Your 2010 Giants are 84-66: Clubbing Sum Cubs

Well, that was not exactly what we were looking for against the Brewers, but they threw their best against us, and sometimes you will lose to the best - something other teams will learn against the Giants in the playoffs for years to come.  Gallardo is a bonafide ace and Wolf has been on a very good streak, and has been a good pitcher, on and off, in previous seasons.

So the Giants ended up 3-3 on the homestand, but that was good enough to keep the division lead, ultimately, plus a 1.5 game lead over D-Rox, when the D-gers finally showed that they had some pride, and came back nicely from a 6-1 deficit and steal the win away from D-Rox, making their dream-like ending take a serious bump in the fantasy.  Now the Giants face the Cubbies, who, natch, happen to have their best pitchers lined up against the Giants, but the clubhouse mood could have been disrupted by Tyler Colvin's odd but lung-threatening injury (just surprised it hasn't happened before yet, a bat splintered and a chunk went into his chest).

Game 1:  Carlos Zambrano vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

Giants:  Cain continued his second-half dominance against the Dodgers, throwing seven shutout innings to improve to to 6-2 with a 2.71 ERA since the Midsummer Classic. Cain also reached the 200-inning plateau for the fourth straight season.

Cubs:  Zambrano has been a lights-out pitcher since returning to the starting rotation. Over his past seven starts, he is 6-0 with a 1.37 ERA, including holding the Cardinals to one earned run in six innings in his last outing.

Does not get much tougher than Zambrano on a roll.  The above says it all, both players are at the top of their game right now, but Zambrano is on a bigger roll, plus he's at home (3.07 ERA vs. Giants at home) and Cain is on the road, where historically he has been much worse, but he's now at least good on the road last season and this season.  It might take a Matty shutout to win, though the Giants have took down the other team's best pitcher often this season (just not often enough for some fans).  Despite how well Cain has been doing, have to lean towards Zambrano on this, but pretty even contest otherwise.

Game 2:  Randy Wells vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

Giants:  Sanchez struck out a career-high 12 while walking zero in his last start against the Dodgers, holding L.A. to two runs -- one earned -- on four hits. In his last six starts, Sanchez is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and has worked seven-plus innings four times.

Cubs:  Wells says he found his confidence against the Cardinals in his last start, restricting them to one run in eight innings. He struck out five and walked none.

This is the game the Giants are most likely to win.  Wells had a nice start in his last game, but in his last 10 games, he has a 5.22 ERA.  But it is not like he isn't a good pitcher, he's just having a bad regression to the mean season vs. how good he was last season.  In any case, he has a good enough K/9 and very good K/BB, so sabermetrically, he's a good starter.  

But Sanchez has been very good this season and great recently (1.83 ERA in last 6 starts), and has been pitching well since July started, 3.16 ERA since then.  The only caveat is that Sanchez had a horrible start against them in 2009, his only start in Wrigley.  But it is a different Sanchez now, he is now a pitcher, not a thrower, as he has been able to go into a game without much stuff and still was able to be effective in keeping the other team from scoring.  

The Giants should win this one, but if Wells has his rare good start and Sanchez his rare bad one, it could be a different story.

Game 3:  Ryan Dempster vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

Giants:  In his last start, Bumgarner pitched a solid 5 2/3 innings, but shoddy defense behind him played a factor in the rookie lefty-hander remaining winless at AT&T Park. Bumgarner beat the Cubs on Aug. 9, allowing three runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Cubs:  Dempster has looked sharp in his last two outings. Over that span, he has thrown a combined 14 shutout innings against the Brewers and Marlins, seven against each club.

Again, the Giants are unlucky, getting to face Dempster in this series as well as Zambrano, so if they do make the playoffs, they will have earned it against the other teams' best starters, we have had it tough in our recent series, facing the other team's top two pitchers (at minimum) each series.  Dempster has been on a roll himself his last two starts, heck, the Cubs have been too, winning 17 of their 24 games under interim manager Sam Quade, who took over after Piniella took early retirement.  This series looked like a gimme when the month started, but this will be another death match against two very tough pitchers.

Wow, looking over his career, Dempster has worked very hard to get to where he is today, people might complain about how long it took Jonathan Sanchez to reach a good performance level in the majors, perhaps bemoaning his time in the bullpen, but Dempster took even longer and went to the bullpen, where he eventually was made the closer, but really wasn't that good as a closer.  However, when they made him a starter again, at age 30, he has blossomed into one of the best in the NL the past three seasons.

He has pitched OK against the Giants in the past in Wrigley, 13.2 IP, 13 K, 6 BB, but been a little unlucky with a 3.95 ERA, in two starts.  And that is roughly his career against SF, 3.89 ERA.  If we face that Dempster, we have a pretty good chance of winning because Bumgarner has been pitching pretty well for a while now.  But if we are facing the Dempster who shut out the Brewers and the Marlins, it will be a tough, even, well-pitched game, which like, as some been saying, been torturing us with recently.  

Giants Thoughts

As much as people would like to complain about the Giants, they are in the division lead right now with only 12 games to go.  It seems nothing is ever good enough for these people, plus that the sky is always falling.  The past three years the Giants has basically done what I thought they could do, but the Naysayers just don't see it.

And that is the problem when you are wedded to a position, as most of these people are who I call Sabean Naysayers.  You recognize the faults that are there but don't throw the baby out with the bath water either.  And that is what these people have been doing, they have essentially divorced themselves from Sabean because of all the past trespasses, and despite putting together the best pitching rotation in the majors, plus adding Posey and Pablo, they just don't really care, and I'll bet that if the Giants do win the World Series under Sabean, they still won't be satisfied, there will always be that "yeah, but..."

And I was one of those questioning Sabean way back in 2002-3, particularly about the draft, when I did my draft study and realized how tough it is to rebuild via the draft.  It is basically impossible to do that while you are winning, particularly if you are contending for a playoff spot, year in, year out.  For every Matt Cain you find, you have to pick over the Torcato's, the Bumps in the road, Bonser, McDowell, Alderson, Fairley, Hennessey, basically for every ten you select, you will find one Matt Cain, plus useful players like Lowry, Hennessey, Bonser, who are complementary players, can fill a spot on the roster, and keep the team going so that the good players like Cain, Lincecum, Posey, can lead the team to victory.

You have to look at the big picture and accept that there is no perfect situation.  Accept what you got, realize what you really have and not an idealized version of what you think it should be.  You need to see the reality that is there and not be clouded by your past feelings.

The Big Picture

The Giants have a lot of good players who are struggling right now with the playoff pressure.  In other words, they are thinking too much at the plate, swinging at pitches they normally either let go by for a ball or smash for a hit when it is a strike.  The pitchers were going through that in August, but has come out with flying colors in September.  The hitters actually carried the pitchers in August, but it is the other way around now.  They will have to work through it just like the pitchers did.

Pitchers deal with this type of pressure often (RISP, late game action), so it is no surprise that they got over it sooner.  The hitters didn't really feel the pressure until the 'Dres lost all those games and the division lead was in our grasp.  Still, it is not like it is all bad, on the hitters part, they came through during the series in San Diego, enabling the team to pass the 'Dres and take first place.

Now there are twelve games left:  3 on the road with the Cubs, 3 on the road with the D-Rox, then back home for 3 against the D-backs and the final 3 against the 'Dres.  Basically relatively easy then tough for both.  The Cubs aren't as easy are originally seen early in the month, but with our good pitchers, it is not like they are going to run us over either.  It should be another tough but good series.  Ideally, we win the series, because the 'Dres are playing the D-gers (who have been pushovers lately) and D-Rox are playing the D-backs, but if we come out 1-2, it won't be the end of the world either, as I doubt the others will sweep.

SD coming up is facing 3 vs. LA in LA (3-4 on their road trip), then home against tough Cincinnati, the suddenly tough Cubs for 4 games, and then the final series vs. SF in SF.  The way it is looking, SD is stabilizing and the Giants will probably be playing for the division title against them in the final weekend.

Colorado is on the road for 3 against the D-backs, which has been falling like a stone, which is bad here but good for the Giants since they also face three at home against them too.  So the Giants should come out ahead relatively, when all said and done.  Then D-Rox are home for 3 vs. SF and 3 vs. LA, before going on the road against St. Louis for 4.  The D-Rox is probably playing the Giants for the division lead in that matchup and the Giants reportedly dodge a bullet in that Jimenez is not pitching in that series and Tracey said that he was not moving him up on short rest to pitch there.  

Giants:  1-2 Cubs, 1-2 COL, 2-1 AZ, 2-1 SD = 6-6 and 90-72 final record
'Dres:  2-1 LA, 1-2 CIN, 2-2 Cubs, 1-2 SF = 6-7 and 89-73 final record
D-Rox:  2-1 AZ, 2-1 SF, 2-1 LA, 2-2 St.L = 8-5 and 90-72 final record

So, for the Giants the key is that they need to win the series in Colorado, which would put them 2 games ahead of the other two teams, and should win them the title.  If they can win the Cubs series or sweep the D-backs, which has gone in a bad slide recently, that would be good too.

San Diego really need to win the series against SF in SF.  It would be good to win either the Reds or Cubs series too.

Colorado really needs to keep winning series.  Any slipup (particularly against SF) and they are probably done, though if they sweep anyone, that would really help too.  Plus if they can win the St. Louis series, but LaRussa might still be battling then for a playoff spot, as they got 6 games against Pittsburgh in the next 9 games, sandwiching 3 against the suddenly tough Cubs.  I noticed that the Cards have a TBD for one of their starters on Thursday, so it would not surprise me if he is modifying the rotation with an eye to the Colorado series, at home, as they will be the tough team to beat, while the Pirates and Cubs are not as tough.

Giants Hitter Need to Get Hot:  Guillen?

There is nothing like a hitter getting white hot and the team just floats along for the ride.  That happened in July when Posey got hot and that is happening now for the D-Rox as they ride Tulowitski's historic home-run binge (something insane like 14 homers in 15 games, forgot, only 1-3 other players have done that before).  The Giants need a hitter to get hot like that, which would loosen up the other hitters, I think.

Jose Guillen could be that guy.  He is 7 for 13 since he got that epidural (or whatever) into his bulging disc on his neck (why didn't he complain earlier and got the shot earlier?), with 2 HRs and 8 RBI in four games.  We have only gone 2-2 so far, but if he continues hitting at such a high rate, we would have Guillen, Posey, Burrell hitting well, plus maybe that will loosen up Huff too, who is scuffling lately.

But the only guys hitting this month are Posey, Burrell, Huff, Schieholtz, and Renteria, and now Guillen, basically the vets.  Everyone else has been scuffling.  Torres was particularly bad, though perhaps that was related to his appendix needing to get out, though usually it does not affect the body for that long before needing to get out (leading to the speculation of some that his ADD medication might have led to this condition).

Speaking of Torres, he's already up and hitting with a fungo bat off a tee, and he is scheduled to practice in Chicago, so there is talk now that he might even be able to come back in the series in Colorado.  If so, and if he is back to his pre-September goodness form, that can't be anything but great news for the Giants.

Your 2010 Giants are 83-64: First Squeeze the Brewers

La Machine!  Since the disappointing series loss to Arizona - AT HOME - the Giants finally awoke and have won their last five series, all against NL West opponents, to finally reach first place in the NL West, alone.  I have never believed in manifest destiny, but for some odd reason I've lost the butterflies since the loss to the 'Dres on Saturday, I "know"that they are in it - but will they win it?  The Giants win of the LA series gave them the season's series, 10-8, their first since 2005, according to KNBR.

The Brew Crew, they of the bowling pin variety, come in for a series, probably still stinging from the four game sweep that the Giants handed them at their home in early July.  Being out of it too, they probably would love to play spoilers because the Giants just spanked them, outscoring them 36-7.  But these Giants have a lot of pride and poise, and they are probably still stinging from Fielder's et al bowling pin stunt last season and his unrepentant unapology this spring, as well as knowing that they need to win every series down the wire to put them in good position to win the division in the season ending series against San Diego.  Plus, they have spanked the NL Central this season, 25-11.

Strangely, we haven't heard the strains of people clamoring to trade Sanchez for Cory Hart, coming in with the Brewers, who has hit only .257/.312/.472/.784, 6 HR in 144 AB since the end of July - in other words, nothing special.  Sanchez has merely had a 2.47 ERA, 61 K in 54.2 IP, only 24 BB.  What a disaster trade that would have been!

Or how about those who have been clamoring to trade Matt Cain the past few seasons, particularly for Prince Fielder, but also for Alex Rios.  How stabilizing a force he has been this season, as both Zito and Lincecum burned brightly early but then had horrible struggles during the season, Sanchez, while good overall, has been up and down in results, and of course, there was the Wellemeyer period, and even Bumgarner was not feeling it for a while.  Cain was La Machine all season, what a disaster trade that would have been, especially considering how poorly both Fielder and Rios played after the trade rumors/speculation (Rios was released for nothing by Toronto; Fielder has been an offensive low-light this season, nothing like before, could be a cautionary tale for us Sandoval fans).

And that doesn't even include the ones who wanted to trade Lincecum for Alex Rios or those who wanted to trade Bumgarner (last three starts, 0.89 ERA) this season for any offense.  And I'm sure during the off-season they will continue to agitate for more offense by trading one of our pitchers.  What they are forgetting is that such trades are only sideway moves at best, assuming equal value is exchanged, and risk that the new player isn't all that he was advertised to be.  Just because they can't stand losing 1-0 or 2-1, when the trade might just mean that we lose 4-3 or 5-4 instead:  still a loss either way.

Game 1:  Randy Wolf vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

Brewers:  Tossing eight innings and giving up just one run on a home run, Wolf thought his last outing may have been his best of the 2010 season. He'll look to continue his recent success, as he's gone 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA over his last nine starts.

Giants:  If it weren't for teammate Buster Posey, the Giants might be pushing Bumgarner for NL Rookie of the Year honors. He has thrived against National League West opponents, recording a 2.47 ERA.

Wolf has dominated the Giants the past three seasons in SF, but the caveat there is both who hasn't and the offense is different now.  Still, he has a 3.06 ERA against the Giants in AT&T.  Unfortunately, the one guy who has hit Wolf well is Andres Torres with 2 homers in 3 AB.  Renteria has also hit him well, but that's only 17 AB, and as Aubrey Huff showed last night against Billingsley - after a career, something like 4-27, he slammed a triple and HR off him - career numbers are not absolutes.

Bumgarner has been on a roll recently himself, as we all know.  And he and the Giants beat Wolf in Milwaukee, 6-1, earlier this season, so they will probably want revenge.  Should be an even game, both pitchers have been on the top of their game recently.

Game 2:  Yovani Gallardo vs. Lincecum

MLB Notes:

Brewers:  Gallardo worked seven scoreless innings Sunday for the second straight start following three in a row in which he allowed at least six runs. One of his most memorable starts was at AT&T Park last April, when he homered off Randy Johnson.

Giants:  Lincecum's awful August now is a distant memory as he has won his past three decisions. In his last outing, he held the Padres to one run and struck out nine in seven innings. In six starts against the Brewers, Lincecum is 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA.

Looks like it's ace-vs.-ace, and both are shutting down the opposition in recent games.  Gallardo has two career starts in SF, was beat bad in 2007 but shut down the Giants last season.  Lincecum has bad career results against Milwaukee, including a 6.60 ERA at home against them, but earlier this season he pitched a great game against them at their home.  Should be a good game, bring it on.

Game 3:  Chris Narveson vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

Brewers:  N/A

Giants:  Zito suffered a loss in his career-high ninth straight decision in his last start, but appears to be finding himself. Zito said he's felt better in his past two starts, and it shows as he's allowed five hits in 11 2/3 innings.

Looks like Zito finally got a break.   Narveson (Baggerly reported him as the starter in the newspaper) has a 5.05 ERA, though 4.56 ERA on the road.  He has never pitched in SF, but the team clobbered him in Milwaukee earlier this season.  Should be a Giants win if Zito can keep his recent improvement going.  

Giants Thoughts

The Giants just need to do as Aubrey Huff said recently in an interview:  win each series (DrB noted this too), don't think about sweeps, that's hard to do in any situation, let alone with the playoffs on the line.  They have done it recently, and despite the good pitchers lined up against them, they have been doing it.  They luck out with Narveson pitching one game, but face to two tough customers in Wolf and Gallardo, both of whom have pitched well in recent games, but if the Giants can grab one from one of them (like we did with Kershaw/Billingsley) then we should be in good shape in the rubber game against Narveson.

The pitchers have been on a great run in September, like a switch was turned on.  Lincecum and Bumgarner is seeing velocity that they haven't seen in a while.  Sanchez has been unflappable and vet-like in shutting down the other team even when he didn't have his best stuff.  He appears to be graduating to Lincecum/Cain status, taking his place next to them in the rotation.  Zito, well, he's the 5th starter now, he's going to have to revert to his April incarnation for the rest of the season to change that impression, but as long as he pitches to his capabilities, that is nothing to be ashamed of, there are a lot of pitchers in the majors who would be a 5th starter when the rest of the rotation is Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner..

The hitters have been just doing enough, led by our young wunderkind, Buster Posey.  I was so happy that Tampa Bay passed on him in that draft, but his production this season and particularly in September with everything on the line just makes me ecstatic that we have found our offensive leader for the foreseeable future.  As Mark Purdy quoted from Will Clark, who probably is the closest in term of stature on the team in the recent past (Bonds was never a leader), "There are guys that are pretty special.  Buster is one of them."  And because the Giants didn't bring him up until late May, we get at least 6 more years of him, not 5 if he had started with the team.

And hitters are waking up.  Renteria had an amazing game yesterday (great quote from him in Chron about leading off, about taking pitches, doing whatever to get on base, for big hitters), perhaps we found our replacement lead-off hitter; Bochy is going with him again in first game.  Sanchez as been on fire for a long time.  Huff has been doing better recently before busting out yesterday.  Burrell has been steadily good.  Guillen apparently had a pain in his neck/back (and didn't report it!!! for 2-3 weeks) and after getting a shot to help with that, was a pain in the neck/back of the opposing pitcher yesterday, looking like the guy who was an offensive force for the A's when he joined them on their pennant run.  Plus the young guys, Schierholtz and Ishikawa has been contributing here and there.

If Sandoval can get out of his most recent funk (which is not to be unexpected, after dealing with such an emotional issue like a divorce, there will be ups and downs afterward, it is only human), the offense should be pretty good for the stretch run.  Even if he is not, the offense has been good enough with our pitching to win a lot of games.  Bochy appears to be platooning him now, which works if Renteria can continue hitting like this, as he would play SS and Uribe 3B against LHP.

Your 2010 Giants are 81-63: Manned Up, Now Beat Dying Dogs

The Giants manned up and beat the 'Dres 3-1 in the four game series, which put them in a virtual tie with them for first and guarantees a second season of not having a losing record.  Unfortunately, the D-Rox continued their winning streak and are now only 2.5 games behind the 'Dres and 2 games behind the Giants, after SD beat them Monday.   The Giants finished up a very successful 7-3 trip and return home for 6 games - 3 versus LA and 3 vs. MIL - followed by 6 games on the road - 3 vs. Cubs and 3 crucial games vs. COL - then end with 6 games at home - 3 vs. AZ and ending with 3 vs. SD.

The Giants ideally sweep LA like SD did last week, to separate some from the D-Rox and/or 'Dres, who are playing each other.  However, it won't be easy to even win the series, which the Giants need to at least do, to keep up in the standings, as they face LA's top three starters, Kershaw (they juggled the rotation to put him in this series), Billingsley, and Lilly.  If they should win the series, they would win the season's series from LA, as they currently stand 8-7 against their hated rivals, who has faded fast in the second half:  as I noted in the last series, they have not won one series against a playoff contender in the second half so far and have continued that streak.  Hopefully the Giants will continue that streak.

Game 1:  Clayton Kershaw vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

D-gers:  Kershaw opens a three-game set with the Giants. Originally scheduled to pitch Saturday at Houston, he had his start pushed back to Wednesday and was a tough-luck loser to San Diego. He limited the Padres to two runs but was outdueled by Mat Latos.

Giants:  Zito hasn't won in 10 starts, but it hasn't been all his fault. Take Wednesday: He allowed two D-backs runs in six innings and even struck out seven but lost, 3-1. If he keeps it up, winning should take care of itself.

Amazingly, he has faced the Giants only once before as a starter in SF and he did pretty well, 2 ER in 7 IP, and that was earlier this season.  And as noted, he did very well in his last start, and has been the staff ace this season, with a 2.99 ERA this season.

Meanwhile, Zito has not had a good start in ages, though he has been better in his latest outings, because when he strikes out a lot, that is a good sign.  Unfortunately, the baseball gods been making his batted balls fall in for hits lately, probably to even up his earlier performance in April, so his outings have been short.

Have to say that the D-gers probably got this one, unless Zito can actually deliver a DOM PQS game instead of coming close but no dice.  He will need to step up in this game, but he appears to have regressed to his 2007-2008 level of performance where he's thinking too much about his results, about delivering, instead of just throwing strikes and hitting the target, unlike early in this season when he said he finally got to the point where he didn't care how the fans felt, he was going to have fun and not care as much.  But he appears to be caring again, too bad, because we need him to return to his April form, much like Lincecum has returned to his April form.

This shows how crucial to have multiple aces in your rotation in the playoffs and a strong rotation top to bottom.  If we lose this first game with Zito, then we need to win the next two to win the series, against tough starters.  Anytime in the playoffs, we could throw Lincecum or Cain, and put us in excellent spot to win the series by winning that first game.  Then you only need to win two out of four, while the loser has to win three out of four, which is daunting when the four is probably Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Lincecum.  Or three out of six, while the loser has to win four out of six.

Game 2:  Chad Billingsley vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

D-gers:  Billingsley opposes Matt Cain in a battle of 11-game winners. He lost to the Padres, 4-0, in his last start, allowing four earned runs on six hits and five walks in 5 1/3 innings. It was his second five-walk game in three starts. He struck out six.

Giants:  Cain got the Giants started in their successful series at San Diego, working two batters into the ninth inning last Thursday. With a 5-2 record and a 2.96 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break, Cain has been the team's most effective starter.

Have to call this even.  Cain has been great but Billingsley can be great when he is on.  And he is great in ATT, 2.68 career ERA there.  And he has been better there this season, 1.42 ERA.  Meanwhile, the Cainer has not been that good against LA in AT&T in his career.  But he finally got the monkey off his back with a win in his last start against them, and frankly, LA has been flat this whole second half, losing against playoff contending teams, heck, getting swept by SD right after SD lost 10 in a row.  So can go either way, even.

Game 3:  Ted Lilly vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

D-gers:  Lilly, who was acquired from the Cubs on July 31, is 5-2 for the Dodgers but has lost his last two decisions. In Houston last Thursday, he took the 3-2 loss to the Astros, snapping his seven-game winning streak against Houston.

Giants:  Sanchez has been on a roll, recording a 1.95 ERA over his past five starts. He has surrendered just 17 hits in 32 1/3 innings in that span, helping lower his opponents' batting average to .208.

Ted Lilly has been great for the D-gers since they traded for him from Chicago.  Unfortunately for him, the rest of the D-gers have not collectively performed, and despite his 3.33 ERA, 5-2 record, great peripherals, the D-gers just sunk lower and lower into the NL West.  He only has two starts in ATT, and only one in recent past, a start in 2008 which was very good, but of course, the offense wasn't that good then either.

Sanchez has been great recently.  And he is basically tied with Bumgarner for the second best ERA on the team (3.29 vs. Bumgarner's 3.28), which most people don't realize, it seems, because so many people want to trade him.   Sure, he has been up and down, but he has the stuff that makes hitters swing and miss or not hit as hard, he has no-hit stuff.

Not that he is as good as Sandy Koufax, but it took Koufax a number of years before he figured out how to harness his no-hit stuff regularly and consistently.  Sanchez has a 3.29 ERA even though he's been erratic, so people obviously are remembering his problem starts and not when he has done very well.  However, he has not done well against LA previously in his career:  but more importantly, in his last start against them on September 5th, he totally dominated LA, 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 9 K's, in LA.

Both can be good, so I will have to call this even.  But if Sanchez can get ahold of his talent and dominate, I would like the Giants chances to win.  And based on recent performances, Sanchez looks like he could pull off the win.  He has shown advancement this season, even his last start, even though it was short and wild, he was able to keep the scoring down to a minimum, and that is all you can ask of your starters when they just don't have it.  He needs to step up in this start - again - and take out LA.  But overall, have to call it even.

Giants Thoughts

I was going to post this after Saturday's game, but didn't have the time:  after the loss, I didn't feel anxious like I have all season after losses.  I think the Giants are for real and will continue to win.  But will it be enough for a playoff spot?  Don't know, hopefully so.

But players are peaking at the right time for the most part.  The pitchers have all been amazing, particularly Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner, well, except for Zito, but when he's striking out a lot of batters, that means he's actually pretty locked in, it mainly means the baseball gods are going against him with balls falling in.  The bullpen has been amazing too.  The hitters have been led by Posey, with Huff finally loosening up and hitting, Burrell and Uribe hitting well, and Schierholtz has been hitting in the pinch.

The loss of Torres would be frightening if it wasn't that the Giants have been winning in September with him hitting pitifully.  As well as his defense is, the dropoff from him to Rowand, Ross (who is now looking betteras an acquisition with Torres lost for the season probably), or even Schierholtz, would be equal or surpassed by how well his replacement should hit relative to Torres frigid September while we were winning.

Like the series in LA, it is looking like LA should win this series based on the pitching matchups, as they send out their three best against the Giants, like SD, switching Kershaw so that he could pitch against the Giants.  But they played just bad enough to lose at home, and now they are on the road, where they are a horrible 30-42, as well as continuing their streak of losing every series against a playoff contending team in the second half.  They are just sinking and waiting to hit bottom.  I expect them to play just well enough to lose the series to the Giants and continue to sink in the NL West.   But with SD winning against COL Monday, the Giants look like they need to sweep to keep up and/or get ahead of both SD and COL.

But I think a series win will be enough.  As DrB noted, the Giants look like they need to just stay steady and win every series if they want to make the playoffs.  They look ready to do that in each series except for the one in Colorado, that will now be on par with their two series in the past month with SD, with the two teams battling it out to claim first place in the division.

The Giants have been pretty amazing this season.  They have come back from games where they had no business winning.  They have come back from bad losing streaks and bad pitching streaks and bad hitting streaks.  Bad slumps from all players, including Posey.  They were monster hot in July and so far so good in September.  The starting pitching has been pretty good this month, and if Zito can join them in producing, the rotation would become great, not just good.  The bullpen, as Baggarley noted today in the newspaper, has been great too.  If they can maintain the heat, they should get into the playoffs over somebody.

Go Giants!  Beat LA!

Bumgarner Starts

One topic I've been opining around is about how to handle Bumgarner.  He is over his top IP from previous seasons now.  When do the Giants pull him out of the rotation to protect his arm?

Some just want to shut him down because he is over.  The Giants have already addressed this in an interview, they are going to monitor Madison closely, see how he is doing, game to game.  I like that approach more than going by a set number.  Both Cain and Lincecum went way over their previous IP highs in their first full season and it hasn't affected either.  And the Giants sat down Lincecum when they thought he was done, though that wasn't in a pennant race, while now we are.

Bumgarner has three starts left, Brewers, Cubs, and then D-backs.  Given that he was throwing 95 in his last start, late in the game, he seems to be strong still, so he's definitely pitching in the Brewers game.  At worse, we could make the Cubs start a bullpen start where we just went out a bunch of relievers to eat up innings, which should be OK since the Cubs is now looking strongly at youngsters.  Then with 9-10 days rest, he should be able to take the D-backs start.

I think Bumgarner is a horse.  He is what I call "farm strong" and those pitchers just seem to have great strength and stamina.  I think the Giants will go right by him, and I don't think he would continue to pitch if his body is telling him something is up, being a man of nature.

Also, he mentioned during the off-season that he threw a lot in between starts and theorized that this caused his loss of velocity.  We now know that it appears more a problem with mechanics than tiredness from overuse.  But he said that he would lay off throwing so much between starts, so we don't really know if he has actually thrown more pitches in 2010 so far than he did in 2009 because there is that iceberg of throwing that he did between starts in 2009 that we do not have a number for.

It would be interesting if a reporter would ask him to estimate 2009 vs. 2010 in terms of pitches and see where he thinks he is.  I would pose the question myself to a reporter, but for some reason they have never been receptive to my list of questions (of course, part of it could be the length of the list, but the way I see it, they can pick and chose what they think are good questions to answer, I don't expect every question to be answered).

Rotation Order

How to handle Bumgarner also affects another big question:  the pitching rotation.  According to Baggarley, if the rotation continues as is, the Giants would throw Zito, Cain, and Sanchez against SD in the final three games of the season, but with the off-day on Monday, they could push Zito to Friday to pitch against the D-backs, and push back Lincecum so that we have Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez going against SD in the final games.  Obviously, skipping Bumgarner and moving up the starters would make it harder to adjust the rotation to have Licnecum, Cain, Sanchez going against SD.

In addition, skipping Bumgarner would result in our starters having to start more games and putting more stress and work on the other starters' arms.  That could tired them out for the playoffs, though of course one could argue the Giant won't make it unless they did that.  I would not agree, I think having Bumgarner in the rotation gives us best chance to make playoffs, as it puts less games on arms plus means less starts for Zito.

I think it's best to keep rotation as is, but if Bumgarner needs to skip a start, bring up Pucetas to eat innings and hopefully not give up too many runs, then treat it as a bullpen game, bringing in the relievers to finish the game.  Then we can adjust, having Zito face the D-backs, against whom he should be better able to handle and win against, while we then throw Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez at SD, make it tough for them.

Replacement of Torres:  Multi-Dimensional Hole

Rowand and Ross are probably the main replacements, with Schierholtz perhaps getting a look if neither is working.  Ross is clearly the guy to play versus LHP, he's excellent against them, then mix and match against RHP.  That probably works OK offensively and defensively because Torres hasn't been hitting this month, so the upgrade offensively should match the drop-off on defense.  Plus maybe play Guillen less and Schierholtz more in RF, to offset the defensive loss, particularly since Guillen has not heated up yet.

But the big question is who leads off?  Rowand is the obvious choice only because he has done it, but he's not the ideal choice.  Darren Ford would be if he were able to get on base OK, but he's not, he is not even that good in AA, how is he going to do it in the majors?  Someone suggested batting Sanchez leadoff.

One choice, if Schierholtz plays more, is to use him in leadoff.   He has some good speed, he had stolen double digits annually in the minors.  The main problem is his lack of OBP.  But the team was winning with Torres basically contributing nothing in the leadoff spot, so anything Schierholtz can provide would be a great improvement likely.

A radical choice would be to bat Huff at leadoff.  His OBP is off the charts.  And as a runner on the bases, in 2008, he actually generated plus value as a baserunner, unlike last season, where a lot of the negatives were  because of hit and runs where he ran into a CS.  He appears to be a smart baserunner when allowed to do that.

I don't know what the answer is.  I would go with Schierholtz because if he can get hot, that would be another hot bat to carry us to the end of the season, plus he would provide some speed up top and good baserunning (at least according to Bill James Handbook on baserunning effectiveness).  I would also be OK with going with Rowand, mainly because when he is hot, he can carry a team, unlike Schierholtz, who would still be complementary to the team's offense, not the instigator.  Ross would be OK too, against LHP, where he just mashes and is great against.