Tanaka Blast: NPB and MLB

Oh, how the worm turns.  After all the twists and turns with the potential posting of Masahiro Tanaka, the agreement had finally been settled - $20M max, if multiple max bids, then all can negotiate but only winner pays, else high bid gets to solely negotiate - and his Japanese team, after intimating that they might not post him and instead give him an $8M contract, instead posted him.  I think teams have about a month to get their bid in.


The Hardball Times Annual has a nice analysis of the NPB free agents who have come over to the MLB.   FYI, not one of the hitters had a better wRC+ in the MLB than the NPB, on average it dropped by around 20, from above average 115 to below average 96.

Of course, the one that matters here is the pitchers chart.  10 pitchers did worse in the MLB than they did in the NPB, using FIP- as the measuring stick.  On average dropped from 90 to 98, from good to slightly above average.  Two were roughly the same.  One was slightly better (Hiroki Kuroda, from 95 NPB to 90 MLB).  Only Takashi Saito was much better.

Still, Tanaka was historically good, with a 70 FIP-.  To compare, Yu Darvish was slightly better in similar IP, 69 FIP-.  And Dice-K was around 78 FIP-.  However, while Dice-K ended up roughly average at 99 FIP- MLB, Darvish is around 76 FIP- MLB.  Of course the big difference is that Darvish is still early in his MLB career, while Dice-K has gone through the ups and downs of his MLB career.

Still again, Tanaka is only 25 YO, and both Dice-K and Darvish came in at younger as well, Darvish at 25 YO too.  So he still has that younger upside relative to age than most any other had, as most were on the other side of 30 when they entered the MLB.   But while Dice-K had a few good seasons then injuries ruined his career, Darvish is still going strong, and is still just 27 YO for next season, so who knows how his contract will look long term, Dice-K looked good early on too.

I ran across this blog post comparing Tanaka with Dice-K and Darvish.  It is generally positive about Tanaka, particularly given his stature and usage of the sinker is very similar to Kuroda, who has had a good history of performance in the MLB.  A difference for Darvish is that he has the classic build of a power pitcher, so he's not a good comp with Tanaka.

Overall, I think Tanaka would be a good addition, just do a 6-man rotation to save the arms.  Go Giants!