Huff Aftermath: Batting Cleanup, Merkin DFAed

In the aftermath of the news that Huff was signed, in his press conference after he was offically signed (as reported by many, but here's a link to Baggarly's version which was more comprehensive) a number of things were announced. Plus, today, it as reported by the Chronicle's John Shea that Merkin Valdez was DFAed to open up a spot for Huff. In the conference call:

• Big news: Huff is batting cleanup. I guess they don't want to pressure Sandoval and according to the lineup analyzer, that switch won't cost the offense much, if any. Huff is also viewed as a legit cleanup hitter, based on what he has done in his career.
• As expected, he'll be the starting 1B which sets the starting defense with Sandoval at 3B, DeRosa in LF, and Uribe, as expected, in his super-utility but really super-backup in case anybody is injured or performing badly.
• Also big news: Huff is playing everyday. I'll bet it's a concession to him to get him to sign plus they don't really have a platoon partner to go with him, and even if they did, then they would have to explain why they are keeping Ishikawa on the roster. And as Bochy noted, he doesn't envision it being a platoon, but I would note that things will change in the regular season based on circumstances.
• Top five hitters: Rowand, Sanchez, Sandoval, Huff, DeRosa. Bochy prefers his best all-around hitter batting third (the lineup analyzer would disagree about putting Sandoval third, as that leads to less runs being batted in - probably because a large percentage of the time he will come to bat with two outs already and nobody on or man on 1B - though more runs scored, because of the hitters behind).
• Baggerly hit the nail on the head that Valdez was the player designated (he's not gone until another team claims him) since Sabean said that he is next working on a free-agent reliever.
• The savings on Huff relative to the 2 year, $17M reported offer for LaRoche opens up payroll to get other free agents. Sabean noted, "It was a good twist of fate as things turned out where other avenues ended up not being pursued. This ended up being our best option and we’re glad it turned out this way.” From what I read somewhere, the Giants did not consider Huff until after LaRoche turned down their offer, and was pleasantly surprised when they investigated Huff. More Sabean: "The more we examined what he has done and what we need, we thought this would be a good fit. He’s a fourth hitter who’s been a run producer and quite frankly he’s got the track record we were looking for. Even in a down year he drove in 85 runs which is something we needed. I just saw him in Arizona. He looks in good shape, ready to go.”
• Sabean said the Giants are still looking for a catcher and a reliever, but doesn't "anticipate" signing another starting pitcher to allow Bumgarner to begin in AAA. "I don't know that the fifth starter will fit the bill as much as there might be some interesting relief choices to give us more presence." Bumgarner looks ready and by TINSTAAPP, once a pitcher is ready, it is a waste of his arm to have him throw in the minors. Still, there was talk of him being a reliever, so I would say that there is some odds that the Giants might change course and sign a starter and have Bumgarner pitch in relief.
• Sabean is convinced a catcher will fall to the Giants: "The catcher's market is remarkably still evolving. There will probably be somebody left without a place to go that we can turn to. We are willing to go to (rookie Buster) Posey but we are keeping an open mind. We’ll revisit as we go along."
• Bochy noted that RF is an open competition and Schierholtz and Bowker were mentioned while Lewis was not. Makes sense, Lewis was not very good looking defensively in LF (if statistically good because he's competing against a lot of stiffs in LF) and RF is even tougher.

Giants Thoughts

As I noted, I like the deal, though I would have gone with Ishikawa, but Huff is more of a sure bet to produce at 1B and is a proven cleanup hitter and that is what we need. And he has been OK defensively at 1B, and playing everyday there should help him improve there as well. He seems like a nice guy, a jokester, from the snippet of the interview he gave on the Razor and Mr. T show on KNBR yesterday, so he should add to the clubhouse I think.

Valdez, as much as I would like to give him another chance, he had a horrible 2009 season and he was already off the team possibly anyhow with Waldis Joaquin's emergence. The bullpen was already set with Wilson, Affeldt, Romo, Runzler, Medders, and a longman, either Martinez or Pucetas. Valdez would have been competing with Joaquin for that last spot. And if we could get another good reliever, that would make the bullpen unit pretty bullet-proof.

The lineup, as I noted, with Sandoval 3rd and Huff 4th does not suffer much if any from the switch, depending on the forecaster used. Bill James forecast results in a 4.6 RS lineup while the CHONE forecast results in a 4.5 RS lineup. The former with last year's defense results in 95 wins, the latter in 93 wins.

El Lefty Malo feels that the defense overall cannot be the same but I don't agree entirely or rather that I think that is missing the Big Picture. Fielding is worse, but I think the pitching staff overall can improve or at least mitigate the loss in fielding. And the bigger picture is that the offense, at even 4.50 runs vs. the 4.06 of last season, would score an additional 71 runs. I don't think the defense would be that much worse, last year they gave up 377 runs, that would be almost 20% increase in runs allowed to negate the gains in offense. I can see losing 1 win for DeRosa, 2 wins for Huff, and 1 win for the rest defensively for 4 wins lost or 40 runs, roughly 10% increase.

Given all that, I think 90 wins is a good target for the Giants to shoot for and reach and be competitive for the division title:

• The D-gers lost Wolf, a major cog of their rotation and they should not be able to replace him easily. Pineiro is the best remaining and at his career numbers, the D-gers give up 28 more runs or 0.17 per game, which will cost them about 4 wins, putting them around 91. If they don't get him, then they lose even more and Manny isn't getting any younger either and Pierre, as horrible as he can be, was a good replacement for Manny in 2009 but now he's gone.
• Colorado lost Jason Marquis, second best starter on their rotation, but bring back Jeff Francis, who missed all of 2009, and wasn't as good as Marquis before that and he'll be 29 in 2010. That should cost them a couple of games, which would put them at 90 wins.
• Arizona made a whole bunch of changes (including reportedly signing LaRoche for $5.5M) plus will be adding back two players out in 2009 in Webb and Jackson. Still, they only won 70 games in 2009, I don't really see them adding 20 games even with their additions (and losses, they traded away two good young pitchers as well as got two older but still young starters in Jackson and Kennedy).
• The 'Dres could surprise in 2010, I like their young players coming up, they are waiting for them to firm up and produce, they could be competitive and they won 75 games last season, not far from a .500 season. But I don't see them competing either without much better pitching, which is not a forte of their farm system.

Our main competitors lost major cogs in their pitching rotations while adding no one of consequence yet while the Giants lost no major cogs (Molina might have been our cleanup hitter, but he was a drag on our offense) plus might gain one or two (Huff, DeRosa, Posey, Bumgarner, Sanchez), but many don't think the Giants can compete?

If you can't be satisfied with an 88 win season with possibilities for better after a number of losing seasons, just because we ended up in 3rd, I can't help you. I am going to enjoy the 2010 season, I am going to enjoy the next decade, as the Giants have the ingredients to be competing during this decade, the 10's. In baseball today, that is the best you can ask for, to be competitive year in, year out, and if you can't realize that and enjoy the team, oh well, too bad for you.

Giants News of the Day

Besides the Rule 5 Draft today where we picked up fireballing reliever Luis Perdomo, we have some other Giants news to report:

• One reason Perdomo was selected was because Merkin Valdez is going to have surgery again (see report on sfgiants.com). Wow, he's 27 now and felt tightness in his forearm (not similar to Lowry's ailment but it sounds like similar stuff) while pitching in winter league. He's going under the knife on Monday, with rehab to last 6-8 weeks (Baggarly had reported 4-6 weeks), allowing him to be on the mound and "somewhat" competitive when spring training starts. It is a "pain issue as opposed to compressed nerves," which was Lowry's problem.
• Wow, the Cards got Perdomo and cash for former phenom pitching prospect Anthony Reyes, so now the Cards end up with nothing for him. I wonder why they left him unprotected, given how good his stats were. Reyes was the Card's Matt Cain, but while Cain has gone well, Reyes could never figure it out.
• Info on Perdomo from Tidrow, as reported in the link above: "Perdomo possesses two above-average pitches -- a fastball that ranges between 93-95 mph and a slider. Perdomo's currently trying to refine his changeup while pitching for Aguilas in the Dominican Winter League...the reports are [good]"
• Giants have offered Jack Taschner a contract, which is part of the process of keeping the arbitration-eligible lefty reliever. Sabean recognizes Tasch's value: "He just needs to pitch in a spot in the pecking order where he can relax and have some success. He's been overexposed a little bit. And to have three lefties, including him, really helps. Not many teams can do that."
• The Giants are one of the teams that Randy Johnson is particularly interested in joining, according to a report by the Chron's John Shea. As Sabean noted, "He can still pitch. He's an intimidating force." The Big Unit is favoring teams that train in Arizona, where he lives, NL teams, competitive teams. Barry Meister, one of his agents, noted: "Randy's really interested... We made a check list of everything that's important, and San Francisco checks off on every box.... San Francisco has a lot of appeal." As for the A's, "We're just trying to keep our options open." Ouch! Apparently, the Rangers are interested and wooing him with Nolan Ryan, an old buddy. Unless Ryan is going to room with him, I don't see how friendship is going to lure Johnson to Texas.
• Haven't reported it yet, but the Giants have decided that they now again considering re-signing Rich Aurilia, after first saying they might later, then no, and now thinking about it again. It makes sense: at first, they wanted to take care of other things first before thinking about Aurilia, then they thought they were getting close to getting a corner infielder (probably 3B since they originally said Sandoval was at 1B) so they thought they didn't need him, then once that died, that's when they made the recent announcement (which I also didn't report) that they would be happy with starting 2009 with Ishikawa at 1B and Sandoval at 3B (which set off a firestorm among Giants fans). This way, should either falter or need a "break", or either case, need a platoon buddy (this way, for example, he could alternate between 1B and 3B when there is a lefty starter, giving Sandoval and Ishikawa, who both don't hit LHP well, some AB, but not a lot of AB, against LHP.
• Ugh, super agent Scott Boras said his client 3B Joe Crede, who has a history of back problems, including one that ended his 2008 season early, could be an option, saying he's healthy (what else is he going to say?) and even sending Crede's medical records to teh Giants. Luckily, the rumor doesn't say that the Giants are interested, just that Boras is, in Sabean-speak, kicking the tires and doing his due diligence.
• And if you live under a rock, CC Sabathia was so important that Brian Cashman flew to negotiate personally with CC in Vallejo during the important Winter Meetings, and came away with a new ace starter for a 7 year, $161M contract (that works out to $23M per year, which is greater than the $22.9M that Santana got).
• And Sabean ripped the local media a new one for making it seem like the Giants were heavily into Sabathia when there was actually very little happening. While the media was at fault for that, and I sympathize with Sabean, this is the 21st Century and Neukom set Sabean and the Giants up for that by not committing publicly to a payroll figure, which would stop Giants fans from dreaming about getting, say, a Teixeira, with the "money" the Giants would have used on Sabathia.
• Neukom will have to learn about the consequences of dealing with the media, and speak more strategically to let the fans know enough but not everything, and Sabean will have to get used to the 21st Century. For example, in this case, say the budget is around $85M again, and if you do expand the budget, as Neukom has said he would for the right player, you just say that you couldn't pass him up. People would be just happy the payroll was expanded and not ask "hey, but you went over the budget!"

Giants Lineup

I took the ZIP projections for the Giants, that's available off of Dan Szymborski's website, Baseball Think Factory, and calculated what the projected lineup and pitching staff would do based on his projections. He's actually quite complementary of the Giants and Sabean (for once).

The lineup, as Bochy had expounded, with Burriss would score 4.01 runs per game, while with Frandsen, it would score 4.10 runs per game. The pitching staff would have an ERA of 3.97 overall, though that is without Perdomo's stats in there, I assumed that Misch is the #5 starter (obviously big improvement if we do sign Johnson) and the bullpen is composed of Wilson, Howry, Affeldt, Romo, Taschner, and Matos (the best ERAs projected).

That works out to 82 wins with Burriss starting, 84 wins with Frandsen starting (don't have true RS and RA; but lineup forecast should not be including error related runs and neither does the pitching ERA since, well, it's the ERA. Based on the projections for the pitching staff, the ZIP projection was for 85 wins (using winning percentage for 162 games). In 2008, the D-gers won with only 84 wins, and that was only after making the big trade to get Manny; they were scuffling at .500 before that. In addition, they have lost much of their rotation to free agency, plus one to injury, as well as possibly losing Manny. And the rest of the division is retrenching and selling off their best players (Colorado and Padres) or letting them go for nothing in return, which should hurt them too (D-backs and Dunn). The Giants, as is, looks like a division winner based on the numbers from the ZIPS projections, which I've always considered to be very conservative (that is, too low).

FYI: substituting in Johnson for Misch, it works out to 3.90 ERA, 83 wins, 85 wins, and 87 wins.

Fangraphs have both Marcel and Bill James projections up, so I will compile those as well and see what the win totals are using those stats. But I thought this would be good, one, because the data is all in one place (almost), and two, since I consider them conservative, this would be, at least theoretically, the worse case scenario.

The Magician Making Magic Again

Merkin Valdez has had a long and torturous history as a Giants player. A secondary player in the Russ Ortiz trade to the Braves, as Damian Moss was suppose to be the key player but fizzled out, he set Giants fans' hearts a flutter with his fastball and a lot of strikeouts. He was so good that at one point he got the nickname of "The Magician".

But despite various pronouncements, he didn't rise as fast as hyped nor did he even make it up to the upper levels without needing to be converted to relief, as he was suppose to be the future ace starter in Giants fans minds, though at least he was used as a closer in AAA. Sabean had set the hype in motion a few years ago when, in a pre-season interview, he listed Valdez as a prospect who could make a significant contribution to the team that season - obviously, that didn't happen.

Then the whispers of the need for Tommy John surgery emerged. Baseball America reported it in August of 2005, but then had to retract it when there was no confirmation. Then Valdez had a horrible 2006 and the Giants finally had him do TJS, which wiped out his 2007.

Which brings us to today. Out of options, Valdez was basically on the bubble but had a great spring training to remove any doubts whether or not he belongs on the 25 man roster. Of course, as a reliever, it is what have you done for me lately, and Merkin has continued to do well during the regular season thus far, opening up some eyes with his emergency start the other day. In 2 innings pitched against the D-gers, he had 4 strikeouts, striking out the side to start the game.

Bochy noted, as reported in most media accounts, "I see him sooner rather than later, as a guy helping out in the late innings." As reported by Andrew Baggarly in the April 5th Merc, "one major league scout said he considered Valdez one of the four premier arms in the organization, along with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson."

His emergence couldn't have come at a better time. Brad Hennessey was suppose to be the 7th inning bridge to Walker and Wilson, plus helping out with late game duties, but has been horrible in two outings thus far. Never a flamethrower to begin with, relying on off-speed stuff, his velocity is down around 4 MPH this season, as reported by Andrew Baggarly on April 5th.

Giants Thoughts

It has been a long time coming for Merkin, so this has been very encouraging thus far. If he does move into late game situations, that would make our bullpen that much stronger, with Valdez and Wilson shutting down the opposition with flames coming out of their pitches. That's the type of shutdown bullpen you need with the great starters we have in our rotation, and should result in a huge improvement in the Giants won/loss record in close games this year.

Of course, first, they have to start scoring more regularly to win, but people forget that D-ger Stadium is one of the most extreme pitchers park in the majors, topped probably by only San Diego's and Detroit's stadiums, so any team's offensive weakness would only be magnified there. I don't think we will get a good view of the team's offensive capabilities until we get a month's worth of games under the belt. And despite the cries of fans over the starting vets, I expect the young players to get plenty of play all season long.

Take a Chance on Me: Jerome Williams

The news the other day was that Jerome Williams came around, hat in hand, trying to get another chance with another team during spring training. He was willing to even start all the way down in A-ball.

What Andrew Baggarly of the Merc mentioned too was that Jerome was a svelte 230 pounds, 40 pounds less than his weight the last time he was a Giants player. No wonder the Giants traded him, he was ballooning up and wasn't listening to the Giants brass so they ditched him.

Jerome Williams was one pitcher I was pinning a lot of hopes on as he rose through the system. Ainsworth I liked more but he always seemed to get injured, for one thing or another. He kept on doing well as he climbed and, at one time, I recall one of the mainstream baseball writers (can't remember if blog or published) compared his accomplishments with Dwight Gooden, and how Jerome's comparables were mostly highly accomplished pitchers.

Then he had his great first season, and lo, here was our next ace, who would pair up very nicely with Jason Schmidt in the rotation. I thought we were going to have a great rotation because all the word I always heard about Jerome was how mature he was, that he had a good makeup. Unfortunately, that was a lot of hooey, as it is clear now that he ate his way out of baseball.

Out of sentimental reasons, I would like to see the Giants give him a chance down that low. (That's why I'm glad they signed Foppert too). At that level, he shouldn't be holding back any of our real prospects. And if he really is in shape and capable of pitching well again in the majors, that only adds to the pitching staff and makes it that much more stronger. I don't see him taking a position on the rotation, but he should be pretty good coming in relief. He can rear back and use his best stuff instead of holding back like when he was a starter and pacing himself. Plus I wouldn't trust that he won't relapse once he is successful again, so a reliever is easier to replace than a starter.

Other News

Lots of other news bits:

• Nate Schierholtz was sent down to AAA. It was clear he wasn't going to make it, but he got sent down this early because the rules say he has to stay down there 10 days, and the Giants want to be able to bring him back up to the majors if, for some reason, the Giants need an OF by opening day. Could a trade of an OF be in the works? Perhaps to get a 3B.
• Sabean had an odd way of talking about sending Nate down, due mostly to the fact that he still has options and Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis, and Dan Ortmeier didn't: "He's the victim of the rule, really. It's a matter of keeping our inventory." How's that for being a piece of meat, bought and sold.
• Also going down to Fresno with Nate are Travis Ishikawa (finally!), Travis Denker (skips horrible Dodd Stadium, lucky him), and Billy Sadler. In addition, they reassigned Emmanuel Burriss, Ivan Ochoa, and Victor Santos to the minor league camp.
• Swimming upstream is Ryan Rohlinger 3B of Level A Augusta, who was brought back to the major league camp, after coming up for single games at a time, and the Giants are serious about giving him a chance to win the 3B job. He hit for a ton of power in A-ball, but not much for average, so he looks to be a low (very low, Mendoza level of badness) average hitter who can hit for some power.
• On that note, Eugenio Velez apparently has made the 25 man starting day roster, and is in the running for the 3B position as well. He had a good spring and forced the team to consider him.
• Falling down in the running during the spring was Dan Ortmeier for 1B, though the Giants at least realize that part of his struggles were because of the difficulties of a crash course learning how to play 1B. However, he has started getting hot again, getting a homer in his last game. But right now it looks like Rich Aurilia will get 1B, which leaves 3B open to a number of candidates: Frandsen, Rohlinger, Velez.
• The rotation looks like Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Correia, in that order so that Zito would not pitch right after him. Misch will probably be the first or second to be called up from AAA.
• The bullpen is full of surprises. Kline is doing horribly and could be traded or even released. Messenger was waived the other day and cleared so the Giants sent him down to the majors. They are very seriously considering Erick Threets, who had done OK this spring, and is also out of options. Merkin Valdez is showing his magic again and looks like he will get a spot. Jack Taschner has had a superb spring training, and probably got another spot even though he still has an option for the season and the other pitchers have no options.
• The Giants have announced a change in size, with the bullpen having seven pitchers now: Brian Wilson, Tyler Walker (who learned the split-finger fastball over the off-season), Brad Hennessey, Vinnie Chulk, Jack Taschner, and Merkin Valdez plus the seventh guy.

Giants Fire Sale: Addendum

MLB Trade Rumors quotes Jayson Stark's take on the fire sale rumor that confirms the Ken Rosenthal article. Where's there smoke, there's a fire sale. His article provides three additional names to the list: Tyler Walker, Rajai Davis, and Merkin Valdez. It also includes the usual suspects: Durham, Aurilia, Winn, and Kline.

I had speculated on Davis being on the list but totally missed Walker and Valdez. I saw Hennessey being the one to be traded, but Walker credentials are almost that of Hennessey in that he has served in all the roles of the bullpen, he just hasn't started much, if any. So, in terms of value, he could be near that of Hennessey, even though he's many years older and just recovering from TJS.

But given the clear statement by the Giants that Hennessey is not starting, then I don't see why Walker and not also Hennessey. They are only really necessary if the Giants are really serious about competing in 2008, not so much if it is a rebuilding year. Perhaps the Giants think they can get more for Walker than for Hennessey. Or maybe they simply think that he won't be good enough, long enough, so may as well see what they can get for him today. If they don't get offered enough, they can simply pull him off the table then.

Valdez I am surprised by, especially since he is doing well this spring training. Maybe they are just doing a switch and bait with him on the list, to get a feel for how much teams are willing to give up for him plus get the team on the phone and talk them into another player. Maybe he still does something the Giants don't think will work out in the long run, much like how they gave up on Jerome Williams so fast, faster than fans (including myself) were willing to, but ultimately they have been correct, Williams and Aardsma have not amounted to much, and they at least got some usefulness out of Hawkins and Kline.

Still, surprising to see his name there. After all this waiting, I want to see what we got, not trade him away. I would only be happy getting an interesting position prospect for him. Though I guess I would be OK with another starting pitcher prospect who is semi-decent.

About Davis, another thought just popped in: perhaps Bowker is opening the eyes of the Giants brass this spring, and they are thinking of jumping him to the majors to platoon with Roberts. He isn't hitting particularly well in terms of results, but maybe they are impressed by how well he is swinging.

Or it could be that they are looking at Davis's horrendous September stats and realizing that he was just really lucky in August when they got him, he is just not that good a hitter, so trade Davis now, while his value is high, and try out someone else in platoon with Roberts.

Again, there is no Dave Roberts on the list. I know a lot of fans want him gone instead of Winn, but really, he's the one who mkes the most sense for the Giants going forward, both in terms of lead-off abilities and allowing a young player or two to get significant playing time, plus the fact that we would get more back in a trade from Winn than we would from Roberts. And he has some skills that are plus, whereas Winn is plus nowhere, he is just Mr. Average.

And that's not a knock, just the truth. That is because even an average player is worth something in baseball, the average player is still much better than the so-called replacement level player who are on the margins of baseball. And even the best teams don't have stars at every position, they need average players to complement the good players.

Fire Sales, per the comments made on the other post, don't necessarily mean that you sell off all your good players. It could mean clearing out the deadwood that gets in the way of the new growth, the young players. And before spring training, Durham and Aurilia probably had very little value, given how poorly they did in 2007, so a good showing thus far makes them all shining and, well, not new, but gritty vets with something left to prove. And spring is the time for injurie to crop up, making teams suddenly need players, perhaps, like Durham or Aurilia.

For example, Aurilia would fit in nicely with LA right now, given LaRoche's recent injury, and provide coverage at 3B in case Nomar gets injured again, plus if LaRoche takes longer to recover (or alternatively, they don't have to rush him back), and at worse he's the uber-utility guy across the infield again. Guys who can play multiple positions are especially coveted these days because of the expanded bullpens and 5 man rotations.

And Chicago has been getting dry humped over and over again by the Orioles regarding Brian Roberts, maybe they get tired and pick up Durham again, he's a known quantity, he's from Chicago White Sox before, so the fans know him, and he is good when he is hitting well, and he has been hitting very well this spring. Or any AL team who needs a better DH, Durham could do that as well.

Giants of the Future: Augusta

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury had a really nice article on Villalona and the nice team the Giants are assembling at the Level A team, the Augusta Greenjackets of the Sally League (South Atlantic League). But read it fast, it will be gone in about 4 days from now.

For those who get the newspaper, there is a great picture of Villalona in there. It makes it very clear why the Giants are moving him to first base, he is Ginormous! The other pictures I've seen of him must have been taken from a very good angle, because he just looked big, but this picture really makes it clear that the Giants have to move him to 1B. After all, he's only 17 and still growing!!! Felipe Alou claims that it is just baby fat, and that he will grow out of it. I will just have to accept his word on that.

In any case, too bad he's probably moving to 1B because we have no one who is ready to take on 3B plus the best position prospects available to us at the #5 pick of the amateur draft this season are firstbasemen. Not that he wouldn't be valuable there too, just it would make our future lineup more clearer. Now we have a question mark at 3B for the future.

But what a nice looking future it is shaping out to be, here on the field in Augusta this spring and summer. Angel Villalona at 1B. Nick Noonan at 2B. Charlier Culberson at SS. Wendell Fairley in CF. Madison Bumgarner at SP, plus maybe Tim Alderson. There is some good info on them, but mostly about Noonan and Villalona:

• Noonan: He has the best strike-zone judgment of any Giants position prospect, according to some coaches. The Giants feel that Noonan's baseball acumen is so off the charts that they even put him on the travel roster for a Cactus League game last week. (Note: they might do the same with Villalona later this spring.)
• Villalona: Lots of quotes by and about him, so I thought it would be easier to just quote them from Baggarly's good article.
  

  Though he signed as a third baseman, Villalona - who is 6-foot-3 and appears
  well beyond his listed weight of 200 pounds - is working at first base and is
  expected to play there at Augusta.
  "I think I am better at first base," Villalona said with the help of an interpreter. "I feel more comfortable at first base, and they put me there for a reason."
  There are some concerns about Villalona's expanding waistline, though Alou calls it "baby fat" and said it's typical for young players to replace it with muscle when they hit their late teens.
  For now, Villalona is getting past the initial culture shock and beginning to settle in. He was soft-spoken but comfortable when speaking with a reporter, as Merengue music drifted from the iPhone in his locker.
  "I'm learning many things," he said. "I want to get my hands dirty and see what I can do."
  While some call him "Baby V" or "Big V," his teammates just call him
  Villa.
  "Villa is just a big kid," Culberson said. "He'll be in the outfield doing cartwheels and the next minute he's hitting bombs."
  Said Alou: "When he first got here, the other players were more advanced, in baseball and in life. He wanted to compete with them, and it was difficult. But I tell you, he is competing with them now. A year later, he is competing."

• Alderson: The reason he might be at Augusta is because he is so advanced that he might get placed with San Jose instead, like how Lincecum started out there (I'm not trying to compare their potential, though, because clearly The Kid was much more advanced, he was a 3rd year college hurler; I'm only noting the similarity of both starting up so high after signing)
• Culberson: During instructional league, he showed that he was pretty advanced with his glove.
• Fairly: Might be the best athlete in the Giants farm system.

One last thing about Villalona. He has been a sensation during spring training, hitting deep drives beyond the left-field fence, over a protective netting, clearing the trees and bouncing off the pavement about 450 feet away. And the vision of him doing cartwheels, given how huge he looked in the photo, is jarring. :^)

Other News

The fallout from Lowry's surgery and being out the month of April continues. Sanchez hasn't been doing well and thus is not holding the last spot in the rotation. The Giants know that Hennessey wants to start and will give him a start today, though there is no plans to stretch him out beyond 2 innings. I have to assume that Misch is in the mix as well. Any rumor about them adding a vet pitcher - I saw one rumor mill mention Kyle Lohse - I have to assume is media-driven speculation, the Giants have been pretty good this winter about going with youth where they can.

In addition, Bochy now says that he will probably have to keep 12 pitchers as a result of the injury. This means an extra guy in the bullpen and they are doing this because the uncertainty in the back of the rotation could result in the need for more relief appearances due to the #5 starter getting pulled early.

I think the team was also influenced by how well both Merkin Valdez and Erick Threets have been throwing, plus the desire to keep Jose Capellan. With a 11 man pitching staff, the Giants would have to lose at least one of them (all of them would be lost if not kept on the 25-man roster). They would also have to lose another if they keep Steve Kline. Valdez, if he continues to pitch well, could slide into a set-up spot and allow the Giants to move Hennessey to starter or long-relief.

Unfortunately, there is also news about Lincecum having a groin injury, so the Giants have shut him down. His slim frame and long stride could cause other physical problems if he should compensate for the groin injury while throwing. I think this was a good precaution.

The good news continue on Wilson and Walker. Both have been doing well, and Wilson was "sharp in his first save situation of the spring." He earned his first save of the spring striking out two and getting a groundout, exactly what you want to see from him as he relies greatly on his cutter that he learned from watching Mariano Riviera demonstrate one on TV.

I Guess Lowry Won't Be Traded Now

The Giants announced today that Noah Lowry will undergo surgery on his left wrist. The 411:

Lowry, 27, was diagnosed with exertional compartmental syndrome in his forearm. Giants manager Bruce Bochy said Lowry could resume throwing in two to three weeks and might not rejoin the starting rotation until late April, although an official prognosis won't be issued until after the surgery.

The Mayo Clinic's Web site described exertional compartmental syndrome as "an exercise-induced neuromuscular condition that causes pain, swelling and sometimes even disability in affected muscles of the legs or arms. The condition can occur in both beginning and seasoned athletes in sports that involve repetitive movements."

In layman's terms, throwing causes compression in Lowry's forearm compartment, resulting in a pressure buildup that squeezes a nerve which weakens Lowry's hand. Dr. Gordon Brody will perform Lowry's surgery, which is expected to be a mild procedure, by making a small incision and releasing the fascia -- akin to slicing a sausage casing -- around the forearm muscles.

Ew, TMI!

Obviously, this should kill all the stupid Lowry for Crede trade rumors that have been flying around. Why the Giants would give up 3 cheap years of a good pitcher for one year of a below average 3B, I don't know, but all the Sabean haters were having a field day crying over how Sabean would do this trade.

I'm OK with this news. It is not great, but I'm OK because it will allow the Giants to start another pitcher in April - whether Sanchez or Misch, as I'm assuming that Correia is now in for sure, though, heck, either could push Correia out with a stellar April when Lowry comes back. In addition, Lowry clearly has been having health issues and this is probably the straw that breaks the camel's back for most teams, his value is severely devalued now, if it wasn't before. Still, getting to basically rest during April should keep Lowry fresh for the second half and he should be able to pitch the rest of the season relatively healthy (though that didn't work in 2006).

In other news, Frandsen has been removed from being the starting SS both because he was struggling there and there seems no use to putting him through a huge position change when he is struggling and it would only be for a week or two during the regular season. The leading contender is Brian Bocock, who has impressed with the glove (some report him as the best fielding SS in our system) and bat, though his bat was the problem last season in Advanced A level. Also competing are Emmanuel Burriss and last year's AAA starter, Ivan Ochoa. I would prefer Ochoa, just to see what he can do up here, but I would be OK with Bocock.

Lastly, Randy Messenger was sent down and he was not happy about it, though he has been horrible this spring, and the odds of him making the 25-man roster was between slim and none. Merkin Valdez has been having a hot spring, which is good because we are out of options and lose him if we try to waive him to the minors. Erick Threets is also out of options and likewise has been doing well. If they make it, then the odds of Jose Capellan making it seems pretty slim if the team goes with a 11 man pitching staff, as Bochy would like to do. Haven't heard what he has done so far. The bullpen right now looks like Brian Wilson, Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, Vinnie Chulk, plus two others, with Valdez, Threets, Capellan, and Kline the main competitors there. I can see Kline being traded to make space before the end of spring. El Lefty Malo has been having a nice series of articles on the bullpen, check there for more info.

Out of Options

Andy Baggarley of the Merc reported that the following players have less than 3 years of service time and are out of options:

• Erick Threets
• Merkin Valdez
• Dan Ortmeier
• Fred Lewis
• Rajai Davis

In addition to Threets, Merkin could be out of the organization by the time the season starts. Neither are likely to pitch so well to push out an incumbent but that's why they play the game, maybe they finally figure things out. Bochy noted that Merkin's delivery looked more compact and controlled, so who knows?

If they are waived, I expect both of them to be picked up by another team. If lesser prospects like Coutlangus (Reds) and Burres (Orioles) get picked up, then most prospects with a pulse are most probably goners.

That's too bad in Merkin's case. We all had such a buildup over the year and to see him leave the organization and then do well elsewhere would hurt. But that's life.

The position players are probably going to make the team this season unless one of them are traded. Today's Merc talked about how Rowand is making a big push for his buddy Crede, and Baggarly wrote that it might take only a Fred Lewis to get Crede, instead of the rumored Jonathan Sanchez.

I would be greatly saddened by that as, while I don't think Lewis will ever be as good as many Giants fans currently think he can be, I still would like to see what he could do as a Giant, because he has shown some flashes of good stuff that I would like to see. Also, we would lose him either for a short-term rental for 2008 or, worse, sign him to a multi-year contract when he's no better than Feliz only younger and a bit worse defensively, though still very good overall.

Even worse, if Durham does do well, then we have no spot for Frandsen to play as 3B would then be occupied. I would be severely disappointed with Sabean if he does this oft-rumored trade, it would not fit in with what he's been saying. And while I understand that not every move/tactic is in line with the overall strategy, given the need for the Giants to find out what Frandsen can do in the majors, they must leave 3B open as an option for Frandsen in case Durham is back.

We need to look to the future and while Crede would help the present, I think it would be better for our future to find out what Lewis can do, rather than verify that Crede is just another Feliz-like hitter.