Sunday, September 05, 2010

Your 2010 Giants are 76-61: Take Care of Business, Beat AZ

Wow, now that's MLB baseball:  San Diego is now on a 10 game losing streak as the avalanche continues down the mountain side, and the Giants are now only 1 game back of them.  Once again, the D-gers were on the losing end in a series against a playoff contender, Unfortunately, Colorado has been on a tear themselves (and they were the ones who swept the 'Dres), and are only 3.5 games behind the Giants.  It's now a three team battle for the NL West, instead of a one team runaway.

Now, on to the second portion of this critical road trip:  paying back the D-backs for what they did to us in SF the other week.  But it won't be easy because they will be facing the two good D-backs starters who shut us down last time:  Enright and Hudson.  And Kennedy has been doing well too, so the Giants will be facing their three best starters.  It will be a tough series, the Giants cannot let up, they must step up again.

Game 1:  Ian Kennedy vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:
Giants:  The 21-year-old rookie pitched well enough to win in his last outing, yielding one run in six innings before the Giants emerged with a 5-2 victory over Colorado. Bumgarner has thrived on the road, where he has posted a 5-2 record with a 2.62 ERA.
D-backs:  Kennedy enters this start on a roll. He has won his last two starts and has won his last three decisions. He had probably his finest outing of the year Aug. 26 at PETCO Park, when he tossed seven shutout innings and fanned 12.
As I noted in the PQS analysis, Bumgarner has not been his early dominant self for a long while now.  That's probably because he's gone above his prior seasonal high in innings pitched and is experiencing some dead arm.  However, despite being only 21, he is mature beyond his years and appear able to pitch well even when he doesn't have his best stuff.

Still, the game will be tough because Kennedy has been doing well in recent starts, as noted above.  But, like Bumgarner, he will be passing up his high in IP in this start, and that was achieved 3 seasons ago, before he had his surgery in 2008 and recovery in 2009.  He only has a 3.95 ERA at home, and worse on the road, amazingly, given how much a hitter's park Arizona plays in.  A BABIP of .284 suggests that he's been very lucky so far, but he has a great K/BB ratio (over 3), so I would have to say that he has made his own luck.  And he has pitched well in two starts against SF in Arizona so far, so this will be a tough game.

I would have to lean towards Arizona in this one, Kennedy has done well this season, done even better against the Giants, and Bumgarner has not been doing it in his starts, his PQS scores have been low for a while now.  He will have to come up big in this start in order for the Giants to have an even chance of winning.


Game 2:  Barry Enright vs. Lincecum

Giants:  Lincecum put his horrid August behind him in his first September start as he outdueled Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez in a 2-1 Giants victory. Lincecum worked eight innings in that gem last Wednesday, yielding five hits and striking out nine.
D-backs:  Enright has made 12 starts since being called up from Double-A and has yet to give up more than three runs or go fewer than five innings. He also faced Tim Lincecum on Aug. 27 and got the win thanks to seven shutout innings.
Lincecum appears to be back with his last start.  As one can see in the PQS scores, he actually was pitching OK, just suffering from bad luck, after the two particularly bad starts.  I would say that the pressure of the pennant chase was getting to him and he started over thinking his pitches, but finally got over that in his last start and put it all together.

He will have to do it again for the Giants to have any chance of winning, because Enright has been very good since the D-backs brought him up.  And it does not appear to be a huge fluke, he has done well in the minors, but took things up another step this season.  Lincecum has had one bad start and one good one against Arizona, but after that last start, I will have to call it even.

Game 3:  Dan Hudson vs. Zito

Giants:  Zito ended the Giants' run of four consecutive quality starts when he lost to the Dodgers, 4-2, on Friday. Desperate for offense, manager Bruce Bochy lifted Zito for a pinch-hitter after four innings.
D-backs:  Hudson deserved a better fate in his last start against the Astros, when he left with a lead only to have the bullpen give it up. He faced the Giants on Aug. 28 at AT&T Park and allowed two runs over seven innings in an 11-3 win.
Does not look good for Giants.  Zito has been horrible for a while now, undoing the good he did earlier in the season.  It appears that he's overthinking pitches again, thinking he's the vet, he needs to lead the way, blah, blah, blah.  He needs to stop caring again, and maybe he'll regain his old form, he does not seem to be far, looking at his past games, but there is always one critical part that he fails on closing down and ends up giving up a lot of runs.  It also doesn't help that he has a 6.00 ERA in Arizona for his career.

Hudson has had a little good luck (BABIP .289) but appears to be the real deal, his peripherall numbers in the majors are not that far off from what he did in the minors, though his ERA should start regressing at some point, but we just don't know when.  Looks like Arizona will get this one too.

Giants Thoughts

As lovely it was to win the series against the D-gers, the Giants will again have to step up against Arizona if they hope to win the series.  Heck, the way it is lined up now, it would not be out of the realm of reality that they could get swept.

We need the starting pitchers to step up again and pitch well.  So far, only Zito has not answered the call yet, and if we go into his start needing to win, I am afraid he will come up short again.  He is not a gamer who plays the same no matter what, he needs to not care and pitch like he don't care, and he's suddenly caring again.  It took him a while to learn how not to do that during the regular season, but how long will it take him during the pennant chase?

But it is not impossible to win the series.  Bumgarner had a nice game in his last start, and if he can do it again, we have a good chance of beating Kennedy, it is not like he has shut the Giants down totally.  And the Giants lineup has been doing a good job of getting enough pitches to get into the bullpen, where things have been turning for them, more times than not.  And when Lincecum is at his best, he'll take down Enright, who has been good but not dominant good like Lincecum is when he is on.  And if they are able to take those two games, maybe Zito will relax enough to do well enough to beat Hudson.

The offense, people like to complain about it, but average offenses tend to not do as well against the best pitchers but is OK on beating up the lousier ones.  Sometimes you have to tip your hat off to them.  But they have done well enough against top pitching this season, so it is not like they are shut down each and every time, but just that when they do get shut down, people point and moan, forgetting the times where the offense did take down the other team's ace.

As I noted last time, I think as Posey and Sandoval goes, the offense will go.  Huff has been slumping, Burrell to a certain extent too, but the team has been picked up by a suddenly rejuvenated Uribe, who had been slumping big time until the past two games.  I think that the offensive heroes will vary like this, from series to series, as the season winds down, with Posey and Sandoval in the mix as important contributors too.

Only one game back, the Giants need to hold their ground in the Arizona series, they cannot afford to lose any games back to SD before facing them in 4 games.  Winning the series is tough enough, but needing to sweep is that much harder, even with their 10 game losing streak.  SD will face the slumping D-gers, who, as I noted, has not won a series against a pennant contender since the All-Star break, so it would be hard to bet that SD won't win at least 2 of 3, slump or no slump.  It would be great if LA won, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Still, this is plenty close enough that anything can happen in the closing weeks.  There could well indeed be magic inside.  There could also be D-Rox running past us as well.  But one team at a time.

Go Giants!

1 comment:

  1. You nailed just what I was thinking about Lincecum (and Zito)- I read something a while ago about Zito where he said the same thing, the pressure of being the ace. Lincecum's human: okay, here he is, he made it. Big bucks, Cy Young awards, best pitcher on a contending team. Oh shit. Time for his maturity to kick in. And Zito, he's very good when he does what he does well, but he has to remember he's not the same pitcher he was - he may, in fact, be better, but he needs to trust that. If we get that from those two guys, there's no stopping the Giants (though the 5th starter may be a concern). If not... I worry about the Rockies. God knows coming back from being "out of it" they're well-experienced at.

    The wild card (not that one)is that the Padres are regressing to their mean, which had to happen sometime - but where is that mean? They look dead in the water, but it's hard to say. The series with them is going to be a big one. Sure as hell is down-the-stretch time.

    ReplyDelete

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