I was just here thinking about the Giants. They have been playing OK lately, to my mind. Not playoff level, but kind of like the Giants I grew up with: Meh with a bit of hope and a dash of "OMG are you f-ing kidding me?" Of course, I want a good draft pick, and meh might ruin that dream, so it got me thinking about what the draft possibilities are, even though, with so many games, still many ways it can go, many different scenarios. Still, interesting to ponder.
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Sunday, August 06, 2017
2017 Giants: July PQS
This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of July 2017, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 (wow, 12th year of this!) and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
Saturday, July 22, 2017
Your 2017 Giants (maybe): El Gordo Sandoval Rotund to the Giants
As all the whispers and tweets have intimated, Pablo Sandoval has signed with the Giants on a minor league contract, after being dumped by the Red Sox, with one of the largest owed amounts left on a contract ever. He will start off with San Jose to DH one game, then head over to AAA Sacramento to play 3B and DH as the Giants try to figure out what he has left.
The reports are that he is now healthy and slimmer (as always, it's all relate for him), and he was contrite in his return, apologizing to anyone and everyone in Giants Nation, though that last ball of the 2014 World Series apparently is not returning rightfully to the Giants (the rumor is that he sold the ball off).
ogc thoughts
Personally, I would not have pursued this. Been there, done that. And words have been said, words that apologies won't really salve and didn't for me. Worse, the ball was not returned, he dissed the franchise and all the fans by reportedly selling it off to someone (perhaps a Royal's fan who burned it; who knows? But he was pretty angry about the Giants back then, so I can see that happening).
That said, I am personally OK about his return, and don't think it's the bad move that some in the media and the fans have painted it. Just because Gillaspie is younger does not mean that he's a better player than Sandoval. Plus Nunez is probably traded, Hwang just got sent back down to AAA because he just hasn't adjusted to playing off the bench and spot starting, Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo are both injured by HBP, leaving only backups like Calixte and Tomlinson to play 3B. Sandoval could be the replacement without hurting development if he shows anything in the minors.
And, yeah, it don't look good as far as PR goes to invite back with open arms a player who dissed the Giants so badly that not only the bridge is burned but so is the rest of the road back to the Giants. But this is a no-lose situation for the Giants.
If he fails, he stays in the minors, don't cost us a 40-man prospect, nor that much money. Only their dignity takes a hit.
If he plays well enough that the Giants could bring him up, he probably is only coming up if Nunez is gone, and a roster spot is then opened up on the 40-man, as he won't get us a close or great prospect, just an intriguing prospect with a few years to go, like we gave up when we traded for him. He's not coming up unless he's starting, and I can't see the Giants dumping an interesting prospect for nothing if he's not starting.
If he starts for the Giants, and then fails or is just passable, that just makes a bad season worse. That's fine with me, I want to get as good a draft pick next season as possible, a Top 3 ideally, a Top 5 appears to be likely, at worse a Top 10 pick (though that would disappoint me greatly, at this point, I really want a Top 3 pick).
If he starts for the Giants and hits like he used to hit for us, that's found money, and hopefully the Giants can sign him for the next season. If he can keep his weight down and hit the way he can hit, he's worth the money we would have to pay him, which would not be much for 2018 and maybe 2019 too because of how bad he was with Boston. Other teams will either think that he's only good with the Giants or that he was only lucky, and not bother to try signing him on the cheap for 2018. He'll have to prove he's back over a year to get other teams to take strong interest in signing him up for bigger money than the vet minimum, and that pushes it out to at least 2019.
And at this point, I'm only worried about 2018, and there is not a lot that says that 2018 will be that much better than 2017 right now, we need a lot to go good for us to have sufficient hope that 2018 is better. There are a lot of "ifs" involved with us competing for the playoffs in 2018.
Summing up, having a Sandoval who can hit like he did before is a great value to have on our team for 2018, as he won't cost much but would contribute a lot. Having a Sandoval who hit like he did for the Red Sox is a great value to have for getting our team that Top 3 2018 Draft pick.
I understand how some fans can be so passionate about this. But being a GM requires decision makers to be like investors, very dispassionate about decision making. And if one is focused on what makes the Giants better in 2018, then the move makes sense, as it is a no-lose situation, no matter what Sandoval does.
I personally would not have signed him (and that's the emotional side of me), and I will admit that I was going to write a post stating, "No Mas, Por Favor". But now that he's here, I can see the various benefits of having him around (dispassionate side), I won't let my emotions blind me any further as to the merits of the situation. I know that I'm not always right about the Giants moves.
And this is probably the right move for the Giants, given all the benefits I listed above, and I can live with the decision without making a hissy fit, as some have done (particularly one media type who seems to love to take digs at the Giants all the time, most probably because he's followed the A's for so many decades, it is like he's on their payroll; or maybe it's the Stockholm Syndrome). It will certainly be more interesting to follow than how the team has been playing this season.
The reports are that he is now healthy and slimmer (as always, it's all relate for him), and he was contrite in his return, apologizing to anyone and everyone in Giants Nation, though that last ball of the 2014 World Series apparently is not returning rightfully to the Giants (the rumor is that he sold the ball off).
ogc thoughts
Personally, I would not have pursued this. Been there, done that. And words have been said, words that apologies won't really salve and didn't for me. Worse, the ball was not returned, he dissed the franchise and all the fans by reportedly selling it off to someone (perhaps a Royal's fan who burned it; who knows? But he was pretty angry about the Giants back then, so I can see that happening).
That said, I am personally OK about his return, and don't think it's the bad move that some in the media and the fans have painted it. Just because Gillaspie is younger does not mean that he's a better player than Sandoval. Plus Nunez is probably traded, Hwang just got sent back down to AAA because he just hasn't adjusted to playing off the bench and spot starting, Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo are both injured by HBP, leaving only backups like Calixte and Tomlinson to play 3B. Sandoval could be the replacement without hurting development if he shows anything in the minors.
And, yeah, it don't look good as far as PR goes to invite back with open arms a player who dissed the Giants so badly that not only the bridge is burned but so is the rest of the road back to the Giants. But this is a no-lose situation for the Giants.
If he fails, he stays in the minors, don't cost us a 40-man prospect, nor that much money. Only their dignity takes a hit.
If he plays well enough that the Giants could bring him up, he probably is only coming up if Nunez is gone, and a roster spot is then opened up on the 40-man, as he won't get us a close or great prospect, just an intriguing prospect with a few years to go, like we gave up when we traded for him. He's not coming up unless he's starting, and I can't see the Giants dumping an interesting prospect for nothing if he's not starting.
If he starts for the Giants, and then fails or is just passable, that just makes a bad season worse. That's fine with me, I want to get as good a draft pick next season as possible, a Top 3 ideally, a Top 5 appears to be likely, at worse a Top 10 pick (though that would disappoint me greatly, at this point, I really want a Top 3 pick).
If he starts for the Giants and hits like he used to hit for us, that's found money, and hopefully the Giants can sign him for the next season. If he can keep his weight down and hit the way he can hit, he's worth the money we would have to pay him, which would not be much for 2018 and maybe 2019 too because of how bad he was with Boston. Other teams will either think that he's only good with the Giants or that he was only lucky, and not bother to try signing him on the cheap for 2018. He'll have to prove he's back over a year to get other teams to take strong interest in signing him up for bigger money than the vet minimum, and that pushes it out to at least 2019.
And at this point, I'm only worried about 2018, and there is not a lot that says that 2018 will be that much better than 2017 right now, we need a lot to go good for us to have sufficient hope that 2018 is better. There are a lot of "ifs" involved with us competing for the playoffs in 2018.
Summing up, having a Sandoval who can hit like he did before is a great value to have on our team for 2018, as he won't cost much but would contribute a lot. Having a Sandoval who hit like he did for the Red Sox is a great value to have for getting our team that Top 3 2018 Draft pick.
I understand how some fans can be so passionate about this. But being a GM requires decision makers to be like investors, very dispassionate about decision making. And if one is focused on what makes the Giants better in 2018, then the move makes sense, as it is a no-lose situation, no matter what Sandoval does.
I personally would not have signed him (and that's the emotional side of me), and I will admit that I was going to write a post stating, "No Mas, Por Favor". But now that he's here, I can see the various benefits of having him around (dispassionate side), I won't let my emotions blind me any further as to the merits of the situation. I know that I'm not always right about the Giants moves.
And this is probably the right move for the Giants, given all the benefits I listed above, and I can live with the decision without making a hissy fit, as some have done (particularly one media type who seems to love to take digs at the Giants all the time, most probably because he's followed the A's for so many decades, it is like he's on their payroll; or maybe it's the Stockholm Syndrome). It will certainly be more interesting to follow than how the team has been playing this season.
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