Your 2010 Giants are in the Playoffs: Round 1: Beating the Braves

Wow, some would describe the season as torture, but for many Giants fans, almost any season is torture because they are like that character in Lil' Abner which has the cloud following him everywhere or that character in the animated series of Gulliver's Travels in the 70's who always exclaimed, "It'll never work!"

Any season where the Giants are competitive for the division title (and thus the playoffs) is never torture for me.  It is bliss.  Torture to me is more when you know your team is one of the worse around and there is no prospect who looks like he would provide a future for us.  That was like the 70's and 80's where among our "top" prospects were journeyman players like Larry Hearndon, Dan Gladden, Rich Murray, Joe Strain, Bill Laskey, to name but a few, who actually would have been OK pieces on a competitive team, probably, but with only Jack Clark making it up the system as a good player, and I guess I would add Scott Garrelts, they were woefully inadequate.  This season was anything but torture for me.

The 2010 Giants were an exciting team to watch, as they took their tentative steps early in the season, then developed as the season went deep into the playoff chase.  It was like watching your newborn son, who took his first tentative steps last season, suddenly wanted to start running.  You see him stubble a bit early, but as he got his legs and sense of balance, finally you see the results of his hard work as he finally ran across the room and made it to the door and opened it.

They opened it and now are in the playoffs against the Braves, which will be a tough opponent - any playoff contender will be tough - but among the Phillies, Reds, and Braves, you want the Braves because they have been reeling for a long while now and got into the playoffs on fumes.  They finally eked out a final win on the final day to help their cause, but had to wait until the Giants beat the 'Dres to see if they got into the playoffs or not.

The MLB.com has a nice rundown of the two teams here (they like the Giants), but I'll give some commentary below as well.  The key point they make is that the Braves lineup now is nothing like it was earlier in the season, i.e. not as good, and likewise the Giants, only it is much better now,  a point I make below.

Game 1:  Derek Lowe vs. Lincecum

I was going to write about my thoughts about Lincecum's history in pitching in "first times", but Cam Inman in the San Jose Mercury captured that pretty well in his article on that same topic here.  Basically, Lincecum has usually been over-amped for each of his "first time" and tend to be very wild.  The key will be whether Posey can calm the wild bronco and ride him in.  Seeing how he's been handling Sanchez the past month plus, I think that while Lincecum will be wild, Posey will be helping to minimize the damage.  Still, big damage can be done when there is a lot of walks and runners on base.

Lowe on the other hand is a savvy vet who has pitched in playoff situations many times in his career.  And he has done very well for the most part.  But that's also comforting too, that he has had his problems in the playoffs too.  And even when pitching well, he does give up runs, it is not like he shuts down the other team that often.  And I think the reason he got the call to pitch first against the Giants is his 1.80 ERA here in AT&T Park,   He has pitched very well here, but he was pretty lucky in his last start here, this season, when he walked 7 batters.  He does something like that again, we now have Posey, Burrell, Torres, Sanchez, in the lineup, as he did that to us in basically the first weeks of the season.  And Huff was feeling his way around back then too.  Mainly it was Molina and Sandoval who were hitting back then, oh, and Uribe too.

The key to winning is Lincecum (and Posey) overcoming his initial wildness and over-amping as Lincecum can take on Lowe when he is at his best.  If they can dodge the bullets early on, Lincecum should be able to recover and shut down the Braves.  Then it would be up to the Giants offense to score enough runs while the bullpen holds off the Braves, in order to win the game.

And each game is very important to win.  But the Giants has actually been doing this for the past month, so it is not completely new to them, as they have been playing in a playoff series atmosphere for a long while now.  It should not be old hat for them yet, but it should help with the early jitters, hopefully.

Game 2:  Tommy Hanson vs. Cain

I think the reverse of Game 1 happens here.  Not that Cain is as vet as Lowe, but he's been incredibly steady this whole season and is the longest tenure Giant now, while this is Hanson's first season in the majors.  Hanson has never pitched in AT&T Park, but has handled the Giants well in two starts in Atlanta, though he was a bit lucky this season because he only got 3 strikeouts.  And he's been a very good pitcher in the short season and a half that he's been around, but despite a good ERA this season, his win/loss is about .500, as the Braves failed to score for him enough to win a lot of games.   That is reminiscent of how the Giants wasn't scoring for Cain.

So the key here is which team will score enough for their hard-luck pitcher?

Game 3:  Tim Hudson vs. Sanchez

Hudson was actually their best pitcher this season, but because they needed him to pitch on the last day of the season to get into the playoffs, they had to pitch him later in the series.  Plus, he wasn't all that good the last month of the season, with a 5.32 ERA, which is probably a bigger reason why he's third, as both Lowe and Hanson been very good in September, 1.17 and 1.81 ERA respectively.  And he's been up and down against the Giants throughout his career.

Sanchez was actually our best starter in the last month, with a 1.01 ERA, followed closely by Bumgarner's 1.13 ERA.  Lincecum had a 1.94 ERA and Cain was actually 4th with a 3.29 ERA, probably because of his last start.  Sanchez has been beat up by Atlanta in Atlanta, but he totally dominated them K/9 and K/BB overall, so that was a big flukey result plus he really matured the last month of the season, he's not the pitcher he was earlier in the season.  Plus, he basically pitched a playoff game on Sunday, as it was do or die to move on that day, and he came through in spades.

If the pitchers of September show up, the Giants have this game easy, but if it is the pitchers of their careers, then it will be another battle.

Giants Thoughts

And each game will be a battle.  The playoffs are much different beasts, so there is so many possibilities that it is near impossible to say which team will win.  The pluses for the Giants are that their pitchers have been on a monthlong roll, pitching in pressure packed situations and they have come through.  And their hitting, led by ROY candidate Buster Posey, have come through enough to lead to a 20-10 Red Thong record.

With the Giants pitching, they should have the advantage over most teams in the playoffs, but this being their first one, who knows how amped up they are going to be, and how wild they are going to be.   And once the Giants are behind, will the offense be able to pick up the pitchers?

Should a fourth game be necessary, I don't see how the Giants don't go with Lincecum.  If they are ahead 2-1, they would want to go for the win with Lincecum, not Bumgarner.  If they are behind 1-2 and on the brink, then they definitely want to go with Lincecum for the win.  It is possible that the Giants might go with Bumgarner in a 2-1 situation, to give him the opportunity to experience that situation, since they would then have Lincecum to pitch in game 5, but I think the Giants would go for the kill at that point, should they get there.

I think the offense will be led by Posey, Torres, Burrell.  Huff and Sanchez will hopefully be contributing, as well as Sandoval, if he's not over-trying.  The offense has been enough for over a month now, but will it be enough for the playoffs where the pitching should be better?  I think it will be enough, they have faced tough rotations as the season winded down, and been able to beat one guy while our pitching would beat another guy, giving the Giants a 2-1 series win.  The key here, obviously, is that you need 3 wins in the playoffs, meaning the Giants would need to win one of the remaining two.  You have to like their chances but it is no slam dunk either.

Go Giants!

Your 2010 Giants Won the NL West

I know, old news.  I was off to LA-LA Land for the Land de Disney and, best laid plans of PC and man, I thought I would be able to post from there, but the wireless connection there was slower than phone modem, I was barely able to read about Saturday's and Sunday's results using MLB.com's narrowbandwidth content, let along try to post anything.

Giants Win 2010 NL Western Division Title

Who would have thunk that one in spring training?  And that Jonathan Sanchez would be the one to win the clincher with a good game?  And that Posey would be homering in it too?  If that and his guidance of the pitching staff to end the season on such a high note don't win him the Rookie of the Year award, I don't know what will.

What I did know was that the Giants had a good staff, particularly with Sanchez developing further and Bumgarner taking his place on that staff to make it a great rotation.  I just didn't know how historically good it would be, with its great run of 18 straight games of 3 runs or less, best in the modern era of baseball (post-1920).  But as I've been saying for the past two seasons, with a pitching staff as good as the Giants, we won't need much of an offense to reach 90+ wins.  And 90+ wins usually puts you right in the mix of things for the playoffs and the division title.

Giants Play Braves In First Round of Playoffs

Not only that, but the Giants knock the Poseur Pouty Padres out of the playoffs with their win over them on Sunday, creating the best scenario for the Giants in the playoffs:  Giants play host to stagnant Braves while the Phillies and Reds knock each other silly.  Both the Padres and Braves fell back to the pack and both came close to being pushed out of the playoffs.   That plus home advantage should give the Giants a great chance to beat the Braves in the first round.

Meanwhile, hopefully the Reds would take down the Phillies (harder now that Halladay pitched a NO-HITTER against the Reds in their first game) and set up a great match with Dusty's Reds against the Giants, as the Phillies are a tough team.  Still, the Giants took on the Phillies and beat Halladay, plus gave Oswalt a lot of losses this season as well as beating Hamels too.  And was real close to winning the season's series, settling for a split.  So the Giants should give a good series with the Phillies as well as the Reds, should they make the second round of the playoffs.

2010 Giants

So many highlights, but I'll mention the top ones, in my opinion:

• Pitching Rotation:  superlatives are lacking, but the good news is that it is just beginning and we control them for at least the next couple of seasons, if not more.  They all deserve shoutouts for one thing or another during the season.
• Closer:  Wilson ties Shooter's team record of 48 saves, and I thought he had no chance of tying when I saw speculation on that.
• Bullpen:  was out of this world in September, just like rotation, should be key in playoffs, I think and they are well rested.
• Posey:  ROY or bust!
• Torres:  Willie Mac award winner saved our bacon and season.
• Huff:  Comeback award?
• Burrell:  Co-comeback award?  

Your 2010 Giants Magic Number is 1

What a season, what a great playoff stretch - literally with Huff's red Rally Thong (read about at ExtraBaggs; it is 19-8 so far) - the Giants are on the precipice of making the playoffs for the first time since 2003.  None of the Giants from that team are still on the active roster, though JT Snow is now a special assistant to Neukom and Aurilia does the pre-game show for the Comcast TV broadcasts (and probably does other TV stuff too, I bet, I don't have cable). 

Speaking of ExtraBaggs, there were a lot of good info there, some of which I'll excerpt here, please read the whole post for his great writing, stories, lots of funny stuff, and, most important of all, Giants information:

-  Bruce Bochy has gone with a set lineup recently, but he acknowledged there would be a few changes with a left-hander, Clayton Richard, going today.

-  You probably know that Tim Lincecum will join Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn as the only pitchers since World War II to lead the NL in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons.

Here’s another amazing Lincecum strikeout stat: He has 907 career strikeouts – the most by any player in his first four seasons since 1883.

Dwight Gooden struck out 892 in his first four seasons (in 924.1 innings). Lincecum has more, and in just 811 innings.

And from a team standpoint, the Giants staff has fanned 1,306 this season, breaking the franchise record of 1,302 that was set last season.

-  Here’s the full list of Willie Mac honorees who will gather today when the Giants recognize this year’s winner: Larry Herndon, Darrell Evans, Mike Krukow, Dave Dravecky, Robby Thompson, Mike Felder, Kirt Manwaring, Mark Leiter, Shawon Dunston, J.T. Snow, Jeff Kent, Marvin Benard and David Bell.

The most important attendee, Willie McCovey, will be there, I’m told. After all he’s gone through while recovering from a major, 12-hour back surgery in August, there might not be many dry eyes on the field.

One unfortunate consequence of moving up Matt Cain to pitch today: He might not be able to participate in the ceremony. Cain was last year’s winner.

This year’s team has no shortage of inspirational candidates. Andres Torres, Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell and Huff would seem to be the players who’ve had the biggest influence in the clubhouse or have inspired the most with their attitude and play.

San Diego Series

Giants just need to win one to win the NL West division title and beat cry-baby Mat Latos' 'Dres.  The Giants shuffle rotation to put our biggest gun left against the 'Dres, as San Diego faces our gaunlet of pitchers.

Game 1:  Clayton Richard vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  Richard has been inconsistent in September, going 1-3 in five starts with a 5.27 ERA despite tossing a shutout and six innings of one-run ball during that span. He's 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in five starts against the Giants this season.

Giants: Cain flirted with a no-hitter in his last outing, a brilliant complete-game win against the Rockies. Cain has faced the Padres four times this season, posting a 1-2 mark with 4.05 ERA, with his lone win coming in an eight-inning gem on Sept. 9.

Despite his great performance against the Giants this season, as I've been noting all season, Richard is more of a middle rotation guy, and he should regress at some point.  Plus, he's never thrown so many innings before, so his arm has got to be feeling some of the effects of that.  Meanwhile, Cain has been aces all season long and even raised it a big notch in September.  Should be a Giants win, which would be nice present for Cain's 26th birthday today.

Game 2:  Tim Stauffer vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  Stauffer continues to shine as a member of the rotation. He allowed one run over seven innings in his last start against the Cubs on five hits. He's allowed seven runs in five starts in September and is pitching as well as anyone in the rotation.

Giants:  The Giants will send out their most experienced arm in the opener of the season's final series against the Padres. Interestingly, Zito has only faced the Padres once this season, giving up three runs in five innings in a 3-2 loss on May 11.

Wow, that is another reason to swap.  Richard vs Zito and Stauffer vs. Cain would have been pretty even.  Cain vs. Richard, as noted above, I would have to give Cain the nod.  And Zito when he's going good could be even with Stauffer.  But I would have to give Stauffer the lean, in a tight battle, because while I think Zito will be OK in this start, Stauffer has been that much better all season.

In any case, hopefully the Giants have already clinched in Cain's start and all would be moot, and the Giants could start resting guys who probably can use it, Posey, Torres, Huff, Burrell, Franchez, Uribe, Wilson, Wilson's beard (read ExtraBaggs for more info on that). 

Game 3:  Mat Latos vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  Latos allowed two earned runs (four total) in 5 2/3 IP in his last start against the Cubs. He has won once in his last eight decisions and hasn't been as sharp as he was earlier in the season. The Padres' playoff hopes could well ride on Latos' arm.

Giants:  If the rotation holds true and the race stays tight, this is a very appealing season finale. Earlier this season, Sanchez guaranteed the Giants would sweep the Padres. His guarantee didn't hold. This game could have much more than words on the line.

The Giants really should have clinched by now.  If not, then it will be up to Sanchez to hold to his words of promise last month when he unwisely mouthed off about how the Giants were better and would sweep past the 'Dres.  That has actually happened, but not before the 'Dres spanked the Giants and made this weekend necessary for determining the NL West Division Title winner. 

Latos is also way past his prior innings pitched in a season as well, and he appears to be feeling the effects of that.  Sanchez, meanwhile, has been masterfully handled by Posey when he does not have it - and he's still as wild as he was before, only Buster has been able to help him limit the damage when he puts the runners on base.  Plus, more importantly, he appears to be developing and maturing, being able to handle adversity better.  It should be a close battle, but I would have to lean to Sanchez and the Giants, particularly since Bochy would have a short leash on Sanchez and would bring in the bullpen to take care of things.  And you never know, they could decide to start Lincecum.

Giants Thoughts

The Giant should win the NL West title.  The rotation is lined up nicely, an advantage the Giants could take because they had last Monday off and the 'Dres didn't.  The Giants only need to win one game while the 'Dres would have to sweep.  However, they have played the Giants tough all season until the last series, so you never know. 

There are some wild permutations where the Giants could end up with the wild card and the 'Dres win the NL West, but that is something the Giants would back into by playing pretty terribly in all three games.  Plus even a crazy scenario where there would be a tie between the Giants, 'Dres, and Braves.  But they haven't done terrible that often for a long while now, and certainly not over a three game stretch, so they should win the NL West.

Another issue is who plays Phillies, which most Giants fans want to avoid.  Right now most likely Reds are the lucky team to play the Phillies, as the Giants and Braves most likely will make playoffs, which would force the Reds to play the Phillies since they cannot play Wild Card Braves.   Basically, assuming the Giants make the playoffs, if the Giants win one game and the NL West, they avoid the Phillies in the playoffs.  They would have to fall into the wild card to play the Phillies. 

The pitchers should be there, the question is whether the hitters will do enough to support the pitching in this final series of the season and into the playoffs?  So far, they have done the job very well.  More importantly, a number of players are hitting well now, Posey, Burrell, Torres, Huff, Sandoval, Ross, plus hopefully Franchez is healthy and hitting too.  Plus Uribe socks one out every so often enough to turn a game, so we got that too.

But first, there is the matter at hand, which has been the Giants mantra, it seems, in all the interviews with them, particularly this month:  worry about today's game and focus on that; worry about tomorrow's game tomorrow.  And that really is true, when you are so far back that late in the season, all you can really do is focus on winning today's game, one game at a time, then you can put your head up and see where you are.  And where they are is they are on the brink of winning the NL West division title.

Go Giants!  Return us to the playoffs!

P.S. I think Andres Torres should win the Willie Mac award this season.  His rise to starter after over a decade of minors and journeyman status should be an inspiration to all (well, all except Rowand, I suppose).  Huff and Burrell probably would have won it almost any other season, but I have to give it to Torres.  But if any of these three wins, I don't think it would be that big an upset, they are all worthy.  Maybe a 3-way tie for the 30th Willie Mac?

P.S.S.  I will end by noting that the Giants would have already clinched the NL West title if that stupid and blind umpire had correctly called Ishikawa safe in that Mets game long ago, and not given it to the catcher and the Mets for "good effort".  The baseball fates owe us! (umpires too, maybe they can make it hard for SD pitchers to get strikes while giving the Giants a wide zone;  just a suggestion :^)