I wrote most of this (I also added new thoughts) in response to the comments made in response to the interview Tim Kawakami did with Farhan Zaidi (only subscribers):
Kawakami: Farhan Zaidi on this frustrating Giants season, why it happened and what comes next
ogc thoughts
I feel for Zaidi, I feel for us fans. This season is much like 2011, when tough choices had to be made. You knew the old guys were not likely to repeat how great they did over recent seasonal norms, like Crawford (or back then Huff), but there was no realistic path to getting a repeat performance other than signing them again and hoping for the best. Management was stuck with trying to bring back everyone, it is not like they could find a more reliable player who can produce 5+ bWAR on a short-term modestly sized contract.
2022 Season Was Going to Be Tough from the Get-Go
But this season could have been easily forecasted, once we knew that the plan was for most of the gang to return.
- First, they were an incredible +14 in one-run games, so just that alone dropped the repeat of the same team from 107 wins to 93 wins.
- Furthermore, most large one-run extremes are regressed the following season, so that drops another 3-7 wins there, pushing us to 86-90 wins.
- They also played better in the second half, after mid-season trades, so had they instead continued their first half win rate, they would have won 3 less games, bringing us to 83-87 wins.
- Then there are two clear expected loss of wins. First, Posey 3.5 bWAR replaced by Bart, and given Bart's prior struggles, expecting 3 less wins is reasonable, which puts the Giants at 80-84 wins.
- Next, Crawford had 6.1 bWAR after averaging about 2 wins the prior four season, which drops another four wins to 76-80 wins. Making a losing season look very possible, just as possible as being above .500.
- And that's assuming nobody disappoints in performance in 2022 vs. 2021 among the rest.
Thus, 2022 looked like it would be an up and down season around .500, as a probable result.
Still again, you never know. Like last season, which also looked like a borderline playoff contender as well. Things could work out again.
But there are a lot of factors, as I outlined above, that without a repeat, it would be very hard to repeat 2021's performance. A .500-ish season looked likely without some youthful boosts or key waiver pick ups, and so far, nothing much significant in terms of unexpectedly good performances, except for Junis and Bart.
And if anything, there have been regressions or bad luck (like Rogers, whose FIP is actually okay, mid-3's, but he has one in the mid-to-high 4's). Especially the Brandons, who were especially poor producers this season, not even 1.0 bWAR between the two, when they produced 8.8 bWAR last season. Just based on them, the Giants appear to be doing very well to stay around .500, and had they continued that good production, that would have added nearly 7 wins, pushing their current 60-61 record, leaving them far behind in race for last playoff spot, to 67-54, just behind the Padres for the last playoff spot.
Major Free Agents are no Panacea...
So, the Giants could have went out and spent for free agents, and try to make up for the losses I noted above. But as we found out when we signed Cueto, Samardzija, and Melancon to do a similar improvement of the team, it did not exactly work out optimally or effectively. So the Giants could have spent a lot of money, like many are clamoring for, and end up in a similar position, only, now they would have two or three big contracts to digest again, and hurt their chances to compete when the young prospects come up over the next two seasons.
There are hidden landmines with free agents (generally health, but sometimes other issues, like addiction to drugs or alcohol; hello Sudden Sam McDowell), so there is generally a good reason why his prior team let him go (unless it is a Boras client, and the team had no choice), and studies have found that teams generally don't let go of players they think will still perform as well as before. So you are rolling the dice with signing them, but at least are trying to improve the talent situation.
... But the Timing is Wrong Anyway
Also, the unspoken truth for the Giants, during the Zaidi years, is that the team ownership and management had decided to tread water while waiting for the prospects in the minors. I would say, in particular, that they are waiting for Marco Luciano to matriculate to the majors, at which point, they will probably spend large sums to build a truly competitive team. So the timing right now is wrong for them to spend on free agents lavishly.
As he mentioned in this interview (he's usually more secretive), Zaidi noted that this past off-season and this coming off-season was viewed as transitional because of the expiring contracts, from the very beginning of him joining the Giants. The unspoken, until now, goal (which I think most of us assumewd when he took over) was to wait out all the large contracts to expire, at which point Zaidi can start making more noise in the free agent market, for the players he really likes, as the team prepares for the new young stars to build around.
Not that there weren't free agents he didn't like, but with players like Posey, the Brandons and Longoria, Cueto and Samardzija, taking a big chunk of payroll, plus a roster of old/older journeymen platoon players, there was a lot of risk involved with drop offs in production, whether due to age, lack of consistent talent, or both. That's why competitive teams age out, the old core either get bad or they get injured too often, and the production becomes a high variability situation. Some years are up, some years are down. And especially when Cueto and Samardzija's big contracts were still on the books.
So they talked annually about winning, but was planning to tread water by not pursuing many big free agents, and see how it goes. Because they can compete if the old players produce and stay healthy enough, but as we know, players get injured a lot more and more seriously, as they get into their mid-30's. Leading to a lot of up and down seasons.
He's Been Saying and Doing This For a While Now
If you listened carefully to his introductory press conference and the following seasons opening and closing press conferences, you would hear the key terms repeated. Staying competitive. Our goal is to win and get into the playoffs. Over and over.
But then they don't go and spend for free agents, they instead try to find the bargains on the market, play waiver wire roulette, and, for the most part, trade off valuable players to pick up interesting prospects. This shows that they are unwilling to spend to win. But they have to state that winning is the goal.
That's because history shows that SF Giants fans don't show up for teams expected to lose, this is how this ownership team got together and bought the team, because the team was going to leave SF due to that. So that's all they can say, that they are trying to win. Same dance Sabean had to do in the late 2000's waiting for his prospects to develop, milking Bonds last seasons for attendance, waiting for Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Posey to develop and compete in the majors.
When you are treading water like this, it is wasteful to spend money on mid-range free agents (like Cueto, Samardzija, and Melancon), you either go large (Harper) or you go bargain basement (what Zaidi did), as you buy time until the prospects start to make a big impact on the overall roster. So this has been the master plan for the team for the most part, but 2021's surprisingly good season set the team up for some disappointments, as well as forced them to sign back Crawford and Belt, when they were trying to shed the bigger contracts, before the young players arrive.
The Light is at the End of the Tunnel: 2024 Season
And the sprouts are there. Webb has been a wonder, and looks to be an anchor ace of the rotation for the rest of his arbitration years (and likely a couple more, I would not be surprised if the Giants want to do a Bumgarner-esque deal this off-season, probably announced in spring, though perhaps his TJS might lead to some caution there, as injuries at a young age is a red warning flag about long term health). Bart is starting to perform more to his expected standing as the #2 pick (which historically, is a losing proposition for fans, because less than 30% of them become the good players you are looking to build a team around). And Doval is another core young player on the MLB roster.
Then there are the prospects. Luciano has been looking good, and if he didn't miss two months for his back injury, he probably would have been ready for majors next season (that injury and missing 2020 stole crucial development time, else he would probably be in the majors now, or at least AAA). Moreover, Kyle Harrison looks like a sure thing to reach the majors sometime in 2023, and be co-ace with Webb in 2024.
That would be a good core of stars to build around, assuming they continue to develop as expected (and stay healthy), 2024 seems to the year they coalesce.
There is Depth to the Farm System for Complementary Players
Then there are a lot of interesting prospects in the minors who can be good complementary pieces to this core. Ramos, who was on track to reach the majors very young, but missed all that time, but I still think he can start in 2024. I think stardom is still possible for him. This is only his 22-YO season, so in 2024, he would only be 24, which is still very young to become a major leaguer.
And plenty of other prospects with a variety of interesting strengths are in the system, and rising up the ladder. Villar. Matos. Pomares. Schmitt. Brown. McCray. Wilson. Arteaga. Toribio. Bishop. Bailey. Hilson. Hjelle. Murphy. Swiney. Mikulski. Waites. Roupp. Rodriguez. LLovera. Black. Bednar. McDonald. Avila. Santos. Beck.
And there are players they already have in the majors, who look good as complementary pieces to help the transition. Yaz, of course. JD Davis, who has been hitting well against both sides, he could be like Jeff Kent, used part time for some reason, and blossoms with regular play. Flores. Thairo. Slater. Maybe Pedersen, if they can sign him long term. Junis. Garcia. Long. Rogers, he's just having a bad luck year, his FIP is fine.
The Future is Hazy and Yet You Still Must Make Some Plans
And, of course, Zaidi can't wait for the 2023 offseason to start signing free agents. You are at the whims of the free agent market, and even if what you want is there, they might not want to join the Giants, or the other team outbids you. So for this off-season, I expect Zaidi to spend for mid-range or better players, to get them in place so that once the young budding stars reach the majors, they can compete for wins in earnest. And, of course, not block any of the young prospects expected to come up.
We'll see if it works or not, but whenever you are in the in-between transitional period between competitive periods, there will be seasons like this where the team will disappoint (like this season) or overachieve (like last season) or just be average (like Zaidi's first two seasons). And 2024 could become 2025 if development does not advance as expected, or health isn't as good as hoped for (always risky with pitching; that is why you want to overload in them, so you have more than you need, ideally).
Thus it is tricky as to when a team should be signing the big free agents. If you sign them too soon, you just wasted a lot of money, while also giving yourself a worse draft pick (presumably the big signing will add some wins to the team, and drop you in the draft; or you can change your entire pitching mechanics and see how it goes, like Zito did). You sign them too late, you waste some good seasons by your best players of this era. And sometimes the prospect zooms to the majors quickly, like Lincecum did, so there was no way to prepare for that.
But given how bad the bullpen was this season, probably need to find this era's version of Affeldt and Romo, and finding a Casilla or Vogelsong is always good. As well as a Torres and Uribe.
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