It has been interesting reading people's comments about Zaidi and what he's doing, and I found that, for the most part, even for myself, the conclusions being made were all biased by what they believe the Giants should be doing. It is much like the old story of 6 blind men who grasping one part of an elephant, and each telling their impression of the impressive beast (for example, the one holding his nose thinks it is much like a snake). Analyzing his moves can be paralyzing.
I was not immune to this phenomenon myself, so I thought I would sit down and write about what we can really say about Zaidi based on the moves and decisions made this off-season, and what we can't.
[NOTE: with all the moves he's making, I felt the need to just get this out before another move happens, had to update everything regarding Stratton, for example, and had to add Kratz earlier; watch, something's happening just as I'm publishing this, after all, Bochy told the media that they'll understand soon why the rotation hasn't been named, and nothing has happened yet...]
ogc's big picture thoughts
First, Zaidi has not signed any big money free agent nor traded for any big money player. The most shelled out was his deal with Derek Holland, which strengthened the starting rotation, as well as the pitching staff. He's a good dude, and a good pitcher. He also signed Drew Pomeranz (who grew up with Matt Cain, for his Giants connection, and his wife is from the Bay Area, as well as him playing for the A's, for his Bay Area connection), but for a small amount (basically, most got $1.5M deals, though Pomeranz has performance escalators, only Holland got a lot more, but even that was a relatively small deal).
That's different from what Evans had done, as he was under orders to keep trying for the Giants to compete every season. And thus some viewed that as a sign that Zaidi is not under the same orders to compete. But if he's not under orders to compete, he just recently decided to declare that Solarte, Parra, and Vincent made the team. The first two were expected, and would not require hard decisions to be made.
But at this time, an 8-man bullpen was necessary to keep Melancon, Smith, Watson, Dyson, Moronta, Gott, Bergen, and Stratton (until he was traded), and naming Vincent means that one of the either will need to be traded or DFAed (Bye Chris, wish you well with La La Langels). And right now, it appears to be one of Gott, Bergen, and Stratton (winner!), all younger and potentially better than Vincent, but Vincent is the more reliable veteran reliever, which is one thing a lot of naysayers say that they hate about Bochy, giving the vets the benefit of the doubt.
He did not trade away any player, during the off-season as many who thought the Giants should do in a teardown rebuild. Some of these viewed this positively, because they did not feel that the Giants had anything of value to trade, and thus confirms their opinion that the Giants team was trash, and would lose over 90 games.
But this opinion does not line up with reality. The reason WAR was defined with replacement level players is because even average MLB players are valuable, and thus any player who can deliver at least 1.5 WAR is considered valuable. And 9 players provided at least that much.
In addition, with WAR being valued at around $11M per WAR, at least 22 players produced more WAR than their salary that they received, so it was not just Bumgarner who produced more value than their contract, but even the guys viewed at overpaid by some (Longoria, Belt, Crawford, Posey). McCutchen too, though he's no longer here. So there is a lot of value here, the main question is how much value is being offered back.
Recent Decisions and Implications
He has also made a number of upgrade moves as well as announced roster players, in the past week or so. First, he named Solarte, Parra, and Vincent to the 25-man roster. As noted, the first two were expected, the third not as much by fans, but was telegraphed by the beat writers by his frequent mentions.
I frankly don't understand the Vincent addition to the roster. He has a 3.62 ERA the past three seasons, which is good (113 ERA+), but moderated by the fact that he did most of that at his pitcher's park home in Seattle: 2.75 ERA in Safeco Park vs. 4.39 ERA on the road. Someone noted that SF, LA, and SD were pitchers parks, but that just makes that 4.39 ERA really stick out, as then he would be giving up a lot of runs elsewhere (like Chase Field 8.31 ERA; Nationals 6.75 ERA; Dodger Stadium - well known pitchers park but 4.70 ERA. He's been excellent in SF and SD, but given both have poor offenses, that moderates those numbers greatly. Reportedly, Zaidi park-adjusts and team-adjusts, so presumably it all works out overall for Vincent. He seems to be an addition so that he has inventory to trade off mid-season which supports the view that he's doing a soft rebuild, by competing but with an eye towards trading for the future at some point.
Moreover, this basically means that Zaidi will need to make some moves in the bullpen, as there is, at best, 8 spots (7 if they keep a 5 deep bench), and assuming Melancon, Smith, Watson, Dyson, Moronta, Gott, Bergen, and Stratton are the 8 originally thought to be in, one must go (Stratton now traded), and Moronta is the only one who has options, but unlikely to be sent down.
Given how late it is in the spring, it is unlikely the Giants are trading any valuable relievers like Smith, Watson, or Dyson for, say, a corner starting OF, as most think that they need. But really, Parra and Williamson right now are probably the bottom of the lineup, where you don't need to hit for him to be better than average; the offense can survive a bad back of the lineup, which is what most people miss when they complain about how bad the OF is. Almost every other team has their version of "bad outfield", their teams' compromise on the roster to get more of whatever it is that they need, whether offense or defense. .
He got Connor Joe (1B/3B/COF/C), from the Reds, in trade for Jordon Johnson, an interesting Giants pitching prospect before, but not so much recently, and some cash was sent to the Reds. It basically looks like he'll be replacing Pablo Sandoval on the roster (it has been noted by Baggarly via tweet that Sandoval could end up on IL - new term for DL - given his earlier physical problems early in spring), as he plays all the corner OF positions, as well the corner IF positions Sandoval played, and has caught professionally as well. They returned Drew Ferguson to the Astros in order to open up a 40-man roster spot for Joe. Joe has a .363 career OBP, and was acquired by Zaidi for the Dodgers last season, which was his best as a professional, hitting 17 HR (vs. 11 total in his career as a pro before) and .408 OBP across AA-AAA, with .935 OPS (.879 OPS AAA). 2018 looked like a breakout season for him, but the Dodgers did not put him on their 40-man.
Zaidi then got CF/OF Micheal Reed, from the Twins, in trade for John Andreoli (who he picked up on waivers, waived to the minors, which is why Twins want him, so they can stash him in the minors) and cash, with Steven Okert (who I still have hopes for) DFAed to clear space on 40-man for Reed. Reed can play CF, as well as the corners, and he has been excellent in getting on base in the minors, but did not have much power, so he could be our new Gregor Blanco, who can play all three OF positions well, plus get on base a lot, though he does not steal much anymore. Both he and Joe cannot be optioned to the minors.
He acquired C Erik Kratz, from the Brewers, in trade for CJ Hinojosa (a SS prospect who has an interesting bat, but not much power; Jose Lopez (who was picked up in waiver claim) was DFAed to open up a 40-man spot for Kratz). Kratz is not that good offensively, but is very good defensively (and apparently a good clubhouse guy) at catcher, with a high rating/ranking per BP (8th in the majors, over a win better than Posey is, making up for some of the loss of offense; FYI, Vogt was 20th in 2017, and is a much better hitter). He has just been named to the 25-man roster.
Zaidi picked up C Tom Murphy from the Rockies, catcher, off the waiver wires. Another player out of options, they DFAed RHP Merandy Gonzalez, who they picked up from waivers from the Marlins. Murphy was once a Top 100 Baseball America prospect, and was considered an offensive catching prospect (see .901 OPS in AAA last season) plus BP rated his defense to be about average, which is a nice combo. Really, Zaidi seems to be GMing like John Barr on steroids!!!
So basically Zaidi appears to have chose an old veteran guy or two over Aramis Garcia, a young prospect who did not show much in the minors (though enough for me to point him out as a prospect to watch), but was good in his September call-up and during spring training so far. Now, even if they decide to hold 3 catchers, Garcia has already been optioned to AAA, to show off that he can kill the pitching there as well as in the majors.
And if the Giants do end up holding 3 catchers, that means that Zaidi would need to make cuts either in the bullpen or on the bench (which is already projected to be short with only Reed as the backup OF, but with Belt and Solarte slated to take some innings out in LF). I just don't see that happening, other than with Joe or Sandoval being the 3rd catcher. He said he wanted to create heartburn with his 40-man cuts, and he has delivered.
But his Waiver Roulette appears to be just a volume approach to picking up interesting players and seeing if he can eventually sneak the guy through to the minors as inventory assets for trading (like he did with Andreoli, who I was interested in seeing, but just as interested in seeing Reed, or even more so, as he plays CF and had a higher OBP).
Testing Testing Za-A-Di
Hopefully he is doing this with more knowledge about how good each player is, and keeping the guys he really think can make it. And not make a trade like when Billy Beane traded for Milton Bradley, and gave up a prospect, Andre Ethier, who turned out to not only be good, but his WAR the year he was traded, was better than what Bradley produced, let alone the years of control afterward. Beane got robbed blind there, he had clearly had zero idea of what he had with Ethier, else he would not have made that trade. Hopefully Zaidi knows scouting well enough to tell the good from the bad, much like Sabean, Tidrow, and Barr did with their prospects.
With the trade of Stratton, this question now has a test case to give some clarity on this question. Stratton showed a lot of potential in 2017-18, but has now been jettisoned for an, albeit, very interesting LH fire-balling reliever, who like D-Rod, only started pitching as a pro after failing as a hitter. Stratton now gets the chance to show off that potential elsewhere.
And it's very high potential, hence why I was hesitant to get rid of him. At his best, Stratton had 5-10 game stretches of mid-2's ERA, which if extended over a season, would keep him in the low 3's, which is very good (Top 20 in majors), so the potential that Zaidi talked about in an interview (his fear of trading away someone before he knows how good he is), will get a good test here.
To be clear, I'm not saying Stratton is for sure going to be that good, I'm not that good at talent evaluation. But it's kind of like playing with a stick of dynamite, the potential is there for it to blow up in your hands, and now we have a good test case to see if Zaidi is all that or not in terms of player evaluation. You don't trade away a guy who might deliver a low 3 ERA as a starter, just to get an optionable LH reliever prospect, even if he doesn't have any options left, that would be idiotic. And it is only one case, but you don't want trading a good player away on your resume, as one of your first trades on the job.
25-man Roster Thus Far
These are the players who have roster spots so far, that has been announced or has significant MLB contracts:
- SP: Bumgarner, Holland, Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Samardzija
- RP: Melancon, Smith, Dyson, Watson, Moronta, Vincent
- C: Posey, Kratz
- IF: Belt, Panik, Longoria, Crawford, Solarte
- OF: Williamson, Duggar, Parra
The players who may or may not make it, for the final four spots:
- Michael Reed: He appears to be certain to be the 4th OF, as he is the main guy in camp who can play there, and he's already on the 40-man (though other options like Henry Ramos and Anthony Garcia, still are being mentioned by the beat writers), plus the Giants gave up someone (but given that Zaidi appears to be managing as if he is running a fantasy baseball team, picking up and dumping fringe players left and right, I don't believe, yet, that he will keep Reed just because he traded someone for him).
- Connor Joe: He appears slotted to be the second infield bench player, beating out Sandoval, as he's younger, has shown promise and improved play in the past season, and because Zaidi picked him in in LA, then now traded for him with the Reds, giving up someone (again, caveat from above, might mean nothing).
- Travis Bergen: In spite of giving up some runs today, for the first time all spring, while Gott is still unscored upon, I think he's ahead of Gott. But this is just tea leaves but impression from reading the beat writers comments.
- Trevor Gott: In any case, with it being early season, usually the long reliever is not as needed, it seems he's in over Stratton, as we have barely heard anything about him, and while his peripherals are good, his ERA is 4.60 in spring. If so, that's 4, so the following are probably on the outside looking in, unless trades are made.
- Chris Stratton: I still think he can be a very good pitcher in the majors, and that the Giants are making a mistake now that he's been traded. The Angels get to try with him now.
- Pablo Sandoval: With 8 relievers, he looks gone. Some beat speculation that his early spring pulled muscle could re-appear and he ends up on 15-day IL list.
- Tom Murphy: He is a waiver pickup, so I think Kratz still ranks ahead. Zaidi seems to be playing that game that some people do on Craig's List, trading up from a paper clip to a sports car with a series of trades. Or as I call it, Waiver Roulette. Murphy is on the hot seat for the next guy that crosses the waiver wire that catches Farhan's eyes.
- Aramis Garcia: With talk about carrying a 3rd catcher referencing him, he had some hope of making the roster, but I don't see how the Giants sacrifice a reliever or another bench spot for a 3rd catcher. Plus, he hasn't really proven that he's as good as he seemed since September, the better move is to let him start regularly in AAA in 2019, see what he can do, see if he can push his way to major leagues. Another reason to do this with Garcia is that then the Giants have a clear and easy choice should they need a catcher in the majors, Garcia can be optioned back and forth frequently, as needed. In any case, he's been sent down already, but guys have been brought back before.
Zaidi Scenarios
I find that most views of Zaidi hew to what that person is hoping for, and I'm not immune from that and the only way to confront that is to examine each view, see what supports and what doesn't. These views are skewed by the fact that I only interact with others on The Athletic and Twitter.
Team Teardown
Some feel that Zaidi is going to teardown the team, build up the farm system in order to compete many years from now, by trading off all the assets. Zaidi is trying to be competitive in 3-5 years. They are confident that Zaidi is smart, see how bad this team is, and dealing with radioactive players.
This is the most tenuous scenario, in my opinion. Nobody was sold off, which has been viewed as confirmation of their feelings that the Giants are filled with high priced, low valued players who are untradeable for even quasi-prospects. Plus, Bumgarner's not drawing much trade value interest, and thus Zaidi is smartly holding off on trading him until mid-season. They probably justify the rostering of Vincent and Kratz, over likely a younger reliever and Garcia, Pomeranz over Suarez and Stratton, Solarte over Hanson, Parra over Slater, as holding onto assets that could be flipped at mid-season.
This is not a teardown by any logic, however, thus far. Even if the team had no value (the Giants could have done what Rays did and pay off a season or two to get a good prospect back; plus as above noted, these older players earned their paycheck with WAR produced, so yes, the players are valuable), is it better to get so-so players like Vincent, Kratz, Solarte, Parra, who likely get little value back in trade, or is it better to let young players play instead, generally poorly, which would get us a high pick overall, like a Bart or Posey, Bumgarner or Lincecum?
Perhaps they look at the trades of Nunez and McCutchen getting a nice two-prospect package back, but none of those players are even at the level of Nunez, let along McCutchen, who got 3 years at $50M, as all these players were minor league signings, or in Kratz's case, he was signed by the Brewers but told that he likely would not make the team in 2019, so his return (CJ Hinojosa, who is not on the Giants Top 30 prospect list, nor did he hit all that well in 2018, other than making good contact, and showing a good eye, flopping in AFL), is probably similar to the return the Giants would get for any of these players mid-season, which is: not much.
Ready for Rebuild
These see Zaidi planning ahead for Bart to make the team in 2021 and later, and is planning for the Giants rise after Bart takes over and leads the team. They view the current roster as mostly untradeable or it is not the right time for max value (Bumgarner argument again). Hence the lack of any movement, only the signing of minor players like Solarte, Parra, Vincent, as the team waits out for all the huge unmovable contracts to expire, freeing more spending for the next dynasty team led by Bart, Ramos, Luciano.
Can't argue too much with this view, but the rostering of older players like Kratz, Solarte, Parra, and Vincent over younger players does not align with this view, and thus problematic. If we are planning on being good with Bart in 2021, would it not be better to see what Garcia, Hanson, Slater, and Gott/Bergen/Stratton could do in 2019, than to be slightly more competitive (because, really, these older players are not expected to be huge contributors to a winning team environment, they are supplemental pieces, not even complementary players like Panik and Duffy).
Especially if you want to be ready to compete in 2021 with Bart, these young players should be steady vets, if they succeed, by then, plus the Giants would get a better draft position in 2020 and 2021 struggling with young players learning to succeed, then wily vets providing a steady floor of production, pushing our draft position towards the back of the round, instead.
Really only a Reset
These (including me) see Zaidi as marching under the same orders that Sabean and then Evans marched to: be competitive each year. The team, as Zaidi noted, was .500 until late in the season, when injuries finally decimated the lineup, and when the Giants lost their last two good hitters, Posey and McCutchen, they tanked in the last month. The rotation can be the start of the next good rotation, led by Bumgarner, D-Rod, and Suarez, the bullpen is great, and the lineup can be good enough to support the pitching, offensively and especially defensively.
The problem with this view is that if Zaidi was only doing a reset ala Evans, he would have signed someone like Marwin Gonzalez, a multi-position player who plays okay to good defense across the infield and outfield, and who provides a good enough bat as well. He would rest players across the board, including SS, without losing much of a beat defensively or offensively, and perhaps even CF.
Plus, as much as he talked about being able to option a player back and forth from the minors, the 25-man roster look more and more like a roster where few can be yo-yo-ed back and forth, with only Moronta and Duggar, guys who have options but the Giants should not be wanting to be sending back to the minors, unless they run into performance problems.
Still, my view has been that the Giants have the pitching, and with most of the poorest defenders let go, the team is much better defensively, should have the defense, and the offense, while not great, was good enough so that with the pitching, they were over .500 significantly for three months. Pomeranz is a great addition, because if he can return to prior greatness, he would bolster the rotation, and if not, Suarez should be ready to jump back in later, pushing out the poor performer. And the relievers added are pretty good too. And the offense could be better, with health, and with all the Waiver Roulette that Zaidi has been doing, the depth is now visible, whereas before, the Giants relied more on luck, it seems (Blanco saved their butts often, early on, but nobody could replace Crawford or Belt in the second half of 2018).
So Who's Right? Reply Hazy, Cannot Predict Now
I guess the point I've been missing so far is that nobody is perfectly one thing or another, it often depends on the circumstance. For example, Zaidi spoke of improving the team defense, particularly corner OF. And he has, removing a number of the players who were poor (per DRS), except for Sandoval and Hanson, and both are on the bubble right now, so they could soon be gone too, within days, with the addition of Solarte and now Joe. Or who knows, maybe he's working a trade with the Dodgers to hold onto Joe, maybe this is all a high wire act, with him bouncing from one side to the other side, keeping balance.
So I guess what I'm saying is that it's way too soon to know what Zaidi is trying to do. That people, including me, has been using confirmation bias to say that Zaidi shares our personal view of the Giants. We probably won't know by the new trade deadline, either, because if there are no trades for young prospects, they would shrug their shoulders and say that this is because nobody on the team is worth anything. But if there is a ton of trades for prospects, then clearly he is either tearing down the team or attempting a rebuild.
But what if the team is competing, as some of us feel? Then a sign that it is a reset if he goes out and make some trades to bolster the team. But it could also be a teardown/rebuild in those minds because if there are not any significant prospects traded, they would view him as being opportunistic, that the team was lucky to be good, so he took advantage of that circumstance to compete, but would continue the rebuild/teardown in the off-season and future seasons.
It's like a game of Clue, where certain suspected items are clearly possible, but over time, move by move, you determine which do not make sense, and you close in on the right answer. The Clue to Zaidi's M.O. will clarify with some moves, but get murky with a lot of his moves, since he makes so many minor moves, it is hard to move beyond the noise of it all. It will take time, at least one season, and perhaps two, before it gets clear which drummer Zaidi is listening to.
What We Do Know
What I do feel clear about is that Zaidi has stated that he feels that a defense (pitching and fielding) oriented team is best for winning in our park, as he noted the need to improve the defense to support the low scoring environment of the park. His moves so far has improved pitching and fielding, overall, with hardly any moves to improve the offense, other than to pursue Harper. And that is the formula that Sabean and gang has been trying to implement since the early 2000's, and succeeded with during their dynasty.
Whether it is done via teardown, rebuild, or reset, it will get clearer over his 5 year contract what he's all about, but any speculation on what he's doing right now is just that, speculation, nobody but he and his inner team knows. We only know the moves he has made, and, as I noted long before regarding Sabean, not every move represents his thoughts and philosophies, sometimes you just have to make a move because you need to fill that position, because the perfect player you want is not always available, so compromise happens all the time.
For now, I'm just glad that he's allowing the team to compete with what they got. I like what the Giants have but am unsure exactly how good they will be. I think .500 is probable, that a losing season is not very likely (barring massive injuries across the 14 - 8/5/1 - again), and that playoff contention would not surprise me.
And with Opening Day coming soon, I'm with everybody else: Play Ball already!!!
Go Giants!
Another well thought-out, informative piece - thanks!
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