Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Sickel's Prelim 2013 Top 50 Hitters and Pitchers

John Sickels recently published his Preliminary 2013 Top 50 Hitters and Pitchers lists on his blog.

No Giants hitters made the list, but two Giants pitchers did:
  • #36:  Kyle Crick, RHP
  • #38:  Clayton Blackburn, RHP
He also reviewed his 2012 lists (Hitters 1, Hitters 2, Pitchers 1, Pitchers 2)

Here are the descriptions he gave on the one Giants prospect that made last year's list:
  • 20) Gary Brown, OF, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+: Hit .279/.347/.385 with 40 walks, 87 strikeouts in 538 at-bats for Double-A Richmond. Stole 33 but was caught 18 times, way too many for a guy with his speed.


ogc thoughts

Not too surprising.  The Giants major prospects either graduated early (Posey and Bumgarner) or was traded (Wheeler) when the 2012 season started, leaving Brown, Panik, and Joseph as the top prospects.  And while they are good, they are not major prospects, though Brown has that potential and that is why he made the list for the 2012 season.  But his poor 2012 season (at least it started poor, which colored his stats all season) sunk his prospect status for 2013.  And I agree, getting caught 18 times is way too many for a guy with his speed (he's as fast getting to 1B as most LHB, and he's RH).

But as the status dipped for our hitting prospects, our young pitchers from 2011's draft rose to prominence, Crick and Blackburn, both in Augusta (A-ball).

Crick had a good if wild year.  In 22 starts and 1 relief, the 19 YO had a 2.51 ERA in 111.1 IP, giving up 75 hits and 67 walks, striking out 128 with only 1 HR given up.  That's a 10.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and 1.91 K/BB, which is not that great, but close to the 2.0 that you want your pitchers at or above.   But wow, that's a 0.08 HR/9 rate, which is great.  And that is because he had an 45.9% GB%, 23.6% FB%, and 18.3% LD%, with a 9.7% IF%, those are pretty good, as the league averages were 45.9% GB%, 28.1% FB%, 17.1% LD%, and 6.6% IF%.  His HR per Flyball and Linedrive was 0.9% (league average was 5.5%).  His FIP as a starter was 3.22 vs. league average of 3.88, and his TRA was 4.30 vs. 5.07 league average (True Runs Allowed, if I remember my acronyms right).

Blackburn  had a very good year too.  In 22 starts, the 19 YO had a 2.54 ERA in 131.1 IP (basically averaged 6 IP per start), giving up 116 hits and only 18 walks, striking out 143 with only 3 HR given up.  That's a 9.8 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, and 7.94 K/BB, a great ratio, and a great 0.2 HR/9 rate.  He was even better than Crick, as he had a 56.8% GB%, 16.1% FB%, and 18.8% LD%, with a 5.3% IF%, better than league average in GB% and FB%, though worse LD% and IF%.  His HR per Flyball and Linedrive was 2.4% (5.5% league average), so that was good as well.  His FIP was 2.12 (vs. 3.88) and his TRA was 2.85 (5.07 league average).

I would also point out a few names among the pitchers to keep an eye out on as well:
  • Brett Bochy, RHP
  • Chris Heston, RHP
  • Andrew Leenhoouts, LHP
  • Mason McVay, LHP
  • Jacob Dunnington, RHP
  • Martin Agosta, RHP
  • Chris Stratton, RHP:  in particularly, our first round draft pick for 2012, was a bit wild in his pro debut, though.  
Looking through the stats, the top prospect hitters by OPS were the following:
  • Mac Williamson, 21, RF:  In Salem-Keizer, he hit .342/.392/.596/.988, with 7 HR in 114 AB (16.3 AB/HR).  In addition, he only had 19 K's, for a 83.3% contact rate, which is good, as the league average was 77.0% contact rate.  He was average age so he was pretty good for the league.  That's showing some promise.
  • Roger Kieschnick, 25, RF:  In AAA Fresno, he hit .295/.361/.581/.942, with 15 HR in 234 AB (15.6 AB/HR).  He was as free swinging as usual, 73 K's for a 68.8% contact rate.  That is much lower than the 79.7% league average, so that is not good.  But he was 1-2 years younger than the competition, so that's a good sign as well.  If he didn't get injured (which has been his problem as a pro), he probably would have been called up at some point in 2012 and gotten some ABs, since Schierholtz wasn't doing it in RF and we did not get Pence until later in the season.  
  • Angel Villalona, 21, 1B:  He's baaack!  He only played in the Dominican Summer League, but it's a good start, as he hit .303/.430/.497/.927 there, with 7 HR in 155 AB (22 AB/HR).  While the average age there was 18.5 for the hitters and 18.9 for the pitchers, developmentally he last had experience as an 18 YO, so they should be equivalent in terms of years of competition, and behind them because he hadn't played professionally for over two seasons.  Plus, this league is a pitcher's league, the league average batting line was .243/.337/.330/.667.  He was 8th overall in OPS, though the oldest among the leaders who hit a lot better than he did.  But again, he has been out for two seasons, and he's still only 21 YO.  He needs to get his visa - now that he's proven himself to be an elite athlete by having the 8th best OPS and 7th most HR in the DSL - then come back to the States and restart in Augusta probably, he would be approximately the right age there, but the Giants will probably promote him aggressively if he's hitting very well there, to San Jose, and perhaps AA Richmond if he continues, as he probably would have made AA by now had his career not been interrupted by his murder charge.
Other Top Hitting Prospects included:
  • Gary Brown, 23, CF:  In AA, he only hit .277/.342/.383/.725, with 7 HR in 538 AB (77 AB/HR) and 33 SB but 18 CS (very poor 65% success rate; best base stealers are at 80%+).  However, there were some mitigating circumstances that raises back up his status from that overall picture.  First,  he hit much better after a horrible April and May, where he had a .614 OPS and .628 OPS, then bumped up nicely to .759 OPS in June and a sizzling .959 OPS in July, before petering out with a .636 OPS in August (and poor numbers in 2 games in September).  He had a very debilitating illness from the AFL last season, a bad flu, and he went from 190 pounds to 170 pounds.  I have to think that he physically petered out by the end, much like Posey at the end of his second season as a pro in 2010.  But he will need to prove that in 2013.  Also, he hit a lot better at home than on the road in AA, .783 OPS vs. .673 OPS on the road.  I've read that Richmond is a neutral park, but AA is a pitcher's league, so I find his split here to be encouraging, though not great.  In any case, his wOBA away was still a nice .299 and his home a good .348.  He's playing in the AFL again, so his performance there will probably decide where he goes in 2013.
  • Joe Panik, 21, SS:  In Advanced A, he hit .297/.368/.402/.770, which is not considered that good for a hitters league.  However, I would note that he had a great 90% contact rate, with only 54 K's in 535 AB, and had more BB's than K's, with 58.  In a league where the average age was roughly 23, he was on average two years younger, so he actually did pretty well, in my assessment.  Still, he was 36th in BA and 39th in OBP, but 11th and 10th among those 21 and younger.  He had a bad April (.614 OPS) but then a nice three months, .772 OPS, .772 OPS, .743 OPS, then a great August, .936 OPS.  I have to think that he has already earned a promotion to AA with that performance.
Overall, the Giants are not as well stocked as previously, but there is a world's difference between getting picks like Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner, Wheeler in the first 10 picks, vs. Brown, Panik, Crick, later in the first round, and Blackburn, much later.  The farm is nicely stocked considering this reality, with Crick and Blackburn looking good, and Stratton and Agosta looking promising, and I still think Brown and Panik are future starters at CF and 2B respectively.  And Kieschnick, Williamson, and Villalona look like they have a chance to do something in the majors at some point.  

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