Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Final Mock Draft Projections for 2009 Draft

Both Jonathan Mayo's final projection and Baseball America's Mock Draft 4.0 have the Giants selecting Tyler Matzek.

Mayo's final notes are short and succinct:
There was some word that Matzek might drop a few spots, but there wasn't enough to change the pick.

Apparently the rumor that Ackley might fall is still just a faint rumor, he still has the Mariners selecting him, with the caveat that it could blow up on the signability front, but that was always there, he has Boras as his agent.

Baseball America commented:

6. GIANTS. San Francisco needs hitting more than pitching and has spent a
lot of time working on college outfielders Wheeler, A.J. Pollock (Notre Dame)
and Brett Jackson (California). But a team picking this high almost always takes
the best player available, and the Giants aren't afraid of negotiating with
tough signs, so that should lead them to Matzek. Zack Wheeler may be Plan B.

Projected Pick: TYLER MATZEK.

They also noted some last minute posturing on bonuses:

According to multiple team sources, several of the draft's best high school players blew them away when they revealed their price tags. California lefthander Tyler Matzek, the best prep prospect in the draft, wants "precedent-setting money," which is interpreted to mean that he wants to surpass the record $7 million guarantee for a high schooler given to Josh Beckett and Rick Porcello. Texas righthander Shelby Miller, previously believed to be signable for around MLB's bonus recommendations, is asking for $4 million.

New Jersey outfielder Mike Trout (upwards of $2.5 million), Texas outfielder Slade Heathcott (upwards of $2 million), Florida third baseman Bobby Borchering ($2 million) and North Carolina catcher Wil Myers ($2 million) all want top-10-pick money. Oklahoma southpaw Chad James seeks $1.75 million. Previously, Missouri righty Jacob Turner and Texas lefty Matt Purke alluded to Porcello money, while Georgia outfielder Donavan Tate will cost $6 million or more.

Giants Thoughts

It appears that the consensus is that the Giants will select Tyler Matzek. If the rumor is correct about what he is asking for, I don't see the Giants paying that much for him, I think they will stick to around slot, which was $2.4M last year and with Selig's 10% decrease, now $2.16M for 2009. It is not like Matzek is considered that good a starter. I have not see any buzz on him equivalent to what I saw about Porcello. He is good but not that good, it seems to me.

Still, the scouting report that Mayo put together on him is really strong, so it is not like he is without credentials. Here is his report again, I will put some highlights below:

Fastball:Matzek was 90-94 from the windup and 86-88 from the stretch, though he touched 92 and 93, adding and subtracting when he wanted to.
Control:It wasn't pinpoint, but overall it was good. He left a few balls up in the zone. He tried to throw one curve for a strike and the harder curve to chase and was above-average with that
Poise:He was very business-like on the mound, focused on the task at hand. He seems to respond to the situation.
Physical Description:Matzek has a natural, athletic build with strength in his legs and hips. He's lean, but showed some good weight in his core area.
Strengths:He has everything you'd want to see within him, including at least three average or above pitches. When he wants to, he has a really good idea of how to pitch.
Weaknesses:Sometimes seems like he just does what he needs to do to get by. He may have been throwing to the gun too much in the past.
Summary:When Matzek is locked in, it's easy to argue that he's one of the -- if not the -- top high school lefty in this Draft class. With a fastball that reaches 95 mph and two different breaking pitches, he's got the tools necessary to succeed. The one knock is that it seems at times that he's just doing enough to get by. When focused, he really knows how to pitch and put away hitters. It's a package that should go pretty quickly on Draft day.

From this report, it seems like what has been seen from him could be just a taste of what he can do. He has been clearly better than his competition but, unfortunately, has played down to the competition and situation sometimes. That's not a good trait to have, you want a guy (like Bumgarner and Alderson) who are competitive-minded. Still, when someone is extremely talented, that typically trumps a poor trait like that.

And in a recent playoff game, he was dominating, though a little wild. In the first inning, Matzek's fastball was in the 94-96 MPH range, reaching 97, with an 87 slider and 81 curve (see BA account). He pitching 7 innings, allowing only 2 hits, 3 walks, and striking out 7, and still throwing 93 MPH fastball and 77 curve at the end. They noted that he was "quietly intense" so that is a good sign, plus he had his team's only two hits, which pitchers should concentrate on since if they can just be a marginal MLB hitter, it would be such an advantage that it would add at least 2 wins to his net W/L.

I don't see the Giants pulling any other player out of their hat unless someone falls to them from above, like Ackley, Tate, or Crow. Green has lost a lot of steam and could even fall to us with our second round pick, the way it seems, as he's now slated for the supplementary first round in the BA mock, though Mayo has the A's selecting him (really don't see that because Boras is his agent and the A's keep a tight hold on their purse strings). I think a college bat like Tim Wheeler would be a stronger possibility for the A's, or perhaps 3B Bobby Borchering, since Chavez looks done, though Borchering is only in High School, so he'll be a long term project.

I also still wonder if the Giants are interested in Shelby Miller. He's a fireballer from Texas, but has not been tied to extravagent bonus demands, like many of the other top prospects.

Also, I wonder if the Giants might have in their back pocket the option of not signing someone this season and accepting the 7th pick from next year. That would give them two picks in the first round of next year's draft, and perhaps the number of hitting prospects will be closer to 2008 than 2009. I am sure the Giants would have loved to select Justin Smoak or Gerald Beckham with their 6th pick this season or 7th pick next season, which they could have done in last year's draft had they the 6th pick then.

4 comments:

  1. Jonathan Mayo has been twittering @JonathanMayoB3, and apparently the Orioles have changed their focus to Matt Hobgood, which makes Zack Wheeler available to the Giants, and Mayo now have them choosing him instead, with Matzek likely falling deeper into the draft.

    He is also a High School pitcher, and here is the short comment on him:

    If you like projectable high school pitchers with a lot of arm strength -- and a lot of teams do -- then Wheeler might be the guy for you. The Georgia prepster has plenty of fastball and does show a plus breaking ball at times. Because of some delivery issues, his command can be spotty, but he's an excellent athlete with terrific poise and makeup. He might be a little bit of a project, but the upside is considerable.

    Here is a link to his full scouting report: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/reports.jsp?content=wheeler

    Oh, and here is his strengths: He has big-time arm strength and flashes a plus curve. He's a baseball rat with excellent makeup.

    That's something the Giants like in their prospects, good makeup. I like that he's a baseball rat.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mayo on target thus far with his picks made just before the draft. He especially called the Pirates change to Sanchez. Let's see how he does with Orioles change...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Mayo called it again! Matthew Hobgood selected by the Orioles.

    ReplyDelete
  4. welcome to the giants zach wheeler!

    ReplyDelete

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