Is the Starting Pitching Failing the Giants?

Many folks are questioning whether the Giants starting rotation is OK, saying that they have failed the team, from what I heard on the radio.  I thought I would look into that.
ogc thoughts

As my long-time readers know, I like to use PQS to analyze pitching (see label for prior posts on this methodology for Pure Quality Starts, QS from a saber perspective).  Out of 19 starts, there have been 11 DOM starts and only 2 DIS starts.  And in Zito's DIS start, he was actually dominant there, in terms of his strikeouts, it was just that he had very bad luck with the hits and homers, so there is an asterisk on that start in my eyes.  The starting rotation has been very dominant so far, it is jus that the results (ERA) don't match up.

Let's look at each starter.

Madison Bumgarner

Obviously doing well, 2.05 ERA, he's starting to pile up the K's that his minor's stats suggested, with 27 K's in 26.1 IP, great K/9 plus 27 K/7 BB, almost 4.0 K/BB ratio, which is great.  Nobody questions him in the rotation, clearly.  But I view this as an early sign that he might actually be taking another step forward, much like Cain would advance every couple of years in terms of his development.

Matt Cain

Now, he's a question mark in the eyes of some fans because of his 7.15 ERA, and two really bad starts.  However, he's got 2 DOM starts and 1 DIS start out of 4 starts so far, which is good, though low for him, but when there is only 4 starts, he really could only be above or below. 

I would note that his bad start in Milwaukee was actually a 3 PQS start, neither good nor bad, but he just had a lot of bad luck, particularly with the long ball.  That's not going to happen very often for him, he's been an above average pitcher during his career in keeping the long ball in the park, his HR rate has been very low for his career.  He is fine by PQS, it is still early.

Tim Lincecum

He's also another big question mark in the eyes of some fans because he's been all over the place in his starts and he had a 5.62 ERA before his great last start.  However, I would note that he has two DOM starts and zero DIS starts, using PQS.  His bad start against Colorado was actually a DOM start (4 PQS) where he just gave up too many key hits in key situations.  And again, zero DIS starts.

His main problems is clearly walks, but he conquered that in his last two starts.  Whatever has been bothering him appears to be disappearing with each start.  I think he's fine too, but time will tell.

Ryan Vogelsong

Another big question mark has been Vogie, due to his 5.89 ERA and two poor starts.  But by PQS, he has two DOM starts in three, with zero DIS starts.  Again, great PQS, much like Lincecum.  And right in line with his career numbers since he turned his career around with his second stint with the Giants.

He was just BABIPed in his first two starts, his second start was actually a DOM start, even though he gave up 5 runs, 4 earned.  But in early season, when there are so few starts on the ledger, any outlier data will screw up any statistical analysis.  That is why it is better to view each game as a separate entity, and to view it from a saber perspective, instead of a results oriented view using just ERA.

Barry Zito

Barry has not been questioned much because of his three shutouts at home, but some worry was brought up by his very poor start in Milwaukee.  Here, it should be pointed out that he's always had troubles in Milwaukee, there is something about this stadium that just don't work for him, the hitters see his pitches very well here, they are not fooled. 

Or fooled enough, because he still struck out 5 batters, which is great, the only problem is that there were a lot of other hitters/ABs where they just hit the ball well enough to drive in runs, I heard that inning and he got dinked and wasn't helped by his defense, and sometimes when either happen (and especially when both happens), the dam gates are opened and he gets blasted.  Of course, part of the issue is that they have a great lineup to boot, that don't help either.  He is like Cain, two DOM starts, one DIS start, in four starts, which is good, and he has had good streaks like this in the past.

Starting Pitching Has Been Good

There is nothing to worry about the starting pitching, they as a unit has been very good, 58% DOM, 10% DIS, a pitcher doing that is performing great, a rotation doing that is amazing for its depth and dominance.  

Of course, I could note that 58% is actually on the low side for our starters in recent years (they have been putting up 60%+ monthly for years now), so that should be noted, but with basically one start where it goes wrong for the starter for most of the starters (only Bumgarner has not had one like that), that's a huge percentage for just the one pitcher, and becomes huge when four of the five has the problem.  As a result, we must acknowledge that it is still early for all the pitchers and give them more time to show whether that was actually a problem or just an anomaly given larger importance due to it happening early in the season and before they get a lot of starts under their belt.  And changing one start to a DOM start would have put the rotation above 60%.

Now, the offense is another question...