- Cody Ross: $6.3M (last year of arb)
- Jonathan Sanchez: $4.8M (second year)
- Ramon Ramirez: $1.65M (last year)
Ross got around what I thought he would, based on most commentary I saw when Giants picked him up. Most noted that Ross would earn $6M in arbitration and if you tack on salary inflation, that is roughly what he got. That also fit into arbitration theory, which states that Y1 arbs get 40% of value, Y2 arbs get 60%, and Y3 arbs get 80%, and he roughly got the same value as in 2010 with bump up from 60% to 80% plus some salary inflation.
Sanchez got less than I thought. With his good 2010, I thought that might tilt his salary higher, into at least $6-8M range, based on a $10-12M value range for what he can do. He still got a great raise (he made $2.1M last season) though.
Hopefully this is just to get him signed and avoid arbitration, and now they can build this into a multi-year deal going into his free agent season(s). But I would guess that Dirty's agent will not want to settle for what he got now, he would rather have Sanchez have another great season similar to 2010 (low 3's ERA in particular) and get a really big raise in Y3 arbs plus maybe into free agent years.
I'm hoping the Giants at least broach the subject with Sanchez and be willing to push the money higher to get a multi-year signed. I think he should be able to repeat a similar season, and if we got him signed for, say, another year plus option after the 2011 season, we should be able to trade him for a big package of prospects similar to the A's Haren deal, maybe with Royals or Pirates, they both have a lot of young and good prospects.
Ramirez got what arb theory suggests from Y2 to Y3, I think, roughly 43% raise, with 33.3% from move from Y2 to Y3 and salary inflation covering the rest.
Remaining Arbitration Cases
Three more down, only three more to go. Hank Schulman tweets AP report on arb bids/offers:
- Andres Torres: $1.8M/$2.6M
- Javier Lopez: $2.0M/$2.875M
- Santiago Casilla: $1.0M/$1.65M
For Lopez, his side is basically asking for the same base value as he got in 2009 (but with higher Y3 multiplier), while the Giants are pricing in the risk that 2009's performance puts into the equation. At $2M, the Giants are already giving him a 50% raise, which is pretty good. I think they will also meet in the middle, as well, maybe $2.5M.
Not sure what Santiago Casilla's problem is other than the old fashion difference in opinion on what he is worth. He probably wants a salary like a proven set-up reliever who is now in arb, while the Giants has more of a wait and see attitude given that was his first season of good performance, and not even a full season. He probably got the league minimum or so in 2010, slightly more than $400K, and the Giants more than doubled it in their offer. Hopefully they can split the difference, but my guess is that the Giants are going to hold to their guns if Casilla's side is sticking close to that request of $1.6M. I expect another meet in the middle at $1.35M.
But as I noted, the Giants in the Sabean era has avoided arbitration with all but AJ, so I expect signings to happen before the cases get put in front of arbitration. As was reported (by Hank Schulman I believe), the Giants are focusing on one year deals with everyone. That makes sense for both sides, particularly the players in these cases, as they hope that their players can perform well again and get a bigger raise next season, particularly for those going free agents.
As I noted above, I hope the Giants can sign Sanchez to a multi-year deal, which would set up a Haren-type bidding for Sanchez's services after the 2011 season. A big stash of young, good prospects right around there would be a perfect time for an injection of talent into the farm system given that the Giants hope to be pennant contenders for the near future and thus would not be getting good draft picks in terms of probability of getting a good player. Those players would then be maturing in the 2013-2016 timeframe, when we start losing guys to free agency, particularly Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez (I expect Cain to stick around for most of his career).
Assuming they sign for roughly mid-point as I speculated above, that would be 19 players totalling $114.8M in payroll. Add 6 more roster spots at $450M average, that is a total payroll of $117.5M (or $115.9M if Rowand's salary only counts for $12M in 2011; dispute over how bonuses are allocated, I would lean towards $115.9M). That is roughly $15-20M more than the payroll in 2010. The money the team made in the playoffs probably counts for $10-15M of that increase, so the Giants, on relative terms, isn't raising their payroll that drastically, and probably could handle another $5-10M if there was a player worth getting in that range and a roster spot. At this point, I would rather they stick with what we got and save it for the future, when we hopefully sign Lincecum, Cain, and other young players to long-term deals.