The Giants came out of a tough series with the D-backs with one win out of three, with the distinct possibility of getting swept out of first place, before they scored 4 runs in the game and put that thought out of mind, and obliterated it with another 4 run inning to take 8-0 lead. Vogelsong not only stopped a losing streak again (7-1 after Giants losses), but had his first DOM start in a while, which is good too.
So any momentum and boosted confidence they might have gotten from beating the Giants two aces dissipated into the SF Bay mist, as it sinks into their head that they were shut down totally by the Giants #5 starter. So now they have to view themselves as lucky that they beat the two aces, instead of feeling, as some said, like they had done their job. Winning two of three on the road is good, but each loss to the Giants is a two game difference in the standings. They really needed to win that last game and achieved the sweep, though it will help that they are headed home now for a nice home stand against losing teams.
Bring on the Phillies!
Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Friday, October 22, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 3-2 in the NLCS: Need to Split
We knew that it wouldn't be easy. These are the two-straight NLCS champion Phillies looking to make history by winning a third straight. Although Halladay strained his groin in the second inning and did not have his sinker (KNBR this morning), he's a great pitcher so it is not like it would be easy in any case. And, as I noted in my post, how often can the Giants score 4-5 runs off Halladay? He's a great pitcher, he'll eventually figure it out against an offensively challenged team.
Some headlines state that Halladay "outdueled" Lincecum, but really, Lincecum outdueled Halladay, it is just that Lincecum's defense let him down and cost him the game. If Sandoval's foot had found 3B (a ballplayer said that was a tough play, to be fair) or Huff didn't muff that grounder, the Phillies don't score 3 runs that inning, probably either 0 or 1 at most. Or even Lincecum hitting Ruiz with 1-2 count? That leaves the game either tied 2-2 or Giants win 2-1. And what was with that call anyway, Ruiz didn't even try to get out of the pitch's path, according to the radio reports.
Bochy has already announced that this is not necessarily the last we have seen of Lincecum in this series. All hands are on deck (another reason I like Bochy now for leading these Giants), something he mentioned yesterday when saying that all the relievers would be available for yesterday's game. I assume Bumgarner might see some LOOGY action at some point himself.
FYI, the game time will depend on the results of the Yankees-Rangers game tonight. If the Yankees win, it would be 1PM, as the Yankees would still be alive and get the night game slot. If the Rangers win and advance to the World Series, it would be 5PM because, well, they have no other game to play in the timeslot.
Game 6: Oswalt vs. Sanchez
Same matchup as Game 2. Nothing much more to note, other than Oswalt had to pitch on Wednesday and was raked, and while they say that this will not affect him in this start, you have to think that this affected him in some way. And, as I noted, the hitters are starting to wake up, Torres and Franchez had 2 hits yesterday, Co-Dy! had another hit, Sandoval had a hit. I think it should be another good battle, but would note that Sanchez stepped up when the Giants needed him to and delivered a great start in the last start against San Diego, so my fingers are crossed for that to happen.
The Giants are still in great shape, they are up 3-2, and they only need to win one of the next two on the road. But as one reporter noted, the Giants faced such a situation twice before - St. Lou and Anaheim - and it did not end well for them those two times. Besides the fact that it was a totally different set of players each time and thus has no connection other than the team name on the front, a sample of two is not exactly a statistically significant sample. Else Willie Mays would never had his HoF career after going 0 for like 20 to start his career.
This is not much different from what they have been doing for the past almost four months, and particularly since September started. Just like how Halladay reversed things for the Phillies and winning his matchup this time, Sanchez could do the same for the Giants this time against Oswalt. And as noted, Oswalt was very hittable in his relief appearance, after the Giants bats had awoken, so this game will be very interesting to see if that was an aberration or a view of things to come.
Go Giants!
Some headlines state that Halladay "outdueled" Lincecum, but really, Lincecum outdueled Halladay, it is just that Lincecum's defense let him down and cost him the game. If Sandoval's foot had found 3B (a ballplayer said that was a tough play, to be fair) or Huff didn't muff that grounder, the Phillies don't score 3 runs that inning, probably either 0 or 1 at most. Or even Lincecum hitting Ruiz with 1-2 count? That leaves the game either tied 2-2 or Giants win 2-1. And what was with that call anyway, Ruiz didn't even try to get out of the pitch's path, according to the radio reports.
Bochy has already announced that this is not necessarily the last we have seen of Lincecum in this series. All hands are on deck (another reason I like Bochy now for leading these Giants), something he mentioned yesterday when saying that all the relievers would be available for yesterday's game. I assume Bumgarner might see some LOOGY action at some point himself.
FYI, the game time will depend on the results of the Yankees-Rangers game tonight. If the Yankees win, it would be 1PM, as the Yankees would still be alive and get the night game slot. If the Rangers win and advance to the World Series, it would be 5PM because, well, they have no other game to play in the timeslot.
Game 6: Oswalt vs. Sanchez
Same matchup as Game 2. Nothing much more to note, other than Oswalt had to pitch on Wednesday and was raked, and while they say that this will not affect him in this start, you have to think that this affected him in some way. And, as I noted, the hitters are starting to wake up, Torres and Franchez had 2 hits yesterday, Co-Dy! had another hit, Sandoval had a hit. I think it should be another good battle, but would note that Sanchez stepped up when the Giants needed him to and delivered a great start in the last start against San Diego, so my fingers are crossed for that to happen.
The Giants are still in great shape, they are up 3-2, and they only need to win one of the next two on the road. But as one reporter noted, the Giants faced such a situation twice before - St. Lou and Anaheim - and it did not end well for them those two times. Besides the fact that it was a totally different set of players each time and thus has no connection other than the team name on the front, a sample of two is not exactly a statistically significant sample. Else Willie Mays would never had his HoF career after going 0 for like 20 to start his career.
This is not much different from what they have been doing for the past almost four months, and particularly since September started. Just like how Halladay reversed things for the Phillies and winning his matchup this time, Sanchez could do the same for the Giants this time against Oswalt. And as noted, Oswalt was very hittable in his relief appearance, after the Giants bats had awoken, so this game will be very interesting to see if that was an aberration or a view of things to come.
Go Giants!
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 3-1 in NLCS: Just One More!
What can I say? What a great season so far, and it looks like it'll be continuing on for a while longer, if the fates allow.
Here are some great Twitter tidbits from Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherAOL) that I wanted to share before they disappear into the Twit-ether:
Game 5: Doc Halladay vs. Lincecum
Don't have much to add to what I wrote about before.
Will be interesting how Halladay reacts to this start, which arguably is the most important ever in his career/life. Being the vet he is, his no-hitter start is not a surprise other than it was a no-hitter, which are never predictable. There was really no pressure, if you lose it is not great, but it's not the end of the world either, so you can be more relaxed about the game. Similarly, there was not as much pressure in his second start, against the Giants, it being the first game of the series too.
However, obviously, this being the second round and with the victor heading to the World Series, there was definitely more pressure than he experienced in his first playoff start. And he did not have a good game, though those 4 ER he gave up was the least he has ever given up in a start against the Giants (5 ER in his prior 3 starts). And overall, if not for the homers he gave up to Ross, he pretty much dominated the Giants, he was not that far off (3 PQS but remove one HR and it would be a 5 PQS start).
So how will he react in this, his first do-or-die start in the playoffs? Will he rise to the occasion? Or do the Giants just hit in a way that gives Halladay fits?
I think he will have trouble. Ross is in a zone where he can hit any pitch for a hit. He says that he is going to be able to combat him with some new tricks up his sleeve. But now there is Posey, Huff, Sandoval, and maybe Torres to contend with too.
The four of them contributed big runs that helped the Giants win last night. Will Halladay be able to handle all of them? Particularly Sandoval, who was hitting line drives last night, and we know that he's capable of launching normally good "pitcher's pitches" into the stands. Then there are the players who have hit Halladay before, like Burrell.
Lincecum sounds like he's ready to rumble. Nice article in SJ Mercury on that. With no real pressure other than wanting the sweet satisfaction of putting the Giants into the World Series and the greater satisfaction of getting to celebrate with the Giants fans in the stands, Lincecum should be loose and ready to pitch the game of his life.
Giants vs. Halladay
Bill James Daily Match-Up Stats for today:
Burrell: 10-24, BB, 8 K
Fontenot: 1-9, K
Huff: 19-72, 5 BB, 13 K (wow, no HR!)
Posey: 2-6, 4 K
Renteria: 4-11, 2 K
Ross: 7-22, 4 HR, 2 K (Ownage!)
Rowand: 1-3
Franchez: 1-11, 3 K (reverse ownage)
Sandoval: 2-4
Schierholtz: 0-3
Torres: 3-15, 3 K (could be due!)
Uribe: 6-24, 6 K
Giants Thoughts
The Giants, obviously, is in great shape to get into the World Series. They just need to win one game in the next three, albeit three against the mighty Phillies, twice-in-row NLCS champs, and facing Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels, three of the best pitchers in the majors. Luckily, we have Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain, likewise three of the best pitchers in the majors, going against them, and our offense is waking up, which would be just in time too, the pitching can't carry the team forever, it is time for the offense to contribute too. And they did yesterday.
The hitters have to show up again today. Luckily, the Giants have hit Halladay well this season, in two games; that's also unlucky, because he's a great pitcher and you have to doubt that a team, particularly an offensively challenged team like the Giants, could score 4-5 runs off him and beat him a third time in the season. Still, at almost any point this season, you would have to doubt that the Giants would reach 3-1 in the NLCS, so sometimes dreams do come true.
Go Giants! Finish off the Phillies at home and celebrate with the great Giants fans!
Here are some great Twitter tidbits from Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherAOL) that I wanted to share before they disappear into the Twit-ether:
- In MLB postseason history, teams leading 3-1 have .514 win pct in Game 5 (37-35). They have won the series 84.7 pct (61-11).
- Actually, that previous stat doesn't include the Yankees winning 5 yesterday, so the leading teams only 37-36 in Game 5.
- Teams up 3-1 at home in Game 5 are 17-17, on the road 20-19. (To win series, 29-5 and 32-6).
Game 5: Doc Halladay vs. Lincecum
Don't have much to add to what I wrote about before.
Will be interesting how Halladay reacts to this start, which arguably is the most important ever in his career/life. Being the vet he is, his no-hitter start is not a surprise other than it was a no-hitter, which are never predictable. There was really no pressure, if you lose it is not great, but it's not the end of the world either, so you can be more relaxed about the game. Similarly, there was not as much pressure in his second start, against the Giants, it being the first game of the series too.
However, obviously, this being the second round and with the victor heading to the World Series, there was definitely more pressure than he experienced in his first playoff start. And he did not have a good game, though those 4 ER he gave up was the least he has ever given up in a start against the Giants (5 ER in his prior 3 starts). And overall, if not for the homers he gave up to Ross, he pretty much dominated the Giants, he was not that far off (3 PQS but remove one HR and it would be a 5 PQS start).
So how will he react in this, his first do-or-die start in the playoffs? Will he rise to the occasion? Or do the Giants just hit in a way that gives Halladay fits?
I think he will have trouble. Ross is in a zone where he can hit any pitch for a hit. He says that he is going to be able to combat him with some new tricks up his sleeve. But now there is Posey, Huff, Sandoval, and maybe Torres to contend with too.
The four of them contributed big runs that helped the Giants win last night. Will Halladay be able to handle all of them? Particularly Sandoval, who was hitting line drives last night, and we know that he's capable of launching normally good "pitcher's pitches" into the stands. Then there are the players who have hit Halladay before, like Burrell.
Lincecum sounds like he's ready to rumble. Nice article in SJ Mercury on that. With no real pressure other than wanting the sweet satisfaction of putting the Giants into the World Series and the greater satisfaction of getting to celebrate with the Giants fans in the stands, Lincecum should be loose and ready to pitch the game of his life.
Giants vs. Halladay
Bill James Daily Match-Up Stats for today:
Burrell: 10-24, BB, 8 K
Fontenot: 1-9, K
Huff: 19-72, 5 BB, 13 K (wow, no HR!)
Posey: 2-6, 4 K
Renteria: 4-11, 2 K
Ross: 7-22, 4 HR, 2 K (Ownage!)
Rowand: 1-3
Franchez: 1-11, 3 K (reverse ownage)
Sandoval: 2-4
Schierholtz: 0-3
Torres: 3-15, 3 K (could be due!)
Uribe: 6-24, 6 K
Giants Thoughts
The Giants, obviously, is in great shape to get into the World Series. They just need to win one game in the next three, albeit three against the mighty Phillies, twice-in-row NLCS champs, and facing Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels, three of the best pitchers in the majors. Luckily, we have Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain, likewise three of the best pitchers in the majors, going against them, and our offense is waking up, which would be just in time too, the pitching can't carry the team forever, it is time for the offense to contribute too. And they did yesterday.
The hitters have to show up again today. Luckily, the Giants have hit Halladay well this season, in two games; that's also unlucky, because he's a great pitcher and you have to doubt that a team, particularly an offensively challenged team like the Giants, could score 4-5 runs off him and beat him a third time in the season. Still, at almost any point this season, you would have to doubt that the Giants would reach 3-1 in the NLCS, so sometimes dreams do come true.
Go Giants! Finish off the Phillies at home and celebrate with the great Giants fans!
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 2-1 in the NLCS: MadBum Rush the Phillies
It was tweeted by Jeff Fletcher of AOL that teams with a 2-1 lead in a 7 game series have won 30 of the 40 playoff series. So the Giants are in a very good position from this history. However, I would also note that this means that 25% of the time, this team has lost the series. So it is not a gimmee, there is still a significant chance that the Phillies could roar back.
However, as I noted in my original series blog post, Madison Bumgarner, he of 1.13 ERA in last month of season and the steely nerves of a veteran player twice his age, is going for us against Joe Blanton, who had horrible stats for the season, which looked like a gimmee. But it is not as easy as I once thought.
Game 4: Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner
Shame on me for looking at just his surface seasonal stats: Joe Blanton has been on a huge roll since the All-Star break. 3.48 ERA overall, 3.33 ERA in his 15 starts (hat tip to KNBR for noting his great performance at the end). 10 DOM starts and only 2 DIS starts in those 15 starts, excellent numbers if kept up over a full season. He won't be as much of a gimme as I thought in my original post.
If there is any consolation, most of his 5 non-DOM starts (4), happened in his last 10 starts, and both DIS starts happened then. He did man up, however, and delivered four 5 PQS starts in his last six starts. Basically he hit his bad patch in August but was great in September. That is the exact opposite of what he has done in his career, he's usually good in August and horrible in September.
However, his last start was on September 29th and October 3rd is the last time he pitched in an actual game, 16 days of rest since his relief appearance, and he did not do well in that game, 1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, BB, and one of the hits were a homer. And he has not done well with extra rest, interestingly enough:
4 days rest: 3.83 ERA (104 starts)
5 days rest: 4.80 ERA (64 starts)
6+ days rest: 4.97 ERA (22 starts)
Basically, when he don't get exactly 4 days rest, he gets rusty a lot, one day alone has made a huge difference, almost a run more, and he has pitched in a significant number of games in 5+ days rest situations to suggest that this is not a fluke.
And, also interestingly enough, he has built his career on keeping LHH down, he is not even that great against RHH. The batting line for LHH is worse than for RHH:
LHH: .267/.320/.406/.726
RHH: .278/.325/.440/.764
So the Giants will be facing a very tough opponent, who should be thoroughly rested, though possibly rusty. The Giants might need to capitalize on that rustiness early in the game, to knock him out before he finds his strike, and get into a good groove. For some reason, RHH can hit Blanton for extra power, could be our key to winning today, as we will have Burrell, Ross, and Posey in there, plus Franchez and probably Uribe. If he had that batting line for RHH and the usual platoon advantage that LHH would have on him, he would not be a major league pitcher today, he's probably a AAAA pitcher bouncing up and down to fill in a rotation spot.
Giants Hitters Vs. Blanton
Bill James matchup report shows that the Giants hitters don't have a great history against Blanton. Some key names and numbers:
Burrell: 3-12, 3 HR, BB, 5 K
Fontenot: 2-9
Huff: 4-20, BB, 2 K (due for hits, low BABIP)
Ishikawa: 3-4, K
Posey: 1-3, K
Renteria: 0-3
Ross: 3-11, 1 HR, 6 K though
Rowand: 2-4
Franchez: 2-7, K
Sandoval: 0-6, K
Torres: 1-3, HR, K
Uribe: 1-11, 3 K
Sandoval Need to Step: Could be Ready to Step Up
The speculation among the Giants beat writers is that Sandoval will get a shot at Blanton. Obviously, his numbers are not good, but that was probably half in August when Pablo was not doing well. Of course, he hasn't been doing well recently either, but drew a walk in his last PH assignment, so I think he might be ready to contribute. I think for the Giants to win this series and hopefully win the World Series, Sandoval is among the key players who needs to heat up NOW. We cannot rely on Cody Ross to carry us all the way through (though if he's capable of that, all the better :^) (Just saw a tweeted factoid: apparently Ross was also claimed by the Phillies but the Giants got him because they had a worse record; funny how fate works!). Sandoval is in today's lineup.
Other key guys are the usual suspects that we all can name, pretty much our whole lineup, really: Torres, Posey, Huff, Burrell, Uribe. For our long-term benefits, I really want Posey or Sandoval to take the lead, we've seen Posey do it during the season, so we know we have it in him (maybe next year he can be like Will Clark and take over a series), but Sandoval we are still learning, his ups and downs this season has put a lot of doubt in people's minds (not in mind, though), so it would be nice if he started blasting balls out like he does when he's zoned in.
Given that Sandoval was patient enough to battle for 7 pitches, 3 of which were strikes, to take a walk in a situation where we needed every base runner we could get (down 6-1), where someone might be tempted to hit a 6-run homer with the bases empty, he was able to hold back, take the balls given him, foul off the third strike, I have to think that he is now not swinging at everything hoping to connect, like he was the first two games, his first two playoff games, he might be ready to Kung Fu the ball.
If we had a functioning Kung Fu Panda, that would put pressure on the opposing pitchers and give our other hitters better pitches as well, particularly if he confounds the pitchers by hitting good pitches for line-drive hits (much like how Ross has been doing that so far). A Pandoval would also, as Bochy likes to say, keep the line moving, much like they did yesterday to score two runs. And the occasional homer would help as well.
Torres Could be Key But Not Today
There has been a lot of stats noting how important it is for a team to score first, and the key for the Giants to score first in 2010 has been Andres Torres. Bochy said specifically that he was resting Torres yesterday so that he can regain his focus, but still kept him out of today's lineup. Torres also mentioned some problems with his ADD medicine but that he's got that fixed now, though maybe not enough for Bochy's tastes.
If he can return to his 2009-10 goodness, that would obviously be a huge plus for our offense, particularly if he contributes a homer here and there. I think he's going to be ready as well, assuming that ADD med problem was a big part of his struggles. But obviously we won't find out today.
Getting Bumgarner the lead early would allow him to be aggressive in going after hitters. Our pitchers seem to gain an advantage when they get the lead, they have been very successful when given the lead. Hence the need for our offense to wake up, but with no Torres, have to hope Renteria and Sanchez up top can do something for Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross to drive in. Sandoval is batting 7th and Rowand 8th. Rowand says that he's really strong right now, it would be great if he catches on fire, but he struck out twice yesterday. Have to assume the line drive double makes Bochy thinks he is in his groove, Bochy unfortunately has seen Rowand at his best and worse the past few seasons, hopefully he can tell when Rowand is on or not.
However, as I noted in my original series blog post, Madison Bumgarner, he of 1.13 ERA in last month of season and the steely nerves of a veteran player twice his age, is going for us against Joe Blanton, who had horrible stats for the season, which looked like a gimmee. But it is not as easy as I once thought.
Game 4: Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner
Shame on me for looking at just his surface seasonal stats: Joe Blanton has been on a huge roll since the All-Star break. 3.48 ERA overall, 3.33 ERA in his 15 starts (hat tip to KNBR for noting his great performance at the end). 10 DOM starts and only 2 DIS starts in those 15 starts, excellent numbers if kept up over a full season. He won't be as much of a gimme as I thought in my original post.
If there is any consolation, most of his 5 non-DOM starts (4), happened in his last 10 starts, and both DIS starts happened then. He did man up, however, and delivered four 5 PQS starts in his last six starts. Basically he hit his bad patch in August but was great in September. That is the exact opposite of what he has done in his career, he's usually good in August and horrible in September.
However, his last start was on September 29th and October 3rd is the last time he pitched in an actual game, 16 days of rest since his relief appearance, and he did not do well in that game, 1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, BB, and one of the hits were a homer. And he has not done well with extra rest, interestingly enough:
4 days rest: 3.83 ERA (104 starts)
5 days rest: 4.80 ERA (64 starts)
6+ days rest: 4.97 ERA (22 starts)
Basically, when he don't get exactly 4 days rest, he gets rusty a lot, one day alone has made a huge difference, almost a run more, and he has pitched in a significant number of games in 5+ days rest situations to suggest that this is not a fluke.
And, also interestingly enough, he has built his career on keeping LHH down, he is not even that great against RHH. The batting line for LHH is worse than for RHH:
LHH: .267/.320/.406/.726
RHH: .278/.325/.440/.764
So the Giants will be facing a very tough opponent, who should be thoroughly rested, though possibly rusty. The Giants might need to capitalize on that rustiness early in the game, to knock him out before he finds his strike, and get into a good groove. For some reason, RHH can hit Blanton for extra power, could be our key to winning today, as we will have Burrell, Ross, and Posey in there, plus Franchez and probably Uribe. If he had that batting line for RHH and the usual platoon advantage that LHH would have on him, he would not be a major league pitcher today, he's probably a AAAA pitcher bouncing up and down to fill in a rotation spot.
Giants Hitters Vs. Blanton
Bill James matchup report shows that the Giants hitters don't have a great history against Blanton. Some key names and numbers:
Burrell: 3-12, 3 HR, BB, 5 K
Fontenot: 2-9
Huff: 4-20, BB, 2 K (due for hits, low BABIP)
Ishikawa: 3-4, K
Posey: 1-3, K
Renteria: 0-3
Ross: 3-11, 1 HR, 6 K though
Rowand: 2-4
Franchez: 2-7, K
Sandoval: 0-6, K
Torres: 1-3, HR, K
Uribe: 1-11, 3 K
Sandoval Need to Step: Could be Ready to Step Up
The speculation among the Giants beat writers is that Sandoval will get a shot at Blanton. Obviously, his numbers are not good, but that was probably half in August when Pablo was not doing well. Of course, he hasn't been doing well recently either, but drew a walk in his last PH assignment, so I think he might be ready to contribute. I think for the Giants to win this series and hopefully win the World Series, Sandoval is among the key players who needs to heat up NOW. We cannot rely on Cody Ross to carry us all the way through (though if he's capable of that, all the better :^) (Just saw a tweeted factoid: apparently Ross was also claimed by the Phillies but the Giants got him because they had a worse record; funny how fate works!). Sandoval is in today's lineup.
Other key guys are the usual suspects that we all can name, pretty much our whole lineup, really: Torres, Posey, Huff, Burrell, Uribe. For our long-term benefits, I really want Posey or Sandoval to take the lead, we've seen Posey do it during the season, so we know we have it in him (maybe next year he can be like Will Clark and take over a series), but Sandoval we are still learning, his ups and downs this season has put a lot of doubt in people's minds (not in mind, though), so it would be nice if he started blasting balls out like he does when he's zoned in.
Given that Sandoval was patient enough to battle for 7 pitches, 3 of which were strikes, to take a walk in a situation where we needed every base runner we could get (down 6-1), where someone might be tempted to hit a 6-run homer with the bases empty, he was able to hold back, take the balls given him, foul off the third strike, I have to think that he is now not swinging at everything hoping to connect, like he was the first two games, his first two playoff games, he might be ready to Kung Fu the ball.
If we had a functioning Kung Fu Panda, that would put pressure on the opposing pitchers and give our other hitters better pitches as well, particularly if he confounds the pitchers by hitting good pitches for line-drive hits (much like how Ross has been doing that so far). A Pandoval would also, as Bochy likes to say, keep the line moving, much like they did yesterday to score two runs. And the occasional homer would help as well.
Torres Could be Key But Not Today
There has been a lot of stats noting how important it is for a team to score first, and the key for the Giants to score first in 2010 has been Andres Torres. Bochy said specifically that he was resting Torres yesterday so that he can regain his focus, but still kept him out of today's lineup. Torres also mentioned some problems with his ADD medicine but that he's got that fixed now, though maybe not enough for Bochy's tastes.
If he can return to his 2009-10 goodness, that would obviously be a huge plus for our offense, particularly if he contributes a homer here and there. I think he's going to be ready as well, assuming that ADD med problem was a big part of his struggles. But obviously we won't find out today.
Getting Bumgarner the lead early would allow him to be aggressive in going after hitters. Our pitchers seem to gain an advantage when they get the lead, they have been very successful when given the lead. Hence the need for our offense to wake up, but with no Torres, have to hope Renteria and Sanchez up top can do something for Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross to drive in. Sandoval is batting 7th and Rowand 8th. Rowand says that he's really strong right now, it would be great if he catches on fire, but he struck out twice yesterday. Have to assume the line drive double makes Bochy thinks he is in his groove, Bochy unfortunately has seen Rowand at his best and worse the past few seasons, hopefully he can tell when Rowand is on or not.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 1-1 in NLCS: Beat Phillies in SF!
Thought I would post some thoughts about Giants in-between games.
Pucetas PTBNL in Guillen Trade
It has been announced that Kevin Pucetas was the Player To Be Named Later in the Jose Guillen trade. As typical, many people were upset about it and went on tirades about Sabean, but Pucetas hasn't been a good prospect since the start of the 2008 season. I like him, but he is a very long shot now to make the majors, let be a good starter. I think he was worth the opportunity to see if Guillen could go on a hot streak for us. Not every gamble is going to succeed and that should not mean that we don't take any risky moves.
Something Needs to be Done About Umpiring
First off, I want to say that I want umpires there, I don't think the game would be the same without human umpires. That said, there has been unacceptable situations all through the playoffs, whether it be missed calls, inconsistent strike zones, or what have you. The reason for this is that the umpire union protects those who either no longer has it, or never had it in the first place.
Second, I don't know how hard it is to have a consistent strikezone. Even if you have a wide zone, as long as you are consistent, then pitchers can beef a little about that, but at least they know what the parameters are and can work within that defined zone. When it is inconsistent, there is nothing the player can do but be frustrated. There should be a standard that umpires have to meet, and if they cannot meet it over a 162 game season, then they are bumped to the minors and someone new comes up. That will give umpires an incentive to do better at this and also leeway that if they all are good, none would lose their jobs. But if you are fading, then you are out.
Third, there has to be some way for managers to challenge a blatantly bad call, particularly in the playoffs. Really critical calls don't happen that often in games. Perhaps managers are allowed "reviews" equal to the number of games in a series they are in (2, 3, or 4 during regular, 5 or 7 during playoffs) that they can use anytime in the series. That then becomes something strategic that a manager can do.
They can't argue strikes/ball calls, but I would think any other call could be challenged and reviewed via video. If the review is not clear, then the umpires could huddle together and decide, though I doubt they would reverse their fellow umpire's call, but that is the breaks sometime. But most of the time, the replay, particularly in slo-mo, will show clearly what happened, depending on the angle. I would also allow the teams to argue their points, to show the replay that supports their position. Doesn't add that much more time to a game than a TV timeout, in my opinion, but it could change the balance of the game.
Co-Dy!
Cody Ross has been the MVP of both playoff series so far, IMO. His performance made me think of Gene Tenace's performance for the A's in the early 70's. Lots of people have been saying that the Giants got a player that they didn't want, but forget that teams logically shouldn't claim a player unless they want him, because the other team could just decide to dump the player on you, particularly when it is the cheapskate Marlins, who saved $1M by giving Ross to the Giants.
Andy Baggarly wrote on Ross here, interviewing Sabean, who noted that plus left the "clear impression that the club will tender him [Ross] a contract, noting, "His situation is not daunting. His numbers isn't going to go off the map. His platform year was last year, not this year, so it's a very affordable situation if we go that route.
On his end, Ross said that he would love to work out a multi-year deal:
I don't think the Giants are going to go that far out, but a two year deal plus option is probably definitive doable (though Schierholtz won't be happy about that).
Uggla to Join the Giants too?
Also, apparently Ross is friends with Dan Uggla and he is extolling the virtues of playing for SF, according to John Shea:
The main problem with that is the money factor, though DeRosa's and Sanchez's contract would be up that season, freeing up $12M for Uggla, but our pitchers, including Lincecum, Wilson, and Sanchez, will be due large raises by then via arbitration. The only way we can sign Uggla to a contract he would want is if Neukom can back up his promise to consider all baseball decisions and allow him to work the money and see if he can get it done.
I still predict that the Giants want and will get $50M+ from the A's for permission to move to San Jose (only fair because they never paid much, if any, to enter the market in the first place and dilute the fan base). The situation is very similar to the Washington Nationals moving into the Baltimore Orioles territory and the concessions that they made to get into DC. That could fund the Giants top players at least to mid-2010's, by which point Zito's contract would be off the books, freeing up $20M, until the mortgage is up in 2019, then that'll be another $20M to spend on players.
Plus the money that MLBAM (their internet arm) will bring in as well, it has been a huge success. More importantly, it probably will eventually suck money away from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and D-gers, and into the collective fund that the MLBAM represents. That will even up the teams over time, making the league more fairer, like the NFL and NBA, than the unfair unevenness that exists today where the Yankees can spend 4 times more than some of the poorest teams.
Renteria May Have Earned his $9.5M Salary With Tip
Renteria has had a horribly disappointing season, which he acknowledged in an interview with the Chronicle in September, if I recall right. We obviously all knew that, but it is rare that an athlete would admit that in an interview. It totally appears that we got virtually nothing for our money.
However, he may have earned much of that, if not all, with his tip that he gave Cody Ross. As reported by Henry Schulman:
If Ross can keep on hitting like this during this series and help get the Giants into the World Series, I would consider Renteria's salary earned with that one very valuable tip. Apparently he has been approached to become a coach, as he has discussed retiring after this season because of his physical ills, but he is leaning towards business ventures (well, he did get $19M from us...) instead of coaching, if he decides to retire.
I Believe in Bochy
I wrote last season that I didn't think that Bochy would be the manager who could lead the Giants to the World Series, that they would get there in spite of him, if anything, because he wasn't willing to make moves that would piss off vets who deserved to be pushed aside, when needed, during the playoffs. However, this season has changed my mind on him, I believe he is the guy to bring us that World Series championship.
Among other things, he benched Rowand and started Torres, dumped Wellemeyer once Bumgarner was ready, pushed out Romo then accepted him back in (Dusty would have just kept him in the doghouse), went with Posey over Molina once they thought he was ready, kept Renteria on the bench even though he was healthy while continuing to start Uribe, kept Sandoval going as long as he wasn't mucking things up so much (i.e. as long as they were winning) but benched him quickly in playoffs when he wasn't doing well, and most importantly of all, left Guillen and particularly Zito off the playoff rosters so far, while starting Cody Ross and Madison Bumgarner over the two of them. I am sure there are others, these are the ones that came to mind quickly.
The playoffs are a different environment. You have to risk pissing off somebody at one point or another in order to maximize your chances of winning, egos be damned. That is one big reason why I was happy Dusty was gone after 2002, there was no way Kenny Lofton should have been starting in CF while Shinjo played DH, and given what we now know about Nen's arm, there is no way you take out a starter who has been doing very well, like Ortiz had been, and especially with a big lead, you ride that horse as long as you can before you go to the bullpen, saving those arms in case any of them have problems shutting down the opposition. And if the reliever is doing well, you wait until the last batter to use Nen, at best. Ideally your set-up guy saves the game - Nen's ego be damned - and you don't risk Nen's body failing him at an inopportune moment.
I believe that Bochy is capable of doing that, well, because he just did it, big time, leaving Barry Zito off the playoff roster. Can't make a bigger move than that, well, other than leaving Rowand off the roster too, though he appears to be justified in that move, Rowand has delivered on a pinch-hit and is under consideration to be starting at least Game 3.
Giants in Good Position
I think the Giants are in good position. Many media-heads (including one I've criticized here often before), talks about how the Phillies have been awoken by this one game. Frankly, a lot of mistakes by the Giants helped the Phillies score all those runs. Take away Fontenot's and Huff's mistakes, and the Phillies only had 1 run, and it would have been tied and going into extra innings, exposing their bullpen.
People seem to forget, the Giants played the Phillies even during the season, and could have been ahead if not for a bloop double in the 9th with runners on base. They have beaten each of the Phillies top three starters this season, and Blanton, who they did not defeat, has had a horrible season up to now, I don't see him doing that to the Giants once again. Because the Giants have been able to beat up enough on the other teams' good pitchers to win, they did it all through September, and now during the playoffs.
The media-heads also are not aware that starting pitchers can take over games when they are on, whether they be great pitchers or journeyman pitchers. Hot hitters, such as the comments about how Rollins may be waking up and getting hot (and that is only one game that he got two hits, and the first was a dribbler), as I noted before, he can hit 2-3 homers, but if nobody is on, they can still easily lose, don't matter how hot a hitter is, it takes a team to score.
However, if the starting pitcher is on, he can dominate any game, don't matter what lineup is up against him, even a good offensive team like the Phillies. And the Giants are throwing four very good starting pitchers against them, Lincecum 2-time Cy Young winner, Cain has been pitching great since he was 20 YO, and Sanchez and Bumgarner led or was among top in ERA for September/October games, with 1.01 and 1.13 ERA, respectively. That is Bob Gibson low.
And these pitchers have been battle tested by doing what needed to be done in September/October. Not each and every time, but on the basis of series, the Giants won 8 of their last 10 series, including one four game series, both on the road and at home. Plus, of course, Atlanta, if you count the whole set as a series.
With the next three games in SF, if the Giants can continue to win series, they would win 2 of the 3 (right now the matchups are Cain vs. Hamels, Bumgarner vs. Blanton, Lincecum vs. Halladay), which would leave them leading 3 games to 2 and going back to Philly needing to win one of two while the Phillies would need to win both games. That's good odds for the Giants.
Game 3 Lineup
The talk is about replacing Torres and Fontenot in the lineup. I agree with both, and for Rowand and Sandoval. Frankly, the way Torres is flailing, Rowand's hitting should make up the difference in defense, and if he catches on fire (he's been rested enough) he can carry a team, much like he did in early May. Hopefully we can catch lightening in the bottle with him.
And I still strongly believe in Sandoval, and given the poor defense Fontenot showed at 3B on Sunday, don't believe that Sandoval could be that much worse playing 3B. Meanwhile, a Sandoval who is over his jitters being in the playoffs could start delivering premium offense to our sputtering offense - he hit .343/.395/.486/.880 in his last 10 starts in the season. His walk yesterday suggests that he might be over his jitters and yips earlier against Atlanta, because otherwise he would be have been swinging wildly and not even come close to a 2 ball-count, let alone a walk.
The problem is who to lead off if Torres is not in the lineup. Frankly, if Rowand is in the lineup, it seems like Bochy would lead him off. He would impress me even more, a la above, if he went with someone else in this scenario. Andy Baggarly has been suggesting that Ross would be ideal for leadoff because of his success against Hamels, as well as his high OBP, and it would be hard to bet against him because he always seems to have some inside info that makes him prescient in his speculations.
But given his power, I would rather have someone else leadoff, like Franchez, and bat Cody 2nd, so that he can power home Franchez if he gets on base (or the 8th place hitter), and if not that, get on base for Huff, Posey, Burrell behind him. Plus, as Jeff Oscodar tweeted and reminded me, Sanchez had two hits on Sunday, so perhaps his being a playoff virgin jitters are over now.
Potential lineup:
I like this one for reasons above, plus Renteria has delivered in key RBI situations in his career, Rowand does better in lower pressure situations like 7th, and Sandoval, if he is on (plus he batted here often to end the season), he can frustrate pitchers trying to pitch around him to get to the pitcher by him squaring up pitches just outside and driving them for hits, forcing them to either give him the IBB or focus on pitching outside the strike zone, which I personally think screws with some pitcher's mechanics and thinking.
Then for game 4, if Rowand doesn't hit, you put in Schierholtz and give him a shot against the RHP playing in RF. The Giants could also put Huff in RF and play Ishikawa at 1B, he has delivered big-time during this series as well. I would probably lean towards Ishikawa because he has delivered more consistently than Schierholt has the past two seasons, but Schierholtz, when hot, can help carry the team, so I would be OK with starting him too. Basically you play as many players as you can, within limits, and try to find that hot hand that can carry you for a week or two, like Bochy found in Ross. The Giants need to find another hitter or three if they hope to win this series and advance to the World Series stage.
Go Giants!
Pucetas PTBNL in Guillen Trade
It has been announced that Kevin Pucetas was the Player To Be Named Later in the Jose Guillen trade. As typical, many people were upset about it and went on tirades about Sabean, but Pucetas hasn't been a good prospect since the start of the 2008 season. I like him, but he is a very long shot now to make the majors, let be a good starter. I think he was worth the opportunity to see if Guillen could go on a hot streak for us. Not every gamble is going to succeed and that should not mean that we don't take any risky moves.
Something Needs to be Done About Umpiring
First off, I want to say that I want umpires there, I don't think the game would be the same without human umpires. That said, there has been unacceptable situations all through the playoffs, whether it be missed calls, inconsistent strike zones, or what have you. The reason for this is that the umpire union protects those who either no longer has it, or never had it in the first place.
Second, I don't know how hard it is to have a consistent strikezone. Even if you have a wide zone, as long as you are consistent, then pitchers can beef a little about that, but at least they know what the parameters are and can work within that defined zone. When it is inconsistent, there is nothing the player can do but be frustrated. There should be a standard that umpires have to meet, and if they cannot meet it over a 162 game season, then they are bumped to the minors and someone new comes up. That will give umpires an incentive to do better at this and also leeway that if they all are good, none would lose their jobs. But if you are fading, then you are out.
Third, there has to be some way for managers to challenge a blatantly bad call, particularly in the playoffs. Really critical calls don't happen that often in games. Perhaps managers are allowed "reviews" equal to the number of games in a series they are in (2, 3, or 4 during regular, 5 or 7 during playoffs) that they can use anytime in the series. That then becomes something strategic that a manager can do.
They can't argue strikes/ball calls, but I would think any other call could be challenged and reviewed via video. If the review is not clear, then the umpires could huddle together and decide, though I doubt they would reverse their fellow umpire's call, but that is the breaks sometime. But most of the time, the replay, particularly in slo-mo, will show clearly what happened, depending on the angle. I would also allow the teams to argue their points, to show the replay that supports their position. Doesn't add that much more time to a game than a TV timeout, in my opinion, but it could change the balance of the game.
Co-Dy!
Cody Ross has been the MVP of both playoff series so far, IMO. His performance made me think of Gene Tenace's performance for the A's in the early 70's. Lots of people have been saying that the Giants got a player that they didn't want, but forget that teams logically shouldn't claim a player unless they want him, because the other team could just decide to dump the player on you, particularly when it is the cheapskate Marlins, who saved $1M by giving Ross to the Giants.
Andy Baggarly wrote on Ross here, interviewing Sabean, who noted that plus left the "clear impression that the club will tender him [Ross] a contract, noting, "His situation is not daunting. His numbers isn't going to go off the map. His platform year was last year, not this year, so it's a very affordable situation if we go that route.
On his end, Ross said that he would love to work out a multi-year deal:
“When I got an idea of how this team is and is going to be, and playing in front of that crowd every day, I can’t see a place I’d rather be,” he said. “This has been an amazing experience for me. I’d love to play here longer than these few months or even another year. I’d like to finish my career here.”Also, from John Shea:
Ross might have assured himself a Giants contract in 2011 with his work in the NLDS. Considering the NLCS, it could be multiyear. "This team is built for years to come, and I'd love to play here longer than this run we're having," Ross said. "I'd like to stay for my career." He'll be eligible for arbitration after making $4.45 million this year, and general manager Brian Sabean said it'll be "nothing that will break the bank" and "an affordable situation."
I don't think the Giants are going to go that far out, but a two year deal plus option is probably definitive doable (though Schierholtz won't be happy about that).
Uggla to Join the Giants too?
Also, apparently Ross is friends with Dan Uggla and he is extolling the virtues of playing for SF, according to John Shea:
Ross has been filling Dan Uggla's head with stories about how dandy it is to play for the Giants, who have explored trades for the Marlins' power-hitting infielder. In fact, Ross has tried to persuade Uggla not to sign a long-term deal with Florida before his final year of arbitration so he can sign with the Giants after the 2011 season.That can work in many ways. Both Uggla and Sanchez has experience playing 3B, particularly Sanchez at the MLB level (plus defense there FYI, and that might give his offense a boost, as he hit much better when starting at 3B), which would move Pablo to 1B now and Huff to the corner OF. Also, Sanchez's contract is over in 2010, so they could just replace Sanchez with Uggla, if they decide to go that route. Uggla could probably play 1B too, moving Huff to corner OF again.
The main problem with that is the money factor, though DeRosa's and Sanchez's contract would be up that season, freeing up $12M for Uggla, but our pitchers, including Lincecum, Wilson, and Sanchez, will be due large raises by then via arbitration. The only way we can sign Uggla to a contract he would want is if Neukom can back up his promise to consider all baseball decisions and allow him to work the money and see if he can get it done.
I still predict that the Giants want and will get $50M+ from the A's for permission to move to San Jose (only fair because they never paid much, if any, to enter the market in the first place and dilute the fan base). The situation is very similar to the Washington Nationals moving into the Baltimore Orioles territory and the concessions that they made to get into DC. That could fund the Giants top players at least to mid-2010's, by which point Zito's contract would be off the books, freeing up $20M, until the mortgage is up in 2019, then that'll be another $20M to spend on players.
Plus the money that MLBAM (their internet arm) will bring in as well, it has been a huge success. More importantly, it probably will eventually suck money away from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and D-gers, and into the collective fund that the MLBAM represents. That will even up the teams over time, making the league more fairer, like the NFL and NBA, than the unfair unevenness that exists today where the Yankees can spend 4 times more than some of the poorest teams.
Renteria May Have Earned his $9.5M Salary With Tip
Renteria has had a horribly disappointing season, which he acknowledged in an interview with the Chronicle in September, if I recall right. We obviously all knew that, but it is rare that an athlete would admit that in an interview. It totally appears that we got virtually nothing for our money.
However, he may have earned much of that, if not all, with his tip that he gave Cody Ross. As reported by Henry Schulman:
Cody Ross, the Giants' postseason MVP thus far, was hitless in nine consecutive at-bats after a second-inning double in Game 2 of the Division Series against Atlanta. The ninth was a strikeout against starter Derek Lowe in the third inning of Game 4 at Turner Field.
Renteria noticed a mechanical flaw. Ross lifts his front foot as the pitch is thrown for timing and was not getting it down quickly enough. That made it harder to see the pitch deep into the zone.
"I went and watched video after my at-bat and he was right. I wasn't," Ross said.
Next time up in the sixth inning, with the Giants trailing 1-0, Ross homered to end Lowe's bid for a no-hitter. In the seventh, Ross grounded a single through the hole to drive in what became the winning run in the series clincher.
He did not stop there. His next two at-bats came in Game 1 of the NLCS on Saturday, and he homered each time against Roy Halladay to ignite the Giants' 4-3 win, then added his fourth homer of the postseason Sunday against Roy Oswalt.
As a reserve, Renteria gets a lot of time to watch and said he provides hitting tips liberally.
"Even if you're not playing, you have to help," Renteria said. "It's a team. You see something wrong with somebody, you've got to tell him. You hope he watches the video and agrees with you."
If Ross can keep on hitting like this during this series and help get the Giants into the World Series, I would consider Renteria's salary earned with that one very valuable tip. Apparently he has been approached to become a coach, as he has discussed retiring after this season because of his physical ills, but he is leaning towards business ventures (well, he did get $19M from us...) instead of coaching, if he decides to retire.
I Believe in Bochy
I wrote last season that I didn't think that Bochy would be the manager who could lead the Giants to the World Series, that they would get there in spite of him, if anything, because he wasn't willing to make moves that would piss off vets who deserved to be pushed aside, when needed, during the playoffs. However, this season has changed my mind on him, I believe he is the guy to bring us that World Series championship.
Among other things, he benched Rowand and started Torres, dumped Wellemeyer once Bumgarner was ready, pushed out Romo then accepted him back in (Dusty would have just kept him in the doghouse), went with Posey over Molina once they thought he was ready, kept Renteria on the bench even though he was healthy while continuing to start Uribe, kept Sandoval going as long as he wasn't mucking things up so much (i.e. as long as they were winning) but benched him quickly in playoffs when he wasn't doing well, and most importantly of all, left Guillen and particularly Zito off the playoff rosters so far, while starting Cody Ross and Madison Bumgarner over the two of them. I am sure there are others, these are the ones that came to mind quickly.
The playoffs are a different environment. You have to risk pissing off somebody at one point or another in order to maximize your chances of winning, egos be damned. That is one big reason why I was happy Dusty was gone after 2002, there was no way Kenny Lofton should have been starting in CF while Shinjo played DH, and given what we now know about Nen's arm, there is no way you take out a starter who has been doing very well, like Ortiz had been, and especially with a big lead, you ride that horse as long as you can before you go to the bullpen, saving those arms in case any of them have problems shutting down the opposition. And if the reliever is doing well, you wait until the last batter to use Nen, at best. Ideally your set-up guy saves the game - Nen's ego be damned - and you don't risk Nen's body failing him at an inopportune moment.
I believe that Bochy is capable of doing that, well, because he just did it, big time, leaving Barry Zito off the playoff roster. Can't make a bigger move than that, well, other than leaving Rowand off the roster too, though he appears to be justified in that move, Rowand has delivered on a pinch-hit and is under consideration to be starting at least Game 3.
Giants in Good Position
I think the Giants are in good position. Many media-heads (including one I've criticized here often before), talks about how the Phillies have been awoken by this one game. Frankly, a lot of mistakes by the Giants helped the Phillies score all those runs. Take away Fontenot's and Huff's mistakes, and the Phillies only had 1 run, and it would have been tied and going into extra innings, exposing their bullpen.
People seem to forget, the Giants played the Phillies even during the season, and could have been ahead if not for a bloop double in the 9th with runners on base. They have beaten each of the Phillies top three starters this season, and Blanton, who they did not defeat, has had a horrible season up to now, I don't see him doing that to the Giants once again. Because the Giants have been able to beat up enough on the other teams' good pitchers to win, they did it all through September, and now during the playoffs.
The media-heads also are not aware that starting pitchers can take over games when they are on, whether they be great pitchers or journeyman pitchers. Hot hitters, such as the comments about how Rollins may be waking up and getting hot (and that is only one game that he got two hits, and the first was a dribbler), as I noted before, he can hit 2-3 homers, but if nobody is on, they can still easily lose, don't matter how hot a hitter is, it takes a team to score.
However, if the starting pitcher is on, he can dominate any game, don't matter what lineup is up against him, even a good offensive team like the Phillies. And the Giants are throwing four very good starting pitchers against them, Lincecum 2-time Cy Young winner, Cain has been pitching great since he was 20 YO, and Sanchez and Bumgarner led or was among top in ERA for September/October games, with 1.01 and 1.13 ERA, respectively. That is Bob Gibson low.
And these pitchers have been battle tested by doing what needed to be done in September/October. Not each and every time, but on the basis of series, the Giants won 8 of their last 10 series, including one four game series, both on the road and at home. Plus, of course, Atlanta, if you count the whole set as a series.
With the next three games in SF, if the Giants can continue to win series, they would win 2 of the 3 (right now the matchups are Cain vs. Hamels, Bumgarner vs. Blanton, Lincecum vs. Halladay), which would leave them leading 3 games to 2 and going back to Philly needing to win one of two while the Phillies would need to win both games. That's good odds for the Giants.
Game 3 Lineup
The talk is about replacing Torres and Fontenot in the lineup. I agree with both, and for Rowand and Sandoval. Frankly, the way Torres is flailing, Rowand's hitting should make up the difference in defense, and if he catches on fire (he's been rested enough) he can carry a team, much like he did in early May. Hopefully we can catch lightening in the bottle with him.
And I still strongly believe in Sandoval, and given the poor defense Fontenot showed at 3B on Sunday, don't believe that Sandoval could be that much worse playing 3B. Meanwhile, a Sandoval who is over his jitters being in the playoffs could start delivering premium offense to our sputtering offense - he hit .343/.395/.486/.880 in his last 10 starts in the season. His walk yesterday suggests that he might be over his jitters and yips earlier against Atlanta, because otherwise he would be have been swinging wildly and not even come close to a 2 ball-count, let alone a walk.
The problem is who to lead off if Torres is not in the lineup. Frankly, if Rowand is in the lineup, it seems like Bochy would lead him off. He would impress me even more, a la above, if he went with someone else in this scenario. Andy Baggarly has been suggesting that Ross would be ideal for leadoff because of his success against Hamels, as well as his high OBP, and it would be hard to bet against him because he always seems to have some inside info that makes him prescient in his speculations.
But given his power, I would rather have someone else leadoff, like Franchez, and bat Cody 2nd, so that he can power home Franchez if he gets on base (or the 8th place hitter), and if not that, get on base for Huff, Posey, Burrell behind him. Plus, as Jeff Oscodar tweeted and reminded me, Sanchez had two hits on Sunday, so perhaps his being a playoff virgin jitters are over now.
Potential lineup:
- Freddy Sanchez 2B
- Cody Ross RF
- Aubrey Huff 1B
- Buster Posey C
- Pat Burrell LF
- Edgar Renteria SS
- Aaron Rowand CF
- Pablo Sandoval 3B
- Matt Cain
I like this one for reasons above, plus Renteria has delivered in key RBI situations in his career, Rowand does better in lower pressure situations like 7th, and Sandoval, if he is on (plus he batted here often to end the season), he can frustrate pitchers trying to pitch around him to get to the pitcher by him squaring up pitches just outside and driving them for hits, forcing them to either give him the IBB or focus on pitching outside the strike zone, which I personally think screws with some pitcher's mechanics and thinking.
Then for game 4, if Rowand doesn't hit, you put in Schierholtz and give him a shot against the RHP playing in RF. The Giants could also put Huff in RF and play Ishikawa at 1B, he has delivered big-time during this series as well. I would probably lean towards Ishikawa because he has delivered more consistently than Schierholt has the past two seasons, but Schierholtz, when hot, can help carry the team, so I would be OK with starting him too. Basically you play as many players as you can, within limits, and try to find that hot hand that can carry you for a week or two, like Bochy found in Ross. The Giants need to find another hitter or three if they hope to win this series and advance to the World Series stage.
Go Giants!
Friday, October 15, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are in the NLCS: uck Yeah The Phillies
The Giants now face the Phillies for the NL Championship. The Phillies are trying to become the first NL team to make the World Series three years in a row since the Cards did in the 1940's (amazingly, it has been that long and they are that close to doing it). They are finally all healthy, added a great starter in Oswalt, and got a full head of steam heading into this series, having gone 39-19 to end the season, then sweeping past the Reds like they were nothing. To most of the U.S., the Giants are headed into a buzz-saw, questioning how the Giants can even score a run when the Reds, the top offensive team in the NL was shut out twice by the Phillies.
To that I would say that neither do the Reds have a pitching staff like the Giants, a full 0.66 runs behind the Giants in ERA, which is why the Giants lead them in runs allowed by 0.63 runs. I think the pitching has proven to be pretty stout for both sides and thus games like the Giants had against the Braves, very low scoring games will be the norm, despite the Phillies high powered offense. And, it should be noted that the Giants actually played the Phillies even this season, 3-3, and could have been 4-2 if not for a bloop Jason Werth double.
And in games like those, mistakes, whether of pitching or fielding or umpiring, will be changing the fortunes of games, like we saw in the Giants-Braves series. We already know that the pitching hasn't made many mistakes in the past 6 weeks or so. And by baseball-reference.com's fielding stats, the Giants have better fielding than the Phillies, by a large margin by either measure provided. There is Total Zone, where the Giants are +36 total fielding runs above average (1st) while the Phillies are +22 (4th), where the league average is -1, and then there is BIS (associated with Bill James)'s Defensive Runs Above Average, where the Giants are +55 (3rd) and the Phillies are +18 (9th). At approximately 10 runs per win, the Giants are anywhere from 1.4 to 3.7 wins better than the Phillies in defense.
Game 1: Roy Halladay vs. Lincecum
Halladay has not had much history against the Giants, given his AL East past, two games early in his career, one game this season for the Phillies. His peripherals have actually been good, but he has suffered from bat luck with balls in play and that has resulted in him giving up 5 runs in each of his starts against the Giants in his career, early and current. But given his no-hitter against the Reds last week and general greatness throughout this season, the Giants can expect to not do much against him, but can take the memory of beating him earlier this season (FYI, Giants only team to beat Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels this season).
Lincecum has been on a great roll since he added a slider to his repertoire in September. His un-august August was left behind in the dust as he pitched great and he had a history making start in his first ever playoff game, striking out 14 in a complete game shutout (previous Giants high was 10 strikeouts). He has a 3.17 ERA against the Phillies in his career, though "only" 3.66 ERA in Citizen Bank Park and 1.38 ERA from 2008-2010 (he was blasted in his first MLB start, pitching in Philly; he's obviously not that pitcher anymore)
So it is going to be a battle to the end, perhaps dueling no-hitters (at least low hit games) that will turn on a key mistake: pitch, field, umpiring. And, again, I would add that wild card is that the Giants hit Halladay well in SF, a relative pitcher's park compare to Philly, and now they are facing him in Philly, and they have lefty power from Torres and Huff, plus Burrell and Ross has a lot of experience hitting there (as well as Rowand).
And Posey got a week to rest, he has been in a slump since he passed roughly the 100 games catching mark (I think game 97 was the start of his slump), which jibes with the Giants worry pre-season that Posey would not last more than 100 games starts stamina-wise. If he can start hitting that would give us another weapon.
Another wild card, to me, is Sandoval. He was on a hot streak the final couple of weeks of the season, he was loose and free again, after getting over his mother's near-death situation. From what I heard during the games, he was wild swinging again, his Panda-cool lost in the heat of his first playoffs. If he can finally shrug that off, he will be especially dangerous to Halladay, because they would not be expecting him to hit him well on pitches outside the zone, he could surprise Halladay. Then again, he's never hit well there, so he might sit out this game.
Game 2: Roy Oswalt vs. Sanchez
Oswalt has a 3.61 ERA against the Giants in his career. He's actually has pitched well against them in Houston but has had problems in SF. That probably played into why he gets this position of pitching both games in Philly, where he has a career 2.10 ERA, a lot of that against the high-powered Phillies themselves, but still, a stellar 1.76 ERA there this season. Despite that 3.61 ERA, he only has a 6-8 record against the Giants, due mainly to his 1-3 record this season, getting out-dueled a couple of times by Lincecum, if I recall right. Like Halladay, his pitching peripherals were top-notch, he was just unlucky in the saber-view of this games.
Sanchez has become a man, if not THE man. When other pitchers faltered is closing down the 'Dres, he stepped up, in a game that he would have become flustered at some point because of his struggles with the walk or the umpire or the fielding or whatever. And he led the rotation in ERA in the crucial September/October games down the stretch, with a 1.01 ERA. Posey appears to have learned how to tame the wild stallion that we have had the past few seasons, probably with a lot of help from Eli Whiteside, the first to learn how to tame him (Sanchez has had horrible ERAs with Molina catching during his career, including this, his breakout, season).
On top of that, in the crucial last stretches of the season, Sanchez went into Philly, and stopped a three game losing streak with a great 8 IP, 2-hitter, with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts (1 R/ER), against much of the Phillies regular lineup, only Ryan Howard missing, though that might not change much (3 for 14 career, though all three hits are extra-base hits, 2 doubles and - amazingly - a triple; must have been in Death Valley!)
Previous to this season, I would have been scared of this matchup. Even early this season, I thought that Sanchez could take on Oswalt, but would have been unsure which Sanchez will show up. Now, I'm thinking the Giants can take Oswalt with Sanchez. And the Giants this season has been 21-12 when Sanchez starts.
A key to keeping an offense muzzled is to strike out a lot of their batters (high K/9). Lincecum and Sanchez have both been among the leaders in that the past few seasons and Sanchez has the stuff that not only strikes out hitters, but keeps their damage down in terms of base hits (his H/9 has been very low the past couple of seasons and his batting average against has been among the leaders - could be the leader but I don't feel the need to check exactly, it is enough that he's among the leaders).
This should be a battle that could go either way, much like game 1, but the Giants have had enough success against Oswalt (relatively speaking, he never shuts them down but handles the Giants well) and Sanchez has been able to shut them down (and recently) that I think the Giants have a very good chance of winning this game. But it should be another close game unless a lot of mistakes are made.
Game 3: Cole Hamels vs. Cain
Cole Hamels was his stellar self again, after a blip last season (probably celebrated too much after 2008 World Series and didn't prepare well enough, understandable at his age). He has a horrible career in AT&T, 6.12 ERA, and it has gotten worse each year, his best game out of the four he has pitched was his first start there in 2007, and even then he gave up 3 runs (5 ER) in 7 IP. His peripherals look great - high K/9, high K/BB, no homer ever given up, just a lot of hits given up - so that would suggest that it was all bad luck. And four starts, it is a small sample. Still, you have to wonder, if he could not handle the Giants in late April this season, when Burrell, Posey, Torres were not regular starters and Huff had not started hitting like he has since, then why should he be able to handle them now?
Cain kept his performance level with his breakout last season, this season. He is Hamels equal for all intents and purposes. A key thing is he has a 2.93 ERA at home, so he is much tougher at home than on the road (though still good, 3.35 ERA). Another key thing is that while people may look at his career ERA against the Phillies and think that they will beat up on him (6.23 ERA in 5 starts), but if you look deeper, he has actually pitched well against them the past two seasons, after he figured out to be a better pitcher, while pitching horribly in his early years. He has a 2.77 ERA the past two seasons, great peripherals, usual Cain stats: OK K's, now low walks (his big change), and very few hits.
As most games in this series will be, should be a close game, tight game, but I would have to lean towards Cain for this matchup, because it is in SF but if there is a game 7, right now I would lean towards Hamel, as he has pitched well against the Giants in the past in Philly (3.41 ERA there, though oddly enough, and thus good for Giants favor, last year, his bad year, he shut them out there, but this year, against our best players in August - the Sanchez game - he only lasted 5 IP with 3 ER, just giving up too many hits, otherwise good game peripherals-wise).
Game 4: Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner (both penciled in)
Neither team appears to want to use their top starter (Halladay and Lincecum) on 3-days rest to start this game, but both managers demured on that, saying that this start is only penciled in. Most probably, if either team is down 0-3, their ace will start, but given the history of pitcher usage during division player (few pitchers ever pitch with 3 days rest, and only twice in last 19 years, and the last time in championship series was in 1992. So mostly likely we will see this matchup.
Blanton has pitched OK against the Giants in SF, but very poorly overall, suggesting that he might have been very lucky in SF. Horrible peripherals, in any case. He is probably getting this start because he shut them down in August in Philly, but he has had a horrible season overall. However, his peripherals have been pretty good overall, so one could chalk this up to a bad BABIP (.324) season. So he could give a good game for them.
Bumgarner, however, has been a co-ace with Sanchez the past 6 weeks, compiling a 1.13 ERA in the final stretch of the season, then shutting down the Braves in the playoffs IN HIS FIRST MLB PLAYOFF EVER AT AGE 21. And he's our 4th starter! Could be a close game, but I would be disappointed if we lose this game, this matchup should be a gimme to the Giants, but you never know how things work out in the playoffs.
Giants Thoughts
Should be an even series. As I've been saying, pitching at the highest levels trumps hitting, and we have four of the best starters in the majors vs. their three. As I noted in last post, this ordering currently would match up twice Lincecum-Halladay, Sanchez-Oswalt, Cain-Hamels. We should split those games, on paper, as the Giants have been playing well against the better teams down the stretch, shutting down good offenses, even in Colorado and Arizona.
That leaves game 4 to settle the tie, and I think Bumgarner takes Blanton probably 7-8 times out of 10. But this is one game, so the Giants chances rely on the starters keeping their laser focus that they have had the past 6 weeks and shutting down all opposition to 3 runs or less, and seeing how the offense does. The starters kept it up during the playoffs, but the bullpen needs to rise to their September standards and not falter as they did against Atlanta. If they can live the motto - "Fear the Beard" - the Giants should have a very good chance of winning the NLCS and get into the World Series.
Obviously, the offense will need to contribute as well. I think Burrell's and Rowand's knowledge of the Phillies will help our team battle from both ends, but particularly in how the hitters should approach playing in Citizen Bank Park. We need Torres and Posey to start hitting like they did during the season, but as I noted, Posey might be gassed and playing in adrenaline - the week rest will be most helpful I think. Sanchez, Torres and Sandoval need to get over their jitters and hit like they did at their best. Ross needs to continue his good performance and Burrell needs to lead the way in Philly. Huff appeared to be getting over his jitters in the last game, so hopefully will continue in this series. Uribe has reportedly been gassed too, and hopefully this rest will help him too.
Still, it will be pitching and fielding that drives the Giants success or failure in this series. I think it helped facing a limping Braves team, which gave our playoff newbies a chance to get their jitters out of the way, as needed (obviously our starting pitchers handled it well). Hopefully they can hit more freely now that they have that under their belt, but the Phillies pitchers are better than the Braves, who were already pretty good themselves. That could be our tipping point in terms of success, whether the hitters can get into their place of comfort and like like they can. If they can, and I will point to Huff, Torres, and Sandoval as key hitters to get out of their funk (Citizen Bank Park favors left-handed hitters), then I think they have a good chance of getting into the World Series - not a likely chance but a good chance. I will take that given that this is the group's first NLCS.
And I believe that this will pay off in future seasons when the Giants make the NLCS again (and again) with their stellar pitching staff, and nicely developing lineup led by Posey and Sandoval.
To that I would say that neither do the Reds have a pitching staff like the Giants, a full 0.66 runs behind the Giants in ERA, which is why the Giants lead them in runs allowed by 0.63 runs. I think the pitching has proven to be pretty stout for both sides and thus games like the Giants had against the Braves, very low scoring games will be the norm, despite the Phillies high powered offense. And, it should be noted that the Giants actually played the Phillies even this season, 3-3, and could have been 4-2 if not for a bloop Jason Werth double.
And in games like those, mistakes, whether of pitching or fielding or umpiring, will be changing the fortunes of games, like we saw in the Giants-Braves series. We already know that the pitching hasn't made many mistakes in the past 6 weeks or so. And by baseball-reference.com's fielding stats, the Giants have better fielding than the Phillies, by a large margin by either measure provided. There is Total Zone, where the Giants are +36 total fielding runs above average (1st) while the Phillies are +22 (4th), where the league average is -1, and then there is BIS (associated with Bill James)'s Defensive Runs Above Average, where the Giants are +55 (3rd) and the Phillies are +18 (9th). At approximately 10 runs per win, the Giants are anywhere from 1.4 to 3.7 wins better than the Phillies in defense.
Game 1: Roy Halladay vs. Lincecum
Halladay has not had much history against the Giants, given his AL East past, two games early in his career, one game this season for the Phillies. His peripherals have actually been good, but he has suffered from bat luck with balls in play and that has resulted in him giving up 5 runs in each of his starts against the Giants in his career, early and current. But given his no-hitter against the Reds last week and general greatness throughout this season, the Giants can expect to not do much against him, but can take the memory of beating him earlier this season (FYI, Giants only team to beat Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels this season).
Lincecum has been on a great roll since he added a slider to his repertoire in September. His un-august August was left behind in the dust as he pitched great and he had a history making start in his first ever playoff game, striking out 14 in a complete game shutout (previous Giants high was 10 strikeouts). He has a 3.17 ERA against the Phillies in his career, though "only" 3.66 ERA in Citizen Bank Park and 1.38 ERA from 2008-2010 (he was blasted in his first MLB start, pitching in Philly; he's obviously not that pitcher anymore)
So it is going to be a battle to the end, perhaps dueling no-hitters (at least low hit games) that will turn on a key mistake: pitch, field, umpiring. And, again, I would add that wild card is that the Giants hit Halladay well in SF, a relative pitcher's park compare to Philly, and now they are facing him in Philly, and they have lefty power from Torres and Huff, plus Burrell and Ross has a lot of experience hitting there (as well as Rowand).
And Posey got a week to rest, he has been in a slump since he passed roughly the 100 games catching mark (I think game 97 was the start of his slump), which jibes with the Giants worry pre-season that Posey would not last more than 100 games starts stamina-wise. If he can start hitting that would give us another weapon.
Another wild card, to me, is Sandoval. He was on a hot streak the final couple of weeks of the season, he was loose and free again, after getting over his mother's near-death situation. From what I heard during the games, he was wild swinging again, his Panda-cool lost in the heat of his first playoffs. If he can finally shrug that off, he will be especially dangerous to Halladay, because they would not be expecting him to hit him well on pitches outside the zone, he could surprise Halladay. Then again, he's never hit well there, so he might sit out this game.
Game 2: Roy Oswalt vs. Sanchez
Oswalt has a 3.61 ERA against the Giants in his career. He's actually has pitched well against them in Houston but has had problems in SF. That probably played into why he gets this position of pitching both games in Philly, where he has a career 2.10 ERA, a lot of that against the high-powered Phillies themselves, but still, a stellar 1.76 ERA there this season. Despite that 3.61 ERA, he only has a 6-8 record against the Giants, due mainly to his 1-3 record this season, getting out-dueled a couple of times by Lincecum, if I recall right. Like Halladay, his pitching peripherals were top-notch, he was just unlucky in the saber-view of this games.
Sanchez has become a man, if not THE man. When other pitchers faltered is closing down the 'Dres, he stepped up, in a game that he would have become flustered at some point because of his struggles with the walk or the umpire or the fielding or whatever. And he led the rotation in ERA in the crucial September/October games down the stretch, with a 1.01 ERA. Posey appears to have learned how to tame the wild stallion that we have had the past few seasons, probably with a lot of help from Eli Whiteside, the first to learn how to tame him (Sanchez has had horrible ERAs with Molina catching during his career, including this, his breakout, season).
On top of that, in the crucial last stretches of the season, Sanchez went into Philly, and stopped a three game losing streak with a great 8 IP, 2-hitter, with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts (1 R/ER), against much of the Phillies regular lineup, only Ryan Howard missing, though that might not change much (3 for 14 career, though all three hits are extra-base hits, 2 doubles and - amazingly - a triple; must have been in Death Valley!)
Previous to this season, I would have been scared of this matchup. Even early this season, I thought that Sanchez could take on Oswalt, but would have been unsure which Sanchez will show up. Now, I'm thinking the Giants can take Oswalt with Sanchez. And the Giants this season has been 21-12 when Sanchez starts.
A key to keeping an offense muzzled is to strike out a lot of their batters (high K/9). Lincecum and Sanchez have both been among the leaders in that the past few seasons and Sanchez has the stuff that not only strikes out hitters, but keeps their damage down in terms of base hits (his H/9 has been very low the past couple of seasons and his batting average against has been among the leaders - could be the leader but I don't feel the need to check exactly, it is enough that he's among the leaders).
This should be a battle that could go either way, much like game 1, but the Giants have had enough success against Oswalt (relatively speaking, he never shuts them down but handles the Giants well) and Sanchez has been able to shut them down (and recently) that I think the Giants have a very good chance of winning this game. But it should be another close game unless a lot of mistakes are made.
Game 3: Cole Hamels vs. Cain
Cole Hamels was his stellar self again, after a blip last season (probably celebrated too much after 2008 World Series and didn't prepare well enough, understandable at his age). He has a horrible career in AT&T, 6.12 ERA, and it has gotten worse each year, his best game out of the four he has pitched was his first start there in 2007, and even then he gave up 3 runs (5 ER) in 7 IP. His peripherals look great - high K/9, high K/BB, no homer ever given up, just a lot of hits given up - so that would suggest that it was all bad luck. And four starts, it is a small sample. Still, you have to wonder, if he could not handle the Giants in late April this season, when Burrell, Posey, Torres were not regular starters and Huff had not started hitting like he has since, then why should he be able to handle them now?
Cain kept his performance level with his breakout last season, this season. He is Hamels equal for all intents and purposes. A key thing is he has a 2.93 ERA at home, so he is much tougher at home than on the road (though still good, 3.35 ERA). Another key thing is that while people may look at his career ERA against the Phillies and think that they will beat up on him (6.23 ERA in 5 starts), but if you look deeper, he has actually pitched well against them the past two seasons, after he figured out to be a better pitcher, while pitching horribly in his early years. He has a 2.77 ERA the past two seasons, great peripherals, usual Cain stats: OK K's, now low walks (his big change), and very few hits.
As most games in this series will be, should be a close game, tight game, but I would have to lean towards Cain for this matchup, because it is in SF but if there is a game 7, right now I would lean towards Hamel, as he has pitched well against the Giants in the past in Philly (3.41 ERA there, though oddly enough, and thus good for Giants favor, last year, his bad year, he shut them out there, but this year, against our best players in August - the Sanchez game - he only lasted 5 IP with 3 ER, just giving up too many hits, otherwise good game peripherals-wise).
Game 4: Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner (both penciled in)
Neither team appears to want to use their top starter (Halladay and Lincecum) on 3-days rest to start this game, but both managers demured on that, saying that this start is only penciled in. Most probably, if either team is down 0-3, their ace will start, but given the history of pitcher usage during division player (few pitchers ever pitch with 3 days rest, and only twice in last 19 years, and the last time in championship series was in 1992. So mostly likely we will see this matchup.
Blanton has pitched OK against the Giants in SF, but very poorly overall, suggesting that he might have been very lucky in SF. Horrible peripherals, in any case. He is probably getting this start because he shut them down in August in Philly, but he has had a horrible season overall. However, his peripherals have been pretty good overall, so one could chalk this up to a bad BABIP (.324) season. So he could give a good game for them.
Bumgarner, however, has been a co-ace with Sanchez the past 6 weeks, compiling a 1.13 ERA in the final stretch of the season, then shutting down the Braves in the playoffs IN HIS FIRST MLB PLAYOFF EVER AT AGE 21. And he's our 4th starter! Could be a close game, but I would be disappointed if we lose this game, this matchup should be a gimme to the Giants, but you never know how things work out in the playoffs.
Giants Thoughts
Should be an even series. As I've been saying, pitching at the highest levels trumps hitting, and we have four of the best starters in the majors vs. their three. As I noted in last post, this ordering currently would match up twice Lincecum-Halladay, Sanchez-Oswalt, Cain-Hamels. We should split those games, on paper, as the Giants have been playing well against the better teams down the stretch, shutting down good offenses, even in Colorado and Arizona.
That leaves game 4 to settle the tie, and I think Bumgarner takes Blanton probably 7-8 times out of 10. But this is one game, so the Giants chances rely on the starters keeping their laser focus that they have had the past 6 weeks and shutting down all opposition to 3 runs or less, and seeing how the offense does. The starters kept it up during the playoffs, but the bullpen needs to rise to their September standards and not falter as they did against Atlanta. If they can live the motto - "Fear the Beard" - the Giants should have a very good chance of winning the NLCS and get into the World Series.
Obviously, the offense will need to contribute as well. I think Burrell's and Rowand's knowledge of the Phillies will help our team battle from both ends, but particularly in how the hitters should approach playing in Citizen Bank Park. We need Torres and Posey to start hitting like they did during the season, but as I noted, Posey might be gassed and playing in adrenaline - the week rest will be most helpful I think. Sanchez, Torres and Sandoval need to get over their jitters and hit like they did at their best. Ross needs to continue his good performance and Burrell needs to lead the way in Philly. Huff appeared to be getting over his jitters in the last game, so hopefully will continue in this series. Uribe has reportedly been gassed too, and hopefully this rest will help him too.
Still, it will be pitching and fielding that drives the Giants success or failure in this series. I think it helped facing a limping Braves team, which gave our playoff newbies a chance to get their jitters out of the way, as needed (obviously our starting pitchers handled it well). Hopefully they can hit more freely now that they have that under their belt, but the Phillies pitchers are better than the Braves, who were already pretty good themselves. That could be our tipping point in terms of success, whether the hitters can get into their place of comfort and like like they can. If they can, and I will point to Huff, Torres, and Sandoval as key hitters to get out of their funk (Citizen Bank Park favors left-handed hitters), then I think they have a good chance of getting into the World Series - not a likely chance but a good chance. I will take that given that this is the group's first NLCS.
And I believe that this will pay off in future seasons when the Giants make the NLCS again (and again) with their stellar pitching staff, and nicely developing lineup led by Posey and Sandoval.
Friday, September 03, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 74-60: Put D-gers Out of Their Misery
Ugly wins against Colorado, but the starting pitching came through and a horrible loss on Monday was matched with an inspiring win on Wednesday as payback, for a nice, hard-fought series win against Colorado. Now they face LA for three in LA.
LA has had a weird season in that while they have beat up on their NL West competitors (30-18), they have sucked against the teams the NL West teams took care of (38-48). But the Giants are even with them, 6-6, each 3-3 at home and on the road. And the D-gers have been fading since the All-Star break, they have not won one series against a playoff contender (splitting only one of them), and having been hovering around .500 since their big losing streak late July and early August.
Time for the Giants to step up and push down the fading D-gers into the gutter. However, they will face three great pitchers in this series, so the Giants will have to work hard in order to win the series. Not an impossible task but not easy either.
Game 1: Chad Billingsley vs. Zito
MLB Notes:
Given the history, have to call it even, but with a strong lean towards Billingsley because he has been pitching well and Zito has not. Zito will have to come up big for us to win this game, hopefully the past few disaster starts was because he was trying too hard again and thinking too much.
Beat LA!
The Giants will have another tough series, another tough team to beat for a series win. And overall, it looks like the D-gers will win the series. But the Giants have done it this season, more often than not, so I would not count them out.
And the D-gers have negative momentum on their side. They are losers of 4 of their last 5 games, and as I noted, losers against every playoff contender since the All-Star break. And the Giants have won 5 of the last 6 games between the teams, as LA beat on us early in the season, but then the Giants returned the favor, so momentum is on our side now. Our best chance will be if either Zito or Sanchez can step up and pitch a great game. And we might win another game on Darren Ford's speed on the basepaths.
LA has had a weird season in that while they have beat up on their NL West competitors (30-18), they have sucked against the teams the NL West teams took care of (38-48). But the Giants are even with them, 6-6, each 3-3 at home and on the road. And the D-gers have been fading since the All-Star break, they have not won one series against a playoff contender (splitting only one of them), and having been hovering around .500 since their big losing streak late July and early August.
Time for the Giants to step up and push down the fading D-gers into the gutter. However, they will face three great pitchers in this series, so the Giants will have to work hard in order to win the series. Not an impossible task but not easy either.
Game 1: Chad Billingsley vs. Zito
MLB Notes:
Giants: Zito has worked a season-low 3 2/3 innings in his past two starts, allowing a combined 14 runs (12 earned) and 13 hits in those outings. Zito traditionally has thrived in September, posting a 25-14 record with a 3.71 ERA in that month.
D-gers: Billingsley hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start since July 16, and he's gone fewer than six innings just once in the same span. In the start he didn't go six, he went 5 2/3. Billingsley had control issues last outing, when he walked five.Unfortunately, it does not look good for the Giants because Zito has been crap in his last few starts. Still, he has a 3.12 ERA in Dodger Stadium, and a 1.84 ERA against them in LA this season. Billingsley, however, has been very good against the Giants, with a 3.32 ERA against them in LA (oddly enough, he has a better ERA in SF).
Given the history, have to call it even, but with a strong lean towards Billingsley because he has been pitching well and Zito has not. Zito will have to come up big for us to win this game, hopefully the past few disaster starts was because he was trying too hard again and thinking too much.
Beat LA!
Game 2: Ted Lilly vs. Cain
Giants: Cain showed his characteristic toughness in his last start, against Arizona, working out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the first without any runs scoring. He lasted 6 1/3 innings, allowing three runs, and received a no-decision in a 9-7 win.
D-gers: Lilly finally lost a start last time out, against Colorado, when he let up seven runs in four innings. He's 5-1 as a Dodger, but he hasn't pitched well against the Giants in five career starts: despite a 3-1 record, he has a 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Another tough matchup. But Cain has had a history of pitching well against and in LA, although he only won his first game against then this season. Lilly has pitched well in D-ger Blue, but the Giants have beat up on him before, though it is different now, this is in D-ger Stadium, one of the most extreme pitcher's park there is in the majors. I will have to call it even, with a slight lean to Cain since the Giants have beat on Lilly before.
Beat LA!
Beat LA!
Game 3: Hiroki Kuroda vs. Sanchez
Giants: Sanchez has pitched into the ninth in two of his past three starts, including last Monday vs. Colorado, when he had a shutout through eight before the Giants fell, 2-1. But Sanchez has continued to alternate a good start with a bad one.
D-gers: Kuroda's gone at least seven innings in five straight starts but is just 2-1 in that span. He no-hit the Phillies for 7 1/3 innings in his last start, a seven-strikeout, 7 2/3-inning performance. He's been better at home (3.15 ERA) than away (3.69).
Doesn't look good for Giants. Sanchez has never had a good game against LA in LA. If he can do it this game, it would be the first time he had a good start there. The only hope right now is that he has not pitched in LA this season, it was in prior seasons that he sucked there. Given his outburst earlier about catching the 'Dres, hopefully he can deliver in this start against our arch-nemesis.
It won't be easy. Kuroda has been pitching well, especially in his last start, no-hitting the Phillies potent lineup. However, he has a 11.74 ERA against the Giants in LA, though that was in 2008, he was very good against them last season and hasn't faced them this season. He is having another good season, even better than before.
I will have to call it even, since neither pitcher has appeared able to figure out the other team when facing them in LA, but lean towards Kuroda, who has generally been better than Sanchez. Jonathan needs to step up in this game.
Beat LA!
It won't be easy. Kuroda has been pitching well, especially in his last start, no-hitting the Phillies potent lineup. However, he has a 11.74 ERA against the Giants in LA, though that was in 2008, he was very good against them last season and hasn't faced them this season. He is having another good season, even better than before.
I will have to call it even, since neither pitcher has appeared able to figure out the other team when facing them in LA, but lean towards Kuroda, who has generally been better than Sanchez. Jonathan needs to step up in this game.
Beat LA!
Giants Thoughts
The Giants will have another tough series, another tough team to beat for a series win. And overall, it looks like the D-gers will win the series. But the Giants have done it this season, more often than not, so I would not count them out.
And the D-gers have negative momentum on their side. They are losers of 4 of their last 5 games, and as I noted, losers against every playoff contender since the All-Star break. And the Giants have won 5 of the last 6 games between the teams, as LA beat on us early in the season, but then the Giants returned the favor, so momentum is on our side now. Our best chance will be if either Zito or Sanchez can step up and pitch a great game. And we might win another game on Darren Ford's speed on the basepaths.
I think one advantage of the Giants versus the other playoff contenders is that they have 3 days off in September, whereas other teams had less, only 1 or 2 days. For example, the Phillies and the D-Rox had to spend their off-day yesterday playing each other in Colorado, flying out of their way to get there. It was actually in the middle of a road trip to SF then SD, which normally would be an easier trip, but now had to fly from SF for a game in Colorado then fly quickly out to SD. Their next rest is on September 16, August 26 was their last rest, so they will have played 20 straight days/games between rests.
The Phillies did not suffer as much as they were headed home anyway, but still, one less day of rest, though they still have three days off still in September. However, they get to play a double header on the 6th, which means that some of their regulars won't be in both games, plus they lost yesterday's rest, so they could be tired for the series against Milwaukee and Florida. But they are hard to figure out, as they got swept by the Astros in 4 games at home, then went on the road and won 6 of 7 against SD, LA, and COL. Hopefully the Brewers and Marlins can take it to them like the Astros did.
Krukow's Thoughts
The Phillies did not suffer as much as they were headed home anyway, but still, one less day of rest, though they still have three days off still in September. However, they get to play a double header on the 6th, which means that some of their regulars won't be in both games, plus they lost yesterday's rest, so they could be tired for the series against Milwaukee and Florida. But they are hard to figure out, as they got swept by the Astros in 4 games at home, then went on the road and won 6 of 7 against SD, LA, and COL. Hopefully the Brewers and Marlins can take it to them like the Astros did.
Krukow's Thoughts
Krukow said on the radio today that the chemistry in the clubhouse tells him the Giants will win the division by 4 games. We all know he's a rah-rah homer, but I thought I would put this out there. And that would be tough, they have 30 games left, and a .500 record would leave them at 91-71 and the Giants needing 95 wins and going 21-7.
Given how poorly they have played, if they played very poorly and, say, finished 10-20, they would be 86-76, and the Giants only have to go 16-12 to win by 4 games. If they finished 13-17, they would be 89-73, and the Giants would need to go 19-9.
Winning by 4 does not seem doable, but winning the title seems doable if the 'Dres finish .500 or below for the month: Giants need to go 18-10 if 'Dres finish .500, 13-15 if 10-20, 16-12 if 13-17. But that is a big if, as they have not had one month this season under .500.
Given how poorly they have played, if they played very poorly and, say, finished 10-20, they would be 86-76, and the Giants only have to go 16-12 to win by 4 games. If they finished 13-17, they would be 89-73, and the Giants would need to go 19-9.
Winning by 4 does not seem doable, but winning the title seems doable if the 'Dres finish .500 or below for the month: Giants need to go 18-10 if 'Dres finish .500, 13-15 if 10-20, 16-12 if 13-17. But that is a big if, as they have not had one month this season under .500.
He also said that Lincecum is back, shedding the doubt of August. As I noted in my PQS post, he has clearly been improving, start by start, culminating in his last start. Kruk feels that once a pitcher gets the doubt out of your mind, then you can get on a good run. That's great because we can use one from Lincecum, heck, all of our starters.
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