Monday, June 14, 2010

Your 2010 Giants are 35-27: Double Sweeper? Pecking at the Orioles

The Giants return the favor of a home sweep against the A's and it wasn't really close for the most part.  That sweep (and the hitters they have added in Posey and Burrell) appears to have turned the club around and they have been on a hot streak ever since.  They are now 13-5 since that Oakland series, scoring 4 or more runs 13 times.  Now they face the woesome Orioles.

Things for the Black and Orange are in a tailspin.  After firing their opening day manager, Trembley, their replacement manager, Juan Samuel, is 2-7   They have lost 15 of their last 17 (which means that they were on a 10 game losing streak when Trembley was fired) and 0-10-1 in their past 11 series.

The Orioles version of Buster Posey, Matt Weiters, is till not figuring out major league pitchers.  In fact, after giving hope that he finally broke out with a sizzling last two weeks in September, he has, if anything, regressed this season offensively.  His OPS is currently at .629.  This just goes to show that you never know what you got with your top prospects, some just struggle, no matter what the experts say or how well they hit previously in the minors.

And that's on top of other problems.  Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold regressed this season as well, plus Brian Matusz, after a hot start to 2010, has struggled since.  They just brought up another top prospect, Jake Arrieta, and appears to be preparing everyone by throwing them into the fire.  Of course, that would have been a better idea the past two seasons, when Strasburg and then Harper were the top picks in the draft, though reportedly the top guy for next year's draft is so good that if he and Harper were in the same draft, the other guy would be first.

Game 1:  Chris Tillman vs. Jonathan Sanchez

MLB Notes:

Orioles: The 22-year-old righty bounced back from a bad outing against the Red Sox with his first quality start of the season on Wednesday against the Yankees. He pitched six innings and gave up two earned runs on eight hits while striking out one. In 15 career starts since his Major League debut on July 29, 2009, Tillman has never faced the Giants.
Giants: Sanchez took the loss in his last outing against Cincinnati, giving up three runs on seven hits in five innings. It was the third straight outing in which Sanchez failed to pitch longer than 6 1/3 innings, although he had won his previous two starts. Sanchez has never faced the Orioles, but is 3-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 Interleague appearances (seven starts).

If you just read the text above, you might think that Tillman will put up a tough fight for the Giants.  But in 3 starts, 13.0 IP, he has given up 19 hits and 7 walks and struck out only 6 batters in total.  His last start is rated a 2 PQS, but not that far away from a disaster start, one less out - and 8 hits and 3 walks in 6 IP, that was possible.  

Meanwhile, Sanchez had a tough time in Cincy, which is not surprising, as most pitcher have problems there, that park is a homer-haven hitting park.  And despite the point about his lack of IP, his PQS sequence was 3, 5, 3 for those three games, he was not that far from making the other two starts into DOM 4 starts.  This should be a Giants victory.

Game 2:  Jake Arrieta vs. Joe Martinez

MLB Notes:

Orioles: If not for a certain Washington Nationals pitcher, the 24-year-old righty's Major League debut Thursday might be the best of any rookie this season. Facing the defending World Series champion Yankees, Arrieta pitched six innings of three-run ball, yielding four hits and four walks while striking out six batters. The signature moment of his start came in the sixth inning of a tie game when he fanned Marcus Thames with the bases loaded.
Giants: Right-hander Todd Wellemeyer, who has filled this slot for the Giants all season, was placed on the 15-day disabled list Friday with a right quadriceps strain. As of Friday, Giants manager Bruce Bochy was undecided on who will get this start, but the picture should become clearer in the coming days.

Not sure why they didn't update this, but it has been announced on all the local papers that Joe Martinez should be getting this start, as he is on the team right now and ready to go, though if Sanchez has a short start today, Martinez apparently would pitch and then the call would go to Bumgarner.  Arrieta appears to have brought his A-game to the majors, pitching a 4-DOM start in his first start and against the Yankees great offense, so whoever he faces will have to bring their A-game in order to beat him.  Looks like a Giants loss here unless Martinez can bring it, which is possible as he had a nice start in his last start in the minors.

Game 3:  Jeremy Guthrie vs. Tim Lincecum

MLB Notes:

Orioles: Despite pitching well against the Mets on Friday, the righty failed to pick up a quality start for just the fourth time this season. He went seven innings but gave up four runs, including three on a homer by his former teammate at Stanford, Chris Carter. Guthrie is having a nice bounce-back year after leading the American League with 17 losses to go with a 5.04 ERA in 2009. He has never faced the Giants.
Giants: He's back. In his last outing against Oakland, Lincecum rebounded from his recent slide by allowing two runs on seven hits in eight innings. He also struck out seven, but perhaps even more impressive was that Lincecum walked just one batter. Lincecum has never faced Baltimore, but has a career record of 3-2 and 3.91 ERA in eight Interleague starts.


Guthrie has been the Orioles' ace for four seasons now, so I guess it is appropriate that he faces the Giants ace for the past three seasons, Tim Lincecum.

Funny how the saber view is different.  Guthrie has had 7 DOM starts in his 13 starts (54%, which is very good), whereas by the old quality start standard, they say he had 9 quality starts.  They also called the last start a non-quality start, but by PQS rating, it was his first 5-DOM start of the season.  After struggling for the most part in a 8 start stretch in the middle, he has put together two good DOM starts, even if he did give up 4 runs in his last start.

Should be a battle.  Both pitchers have come off arguably one of their best starts of the season.  But as good as Guthrie has been in his career, Lincecum has been that much better.  It is as many Giants fans feel:  any start that Lincecum pitches is a "win day" in the minds of the fans, and it is hard to combat that history of performance and results.  Guthrie will need to bring his A-game, but perhaps Huff can pass on something that Guthrie struggles with to the other hitters, he played almost three seasons there, he must know Guthrie pretty well.

Giants Thoughts

The offense has been on fire for a while now.  First Posey and then Burrell, plus Torres, Sanchez, Huff, and Uribe have been hitting well for us during that stretch.  Even Molina appears to be finally coming out of his hitting funk, as he is nearing full recovery from that foul tip injury (why must players play through injuries if they aren't hitting?).  Both Schierholtz and Ishikawa have been great off the bench (plus Bowker previously; he's hot in AAA again since being sent down).

The key point in all this is that Aaron Rowand has been officially benched to allow all this wonderfulness to happen.  He has not been hitting, and for about a month, and Bochy sat him on the bench in order to play the other players who have been producing, including Torres.  Hopefully that will put in another nail into the coffin, Bochy isn't tied to vets, he is tied to production, and if neither the young guy or the old vet is producing, you go with the vet, he has the history.  But if he's tearing it up like Torres, well, you sit ol' vet Rowand down.

Now, I'm not saying that Rowand will be sitting for the whole season.  I suspect that he injured himself again and need the rest to heal himself.  Luckily, we now have the players available who can allow us to sit him down and heal without killing the offense by letting him play through it.  I think Schierholtz will also see significant start time again as well, it will depend on who is hitting and who is not.

But now we seem to have a nice mix of players who, while they won't be hitting all the time, can help carry the team for a while when the starters start to drag for whatever reason.  And our pitching staff is good enough overall to carry the team when the offense is slacking a little (but not a lot as when Rowand, Molina, and Schierholtz all went cold at the same time, probably due to injury, in May).  And the defense has been better than advertised, particularly for the guys brought in for their bats, like Huff, Burrell, and Uribe.

This series should be a gimme since the Orioles have been struggling.  The Giants should win the series.  But we are facing two of their three best pitchers right now in Arrieta and Guthrie, and Tillman is not that bad himself.  So one mistake by one of our guys could cost us the game, so you never know.  But we should get the series.

1 comment:

  1. Rowand's injury is an extreme case of suckitude.

    ReplyDelete

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