Thursday, August 16, 2007

Bumgarner and Fairley Signs Officially; Bonds End Near?

{First, on a personal note, I've been laid off, so paradoxically, I will probably have less time to post items. I will do my best to, but I've never been laid off before so I'm not sure how I will react to this news plus there is the business of finding a new job. To those thinking it, :^) no, it was not because of my work performance due to spending so much time posting, but just the trouble you get when the sector you are in is retrenching a bit and they need to cut costs to raise margins. Anyway, I was busy dealing with that, so hence this is a bit of old news plus as the title notes, some new speculation on my part.}

Final Signings

As this report notes, Madison Bumgarner and Wendell Fairley signed. All the hang-wringing and angst at all the public Giants watering holes were all for naught, other than to show who supports Sabean and who doesn't. As I noted all along, they were not going to hold out. They weren't that good, frankly, to turn down a sure $1-2M. Even if it don't work out, you go to college afterward and you'll still have that money (post-tax natch!).

They got about as much money as I suspected. They probably wanted the symbolic nature of "$1M!" and "2M!", hence why Alderson signed earlier than they did. Meanwhile Sabean did his job and waited them out to see how badly they wanted that figure.

Deadline Was Meant to Be

As I was thinking about this recently, I figured that the dynamics of the situation forced this to happen:

1. There are clear slots for everyone, so you can do nothing and insist on slot and probably get around there, depending on the team.

2. Each player has an agent, so to justify his fee, he has to drag on out the negotiations, to make it seem like the player got his money's worth - else why get an agent, just sign for slot and be done with it.

3. The GMs have an incentive to drag things out as well, they have to appear to their owners that they are locking horns with the agents and trying their best to get lower than slot from the players.

Those all add up to a lot of players signing at the last moment.

It's like I've been saying elsewhere: you just won the lottery and been picked in the first round. You are guaranteed at least $1M, maybe a lot more.

However, you can drop dead tomorrow, or your arm could fall off, or you could sleep wrong and suddenly your mechanics are off, or your lucky charm broke, and you won't get drafted that high next year, unless you are clearly that good and can show it like JD Drew and Luke Hochvear did in independent league. But still, the LF could run into you and injure you: suddenly you are out of the game and your career. But at least you got your $1M+ by signing.

Now hopefully they can go out and impress over a short period of time.

Bonds End Near?

The Merc noted that the Giants were going to sit Roberts more in order to play Rajai Davis more. Roberts was understanding but made it known that he wants to play. How does this affect Barry?

The problem is that with Barry and Roberts, we have two players who shouldn't/couldn't play every day, requiring more OF on the bench. Barry is too old, so he needs his rest, while Roberts should be platooned (.772 vs RHP, .463 vs. LHP in 2007) with a right-handed hitter. If Rajai shows enough to start, the Giants might just move Roberts to LF, where he is an above average fielder, and play Davis in CF, with, say, Ortmeier taking up the ABs against LHP (though he hasn't been that good against them either, but at least would be getting regular ABs). That would mean no Bonds in 2008.

And I'm beginning to go there as well. I understand he is old and creaky, but at some point, even if he's still the hitter he is, we have to move on, even though we would take a big offensive hit. If 2008 is to be a rebuilding year, it doesn't make sense to sign Barry at big bucks, it would only make sense to sign a great free agent player who can play everyday, unlike Barry. But I don't think there is anyone coming free after 2008 who qualifies. So perhaps if Barry can accept lower bucks, then he should be signed on.

But this depends on the widow owner, Harmon, she was the one who pushed to re-sign Bonds this year, and it could happen again in 2008, perhaps if Barry promises to retire as a Giants after the season ends. So it could just be that Davis is just auditioning to become Roberts platoon buddy in 2008, with hopes of starting in 2009.

4 comments:

  1. How absent minded of me, I forgot to mention the other interesting news in the Merc.

    One is that the Giants might employ a 6 man rotation for the rest of the season - much as I've been suggesting for a while now, finally they are maybe doing it.

    Two is that Sabean is quoted again on the need for speed, "Speed is a big component of today's game, especially in our league." This was in following up a note of his that he still sees Roberts as a long-term fit for the team. Hence my suspicions that it could be Roberts, Davis, and Winn in the OF next year.

    Who knows, perhaps Winn could be the platoon buddy with Roberts and Davis (so it would Roberts/Winn against RHP, Winn/Davis against LHP) with Schierholtz getting most of the ABs in RF, with Lewis being the 4th OF (or perhaps Ortmeier since he can play 1B now).

    Hard to play both Roberts and Lewis because both are essentially platoon players only good against RHP.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Martin,

    Best of luck in finding new employment. I know that it can be daunting as I'm currently in the same process (job hunting)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Martin,

    Sorry to hear about your employment situation. On the bright side, you may end up finding a job that is loads better than were you were before. Sometimes life works in mysterious ways like that. Good luck on your job search.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks guys, I appreciate the kind words.

    Chris, best of luck on your job search as well!

    sfgfan, yeah, that's what a lot of people been telling me. Keep your fingers crossed for me, thanks.

    ReplyDelete

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