Showing posts with label 2008 Giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 Giants. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

2008 Giants: September PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of September 2008, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this).

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.

Giants Starters' Final PQS for 2008 Season

Matt Cain - (56% DOM, 9% DIS; 19:3/34): 3, 0, 4, 0, 5, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 4, 2, 3, 0, 4, 4, 3

Kevin Correia - (37% DOM, 26% DIS; 7:5/19): 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 0, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 0, 4, 2, 0 (did not count start where injured)

Brad Hennessey - (0% DOM, 33% DIS; 0:1/3): 3, 3, 0, 3

Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (79% DOM, 3% DIS; 27:1/34): 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4*, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 0, 5 (didn't count relief outing as start; * start where he was injured by batted ball, just 2 outs away from DOM 4 game so I gave it to him.)

Pat Misch - (38% DOM, 38% DIS; 3:3/8): 4, 0, 4, 4, 2, 0, 2, 0 (counted relief after Zito since 6 IP)

Matt Palmer - (0% DOM, 67% DIS; 0:2/3): 0, 3, 0

Jonathan Sanchez - (45% DOM, 31% DIS; 13:9/29): 0, 5, 2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 4, 5, 0, 5, 0, 0

Barry Zito - ( 28% DOM, 34% DIS; 9:11/32): 1, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (Skip), 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 0, 1, 1, 0, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 0, 4, 5, 0, 5, 4

Giants season overall - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 140 games counted (78:35/162)

Giants Month of April - 43% DOM, 32% DIS out of 30 games counted (12:9/28)

Giants Month of May - 63% DOM, 15% DIS out of 28 games counted (17:4/27)

Giants Month of June - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 27 games counted (13:6/27)

Giants Month of July - 40% DOM, 12% DIS out of 26 games counted (10:3/25)

Giants Month of August- 45% DOM, 17% DIS out of 29 games counted (13:5/29)

Giants Month of September - 50% DOM, 31% DIS out of 25 games counted (13:8/26)

First, some procedural notes. I didn't count Lincecum's relief session as a start, nor did I count it as a start for Valdez, in the D-gers game. I also didn't count Correia's injury start where he only pitched a third of an inning. However, I did count Misch's first outing, in relief of Zito, as a start because he went 6 innings and I felt he deserved it. And I counted Lincecum's start as a valid scoring start when he was injured by a batted ball, as he was dominating up to that point and only needed two more outs to reach 5 IP and get a DOM 4; procedurally, he should have gotten a 0.

In September, it was all Lincecum, all the time, again. But Zito was also dominating as well, his extra velocity started paying off and he had 4 DOM starts, one behind Lincecum's 5. Cain and Sanchez had 2 each, and only Sanchez had more than 2 DIS starts; he had 3.

Zito appears to be well on his way back, unlike last year's season ending spurt which gave false hope. However he has done it - finally letting go of the contract amount, getting advice from his former pitching coach who was fired earlier mid-season, whatever - he has been able to up his velocity back up to the 88 MPH range where he was previously when younger and where he appears to need to be in order to be successful with his stuff. This was evidenced by his ability to strike out at least the innings pitched minus 2 necessary to qualify for a DOM point, plus get at least twice as much strikeouts as walks, through most of September.

Strikeouts are very important to DOM starts. Strikeouts are a key component to two DOM points - K >= IP minus 2 and K >= twice BB - making it a critical element of a dominating game, PQS-wise. It also makes it harder overall for hits (less AB's to get hits in) and thus is affecting whether the pitcher can keep his hits total equal to or less than his IP. The last two points are not related at all to strikeouts, IP >= 6.0 and HR <>

What's Good and What's Not

A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes. Thus what Correia has done so far in limited starts is still good, and that's why he earned a spot in the starting position for the 2008 season.

If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher). That's how Lowry was able to pitch well last year, keeping his ERA low while still recovering from his strained oblique and being unable to strike out hitters as much as before, he had very few disaster starts until he had his arm problems and got bombed in September, he had a good ERA, in the high 3's until those starts.

2008 Season Comments

Overall, our rotation was top-notch in 2008. Lincecum's DOM is still up among the elites of the majors, if not the best in the majors, Cain is up among the best in the majors, even Sanchez is up among the good pitchers in the league, and maligned Correia is up among the OK pitchers of the league. Overall, our rotation is, as a whole, ranked almost among the best pitchers (best pitchers have DOM 50% and higher). Few teams have a couple of starters who can be as dominating as 50% DOM and yet our rotation as whole is capable of doing that, led, of course, by Lincecum.

But Cain was very good too. Despite the many fans who think that Cain is not worth keeping or think that he's not very reliable or consistent, Cain was very good, as only very good pitchers have a 56% DOM and only among the best of the best can also keep their DIS down below 10% like Cain did as well. What he did in 2008 would be worthy of Ace status on almost any other staff other than the Giants, Lincecum's feats put Cain's in a long, dark shadow that hid his accomplishments away from some fans. Hopefully this will help illuminate his prowess and give him the credit that should be due him.

Obviously, Lincecum and Cain are the aces of the staff, but Sanchez when he was going good, was pitching at a level of an ace, he had 8 DOM starts out of 11 starts with no DIS starts, when he was going good. In fact, after his first 19 starts, he had 10 DOM starts, 3 DIS starts for a 53% DOM and 16% DIS overall, which is excellent for a pitcher over a full season, and he was about two-thirds through. Unfortunately, the wheel went off the cart at that point, and he had 6 DIS starts out of 11 after that (though still with 3 DOM starts), and he had a 45% DOM for the season, which is good for a starter; his downfall was his 31% DIS.

The best keep their DIS under 10%, the better ones keep it under 20%; 31% is plain horrible. That's what he needs to fix, but given his great 19 starts to start the season, it appears that his lack of conditioning for starting previously led to a dead arm for much of the rest of the season, as evidenced by the 6 DIS starts out of 11. In all likelihood, he should be much better in 2009.

Then there was Zito. He was horrible for much of the season, but slowly improved, with two steps forward, one or two step back, until he had his wonderful month of September. If he can continue throwing like he did in September, our top 4 of the rotation will be top notch in all of the majors. But after two years of mis-starts and bad pitching, we will have to wait and see if he can finally deliver.

Lastly, the #5 starter spot was horrible this season, though Correia pitched in a lot of bad luck, his DOM was up there among OK starters, which is great for a #5 back of the rotation starter. However, it has been speculated that he will be too expensive to keep and might get released. Given how poorly he did, he can't be expecting a raise, so perhaps he an stick around for around $1M for 2009. We will see, but if he's healthy and starting like he has shown he can do, our rotation will be excellent, best in the majors, as Correia can pitch like a middle rotation guy at times, like a good starter at other times, which is excellent coming from the back of the rotation.

Amazingly enough, if Lowry can come back and pitch like he used to, taking over the #5 rotation spot, our rotation could potentially (if Sanchez and Zito can continue to do well) not have many weak points during the season as Lowry is capable of at least mid-rotation performance. That's what gets me excited about the Giants future, most teams have a lousy #5 starter and a lot have a lousy #4 starter as well, but the Giants could potentially fill the rotation with pitchers capable of #1 and #2 type performances, all with ERA's under 4.00.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

40 Man Rostering

Ran across some roster moves by the Giants during the month of September that might not have gotten much press as the season waned:
  • Guillermo Rodriguez was released, apparently to add Scott McClain to the 40 man roster. G-Rod's days were numbered once Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval came up and started hitting from the beginning and never stopped.
  • Clay Timpner was removed from the 40-man roster in order to add Conor Gillaspie. It appears that no team picked up Timpner, a classic Giants prospect: great defense but can't really hit.
  • Matt Palmer and Brian Horwitz were both removed from the 40-man roster. It appears that neither was picked up on waivers, so they are both still in the system. I'm not surprised by Palmer, but Horwitz I thought might be picked up by an AL team, he would be a natural as a DH, that is, if the power he showed this season can be duplicated at the MLB level, as his defense apparently was pretty bad.
  • Vinnie Chulk was granted free agency. No more jokes using his last name for Giants fans. Not sure how or why he outgrew his welcome, he did pretty well for them last season but not so much this season, and from what I recall, he did not go down to the minors quietly either, which Brian Sabean does not like, vocally negative players (or was that Messenger?). I suppose it also has to do with his age (he'll be 30 next season), his lack of a strikeout pitch, his lack of control (didn't have a very high K/BB ratio, meaning his walk rate was too high for his K-rate), and his probably being arbitration eligible, which would mean a payday boost from the $396,000 he got this season to probably somewhere between $750K and $1M. Thanks for the 2006 and great 2007 seasons, good luck whereever you land.

The 40 man roster, however, is basically full right now, there are 41 players listed, with Valdez and Lowry not counting because of the 60 day DL list. Vizquel and Aurilia will clear out spots when they become free agents. It has been rumored/speculated in various Giants water coolers that Correia, Hennessey, Taschner, and/or Walker will be released because of their salaries. None of them are scheduled for big raises, so I don't agree, but this is a possibility so I note it.

Alfonzo could be part of that as well, particularly with Sandoval and Holm around. Plus Yabu is 40 now, so he could possibly go as well. And McClain could be dropped as well. And if the Giants finally decide to go with Schierholtz in RF, they will gain a spot when Winn gets traded to open a spot for Schierholtz. Lastly, Ishikawa, I am pretty sure, is out of options, and if he took a bench spot behind Sandoval, he would be there as defense at 1B in late game situations and a power lefty bat off the bench, which is not what Sabean has looked for in his bench players, he prefers flexibility in positions played, so Ishikawa could be gone as well.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Post-season State of the Giants Media Conference: 2008

The other day, Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy did the post-season state of the Giants media conference the Giants do every year the day after the season ends. Video is linked at this sfgiants.com website, but Andy Baggarly kindly transcribed this for fans at his blog. I will do as I usually do and comment after each answer by the Giants, so I'm copying the transcript into here:

Q: The goal this season was to identify young players who can contribute as you go forward. On that basis, how successful was the season?
A: I think we’re all surprised by the amount of guys we got up here with very little higher-level minor league experience, and almost to a man, all these kids were able to be comfortable and show they can play at the major league level. We had some guys who were much further ahead. What it means for the next year remains to be seen, but if you went through every name that was called up, in most cases, they did a good job individually and collectively. So in that sense we were surprised at their relative performance vs. their experience. Because you really never know. And there were so many.

ogc: Typical Sabean response, kind of says something but in the end didn't really get anything of value for the fan. Hard to get him to open up all the time. But good question, nonetheless.

Q: How much less work is ahead of you this winter based on the emergence of some younger guys?
A: Well, position-wise we’re in better shape because of the Sandovals of the world, and Burriss, specifically, and Lewis coming back off the injury. Those are guys we’ll plug in in some form. I don’t want to speak for Bochy. I don’t know what’s going to happen in the offseason, but Lewis should return to full strength and be our left fielder. Where he hits in the order is debatable. I think at this point we’ll pencil in Sandoval as our first baseman, and Burriss showed especially in the second half his ability to play shortstop when called on to play every day. Those three positions alone, and also the bullpen in Hinshaw’s case or Romo’s case, makes us that much further ahead, I think.

One of the disappointing things was not having Lowry for the whole season, Valdez crashing and burning when he was really close to turning a corner and could’ve meant something to the bullpen, and from a won-loss total, I think we were really affected losing Lewis and Burriss when we did.

ogc: Another good question. Well, Lewis is the LF and I assume Rowand is the CF, so when he says later on that he's open to getting a middle lineup corner OF, I assume Winn is the odd man out. Fluidity and versatility is the word this off-season as last. Last season, he left 3B open so that if Durham returned to normal, then Frandsen, assuming he does well, would slide to 3B (or so my theory went) but that plan went awry when Frandsen had his injury (which I've wondered since, how does an Achillies Tendon rupture, would that eventually have happened or was just a freak injury?). He also left 1B open, with Aurilia playing, but then they brought up Bowker up pretty fast to start at 1B regularly.

For 2009, right now it looks like Sandoval at 1B, Frandsen/Velez at 2B, Burriss at SS, ? at 3B, but I assume that is because it all depends on how the off-season works for Sabean. If he gets a power bat at 1B, I assume that Sandoval would shift to 3B. If not, then Sandoval would stay at 1B but Frandsen could end up at 3B, or even Aurilia again, if the Giants end up re-signing him (doubtful, though, he wants to play, and play here, but the Giants are putting him on back-burner; he can wait only so long before he has to take a job elsewhere). He could also get someone at any other infield position, then people would have to shift.

Q: Will you approach this winter with the thought that a player or two could make you a contending team in 2009?
A: I don’t know. Our goal this year was to introduce as many of these guys as we could, yet also win as many games than we could. We ended up winning one more game than we did last year. Now, what that means and how far we’ve distanced ourselves from the past, we’ll find out next year. Because there’s an expectation level on these kids that have performed, including the names I just mentioned. The good thing is I think we very much distinguished what our problems are. The bullpen was just not up to par talent-wise and performance wise. And we also know the lineup needs some injection of run-producing help. That said, guys like Sandoval weren’t up here all year. And when you get in a comfort zone of knowing who’s going to pitch after the starter, you can make great strides. That’s our goal. If we can plug those two holes, it’s easier for Bochy to manage on a game-by-game basis.

I think we can play winning baseball. That’s certainly something we talked about after last night’s game. You can’t predict what’s going to happen in this division, whether it be teams that were successful like the Dodgers or teams that were down like Colorado or where Arizona finished. We’ve just got to take care of our own business.

It was a great group to be around. Everybody bought in. I think the veterans fed off the young talent and enthusiasm. By the same token, the young kids had the benefit of the veterans, taking their medicine and playing when called upon. Every one of these veterans in some way has helped these kids. Everybody bought in on the roster, including veterans. I think we were out there early more than any team I’ve been around or remember, and I think it’s made a difference. It made a difference with the work ethic and the camaraderie and moreso how some of these guys, at the end of the season, looked like major league players.

ogc: Typical Sabean, talks around the question plus injects some rah-rah positivity into the mix. And, of course, the cliches. Basically outlines needs over winter: run-producer and bullpen help. Borderline good question, Sabean could have mailed it in, but ended up giving some good info.

Q: First year without Bonds. How did it go?

A: I didn’t know what to expect. In some ways we’re happy we can identify going into the future where some of these kids fit. By the same token, we failed in some areas. I thought we’d be much better on the pitching front, and we weren’t. When you’re challenged to score three or four runs a game, it’s difficult for the starters to not try to do more than the result. That’s one of the reasons you saw our starters have losing records. We couldn’t score for them. As you get into a mode to win a series, we didn’t finish games off before we got to the closer, and that was deflating. If we can get more than a run a game from a different combination in the lineup, and we can finish the job after the starter, getting to the closer, I think a lot of good things can happen.

ogc: Typical Sabean, talks around the question plus injects some rah-rah positivity into the mix. And, of course, the cliches. Emphasized his answer to last question: we need better bullpen and better run production. Wow, he's looking for more than a run added - we scored about 4.0 runs per game, so that would push us to 5.0 and about 800 runs scored. Even with Bonds we didn't always do that, particularly last couple of years. Interesting thing was that the Giants averaged 4.2 runs in August after Sandoval and Ishikawa joined the lineup and 4.4 runs in September, after Schierholtz and other call-ups joined team. Thus the improvement in the lineup he's hoping for - 162 runs improvement - about 70 of that is covered by the people already on the team in September.

Q: What do you believe is the most likely avenue to acquiring the 30-homer, 100-RBI player you need?
A: Well, I don’t know that guy is out there or exists. You guys know the names. If you asked me today, based on the research we’ve done to this point and what we get back from the scouts, I think our best avenue is going to be trade versus a free agent. There aren’t that many free agents as difference makers go. We’ll be involved in that area but I’m not going to hang our hopes on getting that type of player. It may be a combination of players.

ogc: Good question but same old, same old, answer as when he was asked who we might get to protect Bonds or be his successor. Point is that he's looking to trade, not to sign a free agent. And he set the bar high on free agents, he would have to be a difference maker. Not sure what he means by combination of players, other than some players shouldn't get comfortable that they have a starting position with the Giants in 2009.

Q: We all know it’s a tight trade market. Would it take someone like Matt Cain to get that impact hitter?
A: No. Not Matt Cain specifically. You guys can sit down at the computer and look at teams that are heavy on arbitration-eligible candidates, teams that are changing their roster or teams that are just looking for any type of pitching to be successful. I don’t think it’ll take trading Matt Cain to get something done.

ogc: Another good questions. I assume he has kicked some tires around the league to find out what it might take to get players like that plus, I suppose, from his long career of doing such valuations. I would agree, just a couple of years ago, we could have gotten Carlos Gomez from the Mets for Sanchez, and now he's a bit more proven, though still inconsistent. However, this was the most innings he has thrown in a number of years, so perhaps he petered out at the end from exhaustion. His stats were excellent, under 4 ERA until he reached the 100 IP level, which was already 50 more IP than in 2007, then he pushed it to 158 IP total. A good comp is Oliver Perez, another lefty who is brilliant one moment, but inconsistent overall, and the Pirates were able to get Xavier Nady for him. We could use a Xavier Nady-type hitter at one of the corner infield positions.

Q: Are you prepared to say Cain and Lincecum are untouchable?
A: In my mind, they are. I’m not going to trade the Cy Young winner, whether he is or not. Matty, at 23, pitched like a Cy Young at times.

ogc: In his mind they are, but are they in reality? That's the thing that gnawed at me, until I realized that he is probably acknowledging that maybe some GM might drop from the sky and offer him a great package for Cain, an offer he couldn't refuse, but more likely, nobody is going to make that offer, so Cain and Lincecum in particular is untouchable. And that is the way it should be. They are the basis of our competitive advantage going forward, until hopefully Bumgarner is ready to join them. Good question, though, glad this was asked, no wiggle room for Sabean to escape.

Q: So Lincecum is your Cy Young pick?
A: I don’t think it’s close. Whatever happens, he’s our choice. If you just look at wining percentage, the number of games we failed him when he came out with a lead, hits per innings, strikeouts per inning … Maybe you should ask a couple of veteran players on each team (who they’d rather face). That’s not to take anything away from Brandon Webb, who’s already won one. But like this kid showed yesterday, he’s pretty special, and I think anybody that faced him would admit that, just from the pure stuff alone. And really, the numbers don’t lie.

ogc: He has to say this, stupid question on the part of the media. What else is he going to say?

Q: (to Bochy) Would you look forward to managing a young team next season?
A: As Brian mentioned, a lot of these kids showed they can play up here and belong up here. We talked yesterday and I said that the silver lining on this season is that a lot of guys got to realize their dream of playing up here, and not only that, but they were playing up here to win. These kids, Burriss, Sandoval, showed that. They’re not just happy to be here. I liked the way they played to win. Their approach and enthusiasm wasn’t just to stay in the major leagues. I like the attitude they have. I’d be very content with having these young players because I like the way they played. That’s what we wanted to change: out culture, our brand of ball. I think they influenced the veterans, too, with how they came up and played.

ogc: Another dumb question, what is Bochy going to say, no, it was horrible? And he sold his agenda of the "warrior" spirit, the "gamer" and gave a plug to the youngsters, probably to show the naysayers that he can manage young players.

Q: Is the rotation a concern?
A: It could be, especially with Noah having the second surgery. Hopefully that’s the last thing to get him ready for the spring, but I think you have to put him off to the side. After what’s happened the last couple years moving (minor league) pitchers, without naming names, we’ve got some guys who are pretty darn good who could be up here in a hurry next year. We might have more depth than we think. We don’t have the experience you’d want, but from a talent standpoint, we should have some choices.

ogc: Good question, interesting answer. I have to assume he is talking about Bumgarner and Alderson. There is no one else ready to move up to the majors in a hurry, and only Sosa would have the potential too, but he had a setback in 2008. That's how they did it with Sanchez a couple of years ago, he was striking out a lot in the low minors then was pushed to the majors quickly. Doesn't sound like they are looking to sign a starting pitcher.

Q: Would you at least dip your toe in the free-agent market for starters?
A: We’ll look heavily in the market for relief help. Whether we decide to do that with a starting pitcher remains to be seen, because I think the price is going to be exorbitant.

ogc: In other words, Sabathia is probably going to be priced too high for the Giants to be interested. I wonder who is available for the bullpen.

Q: Is it important to reestablish home-field advantage?
A: It’s been lacking for a while. We have to have one or two guys on this team that can hit a three-run homer. When you keep the game close in this ballpark, because of the pitching in the division, you have to have a chance to clear the bases, whether it’s a double or somebody hitting a home run. I think the reason teams had success coming in here is when they pitched with us, and we didn’t have that extra bat, or a bat that can play to the park, you’re going to have a hard time. You can’t win every game 3-2 or 2-1. We’re hoping to change that.

ogc: We didn't have home advantage early in the season, but from August on, we were good, 10-6 in August, 7-5 in September, 17-11 over the last two months. So we did re-established home-field advantage by the end of the season, with the help of hot hitting from Sandoval, Burriss, Schierholtz, and Ishikawa. And of course Tim Lincecum going 5-1 at home helped too.

But mainly, it was late game offensive heroics (of course, lack of heroics early on helped set this up, but at least they finally delivered) as it was mostly relievers who won games during those two months, Brian Wilson was 3-0 (though meaning he blew 3 saves, but still), and all the rest of the guys won one each almost, Taschner, Espineli, Matos, Hinshaw, Romo, plus Walker won two (Yabu nothing), so the bullpen was 10-0 altogether during that stretch. So the bullpen was pretty good during that stretch in terms of keeping the team close until the offense could win it.

So perhaps the bullpen is not in as bad a shape as Sabean or fans think.

Q: Are your top minor league prospects as untouchable as Cain and Lincecum?
A: There will be a final list that we won’t trade and a list we won’t necessarily shop but put into play as we talk to people. It’s all relative on the value coming back. We’re not going to be trading for somebody with one year remaining on the contract. It’s going to have to be present and future.

ogc: This is standard operating procedure (SOP) for the Giants, the player development organization has "the list" which I assume they maintain during the season then have a final version after the season, and the list basically names the above, who the keepers are (won't trade) plus who they would be OK trading without question plus the above who they won't necessarily shop but put into play should their names come up.

People like to denigrate Sabean for his player evaluations but they forget that a decision on who to keep or trade among prospects is the better gauge of his and his group's ability to judge talent than free agents, because in free agency, you don't sign them because you think that they are the best or even that good, you sign them because you have a need and they are the best available on the market and the edict was to win within the budget with Bonds (not great for a rallying call but that's what they were doing).

By that measure, Sabean has been great, he kept Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, Lewis, Sandoval, all these young guys who currently make up our roster and played well down the stretch. People who like to put down Sabean still basically are saying that they don't like having Lincecum, Cain, et al, the team as it is constructed. They, frankly, either don't know what they are missing or don't see how their logic is twisted. You can't like having Cain, Lincecum, etc. and still denigrate Sabean because Sabean is the one who acquired them all and built up the team as it is today. They don't see this dichotomy in logic, if you are going to put down Sabean and all he does, you are putting down the team as it is today, you are saying that you don't like having Lincecum, Cain, etc., as it was Sabean who put together the team. Sabean.

Q: Your thoughts on moving forward with Bill Neukom replacing Peter Magowan?
A: The period of adjustment will be how the group dynamics work. As a group, we were always available and always together. If it wasn’t in the same building, we pretty much punched the clock the same way. Peter was always available in his office or by phone. If he wasn’t you could certainly get a hold of Larry. I can’t answer for Bill but I’m sure one of his goals is to get here as soon as he can and get in a regimen as to how he’s going to control his time. That’s one of the reasons we’ve had the continuity we’ve had. You’ve got to spend time. You’ve got to be around your people. When you’re having a cup of coffee and something comes into your mind, you can walk down to somebody’s office. So I’m looking forward to seeing how all that gets settled.

ogc: Looks like Neukom hasn't spoken to Sabean about what he's going to do. To me, this could mean that Neukom isn't rubber stamping Sabean for the future, as he didn't think he had to tell Sabean what his initial plans are, he's kept Sabean in the dark on how he wants to operate. It could also be that Neukom really was serious about not taking over until Magowan is out and really not talk about anything until that happens.

But that don't seem likely to me, if I were coming in, I would have initial talks with the key people in the organization and let them know how I'm going to operate. Then again, he could be busy winding down his duties as president of the Bar Association, or whatever that job he is giving up. Still, seems pretty elemental thing to share with your direct reports before coming in, you are standing around with cocktails after getting named/announced the new managing partner, you see Brian, you say you look forward to working with him, don't know the details yet of how things will work, but this is how I like to work. And yet Sabean has no idea whether Neukom will be around to talk with him.

I will add here that Neukom has said that he's moving down here as part of the deal of taking over the Giants. That would imply that he's going to be around for Sabean to talk with as he described above, because there is no other reason for Neukom to move down here if he's planning on NOT being around and available at the offices.

Q: Have you talked to Neukom lately?
A: We’ve had a couple meetings. He’ll be here next week. Boch has talked to him, not as formally as I have. We’ve talked about the budget, the mechanics of running baseball operations, what goes into it, the personnel. What goes into player development and scouting, just all the dynamics of what goes into this side of the house. Now I’m sure he’s going to be just as involved and inquisitive about the business side.

ogc: OK, so they have definitely been talking, but it seems to be one-sided, with Sabean passing on all his knowledge and processes to Neukom. I would have loved to hear all that, that would be interesting stuff. This shows that Neukom wants to be up and running with the turnover, as it is probably the baseball side that he knows the least about.

But remember, when the change was announced, one of the side things that happened was that Larry Baer was promoted to President and that he would now be handling the baseball side of the operations, taking over from Peter, and that Neukom would take over the business side from Baer.

As I said back then, when it was all announced, the Giants are clearly grooming Larry Baer to take over the Giants in the future. This is classic corporate stuff, you assign the annointed one to different duties so that he/she learns the whole operation/company over time, until it is time to promote him to the final step of taking over everything.

Q: Payroll expectations?
A: I think it’s about the same with some flexibility. As Peter was in the past, and he spoke for the whole group, if something comes up and we need to stretch the budget or it’s a special case, they’ll be willing to do that, and Bill has voiced that. On the field, we were in and around $80 (million). We spent less than our budget. We spent $90-plus (including deferrals).

ogc: Not quite true, the rumors over the years was that some of the owners were not happy about having to chip in more dough. I think it will be more true now that Neukom is in charge, his stated operating philosophy or procedure is to think about winning first, figuring out how to pay for it later. Thus I am hoping that the Giants will be bidding for the elite players every off-season, but won't just sign a free agent to fill every hole but within budget, which is what happened when trying to win with Bonds in his later years.

They spent less than their budget but I assume that was because it's a zero-sum game and they spent a lot on the draft and internationally this year, so they had to spend less somewhere else. Again, I think this will be less of a problem going forward if Neukom sticks to his stated operating procedure of thinking winning first, which means he'll find the money later, if necessary.

And this is a good time to do that, with attendance down and the economy sinking, the Giants will need to develop deep pockets because otherwise the budget would slip downward.

Q: Are you concerned about Rowand’s second half?
A: I don’t know whether it was this simple, but there was a lot of hype with him and Bengie about the All-Star possibility and they both hit a downturn around that time. Bengie had a bounceback and Aaron didn’t. One of the things that contributed to Aaron’s subpar second half is I think he let the ballpark get to him, and that’s something he’ll have to learn from. But he certainly didn’t have a good second half. It was a tale of two seasons. He had a chance to make the All-Star team. That’s one of the topics of discussion we had last night and that’s something we’ll continue talking about the next couple weeks about how to get him in a better position to finish stronger with us. One thing that’s going to help all of us is another bat. Boch could have done different things with him in the lineup, whether he was going good or struggling, if we had a more set lineup or a more experienced lineup.

ogc: I have to believe that there was some sort of injury that occurred somewhere in the late May, early June timeframe to Rowand. He batted .326/.366/.500/.866 in April, then .343/.431/.556/.987 in May, yet didn't crack .800 OPS the rest of the season, which matches what happened to him the year he bashed his nose on the fence, aces before, bad afterward. When I get time, I was going to chronicle his season, series by series, to see if I could see if there is anything else I could notice.

Q: (to Bochy) Bengie says he’s not a cleanup hitter. Is it your goal to get a hitter who can bat fourth?
Sure, that would be ideal. There aren’t a lot of 4-hitters out there, I understand that. Bengie to me can be a 4 hitter. He seems to enjoy hitting with runners in scoring position. When you see a guy who doesn’t run well, sure, you think he’s more conducive to the back of the order. That didn’t concern me as much as needing a guy who can get a clutch hit, and Bengie can do that. But sure, it’d be great to have somebody who could go in the 4-hole where you could drop some guys down. I think Rowand is a 6-hole or maybe even a 7-hole hitter. I think at times he did press trying to be that guy to do the damage and drive in runs and it caught up with him. And there’s the frustration sometimes of hitting a ball well here in this ballpark (without a reward). I think he let it compound the damage and these are things we’re going to talk to him about so he doesn’t put that added pressure on himself.

ogc: Typical, Bochy says he thinks Rowand's a 7-hole and someone scanning the text comments that it was Sabean idiocy for paying so much for a hitter who he thinks is a 7th place hitter. Sabaen Naysayers lurk everywhere.

I don't care how much of a hitter Molina is, you don't put a player who can't get on base much in the cleanup position, you just don't. 5th is the highest I would go, though I could be convinced to go with batting 3rd, if I look at the lineup calculation numbers again, as OBP don't matter as much there. Personally, I would have batted Rowand there; even when he was slumping, his OBP was about that of Molina for much of the year. For 2009, I would bat Molina 5th or 6th, depends on how 1B and 3B works out, plus RF: if I had Sandoval, Ishikawa, and Schierholtz around, you can rotate in hitters to take cleanup and perhaps 5th too.

Rowand, I think he's fine in 5th as long as he's hitting normal, but he should have fallen to 7th the way he was hitting most of the season, even 8th in Sept. With more power options, he could.

Q: Where will Schierholtz fit?
A: I’m not sure yet. Personally, I don’t think I know enough about him. We know Randy’s got another year on his contract. Roberts is pretty much a bench player, as he was this year, and Schierholtz is going to be on this team in some form. He’s out of options and too good to go back to the minor leagues. With the short window here with the Olympics, and what we had up here, I don’t know that he had enough at-bats. I certainly couldn’t tell you where he would hit in the order. I don’t know how much power I could project from him hitting in this ballpark. We all like the fact he can swing the bat, he can hit to all fields and he’s shown power in the minor leagues. But I’m not sure about him because of the smaller sample size, as opposed to a Sandoval, who is a no-brainer. He’s going to have to have a good spring training and we’ll find out what’s in our best interests as to where he plays and how much.

ogc: Good news here is acknowledgement of Roberts as bench player, meaning Lewis is starting in LF, and that he's going to let Schierholtz's play in spring training determine the Giants moves. If he can start out on fire, Sabean might trade Winn mid-to-late spring to a team suffering an injury and wanting a good OF to come in, there's always an injury out there for a playoff pursuing team. I think that's fair enough as long as he gets enough AB to do it.

Q: Will you be open to acquiring a big bat at any position, even if you have to move other pieces around?
A: I think we have to be. That came up, as well as the what-if Sandoval played third. One thing I didn’t mention: we haven’t played the defense we used to. Some of which is all the moving pieces on the infield, some was because these kids had all they could handle to concentrate on one side of the game. It’s a big task for a kid to play both sides of the ball. But we’ll have to be open-minded.

ogc: Seems like he's going with his plan like last season, when he got Rowand and we seemingly had some many CF, he will acquire the power bat first, then figure things out positionally. Also seems like he's willing to let one our bats be that if he hits for us in spring training.

Q: What do you think of Zito and Wilson living together this winter?
A: Dick Tidrow said it best, I think. He’ll get Barry to throw 89 and he’ll try to throw 105. I don’t know what more he can do with his workouts, but it’s kind of unique. Wilson is off the charts with his diligence. But he’ll still have to pitch no matter how hard he throws. We’ve discussed that also.

ogc: The best speakers can take a question and mold it into a message that you would like to get out there. Here, he turned it into a comment on Wilson's performance and how he should pitch and not throw.

Q: Who’s your top candidate to play second base?
A: We’re all pulling for Frannie. To not do so would not be fair to the kid and the organization. He’s really, in all our minds, capable. Again, what that looks like, what it means to the order … I think defensively it would look nice on paper if it came to fruition. But we’ll need as much offense from every position as can get, and as Bochy can tell you, he’s probably limited to only a couple places in the order. I don’t know how much he’ll be able to play this winter, because it’s very difficult to place an American infielder in Latin America for obvious reasons. So he’s at the mercy of trying to get work. We can catch him up with some at-bats in instructional league.

ogc: Looks like Frandsen got the front runner position to play 2B but that is all predicated on his being able to hit in spring training like he used to. I think he's also up for playing 3B should Velez breaks out and they put him at 2B, his best position.

Q: Could Velez be an everyday second baseman?
A: It’s possible. If you look at how far he’s come, through anybody’s eyes, he’s probably made the biggest improvement. Once he got comfortable defensively and knew he would play quite a bit at one position, he got comfortable offensively. He’ll be on the team and he’s going to contribute, and I wouldn’t rule that possibility out.

ogc: Velez played very well once he came back to the majors in August, hitting .792 OPS in August and .825 in September, good numbers fora 2B. I think he and Frandsen will battle for 2B, and if both do well, Frandsen would probably play 3B, Velez 2B. I think the way 3B will turn out is that Rohlinger and Gillaspie will get a good look in spring training, getting a lot of ABs there. If Frandsen and Velez do well, they would be 3B and 2B, respectively. If only one do well, then they could go with Rohlinger as starter until they figure out what to do with the position. There's always Sandoval at 3B and Ishikawa at 1B.

Q: Do you see a place for Vizquel or Aurilia on the team next year?
A: I see zero with Omar. We talked about that in person yesterday. Richie is a different story. That decision will come later. Richie was a tremendous asset in plugging what we needed on the field, be it at third base or first base. He had a nice season and because of it he’ll have some people come after him, including perennial winners or teams that view themselves as contenders. Before the end of the season, he said he was interested in coming back and we said we’d be open minded, but if it’s going t ohappen, it’ll have to be at a later date because of what we need to do first with younger players and spreading the payroll. But he was a big help.

ogc: Just like with Bonds, the Giants clearly said in no uncertain terms, if you come back, you have to go to another team Omar. That clears the path for Burriss so that he doesn't have to worry about the Giants switching to Vizquel if he hits a bad patch. The Giants will clearly give whoever starts at SS in 2009 a lot of play early on to find himself, with Burriss as the incumbent for 2009.

Aurilia, however, makes a lot of sense, given the right circumstances. If the Giants somehow acquire a good 3B, then Aurilia don't make a lot of sense, as he would mainly play 1B and 3B. But if it is two rookies manning 1B and 3B, say Ishikawa and Sandoval, it would make good sense to sign Aurilia as backup for either position should either falter after two months. Plus he can play SS and 2B in a pinch. But that probably means he won't sign with the Giants until Jan/Feb, and I don't think he will wait that long, he is probably going to sign with another team by the end of 2008.

Q: Hard to part ways with Vizquel?
A: As you all know being around him, he wants to do it on his terms. One thing that was really embarrassing to him was that he wasn’t hitting .200. He felt he wasn’t contributing or helping the ballclub. But once he started playing more, started hitting, got it over .200 and helped us win some games, I think he made the decision that he knew he could play and wanted to for another year. But he also saw the situation here for what it was with the young kids, especially with Burriss.

ogc: Didn't answer the question, so it's probably not that hard, but didn't want to embarrass Omar publicly with the true answer. Kind of a fluffy question to ask.

Q: Coaches coming back?
A: Yes. We’ve got everyone on contract for another year except Flannery and Roberto (Kelly), and they will be re-upped.

ogc: No real reaction other than I like what Kelly has done for our running game in the firstbase box and I like having Carney Lansford as hitting coach, still can't believe that, would have thought he would go the A's route, though probably it was because the Giants were his team growing up that drew him to work here.

Q: What was Magowan’s best quality?
A: If you look at it from the inside out, he was a guy that was so passionate yet he didn’t impose his will. He didn’t impose his ego. He wanted to know what you thought and he knew how tough your job was. At the end of the day, he let you be yourself. He wasn’t interested in controlling people, how they act or dress. He let us grow in a way. I’ve been here since ‘93 as an assistant and I don’t think he’s ever changed. Whether we won or lost, made a good decision or bad decision. I was never in a conversation with him where he placed blame or browbeat you about something. And I think that’s admirable. Most of our tough decisions we made as an organization and if it went well, we celebrated. If it went the other way, we blamed everybody involved. We didn’t pile on one person. So that was a unique quality.

ogc: Except that Magowan publicly said that had he been given the chance to veto the Nathan trade, he would have. I think Sabean answered this question honestly, though, as every boss, whether you agree with him or not, have qualities that you can admire in some way.

Giants Thoughts

I'm kind of beat so I probably won't add much here, as I am planning to do my own post-mortem on the season in a post. I would say here that I was barely right, I said before the season that the team would be closer to .500 than losing 100 games, and I was right by one win, they were 9 wins away from .500, and 10 less wins away from 100 losses. I'll admit that I didn't see Lincecum doing as well as he did, but I would have been close, as he went 94.1 IP last season after figuring things out during his bad spell with 96 strikeouts, 40 walks, 2.96 ERA, plus he ended the year on a downnote too, giving suggestion that he could be even better if he built up his stamina for 2008.

I guess I should comment on the conference overall. Usual Sabean post-season chat: he speaks cautiously and yet parcels out interesting bits of information on how the team will proceed in the off-season and next season; the media ask a number of dumb questions, though this year seems to have less than in past years, probably because the cream is all that is left after the mergers with newspapers and stuff; good stuff overall.

Most importantly, states that Lincecum and Cain are off-limits, despite fans insistence that he wanted to trade one of them or should trade one of them. Both pitchers are Giants for a while. And that is good, they are the basis for us winning in the playoffs when we return. And we are probably just a good bat away from returning, based on what we saw in the last two months.

Reaffirms that Lewis is in LF and Burriss is SS, plus says that Sandoval is 1B. That leaves Rowand CF, Winn RF, Molina C, with 2B and 3B in play. It also sounds like if Schierholtz can convince the Giants in spring training or even early season, they would trade Randy Winn and open up RF for him. I expect Bowker to play in AAA and be the first one up if anybody falters at RF or 1B, or get injured in the OF or 1B.

However, no one should get comfortable because the Giants are looking to acquire a power hitter via trade most probably that is not a one year rental. Despite what I've read, Sanchez has done enough to headline a trade for such a player with another prospect or two - good example is the Oliver Perez trade for Xavier Nady. So if said player happens to start at any of these "set" positions, it could domino into other trades as we get rid of players.

Interestingly, hints that Bumgarner and Alderson (couldn't be anyone else) are not that far away from starting in the major leagues if the need should arise. Thus probably Sanchez, Correia, Hennessey, and Misch, plus Walker, Taschner, Chulk, maybe Pucetas, Tanner, Snyder, English, Sosa and Joaquin too, are probably available in a package to acquire said power hitter, because the Giants see Bumgarner and Alderson as close enough to the the majors (which would fulfill Sabean's then-brash comment that both are on the fast track to make the majors within two years/seasons). I wouldn't be surprised to see Bumgarner starting and Alderson relieving in the big leagues in 2009 (though 2010 is probably more likely for their debut, though a 2009 September call-up is not out of the question).

He points out the bullpen as a problem area and area to acquire a free agent, so that means they are probably shopping for a good setup reliever to go with Hinshaw and Romo (in case one falters, there would still be two), because Valdez, who would be good, cannot be relied on to fill that role. As I noted above, the bullpen was pretty good overall down the stretch, but he always liked having a strong bullpen so I would take this as sign that he thinks the team is close and can splurge to get a set-up guy.

What the team needs to solidify the pen is Wilson and two set-up guys you can rely on. Hinshaw and Romo appear to be those guys, but relying on both to deliver is pushing it if you hope to get better, thus the decision to acquiring a set-up reliever via free agency. The only thing I don't like about this is that this would probably cost us our 2nd round pick for 2009, a high price to pay for a reliever, even a good one.

Payroll appears to be balanced out for 2009. While Zito gets $4M more in 2009 plus Cain and Lowry both got about $2M more, we drop Omar's $5M, maybe Aurilia's $4.5M (though he could sign back for $1-2M), probably Hennessey's $1.6M, maybe Correia's $1M, probably Walker's $750K, and perhaps Winn's $8.25M might get traded. Thus, though attendence is down, the Giants should have enough money left over again to sign another top player with their draft pick next season (not sure of placement because of tie with Atlanta, either 6th or 7th pick) or just the regular pick, plus pick up another international free agent. And, of course, there's the free agent set-up reliever and the power hitter, which would be wild cards in terms of payroll impact.

The media did pretty well with questions this year but there are other questions I would have asked.
  • I'm disappointed that the media did not ask any questions about Villalona and Rodriguez, the former about how he met or didn't meet expectations, the latter about what the plans are right now for 2009, plus any further comments they can make about him.
  • I would have also asked for some scenarios on what would have to happen for Bumgarner and/or Alderson to make the majors in 2009 versus 2010.
  • I would also have liked to hear where the Giants might place Posey if he dominates the Hawaii Winter League (Kieschnick hit a homer and Posey went 2 for 5, the other day), which is considered to be as good as AA pitching; would they start him in AAA for 2009? And start the Bengie Molina death march?
  • I would have also wanted to know about their plans for Ishikawa in 2009, since he only plays 1B, played well enough when given the chance, and should be out of options for 2009, much like Schierholtz.
  • I would have also liked to hear something about Wendell Fairley, he disappointed early on but then caught up in a hurry and was selected by Baseball America for the Top 20 list for his league, though I think he was close to 20th, high teens.

Overall, the big news that I was glad came out was that Cain and Lincecum are untouchables. After that, everything was gravy. In addition, it was good to know that they are looking for a run-producing bat and reliever this off-season, to know what their priorities are this off-season. Plus, I would keep an eye out about Bumgarner and Alderson for 2009, could be up at some point. Sanchez made the jump pretty quickly and if the team needed it, they probably would have brought up both in 2008. But waiting is better, so I would expect them to get called up only if somehow we were competing for the division late in 2009 and needed pitching help, otherwise it is more probable that they are up in the big leagues in 2010. Those, I think, were the big news that came out of this press conference.

Friday, September 26, 2008

2008 Giants: August PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of August 2008, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this).

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.

Giants Starters' PQS for 2008 Season (as of August 31st, 2008)

Matt Cain - (60% DOM, 7% DIS; 18:2/30): 3, 0, 4, 0, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 4, 2

Kevin Correia - (37% DOM, 26% DIS; 7:5/19): 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 0, 4, 2 (did not count start where injured)

Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (79% DOM, 0% DIS; 22:0/28): 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4*, 5, 5, 5 (didn't count relief outing as start; * start where he was injured by batted ball, just 2 outs away from DOM 4 game so I gave it to him.)

Pat Misch - (38% DOM, 38% DIS; 3:3/8): 4, 0, 4, 4, 2, 0, 2, 0 (counted relief after Zito since 6 IP)

Matt Palmer - (0% DOM, 67% DIS; 0:2/3): 0, 3, 0

Jonathan Sanchez - (46% DOM, 25% DIS; 11:6/24): 0, 5, 2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 4

Barry Zito - ( 19% DOM, 37% DIS; 5:10/27): 1, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (Skip), 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 0, 1, 1, 0, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 0


Giants season overall - 47% DOM, 21% DIS out of 140 games counted (66:29/140)

Giants Month of April - 43% DOM, 30% DIS out of 30 games counted (13:9/30)

Giants Month of May - 61% DOM, 14% DIS out of 28 games counted (17:4/28)

Giants Month of June - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 27 games counted (13:6/27)

Giants Month of July - 38% DOM, 19% DIS out of 26 games counted (10:5/26)

Giants Month of August- 45% DOM, 17% DIS out of 29 games counted (13:5/29)

First, some procedural notes. I didn't count Lincecum's relief session as a start, nor did I count it as a start for Valdez, in the D-gers game. I also didn't count Correia's injury start where he only pitched a third of an inning. However, I did count Misch's first outing, in relief of Zito, as a start because he went 6 innings and I felt he deserved it. And I counted Lincecum's start when he was injured by a batted ball, as he was dominating up to that point and only needed two more outs to reach 5 IP and get a DOM 4.

I normally write something about how they did here, but basically it was all Lincecum, all the time, again. Cain had some good starts as did Correia, while the rest of the starters stumbled along or worse; collectively the rest had 1 DOM start, 4 DIS starts out of 11 starts.

Overall, our rotation is top-notch. Lincecum's DOM is still up among the elites of the majors, if not the best in the majors, Cain is up among the best in the majors, even Sanchez is up among the good pitchers in the league, and even Correia is up among the OK pitchers of the league. Overall, our rotation is, as a whole, ranked almost among the best pitchers (best pitchers have DOM 50% and higher).

Zito, however, has been just plain horrible, but that's what happens in a transitional year like this where he had to hit bottom, with a thud, and has been slowly re-building and re-making himself. I don't know his September results yet (though could calc if had the time) but I do know his first two starts were DOM starts and yesterday's start looks like it was a DOM too, so he looks like he is well on his way, particularly since he has been able to up his velocity back up to the 88 MPH range where he needs to be in order to be successful with his stuff, which is evidenced by his ability to strike out at least the innings pitched minus 2 necessary to qualify for a DOM point.

And strikeouts are very important to DOM starts. Strikeouts are a key component to two DOM points - K >= IP minus 2 and K >= twice BB - making it a critical element of a dominating game, PQS-wise. It also makes it harder overall for hits (less AB's to get hits in) and thus is affecting whether the pitcher can keep his hits total equal to or less than his IP. The last two points are not related at all to strikeouts, IP >= 6.0 and HR <>

What's Good and What's Not

A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes. Thus what Correia has done so far in limited starts is still good, and that's why he earned a spot in the starting position for the 2008 season.

If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher). That's how Lowry was able to pitch well last year, keeping his ERA low while still recovering from his strained oblique and being unable to strike out hitters as much as before, he had very few disaster starts until he had his arm problems and got bombed in September, he had a good ERA, in the high 3's until those starts.

August's Comments

Again, normally write more, but since it's so close to the end of the season, I'll only note that the youth movement didn't really do much for the Giants this season until Sandoval and Ishikawa were brought up and both started hitting like they wanted to stay here a long time. That helped the Giants to a winning month for the first time this season and first since late 2007 season (also August) and best winning percentage since April 2007. In addition, Hinshaw and Romo came up and did likewise, they have been very good in the bullpen, and both could in the set-up spots in 2009 if they continue to do well.

So there was a lot more hope for the 2009 season as of end of August 2008. Lewis has established that 2007 was no fluke, he looks like he'll be manning LF for years to come (bunion permitting) as a league average offensively. Sandoval looks like he'll be rotating around 1B, 3B, and C in 2009, perhaps even start at 3B (probably his most regular position in 2009). Ishikawa has put his name back into strong contention for starting 1B. Burriss was also doing well too, eventually leading to being named starting SS, though he will have to fight off all comers in spring training.

Meanwhile, the Giants signed all their top draft picks, Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, who all immediately become top prospects in our talent poor farm system at, respectively, C, 3B, RF, and SS. Our team appeared to be shaping up very nicely when August 2008 ended.

Lastly, I will leave you with this thought: the Giants record this season is basically what it had last season - with 70 wins, they will be right around last year's 71 wins - which means that the Giants basically replaced Bonds great performance in 2007 with a bunch of players contributing equivalent production overall. Through Lincecum, Fred Lewis's manning of LF, Wilson, Sandoval, Valdez/Hinshaw/Romo, Sanchez, Bowker, Burriss, Schierholtz, and now Velez, plus, of course, Aaron Rowand, all those bits of performance basically equaled replacing the run production of Bonds, which was still very good in 2007 (and also made up for horrible performances at SS until August). Chew on that for a while.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

MAJOR ANNOUCEMENT ABOUT JT SNOW

As reported by Andy Baggarly, the Giants are poised to make a major announcement concerning JT Snow at 6 PM today. As noted, only Brian Sabean will be at the press conference. Tim Kawakami also opines on what this means in his blog as well. There is nothing currently on sfgiants.com regarding this.

I think both their speculations make some logical sense. If Snow was taking an on-field job, then Bruce Bochy would be there. But with Sabean making the announcement, it must have something to do with what Sabean controls as GM, and nothing much with Snow's current trio of roles as broadcaster, coach, or special assistant to Brian Sabean (well, maybe tangentially that but there is no MAJOR growth that can come out of this position). With the PR department using an ALL CAPS headline, presumably this position is very significant, and not some community-rep or other non-decision-making job.

Baggarly throws out there the thought that perhaps it would be naming Snow as the new manager of the Giants, but notes that this is something that would be more likely to happen after Bill Neukom takes over, not slightly before. Yeah, I agree, not a move that should happen without Neukom and it would happen after he takes over, not before, unless, that is, he wants it done as part of the Magowan era, kind of like how Epstein quit the Red Sox for a while when they got rid of some popular player or something, then miraculously became GM again right afterward.

Kawakami goes a bit more speculative, saying that since Larry Baer isn't there, perhaps Sabean is taking on some of Baer's duties while Snow takes over Sabean's duties, leaving Neukom at top, Sabean/Baer next level, then Snow/Barr the next level. I don't see that happening without Neukom there to oversee the proceedings, too big a change without him and Magowan there.

A logical growth from his current position would be becoming a senior advisor like McCovey, but he's too young I think to take on that type of role plus that would lessen Willie Mac's role publicly being "paired" with Snow. Same goes for being Special Assistant to the GM like Felipe Alou, which is on the GM side of the house.

Looking over the various titles and people in those roles, my wild guess on this is that Snow is being named Director of Player Development. Stanley just got that job last year from Jack Hiatt, when Jack retired, but it says that he has 41 years of professional baseball experience, this being his 42nd, making him at least 60 years old and perhaps as much as 63 years old. He could have a multitude of reasons to leave - family (son and daughter), health perhaps (not saying he has something, just that it could be that at his age) - and obviously Snow has some interest in player personnel issues since he was assistant to Brian Sabean and not to Peter Magowan or anyone else.

Nothing else would warrant an ALL CAP headline, though I do recall some announcement this year getting the big PR push and it was not really much of anything. But still, if Brian Sabean is going to be in the press conference, that has to be a pretty significant move somewhere in his department as GM, else he could sent up Tidrow, Barr, or Evans to make the announcement with Snow instead. This role must be something where Snow is reporting in to Sabean, and the role should be significant enough to warrant a press conference, else it would have been quietly announced like all the additions to the Player Personnel area the last couple of years when Barr, Siegle, Schueler, Creech joined the Giants.

Then again, when Stanley took over for Hiatt, that didn't warrant a press conference either.

The only other position worthy of a press conference would be if JT Snow took over as Director of Player Personnel from Bobby Evans, who, if he's not in the press conference, is moving on to another position somewhere else. Another thought is that perhaps the additional duties Evans took on that were more baseball related than operations related (when Colletti bolted) either didn't appeal to him or he didn't do well there, and they are having Snow join in an equivalent position to Evans where he would be the book-end to Evans, taking on the baseball talent evaluation related duties (assuming he has any). Even then, Evans didn't get a press conference when he was named to this position.

Friday, August 08, 2008

2008 Giants: July PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of July 2008, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this).

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.

Giants Starters' PQS for 2008 Season (as of July 31st, 2008)

Matt Cain - (63% DOM, 8% DIS; 15:2/24): 3, 0, 4, 0, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4

Kevin Correia - (31% DOM, 31% DIS; 4:4/13): 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3 (did not count start where injured)

Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (73% DOM, 0% DIS; 16:0/22): 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5 (didn't count relief outing as start)

Pat Misch - (38% DOM, 38% DIS; 3:3/8): 4, 0, 4, 4, 2, 0, 2, 0 (counted relief after Zito since 6 IP)

Jonathan Sanchez - (45% DOM, 27% DIS; 10:6/22): 0, 5, 2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 0, 3, 0, 0

Barry Zito - ( 24% DOM, 38% DIS; 5:8/21): 1, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (Skip), 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 0, 1, 1, 0, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 2


Giants season overall - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 111 games counted (53:24/111)

Giants Month of April - 43% DOM, 30% DIS out of 30 games counted (13:9/30)

Giants Month of May - 61% DOM, 14% DIS out of 28 games counted (17:4/28)

Giants Month of June - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 27 games counted (13:6/27)

Giants Month of July - 38% DOM, 19% DIS out of 26 games counted (10:5/26)

First, some procedural notes. I didn't count Lincecum's relief session as a start, nor did I count it as a start for Valdez, in the D-gers game. I also didn't count Correia's injury start where he only pitched a third of an inning. However, I did count Misch's first outing, in relief of Zito, as a start because he went 6 innings and I felt he deserved it.

The Giants starters had a marginally better July than they did June, in that you want to reduce this DIS but then they lost a lot of DOM too. Cain brought things up a notch, basically equaling what Lincecum has been doing, plus doing something he hasn't done in a while (throwing a complete game) and doing something he's never done before (two consecutive starts with no walks) but Sanchez hit the wall and crashed and burned, there is no better way to say it. And Correia appears to be pitching himself back into shape, but meanwhile, his results have been pretty poor overall. Balancing those drops, slightly, was Zito's return to OK-ness by, while not dominating, he at least wasn't having disaster starts. That enabled the staff as a whole to reduce their DIS starts from 6 to 5 and nearly half the 9 that they did in April.

Cain and Lincecum led the way with 4 DOM starts each. Nobody else did that well, however. As noted, Zito didn't contribute a bunch of DIS starts, so at least he was OK starting. However, both Correia and Sanchez had some bad outings, though Correia appears to be starting to break out a little in his last two starts, pitching well overall, but having a key mistake or two cost him a good performance.

What's Good and What's Not

A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes. Thus what Correia has done so far in limited starts is startingly good, that's why he is now in the mix for the #5 starting position for the 2008 season, as Sabean had noted in one of his post-season talks, along with Sanchez, who previously was the favorite for that spot; now it's a competition.

If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher). That's how Lowry was able to pitch well last year, keeping his ERA low while still recovering from his strained oblique and being unable to strike out hitters as much as before, he had very few disaster starts until he had his arm problems and got bombed in September, he had a good ERA, in the high 3's until those starts.

July's Comments

Unfortunately, the starting rotation was Jeckyll and Hyde this month (Cain and Lincecum great, Correia and Sanchez horrible, Zito in the middle), costing the team any chance of a good month. We depend too much on our starting pitching to be able to withstand that.

On top of that, the bullpen has been giving up leads and blown saves a lot more in July, costing Lincecum two wins, for example. That obviously hurts the overall team win-loss results and is evidenced by all the call ups and downs for relievers, as ineffective ones are sent out and the Giants try out new ones. That is life, however, when you are re-building with young players, you just have to accept that.

Furthermore, the offense totally sank as well. I wonder if the trade deadline had anything to do with that. Both Winn and Rowand had poor July's but has been percolating lately, particularly Winn. Lewis despite his bunion, appeared to even do better after his bunion problem was released. Bowker, however, has really hit the skids and risk the Giants bringing up someone, anyone, from AAA to take some AB away from him.

Meanwhile, while Ivan Ochoa has brung things up a notch once he started getting regular play at SS, Burriss has continued to sputter offensively with his regular play at 2B. There had been talk about sending down Velez, but if Burriss continues this poor performance, Velez will probably start seeing regular play there instead. The good news on Burriss is that his downturn is totally tied to his drop in BABIP, while he has been doing very well in terms of contact (i.e. K%), not striking out very often, plus walking enough to keep his BB/K respectable, though it would be much better if he could double his walk rate.

I think we will see more of what we saw in July in August, as Cain and Lincecum continue to do well, and the others have uneven results. Sanchez really appears to have hit the wall and then some, he might get shut down soon if he continues to do as poorly as he has. Correia, however, appears to be coming around, so that will help. Zito as well, appears to be coming around as well, though he has had ups and downs all through his career as a Giant. At least he's having fun now, maybe the results will start to improve for him as he had his first 10 strikeout game with us in July plus he also did something he hasn't done since early in his career, and not so frequently over the past 5-6 seasons, which a three game streak where he struck out more than his IP and at least double his walks - last one in 2004 - but then he went and had three straight mediocre starts before his last start against the Padres.

Monday, July 07, 2008

Zelebrating Zito

Perhaps it is in the newspaper columnist credo or handbook to be negative. Or perhaps they are just biased against the Giants, as the Merc's columnists have appeared to be since the A's announced their move down south (nothing like public commercial butt kissing). Or maybe it is just the media's inclination towards the negative.

But it is not like being a fan means that you are not realistic or objective about things. Yes, Zito has been terrible up to now as a Giants. But that doesn't mean that we Giants fans couldn't enjoy what Zito has done over the past three games since he announced that he's back (plus his former high 80's velocity is back, reportedly).

One criticism I've seen is that the 88 MPH recorded at home over the weekend against LA was inflated, with an off-handed comment that it also recorded a D-ger "journeyman" reliever at 97 MPH, implying that there's something wrong with the radar gun in SF. The fact is that even journeyman pitchers can throw 97 MPH, particularly when that journeyman is a 6 foot, 6 inches and 230 pounds specimen. If the critic was interested in the Giants in any significant way this season (or even knowledgeable about baseball in general), he would have known that the Giants have their own pitcher, who used to easily top 100 MPH but couldn't make the team because he was too wild, walking too many (Erick Threets if that critic is reading) and that high 90's journeymen are dime a dozen because they could never harness that speed to effectively get batters out.

In addition, this was reported even before Zito returned home to SF. He was recorded at such relatively high velocity in the previous games on the road as well. So unless he is claiming the Giants conspired to change the radar at the parks away as well as at home, then his claims of a return of his velocity is accurate and true.

Another comment I've seen is that Zito has to duplicate his great effort against the D-gers "only about 11 or 12 more times" this season to make this a "non-terrible" season. Only someone who is trying to set up someone else for failure by setting unrealistic expectations to ensure failure would say that, because Zito's Saturday's 7 IP, 6 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeout effort is nothing like what Zito has regularly done in his career. At best, he does that maybe once, twice a season - since 2002 Zito has had 10+ strikeouts in only 1-2 games per season. The last (and only) time he even had over 2 games with 10+ strikeouts was his first full season in 2002, when he had 5 such games.

Zito does not need to do anything but pitch like he did for the A's just prior to joining the Giants. That will include games like Saturday when he is dominating the other team. It will include games where he is as clueless as he has been for most of the start of this season and the start of last season. Overall, though, there will be a lot of good pitching, with a high 3 ERA, if he simply reverts to past performance levels. To suggest that he needs to duplicate Saturday's outing roughly a dozen more times this season, when he's never done anything close to that before, is outrageous. He just has to pitch below 4 ERA for the rest of the reason to show that things are better, well, that and keeping his velocity up this high.

Positive Points

As reported in the media, this was his first 10+ strikeout game since 2005. What I thought was more interesting was the 3 games since Zito said he was back. So I went through his game log on the fabulous Baseball-Reference.com website and found these interesting facts about 3 game streaks he has had in recent (and not so recent) years:
  • In this 3 game streak, he went 18.2 IP, gave up 16 hits and 6 walks, 1 HR and struck out 20. His ERA was 3.38 and batting line against was .222/.291/.347/.638
  • The last time he had a 3 game streak where he struck out more than his innings pitched was from 6/7 to 6/17 2005. He went 17 IP, gave up 14 hits and 11 walks, 2 HR and struck out 20. His ERA was 5.29 and batting line against was .222/.338/.365/.703
  • The last time he had a 3 game streak where he struck out more than his innings pitched and struck out double what he walked was 9/12 to 9/22 2004. He went 18 IP, gave up 15 hits and 7 walks, 1 HR and struck out 21. His ERA was 3.00 and batting line against was .224/.293/.313/.606. Also of note was that he had two other 3 game streaks in 2004 where he struck out equal to or more than the innings pitched and struck out at least double what he walked: 4/29 to 5/11 and 6/3 to 6/15.
  • He had no 3 game streak where his strikeouts were more than IP in 2003.
  • In 2002, he had two such streaks, basically one after another, from 5/11 to 5/21 and from 5/21 to 6/1, bookended by 10+ strikeout games. Together that is his last 5 game streak where he struck out more than innings pitched.
  • In 2001, his first full season, he had a large number of them. He had a 6 game streak to start the season, a 3 game from 5/16 to 5/27, a 9 game from 6/22 to 8/4, a 3 game from 8/20-30, and a 5 game from 9/10 to 10/7.
Thus, the last time he pitched as well over a 3 game stretch was in 2004. That means that he wasn't good enough as a pitcher to dominate well enough over a three game stretch in 2005, 2006, and 2007. That shows how different this three game stretch in 2008 is, as it is something very different from any three game stretch that he has done over the past four seasons.

In addition, since 2002, he hasn't not had that many 3 game stretches, period, where he struck out more than innings pitched. Two in 2002 but zero in 2003, averaging out to one such three game stretch of strikeout excellence from 2002 to 2005, one such three game stretch of strikeout excellence and command of location (that is, strikeout more than double walks) every 2 years or so over the past 7 seasons.

So these are positives I take from the last three games. Yes, he needs to continue to pitch well to show that he is past his previous problems as a Giants pitcher. But he hasn't pitched this well over a three game stretch for 4 seasons now, and hasn't really done this that often in his career, since his first full season in the majors.

Could it be a fluke? Perhaps. But since it is something he did only when he was pitching better in general, it could also be a sign that he has finally turned things around. The velocity reported of 88 MPH is one sign. This three game stretch is another. Peripherals generally don't lie. These are all positives I see.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

2008 Giants: June PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of June 2008, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here. I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this).

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Basically, you want to see a pitcher's DOM% to be over 40% and ideally over 50%, and you want their DIS to be under 20% and ideally under 10%. For example, Johan Santana has a 76% DOM and 3% DIS in 2006 (2.77 ERA), whereas Orlando Hernandez had a 52% DOM and 28% DIS (4.66 ERA), and Adam Eaton had a 31% DOM and 31% DIS (5.12 ERA). See my explanation down below on methodology plus read the link, there's a nice chart there showing the combination of high DOM% and low DIS%, and particularly how low DIS% is so important.

Giants Starters' PQS for 2008 Season (as of June 30th, 2008)

Matt Cain - (61% DOM, 11% DIS; 11:2/18): 3, 0, 4, 0, 5, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 3

Kevin Correia - (57% DOM, 29% DIS; 4:2/7): 4, 4, 4, 1, 3, 1, 4 (did not count start where injured)

Tim "The Kid" Lincecum - (71% DOM, 0% DIS; 12:0/17): 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 5 (didn't count relief outing as start)

Pat Misch - (38% DOM, 38% DIS; 3:3/8): 4, 0, 4, 4, 2, 0, 2, 0 (counted relief after Zito since 6 IP)

Jonathan Sanchez - (53% DOM, 18% DIS; 9:3/17): 0, 5, 2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 5, 5

Barry Zito - ( 24% DOM, 47% DIS; 4:8/17): 1, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0 (Skip), 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 0, 1, 1, 0, 4, 2


Giants season overall - 51% DOM, 22% DIS out of 85 games counted (43:19/85)

Giants Month of April - 43% DOM, 30% DIS out of 30 games counted (13:9/30)

Giants Month of May - 61% DOM, 14% DIS out of 28 games counted (17:4/28)

Giants Month of June - 48% DOM, 22% DIS out of 27 games counted (13:6/27)

First, some procedural notes. I didn't count Lincecum's relief session as a start, nor did I count it as a start for Valdez, in the D-gers game. I also didn't count Correia's injury start where he only pitched a third of an inning. However, I did count Misch's first outing, in relief of Zito, as a start because he went 6 innings and I felt he deserved it.

The Giants starters had a much better June than they did in May, if you ignore Zito. But, alas, you cannot. Still, only the best pitchers have a DOM over 50% and DIS under 20%, and we have a rotation that was near that despite Zito's horrible month of June (and Misch's one lousy start). And have three pitchers clearly among the best in the majors in DOM in Lincecum, Cain, and now Sanchez.

Surprisingly, Jonathan Sanchez led the way with five dominating starts in 6 starts in June. Both Cain and Lincecum have off months for them, but still each had three dominating starts, which is still very good. Correia has been shaky in his return, but I would attribute that to rustiness for now. He at least had a DOM start his last time out in June. Zito had one of the worse months around, the only good thing can be said is that he was much better in his last two starts of the month than he was earlier in the month, particularly in terms of striking out batters. Now he needs to get his walks and hits down, particularly his walks.

If Correia can return to his early season form (and late 2007 season form), then the rotation can really be cooking with four pitchers not prone to DIS but capable of throwing out a DOM easily. So the potential is now there for the four of them to start clicking together and the Giants would regularly put together streaks where they win 6-8 out of 10. And if Zito's late month improvement continues, obviously more.

The main problems in June are obviously Zito's poor performance - 60% DOM, 5% DIS rest of regular rotation - and the bullpen's shakiness. The bullpen has seen both Chulk and Sadler sent down, and Romo and now Osirus Matos up, who was just brought up the other day in July. Romo has been the revelation in June that Hinshaw was in May, though obviously small sampling thus far. Both both have been striking out a storm, which is still a very good accomplishment in the majors. They now just have to continue doing it.

What's Good and What's Not

A DOM at or above the 40% mark is indicative of good pitching; above 50% is great; above 70% is elite. A low DIS is also indicative of good pitching, just look at the table in the link above showing DOM% and DIS% on the axes. Thus what Correia has done so far in limited starts is startingly good, that's why he is now in the mix for the #5 starting position for the 2008 season, as Sabean had noted in one of his post-season talks, along with Sanchez, who previously was the favorite for that spot; now it's a competition.

If you had to chose a high DOM% or a low DIS%, pitchers tend to have a lower ERA when you have a low DIS% vs. a high DOM% (obviously if you combine both, you have a much better chance of having an elite pitcher). That's how Lowry was able to pitch well last year, keeping his ERA low while still recovering from his strained oblique and being unable to strike out hitters as much as before, he had very few disaster starts until he had his arm problems and got bombed in September, he had a good ERA, in the high 3's until those starts.

June's Comments

The Giants continue to do well on the road while suffering at home in June. If anything, they have gone to extremes, winning series regularly on the road while losing series left and right at home. Still, they were 13-13 on the last day of June when Zito blew the game and we ended up 13-14 for the month.

The starting pitching is starting to dominate up and down the rotation. All the starters have had a dominating start in their last two starts. All starters have been doing better later than earlier in the month. Lincecum finally had a dry (for him) period where he had 4 starts out of 6 be not dominating. This is similar to last season's dry spell, except last year he had a bunch of DIS starts, leading to whispers of skipping a start, and this year it was just a bunch of neutral starts. Meanwhile Cain and Sanchez have been racking up great starts consecutively.

Zito, I am again cautiously optimistic, but look what that got me after I said that last month. Obviously, with all his wide ups and downs, I can only hope for the best, but anticipate the worse. He is the tipping point for our rotation, and if he can get back to where he was when he was with the A's just before joining the Giants, we could have a great rotation capable of sweeping teams regularly, but if he continues his down periods, pitching him in the rotation will be like Russian Roulette with more than one chamber filled with a bullet.

The ray of sunshine in the Zito camp, however, is that his velocity has returned to pre-Giants speed, about 88 MPH. The key to Zito's effectiveness in the past has been the separation in speed between his fastball and his breaking pitches, particularly his great curveball. This has shown up in his last two starts, when he was able to get a lot of strikeouts with his new fastball.

However, his nemesis continues to be his lack of control, relatively, as he walked 5 in his last start, while striking out 6, in 5 IP. However, his last two starts show this pitching line: 11.2 IP, 10 hits, 5 BB, 10 K, 1 HR. That would have been a very nice line to show on average for a two game stretch, however, he pitched great one game, horrible the next. The key thing again, is his uptick in strikeouts. That shows that he has the stuff to get batters to swing and miss. Now he needs to get control over his pitches so that he don't walk so many.

Other things to smile about are Hinshaw and Romo. They have come up and delivered in the bullpen. Hopefully they can continue to do so, as well as the rest of the bullpen. Yabu and Walker has had their ups and downs. And Wilson has given fans some heart palpitations but, really, if you look at the numbers, any pitcher will have a WHIP over 1.0, meaning he's going to give up a baserunner almost every time he is out there on the mound. The key thing is that he has saved a large percentage of the save opportunities he has been given, and that is good.

Offensively, inevitably, Rowand and Molina cooled off, but the rest of the lineup picked up some of the slack and they were nearly .500 for the month at 13-14. Durham and Aurilia has been a big part of that, plus Lewis and Bowker have been good contributors as well. Castillo has been hot and cold but overall an adequate producer at 3B. A start at 2B suggests the Giants might allow him to compete for starting 2B job for 2009. Unfortunately, Vizquel has been horrible hitting at SS. Emmanuel Burriss has been good enough at SS for defense and OBP, but horrible for SLG. And his speed has not translated into many runs or SB yet.

I still think that we can still dream about .500 sometime this season - afterall, we are 37-42 without Roberts in the lineup, and we were 13-14 in June, so we are not far off and certainly not as far off as people were crying about during the off-season - but that is too distant a dream. Still, the promise is clearly there, particularly after Sanchez started dominating.

After all, we haven't really fielded our full team at any point this season, someone who has been a good contributor has been on the DL at most times (or been horrible, like Roberts, Bocock, Zito, and now Vizquel). Of course, this might continue for the rest of the season and we will stay mired below .500. There is no guarantee in baseball.

But with signs of dominating life from the rotation, I feel that a good run of starts will happen sooner or later, where the Giants can run off a nice win streak and attain .500 ex-Roberts. Given Cain's surges in August in the past, and Lincecum's surge last July - he already has 3 starts with 10+ strikeouts before July, only one start last season (though he didn't pitch in April) - plus Sanchez's apparent breakthrough this season, I think the Giants can get a good run going at some point and challenge for the title before fading off (though that's only because the NL West is so weak this season, if it was last season, they would have no chance at all).

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Truez Giantz Fanz Zupport Zito

There are some who believe that you never boo your own players.

I am not one of them.

I will boo if I think the player was deserving in some way. But, ultimately, I try to think about what is best for my team, my Giants, and where the player fits within the team and his criticalness to the Giants success. Yeah, I will let a player get away with things if I think he is crucial to the team's success.


So a player's shelflife with the Giants will affect my behavior as well. I try to think beyond the moment and try to see the big picture regarding how my behavior affects the team. Because as much as people tend to forget, athletes are people too (though some don't act like it).


To Zito or Not to Zito


Which brings me to the Giants' fans new favorite punching bag, Barry Zito. People at AT&T Mays Field have taken to booing Zito after poor performances. Which unfortunately have been frequent lately. Which brings me to my post today.

Big Picture: True Giants Fans Don't Boo Zito

The big picture is that the Giants need Zito to do well. Yes, the contract is huge and we haven't gotten much good performances out of him yet. But it is not like Zito isn't trying or blaming others: unfortunately, this is the best he can do. For the moment. He is working hard to change. There are encouraging signs from his bullpen sessions but he needs to start doing it in a game that counts.

So as a true Giant's fan, what are your options here? The big picture is that you can boo and make Zito more uncomfortable, less likely to succeed, and give the Giants an $18M albatross that will make it harder for the Giants to be competitive for the next 5 seasons. Or you can cheer his successes and keep your boos to yourself when he is struggling, keeping your fingers crossed while wishing for the best.

The big picture is I see nothing to be gained from booing Zito, except making yourself (somehow) feel better. So you need to get over yourself. This is not about you. This is bigger than you, this is about the Giants and how they do in the future.

Many Reasons Why Not to Boo

If he were paid less or for less years or is a giant ass, then letting your frustrations out won't hurt the Giants as much long term. But his contract is barely over a season old and we have another 5 plus seasons to go, at around $20M per year after this season. That will hurt the team's competitiveness if the Giants were to do what some fans have suggested, which is release Zito or trade him away with a load of money, or if he continues to pitch even worse than a #5 starter. Look at how screwed up the Rockies have been with Hampton's contract, D-gers with Dreifort, or other teams stuck with a really huge contract.

Also, in spite of team talk, 2008 is all about rebuilding. So we are going to be losing anyway, the only question is whether it will be epic as many thought or moderate as I've thought. So why focus on negatives, if we were trying to win then I can at least understand why you would boo and take your frustrations out on Zito. I might be inclined to join on occassion too.

But we are not going to be battling for the division title, we are going to lose and, in fact, the more we lose, the better the draft pick in next year's draft. Not that we root for losses, but there is a silver lining if things don't turn out the way we would like them to be. Winn-Winn, as Randy Winn might say.

And I know some of the boos are actually for management. Then take your frustrations out on management, not Zito. He only signed the contract, it was management (ownership in my mind) that offered him that contract. Maybe derisively yell, "Saaa-beee-annn" or "Maaa-gowww-annn" at the start of every Zito start. But once the game starts, button your lip and let Zito pitch.

All I am Saying, Is Give Zito a Break

Because we, as Giants fans, need to give Zito a break this season and hope that Zito can break out of his funk and pitch like he can. People like to point to Zito's peripherals but he's been pitching like this for years now and been productive enough that we would be getting good value if he could just duplicate what he did his final years with the A's. It is the contract, it is the fans, who are messing with his mind.

Yes, ideally, Zito wouldn't let all this affect him. But he's human and it does. So the big picture is we need to back off of Zito and let him get his bearings this season. You've had your say enough this season with the boos. If you continue to boo, you will just guarantee that the contract is the big sinkhole that you think it is. Just give him a break for the rest of the season and see what he can do at home without negative comments. The Giants of the next five seasons need you to suck it up. Today.

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