Your 2026 Giants: ZiPS Projections

Happy St Patrick’s Day!  Had my corned beef, cabbage and Guinness for dinner, yum!!!

Every season, Dan Szymborski publishes his ZiPS projections, and his system is honed pretty well, for when he examines after each season how his system does, roughly half exceeds their 50th percentile projection.  It even works roughly by percentiles, thus 10% of the players fail to meet their 10th percentile projections and 90% of the players (again, roughy) fail to meet their 90th percentile projections (which means 10% beats them).  

I thought I would review his Giants annual, and see what looks interesting to comment or report on, especially as Opening Day is approaching.  I have been using his projections the past couple of seasons because the Giants have been relying on pitching prospects, and the Giants under Zaidi had stockpiled a bunch of pitching prospects who are projected to pitch as well as the average MLB pitcher. 

ogc thoughts

I have always liked ZiPS. It has always been tougher on Giants players than I would have thought, and that has helped me understand that I might be too exuberant about a player’s performance.  I have also found it to be somewhere in between all the various projections I collected each spring to get an idea of what to expect out of Giants players, especially new acquisitions.  

Starting Pitching Depth

Of course, it all starts with Logan Webb.  He is projected at his 50th percentile projections to have a 3.05 ERA and produce 4.8 WAR.  His 80th percentile is 2.64 ERA and 5.6 WAR, his 20th percentile is 3.65 ERA and 3.4 WAR.  This gives a good idea of potential highs and lows.  

Robbie Ray, astonishingly, is only projected to have a 4.04 ERA and produce only 1.8 WAR.  His 80th is 3.54 ERA and 2.7 WAR.  His 20th is 4.87 ERA and 0.5 WAR.  I was shocked because it is worse than what he produced last season, but it is clear that it is because his FIP has not been as good in recent seasons and that’s how projection systems work, looking at prior performances.  What systems miss is that Robbie had a 2.85 ERA after 26 starts, but since he hadn’t pitched a full season since 2022, he was a bit gassed, and was horrible in his final starts of the season.  I would bet that Ray is closer to his 80th percentile than his 50th percentile.  I am also hoping to see the Giants sign him to an extension this spring.

Landen Roupp is projected to have a 3.79 ERA and 1.5 WAR, vs 3.32 ERA and 2.1 WAR, vs. 4.36 ERA and 0.8 WAR.  His WAR is low, despite having a better ERA than Ray, because he’s only projected to have almost 100 IP.  Which is understandable, he had his high in total innings pitched last season at 109.2 IP.  He will need to get over his injury problems, which seem to happen every season, but if he did, the Giants are likely to try to push him to 150+ IP.  I wonder, given the days off early in the schedule, where they don’t need a 5th starter, maybe they use Roupp as a long reliever for some (maybe most) of April, like teams used to do with their 5th starter, and then insert Roupp into the rotation, so that, if he can beat his injury bug, he’ll still be productive and able to pitch for the team if they can make the playoffs, instead of being sidelined be his arm is tired. 

Tyler Mahle is projected to have a 4.11 ERA and 0.9 WAR, vs. 3.59 ERA and 1.5 WAR, vs. 4.73 ERA and 0.2 WAR.  Like Roupp, Mahle is projected to have a low IP (under 100), and that’s because he’s been recovering from his TJ surgery of a few years back.  He has said in interviews this spring that he has not felt right pitching in recent seasons, and now feels good, as good as he felt back in 2021, when he had his breakout season.  He states he fixed some mechanical issues that was hurting his shoulder.  I don’t know if he can get beyond 100 IP, which is his main way of increasing his WAR, but a better ERA, which he easily beat last season, should not be a huge hurdle for him.

Adrian Houser is projected to have a 4.12 ERA and 1.2 WAR.  There was no ZiPS team projection for him, for some reason, unlike Mahle, who was placed with his old team, the Rangers.  Like Mahle, he claims to have fixed some mechanical issues, which took him a while to get velocity results, as he ended last season with his sinker averaging 95 MPH, the highest all season.  Like Roupp and Mahle, projected to a low IP, in his case, because, while he has been mostly consistent with his games started, they were consistently in the low 20’s, showing that he hasn’t been able to last through a full MLB season in the starting rotation.  Presumably injuries have put him on the IL, causing him to miss a couple months of starts every season, plus he rarely went beyond 5-6 IP, but still, projections see him in the 140-149 IP range, which is where his high for a season was 142 IP.

There are a number of other pitchers who could be contributing starts in the 2026 season:

• Trevor McDonald:  4.36 ERA, 1.1 WAR, 130 IP projection.  With how well he pitched last season in his MLB debut, plus this spring, he is likely first man up when it comes to calling up SP. Also, after bouncing around 100 IP in a season, he broke through to 157.1 IP last season in his 24 YO season. So he should be able to contribute late in the season and into the playoffs, should the get in. Meanwhile, he’s looking like he will win a bullpen spot to start the season.
• Hayden Birdsong:  4.47 ERA,  0.8 WAR; his status this spring is similar to Kyle Harrison last spring, the guy fans are expecting to step up and be one of the good starters this season, but then something unexpected happened: reports are that Birdsong hurt his elbow and need TJS (he’s seeking a second opinion now), which, if true, wipes out 2026 and early 2027 for him, unfortunately…
• Carson Whisenhunt:  4.41 ERA, 1.0 WAR; the talk this spring is improvements in velocity, as tweaks to his mechanics yielded an extra 2 MPH, pushing his fastball back to where it was in 2023, when his prospect star was brightest. If he can get back to where he was before, he would help to make up for the loss of Birdsong to TJS.
• Blade Tidwell:  4.33 ERA, 1.0 WAR; he was doing very well for the Giants after the trade and was close to being called up when he got injured, and that derailed the rest of his season.  He hopefully continues to do well in AAA and be ready when the Giants need SP later in the season, as it is unlikely that Houser, Mahle and Roupp will make all 32 starts in the rotation. However, his high is 121.1 IP in 2024, and he’s only 25 YO this season, so he could be innings limited as well. 
• Carson Seymour:  4.23 ERA, 1.0 WAR; hasn’t shown much in the majors but as seen by this projection, has done well enough in the minors to get opportunities.  He has the best projection, which I note because a couple of years ago, Roupp had the best projection and then did well.  
• Keaton Winn:  4.12 ERA, 0.6 WAR, 63.1 IP; low IP because he’s projected more as reliever, but has been mostly used as a starting pitcher before.  I expect him to be used mostly in the 2026 Giants bullpen, if healthy, but could get some starts because he’s old enough now to push, if necessary.  

Starting Lineup

I dug into possibilities before in a prior post, based on my analysis, let’s see how crazy they were compared with the 80th percentile ZiPS projections; I will use the optimized lineup from that post:

1. Luis Arraez:  80th unavailable vs .348/.399, 2.1
2. Rafael Devers:  .380/.530, 5.2 vs. .356/.474, 3.4
3. Heliot Ramos:  .349/.475, 3.3 vs. .327/.422, 1.8
4. Willy Adames:  .345/.477, 5.7 vs. .322/.427, 4.2 
5. Matt Chapman:  .366/.506, 5.4 vs. .342/.450, 4.0
6. Harrison Bader:   .336/.461, 2.5 vs. .309/.407, 1.4
7. Casey Schmitt:  .338/.466, 2.6 vs. .312/.416, 1.5
8. Patrick Bailey:  .323/.402, 4.4 vs. .292/.351, 3.3
9. Jung Hoo Lee:   .356/.440, 3.5 vs. .323/.399, 2.1

And, of course, the projection most Giants fans are interested in is of Bryce Eldridge.  He is projected to hit .238/.302/.422/.724, in 494 PA, almost a season’s worth, but with -2 defense and DH profile, that only works to 0.5 WAR production.  As exciting as it would be for him to start the season on the team, I think he needs to start off with AAA and force his way up, he needs to hit closer to 800 OPS to be productive enough to earn the DH role. And I think that’s possible because he was held back by his wrist injury all season, which was bad enough to warrant surgery.  

Also, him taking a roster spot would mean one less bench spot available, leaving three spots after backup catcher likely goes to Daniel Susac.  Schmitt and Koss are expected to be IF backups, and Koss has experience in the OF. That means a LHH would likely win the OF backup spot, else the bench is all RHH. Most teams want to be able to PH a LHH at times. 

This would mean both Matos and Encarnacion would need to be DFAed, as they are out of options, and likely lost to waivers to another team.  I like Encarnacion but still believe in Matos breaking out because of his contact ability, which he has demonstrated in the majors, as well as the minors.  So another reason I want to send down Eldridge, who likely still needs development (but admittedly, not much more), is so that the Giants can retain one of Matos (preferably) or Encarnacion.  

Hopefully, by the time Eldridge forces his way up, we have a better idea of what Matos can contribute in the majors (though he did bat .916 OPS in 19 games of bench duty, in the last two months of 2025), and keep him over a LHH OF or trade him for more value, or if he fails, DFA him, and hope he falls through to AAA, as hopefully teams won’t have space to stash him. 

I would like to also point out other interesting possibilities.  One is that Devers was hitting around 900 OPS, his 80th percentile projection, when he was DHing for his former club, so it is not outrageous if he hits that well in 2026, now that he’s more settled with his weeewthe Giants. Another is that Bader has hit nearly 800 OPS before, multiple times, and claims to have figured it out, mechanically.  In addition, Lee is still developing, and hit in the high 700’s OPS in the last three months, so it’s not a stretch if he does it over a full season in 2026.  Similarly with Ramos, he needs to hit as he could over a full season.  And while there was no 80th percentile projection for Arraez, in his only season playing mostly 2B, he had his best season hitting. 

Bullpen Options 

Aside from Walker, Miller and Butto, it is likely nobody has a firm grip on a bullpen spot over the other options, and the battle will continue to Opening Day.  Here are the pitchers competing for a bullpen spot, with their 50th percentile projection of ERA:

• Ryan Walker:  3.25 ERA
• Erik Miller:   3.75 ERA
• Jose Butto:  3.80 ERA
• Matt Gage:  3.96 ERA
• Joey Lucchesi:  4.23 ERA
• JT Brubaker:  4.36 ERA
• Spencer Bivens:  4.33 ERA
• Sam Hentges:  3.22 ERA
• Jason Foley:  3.43 ERA
• Keaton Winn:  4.12 ERA 
• Tristan Beck:  4.07 ERA 
• Gregory Santos:  3.64 ERA
• Caleb Killian:  4.33 ERA
• Matt Fulmer:  3.92 ERA
• Joel Peguero:  4.42 ERA
• Will Bednar:  4.71 ERA

The average RP ERA in the NL was 4.13 ERA in 2025.  9 pitchers above are projected to be better than average, 7 of them at or under 3.92 ERA, which is roughly 5% better ERA than average RP, 4 of them under 3.72 ERA, which is roughly 10% better ERA.  

Of course, two of the 5 won’t be available on Opening Day, Hentges and Foley, but both are expected to be available by mid-season.  There’s a lot of expected performance, but the problem is they are not guaranteed since each pitcher has question marks about whether they can reliably produce their projections. Rolling the dice with so many positions is untenable for some fans, and especially the media, which has been banging the drums about the Giants not having a known set of back end relievers. But the talent is there for a good to great bullpen, especially in the second half of the season.

Walker as closer is scary because he wasn’t up for it last season.  People need to remember that he was just in his second season last year, and that he was lights out good in his first season. They also need to remember that he suffered from a lot of bad luck last season, and that’s why his projected 3.25 ERA isn’t far from his FIP of 3.30 last season.  Relievers are subject to a ton of random factors because they don’t pitch all that much, and so bad luck can spike a reliever’s season.

Also, I think Winn and Beck can play important roles in the bullpen in 2026, much like they played well in the 2023 season, where both produced good bWAR in limited playing time.  We mostly need help in the backend bullpen in the first half, as Hentges and Foley should be available by midseason and projected to do well, so Winn and Beck’s injury history, while concerning over a full season, should be doable if they can give us a good first half. Both also have options still, so it is possible the Giants might keep guys with no options, like Fulmer, but then utilize them later, as needed. But the main point is that they should be useful at some points of the season.

Then there’s the need for speed, because a bullpen needs some heat to get that strikeout when necessary.  Santos, Killian, Peguero, and Bednar all have brung heat this spring.  So has Winn, with 99 MPH. Peguero has been battling an injury, and Bednar was sent down, but they all might get some time in the majors this season given their ability to throw high heat.

Few are even mentioning Jose Butto for set up duty, but he has been a good MLB pitcher so far in his career.  Furthermore, in high leverage situations, he has allowed a batting line of .203/.319/.327/.646, situations  he has faced in roughly 25% of his PA (191 PA) and 30% of his games (55 games).

If we go with Walker, Miller, Butto, Bivens, that gives us half the bullpen, and four spots open.  Gage, Fulmer and Killian look headed for spots, given their heavier usage this spring, and good performances so far, and out of options.  Santos as well, though he missed a lot of time due to bereavement leave, so he probably slots into the minors, hopefully.  McDonald looks like the Roupp of this season, piggybacking off a good first MLB debut to win an MLB bullpen spot.  He should win the last spot, if those above three win spots. 

Initially, Walker as closer, Miller and Butto get used as set up relievers.  Fulmer has experience so he could be used there as well.  Killian and Gage can be both middle and set up, as necessary.  McDonald and Bivens can give multi innings appearances, as well as other roles.  

No Lopez or Affeldt level of experience and performances, but good projections and spring performances portend a good 2026 starting point for the bullpen.  And you never know who becomes the Casilla of the group who steps up this season and grab ahold of a spot.  But, yeah, it can fall flat, like the starting staff the past two seasons, so you never know.  Still, it is not like there aren’t some good pitchers, plus others who look like they can contribute.