- Hunter Pence: $13.8M, which is basically where he should be. His prior arbitration amounts worked out to roughly low $17M market value (based on the 40%/60%/80% of market value rule of thumb that is used by many sabers). This amount works out to $17.25M. Media reports that there is not likely to be a long-term deal to be worked out in spring, and I can see why. $17M is a lot to pay Hunter, frankly, the Astros screwed things up by giving him that much so it has stuck. I can see the Giants letting him go into free agency where his offers will determine what his true market value is, and then swooping in to sign him to a long-term deal. Given how much he seems to love it here, I can see him giving the team a final try to beat whatever offer comes his way. I would be mildly surprised if he gets that much, but with so much new money coming into the league, it is hard to get shocked by any salary nowadays.
- Buster Posey: $8M. Not sure if there's ever a rule of thumb on a Super-Two. I've used 30% before, and that would work out to a $26.667M market value, and if you used the 40%, you get $20M. Looking at the two, roughly $25M works for me. That's close to Howard's $10M that he got in arbitration (he did not work out a deal, so he asked for $10M and got it, while the Phillies offered $7M).
- Jose Mijares: $1.8M. For a first timer, that works out to $4.5M, which seems fair for what he did in 2012. That is right around but under what the Giants signed Affeldt, Lopez, and Casilla to.
- Gregor Blanco: $1.35M. For a part-time starter, that's not too bad. This values him at $3.25M, and if anything, I think that might be on the low side, as he did start a lot of games. Still, that's not a sure thing in 2013, with Torres around and probably competition from Kieschnick and/or Peguero at minimum. And he was up and down last season.
I have to think that Romo's side is asking for closer type money and the Giants are balking. Though it could also be that they might be working on a deal to cover his two remaining arb seasons and go into his free agent years, much like Casilla. His arb salary last season placed his market value at $3.9M. Assuming he values himself closer to a Brandon League $7.5M deal, for a quasi closer, that works out to a $4.5M salary for 2013. Maybe we can get him signed to a deal close to but above Casilla's 3 year, $15M deal, like $16.5M, extra half mil per season.
I have been wanting to see the Giants sign Posey to a long term deal and the media reports that the Giants are trying to get a deal done. At $25M per, that works out to $10M in 2014, $15M in 2015, $20M in 2016 (total of $45M). Assuming some discount for giving him guaranteed money now, versus risking that he get injured and not earn any of these amounts, maybe $9M in 2014, $12M in 2015, $15M in 2016, $20M in 2017 plus mutual option year for 2018. That works out to a $56M deal. Throw in a $4M buyout of the 2018 option, that works out to 4 year deal with option for $60M. Add another year for $20M, that is a 5 year deal for $80M. Both seems fair to me, given 2011. I would lean more towards a longer contract than shorter with him. I view him as our Jeter, someone to keep here for his career.