Monday, August 16, 2010

2010 Draft Countdown: Deadline Over

According to reports, the Giants have signed both Gary Brown and Jarrett Parker, links to news on their names.

Gary Brown got a bonus of $1.45M which is above the $1.242M slot for the 24th pick overall and is roughly what the 17th pick got.  That is roughly what Lincecum and Bumgarner got over slot at the 10th pick slot.

Jarrett Parker got a bonus of $700K which is above the $492,300 slot for the 74th pick overall and is roughly what the 50th and 51st pick got, roughly beginning of second round bonus for a back of second round pick, and slightly below what BA had him ranked overall on talent, which was roughly back of supplemental first round, or $717K to $800K.

Giants Thoughts

Hopefully one of them will be our future CF, but the odds of either making it to the majors as a good player is relatively low, under 20% collectively, probably closer to 15%.  The draft is a numbers game, the more you have, the greater the odds, particularly if you are valuing the picks correctly regarding bonus, it takes roughly $10-15M in bonuses to find each good player in the draft.

Still, I like Gary Brown's chances to make the majors, the question is how good he'll be.  At minimum, it sounds like he will be a fine defensive player with the speed to handle fielding CF and Death Valley.

People question his hitting but the good points there are that he was the best hitter in the Big West over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria and Kurt Suzuki, and that he did well in the Cape Cod league, a wood bat league, in his second season there.  Also, his speed will help him get hits that others wouldn't get, he has incredible speed, equivalent to left-handed batters getting to 1B despite his disadvantage of hitting right-handed.

Also, people knock his lack of walks, but he has shown the ability to take walks when he was not capable of hitting over .400, as he did this season, he was taking a lot of walks in his freshman season, both in the Big West and the Cape Cod league.  It was just that once he figured out the hitting part, he walked less.  I think he will adjust to his ability level to keep his OBP relatively high.

Of course, if he can get on base enough, he'll be the lead-off hitter we have been craving.  And if he can hit for enough power, he could be similar to a younger, faster Andres Torres, though probably not the type of power Torres has flashed so far, maybe the same amount of doubles and triples though, just not as many HR. That would be plenty good for our offense, which should have Posey and Pablo in the middle for years to come.

4 comments:

  1. I feel goodish about these guys. At the very least, Gary Brown could be the pinch runner of the future and relieve Nate of that duty. In all seriousness, I have hope for Gary Brown (don't know enough about Parker though). He knows how to get on base, plays good defense, and would add at least 30+ steals. I love that he's right handed; righties do better at AT&T. He's everything that we need in one.

    Jarrett Parker on the other hand, sounds like a real baseball name. He looks like he may have even more upside if harnessed. I like how they didn't just get a 2nd Gary Brown, they went for it with Parker. He looks like if he could just get more contact, it would solve some of his other problems. That's the biggest thing that I could see as to why his Power is rated less than Gary Brown's according to Baseball Cube. He's almost as fast, with unquestionable patience (which would lead me to think that he needs to rework his mechanics not his approach), etc. I'm very glad now that they did not pursue Cox. He may be a great hitter, but, his ISO was just bad, he's not quite a strong fielder, nor does he have the body that we would like to see in the infield. If there's only a 15% chance, we might as well go for the raw talent with the high upside. Go Giants!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah, I am glad they didn't go for either Cox or Lee, they just didn't make sense.

    And to clarify, when I say 15%, that means that 15% of the prior picks in that range over the draft that I studied did not turn out. Who knows, really, on Brown and Parker specifically, though I guess the scouts could probably hazard an accurate guess.

    Mainly, I quote the number to show how unlikely any #24 pick has been to turn out to be a good player in the draft, so that people don't get their hopes up.

    But I like Brown as a pick (still would have gone for Castellanos or maybe Yordy Cabrera, but I can see how Brown works better for the Giants in the short-term), and he has a lot of qualities that I think would be helpful to the Giants if he can develop in 1-3 years.

    ReplyDelete
  3. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/08/18/SPPH1EUPP1.DTL&feed=rss.giants

    Schulman says both Brown and Parker are expected to join rookie-level Salem-Keizer very soon, perhaps already. Probably will get 50-75 ABs, which Bobby Evans says would be good because he gets to face college pitchers there. Brown will play CF, so I don't know what happens with Parker then, that was left unsaid.

    Additional note: Brown was named Big West Player of the Year. That makes a lot of sense, what he did offensively there was the best OPS of the past 7-8 seasons, better than Evan Longoria and Kurt Suzuki did when they were in the league.

    If I remember right, even his ISO was up there with those two HR hitters. Just don't understand one observer that said that he should not loft the ball as much, that he should hit the ball into the ground and use his speed, unless he thinks that Brown will not be able to power the ball into the alleys for his doubles and triples.

    ReplyDelete
  4. BP chat, Q on Gary Brown: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=770


    "Nick (Nevada): KG, you seemed higher on Gary Brown than most on draft day. Do you think he has the upside to steal 50 bases and hit 10 homers a season or too optimistic? Also, any word when he'll play again? AFL?

    Kevin Goldstein: I do think he has that kind of upside, with a good batting average and plus-plus defense in center as well."

    That would be great to have in CF if he can reach that potential.

    ReplyDelete

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