Your 2018 Giants: You Say You Want a Rebuild

Good morning, ah!  There are a lot of unhappy Giants fans today, who would rather cry instead, singing, "I'm down, I'm really down, how can I laugh, when I know I'm down?" Don't cry baby cry, or twist and shout, you can't do that, because I got a feeling.  My thoughts.

ogc big picture thoughts

Let It Be

The vast majority of Giants fans say that they want a rebuild, at least based on what I see on Twitter and on The Athletic.  The thing is, Zaidi refused to define what he's going to do, it's not a rebuild, it's not a reset, and he talked about being competitive and getting better all the time, move by move.  So basically, he's rebuilding, piece by piece, but it's not a reset, because he didn't acquire any big free agent (or even a relatively minor one, like Marwin Gonzalez, who would have been very useful right now), or a rebuild, because he hasn't traded vets for prospects.  He tried for the homerun with Harper, but instead, he's trying to get some runs (and prospects) thrown in, instead.  He has basically delivered on what he has said, so it's not like he didn't tell us he was going to do something like this.

Long and Winding Road

And isn't this what many of us wanted, particularly those who wanted a rebuild:  the Giants to play some interesting prospects in the OF?  Maybe it's not the interesting prospects that you wanted, but one cannot deny that both Connor Joe and Michael Reed has had very interesting minor league performances.  For those wanting rebuilds, it's a long and winding road to get back to contention, built on testing out and finding young contributors who can help the core, or join the core.

Isn't it more important that Zaidi started rebuilding the outfield with some interesting prospects, I was surprised that prospects with that high an OBP were available, much like I was surprised when Gregor Blanco was available, he's not a core type of player, but was a very good complementary piece.  And this is how Zaidi found guys like Taylor (whose swing mechanics were also modified by the Dodgers, much like Joe was too) and Muncy (who also had a slow start in the majors before figuring things out greatly).

You Can't Do That

And didn't we go through this all during the past 10 years, dealing with a poor offense?  People are acting like we just came out of the Bonds era, but this is not our first time in this particular rodeo.  Why are people still not understanding that low offense teams can win?

How about noticing that their Runs Allowed is now 8 runs in 3 games, or 2.67 RS average.   The team will win a lot of games over time, if they can maintain a low average for an extended period of time, even with an anemic offense, just like they did before.  Scoring runs is not as important in the overall scheme of things, as preventing runs, which the Dynasty showed.

All Things Must Pass

And for those who thought the team is bad, anyway, isn't this what you wanted?  You all believe that the Core is done, their time is gone, and it's better to move on.  So isn't it better this way, let the team wobble and fail, and get a great draft pick in 2020? 

This outfield is woefully inexperienced, and probably undermanned, though I expect to see Belt play a lot more out there.  Plus, 13 pitchers is causing Bochy to use up the bench in 9 innings (only 4 bench players), so we'll be seeing Bumgarner pinch-hitting a lot this season.  The Giants aren't going to win a lot of extra inning games if there's no bench available at that point.  And Longoria's injury illustrates the great danger to having such a short bench, with one guy not available, the bench is essentially down to 2, because the backup catcher normally does not get to play, just in case.

Maxwell's Silver Hammer

And for those who want to see a competitive team, again, what team were you watching for the past ten years?  We have seen plenty of sad outfields before, as our parade of young prospects, from Ellison, to Lewis, to Bowker, to Schierholtz, to Parker, plus guys like Jason Maxwell, trying to find a place in our outfield.  And as many Sabean Naysayers like to point out, when was the last time the Giants developed a good OF?  (I believe Duggar will shut up that last line of defense on their part, though I've seen some circle back to starting pitching; unfortunately, their hate appears to be never ending)

And as long as Posey, Belt, Panik, Longoria, and Crawford hit, plus hopefully Duggar leading off well, who we got batting 7th and 8th won't matter too much, really, in the grand scheme of things (which is where Joe and Reed should be hitting, but that's another question).  And as I noted the other day, both Joe and Reed project to be about as good as any other teams' 8th place hitter, so it's not like they are projected to hit like Kelby.  They are not stars, but they can be complementary pieces, give them a chance.

I Feel Fine

I'm happy because I think that this team could be competitive because of the pitching and fielding. I thought that they'll be able to do that with the existing talent, as long as we re-signed Holland, and I thought that the signing of Pomeranz was a great low risk/high reward potential, that could do a lot for the Giants competitiveness (and we haven't even seen him pitch yet).  And the new young guys look interesting, so I'm excited about them, especially Joe, since he's Asian, I rarely get to root for one. 

With a Little Help From My Friends

Like I noted, had these two done these things in the Giants minors, people would be happy.  Let's take a look at Chris Shaw (who I like, just using recent example), who many people were unhappy that he wasn't playing more last season, and compare him with Joe and Reed. His high OPS was .901, and in Advanced A-ball.  Highest OBP was .357, also in Advanced A-ball (hitters league).  His batting line in 2018 in AAA (age 24) was .259/.308/.505/.813. 

The two new hitters were better hitters in AAA last season, and has been doing doing well with OBP their whole careers.  Joe has a career MiLB OBP of .363 (higher than Shaw's high), and in 2018 in AAA (age 25) hit 294/.385/.494/.879, and Reed has a career MiLB OBP of .382 (even higher), and in 2018 in AAA (age 25) hit .363/.459/.539/.997, both having comparable SLG as Shaw.  It is not like they didn't perform better than Shaw in 2018 at the AAA level, or not hit well coming up the ladder, plus Joe made swing mechanics changes with LA last season, explaining his boost in power.

I'm glad to see both get an extended tryout with the Giants here in the early going.  Zaidi has milked the waiver wire and guys on the edge (via trades) to find interesting prospects who, for whatever reasons, hadn't been given a chance.  That's a way to find players that other teams hadn't given an opportunity yet, in spite of their good minor league performances, getting help from other team's player development. 

I'm Just Happy Just to Dance With You

So it seems like I'll get to see this competitive scenario unfold. But who knows, mid-season, the rebuild fans might be happy, if he trades off a bunch of vets for prospects (I don't think so, as I think Zaidi was told to do the same thing Sabean had to do for 20 years, reset every season to be competitive, but right now, we don't know what he'll do or what he's doing).  I'm just excited for another season of Giants baseball!

And ultimately, this is just the first series of the season!  This is just a day in a life!  Don't be the fool on the hill.  I know you all went through the same things I did, offense is not the first priority for the Dynasty Giants.  Thank god, because that's what won us the 3 in 5.

It Won't Be Long

Do you wanna know a secret?  It's been pitching and fielding defense that made the Giants Dynasty.  And that's what will get us into the next period of competitiveness, run prevention.  Which is something Zaidi has said in interviews.  And they have a lot of good pieces, there was young green shoots of youth, breaking the ground, joining the team last season, and more this season, so it won't be long before they are competitive again, I believe.

Isn't that bullpen beautiful?  And the starting pitching has been pretty good so far too, though way too soon to say anything other than that.  But D-Rod did well, maybe he won't regress as much as the experts thought.  And I think Duggar will be a key linchpin to making the team competitive in 2019, by anchoring the leadoff spot and the outfield defense.  I'm looking forward to seeing what this team can do.  Here comes the sun!