Let Me Take You Down: MLB News Around the Bases

I am going to go through some recent news, mostly ex-Giants related.

Renteria Gets Respect From Reds:  $3M

World Series MVP hero Edgar Renteria has reported signed with the Reds for the 2011 season for $3M.  He famously opined that the Giants $1M contract offer was a "total disrespect".   I wish him well, except when facing the Giants, of course, and thank him once again for his amazing performance in the World Series.

Still, to get respect, one must earn it too.  I'm willing to overlook his $18M for two seasons of essentially one season's worth of poor, for the most part, ABs where he didn't even hit as well as Neifi Perez, because of his great World Series performance.  But $1M is about all I would be willing to bet on a replay.  In 2009, it was the "asteroid" in his elbow.  In 2010, there were the array of physical maladies that brought him down.  The odds don't look better in 2011.

And $3M is basically what Huff got last season.  He at least had a great 2008 and a poor 2009, so there was some good hope that he might end up somewhere in the middle or higher, because while his 2009 was poor, his batting peripherals were still good and his main problem was a bad BABIP.  Meanwhile, Renteria now has three bad consecutive seasons on his resume.  Playing in Cincy will help with the batting line, but I doubt that will matter if he's on the trainer's table most of the season.

Take care, thanks for the glory, but I'm OK with Edgar moving on at that price.  Now the Giants can look elsewhere with more intent for a backup middle infielder.  And I assume they will continue looking for somebody to sign for under $1M to be their backup depth at starting pitching in AAA. 

Kevin Frandsen Signs with San Diego

Frandsen seeks to pursue his dream in SD.  I once had dreams of him starting at 2B for us, but he wasn't very smart mouthing off to management and pouting when he was sent down.  He had nice stats in the minors but not that good.  The writing was on the wall, so I was happy he ended up with Boston, as I think he is buddies with Dustin Pedroia.

He didn't do much last season playing for two pennant contenders (Red Sox and Angels) nor got much of a chance.  Surprised Marlins didn't latch onto him, but perhaps their opinion of him isn't strong either.  But playing for SD, I can't root for him, sorry.  His support of Fred Lewis' homophobic rants didn't help either.

If he didn't screw up his chances in 2009, he could have been part of the group in 2010 that would have brought a World Championship to SF.  Instead, Pat Burrell came in and represented local Bay Area interests.  Life is funny how it works sometimes.

Alfredo Simon Arrested for Double Murder, Get Support from new Giant

That was a shocker to see, particularly since he played nicely for the Orioles in 2010 and looked ready to finally capitalize on the talents that led the Giants to get him in the first place.  And a double murder, no less.  Then I was shocked to see that new Giant Miguel Tejada is helping Simon out with getting legal representation and so forth. 

Blyleven in Hall of Fame - FINALLY - Alomar Makes it Too

Bert Blyleven is finally in the Hall of Fame:  FINALLY!!!  I thought he was deserving from the beginning and been commenting on this across the internet for a while.  When I was growing up, he had the best curveball around and not only did he strike out a lot of batters, he compiled great stats, great except for his Win-Loss, which apparently a lot of baseball writers though was the final arbiter of how good a pitcher was.  Where were these people when Blyleven was pitching, were they sticking their heads in the sand?  This - along with why in the hell did Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Rickey Henderson, etc. not get voted in unanimously in their first year - are reasons why I have not been happy with the Hall of Fame voting over the years.

The best solution I could think of was to count it against the writers when they don't vote someone in who was clearly deserving.  For example, they could lose their vote if they don't vote and the player gets, say, 95% of the votes.  But then that would cause a lot of CYA votes, so maybe it could be a three strikes type of system.  Another nuance is that some don't vote in the first year, so maybe they won't get a strike if a player is voted in but under, say, 85% of the votes.  Anyway, I can't think of a good system, these are just some of my thoughts that I can spit out now.

Roberto Alomar got in, and frankly, I don't know if he deserves it or not.  The only thing I can recall about him is the spitting incidence and the general feeling from the media that he's a really good overall player, i.e. his defense is great.  I won't begrudge his entry, there have been plenty of players voted in that were marginal for me to greatly care as long as there were those who thought he was pretty good.

Paapfly and I got into a discussion of Jeff Bagwell's Hall of Fame credentials, and what I realized was that he was a really good hitter who I didn't really know much about other than I knew he was good, just not THAT good.  He probably should get in at some point but with so few votes, he probably is going to waiting around like Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven. 

Looking at his career stats, I realized that part of the reason why I am disconnected from Alomar and Bagwell is that a number of their best seasons came in the mid-to-late 90's when I was not really following the game.  After the strike of 1994, particularly after McGwire's comments and the cancelling of the World Series, I pulled my own strike of the game and I probably didn't get really fully re-engaged with the team until 2001 when Bonds set the record.

Part of that was because I was having a life, wooing my wife, marrying, having kids, but a lot of that was due to that strike of 1994.  And I guess I was not the only one, the majors have not had a strike since and they had been apparently using juiced balls to boost offense (and interest) in the majors since that strike ended, according to one famous baseball analyst, Eric Walker, as outlined in his on-line essay analysis, Silly Ball (and where he outlines some of his logic for why steroids and other PEDs could not have been responsible for this significant boost in offense).  In any case, the offense has restored the industry to new heights of robustness.

Now, baseball can work on getting Pete Rose into the Hall of Fame.  Fine, ban him from baseball, ban him from baseball management, ban him from making Hall of Fame as a manager, but the Hall of Fame is a sham until baseball's career hit leader is in there.  He epitomized all that was good about baseball when he was a player:  love for the game, maximizing your talents, playing to win.  It has been long enough now, put him in.

Ex-Giants Galore

The Pirates dropped Joe Martinez, who the Giants traded to get Lopez for the bullpen, in order to sign ex-Giants Kevin Correia to a two year contract.  I was always hoping that Correia would get a chance with the Giants, he would have been a good back of rotation starter for us, as he often pitched pretty well too. 

I wonder why he left the Padres, his childhood team.  Were they not interested?  I can't see that to be true, they will need more pitching than ever after losing Garland and Correia, and they didn't get anyone ready to contribute in the A-Gon trade with Boston, and I wasn't aware of any young stud coming up, Latos was that guy. 

It could be that Correia needed to get away, his beloved younger brother leapt to his death last spring, and maybe being around home just reminds him too much about his younger brother, who he was probably more like a father to because of their tough family circumstance in their childhood (there was a sister in-between).  Good luck to him, I wish him well.

Other News

• The Giants re-signed Guillermo Moto to another minor league contract, as they had did last year.
• Waldis Joaquin was released on waivers by the Giants, and the White Sox claimed him, but he then somehow became a free agent and re-signed back with the Giants.
• Bengie Molina apparently was offered a backup position with the Cards, behind his brother.  That has got to be a comedown for him and a big blow to his pride.  He's probably still hoping a team would sign him to be a starter, but might sign with Cards when spring training beckons.
• Boof Bonser signed with the New York Mets.  Part of me was hoping the Giants would sign him to be one of our potential call-ups in case of injury or what not happens to one of our starters.  We do not have any depth at all for the major league rotation (though honestly, most teams don't, else the guy would have signed elsewhere and be in the majors, unless, of course, the team still controls him).
• In another Pirates-ex-Giants news, Brian Burres re-signs with Pittsburgh in a minor league deal which apparently gives him an out should an Asian team be interested in signing him.
• Eric Hacker, Tony Pena Jr, Dontrelle Willis, Stephen Holm, and, maybe Clay Timpner (doing this from memory) have found new teams after the Giants released them.
• Lastly, there was a nice interview of Brandon Belt by Mychal Urban for CSN's recent Hot Stove show.  The video should be in the link.  The delay between the two is a bit jarring, FYI, for some reason Belt got Urban's talking with a 1-2 second delay.  Still, it was nice to hear and see our #1 prospect.

Sabean-Bochy Post-Season Press Conference

CSN was kind enough to broadcast it on their website today.  I caught most of it (Thank you CSN!).  Baggarly has a nice rundown of the main points at his blog.

• Wow, tough love indeed, threatening Pablo with the minors if he don't get into shape.  They also noted that he could be on the bench since he can handle 3B, 1B, and C.  I still think that he'll be the starting 3B in 2011, but then again, Jerome Williams never figured out how to keep his weight off and never had success in the majors again.  Lost in all this is that Pablo in the second half of 2010 hit better than the average 3B, so his hitting is still there in some ways.  And as I've been noting everyone, personal travails (divorce, child custody, mother near-death) coincide with all his slumps in the 2010 season.  I believe he can still hit like he did in 2009, if he can avoid the huge personal problems that would make anybody's work performance be less than usual.  And he would not be the first person to eat a lot while depressed or hurting.  Still, it would be better for him to get his eatting habits in check, and I think that he will.  Lots of fat guys in baseball history have hit well and played defense well enough to play, the question is his longevity in the game, I think.
• Clearly Sabean couldn't commit to signing Huff, who knows if someone goes crazy and offer him a boatload of cash.  But I don't see anyone doing that.  I think the Thong thing will just turn off some GMs.  Others will see his 2009 season and wonder if 2010 was an aberration (though they might also see 2008 and wonder if 2009 is the aberration).  But if Baltimore was only willing to offer him 2 years at $16M three years ago, and in the current economic malaise we are in, I don't really see any team offering him more than 2 years at $6-7M per.  And that is something the Giants can match or get close enough (I think the Giants offer him 2 years at $12M like DeRosa and Sanchez) that Huff will sign for us.  We just have to wait the process out.
• Uribe is a bigger question to me.  While his OPS wasn't that great in 2010, he did hit a lot of homers while providing flexibility backup at three positions.  I don't really see the Giants wanting to go more than $6M for one season, particularly with Emmanuel Burris, Brandon Crawford, and Charlie Culberson potentially ready by 2012.  There could be teams willing to finally sign him for a multi-year contract for more money to be their starting SS.
• Renteria, not really covered here but in a prior blog post, might be a possible signing.  It sounds like he's willing to come back and be a backup player, and the Giants will explore that, Sabean said, because the free agent crop is not that great.  And who knows, maybe he's finally healthy and can play a full season if they don't find anyone else.  He could be the Huff signing for 2011.
• The Giants are discussing Burrell, but Burrell in an interview late in the season said that he would be willing to come back to the Giants in 2011 and be a bench player.  Of course, that was his role when he joined the Giants in 2010 and he eventually became the starter.
• Potential bench given these possibilities:  Whiteside, Ishikawa, DeRosa, Renteria, Burrell, Schierholtz.  That assumes, then, that Rowand is starting in CF with Ross in LF and Torres in RF (probably, given Torres speed).  However, that would mean holding 14 position players on the team during the season.  The Giants could consider that since all the starters could go deep in games, resulting in less use of the bullpen and thus less need for another arm.
• It was noted that should the Giants look for free agents, left-handers would be a priority (Carl Crawford was alluded to by a reporter).  Right now, only lefty starters are Huff (assuming he signs), Sandoval (assuming he wins war with weight and bat), and Torres.  Looks like Ishikawa and Schierholtz are not being considered for a starting position.  Baggarly also noted that therefore Jason Werth would not be pursued.
• Sabean noted something which he is known for "in a perfect world, I'd make changes that would allow for a more athletic lineup."  But he don't expect to find any.
• While not committing to offering arbitration to all eight arbitration eligible players, they are interested in bringing all of them back:  J. Sanchez (maybe long-term contract finally?), Torres, Ramirez, Casilla, Ross, Lopez, Fontenot (he's probably not back if Renteria is back), and Ray.  Given this preference, the Giants forecast that their budget will be over $100M for the first time, and that does not include what they might pay to sign Huff and/or Uribe.
• Sounds like the Giants will have most of their pitching back for 2011, mostly because they are already signed or are pre-arb:  Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner (probable order, Bochy likes R/L/R/L), Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Ramirez, Casilla.  Mota was not mentioned among the free agents the Giants are pursuing.  I'm also not sure where Ray would fit in unless they go with a 12 man pitching staff, but then that brings into question what their bench will be.
• From what I recall, someone mentioned asked about moving Zito or Rowand, and Sabean supported Zito, noting how valuable he was during the season by eatting up innings, but didn't go that far with Rowand.  There was a twitter rumor that the Phillies would be willing to take Rowand off the Giants hands if they paid most of his salary.  With two seasons left, the Giants might be willing to do that since they will have Burrell, DeRosa, and Schierholtz as backup OF and the bench is full.  This could be similar to the Livan situation where they paid off most of his salary, only for two seasons and about three times the total money.  But unless we get a nice prospect in return, I don't see the upside of that is.  Rowand could be on the bench instead while Burrell starts, I think there are a lot of mix and matching that Bochy can and will do if he could chose between Torres, Ross, Rowand, Burrell, Schierholtz and DeRosa.  Rowand is useful when he is hot, but if he's cold, then others can get starts.  I would bet that this is why Burrell offered to come back on the bench, he knew he could not necessarily come back if he were paid like a starter, because then what do the Giants do with Rowand, and he really wanted to return to the team (particularly if Huff returns).

There was also a Sabean interview on KNBR late in the afternoon, and he mentioned some of the prospects.  He noted that Brandon Belt is a possibility for coming up sometime in 2011, as he has done very well this season.  He also mentioned Zach Wheeler for the future, throwing out that they are not sure if he is a starter or reliever, which was shocking to me.  Normally don't pay that much bonus for a reliever but that's conventional wisdom, I suppose. 

He also mentioned what was announced the other day, that Dan Runzler will be converted to starting pitcher for 2011.  As El Lefty Malo has been noting at his website for a while, the Giants don't have any pitcher ready to take over if the worse case scenario happens and we lose one of our great starters.  Runzler could be one of the top ones to be promoted if he can successfully convert to starting.  I think another reason they are doing this is because he hasn't been able to stop walking guys, and sometimes teams would move the guy into starting to give him more practice in game conditions to improve on that. 

The Machine Unmasked and Exposed

I'll end with a big scoop that Brian Sabean gave on-air:  the Machine that Brian Wilson refers to (in various on-line videos of an interview to a leather fetish wearing man walking in the background) is the Giants left-fielder.  That presumably means Pat Burrell, because it certainly wasn't Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, or Cody Ross (though I suppose Aubrey Huff could have that body type) and he was the starting left-fielder when the season ended.  I'm not going to link to the video, but it is all over, on Twitter, on YouTube, probably other places too.

Your 2010 Giants are 2010 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS: After the Bliss

It is all still sinking in.  The glory of it.  The joy of it!

While the game was going, I was anxiously nervous, but not worried, as I've been for a while now.  I had gotten used to the magic that the Giants would somehow win 2 of 3, and that the losses along the way were just part of the process, just as the wins were too.  So the losses did not bother me much, we still had the rest of the series or had already won that series.  And like that tired marathon racer, the Giants fell across the line and won the race to the NL West title.

So as Lincecum dueled with Lee, like a good novel, like a good thriller movie, I was anxious as the drama built up, pitch by pitch, inning by inning, until the 7th inning began.  First, of course, for this season, this playoffs, Cody Ross singles to get on firstbase.  Second, Uribe singles for runners on firstbase and secondbase, first time in the game that either team had a runner in scoring position.

Huff's Beautifully Placed Bunt

Then Huff, oh my gosh, Huff Daddy Rally Thong, our big hitter and RBI during the season, surprises the WORLD by dropping the most beautiful bunt, he almost got a hit with that, if not for a great play by Lee, but the more important thing is he did the job, he got the runners to second and third.  It wasn't surprising to hear that it was his first sacrifice bunt in the season, but not only that, it was his first sacrifice bunt in his MLB CAREER EVER!  You give the best bunters in the game today 10 good pitches to make as good a bunt and they probably couldn't do it 10 times, it was not that easy to do.

The more surprising thing is, and I heard this on KNBR radio, in early September (recall person saying Sept. 1), Bochy pulls Huff aside, said that he's not sure he'll ever call for it, but since Huff might be batting down in the order against a LHP, might give him the call to do it.  In an interview after the clinching game, Huff said that even if Bochy didn't order the bunt, he would have done it anyway.  And that bunt was masterfully done.

That epitomizes the Aubrey Huff that Giants fans have fallen in love with this season.  They said that he's pretty bad on defense, and he works his thong off so that he wasn't half bad.  The way Burrell was coming out for Schierholtz for most of the season, that was suppose to be the plan for Huff and Ishikawa, only Huff played defense well enough that Bochy did not do that in every game played.  I do not doubt that he worked hard to be able to drop that bunt.

Connection with 1962 World Series

I doubt I was the only one thinking of this, but when he dropped that bunt, I immediately thought of how Felipe Alou failed to bunt in a similar situation in 1962's World Series, and how that taught him a lesson in being prepared for anything, of knowing the fundamentals.  Felipe has talked of this moment often and the story was reported again for this World Series.  I'm sure Huff knows the story as well, and maybe that gave him added motivation to learn to bunt well.  Still, I think he would have done the work anyway (just like he would have bunted anyway), he's just that type of player.

Anyway, when Huff was successful at the bunt, I immediately thought of the connection with 1962 and how it was like we went back in time to redo the moment and this time the batter was successful bunting instead of failing, and it seemed like something was going to happen.

Burrell would have made the story great, I thought, took out because he wasn't hitting and especially because he was striking out all the time.  Unfortunately, he could not deliver, though he battled Lee for so many pitches  that I thought he was going to get to lee, he struck out - again.  Then Edgar Renteria strode to the plate...

Renteria 3-Run Blast:  It is Gaaawwwn!

I'll never forget Dave Flemming's classic call on that homer.  The emotion in his voice makes me weepy now, hearing it again.  I was screaming my head off, fist pumping, giving off random yells for the next few minutes.  I couldn't believe it, the Giants led 3-0, and we only needed 9 more outs.

Renteria had apparently jokingly told other players (such as Torres) that he was going to hit one out before the game, so he proved prophetic nonetheless.  He said that Burrell's AB was critical because it allowed him to see a bunch of Lee's pitches and he decided to focus on Lee's cutter to swing at.  His swing was a thing of beauty, and the ball just looked so good coming off the bat too.  And he got enough of it that it went over the fence.

Timmy made me nervous with his 7th, but he calmed down (he admitted he was a bit amped by the homer), and shut the Rangers down the rest of the way in the 7th and 8th.  At only 106 pitches, he probably would normally be given the chance to close it down.  As some said, he earned that honor, but this is why I've been so supportive of Bochy during the playoffs, he played it to win, and to do that, you go all in with your closer, who is fresh and pretty much shut down lately.  People forget, too, that Lincecum is only human, and he and the other starters are going far beyond the IP he had done previously.  Some of them were running on fumes.

Pandamonium

Wilson, as he has in the latter part of the season, shut down the Rangers in order, none of the drama people are used to in his prior incarnation.  Somewhere, in the latter part of the season, it just clicked for him.  Wish I knew when the Beard started up, but he suddenly just started becoming The Machine, getting outs without a lot of the drama that giving up runners generates.  Nen-like, even.

I was shopping with my wife and daughter (she's going on a Girl Scout backpacking outing and need equipment), so I brought my portable radio so that I could listen while shopping, but it failed me in the Target store, missing the drama (luckily) but held in suspense, because Timmy had just gave up the homer and was in the process of walking Kinsler.

But as fate would have it, the next store was Costco, and as we stroke into the store, the game was being played on one of their big screen TVs, and the bottom of the 9th was starting, so I stayed and watched to the clinching strikeout of Nelson Cruz.  I gave out a yelp, among the people who were suddenly my friends, and hugged my daughter, who stayed and watched with me while my wife was away.

It was so great getting to see that joyous celebration and not just listen to it.  I wish Fox would have followed it live, it was neat that they repeated the scene, over and over again, from seemingly each of the cameras they had operating at the game, but after a while, I just really wanted to see the live celebration, but then they cut to a commercial and reality returned and I had to go shopping.

Giants Random Thoughts

I have been reveling in the joy that I'm experiencing now that my Giants are World Series Champions.  I've been reading articles and watching videos, and my reaction to the win was actually pretty understated.  I was so pumped by Renteria's homer, I was screaming and yelling for a while, but as the game wound down, the win seemed anti-climatic somehow.  But I would now be reading or watching, and something would hit me randomly, and I would get all weepy with joy.  I expect this to last a while.

This was a team effort.  That was clear by the new hero every night, and yet certain names would continually pop up:  Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross, Uribe, and now Renteria.   And, of course, the pitching staff epitomizes the team concept, each pitcher can only take care of what they can, then let another pitcher try to do the same, and win.  Having a Tim Lincecum is great (Cliff Lee), but how much better is it having Matt Cain (Colby Lewis), and then there is Jonathan Sanchez (CJ Wilson), and then the coup de grace, we also have Madison Bumgarner (no answer).  Then you have the bullpen, because no starter finishes all their games now, Cainer had 4 and people are amazed.  And THEN you have BWills, Fear the Beard, The Machine, and he shut down the opposition.

This team reminded me of the 1990 Reds, a team that didn't have any superstars, had a lot of players who had career years that you couldn't expect to do ever again.  Of course, we do have Timmy, 2-time Cy Young winner, but he had a down season (for him) in 2010.  This thought came to me during the end of the season, and it still seems like it is something that still fits, now that they won.

Off-Season:  Sign 'em Up!

Now comes the hard work of figuring out who stays and who goes, plus who wants to go.  Huff is probably the number one priority and I just don't see him not signing with the Giants.  He "only" got a 2-year, $16M contract in his last big contract, and he was three years younger.  I don't see how he doesn't sign a 2-year, $12M contract like Franchez and DeRosa did.

Number two is Cody Ross, and the Giants control him for one more year of arbitration, so it should be easy to get him on board.  I don't see him going to arb, the Giants are usually fair, and he is like Cinderella, with the pumpkin ride and dancing with royalty now, he will want to be here.  He made around $4.5M in the 2010 season and reports had him at $6M for arb in 2011.  But with his down year in 2010, I think somewhere in the $5M range is probably what he gets.  The team needs power and he can provide it, I see him being like the Jeff Kent acquisition, not that he's as good, but he has shown power before and should be able to deliver it for us in RF in 2011.

Number three is Pat Burrell.  He has already said that he's willing to come back as a bench player in 2011.  I don't see him changing his mind, though the Giants might have other plans for him eventually and start him again.  And if he's willing to be a bench player, that means he's only looking for $1-2M in salary.  He should be a slamdunk.

However, I'm not sure how this works in the outfield.  It actually works best if Burrell is on the bench, as the Giants will have Torres, Ross, Rowand, and Schierholtz battling for the starting spots.  Nate could be odd man out or maybe in a platoon with Rowand, perhaps.  Then there is 1B and if the Giants go with Ishikawa at 1B, then Huff would be in the OF for sure.  Lots of decisions to be made.

Shortstop is another area.  Renteria is certainly not getting his option picked up.  He might be good as a utility MI for $1-2M, but I doubt he would want to do that, he has his money, he has his business ventures, he'll probably want to retire up on top, and move on to the businesses he wants to do.  Uribe is probably going to be offered more by another team than the Giants are willing (able?) to pay.

The Giants could go with Brandon Crawford, as his D has gotten rave reviews, while his O hasn't, as a lineup with Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Ross, Burrell, Sandoval, SS is actually pretty good, particularly if Sandoval started hitting like Pandoval again.  That would save money as well as give a prospect a chance to start.  There is also Emmanuel Burriss as well, though most had him pegged as a 2B in the majors.

The pitching rotation, as I noted in a prior post, is set for years.  The bullpen is pretty much set for 2011, with the only probable change being Mota being let go as a free agent, as the Giants still have Chris Ray from the Molina trade and still control his contract, I think he's up for arb.

It was also announced that Dan Runzler will be tried at starting pitcher for 2011, so he's out of the bullpen now and will be the emergency starter in training in 2011, as the Giants traded away Pucetas and Martinez and don't really have anyone high in the system who might be able to step in, just in case of injury.

Re-Peat?  Three-Peat?  Quad-Peat?

So most of the Giants keys to the playoffs should be back next season, and there are a lot of situations that suggest improvement.  The Giants were winning at over a 2 of 3 pace after Posey took over, for half a season and into the playoffs.  He'll be starting all season in 2011. Sandoval should be back to normal now that his personal travails are over.  We'll have Torres for a full season too.  Probably Burrell too.  Bumgarner definitely, and a newly mature Jonathan Sanchez will be dealing for more of the season than he was in 2010, when he seemed up and down until September and DeRosa gave him that tip.  Lopez and Ramirez all season, plus Affeldt look like his old self by the end of the season, if he can approach his 2009 form, that would be a great addition.  I think Ray can be helpful in the setup situation as well.  And, of course, Cody Ross all season.  There is no reason right now to think that 2011 couldn't be a similar season.

Now that the Giants got their first World Series championship, now I want more.  I think we have the base core of players who can lead us to multiple trip to the big show during the 2010's, as I've been writing here for a while.  With our pitching, we should be able to seal the deal at least another time or maybe two.  The A's and their fans have been flaunting their championships for many years now, and we need three more to catch up, four to pass.  Of course, most of them happened 40 years ago and the last one 20 years ago, so they are like the Raiders, living on former glories.  Maybe they'll have better luck in San Jose.  In any case, I think we can come closer but that's a tall order to catch up and to pass.  Nonetheless:  Go Giants!

Your 2010 Giants are 2010 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!

Woo hoo!

Edgar Renteria MVP for his superlative work:  he has earned his $18.5M!  Maybe he'll be willing to come back for less ($1-2M) and be back-up MI, but I doubt it.  But then he could start in playoffs again after resting most of the season.

Q for Posey about a week ago:  "This can't happen every year, can it?"  Buster Posey:  "Why Not?"

Why not indeed!  As Timmy would say, "F' Yeah!"

ADDENDUM:  I added this video as I thought it was appropriate when the playoffs started, and it really seems appropriate now.  Again, I'll note the singer's passing resemblance for Tim Lincecum.

Your 2010 Giants are 2-0 in the World Series: Walking to Texas, Rangers

Wow, that was a nail-biter up until the fateful bottom of the 8th with two outs, then came the most improbable offensive sequence I've ever experienced (and I've experienced comebacks from the 70's to today).  To all those who complained about Sabean getting experienced veterans and Bochy playing experienced veterans:  this is why you get them, so that you don't have to go to your young inexperienced players with the game on the line like the Rangers did (had to?) with Derek Holland and Mark Lowe, and then watch the game get out of hand like that, so quickly (really, it took 12 balls mixed with one strike for Washington to figure out that Holland didn't have it?).

Matt Cain, wow, what a great gutsy game, what a great performance during the playoffs.  I have received or seen many statements/questions regarding Matt Cain over the years:

• Trade Matt Cain, he's a loser
• Trade Matt Cain for Alex Rios
• Trade Matt Cain for Prince Fielder
• We have Lincecum, why not trade Matt Cain
• Martin, when do we have enough pitchers to start trading them for hitters

I think most can now see why we kept Matt Cain.  With this performance he has joined a small group (now 5) of pitchers in MLB history who have pitched 20 or more innings during the playoffs and not given up an earned run (ExtraBaggs).  Among them are other Giants:  Christy Mathewson (Big 6) in 1905 World Series and Carl Hubbell (King Carl) in 1933 World Series.  It was also tweeted by Jeff Fletcher (and reported by Baggerly) that Cain is just one of four pitchers in the majors today with 200+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past four seasons.  The others are Dan Haren, CC Sabathia, and Roy Halladay.

Incredibly, he's only 26 YO and yet is the longest tenured Giants player, loves being a Giant (he never had a childhood team), his wife is from here, they have a home here, and we have him signed to 2012.  Hopefully we can get him signed for 2013-15 too, this off season, but probably not until we get to one year left.  But not that I'm worried that he would leave us, just more worried that he might price himself out of our budget.

And I made a mistake in wanting to start Matt Cain in game 1 and Lincecum in game 2, in order to give Lincecum another day of rest.  I see that now, clearly.  Just think of the scenarios, considering that Lincecum has a history of being too amped up in new pressure situations.  If he does well enough and the Giants defeat Lee, then great, but if Lincecum should lose to Lee - and there was a strong possibility of that given how good Lee had been previously - we would have steady, ice in veins Matt Cain starting in game 2 to tie up the series.   If it had been reversed as I had wanted, should Lee outduel Cain in game 1 and the Giants lose, then we have Lincecum up in game 2, and we would be unsure whether he'll be ready or if he'll be amped up (looking at his game 1 results, he was amped up).  Bochy did the right thing starting Lincecum first, then going with Cain.  Another in a long line of good decisions by Bochy that I've been trying to illuminate here.

Edgar Renteria sure came through tonight.  His homer gave Cain the lead the Giants would never relinquish.  His hit in the 8th made the game out of reach, a laugher.  His offense won the game for the Giants today, and his defense again was good.  He has found his fountain of youth here in the World Series, the playoffs really, and if this is it for him, he is going out with a big bang.  Should the Giants be fortunate enough to win the World Series, I would say that Edgar earned his $18M contract with what he has done in the playoffs.

And, as it apparently is in these playoffs, Co-Dy! again delivers, this time scoring two runs while getting on base three times.  And in this World Series, Uribe again delivers, a key single to put the Giants up 2-0, then a key walk (of all things) to drive in another run.  He's done enough to be the MVP so far, but Renteria probably is closest to that right now.  Really, as it has been all year, all playoffs, it is the team that is the MVP, each game had another player chip in something critical to win the game, whether a hit, walk, or great catch/play, or a great pitch.

Game 3:  Colby Lewis vs. Sanchez

Obviously, great position for the Giants, and that sets up Sanchez to have a great game.  Sanchez, in his first two starts early in the series, pitched two 5 PQS games, great DOM starts.  He obviously faltered in his third start, but that was a must win game for the Giants really (which again Bochy nailed it, and managed like it; must win because didn't want to get to elimination game in game 7 in Philly) and when he was amped (innings 1 and 3) he was horrible, but when he had calmed down (inning 2), he was fine, shut them down 1-2-3.  This game, being early and the Giants up 2-0, is not a must win, but probably needs to be managed like it is because if they lose, its 2-1 and Rangers back in it, but if they win, it's 3-0 and Giants can smell the champagne.

Still, as far as Sanchez is concerned, there will be minimal pressure, relatively, other than it is his first World Series and it will be in hostile environs.   He will probably be jittery in the first inning, but Posey will settle him down for the rest of his start.  He should be OK, as long as he don't feel like he HAS to win the game.

Meanwhile, Lewis is in the must win, of all must wins (see below on teams up 2-0 for why).  The thing is that he did well in a similar situation, at home, in game 6 vs. the Yankees.  Not must win, true, but like the Giants, if you lose, then you are back to 3-3 and need to fight for it in game 7.  So not a true must win, but pretty close.  He also pitched very well down the stretch, he had a great September after a so-so August.  He did not, however, pitch that well in his first two playoff starts; he was OK though, both were 3 PQS starts.  He was not as dominating at home as on the road, but he was still good, better than Sanchez.

But that's over a season, and now we have a Sanchez who has been dominating since late August vs. a Lewis who has been dominating since late August too.  Should be a great game, tough game (though game 1 should have been that, and game 2 was until bottom of 8th, and the Giants supposedly had no offense).  Have to give slight edge to Texas for being home team and for Lewis being better over the whole season, but basically I would say it is a coin-flip.

PQS Shows Giants Fading

However, a bad trend is that the Giants' starters have been fading in terms of performance since game 4 of the NLCS.  The first 7 playoff starts by the Giants were DOM starts (either 4 or 5 PQS), but since then, three have been DIS starts (0 or 1 PQS) and only one (Lincecum in game 5) was a DOM (Cain last night did not earn a DOM start, he did not strike out enough guys; though he would have earned one more point if he had given up one less walk).

And now in two games against Texas, we have had two non-DOM starts in SF, and now we have three games in hitter-happy Texas, one of the worse hitter-skewed parks in the majors, up there with Colorado.  Sanchez will have to step up big time to win there, but he has the stuff to do it, that is why he is starting there, he strikes out a lot, and the less balls in play, the better the results.

Giants Thoughts

The series is not over yet, not by a long shot.  Most teams up 2-0 do end up winning, but a good portion of them go on to lose too (The Hardball Times had a great article researching teams up 2-0 and what happened afterward).  In fact, most 2-0 teams that end up losing game 3, basically it is a whole new start to the series, for the most part, for the down team (down team 11-16 in series after winning third game, so it is still good for up team, just not like winning game 3).  For the up team to ensure winning the World Series, they pretty much need to win game 3 (hence why I said what I said above for Colby Lewis).

Though if the rumor I've seen is correct that the Rangers are not going to pitch Lee on short rest (that is, reportedly, he has refused to pitch on short rest), that means Hunter is pitching game 4, which should give us the advantage there and thus not as imperative to win game 3.

As long as Sanchez approaches this as a gimme start since we are up 2-0, I think he'll be OK.  If someone is quoting him these stats on 2-0 teams, he's probably going to be very amped up, and he might still be anyway, it is the World Series.  But given his prior playoff starts and his clincher over SD on last day, I would bet that he'll be OK eventually and the damage will be minimal, at worse.  He probably wouldn't have lasted only 2 IP in that last start if he didn't get on base and get his adrenaline going.  It will be fascinating to see how he handles things, remember, when he is on, he has no-hit double-digit K ability.

The good thing is that the Giants offense has put it in the heads of the Texas pitchers that they should ignore what they might have been told about their offense.  If you give up runners, the Giants will scratch and claw their way to score a run.  This is really nothing new, they were like that during the season too, either scoring a little or a lot, depending on how many of the guys were hot hitters.  The offense is clearly something to be worried about.

Plus, Texas' homepark favors RH batters, and Sanchez, Posey, Burrell, Ross, and Uribe are RHB.  Plus Aubrey Huff has hit well in their park before:

I	Split	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
	TEX-AmeriquestFd	150	132	37	4	6	23	3	0	15	11	.280	.353	.447	.800	.265

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/29/2010.

And if you'll notice, his BABIP there is low, lower than his career .293 BABIP, suggesting he might be due for better hitting there.  True, the ballpark hurts LH batter's batting average but not to such a large degree, only slightly.

Still, Lewis could deliver a gem and make it a very tough game to win.  But the Giants have seemed to specialize in winning these types of tough games during the season and now during the playoffs.  And particularly if they can get into the bullpen early by taking pitches against Lewis, it won't matter if Lewis pitches a great game if the bullpen blows it for them after he is taken out.

And the bullpen has to be shaken that the Giants have beaten them up like that, and so easily and so much.  That is probably where the Giants are able to pull out their wins the most during this year, when it becomes a battle of the bullpens.  And Washington did not catch on that it was critical in the 8th to bring in Perez before the Giants scored any more runs, something that Bochy would have done, knowing that the closer would have Friday to rest his arm, at minimum, so bullpen management is not a forte of his or his coaching staff (and clearly not sabers, who would know this saber-theory on closer usage when leverage is highest).

Lineup In Texas:  What and Who DH's?

The lineup will probably will be the same order for the most part but Huff will take his spot batting 3rd back and push everyone down one spot.  Sandoval might be a DH, Ishikawa too, with two RHP coming up next.  I would think they would go with Sandoval in game 3 to see how he does, and if he hits well, he'll get game 4, else Ishikawa would get game 4.  In any case, whoever is DH is probably batting 8th or 9th, unless the Giants instead start Sandoval at 1B and DH Huff instead.

I hope the Giants do that.  Huff has DH before and handled it well, he hit basically his career batting line.  Some people can't handle DH-ing, as Burrell showed.  The World Series is not a place to experiment and find out if Sandoval or Ishikawa can DH.  Use the guy who has shown that he can handle it well, use Huff as DH.

Breaking news is that Pablo is the DH.  Thinking more about it, probably no difference defense-wise between the two, but could be big difference offensively if Sandoval struggles with the role, as Burrell did.  Not all players take to DH-ing, some struggle with sitting around in-between innings and staying ready.

But with Lewis pitching, it might have been better to go with the defensive upgrade with Ishikawa at 1B and Huff at DH, now that I'm thinking more about it.  People don't think much of Ishikawa, but he's an OK hitter overall (just not good compared to other 1B; but his defense makes huge difference, I think) and think he would be OK starting.  We will see how this works out, but I think the better move, if you are using Sandoval, is to start him at 1B and Huff at DH.

For game 5, if there is one, I would still DH Huff and use Sandoval at 1B, even though it is a LHP Cliff Lee.  Ideally, probably would play Burrell at 1B and use Rowand in the OF, but Burrell has not played at 1B in a long time and undoubtedly is not that great defensively there either, while Sandoval was OK defensively playing there last season.  In any case, Huff should be DH the whole series, and see who sticks at 1B, just because he's familiar with and comfortable with DHing.  .

Other Thoughts

With the two wins, the Giants ensure that Texas cannot clinch in Texas, if they come back, then the series would return to SF.  The Giants could win in Texas, but if they return back here, they will be in MUST WIN situations for every game in SF.   Hopefully the Giants close it down in Texas and we don't have to return home for games.

That is the ideal situation, and would require them to win 2 of 3 in Texas.  Remember, the Giants have not lost any series, home or road, in the playoffs so far, and I think only twice in the past two months, since the end of August (Milwaukee and San Diego), out of 15 home and road series.  They have been tested every which way for two months now, taking on good pitchers and average, and are 29-14 since then (29-13 in the Red Thong era;  will Huff continue wearing this next season or will it have lost its mojo?).  That is basically a win two out of three streak, which is what they need to do in Texas.  Last road series they lost was on August 22nd, over two months ago.

Giants Mystery Solved? The Curious Case of Andres Torres and Maybe Juan Uribe

When the Giants added Andres Torres and Juan Uribe to the team at the start of the 2009 season, it got a huge collective yawn from the Giants fandom.  Torres was a career journeyman, heck, he didn't even play enough in the majors to be considered that, he was a career minor leaguer who flashed great speed and defense but not enough hitting to stick in the majors.  The quintessential AAAA player, like Calvin Murray or Jason Ellison.  Uribe was an all-glove, no-hit except that he could hit HRs, but not enough to have a decent OPS.  To most, they were battling to be the 25th man on the roster.

But since the 2009 season began, both Andres Torres and Juan Uribe has been arguably two of our most important hitters on our team.  How did that happen?  How did this transformation come to be?  Perhaps it is clear now, based on what I've read yesterday about Torres's development.

Teddyball Case Study

Fangraphs recently had a great article on Torres, how he would be the starting OF in the All-Star game if the players were selected by WAR (Wins Over Replacement:  a metric for measuring how valuable a player is to his team, covering hitting and defense).  But what was more interesting was a comment by someone regarding how Torres learned to hit, which provided a link to the story of how Torres worked with this expert on the internet on rotational hitting.

By the time line in that story, he happened to learn the "proper" way to hit just before joining the Giants.  That would explain why the Torres we have is nothing like the Torres that was clearly a AAAA hitter.  That would explain why he has been consistently hitting about the same from last season to this season, this is his new profile as a hitter, a plus hitter who can play great defense in the outfield.

An interesting thing is that what the expert taught Torres is basically Ted Williams's techniques for hitting.  How to swing the bat, waiting for your pitch, not swinging at all on balls out of the strike zone.  I was reading through this article, thinking, "gosh, that sounds just like what Ted Williams taught in his great book, the Science of Hitting" and lo and behold, the expert, Chris O'Leary, said that Williams was the first to describe it.  According to the expert, most major leaguers use this swing to be a productive hitter in the majors.  All the things that many hitting instructors teach - squish the bug, swinging linearly, slapping the ball - are not what major league hitters do.

A Mandatory Giants Way Chapter?

And that struck me:  what if the difference between MLB hitters and AAAA hitters is that they know this rotational method and the AAAA hitters don't.   What if a lot of our batters are not hitting correctly?  I know that is what hitting instructors are for, but maybe if it is a chapter in the Giants Way manual, then players would take it more seriously.

But, for now, what if Torres is passing along his tips on hitting to his Latino compadres?  So that got me thinking, could Torres have passed on some tips to Uribe that helped him out in 2009 and now 2010?   He is another hitter on the Giants who is hitting way better than he had before, could he have learned some of the tips that Torres got?  Possibly.

Et Tu Uribe?

Last season, Juan Uribe's batting ratios appeared to be about the same as usual for him, SO%, BB%, but he was a bit lucky on the extra-base hits and homers, and very lucky on his BABIP.  All signs that last season was just an outlier in his career, no reason to give him a huge raise and a starting position.  And that is what all the teams thought, so he decided to sign up with the Giants for another season.

This year, however, despite his BABIP falling more into his career range, he is still hitting well.  Why?  First and foremost, his walk rate is sky high, much higher than it has ever been in his career, 8.0% vs. prior high of 6.3% in 2005 and career 5.4% average.  In addition, he has reduced the number of strikeouts, though minimally and within range of his career, but still good at 17.0%, which is still 3rd best in his 10 season career. and best since 2005-2006.

He has also boosted his rate of homerun hitting to 21.2 AB/HR, which is as good as his great season in 2004, despite hitting more groundballs than flyballs and boosting his HR/FB ratio from the roughly 10% he did before to the 11.3% he currently has.  And a big area of reduction there is him hitting much less infield fly balls, which are pretty much automatic outs, and hitting more grounders that fall in for hits instead.  Plus that means that there are more flyballs going for HRs instead of outs, with his GB/FB and GO/AO much more tilted towards flyballs than before.

Is He For Real?

Is this real?  Looks good so far, but many a player have been lucky over a short season before.  However, he was lucky last year as well.  How long does he need to play before he is not so much lucky as just good?  I would say the rest of the season, though new saber techniques can determine faster based on how he bats, using the stats on Fangraphs, only I haven't learned how to do that yet.

He definitely needs to keep on walking more.  And it is not like he's getting more IBB, he has as much as he ever has, one for the season, and he typically get 0, 1, or 2.  So his bump up in walks is real in that it isn't artificially boosted by teams walking him more, but by him taking more walks.

And he has to continue to not strike out as much, as well as continuing to hit the ball hard and not make outs while hitting more homers.  One of the tenets that O'Leary was teaching to Torres was Ted Williams's idea of hitting the ball hard because hard-hit balls are harder for the defense to field, meaning you get more hits and for more power.  Torres certainly has taken that lesson to heart, he has been hitting for average, taking walks to boost his OBP, and hitting for power.  Uribe seems to be doing more of all that, though not enough to say for certain yet.

Still, last season and this season are his second and third best seasons as a hitter, playing in a park that is basically hitter neutral but does hurt HR power hitters normally (but not him so far), even though he played all of his career before in a clear hitter's park in Chicago, and particularly for getting extra homeruns.  I would have to assume that if each season were adjusted for a neutral park, his two seasons in SF are the two best seasons he has ever had in the majors, and still a far leap above what he did in the seasons leading up to him joining the Giants.

Uribe in 2011?

And if he continues to hit this well, he will probably get a multi-year (no more than 2 years with an option though) contract from the Giants to start at SS for 2011-2012, with Crawford hopefully ready for the majors in 2012-2013.  And Renteria almost assuredly is only playing two seasons for us, though the way he hit when he was healthy for us, he's probably going to get another big contract (just not as big as the one we gave) from someone else.  Probably something similar to what Mark DeRosa got if he continues hitting.

Your 2010 Giants are 10-8: Phooling the Phillies

Well, after the free fall many fans were going through with the Giants first encounter with any difficulties, it is not surprising that many fans were not that happy with the Giants taking two of three from the Cards behind two great pitching performances from Lincecum and Zito.  The Giants only scored 6 runs but won the series by only giving up 3 runs.  And, of course, 3 of those runs were given to the Giants, two were unearned and the third scored on a wild pitch.

Still, the Giants went mano-a-mano with the Cards, our three top pitchers against three of their best (they have a better rotation than us, their 5th starter, Jaime Garcia, had a 0.69 ERA when he faced us first, then Wainwright's 1.50 ERA, and finally Penny's 1.29 ERA), and we came up on top 2-1.  Sure, some runs were given to us, but that's just evening out the bad streak we had during the losing streak, where the balls were not falling in nor were calls coming our way (like Bowker's infield single that was ruled an out and neither he nor the 1B coach argued against the call).

Now the gauntlet continues the Giants face the Phillies.

Game 1:  Roy "Doc" Halladay vs. Jonathan Sanchez

How cool is it that we could be facing one of the best starters in the majors in Halladay with our #4 starter and still have a fair chance at winning the game?

However, the Giants most likely will lose this start, it is, after all, Halladay and as nice as Sanchez has done this season, Halladay has a 0.82 ERA and was among the top pitchers in the AL for years before moving to the NL this season.  Plus, stuck with a loser for years, this is his first taste being with a team expected to win their division and to go deep into the playoffs, so I expect him to be focused almost every game.  Still, Doc is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two career starts against the Giants (though they were in 2002 and 2004, when we still had a Barry Lamar Bonds in our lineup), with one start in SF in 2004, so there is that.

Game 2:  Jamie Moyer vs. Todd Wellemeyer

That works out nicely for Wellemeyer, as he avoids facing Halladay or Hamels.  Plus Moyer has a 5.00 ERA and age appears to finally be rearing its ugly head with Moyer, who is 47 years old for this season.  With two of the past three seasons with an ERA around 5, that appears to be his talent level now.

However, the Phillies are the #1 team in runs so far this season, and I do not expect Wellemeyer to suddenly figure things out against the best offense in the NL.  Plus, Moyer's peripherals are actually OK (11 K/4 BB in 18 IP with 19 hits), it is just that he has given up too many homers (3 in 3 starts) so the odds favor that he regress in this regard and that combined with an antsy Giants lineup ready to swing aggressively, and yet not have much power, will probably result in a loss.

Game 3:  Cole Hamels vs. Tim Lincecum

Though Hamels has had a tough season so far (5.11 ERA), he was still the Series MVP in 2008 and been a great pitcher for much of his career.  Luckily we have our two-time Cy Young winner going against him.  The Giants should win.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants look like they will lose this series.  It would be a tough first two games, and while The Kid has been great so far and Hamels has not, both has regression kicking in at some point, which could make their start a tough game to win as well, though you have to favor Lincecum based on the season thus far plus career results.

The Giants offense has been struggling lately and there should be a big lineup shakeup soon, particularly with Velez's frozen deer in the headlights performance at leadoff (see how bad the offense is when the leadoff guy isn't getting on base at all?  The same thing happened in previous seasons when we had Dave Roberts up there and, apparently too injured to perform at all).

There was talk about moving Schierholtz to the lead-off spot, but with Torres recent heating up, punctuated by his 3 hit game, Bochy at best would lead off with Torres and bat Schierholtz second.  However, I expect Schierholtz to still be down in the lineup, as Bochy (and other fans) seems to believe in Torres but he's basically been cold all season until his 3 hit night last night (though that is at least a modest 5 game hit streak, but really not that awesome except for the 3 hits, as the other one hit games, to me, is not that grand a hit streak), whereas Schierholtz has been doing it mostly once he got to start some, much like he did last season when he got to start regularly.

With a righty tonight, hopefully that puts DeRosa at 2B and Bowker in LF, Torres in CF, and Schierholtz in RF and a lineup of roughly Torres, Renteria, Sandoval, Huff, DeRosa, Molina, Schierholtz, Bowker (though I would probably prefer Torres, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Schierholtz, Molina, Bowker, Renteria; and there is the chance that Huff sits in favor of Ishikawa as Huff has not done well at all against Halladay during his career, which would change the lineup even more).

With two lefties after that, it is probably Torres, Renteria, Sandoval, Huff, DeRosa, Molina, Uribe/Schierholtz, Schierholtz/Downs, depending on whether Uribe is available or not (though I would probably prefer Torres, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Schierholtz, Molina, Uribe/Downs, Renteria).  Oddly, Schierholtz's unusual success against LHP will get his the starts when lefties are starting, in an odd platoon with Bowker in RF until the Giants decide that Bowker has had enough rope that he earned with his spring training performance.

Until we get a hitter or two producing regularly in the #1/#2 positions of the lineup, we are not going to be scoring that many runs.  And unfortunately, Renteria has hit a very cold streak once his shoulder bursitis started acting up again and none of the replacements of Rowand has been able to do anything at leadoff, and Torres had his three hits batting 8th yesterday.  Add to that we are facing a good team again, it looks like we'll be only scoring 6-9 runs this series but this time giving up more runs to the #1 scoring team in the NL.

It will be a tough series, with some chance of being swept, but with our series win against the Cards, we should end up 3-3 at home after this series, and that would be great against the two leading clubs in the NL, both very likely to make the playoffs in 2011.  Then we face D-Rox at home, and they have not been doing well at all, and if we can eke out a series win there, could end the homestand 5-4, which is pretty good against three tough teams.

I think we just need someone up top to heat up some, and it might take until Rowand is back in the lineup for that to happen.  He is first available to rejoin the team on May 2nd, which is next Sunday, the last game against Colorado at home before starting a road trip.

There is still grumblings by many fans to bring up Buster Posey, but as I've noted, he's not exacting burning up the PCL (though doing well).  They key is that we are still winning and still only one game behind the leader, the surprising San Diegans, though given how well they ended last season, I was afraid of what they might do if some of their prospects started producing this season.  As long as we are relatively close, there is no need to bring up anybody.  We need to keep them down in the minors, first to ensure that we have another season of control over them (and that should happen soon), and secondly, though not as importantly, we avoid them going super-two on his and get another year of arbitration on us.

However, this is not a concern of Giants management, as Sabean has noted in a recent interview that the major league club's needs, as well as the prospect's readiness, will outweigh any monetary or control concerns regarding when a prospect is brought up.  People have been worried about the budget, particularly in future years when Cain's big contract extension kicks in, but I believe this is where Neukom's promise to get the money necessary to implement good baseball decisions will come in, not in signing the big free agents, but in keeping our big free agents from leaving the team.

In other news, Freddy Sanchez just got into his first practice game and could be up to join the team finally within two weeks.  While Uribe has done well playing 2B in Sanchez's stead, I don't expect him to continue to hit well indefinitely.  His career numbers are bad enough that he should cool off at some point.  And it has already, as after a nice hot 5 game start, in the last 12 games, his batting line is .268/.311/.463/.775, which is still OK for a 2B, but not as gaudy as his overall .310/.373/.483/.856 would make people think they are getting with him in the lineup.

However, that is better than what Renteria has been doing recently (due to bursitis in his shoulder; if it's not one thing, it's another thing), so I expect to see Renteria sit more once Sanchez is back with Uribe starting, plus Sanchez will probably still not be 100%, so I expect to see Uribe in the lineup 1-4 times each week, taking starts away from Renteria and Sanchez, depending on the pitching matchups and how either are doing at the moment, and how Uribe is doing.  Shoot, Uribe could usurp Renteria's starting SS role if Renteria don't get better by the time of Sanchez's return in two weeks.

And if Bowker can heat up soon (well, really, now), DeRosa might get starts at 2B as well with Bowker starting in LF, though with the way Bowker is hitting now, I don't see how he isn't the guy to be sent down when Sanchez returns.  Heck, he might even get send down first when Rowand returns, as Downs already has 2 hits and bats righty, which is a missing ingredient on the team right now.

Your 2010 Giants: Big 6 Questions

This is my annual exercise on what the Giants big questions for the season are.

1. Is Panda Real or Not?

This is the critical question because he is the offensive linchpin to whatever offense the Giants will put up this season. I believe he is.

Even though he was not highly touted, he showed coming up the farm system that he had a great eye and the bat speed to make contact, as his strikeout rate was good. The big question was the lack of walks and his body. But he's much more athletic than he appears, as anyone who saw him score on either of those bang-bang plays at home plate in late 2008. And people forgot that he was young relative to any league he was in and inexperienced. He busted out in 2008 at age 21, and last year learned how to hit for HR power.

He continued to show his great ability to make good contact with the pitch in the majors that he showed in the minors (nobody has ever discussed this that I've seen, but I believe that his learning how to be ambidextrous, able to throw accurately with either arm, helped with his control of the bat), and that supports him continuing to do well.

In addition, I recently read that only three other hitters had a better batting average in their first full season in the past 40-50 years (don't remember period or where I read it but it was a long period). That's not really something you do by accident.

Plus, even if there is a drop off there, he started hitting for homers in June last season, meaning that there was two months of a low amount of homers, so as long as he hits for homers consistently in 2010, that should make up for any loss in batting average by boosting up his SLG.

Furthermore, he was making progress at the end of last season in terms of taking more walks. He also spoke with our new hitting coach, Bam Bam Meulens, about working to avoid pitches out of the strike zone because, even if he can hit that well for a hit, getting into a better pitch count could force the pitcher to throw a strike that he could hit even more authoritatively.

And along those lines, it was discovered over the off-season that he needed glasses. Now, he said in the interview about this, he can see the pitches clearly whereas before they were blurry. The ability of hitting the baseball improves with the ability to see the baseball. It was rumored that Ted Williams was far-sighted and that helped him recognize pitches earlier. Imagine that: Panda did as well as he did last year hampered by his vision but he is unimpaired this season.

Most projections have him regressing "to the mean". But the mean they are using are based on faulty data. First, it considers to some extent this stats before he figured out how to hit in the minors. Second, it includes stats before he figured out how to hit for homerun power. Third, he was hampered by his poor vision last season. I think he should not only match what he did, but he should be able to improve on it.

2. Can Lincecum Compete for a Third Straight Cy Young?

I say compete because there are so many factors into winning the award, but first he has to have the stats great enough to compete for it. I understand doubting it. Nobody had won a Cy Young in their first two seasons, so winning a third would be even more unprecedented. Plus, there is the article about Lincecum dealing with less top shelf velocity.

But in his last outing of the spring, Lincecum said that he's ready. His pitches were in the 93-95 MPH range. Baggarly quoted him, "Definitely. I felt like I had the right stuff.
The breaking balls, both of them, were good. Change-up was good. Fastballs feel like they're getting the life on it. I feel ready for the season."

The more important thing is that he is not experiencing any pain. The human body will eventually result in lessening functionality, and luckily, Lincecum has experience dealing with finding another edge against batters, due to all those doubts brought to his attention. That will help him find the way to do well and get in position to compete for another Cy Young.

And the Cy Young is not what is important, but rather that he performed well enough to be considered again. I think the Giants pitching rotation's performance will depend greatly on how well he does. Not that Zito and Sanchez don't have to take another step forward and duplicate their great late 2009 season surge for the whole 2010 season, or that Cain don't have to keep up his improvement from 2009 into 2010 (which will be hard because his FIP is much higher), but if Lincecum does have a poor season, I think that will be a domino fall that affects the other pitchers, pressuring them to do better.

3. Can Renteria Return to Prior Goodness?

Some may not consider this a key, and scoff, but since he is batting in the #2 position, he will need to do well there to set up the hitters in the middle for RBIs. And he was actually a plus hitter previously, with a good OPS period, and great for a SS.

The #2 hitter is key because an out here would result in: 1) no advancement of any base runners most times, 2) two outs facing the #3 hitter, wasting his AB's potential for scoring, and 3) even one out limits the potential, whether the first hitter got on or not. One study of lineup creation maximizing found that you would want your best hitter batting #2. If Renteria is hitting like he used to, one of better hitters would be batting there (only Sandoval beat that last season for the Giants).

This is also key because if he does poorly, then the Giants will have to play Uribe more at SS to get offense. And he's really not a good hitter, 2009 notwithstanding. Then SS would become a sinkhole offensively, another hole in the lineup, like it was in 2009.

Also, if Renteria is hitting, then we have good hitters 2, 3, 4, and 5, maybe 6 with Molina, creating a good mass of hitting ability to generate runs more regularly. Else, then we are looking at only 3, 4, and 5, realistically.

4. Can Jonathan Sanchez Be Consistently Good Over a Full Season?

This is important because one of the keys to last season's good standing was not just our top guys doing well, but our back of the rotation guys beating the asses off the other teams' rotations. Even though Lincecum and Cain pitched well in September and Zito actually kind of poorly, they had poor W/L records for the month while Zito won a lot of games. Penny too. That was because they pitched well enough to beat the back of rotation guys that the other teams threw at us.

Sanchez is our #4 starter this season, and as my PQS study showed, he can be very dominating a pitcher when he is on, as good as any front-line pitcher on any team. However, he's our #4 starter, so it could be lambs being brought out for slaughter pitting him against the lousy starters that other teams have in the back of their rotation.

My experience with fantasy baseball finds that most pitchers lineup to face their fellow rotation order buddies, as long as everyone is on a 5 man rotation. As our #4, he will get to face mainly #4's plus some #3 and #5, and a smattering of #1 or #2 performances when you have breakout performances. If he is pitching well all season long, he should be in the conversation for the Cy Young because he should be winning a lot of games, in the upper teens, which usually catches the eyes of the Cy Young voters. With 5 votes instead of 3 this season, he could be in the conversation with a strong season.

5. Can Rowand Return to Prior Performance Levels?

I was wrong with Rowand's possible performances the past two years, he has not hit anywhere near where I thought he might. He underperformed by a lot.

However, now that he's gotten himself into shape, he can help himself greatly, both offensively and defensively. He has been a hitting god this season. As we have seen the past two seasons, he can be totally on as a hitter, but once he tires or injures himself, then he's pretty bad. He reportedly has worked hard this offseason to improve his overall fitness and not have that second half lag that he had the past two seasons.

Meanwhile, reports are that with the weight loss, he is running more effortlessly in CF. That would improve his range a lot, meaning that he would get to a lot more balls in the OF, improving our OF defense overall, as he was a weak link last season. (Both DeRosa and Schierholtz have been plus OF defensively, by a large margin)

And we will need both types of improvement. His defense because we greatly rely on our pitching to beat other teams. His offense because he is going to be leading off for us again. His hot streak last season leading off helped the Giants go on a nice winning streak in the middle of the summer (that and Panda's HR emergence). Both at his prior goodness would be a great boon to our team, either at the reduced levels of the past two seasons, could sink us.

6. Can Huff Be Enuff at 1B and Cleanup?

It is all interlinked. If he is not good enough defensively, then it don't matter if he hits as well as he did before, they will have to play Ishikawa. If he is not good enough offensively, then they will have to play Ishikawa or worse be tempted to start Posey there. In any case, then Bochy could be tempted to bring back the Bengie Molina Clean-up Experience if Huff is out. That would not be good news for our offense, I think Molina did all he could there but he really hurt us there offensively due to his low OBP as well as his inability to run even averagely.

Giants Thoughts

I think the Giants will have enough good answers that they will be competitive in 2010. I think they can win 90+ wins, and with all the question marks facing our NL West competitors regarding key players in their plans (Manny and the Divorse, Street, Webb), we have as good a chance of winning the division as anybody else.

I expect both Posey and Bumgarner to come up in the early August timeframe. Posey will become our backup catcher and platoon at 1B with whoever is starting at 1B, Huff or Ishikawa, giving us a great bat off the bench and a potential DH if we get to the World Series. Bumgarner will be a reliever at minimum, starter if Wellemeyer isn't doing that well again (he didn't really do that well in 2008 either, his FIP was much higher).

I am hopeful that one or both of Bowker and Schierholtz will hit well enough to win a starting position in the outfield. I think Panda will take another leap forward this season and bring the Giants with him. I think the bullpen will make our starting rotation that might more airtight, and that will have a positive feedback loop into the starters relaxing more and pitching better. I think the defense will be enough to enable the pitching to be the best in the majors in 2010, topping what they did in 2009.

I think the Giants, once they get into the playoffs, are capable of getting to the World Series, and with Posey as a potential DH, would have a good chance of winning it, if they can survive the gauntlet that is the MLB playoffs, as it is structured against a better team winning a majority of the time. So the key will be having a pitching staff that is dominant in terms of PQS, which will result in more games for the Giants where there is a great pitching performance, giving their offense more chance to score and win a game.

In any case, I think that we will have a great season, one that we will long remember, for good or bad. I think we are on the cusp of a recurring playoff team that will do damage deep into the playoffs, and finally win that elusive World Series championship we all long for. This is just year One.

Go Giants!

Hobbling Along: 2010 Giants Injury Status

Thought I would run by some of the injury updates that have come up over the past week or so:

Freddy Sanchez probably not ready by Opening Day

Everyone was expecting this anyway, so not real big news, but just further admission of this fait accompli. Which I think is good anyway. Why rush Sanchez into uniform? We have Juan Uribe to start in his place right now, plus perhaps Frandsen could get some starts as well if he's on the bench too. DeRosa can play there if necessary as well.

Meanwhile, that opens up a spot on the bench for somebody who may be out of options. It could enable the Giants to keep Steve Johnson, their Rule 5 pick, on the 25 man for a couple of weeks to see how he does. It could also enable the Giants to hold onto a player who is out of options, like Ishikawa (though I would note that the way they have made a point to talk about him, he was going to be on the bench barring some huge lack of spring performance), Lewis, and Torres. Recent news (giantsrainman captured it well here at McCovey Chronicles) verified that Frandsen and Velez still have one option left. I think Velez is going to end up in Fresno for 2011, however, particularly if Ishikawa is OK playing LF, as they plan to do this spring (plus Frandsen can play LF if he is on the bench as well).

I think the sure bench players are Whiteside (no way Posey starts as backup, he needs the EXPERIENCE), Uribe, and Ishikawa, leaving two spots, three with Sanchez on DL and Uribe starting. For the two spots, I'm still thinking Frandsen and Lewis, though with DeRosa capable, they could keep Torres around instead of Frandsen. But he had a lucky year in 2009, I would rather see Frandsen up and maybe getting a few starts while Sanchez is out.

The extra spot then goes to someone who otherwise would have been sent down, but did well enough in spring to get some reward. Johnson would be first on the list, and his bar for achievement is lower because we lose him otherwise. This article also noted that Johnson is being looked at as a 5th starter, which makes sense to me because he's been a starter for much of his minor league career.

Neal HBP in the head

Neal has a bump but otherwise has no ill affects, laughing it off, and thus is cleared to continue preparations for the season. Schulman reported that he got hit last year too. He is the only position prospect, other than Posey, that I think has any hope of contributing to the major league club this season (I'm not counting Bowker, Burriss, or Frandsen, since they don't count as a rookie, which most people use as the cutoff for prospects).

Burris and his left foot toe

On his second extra-base hit the other day, he came up feeling pain in the toe (fractured fifth metatarsal) that he hurt last year. He took himself out of the game as a precaution. He is on crutches but his X-ray was clean, so that is good. MRI is next step, which happened earlier today and he is hoping that all he did was tear scar tissue, in which case he could resume playing next week.

I don't expect him to win a bench job, they used recovery of injury to send Frandsen down last year, so I expect the same for Burriss this year plus they probably want him to get acclimated again with SS, since Renteria's contract is up this year (though there is a team option if I remember right) and Sanchez is signed to 2011.

Good news on Ishikawa and his step-toe

Travis tore some ligaments in his left foot, falling down the stairs recently (he described as similar to "turf-toe") and had been working out with a walking boot. He just got out of the boot and says that he is feeling great. As I noted above, Bochy has been high on Ishikawa, as can be seen in this blog post by Haft, indicating that Ishikawa "has [a] strong chance of claiming a Major League job."

It just makes sense to keep Ishikawa around. First, he played great defense at 1B and hit well in AT&T. Second, they don't have any 1B ready to take over should anything happens to Huff, other than Ishikawa, they don't have much depth. They could play DeRosa or Sandoval there, but that would then weaken LF or 3B, though I suppose they could move DeRosa to 3B, Sandoval to 1B, then whoever to LF (Lewis, Bowker, Velez). It just seems like, as I read Ishikawa noting somewhere recently, he understands that the Giants got Huff to compete this season, and so he's preparing himself to support the team. Third, he's currently our best option for 2011, unless Neal or Pill can have a monster year in 2010 and take over 1B. Given the Giants preference for defense at 1B, Ishikawa is probably going to be around for at least this year.

Mark DeRosa, chopping on the bit

He had his left wrist surgically repair last season and has been slowly getting into shape, not wishing to cause any setback by rushing things. He had been hoping to start the first game on Wednesday, but is not concerned that it is not 100% yet, as it just gets tired and he will need to build it up, by taking enough swings every day. He is reportedly "close to full batting practice", which is not as good as actually playing but a step closer to that goal.

Baggarly noted, however, that it is not uncommon for players who undergo wrist surgery to require a full year before they feel no pain or inflammation, and he was operated just after the season ended. So we'll see if DeRosa can play at his recent levels of offensive production or if he'll have a down season.

Fans not the only one embarrassed by Renteria in 2009

Renteria was embarassed too. His surgery was the simplest of all the surgeries and he appears to be recovering fine. Baggarly noted, "His swing looked unfettered as he pounded a couple of BP fastballs over the left-field fence." Bochy noted, "That elbow feels so much better. It's a sense of relief, too, knowing he can let the bat go with no pain." Hopefully this means a return to the good hitting he did in prior years, which would be a great boon to the lineup, as it could use another 800+ OPS hitter, at his high end, or even a mid to high 700 OPS hitter, which he was in other seasons.

Giants Thoughts

Nothing really to worry about above, though perhaps DeRosa. But if it is just fatigue, then the Giants can bring in somebody for him late in the game, that should not affect his production otherwise. And good news generally for all the players.

Plus, Sanchez on the DL allows the Giants to take an extended look at someone during the season, particularly Steve Johnson, the Rule 5 pick. That would also allow the Giants to justify returning Bumgarner to the minors and AAA, where he can pitch for a couple of months and either force his way onto the roster or perfect some more pitches, because if his velocity is down, he is not forcing his way onto the roster and will need those other pitches. That would allow the Giants to carry both Wellemeyer and Johnson, to take a look at both, until dropping one when Sanchez comes off the DL.

Sanchez being out also allows the Giants to take a closer look at Frandsen and other 2B options during the spring. They need to see these players in as many game situations as they can to figure out who best to keep and who to cut. Particularly if there are so many players who still have an option available, like Frandsen and Velez.

To Rent, or To Renteria, That is the Question

Clearly, the signing of Edgar Renteria has not worked out for the Giants. $19M for 2 years for .254/.311/.318/.629 with poor defense. Many have been fuming about the deal and rightfully so for what we have gotten.

Context is Everything

The facts are these, however:

• Renteria came off a season where he hit .270/.317/.382/.699 at Detroit, but hit .296/.343/.469/.812 in the second half of the season. He had hit .332/.390/.470/.860 the season before in Atlanta, .293/.361/.436/.797 the season before that, and he hit .336/.387/.477/.864 on the road in 2007, .287/.363/.460/.823 the season before that. These all suggest he just had a bad first half of 2008 and would hit somewhere in the mid to high 700 OPS, perhaps higher if he got things going. He would be 33 for the 2009 season.
• Orlando Cabrera was the option that most note as an example of who the Giants should have signed instead. He signed for $4M in the middle of spring training. His two previous seasons he hit .282/.335/.404/.738, .301/.345/.397/.742, and .281/.334/.371/.705 in 2006, 2007 and 2008. And his career numbers right now is .275/.323/.398/.721. That's the reason he was paid so much less, he isn't the hitter that Renteria has been, either career or in the recent prior two seasons. Plus he is a year older than Renteria.
• Rafael Furcal was another option. He signed before Renteria for 3 years at $30M plus team option year. His career numbers are about what Renteria has had and he's only 31 for this season. However, he had been bothered by injuries in 2007 and 2008. And he hit pretty poorly in 2007 when he played most of the season, though he hit great in limited but extended play (36 games, 143 AB) in 2008.

Now that is all offensive numbers. Defensively, UZR has Renteria as been slightly below average, about 2 runs below average. Cabrera has been all over the place, having some great defensive years and being very slightly above average, but the vast majority of his seasons have been barely above average, or about 2 runs above average. That is about 4 runs better than Renteria, but Cabrera has been about 10 runs worse than average offensively that if Renteria batted like he could in recent years, he would be better than Cabrera overall, defense included, by the difference of their salaries, based on what Fangraphs calculated for runs over replacement. Both Renteria and Cabrera appear to be equal deals in terms of what their prior performances suggest they would provide to their teams.

Furcal, however, was pretty bad on defense, about 10 runs below average. And his offense has been about as good as Renteria's. So he was clearly a worse deal than Renteria's, less runs overall while getting more dollars and more years.

So Renteria's deal, viewed in the line of pre-season facts, at least was equal to the deal that Cabrera got, and appeared better than what Furcal got. It wasn't a steal, but based on past performances, it appeared fair at least. One of Fangraph's writers thought so, writing "For San Francisco, this isn't a bad deal..."

Reality, However, Can be a Bitch

However, it has not worked out as it appeared it might before the season began. Furcal's having his best fielding season ever, even for his younger years, but having one of his worse hitting years. Still, with good defense, Fangraphs have him generating $8.7M of value thus far, so he looks like he will earn his salary, based on Fangraphs methodology. Cabrera is having his worse defensive year ever, but his offense is one of his better ones. He has earned $3.2M according to Fangraphs, and look to earn his salary as well.

Not so good for the Giants, not by a long shot. Renteria has had a bad year both offensively and defensively - apparently he has an elbow spur, which is similar to what Dave Roberts had his first season with the Giants, and which he needed an operation on - and is actually costing money, so he has been a total loss. It is his worse season ever, but $9.5M is $2M less than the average of what Renteria had earned since 2002, $3M less than his prior three seasons, and is $500K less than what he had earned the prior five seasons. He looked like a good bet to earn what he'll be paid, even given some decline, over the next two seasons, but he is a bust signing.

However, clearly, that bone spur on Renteria's elbow greatly affects him. It affected Roberts so much that he could barely hit with it, but was back to normal once it was operated on and he returned to the lineup later in the season (his first one). I'm not sure why the Giants just don't operate on Renteria, which would shut him down for the season, as they have Uribe in reserve, and while he's not as good as Renteria in recent years, he should be better than Renteria this year.

Heck, between Uribe and Frandsen, the Giants should be able to cobble together enough offense and defense to match the suckiness that has been Renteria's season. I would never wish an injury on anyone, but Renteria sitting on the DL now wouldn't be the worse thing in the world right now for the Giants. Renteria's "Hot" streak is .273/.351/.364/.715 since July 26th, but his cold streak is .193/.256/.229/.484 since July 4th (I had explained my Hot/Cold streak in a prior post: basically, the players hottest and coldest streak I could find for him currently, where both are relative to each other, i.e. both could be good, both could be bad, but one is hotter than the other).

Uribe apparently has hamstring problems right now, which would make Frandsen the starter at SS (but could cost Aurilia, who just got off the DL, with Bowker going down, DFAed), based on who we have in the minors right now. Frandsen's MLEs and his career hitting in the majors suggest that he should easily beat Renteria's .254/.311/.318/.629 abomination this season and the puny 2 homers Edgar has hit so far, easily. That Frandsen would provide some average defense as well would be a bonus.