Heliot Ramos in Perspective

Given Ramos' untimely IL, out for at least a month, I thought I would take a look at how what he's doing now compares with the best of the California League, from 2014-2019, basically the prior 5 seasons.

ogc big picture thoughts

One of the big things I preach about prospect evaluations is seeing his performance in context of his age and the league he's doing it in.  It's one thing if you are a 30+ YO journeyman (hello Brian Dallimore, whom Brute Sentiment was clamoring for back in 2005), another if you are a 19 YO.  Age relative to league is an important thing to consider, as an underaged player might not look at great playing against guys 3-5 years older than he is - above average but not all world - and some would think that's a poor season (like Ramos in 2018), but then viewed against similar aged players, it illuminates the potential he's showing.

Of course, Ramos' 2019 is extreme small samples right now, but I thought it would be instructive still to see his performance in context of the 19 YO's who has played in the California League over the prior 5 seasons.  Data from Fangraphs "The Board".

Heliot Ramos vs. other 19 YO Advanced-A Performances

Ramos, so far this season:

183 wRC+  .450 wOBA  .300 BABIP  1.009 OPS  .317 ISO

Over the prior 5 seasons, these 19 YO were the only ones at 130 wRC+ or higher (I stopped there because Bellinger was there, and the names under were not impressive at all):

Heliot Ramos:   183 wRC+  .450 wOBA  .300 BABIP  1.009 OPS  .317 ISO
Juan Soto:         245 wRC+  .548 wOBA  .340 BABIP   1.256 OPS  .419 ISO

Alex Verdugo:   183 wRC+  .454 wOBA  .408 BABIP  1.066 OPS  .275 ISO

Kyle Tucker:     166 wRC+  .425 wOBA  .337 BABIP    .973 OPS  .280 ISO

Carlos Correa:   144 wRC+  .407 wOBA  .373 BABIP    .926 OPS  .185 ISO

Jake Bauers:     142 wRC+  .374 wOBA  .291 BABIP    .791 OPS  .166 ISO

Ron Acuna Jr:   135 wRC+  .370 wOBA  .411 BABIP    .814 OPS  .191 ISO

Jo Adell:            135 wRC+  .384 wOBA  .345 BABIP    .891 OPS  .256 ISO

Victor Robles:   133 wRC+  .375 wOBA  .330 BABIP    .824 OPS  .176 ISO
Cody Bellinger: 130 wRC+  .372 wOBA  .314 BABIP   .873 OPS   .274 ISO
Luis Urias:         130 wRC+  .379 wOBA  .348 BABIP   .836 OPS   .109 ISO

Of course, not totally fair to some of the younger players, as they haven't had the chance to learn (like Urias and Bauers), as they are still relatively new to the majors, small samples and all, but still interesting:

Juan Soto:            141 wRC+  .385 wOBA  .331 BABIP  .905 OPS   204 ISO
Alex Verdugo:     117 wRC+  .342 wOBA  .307 BABIP  .801 OPS   185 ISO
Carlos Correa:     129 wRC+  .356 wOBA  .319 BABIP  .838 OPS   204 ISO
Jake Bauers:          93 wRC+  .307 wOBA  .259 BABIP  .699 OPS   173 ISO
Ron Acuna Jr:     142 wRC+  .387 wOBA  .348 BABIP  .914 OPS   250 ISO
Victor Robles:     112 wRC+  .344 wOBA  .333 BABIP  .813 OPS   223 ISO
Cody Bellinger:   141 wRC+ .380 wOBA  .316 BABIP  .919 OPS   277 ISO (obviously boosted...)
Luis Urias:            50 wRC+  .242 wOBA  .200 BABIP  .534 OPS   111 ISO

Best case scenarios, Soto is, obviously, and obviously that's not happening with Ramos so far.  But the struggles of Urias and Bauers reminds us that not all prospects jump into the majors and succeed immediately, even the best ones struggle, and many don't ever figure it out.

Key Ramos Notes

But there are some key things to remember.  First, 19 YO prospects don't go into Advanced A-ball  and dominate as Ramos has so far.  Only two so far, Soto and Verdugo (and both of them also had SSS experience in Advanced-A), has wRC+ as high as him.  Of course, extreme SSS, the league was definitely going to adjust and bring that down for Ramos, but still, neither was the two of them.  In fact, Verdugo hit that at the end of his 19 YO season, so Ramos is ahead of him.  And as one can see, Ramos can fall a lot and still be among the best the league has seen in the past 5 seasons.

Second, Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler has a time table for understanding how good the prospect is.  The ideal age for Advanced-A ball is around 20, for AA 21, and for AAA 23.  If the prospect is younger and holds his own (or do better) against much older and experienced players, obviously he's a pretty good prospect then.  That's what Ramos is showing, both last season (in spite of his age gap of roughly 3-5 years younger, he was still an above average hitter) and now this season, in spades (remember, 2018 was his first full season away from home, which is an adjustment as well).

Third, Ramos might not be that far away.  Soto reached the majors at 19 YO, so that's not happening, but Acuna Jr and Correa both reached the majors and was full-time at 20 YO.  Verdugo reached the majors by age 21, and was full time at age 23. Bellinger was a full-time player by the time he was 21 YO.  Robles reached the majors at 20 YO and is full-time now at 22 YO, this season.

Robles is in his 22 YO season, this season, but the way he was hitting in 2018 in the minors, he probably could have been full time in 2018, when he was 21 YO, it looks like an injury affected his development path (only 290 PA last season).  And Robles rose to Advanced-A in his 19 YO season, he didn't start there, and I just found out that the Board is providing not just his 19 YO season batting line, that includes his 20 YO season batting in Advanced-A.

Ramos Could Be Major Leaguer Sooner Than Later

So Heliot Ramos could be a full-time starter by sometime in 2021, if he follows the better path, reaching by age 20, which was his goal, but most were full-time by age 22, so 2023 if he's on par with most of these players.

And remember, right now, he's head and shoulders above what most did in their 19 YO season.  Verdugo is the closest match by hitting, but Ramos struck out a heck of a lot more than Verdugo did (24.1% vs. 12.5%, which shows a mastery).  Still, Bellinger was worse (27.6% K%) and Ramos has the better BB% (16.9% vs. Bellinger's 9.6%).

It's not science yet, but it is heartening to see so many similar hitting players at the same age/level who broke out and became full-time starters in the majors.  And the ones that haven't, just had their 19 YO season recently, so perhaps with time.  And Tucker is a bit of an outlier, as, again, the data captures the prospects who were 19 YO in Advanced-A, but then includes their 20 YO stats in there too, like for Tucker, who is still struggling in his 22 YO season in the majors.

Still, Ramos' K% is the worse in this bunch, except for Adell and Bellinger, and by a lot, they were the only ones above 20% (Adell even worse, 29.0%).

However, his BB% of 16.9% is the best of the bunch as well, leaving him with a good, strong 0.70 BB/K ratio (above 0.50 is the minimum, and the best are above 1.00).  In BB%, Soto was next at 15.1% (only 11.0% K%, no wonder he's in the majors already), then Tucker at 12.4%, and Correa at 12.3%.   His 0.70 BB/K ratio is in the middle, Bellinger at 0.35, but Correa at 0.80, Verdugo at 0.33 (with Bellinger, belies the talk Zaidi only looks at high BB%/high OBP hitters), Acuna Jr at 0.20.

In any case, he's in very good company.  As you peruse the hitters MLB batting lines above, Bauers and Urias is still trying to make the majors for good, but still young, while the rest, the lowest wRC+ is Robles at 112 and Verdugo at 117, and both just reach full-time majors in 2019.

And Ramos is keeping pace with Acuna in this regard.  I compared him with Acuna's performance in A-ball last season, and people didn't like that, but he's continuing to follow that path, and outdoing it by a lot this season.  And while Ramos has not had any luck this season with BABIP (only .300), Acuna had a lot of luck (.411 BABIP) that's unsustainable (he's still a great .348 BABIP in majors so far).  Correa .373 BABIP in Advanced-A, .319 in majors, Soto .340 BABIP vs. .331, Robles .333 vs. .330, Verdugo .408 vs. .307, and Bellinger .314 vs. .316.  If anything, perhaps Ramos might improve some, with development.