I wrote this in a thread comment on TA about the possibility of trading for Soto. Many comments were about Sabean's Modus Operandi, as well, so I addressed that too. Then, as I am wont to do, I added other stuff, thoughts come at me all day... (and sorry, wasn't able to finish before the trade deadline, where Soto was traded to the Padres)
ogc thoughts
Here's my take on Farhan Zaidi, his M.O., and the idea of trading for Soto.
Zaidi Strategy Overall: Pitching and Defense
Most of all, I think people are too focused on what he's been doing up to now. One has to take into context where the Giants rebuilding process is, and a lot of the observations here, especially about utilizing journeyman players in platoon situations, is all about his strategy in navigating the rebuilding of the Giants for their next long-term sustainable competitive (i.e. has a core group of young players) era.
Let's start with how good the Giants team he was handed was. He was given an old team with no young good starters plus all their best prospects still needing many more years of developing (Webb, Bart, Ramos, Luciano, Corry, Matos, Hjelle, and others). He needed to bridge from that state, as the team prepared for the young prospects to develop and matriculate, to when their prospect become major leaguers. Hence the journeyman approach with the Wheel of Fortune volume approach with the waiver wire (I would also note the hit and miss aspect of this, for all his hits, especially Yaz, the waiver wire pickup with the most WAR in 2019 was Hanser Alberto with 3.5 bWAR, who diid that after he was DFAed by Zaidi and picked up by the Orioles, with the caveat that it ultimately was the right call, that season was a fluke, he's been about average, while Yaz has been very good).
I Don't Think He Wants Soto (at a huge price)
Because free agents and top trade targets cost a lot, and could hamper the rebuilding effort, especially blocking a deserving rising prospect. He needs Core Team Players to build around, and he don't want to pay for complementary players who will help with winning (like Cueto, Samardzija, Melancon), he needs young stars who can be a pillar he can depend on when the team is long term competitive. Thus, trading away all his young developing players would gut his rebuilding.
Not that the trade couldn't happen. We all have less info on how advanced (and weak) each prospect is. Just like I did when Sabean was GM, if they trade away a player, he likely has flaws we just weren't seeing. So if he does trade the farm for Soto, that's an indictment on the prospects traded.
But given that if I were the Nats, I would want Webb and Harrison included, I think that alone would be a deal breaker for Zaidi. Because, for a Soto, you want good proven young assets, as well as the premier prospects of that team. Webb and Harrison, plus Luciano and Matos, are probably where I would start, then you add secondary pieces like Murphy and Hjelle and Villar. But that's a lot of asset, especially good pitching assets, so I don't think Zaidi will do more than kick the tires, at best.
Pitching and Defense Matters a Lot
Because pitching is clearly a key skill Zaidi is focused on. He has three different very public hires devoted to pitching expertise and interesting philosophies (Daniels, Bannister, Bailey) but nobody I would consider the equivalent in hitting (he did have a massive roster of hitting coaches, though, but that seems more a Kapler thing). I wasn't sure with his first couple of drafts, what his philosophy was exactly, but given the last two drafts (overwhelming devoted to pitching with the key draft picks, 1-12), I think he focused on hitting initially, especially with their first pick, because college hitters generally are safe picks for finding a good player (value driven), and he needed to seed the farm with more good players, no matter the position first, just to build it up more. But now he's shifting, so that's good to see, he's preparing for the need for great pitching.
Which I focus on since the studies I've seen (albeit not that many, but supported by scouts and management cliche of "pitching and defense win") says that the most impactful way of winning in the playoffs and going deep, is to have a strong pitching staff supported by strong fielding defense. Two major studies (BP and THT/FG), using very different methodologies, came to the same conclusion, overwhelmingly: if you want to win in the playoffs, strong starting pitching matters, strong bullpens matters, strong closers matter, strong fielding matters, and you want dominating (i.e. strikeout) pitchers.
It was ridiculously stunning to see that no/few offensive metrics mattered, and when they did, they were far down the list. That's been my main complaint/worry about Zaidi, was his mix of tactics seemed to suggest that pitching wasn't all that important to him, but these drafts have me mollified. And these studies mean that hitting is hygiene: you need it, but it is not core to going deep in the playoffs, so it gets secondary priority status.
Rebuild Has a Lot of Moving Parts
Not that the low end hygiene actions like waiver wire hunting will end once the team is long term competitive, they will continue to do use journeymen, platoons, waiver wire on steroids, etc. It will get more fun for us, ideally, when all the young guys become major leaguers.
Ah, but that's the rub, eh? They don't all develop at the same rate, some don't even develop at all, stalling out at key hurdles (AA and AAA, and the dreaded AAAA designation), and others get injured or injury prone. So rebuilding will have fits of starts and stalls.
It's like trying to land a plane in the middle of a forest, there are a lot of challenges and obstacles you need to conquer, as well as coordinate all sorts of functions, in order to stick your landing and land safely. Actually, a better airplane analogy is this: it's like repairing an airplane, while the plane is flying in the air. An unfortunate injury (think Foppert and Lowry), or problems with success (think Jerome Williams and Pablo Sandoval), or stubbornness (think Belt), or just too many injuries (think Ainsworth), and your rebuild can get stalled or even ended before it began. All of these helped to stall the Giants competitiveness during the 2000's.
Trading for Soto is Simple Equation
So I don't think it has anything to do with Zaidi being out of his comfort zone, the idea of trading for Soto. I think it is a pretty simple logical statement that he has to answer: will the Giants be more competitive over the next 5-10 years with Soto or with the armada of talent that will have to be sent in trade? From what I feel about our players and prospects, I think no trade, it would cost too much to the rebuild, especially our pitching, and if done, means that the prospects given up is not as good as I thought they were. Besides which, I think other teams can easily outbid us, so it is not worth more than a thought exercise to Zaidi and his group, in my thinking.
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