Your 2019 Giants: Mac Attack is Back

While it's not official, Alex Pavlovic has tweeted that Mac is returning to the majors today.  No news at this moment what corresponding moves there are, but clearly Gerber and his mass of strikeouts will be going down, to clear a spot on the 25-man roster.

For the 40-man, I thought maybe they might DFA Gerber, since his poor batting line for us is almost a mirror image with his short Tigers stint, but Jeff Young had some other good options for the 60-day IL, Ray Black or Ryder Jones.

Also, it's likely that Williams Jerez is coming up, most probably taking Pat Venditte's spot, and Pavlovic also reported that Donovan Solano is coming up, the rumor is Solarte's going on IL, and Solano will need a 40-man spot too, along with Mac (again, Black and Jones could be pushed to 60-day IL)

I tweeted most of the below today, here's the tweaked version (okay, lots of tweaks), plus bits from prior tweets:

ogc big picture thoughts

I understand why Gerber got up first, options and all, but he’s been horrible so far, so it makes sense that Mac is next up, with how hot he’s gotten recently, and especially the sudden uptick in walks. Colorado is also a great place to hit in, to boot.  To be clear, I like Gerber, but with his repeat performance of his Tigers's MLB debut, he probably can clear waivers, if Zaidi wants to try that path (like he did with Mac), but since he has options, more likely he is simply optioned down to the minors.

It is no sure thing that Mac’ll be good at all, but he’s been great in AAA, beyond great the past couple of weeks, and deserves the opportunity. I’ll be rooting for him, seems like a nice guy, and with stats of past couple of weeks, can’t imagine him not contributing more in LF.

Even if he reverts to what he’s hit before, that’s still better than what we got so far, by far, and with his changed swing, the hope for more. People rag on him not doing it so far, pointing out his age, but his one chance to show his swing change worked was ruined by the concussion.

Mac Detractors Point Out Age

That’s one consistent thing I’ve seen detractors talk about, his inability to do it by this age.  And really, that doesn’t matter, players break out at all ages, and if he’s hitting great in minors, like he did last season, he deserves this opportunity, he looks ready.  Let's put it this way:  even if a guy is 35 YO, if he shows our scouts and coaches that he's finally figured things out, and can hit in the majors, wouldn't you give him a chance?  What's the cost of the chance? Who really cares how old he is, or how many opportunities he has gotten, if he can come up and hit?

And for all the outrage, what does it cost the Giants to give him a try, like they did Joe, Reed, Parra, Gerber? It is not like they were good choices, ultimately, as they didn’t hit for much either! And I still like Joe, Reed, Gerber as prospects. Mac may hit, and his AAA #’s suggest he will, but even if he doesn’t, he should still be given that chance based on what he’s doing in AAA.

We don’t know when players break out, that’s why they play the games, see what happens, who stands and who falls. It is all part of the development process.  There have been plenty of Top 50 players who fail to make it in the majors, so it's not a surprise that lesser prospects like Mac might fail, just as it's not a surprise if he succeeds, particularly given how well he has hit in AAA in the past two seasons.

Failure is the rule, but not all fail, and if someone is hitting like Mac and still under 30, you need to see what he can do in the majors and not say, "oh, he’s old, he’s gotten plenty of opportunities", that’s cutting off the nose to spite the face. The point is we need good hitters, and he’s looking good and ready.  It's time.

Mac's Season in Thirds (roughly)

Here's what I wanted to tweet but hate the formatting issues, Mac's 2019 season by chunks of games:

Apr 6-16:   7 games, .259/.300/.359/.559 with 1 BB/10 K in 27 AB/30 PA
Apr18-29:  9 games, .444/.459/.861/1.321 with 1 BB/9 K in 36 AB/37 PA
Apr30-May 6:  7 games, .421/.613/1.263/1.876 with 11 BB/6 K in 19 AB/31 PA

Yeah, I know SSS, but when the stats swing so wildly from sadly horrendous to great to Babe Ruthian Squared, how can you not bring him up?  I do not understand any logic that would explain why, after 7 games like that, Mac should not be given the opportunity to prove it in the majors!  Anybody hits like that, give him a shot!

Another interesting factoid: in those 7 games of 1.876 OPS, his BABIP was only .333, so there was not much luck, if any, involved in what he did there in terms of hitting (5 homers in 31 PA, probably some luck there, but still, how many players hit 5 homers in 31 PA?   That's a 100 HR seasonal pace for 620 PA).

Concussions Recovery Takes Time

And this graduated improvement just fits logically for me.  He got his concussion last season on April 25th.  So it wasn't even a year when he was trying but failing to win a spot on the Opening Day roster.  As I noted above, concussions take time to recover from them, and that affects every decision made about Mac.

Passing On Mac Does Not Mean He Has No Chance

For example, some point out that he was DFAed earlier, and therefore he's no good.  I could only smile at this lack of understanding of how the waiver system works!  Teams are not voting, like on The Bachelor, giving roses to players who are good, they are making a decision whether a player on their current 25-man/40-man roster is a better choice, at the moment, than Williamson is.  And at that moment in time, which is when most teams have their roster pretty much set, few are even going to consider picking up Mac, fewer still will take a chance on Mac after he hit so poorly in spring training, as they would be making a bet that Mac will recover sooner than later.

It was a calculated risk that Zaidi took by DFAing Mac, he was betting no team would be interested enough to pick him up.  And, in any case, if Zaidi didn't at minimum, have some belief that Mac could eventually come back, he would have just let Mac go as a free agent, the Giants didn't have to take him back, but they did.  And if anyone says that this makes sense, because you want to hold onto valuable tradeable chips, that contradicts their statement that Mac has no value because he was passed on by all 29 other teams.

Everyone Recovers From Concussions Differently

Because nobody knows how long it takes for a player to recover from a concussion.  I point out the one year mark not because it's a magic number that is logical for a player to recover, but because he suffered a major concussion, based on the way it looked on the video of his injury.  He rolled into the wall with his head, almost straight on, and he suffered such major issues that he couldn't even play for the rest of the season.  They pad the walls, but they are not memory foam that absorbs the collision, so if you hit the pad straight on, like Mac did, you will suffer a lot of injury to your brain.

So I was not surprised that he was out of it still in spring training, nor at the start of this season. I would not have been surprised if he was not that great for the rest of the 2019 season.  I was only hoping that he would recover in time to contribute to the Giants this season, both because our offense needs the lift, as well as a right-handed power bat.  But every injury and player has their own time table for recovery, maybe there is never a recovery, maybe there is a partial recovery, maybe he returns like nothing happened, not even doctors know.

Mac's Stats Show Growth, Even with SSS

For now, it looks like he is returning like nothing happened.  Looking at his stats, he started out badly initially.  He started getting good again on April 18th, or so (he was starting to be okay on April 12th), and then really started hitting on April 25th, when he had a 4-hit game.  Then took things up another notch on April 30, when he started walking a ton, as well as keeping up the hitting, and the power.

Here's how his 2018 compares to two different slices of 2019:

April 5-18, 2018:       11 games, .487/.600/1.026/1.626, with 7 BB/5 K in 39 AB/50 PA (.464 BABIP)
Apr 30-May 6, 2019: 7 games, .421/.613/1.263/1.876, with 11 BB/6 K in 19 AB/31 PA (.333 BABIP)
Apr 25-May 6, 2019: 11 games, .455/.578/1.061/1.638, with 11 BB/10 K in 33 AB/45 PA (.500 BABIP)

All remarkably similar, suggesting that Mac is back to where he was last season.   And it made sense to wait it out for him, and let Gerber get the first shot, Mac didn't really start to look like 2018 AAA Mac until April 30, when the walks kicked in.

No Guarantee, But He Should Be Improvement

And it is no guarantee that he will hit for us now like he did last season.  But at this point, when a guy is hitting that well in the minors, there's nothing else left to prove in AAA, he's earned a shot at showing what he can do in the majors again.  And he's been a good defensive OF too boot, so it is not necessarily a loss in defense by putting him into the lineup, but it's sure to be an improvement on the hitting.

Besides which, LF for SF has hit .162/.225/.223/.448 in 2019. Mac's career MLB batting line, including when he was using his old swing is .222/.295/.386/.681, which would be a huge improvement offensively.   So even if his swing change doesn't result in improvement over his career numbers, he'll be a massive improvement in the offense.

Furthermore, presumably he can hit better with his improved swing that improved his results in AAA:  he had an .809 OPS in 2015-16 with extended playing time, but now hitting over 1.000 OPS.  Even if only half that 200+ improvement is added to his MLB stats, that puts him near .800 OPS in the majors.  That's basically what the average NL LF is hitting, .788 OPS. 

Moreover, people forget, but it is not a matter of comparing him to the average NL LF, we are looking for improvement, period, in LF for the Giants.  And again, 681 career OPS is a huge improvement, period, over .448 OPS, plus whatever gains he attains with his new swing.  It's basically a no-lose situation for the Giants right now, especially in light of .448 OPS so far for SF LF.

And the Giants have been playing .500 roughly since Austin was added to the roster, so any additional offense should push the team above .500, going forward.   Unlikely to be enough to compete for the playoffs, but as I've been saying all year, the Giants should be above .500, with their talented pitching and fielding, and I think this should tip the Giants forward, even if he only hits .681, to get closer to .500, and eventually above .500. 

All we've been saying, is give Mac a chance!