Your 2017 Giants: Odds and Ends at New Years

Happy New Year!  Wanted to cover some moves the Giants have made to add to their bench position player options for the 2017 season.

The biggest move was signing Jimmy Rollins to a minor league contract, with a $1M MLB base contract, if he makes the roster.  He grew up an A's fan, but started going to Giants games as a teenager, and became a fan during the Will Clark, Matt Williams, Royce Clayton era.  He seems excited and energized to be with the Giants.

He could have signed with the Giants last season, who pursued him with a similar contract, but he wanted to start so he ended up with the ChiSox.  However, getting dropped early in the season, and not getting any interest made him realize that it's time to be a reserve, and so he took up the Giants offer from last season for this season.  Oddly, they did not discuss his role for this season when he signed, he stated in an interview that he assumes that the Giants intentions must be the same as it was last season, when they tried to sign him, which was to provide a veteran presence off the bench in the infield.

Other significant major leaguer signings included:

• Mike Morse:  After missing most of the past two seasons - due to injury in 2015, due to being DFA and not picked up in 2016 - he reached out to the Giants and signed a minor league deal with them.  
• Justin Ruggiano:  Good hitter against LHP, he's strictly a platoon player.  Also hasn't played much in the past few seasons, hardly at all last season.  
• Tim Federowicz:  Will be battling for the backup catcher position with a minor league contract.  He spent most of his MLB career playing backup for the Dodgers, but last season played for the Cubs briefly.  He's been mostly a good defensive player, poor hitter, though per Baseball-Reference.com, last season he was not good defensively.  He's the youngest of this group at 29 YO next season, Ruggiano is 35 YO, Morse is also 35 YO, Rollins is 38 YO.  

Your 2015 Giants: The Hot Stove Is Heating Up

Basking in the afterglow of the Giants third championship in five seasons, it would be easy to forget the reality that a number of our players on this wonderful, wonderful, team are free agents who could chose to move on.

These are the free agents:

• Pablo Sandoval
• Jake Peavy
• Michael Morse
• Sergio Romo
• Ryan Vogelsong

Ghosts of Giants Past Visiting Game 5 of the NLCS

Heard some cool factoids in the media after the thrilling victory that propelled the Giants into the World Series for the third time in five seasons.  And they involve some old-time Giants helping the Giants of the Present in each home run.

Your 2014 Giants ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

The Giants win the Pennant!  The Giants win the Pennant!  The Giants win the Pennant!

ogc thoughts

Wow, what a series, what an ending!

Travis Ishikawa, gaining redemption for misplaying the flyball earlier, giving the Cards their first run, hit a three-run homer for a walk-off win in the bottom of the 9th, just like billions of kids have dreamed of doing.

Meanwhile, NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner pitched well enough, while coughing up a couple of homers, and despite all the strike thrown, not that many strikeouts, to keep the team close, after giving up the 3 runs after 4 innings pitched, shutting down the Cards for another 4 innings, getting us to the point where Michael Morse could hit a homer in the 8th to tie the game, then Ishi came through in the bottom of the 9th.

And oh, how fortunes can change in just one year, Wacha, after winning the NLCS MVP award last season, he's used in the whole series until now, pitches third of an inning, ending with a 81.00 ERA for this series.

Can't forget Joe Panik hitting the team's first homer of the NLCS, two run homer to put the team ahead after the Cards scored the first run on the ball that Ishi misplayed.  After all these runs scored without hits, the Giants score six runs in this game with the long ball, a solo, a two-run, and the walk-off three-run.

Congrats to the Giants!  Good luck in the World Series!

Go Giants!

Your 2014 Giants: Fickle FInger of Fate, Part Deux: Sans-a-Belt

You read the news today, oh boy:  Belt HBP, broken thumb, says he's out six weeks.  He'll be DLed tomorrow.  He's one of our leading hitters with .815 OPS and team lead in homers.

Your 2014 Giants: Affeldt Close to Returning, But Then Who Goes?

There is a nice article by Baggerly about this topic.

Your 2014 Giants: Three Righties Don't Make a Wrongy

In the wake of the first game of the season, one of the comments I've seen is about the decision to bat Sandoval third, followed by the three right-handed hitters:  Posey, Pence, Morse.  Conventional wisdom is that you don't want to do that because then the other team could counter that with a RHP reliever.

ogc thoughts

And that works in a general sense, but not always.  The most obvious example is if Barry Bonds is part of that lineup sequence, just because the other team throws a LHP at us does not mean that suddenly, the lineup is weak where Bonds is.  That's generally what's happening here too.

So yes, putting Sandoval in the middle of the right-handers might seem like a good idea, in order to break up the hitters.  And Bochy is known for doing that sort of maneuvering, in order to gain an advantage.  But his move makes sense in another couple of ways.

Here are the hitter's career numbers vs. RHP:

Sandoval:  .300/.355/.498/.853, ISO 198
Posey:  .294/.366/.444/.810, ISO 150
Pence:  .283/.336/.461/.798, ISO 178
Morse:  .280/.332/.470/.803, ISO 190

Not really that big of a difference among the four hitters vs. RHP.  The plus of doing this is it puts the higher OBP hitter into the 3 spot, to help set up the middle of the lineup when facing RHP.  In addition, his ISO and SLG is higher as well, and that's good for driving in runs as well.

That, plus Belt batting 2nd, that helps too, since he can beat on RHP, would give Sandoval opportunities to drive in runs.  And that fits in with Pagan leading off, because Pagan hits much better against RHP than LHP, hitting .289/.343/.428/.771 vs. RHP, .264/.312/.411/.723 vs. LHP.  Which is odd since he's a natural RHH.

Now, there is one bad thing about the sequence, but it isn't the three in RHH in the middle, but the sequence of Pagan/Belt/Sandoval up top.  All three of them has hit worse against LHP in their career.  Pagan particularly poorly, in the low 700 OPS range.  Belt has actually hit well against LHP in his career, which is something some fans have pointed out before, but he had more separation last season, which suggests that perhaps it wasn't that he hit both equally well, but his poor batting mechanics was hurting him against RHP.  Still, as shown above for the RHH, it could be that Belt hits LHP OK enough, but just kills RHP, like Posey in reverse (both Pence and Morse are remarkably even against either, which I believes helps steady an offense no matter what hand is pitching).   Sandoval has hit LHP well at times, so who knows now that he is fitter this season.

Still, handedness can be utilized against each three-batter sequence.  A LHP is key against Pagan/Belt/Sandoval because that neutralizes the three overall plus really cripples the offense with Pagan.  A RHP is key against Posey/Pence/Morse because Posey really kills RHP.  The plus for Giants fans is that Sandoval/Posey/Pence/Morse is still a great sequence of hitters, even if the other team deploys a LHP followed by a RHP.

Get Me One Time, Sure, But Twice, Three Times?

And maybe that's the clue into why Bochy is doing this.  Teams don't face this lineup in a vacuum.  They have to utilize resources.  Pagan/Belt/Sandoval is a trigger that encourages the other team to switch to a LHP against that three hitter sequence.

If it were just Pagan, they might make due with a RHP to get through him and Belt (he's a lefty, but his history is of ups and downs, is what some of the other teams will see).   Especially if Pence is the 3rd hitter instead of Sandoval, a team might want to squeak by with a RHP against these top two hitters.  But three hitters who hit RHP well but LHP not as well, that's an inning right there, tempting for a team to switch to their Loogy.  But then with Posey next (plus Pence and Morse, but mostly Posey, who kills LHP), the other team must, must, must go with the RHP here.  That happens sometime in the 6/7 inning, let's say.

But then if they just used their top Loogy, who will they turn to in the 8/9 inning when Pagan comes up again?  They will want to go to another Loogy.  But most teams only have one really good Loogy, the other one is usually not as good.  But if they used the better one earlier, then the Giants either face the weaker one or a RHP.  Or the team could save the stronger one for later, but then the weaker one or a RHP would face Pagan/Belt/Sandoval in 6/7.  Those are still good hitters, it's truly "pick your poison" time.

Then let's say we get into extra innings, or sometimes we bat around fast and get another time through before extra innings.  While the Giants have often carried three lefties in recent seasons, most teams do not do that.  So now we have a third time through the lineup.  The other team can only use LHP once maybe twice, at some point they will have to face the Giants lineup with a RHP reliever, and we have six really good hitters in a row against RHP.  Plus probably Crawford batting 7th with Arias starting.

It's like Russian Roulette with our RHP lineup, maybe you dodge them once with a Loogy, maybe twice with both Loogy, but by the third time, the lineup is set up to hurt a RHP.  And that was one of our weaknesses last season, we lost a lot of games against RHP.  That's seven straight hitters who hit RHP well.  And had Scutaro been OK to start this season, we could have 8 hitters in the lineup who hit RHP well, no real holes anywhere, even at SS and CF.

That's been the real fun for me over the past decade or so of blogging, looking at the moves that the Giants make, then analyzing to see whether that makes sense or not.  There typically is some good reason that can be found for making the moves that they do.   Sometimes it is based on the reality that just because you need a certain player, it does not mean that other teams will give you him for whoever the Giants are tangling, so the Giants made a move just to make a move, in hopes that it delivers (like the Hillenbrand or Garko trades).  Other times, like this time, the numbers really bear out their decision.

Sandoval and Posey are decision points in the lineup because of how much better they hit against their opposite handed pitchers (FYI, for those who don't know, Sandoval is a natural lefty - yes, he learned how to throw right-handed, in order to play SS like his hero Omar Vizquel).  If the other team don't make a move, one of them will get to feast off a pitcher handedness that they love to hit against.  And given this lineup, there is some incentive for the other team to burn a Loogy at some point to get through the top of the lineup, but then they must switch to a RHP when Posey comes up.

And if Belt develops like I expect him to, he could be another decision point in the lineup, killing RHP, at which point Bochy could fiddle with the lineup again, maybe bat Belt 3rd, Posey 4th, Sandoval 5th, which would really force the other team into a position they don't want to be in, facing our lineup.

And the good news, no matter how the other team tries to neutralize our lineup, Belt, Sandoval, Posey, Pence, and Morse all hit relatively well against almost all pitchers, they are pretty good against both LHP and RHP, only much better against one for Posey and Sandoval.  And Scutaro, should he return at some point, is pretty evenly good too, like Pence and Morse, not that much better at one or the other.  That yields a very consistent, as well as good, lineup, no matter who is thrown at them.  And particularly good against RHP because Pagan and Crawford are better against RHP.

Your 2014 Giants FanFeast

The Giants had their annual FanFest and Baggerly, Schulman, Pavlovic, and Haft posted good bits of info (I would just link, but some spread it out over a number of posts, so find their links to the right if you don't already have them bookmarked, THE sources to go to for comprehensive Giants info).

Your 2014 Giants: Opening Two 40-man Roster Spots

In order to open a spot for Mike Morse, the Giants end up possibly losing two players.  As reported by the usual suspects, the Giants worked on a deal to sell Brett Pill to a Korean team, but when the papers went through league official channels and Morse needed to be added, the Giants DFAed Eric Surkamp to put Morse on.  Pill's sale - pending his negotiating a salary with the new club, apparently the expectation is that he'll get $1M or so, so the talk is that if this falls through, there are other Korean and Japanese clubs interested - will then open up a spot on the 40-man,  and that appears to have happened.

ogc thoughts

It is a bit of a risk to expose Surkamp this way, but, as reported by one writer, odds are that other teams are at their 40-man max like the Giants and won't claim him.  I would say that this is due to the Rule 5 Draft pushing teams to roster players they don't want to lose.  Still, if some team likes Surkamp more than one of their 40, they will claim him.

If unclaimed, it is reported that since this is his first one, the Giants can re-assign him to Fresno and hold him there.   Should he be placed on the 40 again and DFAed again, then should he be unclaimed again, he could decline assignment and declare himself a free agent.

I like what Surkamp did previously and what he has done in his recovery from his TJS, but if we lose him, se la vie.  I have reached the point that I trust the Giants brain trust to make the call on a player and what they think is right.

Sabean and gang has been extraordinarily good at not missing much when trading away players or just plain letting them go, and especially at keeping around the interesting ones who might be good ones, like Cain, Lincecum, Sandoval, Posey, Bumgarner, Belt and Crawford.  Who have gotten away?  Foulke, Howry, Liriano but he caused the Twins to waste Mauer's and Morneau's peak seasons, maybe Villanueva and Correia, and Wheeler is a ticking time bomb.  That's minor compared to what we have gotten in trade:  Schmidt, Snow, Burke, Livan, Nen, Winn, Pence, Scutaro, among others.

If Surkamp moves on and prove the Giants wrong, that's what happens with calculated risks, sometimes they backfire.  Fans get mad at mistakes, but I feel that any GM who does not skate on the edge isn't doing everything he can to get us to the promised land ... again, for the third time, one must also remember.

Fans should want their GM to take some risks, to push the envelope some, and pick up some big gains in the process.  Like, though they had a full rotation already, had Tanaka been available, maybe they go ahead and bid for him and maybe win him, then figure out what to do with six starters (apparently Tanaka's team isn't happy that the new posting system limits them to $20M posting fee, and thus are keeping him for one more season - they control him for two more - for $8M and probably will post him next off-season; which is perfect for us, as we'll have a better idea of where Lincecum, Hudson, and Vogelsong are with their major league careers by next off-season, and perhaps be very interested in entering the contest for his services).

But I think I can say pretty confidently that should we lose him, he won't go on and be a Johan Santana who moves on to become an ace.  That rarely happens period, and hasn't happened to the Giants so far, though Liriano came close and Wheeler is still out there.  And his stats, while nice in the minors, wasn't overwhelming either, like Lincecum's or Bumgarner's were.   But you never know, hence the term "calculated risk".  It is unlikely he comes back to hurt us, but that risk is there.

Meanwhile, it looks like Pill is signing with a Korean team and that will open up one 40-man roster spot for the Giants.  Now, if another team comes into the situation where they need to DFA someone they otherwise might have kept, that is, take their calculated risk, the Giants are in position now to grab a flier, like they did with Rosario last season.  He did OK but not that great, and while he'll be competing for a spot, I don't see him winning a spot, not with Hembree and Machi around.  But that's baseball too, that's why you play the games, because you never know.

In other news, the Giants appeared to have added a number of players, as reported by Pavlovic:

• First, the Giants (I read this somewhere else previously) signed former A's relief pitcher, Andrew Carignan, whose stats looked nice.  Could be a nice reclamation project, not sure why the A's let him go, maybe he could be another Casilla for us.
• Also, BA announced the Giants signed Adam Refer and Casey Weathers.   The Giants rep for being Pitcher Whisperers appears to be still going strong, the former did well with flaws (walks) and the latter was a high draft pick who has struggled (like Blanco and Arias, who were top prospects once), and the Giants picked up both.
• And a Giants minor leaguer playing in winter league tweeted that a teammate, Mario Lisson, signed with the team.  He played a number of positions, but apparently 3B is his regular position.

Carignan appears to be another Hunter Strickland find.  He was out for all of 2013, for TJS, and just like Hunter, picked him up the season he missed the full season recovering from that surgery.  The twist here is that he also had shoulder surgery as well, that is why he was out for all of 2013, even though he was TJS operated in mid-2012, like Surkamp was.  But you look at his stats, and if he is anywhere near what he was doing before in AAA, he could be a good reliever at the major league level. And the Giants reviewed all of his medical files and still signed him.  So good luck to him.  

Your 2014 Giants: Mike Morse Signed to Play LF

As reported by the usual suspects, Mike Morse has been signed by the Giants.  I've seen one report for $5M plus incentives, another for $6M.  He has been named the starting LF, apparently that had to be promised to him in order to get him to ignore a larger money deal with Astros.

He had a down season in 2013 after a strong three years 2010-2012, and thus the worries, plus he has missed a lot of games due to health issues, only putting in one season where he played most of the games, in 2011.

ogc thoughts

Some are complaining that he's not much of an improvement over Blanco, that their WAR production is similar.  Signing a free agent is not always about improving on what you got already. In this case, the Giants have almost zero depth in the OF, with Perez, Kieschnick, and Brown as the most likely call-ups, and none of them looking particularly good as a starter. By getting a player like Morse, now they have better coverage should Pagan (or Morse) be felled by injury, with Blanco taking over in that case. Last season, instead, Torres came in and sucked.  I think that is a major reason for the signing, providing additional depth.

In any case, since there is no agreement on which defensive metric is the best one or even the correct one, while I would agree that comparing players as to who is better is fine, to try to measure exactly who is better and calculating a WAR to compare is equivalent to the old-timers who still love to use BA to compare hitters.  That degree of lack of alignment to true value makes it hard to say anything definitive in either case.

And there is an improvement over Blanco in that Morse has amazingly even splits versus LHP and RHP, whereas Blanco is clearly a platoon player, unable to figure out LHP yet.  People forget how much platoon players cost your lineup when they are in there and sucking badly. Morse is someone who can hit either pitcher similarly well.  On top of that, he has actually hit better on the road than at home, suggesting that his numbers have been suppressed by his home park (though with AT&T, he'll probably be suppressed again)

In addition, the Giants seem to have some success working with guys who have historically been poor defenders in the OF and getting some improvement. Burrell and Huff playing much better than expected in the OF and in fact turned in positive WAR, a total 180 degree turn. I assume they hope to do the same with Morse, which would improve on his WAR/600 greatly if, say, they can turn a strongly negative player to positive, as they did with those two, until health affected both. I think Pence too had a turnaround as well, at least in UZR.  

Furthermore, he also can get some help out in LF.  Pagan is pretty speedy and could shade towards LF to help Morse out. And Blanco can and probably will come in the late innings and help reduce that negative fielding issue, Bochy has done that before in the past.

Also, Morse was once athletic enough that his team put him at SS, roughly 50 games. He is much older now and is a huge guy, but he's also never really had that much experience with playing LF, and as they say, practice makes perfect. Maybe the Giants puts him through a lot of extra drills in spring training to prepare him better to play LF than the Nats did. Again, they have had success turning water buffaloes into good fielders in the OF.

Depth is also important should the Giants make it into the World Series again.  NL teams normally are at a disadvantage with the DH in AL home parks.  But as long as Morse is healthy and productive in the fall, recovering from whatever injuries he may have during the season, Blanco can start in LF and he could be the DH, neutralizing the AL advantage for a good part.

Lastly, for $5M, they might pick up 20-30 homers to their lineup.  Plus, at $5M, you expect some warts to come with the player, it is a high risk, high reward type of situation.  Yes, his defense and chronic healthy issues are things to worry about, but there are positives as well in his power and resultant high OPS.

It's not like I'm in love with the move, but I see the positives of the move for the Giants, and there are areas where they can help tilt the balance towards the Giants favor. Unlike many others, I was OK with Blanco/Perez in LF, but improving our OF depth helps mitigate the risks of either an injury or poor performance by one of the outfielders, plus Morse could man 1B should anything happens to Belt for some reason (hey, weirder things can happen, see Kendry Morales).  Yes, he might get injured, but if they can keep him on the field, imagine him repeating 2011 with better fielding due to the Giants defensive magic.  Overall, I think it improves the Giants and helps move the bar towards the Giants making the playoffs again.
That solidifies the bench further.  Now it's Hanchez, Arias, Abreu/Adrianza, and Blanco, leaving one spot open for Juan Perez, Brett Pill, and Kieschnick to battle for, plus any minor league invites that goes out.