708, with 9 HR in 290 AB. He had started out the season well in April and May with OPS over 800, but has been totally lost June and July, so perhaps he's been hiding this injury and not treating it. Hopefully he will get it healed up well and start hitting again.
Buster Posey Just Fine
Buster Posey the other week was hit in the head with a pitch - sorry, should have reported that big bit of news - but he was fine, just held out for about a week to make sure his head and brain are fine, and after two games of no-hits, the hitting machine turned on again and started slugging again. He should be in AAA pretty soon, I would think.
Dallas McPherson Just Not Fine
Anticlimactically, the slugging 3B Dallas McPherson, he of 41 HR last season in the minors, whom we signed this year after the Marlins inexplicably gave up on him and never even gave him a chance, has still not taken one AB for us yet. He had just been placed on the 7-day DL (minor leagues) the other week, but as far as I know, he's never put in any time with any of our minor league affiliates, though perhaps he's been participating in instruction league or maybe a rookie league.
Too bad he decided he would rather be with the Marlins last season - I think he grew up in the area - because had he signed with us, he would have been starting at 3B for us much of the year instead of Castillo and perhaps prevented Panda-monium from reaching us last season until September. Now with Sandoval entrenched at 3B, maybe he can grab 1B next season, if he ever gets any ABs.
Sanchez and Righetti
Andy Baggerly kindly provided a great interview with Righetti in his blog, plus a wonderful article on Sanchez and Righetti. I totally recommend reading both, they are excellent, as usual. I always see a lot of fans rag on Rags as our pitching coach, but I think the latter article shows a great example of how Righetti helped out Sanchez, and undoubtedly all our other pitchers too at some point. Hopefully they will remember this article the next time they think they know better than the Giants brass about how good Rags is as a pitching coach.
It also explains why Sanchez was so lousy to start the season. It was the damn WBC, as suspected, but not for what one might think. Apparently Sanchez saw Johan Santana do something and wanted to copy him, which screwed him up because he's tall and Santana is shorter. He resisted changing back until now.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Villalona Follow-up By Project Prospect
Project Prospect wrote an article specifically on Angel Villalona the other day, in reaction to my and other's criticism of their assessment of the Giants young star prospect. Here is how they ended it:
Villalona now has over 700 pro plate appearances that we can use to evaluate him, leaving little reason to put much weight into his signing bonus. Due to his age, he'll likely get a partial pass for performance over the next couple of years, but evaluators will need to put more weight into his production after that. Predicting a major breakout can be risky. A lot of things could go wrong with Villalona's development over the next five years.
However, that last part is true, and more so, about Michael Ynoa, the A's $4M+ bonus baby, who is a pitcher. And they ranked him 46th out of their Top 200. What did they say about him in their comments: "He is a very polished pitcher with three above-average pitches" - Billy Beane told ESPN last July. I could probably get a few good quotes on Villalona from the Giants, I would bet.
Giants Thoughts
I think it goes without saying that any prospect 18 years old and just out of A-ball "need a big breakout season over the next couple of years" as they started their post on him. That's true of any prospect that low in the minors. That's true of Michael Ynoa, who they ranked 46th, a 16 year old who they couldn't have scouted yet (much a least). Yet somehow, without reading about him from any other scouting sources, they feel OK ranking him in the Top 50.
They never addressed what I considered a major point: that he is almost one year younger than even the next youngest prospect, that he was basically a high school senior age player playing against players mostly with 3-6 years on him in age and pro/college experience. And still he did better than average plus hit for a lot of power.
And it wasn't like he was totally lost and swinging away, his strikeout rate fell from 26% in his first month to 21% in his last two months. That is not that bad (though admittedly not good either). And I would be OK with a batter swinging away to get a hit if he can hit with a BABIP .333 and over his last three months.
The problem with looking at his stats and judging him solely by the numbers early in the season is that before that season, he had not really faced many pitchers who were old enough to have graduated from college. In his previous year, when he hit well enough to get ranked high, he was facing mainly pitchers just 2-3 years old than he was, rookie-ball is mostly prospects that young, that is why it was suspect when D'Alessio did so well there, he was so much older.
So his early season troubles would be troubling if it weren't that he had not faced many pitchers with that much more experience than him prior to that. And he clearly struggled. But he also improved. His strikeout rate improved significantly from the first half to the last two months, as did his BABIP. In addition, after a slow first month, he had 4 or 5 homers in 3 of the 4 following months, ending with 17 homers. Again, facing pitchers who mostly have 3-6 years experience on him.
Now, I am not saying that Villalona will be an above-average hitter. What I'm saying is that what he did in 2008 is not far from what he did in 2007, particularly accounting for a slow start against much more experienced pitchers. And the key thing for him was that he exhibited a great deal more power than his previous year despite the pitchers age advantage over him. So I can see justifying keeping him where he was last season or even rising him a little bit, but dropping him out of the Top 100?
In 2007, his strikeout rate was 21%; in 2008, he got it down to that low by season's end. He had 34% XBH and 153 ISO in 2007; 34% XBH and 168 ISO his last two months. His BABIP in 2007 was .327; it was roughly that the final three months of 2008. His walks isn't that much, but we aren't really looking for him to get a lot of walks, and walks and batting average were not the big things about him as a prospect early on anyway, it was his power. And he showed his power plenty in 2008, and just as much by season's end as he did in 2007, if not more so in terms of HR power.
So if he's exhibiting basically the same level of skill by the end of the season as he did the previous season, then he should not be dropping that much in the ranking. It wasn't like he walked that much in 2007 either. Some drop, I can see, as a penalty for not starting the season on fire, but to drop out of the Top 100? I still have to vehemently disagree. But we will see in the 2009 season, not that I'm an expert or anything, just giving my opinion based on what I've seen with his numbers and what I've read from scouting books as my sources. And I look forward to seeing Angel live in a game.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Project Prospect's Giants 2009 Top 5 Prospects
Project Prospect published recently their top 5 for the Giants here. The list is not too surprising, same as every other list's top 4 plus a different #5:
Giants Thoughts
I think the profiles were good overall but I have some things I need to comment on.
First, I disagree vehemently regarding Angel Villalona. They pooh-poohs Angel's August, but then notes favorably Noonan's August. Yes, Noonan did have a great August, but Angel's .351 BABIP that they disparage as "luck" is not that far from what he did in June and July when his BABIP was .333. And if they say that is luck for him to do it for three months, then why wasn't Noonan's August also luck because his BABIP was .312 (he had two month below .300 BABIP) and a LD% of only 12%. They also give him the backhand on his defense without giving any reasons, and if they saw him defend badly, they should have noted it. Most accounts of his defense is that he should be at least average defensively. McKamey noted that he "has soft hands and arm strength on defense." They end his profile by noting:
Unfortunately I have no reference point on wOBA, other than Fangraphs list his wOBA as .332 (which is low, 48th out of 86 qualifying hitters, but higher than the .321 attributed to him). But they then oddly note the fact that he was the 2nd youngest player there (which is odd, I thought he was the youngest; according to Baseball-Reference.com, he was the youngest to play most of the season there, the two younger players played in 1 and 35 games, respectively, while Villalona played in 123 games out of a total of 138 games), which don't make sense. Maybe though he was the oldest he hit poorly, in their opinion, but if he's the 2nd youngest, usually that leads to a positive assessment, due to age, not a disparagement. In addition, they fail to note that, beyond his ranking by age, he was doing this when he should be a senior in high school, not a professional playing in A-ball.
That's the key point about his age, not that he's 2nd youngest, which does not give enough perspective on how young he is, it's that he's doing this when he should be a senior in high school, playing against all these people who mostly are old enough to graduate from college, but even the younger players he was playing against were players who would be in their first year of college, and yet he not only held his own against them, with an OPS that was above the league average, when he should be a senior in high school, but he was among the league leaders in homeruns. Sure, he has bad discipline, but most seniors in high school would have some problems facing pitchers with 3 years of experience in college.
They also don't give him credit that this was his first full-season league and he's still adjusting to living in America, nor that this was only his second year in any type of organized ball. Most of these players have been playing and honing things down in Little League and all the various showcases they have been playing in during high school, and the majority of players in this league have 3 years of college experience plus some professional experience. He had very little experience in organized ball, except when his agent paid off corporate teams in his country to get him into some games. It is at least some experience, but certainly nothing close to the games a typical high school top prospect get into, both in high school competition and all the various showcases they play at, and certainly much less than college players got.
I'll end with a telling quote (from the Chronicle article that they linked to and mocked) from one of the Giants : "You can't expect quick results when he's just learning bunt signs for the first time in his life." Most of the players in the Sally League learned the bunt signs as 7-8 year olds in Little League or PONY League. Villalona didn't learn this until he was 16 years old, so in 2007 and 2008 he has been getting a crash course in learning all the things his fellow players had 10 years or more to learn and hone. And he still was above average.
Second, they did not give Posey the due one would expect, based on the way they wrote about the other prospects. They noted that Gillaspie as a top NCAA hitter but neglected to mention that Posey was ranked much higher by their system. In fact, he had the third best total score, based on their system, and was second for 2008. Gillaspie, out of the top picks listed there, had the 8th total score (out of 16 hitters) and 6th best score in 2008.
And though they also pooh-pooh's Buster's power, he had the third best power using their system. Which made me wonder: are they saying that their system is not that good for judging future performance? They make the same assessment that most analysts have said about Buster, that his power in college will at best translate into gap power in the majors. However, with the third best power using any system, one would think that such a player would be able to do more in the majors than gap-to-gap power.
Lastly, I agree that Noonan is a 2009 breakout candidate, but as I noted above, they base a large measure of that on his great August and if they used the same logic on Noonan that they used on Villalona, well, then his August wasn't that great, by their logic.
I find it surprising that Fairley made the Honorable Mentions, and above Rafael Rodriguez. I suppose that it reflects the assessment they have made regarding Villalona and thus reflects poorly on the Giants judgment of such international free agents. I think given the money given (highest bonus until Ynoa/A's deal) and the 5-Tool designation should give him more weight even if he hasn't done anything yet professionally.
- Madison Bumgarner
- Buster Posey
- Tim Alderson
- Angel Villalona
- Conor Gillaspie
Giants Thoughts
I think the profiles were good overall but I have some things I need to comment on.
First, I disagree vehemently regarding Angel Villalona. They pooh-poohs Angel's August, but then notes favorably Noonan's August. Yes, Noonan did have a great August, but Angel's .351 BABIP that they disparage as "luck" is not that far from what he did in June and July when his BABIP was .333. And if they say that is luck for him to do it for three months, then why wasn't Noonan's August also luck because his BABIP was .312 (he had two month below .300 BABIP) and a LD% of only 12%. They also give him the backhand on his defense without giving any reasons, and if they saw him defend badly, they should have noted it. Most accounts of his defense is that he should be at least average defensively. McKamey noted that he "has soft hands and arm strength on defense." They end his profile by noting:
Though he was the 2nd-youngest player in Low-A last season, he only managed a .321 overall wOBA. Villalona supporters can pretend he finished with an awesome August last year all they want, but the reality is his .351 BABIP from that month (16% LD) was likely more a product of bad defense, rough infields, and good luck than any kind of breakout. Villalona's youth and raw power have helped him become one of the most overhyped prospects in baseball. I see Villalona as a poor bet to ever surface as an above-average regular.
Unfortunately I have no reference point on wOBA, other than Fangraphs list his wOBA as .332 (which is low, 48th out of 86 qualifying hitters, but higher than the .321 attributed to him). But they then oddly note the fact that he was the 2nd youngest player there (which is odd, I thought he was the youngest; according to Baseball-Reference.com, he was the youngest to play most of the season there, the two younger players played in 1 and 35 games, respectively, while Villalona played in 123 games out of a total of 138 games), which don't make sense. Maybe though he was the oldest he hit poorly, in their opinion, but if he's the 2nd youngest, usually that leads to a positive assessment, due to age, not a disparagement. In addition, they fail to note that, beyond his ranking by age, he was doing this when he should be a senior in high school, not a professional playing in A-ball.
That's the key point about his age, not that he's 2nd youngest, which does not give enough perspective on how young he is, it's that he's doing this when he should be a senior in high school, playing against all these people who mostly are old enough to graduate from college, but even the younger players he was playing against were players who would be in their first year of college, and yet he not only held his own against them, with an OPS that was above the league average, when he should be a senior in high school, but he was among the league leaders in homeruns. Sure, he has bad discipline, but most seniors in high school would have some problems facing pitchers with 3 years of experience in college.
They also don't give him credit that this was his first full-season league and he's still adjusting to living in America, nor that this was only his second year in any type of organized ball. Most of these players have been playing and honing things down in Little League and all the various showcases they have been playing in during high school, and the majority of players in this league have 3 years of college experience plus some professional experience. He had very little experience in organized ball, except when his agent paid off corporate teams in his country to get him into some games. It is at least some experience, but certainly nothing close to the games a typical high school top prospect get into, both in high school competition and all the various showcases they play at, and certainly much less than college players got.
I'll end with a telling quote (from the Chronicle article that they linked to and mocked) from one of the Giants : "You can't expect quick results when he's just learning bunt signs for the first time in his life." Most of the players in the Sally League learned the bunt signs as 7-8 year olds in Little League or PONY League. Villalona didn't learn this until he was 16 years old, so in 2007 and 2008 he has been getting a crash course in learning all the things his fellow players had 10 years or more to learn and hone. And he still was above average.
Second, they did not give Posey the due one would expect, based on the way they wrote about the other prospects. They noted that Gillaspie as a top NCAA hitter but neglected to mention that Posey was ranked much higher by their system. In fact, he had the third best total score, based on their system, and was second for 2008. Gillaspie, out of the top picks listed there, had the 8th total score (out of 16 hitters) and 6th best score in 2008.
And though they also pooh-pooh's Buster's power, he had the third best power using their system. Which made me wonder: are they saying that their system is not that good for judging future performance? They make the same assessment that most analysts have said about Buster, that his power in college will at best translate into gap power in the majors. However, with the third best power using any system, one would think that such a player would be able to do more in the majors than gap-to-gap power.
Lastly, I agree that Noonan is a 2009 breakout candidate, but as I noted above, they base a large measure of that on his great August and if they used the same logic on Noonan that they used on Villalona, well, then his August wasn't that great, by their logic.
I find it surprising that Fairley made the Honorable Mentions, and above Rafael Rodriguez. I suppose that it reflects the assessment they have made regarding Villalona and thus reflects poorly on the Giants judgment of such international free agents. I think given the money given (highest bonus until Ynoa/A's deal) and the 5-Tool designation should give him more weight even if he hasn't done anything yet professionally.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Giants Pitching Riches
At Project Prospect, in a recent Top 50 pitchers under 25 list, the Giants had 4 of the top 46 pitchers: Tim Lincecum (#1), Matt Cain (#9), Madison Bumgarner (#23) and Tim Alderson (#46). Bumgarner was also 2nd among the Top 30 Pitching Prospects and Alderson was 12th.
Unfortunately, this dominance of the list will end in 8 months or so, when Lincecum will turn 25, and further drop when Matt Cain joins him in a year. Still, with 30 teams, on average each team has 1.67 top pitchers under 25 years of age, so two is right in there.
Position Players
There were also prospects top among position players:
C: Buster Posey was 4th behind Brian McCann, Matt Weiters, and Dioner Navarro, and McCann and Navarro will turn 25 soon. Pablo Sandoval was 8th. Posey was 2nd overall among catching prospects.
1B: Nobody ranked in the Top 10 under 25 category. Angel Villalona was ranked 14th among Top 15 Firstbase prospects, but was put down for his overall seasonal stats by the site's analysts. Travis Ishikawa was listed among honorable mentions.
2B: Nick Noonan got honorable mention and was 7th among top 2B prospects for 2009.
3B: Conor Gillaspie got honorable mention for both Top under 25 and Top 15 Third Base Prospects. Not sure how he pulled off both of them, but he did.
SS: Nobody ranked in the Top 10 under 25 category or Top 15 SS Prospects.
CF: Dustin Ackley got honorable mention and he's one of the names popping up as a possible pick for the Giants #6 pick for the 2009 amateur draft. Nobody currently in the Giants farm got a ranking in the Top 10 under 25 category or Top 15 CF Prospects.
OF: Nobody ranked in the Top 10 under 25 category or Top 15 OF Prospects.
Giants Thoughts
Giants have a great crop of starting pitchers and look to have at least two for the next four to eight years. That will lead to a dominating rotation that will make it that much easier for the lineup to score just enough runs to win the division and get into the playoffs.
The most shocking ranking was Angel Villalona, who have made a number of top 50-100 rankings (McKamey 61st out of 100; Baseball Prospectus 47th out of 100; Baseball America has also been high on him before, he was in all of their writers' Top 50 list for 2008) but was only 14th among 1B prospects here. This shows the dichotomy between saber-driven sources, like Project Prospect, and sources that incorporate scouting reports and projections, like McKamey and BP.
I am not sure where Villalona ranks for Baseball America for 2009 (don't have their book yet) but in a chat during the year, one of their writers noted during mid-2008: "Villalona has shown he's not overmatched as a 17-year-old in a full-season league, which is impressive on its own. He just struggles with righthanded pitching right now (whereas he's slugging .594 against lefties). He may wear down as the season goes on, but he'll probably end up with around 15 home runs and I wouldn't fret too much about wherever his final numbers end up." As I've noted, he had his best month of the season in his last month.
They also noted in the Sally League Top 20: "Yes, some people question Villalona's maturity, but he was 17 for most of the year, so he gets a pass. He looked much better, both physically and at the plate, during the second half of the season, which should bode well for the future. He's still learning how to be a professional."
This list also shows the weak areas of the Giants farm system, SS and OF. Brandon Crawford may still do something at SS, plus Ehire Adrianza might push his way on the list there too, and Roger Kieschnick, Wendell Fairley, and Rafael Rodriguez could make their way onto OF lists next season, but for now the talent is not that obvious nor is it high in the system. Those would be areas that we should look to pick up in the next draft, as we got the #6 pick overall and #52 pick overall (for now, depends if any more supplemental picks are awarded), and as noted in just recent posts, there is three currently high ranked amateurs who play those positions: Grant Green SS, Dustin Ackley CF/1B, Donovan Tate CF.
Of course, we still have Emmanuel Burriss at SS (possibly) and Nate Schierholtz in RF, so we are not totally barren of young talent at SS and OF, but Burriss is not a sure thing to be a shortstop, either short-term or long-term, and Schierholtz's value comes from HR power that he has not shown thus far in the majors, but has given some hints with the doubles he's been getting. Plus, he actually hit very well at home, it was all his games in Dodger Stadium and PetCo Park that hurt his road and overall numbers immensely (he slugged in Coors Field, naturally).
The Giants have turned around their moribund farm system in terms of position players in just three seasons, making good progress first in 2006, drafting Emmanuel Burriss, Michael McBryde, Ryan Rohlinger, Brian Bocock, and Matthew Downs, all of whom has some prospect status in our farm system, just not overall relative to all MLB prospects. Prospects like that are long-shots, though Burriss, Downs, and Rohlinger has shown some good offensive abilities that could translate to the majors. Plus, they made a significant signing, signing Angel Villalona, who has a lot of baseball talent.
Then in 2007, the Giants picked up Wendell Fairley, Nick Noonan, and Charlie Culberson. And they picked up their abundance of riches in 2008, with Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, plus signing Rafael Rodriguez. In addition, somewhere in 2006-2007, they signed Ehire Adrianza. Hopefully the Giants can pick up another two good position players with their first two picks overall, plus pick up another position prospect or two from the Carribean again, and they should set us up very well for the early to mid-2010's.
Unfortunately, this dominance of the list will end in 8 months or so, when Lincecum will turn 25, and further drop when Matt Cain joins him in a year. Still, with 30 teams, on average each team has 1.67 top pitchers under 25 years of age, so two is right in there.
Position Players
There were also prospects top among position players:
C: Buster Posey was 4th behind Brian McCann, Matt Weiters, and Dioner Navarro, and McCann and Navarro will turn 25 soon. Pablo Sandoval was 8th. Posey was 2nd overall among catching prospects.
1B: Nobody ranked in the Top 10 under 25 category. Angel Villalona was ranked 14th among Top 15 Firstbase prospects, but was put down for his overall seasonal stats by the site's analysts. Travis Ishikawa was listed among honorable mentions.
2B: Nick Noonan got honorable mention and was 7th among top 2B prospects for 2009.
3B: Conor Gillaspie got honorable mention for both Top under 25 and Top 15 Third Base Prospects. Not sure how he pulled off both of them, but he did.
SS: Nobody ranked in the Top 10 under 25 category or Top 15 SS Prospects.
CF: Dustin Ackley got honorable mention and he's one of the names popping up as a possible pick for the Giants #6 pick for the 2009 amateur draft. Nobody currently in the Giants farm got a ranking in the Top 10 under 25 category or Top 15 CF Prospects.
OF: Nobody ranked in the Top 10 under 25 category or Top 15 OF Prospects.
Giants Thoughts
Giants have a great crop of starting pitchers and look to have at least two for the next four to eight years. That will lead to a dominating rotation that will make it that much easier for the lineup to score just enough runs to win the division and get into the playoffs.
The most shocking ranking was Angel Villalona, who have made a number of top 50-100 rankings (McKamey 61st out of 100; Baseball Prospectus 47th out of 100; Baseball America has also been high on him before, he was in all of their writers' Top 50 list for 2008) but was only 14th among 1B prospects here. This shows the dichotomy between saber-driven sources, like Project Prospect, and sources that incorporate scouting reports and projections, like McKamey and BP.
I am not sure where Villalona ranks for Baseball America for 2009 (don't have their book yet) but in a chat during the year, one of their writers noted during mid-2008: "Villalona has shown he's not overmatched as a 17-year-old in a full-season league, which is impressive on its own. He just struggles with righthanded pitching right now (whereas he's slugging .594 against lefties). He may wear down as the season goes on, but he'll probably end up with around 15 home runs and I wouldn't fret too much about wherever his final numbers end up." As I've noted, he had his best month of the season in his last month.
They also noted in the Sally League Top 20: "Yes, some people question Villalona's maturity, but he was 17 for most of the year, so he gets a pass. He looked much better, both physically and at the plate, during the second half of the season, which should bode well for the future. He's still learning how to be a professional."
This list also shows the weak areas of the Giants farm system, SS and OF. Brandon Crawford may still do something at SS, plus Ehire Adrianza might push his way on the list there too, and Roger Kieschnick, Wendell Fairley, and Rafael Rodriguez could make their way onto OF lists next season, but for now the talent is not that obvious nor is it high in the system. Those would be areas that we should look to pick up in the next draft, as we got the #6 pick overall and #52 pick overall (for now, depends if any more supplemental picks are awarded), and as noted in just recent posts, there is three currently high ranked amateurs who play those positions: Grant Green SS, Dustin Ackley CF/1B, Donovan Tate CF.
Of course, we still have Emmanuel Burriss at SS (possibly) and Nate Schierholtz in RF, so we are not totally barren of young talent at SS and OF, but Burriss is not a sure thing to be a shortstop, either short-term or long-term, and Schierholtz's value comes from HR power that he has not shown thus far in the majors, but has given some hints with the doubles he's been getting. Plus, he actually hit very well at home, it was all his games in Dodger Stadium and PetCo Park that hurt his road and overall numbers immensely (he slugged in Coors Field, naturally).
The Giants have turned around their moribund farm system in terms of position players in just three seasons, making good progress first in 2006, drafting Emmanuel Burriss, Michael McBryde, Ryan Rohlinger, Brian Bocock, and Matthew Downs, all of whom has some prospect status in our farm system, just not overall relative to all MLB prospects. Prospects like that are long-shots, though Burriss, Downs, and Rohlinger has shown some good offensive abilities that could translate to the majors. Plus, they made a significant signing, signing Angel Villalona, who has a lot of baseball talent.
Then in 2007, the Giants picked up Wendell Fairley, Nick Noonan, and Charlie Culberson. And they picked up their abundance of riches in 2008, with Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, plus signing Rafael Rodriguez. In addition, somewhere in 2006-2007, they signed Ehire Adrianza. Hopefully the Giants can pick up another two good position players with their first two picks overall, plus pick up another position prospect or two from the Carribean again, and they should set us up very well for the early to mid-2010's.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Giants News: San Jose Topped Out and Lineup Change
Could the San Francisco Giants of 2012 be in San Jose in 2009? As reported in the San Jose Mercury today by the intrepid Andy Baggarly, the Giants top prospects will all be in San Jose to start the 2009 season. Check out this roster studded with top prospects:
- Tim Alderson
- Madison Bumgarner
- Brandon Crawford
- Conor Gillaspie
- Roger Kieschnick
- Nick Noonan
- Buster Posey
- Angel Villalona
In addition, Darren Ford and Thomas Neal would fill out the rest of the lineup.
I was wrong in thinking they would put Alderson, Bumgarner, and Posey in AA to start in 2009. I had heard rumblings that they might hold back Bumgarner and Posey because of the cold in Connecticut, and should have heeded them. Alderson was the biggest surprise because he did so well in San Jose last season (led league in ERA if I remember right), but as Baggarley reported:
They won't be together for long, though. Alderson, who won the ERA title in the California League last year, is returning because Giants officials want to shield their elite prospects from the cold at Double-A Connecticut.
Once the weather warms up in New England, Alderson will be on his way. And others could join him.
Sabean noted that times have changed:
"Years ago it was standard that a kid had to master his level, and most of
the time, spend the whole year at one spot," Giants General Manager Brian Sabean
said. "Now, if you think he's ahead of schedule, it's really incumbent to move
him. With the Yankees, we had Bernie Williams (stalled for years) at Double-A.
That's not going to happen anymore."
Lineup Changes, For Now
It was also noted that Bochy is now thinking Lewis and Sandoval could swap spots with Lewis batting third, where his speed can be utilized, and Sandoval batting fifth.
Giants Thoughts
In the end, it wasn't that surprising that all the top prospects ended up in San Jose. I think it is a sign of the dissatisfaction that the Giants have had with the AA franchise, and particularly their park, Dodd Stadium, which I've written extensively about the problems with that ballpark. I can't recall if it was rumored or true, but the AA team could be sold soon and moved to Richmond, in the South, where the Braves left that city (I wonder if the Giants engineered all that), and where it should be much warmer (BP has the park effects there as neutral).
And this is a dream team of epic proportions for the Giants, we have never had so many top prospects on just one team, plus we have not had so many prospects considered top prospects period, so this could be the best minor league team the Giants have ever gathered together in the past 40 years or so. I will have to make sure I make one of the games before any get shipped out to AA.
I was also surprised that Crawford ended up on San Jose too. Given how far back he was drafted and how disappointing he was in college, I thought he might get put at Augusta in A-ball. But the allure of having all the prospects playing together for at least a month or two was probably too appealing to the Giants. I had thought about that but thought it was a pipe dream because Alderson was ready to move up, and Bumgarner and Posey looked ready.
Too bad Wendell Fairley did not do much better last year, otherwise they might have put him in San Jose too. That would have been really loaded, then, with our top prospects. I think only Henry Sosa and Ehire Adrianza are the only other top prospects that come to mind immediately who are not there (besides Ishikawa and Romo, who both should be in the majors this season).
The lineup switch makes some sense. Lewis would be easier to drive in than Sandoval at that lineup position. However, lineup valuation study showed that getting on base in the 3rd spot of the lineup does not yield as many runs as other top lineup spots. This is probably related to the fact that a large percentage of the time, the third hitter will come up with two outs, nobody on base. That is why I was OK with Sandoval batting third, should he falter in batting average, it won't hurt the offense as much there as batting fifth.
However, right now, he profiles to hit for more power than Lewis (though Lewis reportedly has muscled up for 2009 and is aiming for 20 HR), and that makes 5th ideal then for him too, as that is a position where there is often runners on base for him to drive in.
But most lineup analyses have found that swapping around hitters usually don't amount to much change in the scoring, I've seen some that said the best hitter should hit 2nd in the lineup, I've seen others that best power 4th and best OBP 1st, then there are those that say that swapping the 8th hitter with the pitcher is better as well, and then there were others that said no matter what you do, it won't matter much.
I'm just looking forward to 2009, it will be an exciting season both in the majors, and now, especially so in the minors.
Go Giants!
Friday, February 06, 2009
Scouting Buster Posey and Angel Villalona
B3: Big, Bald and Beautiful has been posting scouting reports on Jonathan Mayo's Top 50 prospect list that I had posted on before and has covered Madison Bumgarner (#6), Buster Posey (#19) and Angel Villalona (#47).
Here is what a scout had to say about Madison:
Here is what a scout had to say about Madison:
Fastball: 89-94 mph; Slider: 77-82 mph; Changeup: 77-78 mph
Fastball consistently 91-93 mph with tail. Can cut it as additional weapon. Good location, not afraid to go upstairs with it. Smooth delivery, fastball gets on hitter in a hurry. Slider is hard and down, almost a power curve action to it. Didn't need changeup much, it's a work in progress. Some small mechanical flaws, but nothing major to worry about. [This was in May, early when he started doing well; would have been better if at end of season, to see if he had developed anything extra]
Here is what a scout had to say about Buster:
Great instincts and makeup. Natural leader. A little mechanical, but does everything right. Outstanding hitting approach, makes good adjustments. Can go other way when needed. Power will come. Moves well behind plate, will catch strikes. Arm works, fringe plus. Combination of bat and defense should make him solid-average to plus Major League backstop. [seen in October in Hawaiian Winter League]
Here is what a scout had to say about Angel:
Seen over five-game stretch. ... Extremely strong, can hit ball out without difficulty. Easy, pull stroke through zone. Kills mistakes. Plus, plus raw power. Little hitch in swing with hole on inside. Some trouble with offspeed stuff away, but showed improvement. Good arm at 1B, soft hands. Must watch weight. [seen in late May, before he started getting it in August]
Giants Thoughts
Much of the talk above has already been said about each prospect, so I'll focus on what I see as key points.
Here is what a scout had to say about Buster:
Great instincts and makeup. Natural leader. A little mechanical, but does everything right. Outstanding hitting approach, makes good adjustments. Can go other way when needed. Power will come. Moves well behind plate, will catch strikes. Arm works, fringe plus. Combination of bat and defense should make him solid-average to plus Major League backstop. [seen in October in Hawaiian Winter League]
Here is what a scout had to say about Angel:
Seen over five-game stretch. ... Extremely strong, can hit ball out without difficulty. Easy, pull stroke through zone. Kills mistakes. Plus, plus raw power. Little hitch in swing with hole on inside. Some trouble with offspeed stuff away, but showed improvement. Good arm at 1B, soft hands. Must watch weight. [seen in late May, before he started getting it in August]
Giants Thoughts
Much of the talk above has already been said about each prospect, so I'll focus on what I see as key points.
- Angel: "Kills mistakes". While that is good, as he rises, he will see less and less mistakes, so he still has a lot to learn. Still, Bonds only got to see one mistake per game himself and he did pretty well in spite of that. "Plus, plus raw power" Has been said before, but want to emphasize this because some reports have doubted his power potential. This confirms the 40 HR power potential noted when he first was signed.
- Buster: "Natural leader." I think every team will need a leader, so if Buster can make it, he could be our team leader for the next decade probably. On top of that, he would be leading our great rotations of the future. "Outstanding hitting approach, makes good adjustments." He is advertised as a plus hitter, good to see how good this scout thinks, plus a player who can make adjustments is one of the key ingredients of a MLB starting regular. "Power will come." Most commentary has denigrated his power, so this is a key point, I think, between him being plus offensively versus average. "Combination of bat and defense should make him solid-average to plus Major League backstop." Another good commentary. It is not impossibe that he could be a major disappoint if he doesn't develop into at least a solid-average catcher. This scout confirms the other's impressions that he is pretty good.
- Madison: "Fastball consistently 91-93 mph with tail. Can cut it as additional weapon." That is a good weapon to have. "Good location, not afraid to go upstairs with it." Many pitchers are afraid, it is good when a pitcher is confident of his stuff and using it to good effect. "Smooth delivery, fastball gets on hitter in a hurry." That is shown by how many batters he struck out, but not every pitcher have a fastball that gets on a hitter in a hurry, those are the special ones. "Didn't need changeup much, it's a work in progress." Most pitchers need at least three good pitches to succeed in the majors and he basically has two, his fastball and his slider, which is like a power curve. He needs to work on the changeup, maybe he should speak with Lincecum since Tim figured it out pretty fast. "Some small mechanical flaws, but nothing major to worry about." That's good to hear.
I'm getting excited for the 2009 season!
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Baseball Prospectus's Giants Top 11 Prospects
BP nicely provides their Top 11 list on-line here. The list:
- Madison Bumgarner (Five Star prospect)
- Buster Posey (Five Star prospect)
- Angel Villalona (Five Star prospect)
- Tim Alderson (Four Star prospect)
- Rafael Rodriguez (Three Star prospect)
- Conor Gillaspie (Three Star prospect)
- Nick Noonan (Three Star prospect)
- Travis Ishikawa (Three Star prospect)
- Henry Sosa (Three Star prospect)
- Sergio Romo (Three Star prospect)
- Roger Kieschnick (Two Star prospect)
Just missed were Ehire Adrianza SS, Wendell Fairley OF, and Joseph Martinez RHP.
Kevin Goldstein notes:
Additional comments on other prospects in the comment section:Bumgarner is an obvious number one, but Posey isn't all that far behind him.
Some might flip-flop Villalona and Alderson at three and four, but I can't see
either player ranked lower that those two slots. Where Rodriguez slots in is
really a matter of your evaluation philosophy, but after that, it's anything
goes for the remaining six—Adrianza was the only player close enough to almost
make the list.
- Ehire Adrianza: "Absolutely outstanding defensive prospect, but there are tons of questions about his bat."
- Wendell Fairley: "The jury is still out on Fairley. He's toolsy as all get out, but a long way from being a baseball player."
- Scott Barnes: "I'm perfectly fine with somebody calling him a sleeper. It's not a huge surprise that he ripped through some low levels because of his polish, but the stuff is hardly pedestrian. He's solid across the board with an average-to-plus fastball and decent secondary stuff and he knows what he's doing out there. He could exceed expectations."
- Pablo Sandoval: "I really think 1B is his only option, to the point that he might fit a bit better on a AL team. I do think he can hit enough to be an every day first baseman, certainly at least on this team.".
Giants Thoughts
That was my Top 5 but I had Ishikawa 6th while he had Gillaspie 6th and Ishikawa 8th. I basically agree with what he wrote, based on what I've read about the prospects and their career data, as available.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Top 15 Giants Prospects - Baseball Intellect
Baseball Intellect's Alex Eisenberg has filled the void of analyzing prospect mechanics since Carlos Gomez hung up his Bullpen Mechanics and took a scouting job with a major league team and he has done it well. Recently, he published his Giants Top 15 prospects, 1-5 here and 6-15 here.
Giants Top 15 Prospects
Giants Top 15 Prospects
- Madison Bumgarner. Body type is strong, durable, athletic and projectable. His player grade is A- and his fastball was rated 65 now and 70 in future (on scout's 20-80 scale), curveball 45/55, change-up 35/45, Control 50/55, Command 50/60, and Pitchability 45/55. His fastball is electric and he can spot it where he wants. He shows plus-plus velocity at times and he's able to hide the ball well, making it hard for hitters to see it coming out of his hand. "Bottom line... Bumgarner has a chance to be special, especially if he can continue to hone his secondary offerings. Best case outcome - No. 1 starter; More likely outcome - No. 2 starter"
- Buster Posey. Body type is athletic, especially for a catcher, but also a heavier lower half; he has room to fill out his frame. His player grade is B+ with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 45/55, Speed 40/40, Defense 55/60, Arm 55/55, Instincts 50/60. He "possesses good footwork around the plate and projects to be an at least average defensive catcher with the potential to become plus." "While the power ouput is still in question, Posey should be able to hit 35+ doubles along with around 15-20 homeruns on a regular basis. When you combine this with a solid batting average and the willingness/ability to take a walk, Posey looks like a pretty good offensive player... Posey could move quickly." "Best Case Outcome - Top 5 catcher, potential all-star; More Likely Outcome - Top 12 catcher... he's a very good offensive catcher, but there are still questions for exactly how much power he'll hit for."
- Tim Alderson. Body type is tall, but coordinated and athletic. His player grade is B+ with his Fastball rated 50/55 (now/future), Curveball 50/60, Change-Up 40/45, Control 50/60, Command 45/55, Pitchability 50/60. "Overall, he's deceptive, hard to pick up, stays closed. This deceptiveness makes his fastball seem much more explosive. ... his stuff isn't overpowering but it plays up because of his command, intellect, and mechanics. Best Case Outcome - No. 2 starter; More Likely Outcome - Strong No. 3 starter."
- Pablo Sandoval. Not qualified to call a prospect, but include because he's interesting player. Body type is short, but heavy, with little projection. His player grade is B/B+ with his Contact rated 55/55 (now/future), Power 50/50, Discipline 40/45, Speed 40/40, Defense 50/50, Arm 60/60, Instincts 45/50. He really likes Sandoval's swing, leading to a "very nice combination of contact/batting average and power Sandoval's drawbacks is his plate discipline. He's a high contact hitter, but also doesn't walk much and needs to be a little more selective... he does show an ability, however, to adjust to off-speed pitches. ... Best Case Outcome - The potential is there to be a top-5 catcher, but he becomes an average player at first base and a top-12 player at third base. If he were slated to play catcher, I would move his grade to B+; More Likely Outcome - Top-10 catcher, slightly below average first baseman, or average thirdbaseman.
- Angel Villalona. Body type is big kid, needs to watch his weight, but he's only 17; however, is he that projectable? His player grade is B and his Contact is rated 40/50 (now/future), Power 50/60-65, Discipline 35/45, Speed 40/35, Defense 50/50, Arm 55/55, Instincts 35/45. He was extremely young for his level, so his ordinary numbers aren't too big a deal. Show strong power already but he's still very raw in the aspects of baseball where experience really helps, like his plate discipline, low walks, high strikeouts. His raw power rates as plus to plus-plus, and he shows terrific bat speed, a mechanically sound swing, and the ability to make hard contact. Already physically mature, he is not your typical ultra-talented, projectable athlete displaying his natural ability at a young age; he's already limited to first base. "Best Case Outcome - Middle of the line-up bat; Most Likely Outcome - Average to slightly above average everyday first baseman."
- Henry Sosa. Body type is lanky, smallish build. Player grade is B/B- with his Fastball rated 55/60 (now/future), Curveball 45/55, Change-Up 35-40/45, Control 40/45, Command 45/55, Pitchability 45/50. Boasts perhaps the second best arm in the entire system, but the biggest question was his control, which he made strides to improve, though another issue is his ability to get deep into games. "Best Case Outcome - No. 3 starter; Most Likely Outcome - Set-up man."
- Conor Gillaspie. Player grade is B- with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/45-50, Discipline 50/55, Speed 45/45, Defense 40/50, Arm 50/50, Instincts 55/60. Has the potential to hit for a high batting average and already possesses strong plate discipline, but his power is still a question mark and he's below average defensively at third, though that should improve as he gets more experience there given his athleticism and work ethic, as his arm is solid enough. His value would increase if he were moved to second base, and he thinks he can handle the change; however, the Giants have Noonan slotted for 2B. "Best Case Outcome - Average everyday third baseman or above average second baseman; More Likely Outcome - Really good utility player... think about the way Mark DeRosa has been utilized over the course of his career.
- Nick Noonan. Body type is athletic and projectable. Player grade is B- and his Contact is rated 40/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 35/45, Speed 50/50, Defense 55/55, Arm 45/45, Instincts 50/55. Similar to Gillaspie but more upside in power, younger, and better defense; however, he has very little plate discipline, getting him the lower ranking. Feels he could end up with 15-20 homer power eventually with adjustments. Should be above average defensive player eventually, and could step in at shortstop if necessary. Excellent base runner, with 47 stolen bases in 54 attempts during his career. "Best Case Outcome - Above average everyday second baseman. More Likely Outcome - Average everyday second baseman... his worse case outcome is utility player role"
- Kevin Pucetas. Body type is big and lacking projection. Player grade is B- and his Fastball is rated 50/50 (now/future), Curveball 45/50, Slider 40/45, Change-Up 55/55, Control 50/55, Command 45/50, Pitchability 55/55. "Pucetas is a four-pitch pitcher and doesn't have spectacular stuff, but it's good enough to eventually get out major leaguers. ... His best pitch is his change-up, which shows good tumbling action and an excellent differentiation between the speed of his fastball... Best Case Outcome - No. 4 starter; More Likely Outcome - Quality middle reliever"
- Roger Kieschnick. Body type is big, strong, and athletic. Potential 5-tool player, but he's a low contact hitter. "Best Case Outcome - Average right fielder... he's got the tools, but he's a major long shot to hone them all; More Likely Outcome - Fourth outfielder... he's good enough at other things to provide some value to a major league team"
- Scott Barnes. Most impressive was how dominant he was in his first professional season, despite inconsistent and somewhat stiff mechanics from his draft video. We'll get an idea of whether his performance was for real or just small samples in 2009. Player grade C+
- Ehire Adrianza. "Here is a sleeper candidate for you...Adrianza is a shortstop with a very strong glove and an athletic, projectable build. The power isn't there yet, but he's shown excellent plate discipline in his young career, displaying both the ability to take a walk and make contact. He has a very short swing, but it's going to make hitting for power, as well as hitting the ball with true authority very difficult. ... He's a long way off, but good defense at shorstop combined with good plate discipline is a solid building block for a player to start from. Grade C
- Aaron King. "King's mechanics are somewhat unorthodox and there are issues to iron out. ... Problems aside, there is a lot to like: King is young, projectable, athletic, left handed, seems to have an understanding of getting the body going and throwing with intent, and sports a low 90's, sinking fastball with the potential to add more velocity. He's risky, but he's worth taking a shot on. Grade - C
- Wendell Fairley. "Fairley was mostly a disappointment last season. He showed little pop--just an .076 ISO-power and a .314 BABIP--and he hit the ball on the ground far too often. Fairley does have good tools...he's fast, athletic, has good bat speed,but his tools never really showed up in the actual games. He has to adjust his swing plane/path to have more lift after contact. One positive was he walked quite a bit, so it was somewhat of a mystery as to why he didn't use his speed more. Something to take away from last season: the final month of the season, Fairley walked in 16% of his plate appearances, while striking out in just 12% of his PAs. We'll see if he can carry that success over to next year. Grade - C"
- Brandown Crawford. This he offered only to subscribers, so I'll include the whole thing. "Crawford looks like an intriguing player. He's a shortstop with some pop and patience. But there are some major red flags. I'm not sure of the exact number, but I don't think the success rate of players with significantly more strikeouts than walks is good, especially when that player has no other plus skill. Crawford struggles to make contact mainly because he struggled to center the ball last year as well as failing to recognize off-speed stuff. He would often get too far out in front. His swing is also a little armsy as he doesn't use his lower as efficiently as he could. Defensively, he lost a little bit of range a year ago, but he has good hands and fields what he gets to. He's not a bad guy to take a chance on because it could be he just had a off year in 2008, but I would say his chance at success is small unless he shows an improved ability to make contact. Grade - C"
I also asked him about Ishikawa, who missed the cut for this because he had too many AB by Alex's standards (100 AB): "I think he's a useful player. Good power, good patience, will strike out, won't hit for a high average...apparently he's good defensively though I haven't seen his defense...I think he's ultimately a platoon guy because he does have a pretty big lefty/righty split (and that is exactly how the Giants used him last year)...his bat isn't good enough to play first base everyday. If I were to rate him, he would be the team's No. 9 prospect and a B- prospect."
Not too bad, gives some hope for the future, though that future looks like a platoon, as most analysis has tagged him as that. But there is some value in that, and perhaps he can be a key trading chip later, or even figure out how to hit LHP.
Monday, December 08, 2008
Giants Got 3 of Top 50 2009 Prospects
MLB.com started publishing a Top 50 prospect list last season, and just recently released their version for the 2009 season. Last year we didn't have anybody on the list but this year we have three, Madison Bumgarner at 6th, Buster Posey at 19th, and Angel Villalona at 48th. Here is what they said about each:
Scouting report: The left-hander debuted in pro ball with one pitch -- though that offering was a plus, plus fastball that easily hits the mid-90s with good late life. His curve and slider have shown great progress and the changeup is improving as well, though perhaps lags a bit behind the others. He also has excellent command on both sides of the plate. His work ethic is off the charts and he has excellent mound presence.
Upside potential: The kind of left-handed ace that everyone wants, but few possess.
ETA: 2011
They said it: "I'm running out of superlatives. I've never seen a player do the things he's done. I've never seen a player grow that fast and quickly. What he did was staggering. ... That's an unstoppable force, when you have that kind of talent and that kind of desire to get better. I think he's going to be a very special player for a very long time at the Major League level." -- Augusta GreenJackets Manager Andy Skeels
He said it: "It just kind of clicked. You just have to have confidence in what you're doing. If you don't believe in yourself, you're not going to be able to get it done. ... There's a lot of improvement to make. Even if I had a 0.50 ERA, there'd still be room to improve."
Awards/Honors:
11/24/2008 MLB.com Class A Starting Pitcher of the Year
10/02/2008 Baseball America High Class A All-Star
09/12/2008 Minor League Baseball Most Spectacular Pitcher
09/05/2008 Baseball America Minor League All-Star
08/26/2008 SAL Most Outstanding Pitcher
08/26/2008 SAL Post-Season All-Star
08/18/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
08/04/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
07/21/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
06/23/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
06/17/2008 SAL Mid-Season All-Star
06/16/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
#19 Buster Posey
Statistically speaking: In a whirlwind year that saw him play in the rookie-level Arizona League, the short-season Northwest League, the Class A Advanced California League and Hawaiian Winter Baseball, Posey made the most of his 128 total at-bats by hitting .328 with 23 RBIs in 34 games.
Scouting report: Very athletic catcher who used to be a shortstop. Has an advanced hitting approach, good strike zone knowledge, and should hit for average with some power. Ability to use all fields for extra-base pop.
Upside potential: Top all-around catcher who reaches the Majors quickly and stays for a long time.
ETA: 2010
They said it: "For him to come in and get three weeks of baseball in before the season ended, play in three different places, was not an easy task. He showed us he's very much ready for this level. The impact and impression he made in a brief time was very good. He's incredibly advanced in his way of approaching the game and his bat. He continues to show us why he achieved what he did at the collegiate level." -- Bobby Evans, Giants director of player personnel
He said it: "I'm learning to go with the flow a little bit and keep things in perspective. I'm still getting the chance to play the game that I love." -- On adjusting to the pro game in his first summer.
Awards/Honors:
11/16/2008 HWB Post-Season All-Star
#48 Angel Villalona
Statistically speaking: His overall numbers may not seem overwhelming, but he really turned it on as the season wore on. As he turned 18 in August, the big first baseman hit .308 and slugged .529 with five homers and 20 RBIs in 27 games.
Scouting report: A big, strong first baseman with plus, plus raw power from the right side. Has a chance to be an above-average hitter but will have to watch conditioning, which was much improved over the course of his first full season. Made a nice transition from third to first base.
Upside potential: An All-Star first baseman who hits in the middle of the lineup and hits 30-plus homers and drives in more than 100 runs annually.
ETA: 2012
They said it: "You come out of Spring Training and they're so young and never experienced a full season, so you don't know what you're going to get. For someone that young, it's a testament to what our staff did and a testament to the kind of kid Angel is. He's a tremendous talent and he dedicated himself much better to becoming a professional." -- Augusta GreenJackets manager Andy Skeels
Awards/Honors:
07/13/2008 Futures Game Selection
05/19/2008 SAL Player of the Week
Giants Thoughts
That is part of the beauty of having a Top 10 draft pick overall, getting them onto lists like these. And remember, Lincecum would normally be making a list like this around now instead of winning the Cy Young award, as it normally take 2-3 years for most TOP prospects to make the majors. For him to make it to the majors after a little more than a month or two of pro play is highly accelerated, and yet he was clearly ready.
Judging by how well Bumgarner did in Augusta, I think that he's clearly ready as well. Hopefully they jump him to AA Connecticut and team him up with Alderson. If he does as well there, he should make the jump to AAA by mid-season, and could make the majors early depending on how our #5 starter situation works out this off-season: if we have an unproven #5 starter instead of signing a free agent, Bumgarner could push to take his spot, even if that #5 is doing well. I think he will be that good. And I think we will see him, particularly if we are competitive, as I now expect, and especially if we are contending, as we will need all the help we can get.
With the 'Dres, D-backs, and D-Rox retrenching and LA apparently hung up on what they are going to do, but losing much of the rotation without much talk of how to replace them, the NL West could be won by a .500 team again (or worse, sub-.500 team) and the Giants are poised to be in that winning percentage range. Bumgarner could come up and give us extra OOMPH, whether starting or relieving, as the season heads into the stretch run. Perhaps Alderson too, he had the best ERA in the California League himself, so he's no slouch either. That was a great draft just for the two of them, let alone also getting Noonan and Fairley.
I'm not sure why he ranked lower than Jason Heyward, though, who was third. They described Madison as the "ace that everyone wants, but few posess." However, the best they could say about Heyward is "All-Star-caliber right fielder". Also, he wasn't even the best hitter in the Sally League, whereas Bumgarner was not only the best in the league but had the best ERA in all of the minors.
They also had Rick Porcello ranked higher than Bumgarner. I undertstand that partially, as he pitched very well in a higher level, Advanced A, but let's compare Porcello with Alderson, who is a year older but also in his first pro season and also started out in Advanced A after being in high school the year before.
Porcello: 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 2.2 K/BB, 2.48 GO/AO, 125.0 IP
Alderson: 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 3.6 K/BB, 1.20 GO/AO, 145.1 IP
Alderson had a slightly higher ERA, but lower WHIP, much higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, much higher K/BB ratio, and pitched more innings. Yet Porcello was ranked 4th above Bumgarner and Alderson didn't even make the Top 50 list.
Of course, having a mid-90's fastball helped Porcello's case greatly, but still, the minors are littered with pitchers who have mid-90's heat but could never figure out how to get out major league batters with it. With such a low strikeout rate, I would think that does not bode well for Porcello moving up, if he can't get Advanced A guys to miss the ball, how can he expect hitters higher to miss?
Then again, he has a redonkulous groundout to flyout ratio, that helps to make up for the low strikeout rate. Apparently he fooled the hitters well enough to get them to ground out a tremendous amount of time. I wonder if the Giants would have selected him with the pick they used on Fairley had Porcello fell to them? It was close, the Tigers picked just a couple of picks before. Still, hard to argue with the Giants decision to select Bumgarner and Alderson over Porcello, they both arguably did better than Porcello did in their first season.
Buster Posey was the highest ranked prospect from his draft class, just beating out Brian Matusz, who was 20th, and Tim Beckham, who was 22nd. Alvarez didn't even rank and Hosmer was 29th. A 2010 ETA is just perfect as Molina's contract is over in 2009. That suggests that Posey does well enough in AA to move to AAA by mid-to-late season, then take over in the majors in 2010. Though I guess alternatively, that means he is in AA in 2009 and AAA in 2010, until getting a September call-up, making this ETA come true too.
It will be interesting to see how he does in AA in 2009, assuming he goes there, have to assume he does as he should go wherever Steve Decker goes (former catcher, tutored Sandoval on the art of catching). With Dodd Stadium's horrible effects on hitters' power, you have to wonder if that will cause Posey to press and do poorly. That will surely less his mettle early in his pro career. As well as Bowker, Sandoval and Ishikawa did there the past two seasons, they did even better on the road relative to their home numbers, which were severely depressed because of the dampening on their power. Posey isn't a homerun hitter, or not projected to be a big one in the majors, but he should be hitting for power.
In Villalona's case, the potential is down but still good: here he's mentioned as a future All-Star firstbaseman with 30+ homers. They have an ETA for him of 2012. He was one of the youngest players in the Sally League, turning 18 late in the season - only Michael Almanzar was younger - and thus would be 21 years old for the 2012 season, very young, and still, that's conservative, assuming he rises one level per year. As I mentioned before in a prior post/comment, he did better at lower-A than Justin Upton and yet was younger, and Justin was in the majors the next season. I'm not saying Villalona will necessarily make the majors in 2009, but I have to think sooner than 2012.
None of these guys should not be prospects for 2010, so I wonder how many we will have in the list next season. Assuming they continue to earn a spot in the Top 50, they could be joined by at least Tim Alderson next season, plus Rafael Rodriguez will be having his first professional season and could join with a very good first season, as he could perhaps wow in his first experience as a pro. Henry Sosa, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, Brandon Crawford, Nick Noonan, and Wendell Fairley could also make the list if they perform well enough in 2008. I would also throw out the names Ehire Adrianza and Hector Sanchez as well.
#6 Madison Bumgarner
Statistically speaking: It's hard to imagine a better statistical season than Bumgarner's first full professional campaign. He led the Minors with his 1.46 ERA, was third in strikeouts with 164 and tied for fifth in wins with 15. He was seventh with a 10.42 K/9 ratio and led lefties in all the aforementioned categories.Scouting report: The left-hander debuted in pro ball with one pitch -- though that offering was a plus, plus fastball that easily hits the mid-90s with good late life. His curve and slider have shown great progress and the changeup is improving as well, though perhaps lags a bit behind the others. He also has excellent command on both sides of the plate. His work ethic is off the charts and he has excellent mound presence.
Upside potential: The kind of left-handed ace that everyone wants, but few possess.
ETA: 2011
They said it: "I'm running out of superlatives. I've never seen a player do the things he's done. I've never seen a player grow that fast and quickly. What he did was staggering. ... That's an unstoppable force, when you have that kind of talent and that kind of desire to get better. I think he's going to be a very special player for a very long time at the Major League level." -- Augusta GreenJackets Manager Andy Skeels
He said it: "It just kind of clicked. You just have to have confidence in what you're doing. If you don't believe in yourself, you're not going to be able to get it done. ... There's a lot of improvement to make. Even if I had a 0.50 ERA, there'd still be room to improve."
Awards/Honors:
11/24/2008 MLB.com Class A Starting Pitcher of the Year
10/02/2008 Baseball America High Class A All-Star
09/12/2008 Minor League Baseball Most Spectacular Pitcher
09/05/2008 Baseball America Minor League All-Star
08/26/2008 SAL Most Outstanding Pitcher
08/26/2008 SAL Post-Season All-Star
08/18/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
08/04/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
07/21/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
06/23/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
06/17/2008 SAL Mid-Season All-Star
06/16/2008 SAL Pitcher of the Week
#19 Buster Posey
Statistically speaking: In a whirlwind year that saw him play in the rookie-level Arizona League, the short-season Northwest League, the Class A Advanced California League and Hawaiian Winter Baseball, Posey made the most of his 128 total at-bats by hitting .328 with 23 RBIs in 34 games.
Scouting report: Very athletic catcher who used to be a shortstop. Has an advanced hitting approach, good strike zone knowledge, and should hit for average with some power. Ability to use all fields for extra-base pop.
Upside potential: Top all-around catcher who reaches the Majors quickly and stays for a long time.
ETA: 2010
They said it: "For him to come in and get three weeks of baseball in before the season ended, play in three different places, was not an easy task. He showed us he's very much ready for this level. The impact and impression he made in a brief time was very good. He's incredibly advanced in his way of approaching the game and his bat. He continues to show us why he achieved what he did at the collegiate level." -- Bobby Evans, Giants director of player personnel
He said it: "I'm learning to go with the flow a little bit and keep things in perspective. I'm still getting the chance to play the game that I love." -- On adjusting to the pro game in his first summer.
Awards/Honors:
11/16/2008 HWB Post-Season All-Star
#48 Angel Villalona
Statistically speaking: His overall numbers may not seem overwhelming, but he really turned it on as the season wore on. As he turned 18 in August, the big first baseman hit .308 and slugged .529 with five homers and 20 RBIs in 27 games.
Scouting report: A big, strong first baseman with plus, plus raw power from the right side. Has a chance to be an above-average hitter but will have to watch conditioning, which was much improved over the course of his first full season. Made a nice transition from third to first base.
Upside potential: An All-Star first baseman who hits in the middle of the lineup and hits 30-plus homers and drives in more than 100 runs annually.
ETA: 2012
They said it: "You come out of Spring Training and they're so young and never experienced a full season, so you don't know what you're going to get. For someone that young, it's a testament to what our staff did and a testament to the kind of kid Angel is. He's a tremendous talent and he dedicated himself much better to becoming a professional." -- Augusta GreenJackets manager Andy Skeels
Awards/Honors:
07/13/2008 Futures Game Selection
05/19/2008 SAL Player of the Week
Giants Thoughts
That is part of the beauty of having a Top 10 draft pick overall, getting them onto lists like these. And remember, Lincecum would normally be making a list like this around now instead of winning the Cy Young award, as it normally take 2-3 years for most TOP prospects to make the majors. For him to make it to the majors after a little more than a month or two of pro play is highly accelerated, and yet he was clearly ready.
Judging by how well Bumgarner did in Augusta, I think that he's clearly ready as well. Hopefully they jump him to AA Connecticut and team him up with Alderson. If he does as well there, he should make the jump to AAA by mid-season, and could make the majors early depending on how our #5 starter situation works out this off-season: if we have an unproven #5 starter instead of signing a free agent, Bumgarner could push to take his spot, even if that #5 is doing well. I think he will be that good. And I think we will see him, particularly if we are competitive, as I now expect, and especially if we are contending, as we will need all the help we can get.
With the 'Dres, D-backs, and D-Rox retrenching and LA apparently hung up on what they are going to do, but losing much of the rotation without much talk of how to replace them, the NL West could be won by a .500 team again (or worse, sub-.500 team) and the Giants are poised to be in that winning percentage range. Bumgarner could come up and give us extra OOMPH, whether starting or relieving, as the season heads into the stretch run. Perhaps Alderson too, he had the best ERA in the California League himself, so he's no slouch either. That was a great draft just for the two of them, let alone also getting Noonan and Fairley.
I'm not sure why he ranked lower than Jason Heyward, though, who was third. They described Madison as the "ace that everyone wants, but few posess." However, the best they could say about Heyward is "All-Star-caliber right fielder". Also, he wasn't even the best hitter in the Sally League, whereas Bumgarner was not only the best in the league but had the best ERA in all of the minors.
They also had Rick Porcello ranked higher than Bumgarner. I undertstand that partially, as he pitched very well in a higher level, Advanced A, but let's compare Porcello with Alderson, who is a year older but also in his first pro season and also started out in Advanced A after being in high school the year before.
Porcello: 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 2.2 K/BB, 2.48 GO/AO, 125.0 IP
Alderson: 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 3.6 K/BB, 1.20 GO/AO, 145.1 IP
Alderson had a slightly higher ERA, but lower WHIP, much higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, much higher K/BB ratio, and pitched more innings. Yet Porcello was ranked 4th above Bumgarner and Alderson didn't even make the Top 50 list.
Of course, having a mid-90's fastball helped Porcello's case greatly, but still, the minors are littered with pitchers who have mid-90's heat but could never figure out how to get out major league batters with it. With such a low strikeout rate, I would think that does not bode well for Porcello moving up, if he can't get Advanced A guys to miss the ball, how can he expect hitters higher to miss?
Then again, he has a redonkulous groundout to flyout ratio, that helps to make up for the low strikeout rate. Apparently he fooled the hitters well enough to get them to ground out a tremendous amount of time. I wonder if the Giants would have selected him with the pick they used on Fairley had Porcello fell to them? It was close, the Tigers picked just a couple of picks before. Still, hard to argue with the Giants decision to select Bumgarner and Alderson over Porcello, they both arguably did better than Porcello did in their first season.
Buster Posey was the highest ranked prospect from his draft class, just beating out Brian Matusz, who was 20th, and Tim Beckham, who was 22nd. Alvarez didn't even rank and Hosmer was 29th. A 2010 ETA is just perfect as Molina's contract is over in 2009. That suggests that Posey does well enough in AA to move to AAA by mid-to-late season, then take over in the majors in 2010. Though I guess alternatively, that means he is in AA in 2009 and AAA in 2010, until getting a September call-up, making this ETA come true too.
It will be interesting to see how he does in AA in 2009, assuming he goes there, have to assume he does as he should go wherever Steve Decker goes (former catcher, tutored Sandoval on the art of catching). With Dodd Stadium's horrible effects on hitters' power, you have to wonder if that will cause Posey to press and do poorly. That will surely less his mettle early in his pro career. As well as Bowker, Sandoval and Ishikawa did there the past two seasons, they did even better on the road relative to their home numbers, which were severely depressed because of the dampening on their power. Posey isn't a homerun hitter, or not projected to be a big one in the majors, but he should be hitting for power.
In Villalona's case, the potential is down but still good: here he's mentioned as a future All-Star firstbaseman with 30+ homers. They have an ETA for him of 2012. He was one of the youngest players in the Sally League, turning 18 late in the season - only Michael Almanzar was younger - and thus would be 21 years old for the 2012 season, very young, and still, that's conservative, assuming he rises one level per year. As I mentioned before in a prior post/comment, he did better at lower-A than Justin Upton and yet was younger, and Justin was in the majors the next season. I'm not saying Villalona will necessarily make the majors in 2009, but I have to think sooner than 2012.
None of these guys should not be prospects for 2010, so I wonder how many we will have in the list next season. Assuming they continue to earn a spot in the Top 50, they could be joined by at least Tim Alderson next season, plus Rafael Rodriguez will be having his first professional season and could join with a very good first season, as he could perhaps wow in his first experience as a pro. Henry Sosa, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, Brandon Crawford, Nick Noonan, and Wendell Fairley could also make the list if they perform well enough in 2008. I would also throw out the names Ehire Adrianza and Hector Sanchez as well.
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