Your 2009 Giants are 66-55: Rocking D-Rox

When you take a road trip to Cincinati, it is what it is: you never really know what is going to happen, even when the Reds are scuffling, like they are this season. Oddly enough, in a park known for being a hitter's park, we got to see two great pitching duels after a blow-out type of game in the first game of the series. We were lucky to get out with a series win, and yet we were not that far away - one key hit - from sweeping the series. In this wondrous season that we have had, we have not had a lot of those.

Again people complain about the offense. And I understand it, sort of, because it IS not very good. But first, you have to give Arroyo and Harang credit: both are good pitchers capable of shutting down the opposing team, whether a 90 pound weakling like the Giants or teams with a good offense, like the Mets earlier in the season or the Phillies. Second, it's a rebuilding year, there is always something wrong with a rebuilding team, even if they happen to be good enough to be competing for a playoff spot. It's like Doogie Howser: he was advanced for his years in his brains but still developing regarding his social skills and such. The Giants are advanced in pitching but still developing regarding their offense. Rushing either is futile and counter-productive.

Lastly, people get too hung up and defensive about the offense, like it being bad reflects badly on them, seemingly, or others have a "size" problem with regards to offense, where if it is not good at any position, the offense is hopelessly flawed. I think part of that comes from people used to the great offenses of the 1960's and others newbies who only knew the great offenses with Barry Bonds in the middle. If there is one hitter who is not pulling his weight, then we must go out and trade for some mega-superstar hitter from Team X.

The point is not about having an offense that can pummel the other side into submission, the point is situating the offense and defense such that we can win more games than we lose. Surprisingly to me, this point is missed by so many people, they run around like chickens with their heads chopped off or the sky is falling, but the fact is the Giants are 66-55, only 2 games out of the wild card, 5.5 games off the division lead. Chill, act like you've been in a pennant race before.

Da Rockies


These upcoming games are the most important 10 game stretch for the Giants in years. With the Giants close to the Wild Card leader, D-Rox, they play 4 against them in Colorado, then play another 3 against D-Rox the following week at home. These games could put the Giants in control or too far back in the wild card race. Winning the series in Colorado would bring us back to even with them in the Wild Card race. This is the time for the players to show what they are made out of.


In the first series, the Giants will throw at them these starters: Sanchez, Martinez, Lincecum, and Zito. They will face Cook, De La Rosa, Jimenez, and Marquis. They are D-Rox's best starters, with us missing Hammel. That seems to be too much of a coincidence to not think that they planned this ahead of time. At least we got our best against their best, Lincecum vs. Jimenez. And, in fact, they all seem to be evenly matched, based on overall stats, Sanchez vs. Cook, Martinez vs. De La Rosa, Zito vs. Marquis.

And we have pitchers who can or have done well in Colorado. Martinez has allowed 53% ground balls, which is what you want in Colorado. Sanchez also gets a fair amount of ground balls too, about 40%, which gives him a career GB/FB ratio of about 1.0, which is not too bad for a power strikeout pitcher who relies less on secondary pitches that often fail to do their magic in the thin air of Colorado. Of course, Lincecum gets a lot of groundballs, about 45% for his career, which is good and about 10% more than flyballs, along with all his strikeouts.

Zito is a contradiction. Unfortunately, Zito is a flyball pitcher, with a GB/FB ratio safely under 1.0, meaning he gives up a lot more flyballs than groundballs, and that's bad news. The good news there is that a good number of them are usually infield flyballs, but the bad news then is that this was when he was an A's pitcher, this year is his first with the Giants where his infield flyballs is near the percentage when he was with the A's (12.2% this year; 13.6% for his career, lowest as A's was 13.3%, avearge almost 16%). However, he has pitched well in Colorado: 4 starts, 27.0 IP, 21 hits, 12 BB, 14 SO, 3.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, so who knows?

In the second series, the Giants will throw these starters: Lincecum, Zito, Cain. It should be the same matchups unless D-Rox skip Hammel so that Cook faces Cain: Lincecum vs. Jimenez, Zito vs. Marquis, Cain vs. Hammel. Cain vs. Hammel should give us an advantage in this series, so that is not too bad. And the Giants have rocked at home this season, for the most part.

If we can get series wins from each, 3-1 and 2-1, we would be one game ahead of them in the wild card race (though with Florida big streak until the two most recent games lost, they could be passing both of us up soon, plus Atlanta is making a move too). Even if we split the first series and win the one at home, that still leaves us only one game behind D-Rox, which is still pretty good.

Of course, I would prefer the Giants go on a 10 game winning streak and just put them all behind us in the rearview mirror. We haven't had one good winning streak this season, and yes, that is because the offense has been so inconsistent this season. Still, as I noted in one of my comments somewhere, the offense with Franchez batting 2nd is an improvement so far, even though his OBP, SLG, and OPS are nothing to smile about (but .304 BA is), with the team averaging 4.77 runs when he starts.

And, aye, that is the rub, he hasn't started every game the Giants have had since obtaining him, only 13 out of the 20 games. He won't get his option vested if he keeps on missing so many games. And we won't get into the playoffs. Hopefully the training staff can keep him going, at least for the games against Colorado and LA.

What's That in the Road, A Head?

Looking ahead, after this 10 game stretch, there is a 9 game stretch starting on September 11 where we play the D-gers 3 games at home, then 3 games at home against D-Rox (last games), then 3 games on the road against the D-gers. Depending on how the Giants do in this 10 game stretch, that stretch could be even more important to our pennant hopes as we are playing both of our main competitors for the division title and the wild card race.


The good news is that interspersed with all these important games, we play a good number of games against losing teams. In-between the two series with D-Rox, we get to start our homestand next week against the D-Backs. We then get a tough road trip against the Phillies and Brewers, though the Brewers have experienced a second half slide, but then we start a home stand against the 'Dres, before that possibly important 9 game stretch against LA, CO, LA. Then we end the season with 4 against the struggling Cubs, 3 against Arizona in the last series at home, then travel down to San Diego for 3 against the 'Dres.

We potentially have 19 games against teams who are either down or sliding down in the second half mixed in with all the games against LA and CO (out of 41 games remaining). And even if we should not be up to the task and fall further behind after all these important games, with 10 games that should be easier to win at the end of the season, the Giants might still be able to make a late charge (with Bowker, Guzman, Rohlinger, Matos, Pucetas, Espinelli, and others on the bench) and threaten the leaders. And, of course, if we should be in the lead, put some more distance between us and them.

Go Giants!