Friday, July 19, 2013

Your 2013 Giants: Bobby Evans' News on Players

Evans was interviewed, Schulman tweeted info, blogger covered the news and gave his views.  I think he did a nice job and a great service to Giants fans:  http://aroundthefoghorn.com/2013/07/19/vp-bobby-evans-on-siriusxm-on-vogey-pence-brown-and-a-note-on-romo/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Trending

ogc thoughts


Vogie starts rehab in AA, shoot for return in early to mid August.  To me, that is big news, it is not that far from now potentially, the start of August is only 13 days away.  At that point, the Giants will have an interesting decision to make:  who losses their starting rotation job? 

Before it was easy to say Gaudin, as we need a long man, but he has one really well for us.  I agree with covechatter that it might be Zito, though my speculation on my blog was that he could be DFAed at that point, as we are still at a full 40-man and Vogie is on the 60-day DL and someone would have to be cleared off the island to bring back Vogie.  If Zito is DFAed, then I think Kickham would come up and be our long relief guy.

About Pence, I took it the opposite of the author, I viewed it as more that Evans hoped that we don't go south and have to consider such an issue.  But I agree that it was a non-comittal to Pence. 

I think the Giants are still on the fence, Pence's cold streak lately hasn't helped his cause, if he were still hitting like he were in April/May, I think it would be likely the Giants do pursue Pence, with QO at minimum, but I think they have a price in their head that they won't go over, and are willing to let free agency determine whether another team overpays for him or not. 

I still hope the Giants pursue Pence and be in the mix, but I don't want to pay him the market value that his arb awards portend, which is $17M per year.  Astros really screwed up with him on his arbs, set a bad precedence, I think.  But a 3-4 years deal in the $13-15M per year range is OK with me, as we need at least two good bats in the middle, Posey is clearly one, but Sandoval's weight and injury issues makes him iffy, and Belt, while he could be that bat for us someday, I don't know if he'll reach that point by the end of the season.

About Brown, that's been the Giants position with all prospects that they expect to play a significant role on the team in the near future, they have said that about Wilson, Bumgarner, Posey, at minimum that I remember.  They want them getting a lot of playing time and focused on improving themselves.

About Romo, I didn't take that to be a not solid commitment to Romo.  I view that more as an organizational stance, much like how Beane thinks closers are fungible and easily replaced.  This to me confirms that the Giants do not share Beane's (or saber's) view that closers can be easily replaced.  This to me means that the Giants, once they found their closer, will hold onto him as long as possible (and productive).  So I did not view that as a slight to Romo relative to Sabean's statement about LincecuCame here to share this link:  http://aroundthefoghorn.com/2013/07/19/vp-bobby-evans-on-siriusxm-on-vogey-pence-brown-and-a-note-on-romo/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Trending

Evans was interviewed, Schulman tweeted info, blogger covered the news and gave his views.  I think he did a nice job and a great service to Giants fans.

Vogie starts rehab in AA, shoot for return in early to mid August.  To me, that is big news, it is not that far from now potentially, the start of August is only 13 days away.  At that point, the Giants will have an interesting decision to make:  who losses their starting rotation job? 

Before it was easy to say Gaudin, as we need a long man, but he has one really well for us.  I agree with covechatter that it might be Zito, though my speculation on my blog was that he could be DFAed at that point, as we are still at a full 40-man and Vogie is on the 60-day DL and someone would have to be cleared off the island to bring back Vogie.  If Zito is DFAed, then I think Kickham would come up and be our long relief guy.

About Pence, I took it the opposite of the author, I viewed it as more that Evans hoped that we don't go south and have to consider such an issue.  But I agree that it was a non-comittal to Pence. 

I think the Giants are still on the fence, Pence's cold streak lately hasn't helped his cause, if he were still hitting like he were in April/May, I think it would be likely the Giants do pursue Pence, with QO at minimum, but I think they have a price in their head that they won't go over, and are willing to let free agency determine whether another team overpays for him or not. 

I still hope the Giants pursue Pence and be in the mix, but I don't want to pay him the market value that his arb awards portend, which is $17M per year.  Astros really screwed up with him on his arbs, set a bad precedence, I think.  But a 3-4 years deal in the $13-15M per year range is OK with me, as we need at least two good bats in the middle, Posey is clearly one, but Sandoval's weight and injury issues makes him iffy, and Belt, while he could be that bat for us someday, I don't know if he'll reach that point by the end of the season.

About Brown, that's been the Giants position with all prospects that they expect to play a significant role on the team in the near future, they have said that about Wilson, Bumgarner, Posey, at minimum that I remember.  They want them getting a lot of playing time and focused on improving themselves.

About Romo, I didn't take that to be a not solid commitment to Romo.  I view that more as an organizational stance, much like how Beane thinks closers are fungible and easily replaced.  This to me confirms that the Giants do not share Beane's (or saber's) view that closers can be easily replaced.  This to me means that the Giants, once they found their closer, will hold onto him as long as possible (and productive).  So I did not view that as a slight to Romo relative to Sabean's statement about Lincecum.

And speaking of Lincecum, if anything, Sabean's statement could be construed like the Pence statement, said in a different way.  In any case, I think the Giants feel that they will be close enough to battle to late in the season for relevancy, and they can't do that without Lincecum (or somebody in his place) pitching well enough, plus there is the potential for Lincecum to have a really nice second half, much like he did in 2012 when he led  the rotation in ERA until his last two bad starts, where his stamina issues finally took over.  So it is very unlikely to see him traded, I think.

Plus, I think the Giants still hope to work out something with Lincecum, depending on what the market bears for Tim.  They are not going to go crazy, but if the other teams make reasonable offers, I can see the Giants upping the contract value to resign Tim. 

Plus, top relievers are getting $14-15M per year right now.  The Giants could structure the deal to pay him, say, $16M per year, with $1M added on for each IP threshold that he makes, so that he makes, say, $22M per year if he's starting, but making good money for a reliever if not.  Maybe starting with the 25th start to the 30th start.

I believe that he can be a great super-reliever once he transitions over from starting.  We could have a closer, like most teams, but Tim would pitch based on what the team needs at the moment.  If they need a long man in the 2nd, he'll pitch that game.  But maybe the next day, they need someone to come in the 5th, and he can bridge to the setup relievers if necessary.  But maybe the setup guys are struggling to shut down things in the 7th or 8th, and like how the Giants used to bring in Wilson in the 8th to get 4 or 5 outs, he could do that as well.  Or if the closer is struggling, bring in Timmy as needed, depending on how Bochy and Rags assess the situation.  He could also be our extra innings guy, going 3-4-5 innings, as long as necessary to get that extra innings win, shutting down the other team. 

7 comments:

  1. Here's a good summation of Sabean's interview with the exact quotes (KNBR/Tolbert)

    http://www.bayareasportsguy.com/sabean-lincecum-tom-tolbert-eric-byrnes-giants-trade-deadline/

    I'd say the good thing to come out of this is the Gints are well aware of QO's to their impending FAs and will exact that price if nothing else. And it also bodes well that they'll make significant efforts to retain their talent first.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Always risky disagreeing with OGC, but no way the Giants submit to sentiment and sign a pitcher with no command or control.

    Change his name to Jimmy Jones, look at his stats, and let him go.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have no problem with good questions or disagreements in opinion. Maybe I'm getting more mellow with age? :^) Naaah!

      I don't think the Giants would submit to sentiment.

      If Lincecum had no command, he would not have a 9.5 K/9 nor a K/BB of 2.59, which is considered a measure of command.

      Also, he seems to be pretty close to figuring out the transition phase from throwing to pitching. Cain had been working on that since he first made the majors, but recent interviews tidbits show that Lincecum has not dealt with this issue until recently. As evidenced by the no-hitter, he can still put together a good game, but as evidenced by his start last nigh, he's still figuring things out.

      Even if he were done as a starter, I think that he can be very valuable as a reliever who has a rubber arm that can pitch dominantly at any point in a game and get you the tough outs, like he did in the playoffs. He was mostly a long reliever then, but over a long season he could be used in a lot of key situations, for a lot of innings, and a lot of appearances, allowing Bochy to rest his set-up relievers and closer more.

      Plus our long-relief guy would also be good enough to pitch crucial leveraged points in the game as well, saving a spot on the roster for the Giants to do other things with, like maybe having another bench player, for example, or to hold someone who would purely be a hitter off the bench, who could not field a position.

      Changing his name doesn't change his K/9 or K/BB or what he did in the playoffs last season, he's still valuable, potentially very valuable, and it behooves the Giants to keep Jimmy Jones or Lincecum around long enough to find out how valuable, if they can.

      I would note that I'm not suggesting the team goes all out to resign Lincecum. If a team goes crazy - and I'm looking at Sheriff Ned specifically - with a bid, then so be it, but assuming most GMs will be cautious in bidding for Lincecum, I think the Giants can beat that to hold onto Lincecum for another season or two, to see what Lincecum can do, and that using him in a reliever role, especially as I described, could deliver a lot of value, perhaps enough to cover much of his contract.

      For example, if we sign him to a QO, which is estimated at $13.5M, that is 2.7 WAR. A good closer could put up 2.0 WAR, but when he can pitch more innings, he could also deliver value via that avenue too. For example, Dick Tidrow provided 2.2 to 3.0 WAR for a number of years in the middle of his career. Goose Gossage delivered 2.3 to 6.0 WAR for many years during his career as a reliever, pitching in a lot of different circumstances, besides just closer or long relief.

      Delete
    2. Sorry, I don't see a useful ML pitcher, either compared to what he was, or just the raw numbers as per baseball-reference.

      http://tinyurl.com/kuym2kh

      07-11 vs 12-13

      WAR - Dn
      SO/9 - Dn
      K/BB - Dn
      WHIP - Up
      H/9 - Up
      HR/9 - Up
      BB/9 - Up
      BA - Up
      OBP - Up
      SLG - Up
      OPS - Up
      LD% - UP

      Runs Better than Replacement: -16 & -9

      WAR: -1.7 & -1.1

      A QO of 13 million for that makes no sense to me.

      His LD% of 27 this year tells the story of a straight 91mph FB not controlled in the zone.

      Pains me to say it, (only player I ever paid to see in the Minors), but he's not a good pitcher anymore.

      Delete
    3. Nothing to be sorry about, I understand disagreement about Lincecum.

      Of course, if you compare any player against the years he was the best in the majors, he will show up poorly. No use looking at his prior goodness, and that should not affect how you look at his future goodness either.

      LD% for a season does not hold up year to year, typically.

      What I'm going by is his PQS performances. He's been able to strike out guys at a high rate plus do enough of the other things pitchers need to do for a good performance. He's just been inconsistent when he can be most hurt by it. But pitchers who can be very good can strike out a lot of batters, it is more, to me, a matter of figuring out how to correctly utilize his remaining skills.

      I will agree that there is a risk to doing the QO, but as I noted, relievers who can pitch a lot of innings and well, can amass a high enough WAR to justify a $14M QO.

      I am actually anticipating that he won't produce enough WAR to justify his QO.

      What I really want to see is 1) whether Lincecum can finish his transition from thrower to pitcher, and 2) if not, whether we can transition him to super-reliever role, like the way pitchers used to do it in the 70's.

      I think that transition is part of why he's throwing straight 91 MPH FB not controlled in the zone. When you are learning a new skill, that is what happens, you don't throw the way you had practiced a thousand times before. It causes you to be inconsistent in execution and performance. But that he's still able to strike out so many batters still shows that he still has a very strong skill left that could help in transitioning.

      I would hate that he finishes the transition and then is great for someone else. He did over and beyond for us in his pre-arb seasons, we can overpay him one season to find out if he can harness his diminishing skills into something that is still good for a team.

      And to repeat, a good pitcher is someone who can strike out over 9 K/9, as Lincecum can, it is then a matter of harnessing that ability and channeling it correctly. I think the Giants are near enough to finding out one way or the other that I would keep him around if at all possible, though if someone goes crazy, I will let him go.

      Delete
  3. Giants call up Surkamp using their extra 26th man allowance for doubleheaders, but called up Yusmeiro Petit and sent down Kontos, to cover themselves for long relief.

    Petit's call up requires a corresponding 40 man roster move. As you'll recall we just DFAed Huston (and the Giants apparently just released him rather than keep him in the system) in order to clear up space for Casilla.

    I have no idea what the Giants are going to do, will be interesting and it will probably hurt even more than losing Huston. My best guess before was Runzler and I guess that is what I'll stick with as speculation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Giants designated Hunter Strickland for assignment. He's been on the DL for most of the season, which presumably will discourage other teams from picking him up and placing him on their 40 man roster. But his numbers were really great for the Giants when he was pitching, but SSS, so there is that.

      Delete

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