Tuesday, August 18, 2009

The 2009 Giants are 64-54: Seeing Reds

After a collective "whew!" from Giants fans, happy with a split with the Mets, looking back, we were one homer (by someone who did not hit a homer in a year!) away from being 3-1 in the series. Heard that on morning show on KNBR, Kuip noted it. And dang if he weren't right. And if we spread those 10 runs across the other games, and we could have swept.

Only, we can't do that. Just be happy we got the split and that we are now only 5.5 games back.

Against the Reds, I would probably normally say that we have a good chance to win except that this is the Reds park, one of the best hitter's park in the majors. So you never know when it will blow up in a pitcher's face.

Plus, while Lincecum should beat Homer Bailey, Zito will have a hard time since he's up against Arroyo, plus he's a flyball pitcher in a ballpark that gives up a lot of HRs (2 starts in career, 10+ ERA), and Matt Cain is up against Harang, who pitches very well at home. We could be just as easily 1-2 as we could be 2-1.

The only good thing is that maybe Giants fans won't complain so bitterly about the offense since they should generate some good offense here, while the Mets new home park is a strong pitcher's park, from what I've read and heard about the park.

All righties, but I expect Garko to get all the starts because it's a good park to get out of an offensive funk and, well, that is how Bochy has been playing it since the Giants traded for Garko and said that both players were in the Giants plans for the future. The only way that worked was if Garko either played LF or C when not platooning with Ishikawa at 1B, and neither has happened so far.

I also expect Schierholtz to sit. Rowand had a nice day, Velez continues to be hot, and Winn had a nice day. And he hasn't really hit that well while starting, hot for a while then cold as ice. So I'm OK with this as long as he's our RF from 2010 and beyond (assuming he can hit well enough to keep the position; I think he can).

Too bad Bochy didn't give the speech before the first game in NY, instead of just before the last game.

Word of Caution to G-fans

Watch Homer Bailey carefully. He's an example of what could happen with Bumgarner. Young, great in the minors, rose like a shot, projected for greatness. But for some reason, once up here, just couldn't put it together. Still hasn't. So while I think it is safe to talk about him in our rotation, just be aware that it can go horribly wrong sometimes.

9 comments:

  1. ND for Lincecum. He's lucky he didn't end up with a loss after his peformance.
    Hooray for Garko.

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  2. We should have took at least 3 from the Mets. That lineup was actually worse than ours is. Also, I've been to citi field and it is seriously ATT park East, the field is MASSIVE. Rowands HR looked like a bomb straight off the bat and it only barely got out of the stadium. The Mets need to start modeling a team after us ASAP because that park isn't going to give up many HR's unless Selig decides to turn a blind eye on roids for 9 years...again

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  3. Yeah, Lincecum was lucky this time, but, really, don't the team owed him, like, another 4-5 games like this to make up for all the wins he should have gotten already, but didn't because of poor offense or defense?

    Yeah, we should have took at least 3 from the Mets. But I don't know about you, but I don't travel well, particularly when I go across 3 time zones. And even though the Giants had a travel day, still, I'm still out of sorts for a couple of days as my body is adjusting.

    Obviously, every team has to deal with that too and so we benefit it from our end when we have a homestand. Still, something to think about.

    Thanks for the report on Citifield. That's what I've been reading too. The Giants announcers said that NY will have to deal with the park's dimensions this off-season.

    The funny thing is that when I check the Mets Park Factors for pitching and hitting on baseball-reference.com, they are actually at 100 for both this season, after being slightly a pitchers park since almost the park's very beginning in 1964.

    Only 8 times the pitching PF was at 100 or above in those 45 years, none in the last 15 seasons; only 4 times the batting PF was at 100 or above, none in the last 18 years.

    So maybe the Mets haven't gotten the formula right except for their two World Series winners, when they had the Miracle Mets and Seaver, Koosman, Gentry, and their last WS winner, with Gooden, Darling, Fernandez, and Ojeda.

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  4. ND for Zito. Obviously we needed a PH with runners on 2B & 3B, but it's too bad it potential cost him a win. He certainly deserved it, he was on.

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  5. Matt, that's life in the NL, Zito should have known that coming in, Boras should have prepared him.

    As long as we get the W, I don't think Zito really cares.

    That gives us 16 shutouts for the season. We are 31-0 when we give up only 1 or 0 runs. And 64-11 when we give up 3 runs or less. The next best is actually the Reds with 11 shutouts, the the D-backs and Mets with 10 each.

    For a comparison, the D-gers are next best in pitching and runs allowed, if I remember right, and they are 18-0 when they give up 1 or less runs.

    Where they whup us is when they allow 2 runs, they are 17-2, while we are barely over .500, which obviously is because our offense is so inconsistent.

    Oddly enough, despite all our young pitchers, our team's pitching age, according to baseball-reference.com is 29.1, boosted by Howry I suppose, oh, and Randy Jonson too, forgot about him, that's about one-tenth of all our innings pitched and Howry's another 5%.

    We have only used 18 pitchers all year. Atlanta and St. Louis are next with 19, but the Cards just signed Smoltz who would be #20.

    We have the highest K/BB in the NL with a stellar 2.27 (you want your starters at 2.0+ to be good), and highest K/9 at 7.9. BB/9 is OK, middle of the pack in the NL.

    ReplyDelete
  6. RE: Citifield PF

    I believe that BB-Ref doesn't update it's park factors for the current season until it's done. So, the Mets PF are still based off of Shea.

    This is why stadium has the exact same PF from 2008 and 2009 while the current season is ongoing.

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  7. It would be pretty hard for any team to lose when you give up 1 run or less. I'm not sure that statistic means anything.

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  8. Thanks Boof, for pointing that out, you are absolutely correct. What I had had in my mind but never spit out was that our pitchers have had 31 games where they gave up only 1 or less runs, and the D-gers, the team with the second best ERA has only 18 such games, giving us a 13 game advantage over the other teams.

    Since the Garko age began on July 28th, he has started 16 games (19 games total) and the Giants have averaged 4.0 runs per game, same as we were doing when Ishikawa was starting at 1B, basically. He is batting .242/.319/.290/609 in his 19 games with us. That is an improvement on the road, sharp drop at home, compared to Ishikawa. The Giants are 10-6 in the games he has started, though.

    Since we got Sanchez, he has started 13 games and the Giants have averaged 4.77 runs per game and gone 7-6. He has hit .304/.322/.375/.697 with 1 HR in 56 AB, only 6 SO, 2 BB.

    Since the trade for Garko on July 27th, the Giants are 13-8, the best stretch of winning since June when Panda was swatting a dozen homers in the month. So while the offense has not really benefited much from the offensive additions, at least directly from them, they have certainly benefited from it from better play from the team in general.

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  9. It's funny because when I saw that they threw Howry out there I knew that he'd give up the game winning homer, because that's what he does. But then he got through the 9th and I was happy for him. Then they sent him out for the 10th and there's the ballgame. It was an easy one to call.

    ReplyDelete

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