Friday, August 27, 2010

Your 2010 Giants are 71-57: Time to Crush the Weak D-Backs

Before the series I would have been happy winning the series 2-1 against the Reds and Dusty, but that loss hurt so bad after that magnificent comeback.  However, I blame the umpire for helping cost us the game.  Observers said that he was not calling a strike on any of Zito's curves and was very inconsistent in his strike calls.  The MLB and the umpire's union should be ashamed.

The good news is that everything is all relative, and the Phillies got swept by the lowly Astros, so the Giants are back in the wild card lead by half a game.  And they now play three against the D-backs, while the Phillies play the 'Dres.  Hard to say who to root for, other than I hope that one team or the other sweeps, so that the Giants can gain a lot on the losing team.  Of course, ideally, if we sweep and Phillies sweep, we move to 3 games back of the 'Dres.

Game 1:  Barry Enright vs. Lincecum

MLB Notes:
D-backs:  Enright is alright. The rookie right-hander stood toe to toe with Ubaldo Jimenez on Saturday, yielding one Rockies run in 6 2/3 innings. He has begun his MLB career with 10 straight starts of three runs or less allowed in five or more innings.
Giants:  The losing streak continued for Lincecum in his last outing, when he gave up four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings to the Cardinals. In his last outing against the D-backs, Lincecum held them to two runs on nine hits in eight innings.
The Giants just seem to be facing a bunch of good young starters lately.  Enright has done pretty well so far, but oddly enough, has a reverse split, RHH are killing him, while he handles LHH.  If Bochy goes with a strict platoon lineup, he could shut down the Giants.  Luckily, Posey should start, Sanchez too, probably Burrell too, at minimum.

Still, under normal circumstances, Lincecum would be strongly favored in this game, but after losing four games straight for the first time in his career, it is no slam dunk.  Still, looking at his peripherals, if he were really as wild as some are saying, he would not be able to:  1) strike out so many, 2) walk relatively few relative to strikeouts.  Thus I think it is a bit of bad luck and that he'll have a good start sooner than later.  But will it be this start?

I'll just have to call it a toss-up, unsure who either pitcher might do.


Game 2:  Dan Hudson vs. Zito

D-backs:  Hudson shut down the Rockies for seven innings on Sunday. He allowed just four hits and, throwing more sliders, struck out nine. In his first five D-backs starts, the rookie righty has gone seven or more innings and yielded three runs or less.
Giants:  None
Another good young starter for the D-backs.  Got him in the Edwin Jackson trade, so they got a pretty good pitcher in return, plus another prospect.  Flew up farm system from low-A to majors last season, had problem with walks earlier with White Sox, but he has been great so far with the D-backs.

Zito will need his A-game for the Giants to have a chance against Hudson.  He had a bad outing in his last start, but has generally been good  in the second half, and he will need it to beat Hudson.  I think it will be a good battle between the two, hard to call.

Game 3:  TBA vs. Cain

D-backs:  No notes at this time.
Giants:  No notes at this time.
Cain has pitched very well this season, again, and is doing well in the second half again.  The D-backs were scheduled to start Rodrigo Lopez, based on turn, but for some season he's not listed.  No matter who it is, I would have to lean towards Cain in this one.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants have dominated the series so far, going 7-2, and thus have 9 more games against them, starting with these three.  San Diego has played most of their games and have gone 10-5 so far with 3 more to go.  I think the Giants will need to repeat if they want to have any hope of catching San Diego, but at 6 games back,  they probably need to worry more about winning the Wild Card, which means winning every game that they can, anyhow.  

A sweep would be ideal, but the bad news is that the D-backs are a new team under interim manager Kirk Gibson.  They are 12-12 under him, while 50-78 overall and despite a poor 3-7 in their last 10 games.  The young pitchers are helping a lot, and thus the Giants are unlucky in that they are facing probably their two best starters at the moment, both Enright and Hudson have been very good, particularly Hudson.  Lopez, should we end up facing him, has not been very good.  

So despite their poor record and all, the Giants could very well lose this series, if Enright (4-2) and Hudson (3-1) continue their dominating ways.  The Giants will need to win one of those games if they hope to win the series, as Lopez we should beat with Cain going for us.  He has pitched once here, last season, and was bombed in that start, the Giants should give him a good beatdown if the offense is working.  

It will be interesting to see whether the Giants offense can keep up their scoring prowess during this series.  The extreme heat made the park more of a hitter's park, but as Jon Miller noted, it has been hot before and the Giants never scored so many runs in a series.  And even before that, Sandoval and Sanchez were heating up, Huff too, all the new guys have been hitting well, and Torres has been his relatively steady self, Burrell too, so far in August.  The Giants have averaged 4.61 runs scored this month, but unfortunately, the pitching has given up 4.78 runs allowed per game.  Hence why they are only 11-12 this month.

Thus as interesting as the hitting has been, the starting pitching will need to get themselves squared away, beginning with today's start for Lincecum, and continuing through the rest of the rotation.  The Giants will not be making the playoffs if they continue to give up 4.78 runs per game.  Don't need sabermetrics to see that one.

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