I wrote this a while back in a comment about losing GM Scott Harris. Then I added more...
Then Pete Putila was hired...
Then I found this post again, it was mostly writtten, but now I've added the section on the hiring of Putila, since it is related.
ogc thoughts
Honestly, when Harris was hired, I was disappointed. I liked the poaching of other team's young execs, to inject other successful ideas and concepts into the Giants player development, and so I had been hoping to grab someone from the Cleveland Guardians (then by their prior team name), because they have been successful in finding prospects in the draft as well as via trades. I hope his replacement will bring new ideas from his or her career experiences.
What I'm worried about with Harris taking off is who he is taking away with him. Given that Bannister was one of the people quoted about him, in The Athletic article on his departure, he's one I'm worried about. And generally, I am worried about losing the knowledge in pitching we have with Daniels, Bannister, and Bailey, among others.
Pitching is Key to Championships
Because I believe pitching is the key to being championship competitive. You can be long term playoff and division competitive like the A's, Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, and other teams, but if you want to be strong enough to go deep into the playoffs and win it all, you need elite pitching and fielding.
That is what two major studies on winning the playoffs concluded, and from what I've learned about baseball in studying it for over 20 years, devoting many of it to studying quality starts. If you want to improve your chances of winning any particular game, you seek out and obtain great pitchers. They can dominate not only each game but over a full season (and the playoffs). So you want pitchers capable of throwing a season's worth of quality starts, not pitchers who are likely to only pitch parts of the season (that is, pitchers with injury histories) because they might not be available when you need them most, which is the playoffs.
Not that these great pitchers are always available during the playoffs, either. With pitchers, you are always playing with volatile dynamite, their body can go bad at any time, unpredictably. But the odds are much greater for them than for the injury prone pitchers, which has been the hallmark of the teams Zaidi has built for the Dodgers and the Giants.
Zaidi's Strategy So Far has not been that Successful Winning Championships in Full Seasons
The tap dancing of filling 162 starts seasons that Zaidi has espoused, and which LA has perfected, is great for getting to the playoffs. But once you get there, you are basically subject to the law of chance, because you are gambling each season that enough of your good starting pitchers are healthy and productive during the playoffs. And you see this with the A's too, who while not signing oft-injured pitchers, also did not scout for or take risks on elite pitchers, seeking the security of college pitchers who are crafty pitchers.
And as we saw with the Giants, even when you have 30-start pitchers, things will crop up. Lincecum was reduced to being a super reliever in the 2012 playoffs. Cain was injured for the 2014 playoffs. And they were relatively healthy pitchers entering those seasons. Zaidi in LA and SF would stock his rotation with pitchers who you hope will be around for 15-20 starts, and not injured for most of the season. And cobble together a rotation on the fly, depending on who is actually healthy.
Future Looking Good
At least he has a great start with Webb doing so well, and Harrison charging up the system and looking super-elite. That's a great 1-2 tandem for four or more years, once Harrison reaches the majors. I would like to see Zaidi get a third wheel who is similar in production and full season starts, in the next two seasons. This rolling of the dice to see who is available for the playoffs is not the way to maximize the chances of winning a championship.
And, to be fair, it is not like having a rotation of aces is a guarantee. See the Phillies of 2011, they copied the Giants, who they lost to in 2010 because they only had 3 aces, and the Giants 4. They acquired another ace (Oswalt, if I recall right), but lost in the first round because, while their pitchers did well, the other team also pitched well, and then it becomes more of a coin toss who wins.
Still, the more you have, the more chance you advance to the next round. And the more chances you have of winning it all. For all the talk about maximizing the chances of a team winning it all, I've never seen many teams, besides the Giants and Phillies, focus on building up a great rotation and bullpen.
Whereas relying on injury prone pitchers leave you to the vagaries of fate and chance. As great as the Dodgers been during the Friedman era, they have yet to win a full season championship (2020 was, at best, an exhibition, as the players have a lot better chance of staying healthy for the playoffs) while being touted by some as the Team of the 2010 Decade, over the Giants, because they won so many games while getting into the playoffs regularly. That was like the Giants during the 1960's, winning a lot of games, but always coming up short, in spite of regularly fielding one of the best lineups in history.
With only Webb to count on in 2023, and Harrison likely at least one season before becoming an ace level starter (even Lincecum and Cain had rough first seasons before dominating regularly, and Bumgarner was about to implode until Tidrow helped him figure out his mechanics), Zaidi needs to find another co-ace for the 2023 season to pair with Webb, and hopefully be a trio of aces with Harrison in 2024. But at least they have Webb and Harrison, many teams don't even have one legit ace level SP, let alone two.
Addendum: Pete Putila, New Giants GM
Thought I would include this in here on Pete Putila hiring to the GM position. I've been impressed with the pitchers that the Astros have been finding, where they were mediocre elsewhere and then by focusing on the parts of their repertoire that is successful and productive in the MLB, improve their overall pitching performance and add another MLB pitcher to the roster. He has been a key member of the player development team with the Astros, so I would expect him to bring some of that to the Giants, and be integrated with the knowledge of the Pitching Science team here on the Giants.
Roger Munter, a great Giants blogger (a must follow on social media), wrote an article on Putila (Substack subscription available; this article was free), and discusses the Astros' various player development successes, which is credited to Putila, in contrast to the disappointments with the Giants under Zaidi:
Putila worked his way up through the organization, reportedly becoming a key conduit between the organization’s cutting edge analytics department and the players. Putila’s work in communicating advanced information to players to help them buy into suggested changes made him a rising star in the organization, ultimately leading him to the head of Player Development and (before coming to the Giants), Assistant General Manager. ...
Much of this development success can be (and has been) credited to Putila’s work in the organization. During his time in Houston, Putila has worked to integrate modern technology into the scouting and development departments, and integrate the R&D departments work seamlessly throughout the organization. ...
And there is a connection with Driveline, which is where Matt Daniels came from (quote from Kyle Boddy in Roger's post, who apparently worked with Pete when he was an intern). Speaking of which, Daniels' ability to communicate and translate analysis into actionable advice for pitchers was one of the traits touted when he was hired, and now Putila is noted for something similar,
Roger's article noted a number of hitting successes the Astros have developed, and hopefully Pete can help the Giants succeed in that way, as well. And lastly, I share his ending conclusion:
What is most evident with this hiring is that the organization is looking to bolster its player development to get to the level of sustainable competitiveness that has, so far, escaped them.
That's been a key focus of Zaidi, from the team of pitching experts (Daniels, Bannister, Bailey) he has hired to lead on pitching, to the hiring of Gabe Kapler, who was in charge of the Dodger's Player Development department: the improvement of the Giants Player Development department and the pipeline of players developed for the majors, as well as trades. We have not seen a lot of success so far under his leadership, and 2022 was definitely a step back, but I've been happy with the processes being developed and the personnel hired to execute on his plans.
Andy Baggarly interviewed Putila for The Athletic (subscription required for the interview and to regularly get to read Baggarly, they have great $1 per month deal going on for the holidays) and there is a lot of great info there as well. Putila noted something about what he saw as the reason for the Astro's success, which is a theme that the Giants have had since Sabean was the GM:
What do you think made the Astros upset-proof in a postseason that claimed so many of the top seeds?
I think it comes down to pitching and defense and how those two things combined.
And as I noted in my business plan (link in the side panel), two major studies by major sabermetric publications (BP and Fangrahs via THT) found that teams that do well in the playoffs had great pitching and defense.
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