The Giants have traded Ray Durham to the Brew Crew for two minorly hyped prospects, 22 year old Class A outfielder Darren Ford (speedster, 48 stolen bases - second best in minors - in 59 attempts but not a hitter, .230 and already 88 strikeouts) and 26 year old AAA lefty starting pitcher Steve Hammond (Vallejo native; did well in AA then struggled in AAA, 0-4 record, 7.41 ERA). Accounts from Merc, Chron, sfgiants.com, and AP.
They are not very highly rated, though good enough to Baseball America ranked Ford 21st best prospect and Hammonds 27th in Milwaukee's farm system.
Ford was noted by Baseball America for his one tool "that can't be taught - blazing speed... The question is whether Ford can develop the rest of his game..." They note that he should walk more and strikeout less, plus bunt more, as he can turn ordinary groundballs into base hits with his extraordinary speed. He just needs to make contact. BA notes that he could play CF in the majors right now, he's an outstanding defender. They also rated him the fastest baserunner and best defensive outfielder in the Brewer's minor league system.
Hammonds was rated #7 in 2007 but fell 20 spots, according to the Brewers, "because he worked too hard." Apparently he bulked up, which slowed down his delivery, and he wasn't a power pitcher before that, throwing 88-92. BA thinks he's "increasingly likely that" his "future will be as a reliever," as he is already 26 years old.
McKamey rated Ford a potentially average starting CF, but still a bit away from reaching that potential (7C, where 7 is average player and C is 50% probability of making potential): "Explosive athlete with plus speed" but "lacks power" and "arm strength is below average," "primary need is to get on-base," as he doesn't walk much. Still, he was rated 11th in the Brewers system by McKamey.
Hammonds was rated a potential #5 starter, but viewed as a below-average player who is nonetheless close to his potential (6B, where 6 is platoon player and B is 70% probability of making potential). One reason he probably did so well in AA this season is because it is his third season there, he was promoted there in 2006, spent full season in 2007, and again in 2008 before being promoted to AAA. Notes: "Strong-framed pitcher" "lacking strikeout ability and was subject to the long ball. Mechanics get out-of-whack easily, which decreases command and velocity." However, "short/compact delivery that is very deceptive, making his FB appear harder."
The Giants also threw in some cash to the Brewers in order to complete the trade, which was initiated by the Brewers during the All-Star break and finalized once they came into town to play the Giants. Apparently Brewers GM Doug Melvin and Sabean "go back a long way". The Chron reported that the Giants saved about half the $3M Durham had left on his contract, which makes sense to me, splitting the difference. Brewers also paid him $200,000 as a fee for giving up his 10 year/5 year rights to refuse the trade, as it was in his contract.
Durham actually asked for the trade to be postponed to after the game so that he would not have to play against the Giants on Sunday, out of respect for his former teammates. In fact, he was so emotional about the whole thing that he could only watch around 3 innings before heading back into the locker room, as it was a weird feeling, being out there and rooting for both teams.
Sabean noted in the various accounts that the Giants will not trade any young pitchers and it would be unlikely that the club would acquire a veteran hitter in any deal, as they are not going to rent a player. He also said that the Giants will be as active as possible in order to give the younger players more playing time, as "Ray is the first transaction". He also noted, "We stayed true to our word. No matter where we were in the standings and what we thought our chances were, we needed at some point to turn our fortunes to our younger players."
They are not going to go with anyone regularly yet at 2B. Burriss started Sunday but Velez and Ochoa will also be in the mix. It wasn't mentioned, but I would think that Castillo would also see some time there as well, plus Denker might also come up if/when Aurilia is traded, and Denker plays both 2B and 3B.
Giants Thoughts
This move probably only gets the Sabean Naysayers complaining about why it took so long to do, that it should have been done last off-season. However, most of them were short-sighted and impatient because the only way Durham could have been traded last off-season is if they Giants sent the other team his full $7M salary and they probably would have gotten maybe one player and certainly nobody on any team's Top 30 list. They ended up with two and saving around $1-2M, money that will go towards paying Buster Posey's bonus. They had to let Durham re-establish his value so that they could move him advantageously. The short-sighted naysayers would have just dumped him.
Not that the two players are really that good. They are certainly closer to the majors than any amateurs we could have selected if Durham were signed away as a free agent in the coming off-season, but nowhere near the potential of any pick we might have gotten. However, given his history of injuries, nobody is going to sign him and give his former team the draft picks without that team offering him arbitration. And given that Durham stayed with the Giants with his last contract for an amount that I thought was low, had the Giants kept him, he probably would have accepted arbitration and would have received even more money in a contract from the Giants and continue to block the re-building process.
No, it is much better this way, the Giants are officially done with Durham and moving on.
Both prospects are typical Giants prospects: an extra speedy centerfielder who plays great defense but can't hit nor walk worth a lick and a crafty pitcher with no strikeout pitch nor any power. Given Baseball America's comment that Hammond used to be #7 but strong-armed his way to oblivion, I think that he probably - given the Giants history with pitchers like him - can regain some prospect status and eventually contribute to us in some way. Ford, I am not sure he will ever figure out how to get on-base, but if anyone can do it, I think Carney Lansford can, I always liked him as a hitter. Plus his speed is really good, rated by McKamey as 8th out of all prospects this season, just ahead of Velez (9th), slightly ahead of Burriss (15th), and Fairley made the list too, 22nd. And the Giants do love their speedsters, it will be interesting what he does for us after joining us.
But anything they can contribute in the future will be gravy to me, as the main things to me are, first, that we saved some of his salary this season which we can now spend on signing draft picks like Posey (or spent on signing Rodriguez), and second, that Durham is traded, opening up a spot for a prospect to get some MLB playing time. Burriss has been OK in his time up here, and I've wanted to see Ochoa get a chance this season to show what he's got.
Amazingly, some Brewer fans were upset over losing the two prospects. Durham helps shore up a weak spot for them at 2B, as Weeks has been horrible this season. He's always had the potential - he was super hot last season according to some, with OPS over 1.000 for two months or so - but never been able to do it consistently. He's also good for hitting, power and speed off the bench. Ray is going to help them - particularly since he won't be playing full-time, Melvin noted maybe starts twice a week - get closer in the pennant race and it won't be his fault if the team doesn't make it. They would have been lucky if either prospect ever contributed significantly over half a season, let alone making the majors period.
Gino Promoted
In other news, Yabu was DLed and Gino Espinelli was called up, which kicked him off the Olympic team. I've been watching him since he was drafted, not heralded at all, but just seemed to get the job done as he has risen through the farm system. Just a player I had nice vibes about so I followed him, but there's no significance to this, as I used to follow and like Joe Bateman and he never did anything for us, he finally left the team last off-season, not sure if he left or was drafted off the team (I think maybe the latter). Good luck Gino!
Other Trade Talk
I think the Giants were hoping to trade Yabu but his recent poor outings and now DL probably would preclude that now. Giants reportedly on the trading block include Rich Aurilia, Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel, and even Benji Molina, with a rumor that the Chron reported a day or two ago that the Marlins were looking at him, though I'm not sure what the Giants would do without him, unless we got a catcher in return. I doubt there will be much interest in Dave Roberts, particularly since he won't get many starts, from what it seems from public talk about how he'll be used going forward, though apparently Lewis has a bunion causing him trouble and surgery is being considered, even though that would cost him 8 months. And I don' think Castillo will get much interest either, though if he gets a lot of starts at 2B, someone might bite on him for 2B, but we probably wouldn't get anyone more than a low rated reliever for him.
The good news is that the Giants have officially put the young pitchers off the table for future trade talks. I think that is the best path to take, basically keep the core group together and let them gel and learn together over the next season or two. If the Giants aren't ready to compete by 2010-11, then we can think about trading away any of them. For the future, it is best to build as strong a pitching staff as we can so that our offense does not have to do much in order for us to win. I don't think we are far from that now, with our big three doing so well. If Zito can ever return to any semblance to his former goodness, and I think he can, then we will really be set for the future.
Pitching Rotation
Speaking of Zito, I'm glad the Giants moved him in the back of the rotation for the second half - it is Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Zito, then Correia - because then he won't be facing the other team's best starters regularly, nor would Lincecum. That should help both of their winning percentages higher relatively going forward. However, Cain and Sanchez will suffer a lot more, particularly Sanchez who was facing back of rotation guys earlier, so they will have to grow up fast and be more consistently good. But I'm not too worried, Cain has usually figured things out by July/August and put up a great streak, and Sanchez has been consistently good for a while now so he should be ready to take on top of rotation guys, so my only worry about him is his innings pitched for the season, since he's never thrown that many in a season as a reliever for the Giants.
Watching Young Arms
However, the Giants should be aware of this and monitoring it, as they recently disclosed that they are thinking of Lincecum in those terms as well. They have talked about even skipping a start here and there to lessen the load on Lincecum's arm, plus taking the days off and giving him the extra day as they come, instead of skipping the #5 spot and keeping him (and the others) on a 5 day schedule. That could mean that Misch might return to the rotation by August to take turns from Sanchez and Lincecum as needed.
Showing posts with label Ray Durham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ray Durham. Show all posts
Monday, July 21, 2008
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Lose-Win Proposition: The Drive for a Top Five Draft Pick
Of course, I would never root for the Giants to lose. But when you are mired in a rebuilding, excuse me, "transitional" year, losing is the tonic for what ails you, as that will result in a good draft pick the next season, giving you another player who may lead you back to the promise land - the playoffs. So while I'm not rooting for the team to lose, as we lose veterans in trades for prospects (make it so Number One!) and unproven prospects take their places and, most probably, not do as well, losing will be the theme of the second half of the 2008 season.
And it won't take much as we are already in good position: we have the 4th pick of the 2009 draft at the moment, as D'Rocks passed us up today, raising us up from the 5th pick. As I've noted before, my study shows that in recent drafts, the best chances of finding a good prospect are among the top 5 picks of the drafts typically.
Here are the current standing (as of right when I checked the standings, there are still some games outstanding but I just wanted to write this post):
1 Nats 37 61 -
1 Pads 37 61 -
3 Marin 38 59 1.5
4 Giants 40 57 3.5
5 Rocks 42 57 4.5
6 Indian 42 54 6
7 Royals 44 54 7
8 Pirates 44 53 7.5
9 Braves 46 51 9.5
9 Astros 46 51 9.5
I don't have the tie-breakers for ties, so I just listed them this way. But I expect the Nats to do worse than the Padres over the rest of the season, and I've heard rumors of the Braves trading Teixiera, so I think they will do worse than the Astros.
For the Giants, until the recent losing streak - which of course coincided with the flu striking much of the team, so it appears that this losing streak was a lovely parting gift from Brian Horwitz, who was the first with it - they had basically been playing .500 after Dave Roberts went on the DL. But this bad losing streak is probably for the best, as it now clearly shows Brian Sabean (and the rest of management) that it would be futile to hang onto any veteran (or to trade for any) just to keep the team competitive this season.
Giants Thoughts
Speaking of trades, according to a number of articles I've read, including this one from the Chron, the Giants and Brewers have been talking trade for a while. Even though the Chron had just the other day said that there was no substantive trade talk between the team, this linked Chronicle article now says that the Brewers are looking at Durham and previous articles had mentioned Jack Taschner, though his performance was a bit lacking against the Brewers, plus that they pulled a minor league player and would be announcing a trade in the morning.
It also mentioned the possibility of a bigger trade of Rickie Weeks to the Giants. That one caught my eye. A previous Chron article had mentioned that the Brewers were looking for a lefty hitter and relievers. We have a lot of lefty hitters, Lewis, Bowker, Roberts, even Randy Winn and Ray Durham are lefties, though if they are going to deal Weeks, they would want a good young player in return, I would assume.
Here's my trade idea: how about Lewis, Taschner, and maybe another prospect (or even another reliever, though Lewis and Taschner might be enough) for Weeks, then also trade Durham for the minor leaguer pulled (speedster - sounds familiar - Darren Ford).
Before I hear the protests at my speculation, hear me out on this. We have outfielders galore, particularly lefty ones, but are lacking in middle infielders, particularly good ones. As much as I like Kevin Frandsen, he's at best a complementary player as a starter, and could end up a very nice infield utility player who can play multiple positions - nothing wrong with that, though I still think he can do more; still, he's unproven and we don't really have many choices there right now, just question marks like Jose Castillo, Travis Denker, Eugenio Velez.
As much as I like Fred Lewis, his defense isn't that great, which is a sad thing given he's been devoting himself to baseball for much of his life. And he's still not hitting for much HR power, but is good for getting on base and extra-base power and some steals, kind of like a lefty Randy Winn with poorer defense but better basestealing. He's never been considered that good a prospect on an overall basis, but has done well. Plus, he's not that young, he'll be in his early 30's by the time the Giants are ready to compete again, 2010 and later.
If Lewis is traded, Roberts would probably start in LF, so I can see the heckles on that, but then we would have Rickie Weeks starting at 2B for us. Rickie Weeks was a former top 5-10 draft pick (I think 5 but hedging), a former top prospect with a LOT of potential, but he's been unable to capitalize on all his talents consistently with the Brewers. In addition, he's been injury prone as well.
They don't have to time to watch and hope he figures things out, as they showed with the CC Sabathia trade, they are playing for now, this season, but the Giants do have the time to see if he figures things out. He is a much better prospect than Lewis ever was, and if the Giants can figure out how to harness that - it will be like getting another high draft pick on the team. It would also clear a corner outfield position for Schierholtz or a key free agent signing (lots of power corner OF usually available), whereas middle infield players like Weeks are not often available in the free agent market, especially not young like he is.
Anytime you can get a prospect like Rickie Weeks without giving up an equivalent level of talent (big assumption on my part, but I don't see the Giants parting with Bumgarner or Alderson for Weeks, or even Sanchez), you have to roll the dice and see what happens. Hopefully the Giants and Sabean can pull this off.
And it won't take much as we are already in good position: we have the 4th pick of the 2009 draft at the moment, as D'Rocks passed us up today, raising us up from the 5th pick. As I've noted before, my study shows that in recent drafts, the best chances of finding a good prospect are among the top 5 picks of the drafts typically.
Here are the current standing (as of right when I checked the standings, there are still some games outstanding but I just wanted to write this post):
1 Nats 37 61 -
1 Pads 37 61 -
3 Marin 38 59 1.5
4 Giants 40 57 3.5
5 Rocks 42 57 4.5
6 Indian 42 54 6
7 Royals 44 54 7
8 Pirates 44 53 7.5
9 Braves 46 51 9.5
9 Astros 46 51 9.5
I don't have the tie-breakers for ties, so I just listed them this way. But I expect the Nats to do worse than the Padres over the rest of the season, and I've heard rumors of the Braves trading Teixiera, so I think they will do worse than the Astros.
For the Giants, until the recent losing streak - which of course coincided with the flu striking much of the team, so it appears that this losing streak was a lovely parting gift from Brian Horwitz, who was the first with it - they had basically been playing .500 after Dave Roberts went on the DL. But this bad losing streak is probably for the best, as it now clearly shows Brian Sabean (and the rest of management) that it would be futile to hang onto any veteran (or to trade for any) just to keep the team competitive this season.
Giants Thoughts
Speaking of trades, according to a number of articles I've read, including this one from the Chron, the Giants and Brewers have been talking trade for a while. Even though the Chron had just the other day said that there was no substantive trade talk between the team, this linked Chronicle article now says that the Brewers are looking at Durham and previous articles had mentioned Jack Taschner, though his performance was a bit lacking against the Brewers, plus that they pulled a minor league player and would be announcing a trade in the morning.
It also mentioned the possibility of a bigger trade of Rickie Weeks to the Giants. That one caught my eye. A previous Chron article had mentioned that the Brewers were looking for a lefty hitter and relievers. We have a lot of lefty hitters, Lewis, Bowker, Roberts, even Randy Winn and Ray Durham are lefties, though if they are going to deal Weeks, they would want a good young player in return, I would assume.
Here's my trade idea: how about Lewis, Taschner, and maybe another prospect (or even another reliever, though Lewis and Taschner might be enough) for Weeks, then also trade Durham for the minor leaguer pulled (speedster - sounds familiar - Darren Ford).
Before I hear the protests at my speculation, hear me out on this. We have outfielders galore, particularly lefty ones, but are lacking in middle infielders, particularly good ones. As much as I like Kevin Frandsen, he's at best a complementary player as a starter, and could end up a very nice infield utility player who can play multiple positions - nothing wrong with that, though I still think he can do more; still, he's unproven and we don't really have many choices there right now, just question marks like Jose Castillo, Travis Denker, Eugenio Velez.
As much as I like Fred Lewis, his defense isn't that great, which is a sad thing given he's been devoting himself to baseball for much of his life. And he's still not hitting for much HR power, but is good for getting on base and extra-base power and some steals, kind of like a lefty Randy Winn with poorer defense but better basestealing. He's never been considered that good a prospect on an overall basis, but has done well. Plus, he's not that young, he'll be in his early 30's by the time the Giants are ready to compete again, 2010 and later.
If Lewis is traded, Roberts would probably start in LF, so I can see the heckles on that, but then we would have Rickie Weeks starting at 2B for us. Rickie Weeks was a former top 5-10 draft pick (I think 5 but hedging), a former top prospect with a LOT of potential, but he's been unable to capitalize on all his talents consistently with the Brewers. In addition, he's been injury prone as well.
They don't have to time to watch and hope he figures things out, as they showed with the CC Sabathia trade, they are playing for now, this season, but the Giants do have the time to see if he figures things out. He is a much better prospect than Lewis ever was, and if the Giants can figure out how to harness that - it will be like getting another high draft pick on the team. It would also clear a corner outfield position for Schierholtz or a key free agent signing (lots of power corner OF usually available), whereas middle infield players like Weeks are not often available in the free agent market, especially not young like he is.
Anytime you can get a prospect like Rickie Weeks without giving up an equivalent level of talent (big assumption on my part, but I don't see the Giants parting with Bumgarner or Alderson for Weeks, or even Sanchez), you have to roll the dice and see what happens. Hopefully the Giants and Sabean can pull this off.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Giants Fire Sale: Addendum
MLB Trade Rumors quotes Jayson Stark's take on the fire sale rumor that confirms the Ken Rosenthal article. Where's there smoke, there's a fire sale. His article provides three additional names to the list: Tyler Walker, Rajai Davis, and Merkin Valdez. It also includes the usual suspects: Durham, Aurilia, Winn, and Kline.
I had speculated on Davis being on the list but totally missed Walker and Valdez. I saw Hennessey being the one to be traded, but Walker credentials are almost that of Hennessey in that he has served in all the roles of the bullpen, he just hasn't started much, if any. So, in terms of value, he could be near that of Hennessey, even though he's many years older and just recovering from TJS.
But given the clear statement by the Giants that Hennessey is not starting, then I don't see why Walker and not also Hennessey. They are only really necessary if the Giants are really serious about competing in 2008, not so much if it is a rebuilding year. Perhaps the Giants think they can get more for Walker than for Hennessey. Or maybe they simply think that he won't be good enough, long enough, so may as well see what they can get for him today. If they don't get offered enough, they can simply pull him off the table then.
Valdez I am surprised by, especially since he is doing well this spring training. Maybe they are just doing a switch and bait with him on the list, to get a feel for how much teams are willing to give up for him plus get the team on the phone and talk them into another player. Maybe he still does something the Giants don't think will work out in the long run, much like how they gave up on Jerome Williams so fast, faster than fans (including myself) were willing to, but ultimately they have been correct, Williams and Aardsma have not amounted to much, and they at least got some usefulness out of Hawkins and Kline.
Still, surprising to see his name there. After all this waiting, I want to see what we got, not trade him away. I would only be happy getting an interesting position prospect for him. Though I guess I would be OK with another starting pitcher prospect who is semi-decent.
About Davis, another thought just popped in: perhaps Bowker is opening the eyes of the Giants brass this spring, and they are thinking of jumping him to the majors to platoon with Roberts. He isn't hitting particularly well in terms of results, but maybe they are impressed by how well he is swinging.
Or it could be that they are looking at Davis's horrendous September stats and realizing that he was just really lucky in August when they got him, he is just not that good a hitter, so trade Davis now, while his value is high, and try out someone else in platoon with Roberts.
Again, there is no Dave Roberts on the list. I know a lot of fans want him gone instead of Winn, but really, he's the one who mkes the most sense for the Giants going forward, both in terms of lead-off abilities and allowing a young player or two to get significant playing time, plus the fact that we would get more back in a trade from Winn than we would from Roberts. And he has some skills that are plus, whereas Winn is plus nowhere, he is just Mr. Average.
And that's not a knock, just the truth. That is because even an average player is worth something in baseball, the average player is still much better than the so-called replacement level player who are on the margins of baseball. And even the best teams don't have stars at every position, they need average players to complement the good players.
Fire Sales, per the comments made on the other post, don't necessarily mean that you sell off all your good players. It could mean clearing out the deadwood that gets in the way of the new growth, the young players. And before spring training, Durham and Aurilia probably had very little value, given how poorly they did in 2007, so a good showing thus far makes them all shining and, well, not new, but gritty vets with something left to prove. And spring is the time for injurie to crop up, making teams suddenly need players, perhaps, like Durham or Aurilia.
For example, Aurilia would fit in nicely with LA right now, given LaRoche's recent injury, and provide coverage at 3B in case Nomar gets injured again, plus if LaRoche takes longer to recover (or alternatively, they don't have to rush him back), and at worse he's the uber-utility guy across the infield again. Guys who can play multiple positions are especially coveted these days because of the expanded bullpens and 5 man rotations.
And Chicago has been getting dry humped over and over again by the Orioles regarding Brian Roberts, maybe they get tired and pick up Durham again, he's a known quantity, he's from Chicago White Sox before, so the fans know him, and he is good when he is hitting well, and he has been hitting very well this spring. Or any AL team who needs a better DH, Durham could do that as well.
I had speculated on Davis being on the list but totally missed Walker and Valdez. I saw Hennessey being the one to be traded, but Walker credentials are almost that of Hennessey in that he has served in all the roles of the bullpen, he just hasn't started much, if any. So, in terms of value, he could be near that of Hennessey, even though he's many years older and just recovering from TJS.
But given the clear statement by the Giants that Hennessey is not starting, then I don't see why Walker and not also Hennessey. They are only really necessary if the Giants are really serious about competing in 2008, not so much if it is a rebuilding year. Perhaps the Giants think they can get more for Walker than for Hennessey. Or maybe they simply think that he won't be good enough, long enough, so may as well see what they can get for him today. If they don't get offered enough, they can simply pull him off the table then.
Valdez I am surprised by, especially since he is doing well this spring training. Maybe they are just doing a switch and bait with him on the list, to get a feel for how much teams are willing to give up for him plus get the team on the phone and talk them into another player. Maybe he still does something the Giants don't think will work out in the long run, much like how they gave up on Jerome Williams so fast, faster than fans (including myself) were willing to, but ultimately they have been correct, Williams and Aardsma have not amounted to much, and they at least got some usefulness out of Hawkins and Kline.
Still, surprising to see his name there. After all this waiting, I want to see what we got, not trade him away. I would only be happy getting an interesting position prospect for him. Though I guess I would be OK with another starting pitcher prospect who is semi-decent.
About Davis, another thought just popped in: perhaps Bowker is opening the eyes of the Giants brass this spring, and they are thinking of jumping him to the majors to platoon with Roberts. He isn't hitting particularly well in terms of results, but maybe they are impressed by how well he is swinging.
Or it could be that they are looking at Davis's horrendous September stats and realizing that he was just really lucky in August when they got him, he is just not that good a hitter, so trade Davis now, while his value is high, and try out someone else in platoon with Roberts.
Again, there is no Dave Roberts on the list. I know a lot of fans want him gone instead of Winn, but really, he's the one who mkes the most sense for the Giants going forward, both in terms of lead-off abilities and allowing a young player or two to get significant playing time, plus the fact that we would get more back in a trade from Winn than we would from Roberts. And he has some skills that are plus, whereas Winn is plus nowhere, he is just Mr. Average.
And that's not a knock, just the truth. That is because even an average player is worth something in baseball, the average player is still much better than the so-called replacement level player who are on the margins of baseball. And even the best teams don't have stars at every position, they need average players to complement the good players.
Fire Sales, per the comments made on the other post, don't necessarily mean that you sell off all your good players. It could mean clearing out the deadwood that gets in the way of the new growth, the young players. And before spring training, Durham and Aurilia probably had very little value, given how poorly they did in 2007, so a good showing thus far makes them all shining and, well, not new, but gritty vets with something left to prove. And spring is the time for injurie to crop up, making teams suddenly need players, perhaps, like Durham or Aurilia.
For example, Aurilia would fit in nicely with LA right now, given LaRoche's recent injury, and provide coverage at 3B in case Nomar gets injured again, plus if LaRoche takes longer to recover (or alternatively, they don't have to rush him back), and at worse he's the uber-utility guy across the infield again. Guys who can play multiple positions are especially coveted these days because of the expanded bullpens and 5 man rotations.
And Chicago has been getting dry humped over and over again by the Orioles regarding Brian Roberts, maybe they get tired and pick up Durham again, he's a known quantity, he's from Chicago White Sox before, so the fans know him, and he is good when he is hitting well, and he has been hitting very well this spring. Or any AL team who needs a better DH, Durham could do that as well.
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Giants Fire Sale?
The MLB rumor site quoted Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sport reporting that the "Giants have informed several teams that they are shopping over a dozen of their major league and minor league players." Ken Rosenthal said some of the players include Ray Durham, Rich Aurilia, Randy Winn, and Steve Kline. The author of the site then actually called the Giants "and found out that Travis Ishikawa and Noah Lowry are both on that list as well." He suggested that this is a Giants fire sale.
Not quite because not every player who should go in a fire sale were mentioned. All the players listed make a lot of sense to trade because they are holding back younger players or is not as necessary anymore or both.
Durham out = Frandsen starting at 2B. Durham's horrid 2007 notwithstanding, he has had a very solid career, and a good spring could convince another team that he is back enough to obtain. The level of player we get back will correspond fully with how much the other team believes Durham is back.
Aurilia out = Velez as uber-utility guy. Aurilia had a horrible 2007, probably caused by a fender bender in spring training. But he's a relatively cheap vet who can play the whole infield and hit OK enough for a team to take him for a nothing prospect sent to the Giants. And the Giants are happy to oblige because they don't need him right now, except as 3B insurance, but there are others who should do OK at 3B, like Frandsen and possibly Velez.
Randy Winn was one of the few to have a good 2007, so the Giants should want to trade him because he could net a good prospect, unlike the others = Nate Schierholtz and/or Fred Lewis getting a chance to start in RF. They can't platoon since both are lefties, but they would be competing for playing time there. Or they could give Lewis the starting role for half a season, and if he can't hold it, bring up Schierholtz, or even Bowker, depending on who is doing better (though it appears that Bowker might be prepped as Ortmeier's replacement if Dan falters).
Steve Kline out = probably Jose Capellan being kept. Giants have a number of young good RP who are out of options or could be lost: Valdez, Threets, Capellan. The first two have been doing well, and the third, Capellan, comes highly recommended, Felipe Alou would lose a lot of face if they return him to the Red Sox because they got him in Rule 5 draft.
Noah Lowry out = Jonathan Sanchez or Pat Misch in. Both need to start in the majors to see how they do, but Correia looks good to go in winning the only open spot, and Lowry is the most expendable of the top four of Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Lowry (obviously Zito's contract precludes any trade, and the Giants aren't trading the other two, no matter how many fans want them to).
Unfortunately, Lowry went under the knife Friday for surgery, so he's not going to be traded right now. I assume the Giants are kicking the tires, as Sabean would say, in order to set the table for trading him by mid-season.
Travis Ishikawa is a failing prospect and there are now other prospects looking to be the Giants future 1B. First, we have Angel Villalona, who most rate as being in the Top 30 (or better) overall among all prospects. So even if Ishikawa came up this year, Angel will take the spot in a couple of years. Then there is Dan Ortmeier who looks to be getting the chance to start there until Angel is ready, plus if he is OK at 1B, he colld always return to the OF. If Ortmeier falters, then John Bowker would next get the chance. And there are a number of college 1B who the Giants could pick in this season's amateur draft with their #5 pick overall.
Still, Ishikawa is a great defender and has considerable power plus walks a lot, and he really needs to start in AAA or he'll be lost by the Giants next season as he only has one option left. But they appear to like McClain and he plays 1B at AAA plus they are trying out John Bowker at 1B as well (he could also come up mid-season and start in RF too).
I think they should keep him because he has been severely bothered by the poor parks at San Jose and Norwich (see MiLB.com's series by Jonathan Mayo for insight on how bad these parks are for hitters), they need to see how he does in AAA, in more regular parks. But it is not like he's a sure thing, it is just that he showed a lot of power and ability to walk despite the bad hitting environment in San Jose and Norwich is just a bear to play in for almost any power hitter. There should be other teams willing to give him a chance, heck, even Todd Linden got picked up and Ellison was traded twice and was a glorified pinch-runner with each team.
Giants Thoughts
The names on the list above are no surprise to most Giants fans. What is surprising, at least to those who don't read here, is that Dave Roberts is not on the list. As I have been harping on, the Giants want Roberts around to teach tips to the speedsters we'll have up here in 2008 and 2009. The key to making aggressive basestealing work is to not get caught and Roberts steals both in quantity (23-49 while starting regularly) and quality (81% career success; 88% last two seasons).
There was only six names revealed in the two articles, meaning that about five to seven more names are on the list that were not noteworthy enough for the authors to mention. Here are some of my thoughts on who else might be on the list.
Given that the Giants list outfielders as a desire, I have to think that Rajai Davis and Clay Timpner are on the list. Rajai Davis was never much of a prospect, a AAAA candidate until he had that nice month with us before the league caught up with him. And Clay Timpner really only works in CF and we just signed Aaron Rowand to play CF for a long while. Maybe Fred Lewis is on the list too, though I would think he would be mentioned if Ishikawa was.
In addition, they are reportedly looking for set up relievers, so it could be that Brad Hennessey might be on the list as well. As nicely as he has done, in a wide variety of roles - starting, long relief, set-up, and closing - he does not have the power arm that Giants management likes, so he could be a case of selling high, after doing so well in 2007 in a number of roles, as well as oping a spot for one of the trio of relievers we would lose if not on the Giants 25 man roster come starting day: Merkin Valdez, Erick Threets, and Jose Capellan.
He could net a good prospect due to how well he has done, how flexible he can be in a variety of situations, and how much longer they have to control him. It could explain why the Giants started him recently in spring training. You know, show how valuable he can be to prospective teams.
I would also add Randy Messenger and maybe Vinnie Chulk as possibilities too. Particularly Messenger after his big blow up over his demotion the other day. With so many other good young relievers who cannot be sent down, the Giants could afford to trade these two while the trio are doing well and the two have some trade value as major league relievers.
Chulk would not get sent down in any case, but had a nice year last season and thus could net a nice prospect back. Messenger was just sent down recently, as the Giants still had an option on him, but, still, he did well for us until he busted his fist in the wall, which probably cost us any chance of getting anyone good for him in trade, but I would not mind losing him because he don't strike out that many batters on a K/9 basis. We need strikeout pitchers to be more successful in the playoffs and neither of them are stellar in that regard.
Oddly enough, the Giants are looking for backup catchers, which implies that they are not happy with Eliezer Alfonzo or Guillermo Rodriguez as our backups. Given their offensive show during the Carribean Winter Leagues, that suggest they are looking for a strong defensive catcher to complement Molina, whose defense has seen much better days. I like Alfonzo as backup, but given the Giants future relies so much on pitching, it would behoove us to pick up someone solid defensively as a backup catcher, for defensive purposes at the end of the game, plus he could see starts when Bengie Molina is struggling offensively, which is his only area of value-add.
Not quite because not every player who should go in a fire sale were mentioned. All the players listed make a lot of sense to trade because they are holding back younger players or is not as necessary anymore or both.
Durham out = Frandsen starting at 2B. Durham's horrid 2007 notwithstanding, he has had a very solid career, and a good spring could convince another team that he is back enough to obtain. The level of player we get back will correspond fully with how much the other team believes Durham is back.
Aurilia out = Velez as uber-utility guy. Aurilia had a horrible 2007, probably caused by a fender bender in spring training. But he's a relatively cheap vet who can play the whole infield and hit OK enough for a team to take him for a nothing prospect sent to the Giants. And the Giants are happy to oblige because they don't need him right now, except as 3B insurance, but there are others who should do OK at 3B, like Frandsen and possibly Velez.
Randy Winn was one of the few to have a good 2007, so the Giants should want to trade him because he could net a good prospect, unlike the others = Nate Schierholtz and/or Fred Lewis getting a chance to start in RF. They can't platoon since both are lefties, but they would be competing for playing time there. Or they could give Lewis the starting role for half a season, and if he can't hold it, bring up Schierholtz, or even Bowker, depending on who is doing better (though it appears that Bowker might be prepped as Ortmeier's replacement if Dan falters).
Steve Kline out = probably Jose Capellan being kept. Giants have a number of young good RP who are out of options or could be lost: Valdez, Threets, Capellan. The first two have been doing well, and the third, Capellan, comes highly recommended, Felipe Alou would lose a lot of face if they return him to the Red Sox because they got him in Rule 5 draft.
Noah Lowry out = Jonathan Sanchez or Pat Misch in. Both need to start in the majors to see how they do, but Correia looks good to go in winning the only open spot, and Lowry is the most expendable of the top four of Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Lowry (obviously Zito's contract precludes any trade, and the Giants aren't trading the other two, no matter how many fans want them to).
Unfortunately, Lowry went under the knife Friday for surgery, so he's not going to be traded right now. I assume the Giants are kicking the tires, as Sabean would say, in order to set the table for trading him by mid-season.
Travis Ishikawa is a failing prospect and there are now other prospects looking to be the Giants future 1B. First, we have Angel Villalona, who most rate as being in the Top 30 (or better) overall among all prospects. So even if Ishikawa came up this year, Angel will take the spot in a couple of years. Then there is Dan Ortmeier who looks to be getting the chance to start there until Angel is ready, plus if he is OK at 1B, he colld always return to the OF. If Ortmeier falters, then John Bowker would next get the chance. And there are a number of college 1B who the Giants could pick in this season's amateur draft with their #5 pick overall.
Still, Ishikawa is a great defender and has considerable power plus walks a lot, and he really needs to start in AAA or he'll be lost by the Giants next season as he only has one option left. But they appear to like McClain and he plays 1B at AAA plus they are trying out John Bowker at 1B as well (he could also come up mid-season and start in RF too).
I think they should keep him because he has been severely bothered by the poor parks at San Jose and Norwich (see MiLB.com's series by Jonathan Mayo for insight on how bad these parks are for hitters), they need to see how he does in AAA, in more regular parks. But it is not like he's a sure thing, it is just that he showed a lot of power and ability to walk despite the bad hitting environment in San Jose and Norwich is just a bear to play in for almost any power hitter. There should be other teams willing to give him a chance, heck, even Todd Linden got picked up and Ellison was traded twice and was a glorified pinch-runner with each team.
Giants Thoughts
The names on the list above are no surprise to most Giants fans. What is surprising, at least to those who don't read here, is that Dave Roberts is not on the list. As I have been harping on, the Giants want Roberts around to teach tips to the speedsters we'll have up here in 2008 and 2009. The key to making aggressive basestealing work is to not get caught and Roberts steals both in quantity (23-49 while starting regularly) and quality (81% career success; 88% last two seasons).
There was only six names revealed in the two articles, meaning that about five to seven more names are on the list that were not noteworthy enough for the authors to mention. Here are some of my thoughts on who else might be on the list.
Given that the Giants list outfielders as a desire, I have to think that Rajai Davis and Clay Timpner are on the list. Rajai Davis was never much of a prospect, a AAAA candidate until he had that nice month with us before the league caught up with him. And Clay Timpner really only works in CF and we just signed Aaron Rowand to play CF for a long while. Maybe Fred Lewis is on the list too, though I would think he would be mentioned if Ishikawa was.
In addition, they are reportedly looking for set up relievers, so it could be that Brad Hennessey might be on the list as well. As nicely as he has done, in a wide variety of roles - starting, long relief, set-up, and closing - he does not have the power arm that Giants management likes, so he could be a case of selling high, after doing so well in 2007 in a number of roles, as well as oping a spot for one of the trio of relievers we would lose if not on the Giants 25 man roster come starting day: Merkin Valdez, Erick Threets, and Jose Capellan.
He could net a good prospect due to how well he has done, how flexible he can be in a variety of situations, and how much longer they have to control him. It could explain why the Giants started him recently in spring training. You know, show how valuable he can be to prospective teams.
I would also add Randy Messenger and maybe Vinnie Chulk as possibilities too. Particularly Messenger after his big blow up over his demotion the other day. With so many other good young relievers who cannot be sent down, the Giants could afford to trade these two while the trio are doing well and the two have some trade value as major league relievers.
Chulk would not get sent down in any case, but had a nice year last season and thus could net a nice prospect back. Messenger was just sent down recently, as the Giants still had an option on him, but, still, he did well for us until he busted his fist in the wall, which probably cost us any chance of getting anyone good for him in trade, but I would not mind losing him because he don't strike out that many batters on a K/9 basis. We need strikeout pitchers to be more successful in the playoffs and neither of them are stellar in that regard.
Oddly enough, the Giants are looking for backup catchers, which implies that they are not happy with Eliezer Alfonzo or Guillermo Rodriguez as our backups. Given their offensive show during the Carribean Winter Leagues, that suggest they are looking for a strong defensive catcher to complement Molina, whose defense has seen much better days. I like Alfonzo as backup, but given the Giants future relies so much on pitching, it would behoove us to pick up someone solid defensively as a backup catcher, for defensive purposes at the end of the game, plus he could see starts when Bengie Molina is struggling offensively, which is his only area of value-add.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Frandsen Starting 2B 2008?
Duane Kuiper was asked by Brian Murphy of the KNBR morning show if Frandsen might start in 2008, and Kuiper replied that, though he has no inside info, in his opinion Frandsen has earned the starting position at 2B with his play over the past two months, particularly during the month of September. Durham would then be a utility player unless he's traded, a possibility which Kuiper noted that Durham had endorsed recently if he's not starting. It appears that Durham can smell it too.
Key Pivotal Point?
The way the Giants go with this decision could signal a change in strategy going forward. During the Barry Era, it made good business sense to keep the high priced players around, despite their struggles, because if you are spending 25% of your payroll on keeping Barry around, you have to try to win it all with him, you have no choice but to spend all your available payroll on the best players available on the free agent market and cross your fingers and hope they work. Else, why bother to spend all that money on Barry? That led to the series of player acquisitions that fans have lambasted and on which I have concurred, but am willing to forgive because he had to do them, he did the best with the situation he was given by ownership.
People (like Sabean Naysayers) like to point at the Alfonzo signing as the start of the downturn, but really it was the Nen contract and career ending injury that started it. A lot of fans have not realized this connection, they would complain about the payroll being poorly allocated, ask why we would sign mediocrities like Tucker and Hammonds, and punt the draft pick, but when you have an $80M payroll, Nen's $9M of uselessness meant we only had a $71M payroll, then about $52-3M when you subtract Barry, then around $45M when you subtract Schmidt.
If you complain about any of the above, then you are really more accurately complaining about the signing of Nen to his contract because that was the domino contract that forced the Giants to scramble. That was the start if you are going to hindsight things, because if we had his salary to spend, we could have still had the relievers we had and who did well, but another $9M to spend on draft picks and better free agents. I pushed in a post for Nen to do a deal that would spread out his salary over a number of years (plus interest and an extra $1M) should his career be over but with options that would return his salary to normal levels if he returned to normal, but nothing was ever done, he just collected his money and his salary handcuffed the team to seeking out mediocre players while his contract was active, then Benitez's blowout just continued the misery.
But with the Barry Era over, the Giants, by making Frandsen the starter, would signal a change in strategy, as the Giants typically would give the vet the benefit of the doubt since they had done it before. Here's how it might happen. The Giants will start spring training with Durham as starter, Frandsen utility, but Frandsen will be a near starter, much like Feliz was, particularly as I expect the Giants to then resign Vizquel for a cheap $1M contract - they will want good (enough) defense at SS for the price - plus sign someone good defensively at 3B, either very cheap or very best, or perhaps even start Frandsen there (I think that's the best solution to getting him AB).
If things work out ideally, Durham will return to normal hitting in spring training and some contending team will lose their starting 2B (or have their expected starter perform very, very poorly) and they will willingly trade for Durham since he has only one year on his contract. For him the Giants would get a low level prospect they like but who had a slip up somewhere, much like Blackley or Denker. At worse, I think Durham would hit well enough to interest a desperate team with the Giants paying the whole contract and getting a similar type of prospect.
Giants Thoughts
I think Frandsen should start in 2008 to see what he can do: it's time. The only question is where. Ideally 2B should be it but Durham screwed things up with his terrible season. I think the Giants expected 1) Durham to hit well again, 2) to miss significant time again, giving Frandsen an extended chance to show what he can do plus play a lot anyhow at other positions, and 3) be tradeable if Frandsen proved himself capable. But Durham put the kibosh on that by hitting like Neifi Perez.
I've been pushing for Frandsen to start as the starting 3B but obviously it would be better if he was the starting 2B, I just didn't see the Giants being able to trade Durham. But with Durham talking consistently about wanting to be traded, I think where's there's smoke, there's fire, so he could be gone sooner than I had thought. And in today's Merc, there's even a rumor of a Durham for Jeff Kent trade that shocked me! (only if they throw in Andy LaRoche! I'll even take Chin-Lung Hu, he's suppose to be a sharp fielding SS. :^)
Otherwise, my previous scenario of Frandsen starting at 3B until the Giants could unload Durham and free 2B for Frandsen and 3B for Aurilia (and probably utility for Ochoa) would seem the most logical sequence of events. In any case, Frandsen should be the Giants starting 2B of the future, probably within the 2008 season. The next question is will he keep that position for 2009, or would we find Sanders, Burris, Velez, Denker as our future 2B? It is one thing to get the chance to prove you belong as a starter, it is another thing to keep that position.
But Frandsen has been hitting well in AAA since he was 23 plus has hit well the past two months as a semi-starter and hit really well the past month as a regular starter, so there is some hope, though it would have been much better if we could have seen how he did over a full AAA season, so that we know better that his good hitting stats were not small sample flukes - which his weaker results in 2006 when he had his most exposure suggests, but which his dominating hitting in AAA this season plus hitting the past month helped ameliorate.
I am rooting for him, but I've rooted for many a player who didn't make it. I just think he has a great story and it would be nice to have a happy ending to it. Go Frandsen!
Key Pivotal Point?
The way the Giants go with this decision could signal a change in strategy going forward. During the Barry Era, it made good business sense to keep the high priced players around, despite their struggles, because if you are spending 25% of your payroll on keeping Barry around, you have to try to win it all with him, you have no choice but to spend all your available payroll on the best players available on the free agent market and cross your fingers and hope they work. Else, why bother to spend all that money on Barry? That led to the series of player acquisitions that fans have lambasted and on which I have concurred, but am willing to forgive because he had to do them, he did the best with the situation he was given by ownership.
People (like Sabean Naysayers) like to point at the Alfonzo signing as the start of the downturn, but really it was the Nen contract and career ending injury that started it. A lot of fans have not realized this connection, they would complain about the payroll being poorly allocated, ask why we would sign mediocrities like Tucker and Hammonds, and punt the draft pick, but when you have an $80M payroll, Nen's $9M of uselessness meant we only had a $71M payroll, then about $52-3M when you subtract Barry, then around $45M when you subtract Schmidt.
If you complain about any of the above, then you are really more accurately complaining about the signing of Nen to his contract because that was the domino contract that forced the Giants to scramble. That was the start if you are going to hindsight things, because if we had his salary to spend, we could have still had the relievers we had and who did well, but another $9M to spend on draft picks and better free agents. I pushed in a post for Nen to do a deal that would spread out his salary over a number of years (plus interest and an extra $1M) should his career be over but with options that would return his salary to normal levels if he returned to normal, but nothing was ever done, he just collected his money and his salary handcuffed the team to seeking out mediocre players while his contract was active, then Benitez's blowout just continued the misery.
But with the Barry Era over, the Giants, by making Frandsen the starter, would signal a change in strategy, as the Giants typically would give the vet the benefit of the doubt since they had done it before. Here's how it might happen. The Giants will start spring training with Durham as starter, Frandsen utility, but Frandsen will be a near starter, much like Feliz was, particularly as I expect the Giants to then resign Vizquel for a cheap $1M contract - they will want good (enough) defense at SS for the price - plus sign someone good defensively at 3B, either very cheap or very best, or perhaps even start Frandsen there (I think that's the best solution to getting him AB).
If things work out ideally, Durham will return to normal hitting in spring training and some contending team will lose their starting 2B (or have their expected starter perform very, very poorly) and they will willingly trade for Durham since he has only one year on his contract. For him the Giants would get a low level prospect they like but who had a slip up somewhere, much like Blackley or Denker. At worse, I think Durham would hit well enough to interest a desperate team with the Giants paying the whole contract and getting a similar type of prospect.
Giants Thoughts
I think Frandsen should start in 2008 to see what he can do: it's time. The only question is where. Ideally 2B should be it but Durham screwed things up with his terrible season. I think the Giants expected 1) Durham to hit well again, 2) to miss significant time again, giving Frandsen an extended chance to show what he can do plus play a lot anyhow at other positions, and 3) be tradeable if Frandsen proved himself capable. But Durham put the kibosh on that by hitting like Neifi Perez.
I've been pushing for Frandsen to start as the starting 3B but obviously it would be better if he was the starting 2B, I just didn't see the Giants being able to trade Durham. But with Durham talking consistently about wanting to be traded, I think where's there's smoke, there's fire, so he could be gone sooner than I had thought. And in today's Merc, there's even a rumor of a Durham for Jeff Kent trade that shocked me! (only if they throw in Andy LaRoche! I'll even take Chin-Lung Hu, he's suppose to be a sharp fielding SS. :^)
Otherwise, my previous scenario of Frandsen starting at 3B until the Giants could unload Durham and free 2B for Frandsen and 3B for Aurilia (and probably utility for Ochoa) would seem the most logical sequence of events. In any case, Frandsen should be the Giants starting 2B of the future, probably within the 2008 season. The next question is will he keep that position for 2009, or would we find Sanders, Burris, Velez, Denker as our future 2B? It is one thing to get the chance to prove you belong as a starter, it is another thing to keep that position.
But Frandsen has been hitting well in AAA since he was 23 plus has hit well the past two months as a semi-starter and hit really well the past month as a regular starter, so there is some hope, though it would have been much better if we could have seen how he did over a full AAA season, so that we know better that his good hitting stats were not small sample flukes - which his weaker results in 2006 when he had his most exposure suggests, but which his dominating hitting in AAA this season plus hitting the past month helped ameliorate.
I am rooting for him, but I've rooted for many a player who didn't make it. I just think he has a great story and it would be nice to have a happy ending to it. Go Frandsen!
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