Prospect Theory: Using Age Relative to League as Guideposts for Heliot Ramos

A theory, or rule of thumb, that I’ve been noodling on for over two decades is about gauging when a prospect might break through in the majors, after which point, I would give up hope that he will develop.  I was hoping to get it done before the draft, but, alas, I didn’t.  And now my subject has been traded away, but that’s okay.  

One prospect that worked for this idea was Heliot Ramos.  After struggling for two MLB seasons, 2022-23, he broke out in 2024.  Many fans had given up on him, but because he did well in A ball when he was 3-4 years younger than the league, I was waiting for the equivalent in the majors, and 2024 was that season, and he broke out.

But, obviously, that’s just one case, one example.  So I thought I would go through Giants history and see how prior hot prospects did, using this rule, and how the theory fits reality.  But first, I should go over what I did with Heliot Ramos.  This post will review my thoughts as it related to Ramos when he was a prospect, and discuss my theory on prospect analysis.