Saturday, November 07, 2015

Your 2016 Giants: 40-man Roster Moves

Beyond the Aoki non-option, I realized that I should mention other roster moves that had been made recently.  The Giants outrighted Juan Perez, Nick Noonan, Jackson Willilams, and Brett Bochy, which opened up spots for guys the Giants brought off of the 60-day DL, which was necessary once the World Series was won by the Royals (Congrats!), allowing Joe Panik, Andrew Susac, and Hector Sanchez back on the 40-man.  Juan Perez was also brought off the 60-day DL, then was waivered and passed through.  Oh, and I recall that Kevin Frandsen was released as well, at some point.

It appears that Perez was placed back on the AAA roster after passing through waivers.  No news on what is happening with Noonan, Williams, or Bochy.

ogc thoughts

I would guess that Noonan is probably gone, with Frandsen.  They were only here because they were dropped mid-season and wanted a familiar place to land at, would be my guess.   They will be looking for a backup MI role somewhere, and we are full up with Tomlinson and Adrianza.

Williams might stick around, but with Trevor Brown's rising star, not sure where he would land if he returns.  But he spent the season in AA, so it appears that he's flexible with where he goes, so I would not be surprised if he returns.  However, he hit well enough that perhaps another team might give him a chance to be their backup catcher on their MLB roster, as he's pretty good defensively.  He wasn't that bad a hitter in college, and took a lot of walks in the minors, so who knows, he could be one of those catchers who figure out hitting as he reaches his 30's and get to stick around in the majors for a while.

Roster Count

I count 32 players on the 40-man right now (for some reason, Byrd is still on there, and I did not count him).  Blackburn should be added this off-season, I believe, it has been four years since he was drafted.  They also need space for 1-2 SP and probably a starting LF.  That gets us up to 36 spots taken, which means four spots for prospects.

Apologies if I get anything wrong, but here are some thoughts.  There were a couple of other prospects from the 2011 draft where we picked up Blackburn, so their four years should be up too.  Crick should be needing to be added too.  And Derek Law is from the same draft too, and should be added as well.  That would get us to 38 spots.

That leaves two spots open.  That would get them ready to take someone in the Rule 5 draft, if anyone interests them (they take a flier every 4-5 years, roughly).  They might want to get a good bench player who they could count on to get a hit or on-base.

With two to five possible free agents the Giants might sign, talk about perhaps trades to fill requirements, it should be an interesting Hot Stove season for the Giants.

Go Giants!

2 comments:

  1. Law is already on.

    Add Blackburn.
    Add Biagini.

    Crick, no unless there's nobody better to put on.

    Candidates for removal (for various reasons besides the Giants losing interest in them): Gearrin & Broadway (very crowded relief situation in the minors), Petit (may not be tendered), Sanchez (looks like he's not going to make it), Parker & Williamson (both have options).

    So the roster could easily get down to 24. Not saying it will. Just I think the Giants are in good shape to re-stock/upgrade in FA and can easily protect their best assets on the club and in the farm system.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for the correction!

      I don't think they will protect Biagini. This is his first good season, and his BABIP of .266 this season suggests that he was extremely lucky this season. Not that BABIP regress to any particular mean in the minors, but that type of low BABIP is definitely not going to be sustainable at higher levels. And compared to the league's BABIP of .307, he severely beat the average.

      Now, there is no mean to regress to per se in the minors that I've ever read about. A leading sabermetrician, Mike Fast, now works for Astros, and noted that working in industry exposed him to insights like this: BABIP regression holds at the MLB level (for the most part, I would note that some, like Zito and Cain, are able to avoid hits, some do have that skill) but pitchers in the minors are still learning how to prevent hits, and make it to the majors, and thus it is hard to evaluate prospects by looking at BABIP.

      However, I think some things can be said about BABIP. Obviously, at some point a pitcher needs to get his BABIP below .300, at some level. And I would say that being below the league's BABIP is a possible sign that he's due for regression, though it is possible he has figured out something and showing good skills for higher levels.

      For Biagini, his BABIP has been on the high side for his career, .320-.330's, suggesting that perhaps this was an outlier of a season. Perhaps he finally figured something out, but his K/9 was not that good for any league and was way below the league average.

      The good thing is that his K/BB is 2.47, which is high for the league, so that is good.

      Crick still has a lot of skills that are other teams would want, and at minimum, would bring back a good prospect in trade if need be. I think that he could still make the majors. I don't the rules regarding Rue 5 to the Nth degree, so perhaps there is some scenario you are referring to where we don't risk losing him, but he's still definitely a worthy prospect, in my view, at minimum a power reliever but I still think he can figure things out as a starting pitcher.

      I agree about Guerrin and Broadway. I had noted Petit might not be around in certain scenarios in recent posts, so I agree there as well. Same with Sanchez.

      Regarding Parker and Williamson, I'm referring to the 40-man roster, not the 25-man roster. Yes, they have plenty of options.

      I didn't address who might get dropped first because it seems like there is plenty of space right now to handle the expected influx of players to the 25-man roster. But, again, agree with your assessment of the first guys off the 40-man roster if we do need space, thanks for pointing out.

      And thanks for your comment, Happy Holidays!

      Delete

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