Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Another Reason Why Cain Must Be Kept

I have seen various people suggest that we trade Cain to get position prospects in exchange. I have been steadfast in saying that Cain and Lincecum must be the core of our rotation for the long-term, plus, of course, Barry Zito, since we ain't trading him away with that contract, no one would take him (though if he can continue to do as he has in his past three starts for all of 2008, maybe in 2010 or 11). I saw this blog linked at a diary at McCovey Chronicles and at El Lefty Malo, and it has a great profile and analysis of Matt Cain that I have not seen anywhere else before.

Cain Uniqueness

I have been saying that Cain is very rare for a pitcher, so young to do so well. Jerome Williams was in a unique class, as well, I recall someone comparing him with Dwight Gooden (as well as other pitchers who flamed out). But I never did any research on just how unique nor saw anything like that until this blog did the work. And blog did it the way I like to do it, show how rare something occuring is, in order to appreciate just how hard or rare it is.

First, he noted how rare it was for a 21 year old to throw so many innings in a season. Since 1901, there has only been 89 pitchers who are 21 or younger who threw 190 or more innings with an ERA better than league average. So, in the last 107 seasons, only 89 have done that. And in the last 10 years, only two (including Cain; C.C. Sabathia is the other one) have done that.

Second, he noted how rare it was for a 21 year old to strike out so many. Since 1901, his 179 strikeouts last season (when he was 21) ranks as the 25th most ever for pitchers 21 years or younger. And over the past 10 years, only three pitchers are among the top 25: Cain, Rick Ankiel, and Kerry Woods (not a great comparison group). Other familar names include Vida Blue, Dwight Gooden, Frank Tanana, Bob Feller, Bert Blyleven, and Christy Mathewson.

Third, he noted career trends that are very positive. His HR/9 had dropped, mainly because he is allowing less fly balls, dropping from around 52% to around mid-40's, while his ground balls have similarly risen. His BB/9 has fallen, though his K/9 has also fallen a lot - which I should note here that for some reason Cain was trying to nibble corners again this year and didn't rely on his fastball for strikes until early August, he had to notice (of all people) Morris throwing strikes to get that. Also, his average IP per start has risen from 6.15 to 6.57 IP.

Lastly, he needs 6 more starts this season to join a very elite group. Since 1901, there has been only six pitchers who have made at least 70 starts by age 22 and have a K/9 of over 7.5: Dwight Gooden, Vida Blue, Frank Tanana, Sam McDowell, Bob Feller, and Dennis Eckersley. With 74 starts, he only need 6 more (plus average approximately 7.5 K/9 over those six games; probable based on recent games, improbable based on how he was doing earlier this season) to join this very elite group of hurlers.

The blog noted that the average pitcher of this group had an ERA of 3.41 and 208 wins vs. 163 losses (or a .561 winning percentage). Thus far in his career, his ERA is 3.75 and 21-26, a .447 winning percentage. As the blog also noted, Cain has had the worse support this season, he should be around 11-8 record, one of the worse luck by far in the majors, by nearly double. By Bill Jame Pythagorean rule, they should be 66-66 right now, instead of 60-72, so the team has been pretty unlucky this year, by -6 games. In comparison, the D-backs, who lead the division, should be 62-70, instead of 74-58, so they have had good luck of +12 games. The Giants, by James's theory of regressing to the mean, should do much better next season whereas the D-backs should do much worse.

D-Backs Are Horribly Over-Hyped Because of Their Record

If that does happen, that would show how wrong the baseball writers have been this season, writing up the D-backs "success" with their young prospects while dismissing the Giants. There has been only one hitter with an OPS+ above 110 (Eric Brynes), and ALL their young prospects that writers have been drooling over have average OPS+ or worse. Stephen Drew has an OPS+ of 68, Chris Young has 88, Carlos Quentin has 68, Scott Hairston 67, even Justin Upton has a 73 right now. Their best young hitter is Mark Reynolds (23) with a 102 OPS+. Meanwhile, albeit in limited playing time, Frandsen 62, Lewis 98, Ortmeier 97, and Schierholtz 95.

And that's been a problem since at least 2003 when the D-backs Baby-backs were touted and none of them really did well, certainly not per the hype given them, and certainly not any of their prized position players have broken out, they have been steady major leaguers but no one is a star except for Brandon Webb, who was so well recognized that none of the prospect lists I could find that year would even list him, let alone count him among their top prospects. Meanwhile, the Giants have added Cain and Lincecum since then. So the D-backs best player by far is a player that no one thought much of, showing how lucky they were, and how wrong people were in hyping up their prospects back then, and, for now, in the present, as I showed with the OPS+ above.
Opined by ogc/ at
Labels: ,

9 comments:

  1. AnonymousTuesday, August 28, 2007 11:14:00 PM

    There are of course exceptions. Wouldn't you trade Cain for Hanley Rameriez straight up?

    ReplyDelete
  2. obsessivegiantscompulsiveWednesday, August 29, 2007 12:45:00 AM

    I would admit that I would be tempted by any number of great hitters, but 1) I don't see any of them being offered for him; 2) I think having Cain and Lincecum at the top of the rotation is key to playoff success in the future, particularly making it all the way to the coveted World Series, so I don't think even if the impossible happens and, say, A-Rod, Jose Reyes, or whoever, gets offered for Cain, straight up, I think I would have to pass.

    As I've documented in my posts, the key to winning is pitching, almost period (plus strong defense and adequate offense). That's often true with the other sports as well. The Giants as is, is not strong enough yet to deal off pitching without creating weakness there (unless you think there is a pitcher who can take over for Cain and do what he has done).

    The more I "see" Cain pitch (via stats), the more I think we need to keep him around long-term. Having a one-two punch of Cain and Lincecum will be a strength for many years, why break that up, only to try to find another duo? Most teams clamor to have one like either of them; we have two. That has to be an advantage that we can build around, but only if we are patient and not shoot ourselves in the foot by trading Cain.

    If I thought trading Cain would get us that the final offensive pieces that would make us odds-on favorites for the World Series, I would be sorely tempted. But only the hardy-est of fans today could say with a straight face that the Giants are that close.

    I think we will again be around .500 next season, and I think Bonds will probably be around with a promised 2008 good-bye tour so he can get to 3000 as a Giant and retire as a Giant. I'm thinking he would even take a discount to do it, because now it's only personal, his feats, not historic.

    By 2009, I think Cain-Lincecum will be so established that only the craziest of Giants fans would think of trading him.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousWednesday, August 29, 2007 2:16:00 PM

    I think Drew and (certainly) Upton are going through the normal rookie adjustment period. There's no reason not to believe the scouts' opinions that these guys are going to be very very good. I can think of quite a few other "hyped" prospects who struggled at first when brought up and some in the community quickly soured on them -- guys like Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, Mark Texiera, BJ Upton, and of course, that overhyped guy who bombed so terribly when first brought up at age 19, Alex Rodriguez. You've mentioned the Baby Backs many many times, but it's important to remember that that was a mainstream press moniker -- almost none of those guys were considered bluechip prospects by the prospect community. It just seems silly to me to suggest that Drew, Young, Upton, Jackson, Montero, Quentin and Reynolds are going to be a less productive bunch long-term than Lewis, Frandsen, Ortmeier, and Schierholtz. I have some strong hopes for Schierholtz, but I'm not going to suggest that looking at my computer I have a better handle on these guys than the paid professionals who've been watching and judging them day in and day out for several years.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousWednesday, August 29, 2007 2:30:00 PM

    You've tried to make this point before about the D'backs and it still does not hold water. You can point to all the peripheral stats you want, but the only one that really counts is the Won-Loss record. The D'backs are one of the best teams in baseball.....the Giants are one of the worst. The D'backs have reason to be excited about the future.......the Giants future is non-existent right now.

    ReplyDelete
  5. obsessivegiantscompulsiveWednesday, August 29, 2007 5:09:00 PM

    Anon, what I've said is that the experts have been wrong about the D-backs top prospects being so good before, so why can't they be wrong again? And the experts mocks the Giants prospects and yet they are doing OK themselves, thus far.

    Lets put it this way then, obviously Cain and Lincecum are about as good as they come, and yet there were plenty of other prospects who were rated above them. So the experts can be and has been wrong. So why can't I suggest that they could be wrong with these D-back players, based on what they have actually produced in the majors thus far? Maybe it could be a stumble, but Sean Burroughs was as good as these experts have seen and he flopped, and Matt Bush was considered a good pick and he bombed. And the D-gers have had numerous pitchers considered way better than the Giants prospects, Edwin Jackson, Greg Miller, Chad Billingsley, and yet we have Cain and Lincecum.

    So Boof, I take it then that you don't believe in Bill James Pythagorean theory that a team's win-loss record is derived from their runs scored and runs allowed, and that teams that win a lot more than their RS/RA suggest is due for a fall? That says the D-backs are due for a huge fallback.

    And Boof, if you think the Giants future is non-existent right now, that means that you don't think Cain or Lincecum is any good, so why bother being a baseball fan, then, let alone a Giants fan? If you cannot see the future when they are standing right in front of you, then I only have pity for you, because Cain and Lincecum are two of the most exciting prospects to come out of the Giants farm system in 35 years. They are our future and if you can't see that, then you really shouldn't be watching baseball.

    ReplyDelete
  6. allfrankWednesday, August 29, 2007 7:27:00 PM

    Hello Martin - Yes, I think Cain and Lincecum are so good they must be held on to - precisely because pitching (largely) is what wins playoffs (over and over good pitching neutralizes good hitting).
    And I agree with you regarding Pythagorean numbers. For whatever reason, this season has been just awful from a W-L perspective. But it is just true that, last I looked, in run differential, we were either slightly better or slightly worse than Az. And yes, Az cannot be expected to sustain that kind of winning performance with such a mediocre run differential.
    I don't think anyone can put a finger on what really lead to such a poor season for the Giants. Despite that, I still maintain that they are not that far from contending. The difficulty is in ascertaining who will bounce back next year and who is done. It seems clear Roberts, Winn, Klesko, Molina are still productive. The question is what to do with Omar, Aurilia, Durham. You hate to just cut them loose and eat their salaries, because at least one of them, likely 2, will b ounce back and be productive next year. The problem is standing pat, or appearing to stand pat, particularly with no back up plan. I think it is a very difficult decision on how to go forward. I do not think the Gs will cut all of these guys and put a starting 8 of 26 yr olds on the field next year. I offer no predictions on starters, but I don't think there will be much change in the OF. The top 4 will come from: Bonds, Roberts, Winn, Davis, Schierholtz, Lewis. Molina will be back. There could be much change on the IF, altho I don't see Frandsen as being a starter.. I think some, but not all, of Feliz, Omar, Durham, Aurilia, Klesko will be back but it is just impossible to predict which ones.
    With improved pitching, both SP and RP, normal years from most of the returning starting position players and 2 solid, but not all star level, IFs and I think we have the potential to win.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousWednesday, August 29, 2007 8:35:00 PM

    I agree that Cain & Lincecum are the best things that have been produced out of the Giants organization in a long time. They absolutely should not be traded right now.

    However, the problem is that these 2 or the only thing the Giants have to look forward to. There are zero position players in the minor league system that have a chance to be a credible starting player in the ML anytime in the next 4 years. These 2 guys could pitch all the shutouts they want and they will still be on a losing team because you can't win if you don't score runs. The Giants organization has not shown any ability to develop real hitting talent in many years. I have zero confidence that they will be able to reverse that trend.

    On the ther hand, Arizona has a passel of young, not yet fully developed talent both at the ML level and in their farm system. All they need are a couple of starting pitchers. Perhaps the Giants can trade them Cain, Lincecum & Sanchez for a veteran catcher with an attitude issue.

    ReplyDelete
  8. obsessivegiantscompulsiveThursday, August 30, 2007 9:47:00 PM

    Good points Allfrank. You have been making sense all summer, hard to say anything else but yes, I agree.

    The thing is, Boof, the Giants are scoring runs, but it has been stuttering all summer long. They have won 3 games by 13 runs. They are 6-2 in games where they won or lost by 5 runs. Where they were big losers was by 2 runs, 12-23. Even by 1 run, 20-23.

    What can be forseeable for 2008? I think Cain and Lincecum can have even better seasons. That will reduce the number of 1 and 2 run losses. I think Zito looks ready to take on the world as well. Lowry, who knows, other than he will get plenty hot in August, before petering out.

    Our bullpen should be improved. Hennessey has been steadily good this year. Wilson finally looks like he's ready for showtime. Walker looks ready to contribute. Whoever among Correia, Misch, and Sanchez doesn't make the rotation would make the bullpen stronger.

    All those will contribute to making the number of losses by 1 or 2 runs to go down.

    AZ on the other hand, will be crying for starting pitching soon, they have an old rotation with only one good starter in Webb. They might have one of the great offenses in the NL if the players matched their hype, and yet, as the Giants of the 60's showed, they could have 3-4 Hall of Fame hitters and still end up short.

    They have mainly been winning on the backs of their bullpen. A non-heralded bullpen, I would add, since you noted how good their position prospects are. And we all know that bullpens can vary widely in their performance, year to year, because of the small samples effect. Odds are that their 2008 performance will probably be closer to their 2006 results than their 2007 results, and they will fall down to the cellar again.

    ReplyDelete
  9. allfrankSunday, September 09, 2007 5:14:00 PM

    Martin, those who criticize Sabean in a vacuum really have nothing to say. Baseball, comprising so much failure, is a sport that makes it very easy for the perpetually critical. But pointing out Sabean failure's is almost always done out of context. I have been asking the ritics to name the team/GM that is vastly superior to Sabean. Then we can take Sabean's body of work and compare it to that other team that is so much superior. Of course, we have to start with the fact that Sabean takes over a losing team, then puts together one of the best W-L records in the history of baseball.
    So, critics, who do you want to put up against Sabean? And, BTW, Iwill conced there are af ew worthy rivals, but I predicat at the outset, that Sabean is one of the top GMs in the game and it will be difficult to find one or two who exceed his accomplishments.

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Labels

1984 Draft (1) 2007 Draft (15) 2007 Giants (52) 2008 Draft (22) 2008 Giants (53) 2008 season (6) 2009 Draft (18) 2009 Giants (87) 2009 season (24) 2010 Decade (12) 2010 Draft (11) 2010 Giants (137) 2010 NL ROY award (1) 2010 season (19) 2010's (3) 2011 Draft (9) 2011 Giants (84) 2011 season (8) 2012 Draft (11) 2012 Giants (93) 2012 season (11) 2013 Draft (3) 2013 Giants (39) 2013 season (5) 2014 (1) 2014 draft (5) 2014 Giants (79) 2014 season (16) 2015 Draft (4) 2015 Giants (50) 2015 season (10) 2016 Draft (1) 2016 Giants (45) 2016 season (6) 2017 Draft (3) 2017 Giants (27) 2018 Draft (8) 2018 Giants (50) 2018 Season (8) 2019 Draft (1) 2019 Giants (27) 2019 season (2) 2020 Decade (1) 2020 Giants (9) 20201 Draft (1) 2021 Giants (3) 2022 Giants (2) 2023 Giants (14) 2023 season (1) 2024 Giants (18) 2025 Giants (4) 25 man roster (11) 25th man fallacy (1) 26 man roster (1) 3B (1) 40 Man Roster (11) 49ers (1) 5-day rotation (1) 51/49 decisions (1) 6-man rotation (5) 89 Quake (1) 89 World Series (1) A-Ball (1) A-Gon (1) A-Rod (3) A's (6) AA-Ball (1) Aaron Rowand (25) Abiatal Avelino (1) accomplishments (1) ace pitcher (2) ace starter (4) Adalberto Mejia (6) Adam Duvall (5) AFL (4) aggression (1) AL Playoffs (1) Albert Suarez (5) Alen Hanson (3) Alex Cobb (1) Alex Dickerson (2) Alex Hinshaw (3) Alex Pavlovic (1) Alexander Canario (2) All-Star Game (1) almost perfect game (1) Alonzo Powell (1) Amphetamine (3) analysis (24) Andre Torres (14) Andres Torres (2) Andrew Baiiley (1) Andrew Bailey (1) Andrew McCutchen (2) Andrew Suarez (5) Andrew Susac (11) Andy Baggerly (2) Andy Sisco (1) Andy Suarez (9) Angel Joseph (1) Angel Pagan (17) Angel Villalona (30) Anniversary (1) appendicitis (1) Aramis Garcia (2) Arbitration (19) Armando Benitez (5) Armando Gallaraga (1) art of failure (1) Asia-Pacific signing (1) assessment (1) Astros (3) At the Rate They Are Going (1) ATT Park (1) Aubrey Huff (20) Austin Jackson (2) Austin Slater (5) Award (4) BABIP (3) Bam Bam Meulens (1) Barry Bonds (30) Barry Zito (77) baseball (1) Baseball America (3) Baseball Prospectus (6) Baseball Prospectus Bias Against Giants (4) baseball strategy (9) Baseball Study (18) baserunning (2) batting peripherals (1) batting stance analysis (1) batting title champion (1) Beat LA (9) bench players (4) Bengie Molina (14) Benjamin Snyder (1) Bert Blyleven (1) best manager (2) best practices (2) Beyond the Box Score (1) Bias Against Giants (1) Big 6 (9) Big Picture (3) Bill Hall (1) Bill James (1) Bill James Handbook (2) Bill Mueller (1) Bill Neukom (21) Billy Beane (3) biography (1) Blake Riverra (1) Blake Snell (1) blog news (3) Blog Philosophy (3) Bob Howry (2) Bob Mariano (1) Bobby Evans (4) Boston Red Sox (1) Brad Hennessey (5) Brad Penny (2) Brandon Bednar (1) Brandon Belt (50) Brandon Crawford (25) Brandon Hicks (1) Braves (5) breakout (2) Brett Bochy (4) Brett Pill (9) Brewers (1) Brian Anderson (1) Brian Bannister (3) Brian Bocock (2) Brian Cooper (1) Brian Horwitz (3) Brian Ragira (2) Brian Sabean (50) Brian Wilson (14) Bridegrooms (6) Bruce Bochy (36) Bryce Eldridge (2) Bucky Showalter (1) bulllpen (8) Bullpen (33) Business Plan (24) Buster Posey (105) Byran Reynolds (2) Byung-Hyun Kim (1) Cained (4) call-ups (3) Candlestick Park (1) Cards (13) Career Prospects (4) Carl Hubbell (1) Carlos Beltran (4) Carlos Gomez (1) Carney Lansford (2) Carson Whisenhunt (2) Carter Jurica (1) Casey Kelly (1) Casey McGeHee (3) catcher injury (5) catching (3) CBT penalty (1) CC Sabathia (1) censorship (2) CEO (2) Chad Gaudin (5) Charles Culberson (5) Charlie Culberson (3) Chase Johnson (3) cheating (1) Chillax (1) Chris Brown (1) Chris Gloor (1) Chris Heston (19) Chris Lincecum (1) Chris Marrero (1) Chris O'Leary (1) Chris Ray (4) Chris Shaw (4) Chris Stewart (4) Chris Stratton (30) Chris Strattton (1) Christian Arroyo (7) Christmas (1) Christopher Dominguez (4) Christy Mathewson (1) Chuckie Jones (2) Clay Hensley (3) Clayton Blackburn (10) Clayton Tanner (3) Closer (9) closer by committee (3) Coaches (4) coaching changes (1) Cody Hall (2) Cody Ross (8) Col (1) Comeback Award (1) Commissioner (1) comparison (3) competitive advantage (1) Competitive Balance Tax (2) Competitive Cycles (2) competitiveness (2) Conner Menez (1) Connor Joe (3) Connor Nurse (1) Conor Gillaspie (25) contender (1) contract extension (3) contract negotiations (2) contract signing (7) Coordinator (1) core competency (1) Core Rotation (1) Cory Gearrin (5) Cory Guerrin (1) Cory Hart (1) Craig Whitaker (2) Cubs (1) Curt Young (1) cuts (1) Cy Young Award (5) cyber-relief (1) D-backs (16) D-gers (36) D-Rocks (3) D-Rox (17) D.J. Snelten (3) Dallas McPherson (1) Dan Ortmeier (11) Dan Otero (2) Dan Runzler (6) Dan Slania (3) Dan Uggla (1) Daniel Carbonell (1) Daniel Slania (2) Dany Jimenez (1) Darren Ford (1) Dave Righetti (1) Dave Roberts (11) David Aardsma (1) David Bell (1) David Huff (2) David Loewenstein (1) Decade of the Giants (12) decline (1) Defense (11) Deferred Money (1) deleted comment (1) Denard Span (3) depth (1) Dereck Rodriquez (7) Derek Holland (18) Derek Law (11) Detroit Tigers (1) DFA (3) DH (2) Dick Tidrow (2) dictionary (1) direction (1) Dirty (1) DL (3) dodgers (15) Donald Snelten (1) Donovan Solano (1) Draft (11) Draft Analysis (29) Draft Bonus (7) draft list (3) draft philosophy (2) draft signing (3) Draft Strategy (12) Draft Study (9) Draft Success (4) drafting (5) Dres (16) Drew Pomeranz (1) DRS (1) Dynasty (3) Earl Weaver (1) Edgar Renteria (13) Eduardo Nunez (4) Edwin Escobar (5) Ehire Adrianza (26) Eli Whiteside (4) Elimination game (1) EME (2) Emmanuel Burriss (18) end of an era (1) epic season (6) era (1) Eric Byrnes (1) Eric Surkamp (6) Erik Cordier (1) Eugenio Velez (12) evaluation (3) Evan Longoria (3) Evan Longoriia (1) extension (7) fan outrage (10) fan rants (2) fanfest (1) FanGraphs (3) Farhan Zaidi (37) feature reliever (1) felony conviction (1) Fielding (5) Fielding Stats (4) finger injury (3) first post-season press conference (3) Francisco Peguero (4) Fred Lewis (3) Freddie Lewis (17) Freddie Sanchez (4) Freddy Sanchez (7) Free Agency (8) free agent misses (1) Free agent possibilities (28) Free agent signing (24) Free agent signings (21) front office (3) Gabe Kapler (1) Game Score (3) gamer-tude (1) Garrett Williams (1) Gary Brown (26) Geno Espinelli (1) George Kontos (10) Ghosts of Giants Drafts (2) Giants (10) Giants Announcer (1) Giants blogs (3) Giants Chat (4) Giants Classic Rotation (1) Giants Defense (4) Giants Draft (16) Giants Drafts (9) Giants Farm System (34) Giants Franchise record (2) Giants Future (66) Giants GM (13) Giants Greats (3) Giants hitting manual (1) Giants Leadership (1) Giants manager (1) Giants No-Hitter (5) Giants Offense (34) Giants Offseason (24) Giants Pitching (10) Giants President of Baseball Operations (5) Giants Strategy (45) GiDar (1) Gino Espinelli (1) glossary (1) Gold Glove Award (1) good players (4) good will (1) Gorkys Hernandez (2) Graphical Player (1) great players (4) Gregor Blanco (18) Gregor Moscoso (1) Gregory Santos (1) Guillermo Moscoso (2) Guillermo Mota (2) Guillermo Quiroz (1) Gustavo Cabrera (4) Hall of Fame (10) Hall of Shame (4) Hank Aaron (5) Happy Holidays (2) Hate mail (1) Hayden Birdsong (2) healthy (1) heart-warming (1) Heath Hembree (8) Heath Quinn (1) Hector Correa (1) Hector Sanchez (12) Heliot Ramos (13) Henry Sosa (8) HGH (1) Hidden Game (1) high expectations (1) high school focus in draft (1) high velocity hitters (1) high velocity pitchers (1) hiring (2) hiring process (1) Hitter's League (1) Hitting (19) Hitting Coach (1) hitting mechanics (3) hitting pitchers (2) hitting streak (1) Hitting; (1) Home Run Career Record (7) Home Run Hitting Contest (1) Hunter Bishop (4) Hunter Pence (25) Hunter Stickland (1) Hunter Strickland (9) Ian Gardeck (1) Idea (4) IFA (1) improvement (2) Indictment (1) Infield (1) injury (7) instant replay (2) instructor (1) Interesting Question (1) International Free Agent Pursuits (5) International Signings (5) interview (5) Investment (1) Ivan Ochoa (2) J.P. Martinez (1) J2 (1) Jack Taschner (4) Jackson Williams (3) Jacob Dunnington (1) Jacob Gonzalez (2) Jacob Junis (1) Jacob McCasland (1) Jae-gyun Hwang (1) Jake Dunning (2) Jake Peavy (39) Jake Smith (1) Jake Wong (1) Jalen Miller (1) Jandel Gustave (1) Japanese Starters (1) Jarrett Parker (10) Jason Heyward (1) Jason Maxwell (2) Jason Stoffel (1) Javier Lopez (5) JC Gutierrez (3) JD Davis (1) Jean Machi (6) Jeff Kent (1) Jeff Samardzija (28) Jeff Suppan (1) Jeremy Affeldt (12) Jeremy Shelley (2) Jerome Williams (1) Jesse English (2) Jesse Foppert (1) Jesus Guzman (4) Jimmy Rollins (1) Joaquin Arias (14) Joe Panik (18) Joe Torre (1) Joey Bart (6) Joey Martinez (2) Johan Santana (1) John Barr (1) John Bowker (22) John Thorn (1) Johneshwy Fargas (2) Johnny Bench (1) Johnny Cueto (31) Johnny Monell (1) Johnny Rucker (1) Jonah Arenado (1) Jonathan Mayo (1) Jonathan Sanchez (49) Jordan Hicks (1) Jordan Johnson (1) Jorge Soler (2) Jose Canseco (1) Jose Casilla (1) Jose Guillen (3) Jose Mijares (3) Jose Uribe (2) Josh Osich (9) JT Snow (1) Juan Perez (6) Juan Uribe (9) Juggling Monkey (1) Julian Fernandez (7) Julio Urias (1) Jung Hoo Lee (4) jury (1) Just Say No (1) Keaton Winn (1) Kelby Tomlinson (5) Kendry Flores (2) Keury Mella (2) Kevin Correia (2) Kevin Frandsen (22) Kevin Gausman (3) Kevin Pillar (2) Kevin Pucetas (10) KNBR (1) Kung Fu Panda (30) Kyle Crick (16) Kyle Harrison (7) laid off (1) Landen Roupp (1) Larry Baer (3) Larry Ellison (1) Lead-off (2) leadoff (1) left-handed (1) Lew Wolff (1) LHP (1) Lineup (17) lineup construction (4) Lineup position (1) links (1) Logan Webb (3) Lon Simmons (1) long relief (2) Long-Term Contract (22) long-term planning (3) losing streak (1) Lucius Fox (3) luck (2) Luis Angel Mateo (2) Luis Matos (2) Luis Toribio (1) lunatic fringe (1) Mac Marshall (1) Mac Williamson (12) Madison Bumgarner (185) Mailbox (1) Malcolm Gladwell (1) management change (3) management issues (5) managerial value (5) Manny (1) Marc Kroon (2) Marco Luciano (4) Marco Scutaro (12) Mark DeRosa (8) Mark Gardner (1) Mark Melancon (4) Marlon Byrd (1) Martin Agosta (7) Marvin Miller (1) Masahiro Tanaka (1) Mason Black (1) Mason McVay (1) Matsuzaka (1) Matt Cain (160) Matt Chapman (2) Matt Daniels (3) Matt Downs (2) Matt Duffy (8) Matt Graham (1) Matt Holliday (1) Matt Krook (2) Matt Moore (15) Matt Morris (2) Mauricio Dubon (2) Mechanics (4) Media (17) Media Bias (17) media hypocrisy (1) Media Trade Idea (3) Medical (1) Mediocy (11) Mediots (6) Melk-Gone (1) Melky Cabrera (14) Melvin Adon (1) memories (1) mental (1) Merkin Valdez (8) Message in a Bottle (1) methodology (2) MI (1) Michael Conforto (1) Michael Main (1) Michael Reed (1) Michael Trout (1) middle infield (2) Miguel Cabrera (2) Miguel Gomez (1) Miguel Tejada (5) Mike Fontenot (3) Mike Ivie (1) Mike Kickham (9) Mike Leake (11) Mike Matheny (1) Mike Morse (10) Mike Yastrzemski (1) Mike Yazstremski (2) milestone (1) minor league (1) minor league contract (4) minors (11) mismanagement (1) misnomer (1) mistakes (2) MLB (2) MLB stupidity (2) MLB Success (7) MLB Trade Rumors (1) MLBAM (1) MLBTR (1) MLE (1) Mock Draft analysis (8) Modern Portfolio Theory (1) Modus Operandi (2) MPT (1) MVP (2) Natanael Javier (1) Nate Schierholtz (45) Nathanael Javier (1) Nationals (1) Naysayers (2) Negotiations (1) Neil Ramirez (1) NewPQS (8) Next Gen (1) Nick Hundley (2) Nick Noonan (27) Nick Pereira (1) Nick Vander Tuig (2) Nick Vincent (1) NL Champions (2) NL Playoffs (1) NL West (29) NL West Division Title (20) NL West Future (1) NLCS (22) NLCS MVP (2) NLDS (8) Noah Lowry (14) non-roster invitees (2) non-tenders (3) Nori Aoki (4) NPB (1) NRI (1) Oakland A's (4) OBP (1) oddities (1) Offense (4) offensive era (1) ogcPQS (6) Omar Vizquel (3) one-run games (3) Opener (1) openers (1) Opening Day (6) opening day pitcher (3) opening day roster (11) Optimism (1) Osiris Matos (2) Outfield (3) outfielder curse (1) overturned (1) Ownership (7) Pablo Sandoval (97) Padres (1) Panda (6) Pandoval (1) passing (1) Pat Burrell (15) Pat Misch (5) Patrick Bailey (2) Payroll (11) PECOTA (1) Pedro Feliz (12) PEDS (10) Perfect Game (2) perjury trial (1) personal (2) Personal Reminiscence (2) Pessimism (1) Pete Palmer (1) Pete Putila (1) Pete Rose (3) Peter Magowan (2) Phil Bickford (3) Phillies (7) philosophy (1) Phoenix Theory of Rebuilding (1) Pierce Johnson (2) Pitch Count (3) pitch framing (1) pitch value (1) Pitcher hitting 8th (1) pitcher’s health (1) Pitchers League (1) Pitching (27) pitching analysis (4) pitching department (1) pitching development (4) Pitching Rotation (90) pitching staff (6) pitching strategy (2) plate discipline (1) platoon players (2) Play Ball (1) player acquisition (1) player budget (2) player development (8) playoff (2) playoff analysis (6) playoff competitiveness (1) playoff hopes (39) playoff roster (2) playoff rotation (6) Playoff Success (29) Playoff Win Effective (3) Playoff Win Efficient (2) Playoffs (44) postmortem (2) PQS (109) press conference (2) pressure (2) priorities (1) Projected Record (6) projection (2) projections (2) promotion (2) prospect (4) prospect analysis (7) prospect future (2) prospect handling (1) Prospect of Note (3) prospect promotion (1) prospect study (3) Prospects (46) QO costs (1) quality starts (1) questions (1) radio great (1) Rafael Rodriquez (8) Rajai Davis (2) Ralph Barbieri (1) Ramon Ramirez (3) Randy Johnson (10) Randy Messenger (2) Randy Winn (14) Rangers (5) Ranking (4) rant (1) raspberry (1) rationalization (1) Ray Durham (5) Rayner Arias (1) re-sign (2) realist (1) Rebuilding (5) Rebuilding Myths series (1) rebuttal (1) Red Sox (1) Reds (5) Reggie Crawford (1) rehab (1) reliever (3) relievers (1) Relocation Concession (2) Research (2) resource scarcity (1) rest for starters (1) Retired (3) Retirement (3) return (1) Reyes Moronta (3) RHP (1) Ricardo Genoves (1) Rich Aurilia (7) Rick Peterson (1) Rickie Weeks (1) Ricky Oropesa (3) right-handed (1) risk mitigation (2) risk profile (1) Roberto Gomez (1) Rockies (2) Rod Beck (1) Roger Kieschnick (13) Roger Metzger (1) Ron Shandler (2) Ron Wotus (1) Ronnie Jebavy (1) Ronnie Ray (1) rookie debut (1) Rookie of the Year (1) Roster (4) rosterbation (2) Rotation by Committee (1) Rotation Chaos (1) ROY (2) Royals (3) Rule 5 (2) Rule 5 Draft Pick (5) rumors (9) run differential (1) run prevention (1) run production (1) runs support (1) Russ Ortiz (11) Russell Carleton (1) Ryan Garko (2) Ryan Klesko (4) Ryan Rohlinger (2) Ryan Theriot (3) Ryan Vogelsong (93) Ryder Jones (2) Sabean Naysayers (7) Sabermetric Thoughts (6) sabermetrics (5) SABR (1) Salary speculation (3) SALLY (1) Sam Dyson (7) Sam Long (1) Sam Selman (1) Sam Wolff (1) San Jose Giants (1) San Jose Relocation (3) Sandro Fabian (2) Sandy Rosario (1) Santiago Casilla (9) scenarios (1) Scott Boras (1) Scott Harris (2) Scott McClain (2) Scott Shuman (1) Scouting (2) Sean Hjelle (5) season review (1) secret sauce (2) Sergio Romo (17) Seth Corry (6) SF Giants (2) Shilo McCall (1) Shohei Ohtani (3) Shohei Otani (2) Shooter (1) shutouts (1) Signature Song (1) signing (13) Silly-Ball (3) South Atlantic League (1) South Bay Rights (1) SP usage (1) spin rate (1) splits (2) Sports Illustrated (1) Spring Training (16) stabilized stats (1) standings (1) starting CF (1) starting lineup (19) starting pitching (96) starting rotation (5) StatCast (2) Statcorner (1) State of the Giants (1) statistics (2) STATS (1) Steamer (1) Stephen Vogt (1) Steroids (7) Steve Edlefsen (4) Steve Johnson (3) Steve Okert (8) Steven Duggar (7) strikeout rate (2) Sue Burns (1) sunk costs (1) superstition (1) tactics (1) talent evaluation (4) Tax (1) team culture (1) Team of the 2010's (2) Team of the 2020's (1) Team of the Decade (4) Team Speed (1) Team Support (1) Thank You (2) The Evil Ones (tm) (1) The Giants Way (2) The Hardball Times (1) The Hey Series (19) The Hey Zaidi Series (4) Thomas Joseph (3) Thomas Neal (9) Tigers (4) Tim Alderson (17) Tim Hudson (39) Tim Lincecum (195) TINSTAAPP (1) Todd Linden (3) Todd Wellemeyer (6) Tommy Joseph (3) Tony Watson (4) Top 100 Prospects (1) Top 14 Roster (1) Top Draft Position (4) top Giants prospects (6) top player list (1) top prospect list (6) Trade (12) Trade Analysis (22) Trade Idea (9) Trade PTBNL (2) Trade Rumors (30) trading (1) training staff (2) Training Tool (1) transitional season (1) Travis Blackley (1) Travis Ishikawa (47) Trevor Brown (5) Trevor Gott (1) tribute (1) Tristan Beck (2) turning point (1) Ty Blach (23) Tyler Austin (1) Tyler Beede (10) Tyler Cyr (1) Tyler Horan (1) Tyler McDonald (1) Tyler Rogers (2) Tyler Walker (2) umpire mistake (3) Umpires (3) USA Today (1) utility (1) Voros McCracken (1) Waiver Roulette (1) Waldis Joaquin (5) walks (1) Wall of Fame (1) WAR (4) Warrior Spirit (1) Wendell Fairley (10) What-If Scenario (3) wild card (1) wild card race (1) Will Bednar (1) Will Clark (1) Will Smith (7) Will Wilson (3) Williams Jerez (1) Willie Mac Award (1) Willie Mays (1) Willy Adames (1) winning on the road (1) Winter League (1) winter meetings (3) World Series (28) World Series Champions (14) WS Ring Bling (1) xBABIP (1) xwOBA (1) Yankees (1) Yusmeiro Petit (40) Zack Cozart (2) Zack Minasian (2) Zack Wheeler (9) Zaidi Haters (1) Zaidi MO (2) Zaidi Rotation (3) ZiPS (1) Zito Role (2)