Your 2014 GIants: September Call-Ups

The Giants announced their call-ups (at least initial) today.  Congrats to:

• Juan Perez, OF, who has been yo-yo-ing all season long.  He'll get a fair number of late game substitution with Morse going out for defensive purposes.
• Chris Dominguez, 3B and 1B, his first time in the majors as he was not on the 40-man roster previously.  Ehire Adrianza was moved to the 60-day DL to make space on the 40-man.
• Guillermo Quiroz, C, got the call-up today, mainly, I think, because the Giants want to have three catchers available and Hector Sanchez is out for the season (and his future is uncertain too).  He probably would not have gotten the call if not for that, but at least he adds to his MLB pension with service days added.  Hanchez got moved to the 60-day DL to allow Quiroz onto the 40-man.
• Mike Kickham, LHP, was no surprise, he provides starting depth on roster and becomes the long relief pitcher on the team with Petit in the rotation and Lincecum focused on figuring out his kinks (not so good today, so more work to go).  If Petit should end up back at long relief, Kickham might see some regular middle relief work, and might get an appearance anyway, here and there, to stay sharp.
• Hunter Strickland, RHP, was the biggest addition for me because the Giants had previously noted that he could be a future closer.  It will be exciting to see how quickly Bochy gives him a chance to throw some leveraged outs, how much leeway he gives our possible future closer, important given that Romo will be a free agent after the season.  This could be Strickland's audition to get a role in next season's bullpen, which I frankly expect him to be in contention for in spring training, he hardly walked anyone this season (0.8 BB/9) and struck out a large amount (12.8 K/9) both of which bode well for success in the majors for him.  

Congrats and good luck to all the call-ups, hopefully they will be part of an exciting run to the playoffs.

Go Giants!

2013 Giants: July PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of July 2013, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Your 2013 Giants: Bobby Evans' News on Players

Evans was interviewed, Schulman tweeted info, blogger covered the news and gave his views.  I think he did a nice job and a great service to Giants fans:  http://aroundthefoghorn.com/2013/07/19/vp-bobby-evans-on-siriusxm-on-vogey-pence-brown-and-a-note-on-romo/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Trending

ogc thoughts


Vogie starts rehab in AA, shoot for return in early to mid August.  To me, that is big news, it is not that far from now potentially, the start of August is only 13 days away.  At that point, the Giants will have an interesting decision to make:  who losses their starting rotation job? 

Before it was easy to say Gaudin, as we need a long man, but he has one really well for us.  I agree with covechatter that it might be Zito, though my speculation on my blog was that he could be DFAed at that point, as we are still at a full 40-man and Vogie is on the 60-day DL and someone would have to be cleared off the island to bring back Vogie.  If Zito is DFAed, then I think Kickham would come up and be our long relief guy.

About Pence, I took it the opposite of the author, I viewed it as more that Evans hoped that we don't go south and have to consider such an issue.  But I agree that it was a non-comittal to Pence. 

I think the Giants are still on the fence, Pence's cold streak lately hasn't helped his cause, if he were still hitting like he were in April/May, I think it would be likely the Giants do pursue Pence, with QO at minimum, but I think they have a price in their head that they won't go over, and are willing to let free agency determine whether another team overpays for him or not. 

I still hope the Giants pursue Pence and be in the mix, but I don't want to pay him the market value that his arb awards portend, which is $17M per year.  Astros really screwed up with him on his arbs, set a bad precedence, I think.  But a 3-4 years deal in the $13-15M per year range is OK with me, as we need at least two good bats in the middle, Posey is clearly one, but Sandoval's weight and injury issues makes him iffy, and Belt, while he could be that bat for us someday, I don't know if he'll reach that point by the end of the season.

About Brown, that's been the Giants position with all prospects that they expect to play a significant role on the team in the near future, they have said that about Wilson, Bumgarner, Posey, at minimum that I remember.  They want them getting a lot of playing time and focused on improving themselves.

About Romo, I didn't take that to be a not solid commitment to Romo.  I view that more as an organizational stance, much like how Beane thinks closers are fungible and easily replaced.  This to me confirms that the Giants do not share Beane's (or saber's) view that closers can be easily replaced.  This to me means that the Giants, once they found their closer, will hold onto him as long as possible (and productive).  So I did not view that as a slight to Romo relative to Sabean's statement about LincecuCame here to share this link:  http://aroundthefoghorn.com/2013/07/19/vp-bobby-evans-on-siriusxm-on-vogey-pence-brown-and-a-note-on-romo/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Trending

Evans was interviewed, Schulman tweeted info, blogger covered the news and gave his views.  I think he did a nice job and a great service to Giants fans.

Vogie starts rehab in AA, shoot for return in early to mid August.  To me, that is big news, it is not that far from now potentially, the start of August is only 13 days away.  At that point, the Giants will have an interesting decision to make:  who losses their starting rotation job? 

Before it was easy to say Gaudin, as we need a long man, but he has one really well for us.  I agree with covechatter that it might be Zito, though my speculation on my blog was that he could be DFAed at that point, as we are still at a full 40-man and Vogie is on the 60-day DL and someone would have to be cleared off the island to bring back Vogie.  If Zito is DFAed, then I think Kickham would come up and be our long relief guy.

About Pence, I took it the opposite of the author, I viewed it as more that Evans hoped that we don't go south and have to consider such an issue.  But I agree that it was a non-comittal to Pence. 

I think the Giants are still on the fence, Pence's cold streak lately hasn't helped his cause, if he were still hitting like he were in April/May, I think it would be likely the Giants do pursue Pence, with QO at minimum, but I think they have a price in their head that they won't go over, and are willing to let free agency determine whether another team overpays for him or not. 

I still hope the Giants pursue Pence and be in the mix, but I don't want to pay him the market value that his arb awards portend, which is $17M per year.  Astros really screwed up with him on his arbs, set a bad precedence, I think.  But a 3-4 years deal in the $13-15M per year range is OK with me, as we need at least two good bats in the middle, Posey is clearly one, but Sandoval's weight and injury issues makes him iffy, and Belt, while he could be that bat for us someday, I don't know if he'll reach that point by the end of the season.

About Brown, that's been the Giants position with all prospects that they expect to play a significant role on the team in the near future, they have said that about Wilson, Bumgarner, Posey, at minimum that I remember.  They want them getting a lot of playing time and focused on improving themselves.

About Romo, I didn't take that to be a not solid commitment to Romo.  I view that more as an organizational stance, much like how Beane thinks closers are fungible and easily replaced.  This to me confirms that the Giants do not share Beane's (or saber's) view that closers can be easily replaced.  This to me means that the Giants, once they found their closer, will hold onto him as long as possible (and productive).  So I did not view that as a slight to Romo relative to Sabean's statement about Lincecum.

And speaking of Lincecum, if anything, Sabean's statement could be construed like the Pence statement, said in a different way.  In any case, I think the Giants feel that they will be close enough to battle to late in the season for relevancy, and they can't do that without Lincecum (or somebody in his place) pitching well enough, plus there is the potential for Lincecum to have a really nice second half, much like he did in 2012 when he led  the rotation in ERA until his last two bad starts, where his stamina issues finally took over.  So it is very unlikely to see him traded, I think.

Plus, I think the Giants still hope to work out something with Lincecum, depending on what the market bears for Tim.  They are not going to go crazy, but if the other teams make reasonable offers, I can see the Giants upping the contract value to resign Tim. 

Plus, top relievers are getting $14-15M per year right now.  The Giants could structure the deal to pay him, say, $16M per year, with $1M added on for each IP threshold that he makes, so that he makes, say, $22M per year if he's starting, but making good money for a reliever if not.  Maybe starting with the 25th start to the 30th start.

I believe that he can be a great super-reliever once he transitions over from starting.  We could have a closer, like most teams, but Tim would pitch based on what the team needs at the moment.  If they need a long man in the 2nd, he'll pitch that game.  But maybe the next day, they need someone to come in the 5th, and he can bridge to the setup relievers if necessary.  But maybe the setup guys are struggling to shut down things in the 7th or 8th, and like how the Giants used to bring in Wilson in the 8th to get 4 or 5 outs, he could do that as well.  Or if the closer is struggling, bring in Timmy as needed, depending on how Bochy and Rags assess the situation.  He could also be our extra innings guy, going 3-4-5 innings, as long as necessary to get that extra innings win, shutting down the other team. 

Your 2013 Giants: Thoughts on Rotation Plans

Bochy released the Giants rotation plans.  To give Cain extra time, as well as Bumgarner with the All-Star game traveling, and Lincecum with his huge pitch count in his no-hitter, the Giants start out with Gaudin, then Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, and lastly Zito (of course), though technically there are two games that day, to make up for the rained out game in Cincinnati.

For that old fashion double header, Kickham will be called up to start one game, with Zito pitching the other start.  The first game will be considered a "home" game for the Reds since it is making up their rain out, and people were joking that since Zito has been hammered on the road, the Giants should start him in the second game, which is considered our original home game for that day.

ogc thoughts

First off, I expect the Giants to pitch Kickham in the first game, then send him down and pull up another pitcher at that point for relief.  Not sure who will be riding that Fresno-SF express, but bets are on Machi since I think his ten required days in AAA, after getting sent down, would be fulfilled by then.  Not sure who gets sent down to bring up Kickham, maybe Kontos, since he's been up and down this season, whereas Dunning has been doing well.

Second, people have been worried about Cain's health since he got bombed in his last two starts, and this move just fuels the fires.  The Giants and Cain have said that he is healthy and that there is nothing wrong.  However, Cain should have 9 days of rest between starts to July 19, the first game back, 10 days of rest for his scheduled start on July 20th.  And he didn't really throw that many pitches in that last start either, so it was not like it was a regular start, he got rest that day too.  There is caution about giving a pitcher more rest, and then there is CAUTION, and the difference between 9 and 10 days seems trivial - for a healthy pitcher. 

Third, I counted through all the starts and we have more home games than road games in the second half, 5 in total.  By positioning them in this way, Bumgarner, clearly our best pitcher now, gets the call for the most road games, at 7, everyone has 6.  It also gives both Gaudin and Cain 8 home starts, while Lincecum and Zito end up with 7, so that works out the way we want it too.  The only question then is whether Cain first or Gaudin first, and they went Gaudin to give Cain more rest.  I guess since the results are the same, why not give him more rest?

OK, here's where it makes sense to position Cain this way.  First he gets to pitch in first series against AZ.    Then he also faces Orioles, a tough team now, in the rubber game.  He also draws the first start of the Pirates series at home.  Then here we go, he gets to pitch in Colorado, then two starts later, AZ, following that up with first start of LAD series in LA, then first start of LAD series at home, plus the final game of the season.  That's 8 key/tough starts out of 14, and he faces almost every series against AZ and LAD in the second half.  He just misses the AZ series at the end of August.

And Bumgarner being next after him, he also gets AZ, Nats in DC, Pirates at home also, Rockies on road also, AZ at home also, LAD on road also, LAD at home also, plus he's available to start the first game of the playoffs since we make it that far.  That's 7 key/tough starts out of 14.

Gaudin gets 3 against AZ, plus CIN, BAL, BOS, COL twice, plus NYY, that's 9 starts against good teams, but he misses both of the LAD series.

Which means that Lincecum makes many of them.  Let's see:  Reds, Rays, Nats, BOS, Pirates, AZ, COL, LAD, NYY, LAD (yep, both LA series too, we throw Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum against LAD twice in two weeks, plus a Zito start).  He has 10 starts against good teams.

And Zito gets the leftovers, however that works out.  Reds, Rays, O's, Nat's, BOS, Pirates, AZ, AZ, COL, LAD, NYY.  That's 11 starts against good teams, so hopefully he's ready to start another good run for us, like he did at the end of last season for us.

Oddly, our back end of the rotation faces more of the better teams, but less of our top NL West contenders, AZ and LAD.  And that is good, a loss to a good team outside of our division does not hurt as much as losing to any of our top competitors, who are the D-backs and Dodgers.   And it is not like we can hide Zito, he has to face teams too. 

The one thing that this means, though, is that the Giants can't throw in Kickham anytime in August to try to give the starters an extra day off, there are only one off days from July 26 to August 28, that's 33 straight days with only one off day within (and off days on July 25 and August 29).  Then the next day off is on September 16, 18 days later.  So that is a brutal run of games, that's why I thought maybe the Giants might stick in Kickham once or twice in that stretch to give the starters an extra day of rest.  But then that would screw up the order of Cain, Bum, Tim facing LAD twice near the end. 

2013 Giants: June 2013 PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of June 2013, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

2013 Giants: May PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of May 2013, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Your 2013 Giants: BA Top 10 List and Mayo's Top Giants

Yeah!  Baseball America has just published the Giants Top 10 prospect list for 2013.  That means that they will be revving up their books to send out very soon (I've already pre-ordered it!).  Here is the list:

1. Kyle Crick, RHP
2. Joe Panik, SS
3. Chris Stratton, RHP
4. Gary Brown, CF
5. Mike Kickham, LHP
6. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
7. Heath Hembree, RHP
8. Francisco Peguero, OF
9. Roger Kieschnick, OF
10. Adalberto Mejia, LHP

Also, Jonathan Mayo, the MLB.com's prospect guru, has released his Top 100 prospects in baseball list, and two Giants made it:  Crick at 86 and Brown at 100.

Just enough time to get this out before my lunch hour is over, yeah!

Risk Mitigation: Giants Style

There is a good quote of Bobby Evans by Chris Haft on mlb.com/sfgiants.com:

 "The work's never done. There are too many ways to try to find ways to protect your team over a long season." -- Evans

ogc thoughts

That has been one of the things I've been harping on the past few years about Sabean and the Giants, about how they practice risk mitigation.  In Sabean's interviews, you would hear the terms "flexibility" or "versatility" but Evans' quote comes closest to what I've been saying, about finding "ways to protect your team over a long season."  That is risk mitigation.

The signings of Uribe and DeRosa and, heck, back to the trade for Winn, represents the first strong signs of doing that, during that period.  After all the issues with Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, the Giants have focused more of their free agent signings on the lower tiers on risk mitigation, that is, the flexibility to not have a season go to pot from a starter going down.

Of course, there is really nothing you can do if one of your star hitters like Posey or Sandoval, go down.  But for the rest of the team, if you have a good infield utility player and one good outfield utility player, your team can stay afloat in the pennant race should somebody either go down or just is not performing on the field, like most teams run into with prospects.

DeRosa was the ultimate version of that, but I'll start with Winn first since he was one of those first flexible players.  He was and is a tweener, not really good enough defensively in CF but not really good enough offensively on the corners, but basically an average player no matter which OF position you put him at.  So, depending on who is hitting and who is not hitting or not available, Winn was able to play all three OF positions adequately to good, as well as hit adequately.  Roberts was a little like that too, only he was never healthy long enough to do that job for us.

DeRosa was never healthy enough, but he was the ultimate in utility when we got him.  He was really a platoon hitter, killed LHP, but did OK vs. RHP, good enough to play almost regularly, nearly 150 games per season.  However, he was great defensively at many positions, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and could play SS in a pinch (started out as a pro there) and could play 1B probably OK as well.  He would have been great for us if he had only gone to the expert to get his wrist fixed instead of being lazy and going to the local doctor, who screwed it up.

Last season, Theriot and Arias helped keep things on an even keel while Franchez was out and Sandoval was DLed, while Blanco did likewise in the OF, doing OK enough while starting.  On the previous World Champion team, Uribe and Torres did it for the Giants, even Renteria too, though he was originally hired to be the starting SS but was just injured all the time.

They did the same in the bullpen too.  Many Giants fans groaned over the signing of both Lopez and Affedlt to large (for bullpen) contracts prior to the 2012 season.  But they proved to be good backup once Wilson came up lame.  I didn't see any of these Naysayers apologizing when Affeldt flew through the 2012 playoffs with 10.1 IP, giving only 5 hits and 3 walks, striking out 10 and allowing zero runs.  Lopez wasn't used as much, but he was helpful too, 3.0 IP, giving up 0 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4 and allowing no runs too.  Given that he only pitched in the two key series against Cincinnati and St. Louis (wasn't used in World Series), where a run could have tipped the series to the other side, that was critical pitching.  He helped win two of the games in the Reds series, and three of the games in the St. Louis series.

And both served as closers during the regular season as well.  In fact, who didn't serve?  Six different players recorded saves in 2012:  Casilla (25), Romo (14), Lopez (7), Affeldt (3), even Hensley (3), plus Wilson (1).    Pitchers were swapping in and out, pitching setup, pitching closer.  Also the middle relievers got to pitch setup as well.

And who is the ace of the rotation?  The season started out with Lincecum taking the pole position.  Cain got the home opener.  Bumgarner ended up opening the second half of the season after the All-Star game.   Cain got the first game of the NLDS.  Bumgarner got the first game of the NLCS.  And Zito got the World Series first start.  And while Vogelsong didn't get one of these ace first starts, he pitched like the ace of the playoffs, coming in and shutting down the opposition when the Giants were at the brink of losing.  He had only a 1.09 ERA in 4 starts, 24.2 IP, with 16 hits and 10 walks, striking out 21 and allowing only 3 runs.

And don't forget, Vogelsong was the guy who came up in 2011 and not only held the fort in Zito's absence, but proved to be ace-like in performance.  They also had Petit in 2012 and Hacker in 2010 and 2011 did well for us in AAA.  He just resigned with us, at age 30.  The Giants add these guys to hang around in the minors, just in case they were needed.

Blanco, Arias, Loux, Machi, Petit and Vogelsong started the season off in AAA, waiting for the call to the major leagues, insurance players that the Giants stashed in AAA, just in case a starter goes down.  That is risk mitigation.  And where would we have been if we did not have Theriot, who hit very well after returning from the DL, around .340 OBP, in the two spot, until Scutaro came over, capable of playing 2B and SS, and manning 3B until Sandoval returned, then took over the starting 2B spot and never let go.

Risk mitigation, as the Giants and Sabean has done it, is by having versatile utility players who were comfortable serving many different roles on the team, as the need arose.  Need a starting 2B?  Bam!  Theriot slotted in, and did well there until Scutaro was acquired and held the job.  Need a starting 3B?  Bam!  Arias started there, then Scutaro later.  Need a closer?  Bam!  Casilla, then closer by committee (Romo, Lopez, Affeldt), then Romo in the playoffs.  The Giants have been playing the risk mitigation game well over the past four seasons.

2013 Giants Risk Mitigation

Bringing back the whole team, also, the same players look to fill the risk mitigation roles.  Blanco looks like the LF right now, but should a Huff-like deal open up in LF just before spring training starts, don't be surprised if the Giants jump on a nice RH bat to platoon with Blanco or even start in LF.  And Torres is currently on the market.  Francisco Peguero also looks like he could fill the Blanco role in 2013, he plays all three OF positions, looks like he can hit anywhere (like Pablo), has great speed and defense, and even has a RH bat.

The scuttlebutt is that Ryan Theriot is interested in returning and the Giants are interested in him returning as well.  Meanwhile, we still have Joaquin Arias sitting around, ready to fill in, and Nick Noonan has been prepared the last few years for such a role, having started at both 2B and SS in his climb up the farm system.  He also played some 3B as well and probably could handle 1B in a pinch if necessary.

Of course, the bullpen is pretty set, with Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, Kontos, and Mijares.  We have the same closer by committee set up for 2013, as the Giants are said to be looking to manage Romo's arm to survive the season and be ready for the playoffs.  The key here was the signing of Affeldt to another contract.

The Giants generally likes to let one position be open for competition, so that 7th spot could be where the compete is in 2013, though rumors has it that they were in on Grilli until he chose to return to the Pirates for two years, since nobody would go three years on him.  He has had a Vogelsong-like resurrection, though he was never as buried or unused as Vogie.  Still, if they were looking hard at Grilli, they might still pick up someone along the way and make Mijares' position the competition spot.  Heath Hembree looks like he will be competing for a spot in the bullpen, and as our future closer du jour, if he should make the team, he could be seeing duty from the middle to set-up to closing, depending on how well he does.

And AAA will be full of potential starter replacements.  Hacker has signed to return.  In addition, Eric Surkamp should be healthy and starting in AAA.  In addition, both Chris Heston and Mike Kickham look like they earned a promotion to AAA with their great pitching in AA in 2012.  So there is a whole rotation full of starters who could get the call.  And I'm not even sure whether Petit might return, he was good last season too.  And don't forget, they could also come up as relievers too.

2010 Draft: What a Kick: Kickham Signed

Baseball America reported that the Giants signed 6th round pick Mike Kickham for $410,000.  The MLB recommended max for picks after the 5th round is $150,000, so that is why it took so long to announce, this was $260,000 over the max and the MLB has been delaying their approval of signings in inverse relationship to the amount the deal is over slot, meaning the more overslot, the more delayed.

Of course, not all deals are delayed for that reason.  Teams could be trying to keep the prospect at around slot, and business negotiations require the team starting low, the prospect's agent starting high, and working towards the middle until both parties are satisfied.  But sometimes the two sides don't agree where the middle lies, and negotiations drag on until you get close to the deadline and one side finally caves.

For example, the team might want slot and offers slot while noting that's as far as they are going, but then the prospect's agent might think that stalling until the deadline might put pressure on the team to sweeten the deal, and once they realize that the team said what it meant, and meant what it said, finally agrees.  And the opposite could certainly happen too, the prospect has a price he wants, the team waits him out, but finally decides that they would rather pay that than lose the prospect.

Great Giants 2010 Draft Coverage of Final Week Before Signing Deadline

There is a great fanpost on McCovey Chronicles by a Fla-Giant that covers all the remaining draftees who have not signed yet, with good research and analysis on what might happen by the deadline.   I would highly recommend going there and reading, and he appears to be updating the post as signings happen, so you might want to re-check periodically.  Fla-Giants also kindly provided links to previous posts he had done which had even more in-depth research and information on select draft picks.

I would also recommend reading the comments, Fla-Giant has been posting updates there, for example, he posted some news on the 38th round pick, Jake McCasland, about how his great performance appears to have convinced the Giants that he is worth the money he was asking for, which was 4th round money or better, which is roughly low $200K range or better.

More Kickham

Lastly, I would add some info on Kickham that I can't recall where I read it before but reading this fanpost reminded me, that the reason he fell to the 6th round was, per what I noted above about picks, because he had a set number in his mind that he wanted to sign for - "2nd round money" - and so teams did not draft him due to that demand.  I guess the Giants liked Parker more, but thought Kickham was worth roughly 2nd round money and waited to select him in the draft.

And this gets back to what I said about negotiations above.  2nd round money last season was roughly $450-700K.  Kickham signed for $410K, which was early 3rd round money.  He and his agent set a higher offer hurdle, but they and the Giants were willing to meet somewhere in the middle.

Fla-Giant noted that he pitched a lot of innings so far, so he probably won't see any time in the minors, and I would agree with that assessment.  I definitely see some instructional league and Fla-Giants thinks some Arizona Rookie League work.

Looking at Fla-Giant's research, Kickham reminds me of Jonathan Sanchez, similar height, lefty, fastball in the low 90's but touching mid-90's.  Except Sanchez was drafted way late if I recall right.  Kickham was ranked somewhere in the 2nd and 3rd round by the services.  Fla-Giant noted that Kickham was ranked 68th overall by Keith Law, and in the top 110 by most rating agencies that Fla-Giant checked (BA ranked him 110th, with the comment, "The latest quality arm from Missouri State's pitching factory.").  Perfect Game had Kickham ranked 87th just before the draft, and that was a drop from 81st the prior month, but more in line with Keith Law.  Thus, in essence, the Giants picked up themselves another 2nd/3rd round pick but in the 6th round.

What John Barr Has Brought to Giants

And that is the dynamic that John Barr has brought to the draft for the Giants.  Maybe it is because the news on prior drafts were not as detailed, but since he has come on, the Giants have been much more willing to draft players who fell for whatever reasons down in the draft.  Previously, the Giants were more prone to draft players that nobody else thought was that good, most were ranked by Baseball America, I found in a previous study, at least one round or more later than when they were selected.

But since Barr was put in charge of the Giants draft, they have been more prone to draft players who fell in the draft for whatever reason.  In prior seasons, the examples were more like Brandon Crawford and Roger Kieschnick, players who had a poor year but were highly thought of previously, but they did draft players like Conor Gillaspie, who fell because of his high salary demand.

Drafting Guys Who Fell Due to Salary Demands

Based on what I've read in Fla-Giant's post, this season the Giants appear to be doing more of what I've been hoping they would do:  draft players who fell in the draft because of salary demands that turned off other teams, players like Mike Kickham.  And it is not like the Giants are late copycats - they were the first I can think of to do something like that, when they drafted Travis Ishikawa late and gave him a near $1M bonus in the 2002 draft - but rather that they had not pursued that avenue as heavily as other teams, like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers have in recent seasons.

I'm glad that they are devoting more dollars to this effort, for as bad as the draft is in terms of finding talent, which I've shown in my draft study, this is still a numbers game, where the more prospects and the more talent you have, the greater the odds that you find a good player.  By selecting and signing more of these players, the sooner the Giants will find that needle in the haystack.

And given their expertise in finding and developing pitching talent, it makes even more sense that pursue this avenue with regards to pitchers like Kickham, 23rd rounder RHP Alec Asher, and 38th rounder RHP Jake McCasland.  And they also have selected a number of position players as well in this vein, starting with 2nd rounder CF Jarrett Parker, 19th rounder OF/1B Austin Southall, and 46th rounder 3B Caleb Hougesan.  They probably lucked out with Southall, who would have been drafted early in the draft but fell due to his commit to LSU, but then he failed to get into LSU and now is committed to a JC, but really, as long as the money is good, he should sign.