Your 2011 Giants: Apocalypse Now or Not

It's August 30, and your Giants team is down by 5 games in the standings.  Not that long ago, the Giants were right there, battling for the division title, but it was all slipping away now.  Your top pitchers, Lincecum and Cain, were up and down, with bad starts that you wouldn't believe, plus Bumgarner had his ups and downs, and Zito was giving you nothing.  And your lousy offense, your sad-sack, god-awful offense, wasn't doing anything, scoring 3 runs or less more than 50% of the games that month.  The Giants fan base were up in arms, ready to write them off for the season.

Then Lincecum figured out his slider, the Giants pitching staff goes on a tear that only had happened once in the history of baseball, Ross is Boss, Renteria makes Fleming's voice cracks, and we end with a parade downtown S.F. showing off the Rally Thong and the 2010 World Championship trophy.  What a great season 2010 was!

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That's the beauty and pain of human emotions, you are driven up and down by the current circumstances and momentums, the pendulum swings wildly from pain to elevation and back.  It does not mean that what you feel is necessarily wrong but it don't mean that it is right either.

We don't know what is going to happen.  That's the fun and thrill I get from a baseball season.  Will our pitcher get the other team out?  Will our hitters start to hit like they can/should?  Or will they strike out like Mighty Casey?  That is drama each and every game, each and every at-bat.  We don't know what is going to happen and that is what keeps us watching/listening and praying that our mighty Giants can do it.

I have been seeing a lot of people say that this is 2011 and not 2010, that it was very different last season.  But I just don't buy it, at least for the reasons they give.

As I implied with my opening paragraph, there are a lot of similarities between the seasons.  As I noted in a prior post, last season had a lot of injuries as well, and to key players (though probably not as key as Posey, admittedly, though I would argue that Sandoval was basically lost to us most of the 2010 season, and he's been, frankly, the better hitter, and thus a greater loss, at least as a bat).  There are a lot of similarities.

But I find all the hand-wringing about the differences between this year and last year to be a lot of self-justification for their feelings, when, to me, it seems very plain and simple:  no year is ever like another year.

Unless, you know, you have a very extended bout with deja vu, all over again.

But while no year is the same, there are a lot of things you can assume as a given:  we have a great rotation and when it is on, it can do magical things.  Not that we can expect it to match another 100 year old accomplishment or anything like that, but it is a damn good pitching rotation, one that at least 28 teams would be happen to trade their rotation for our rotation and give us something for our troubles.

But that doesn't mean that they will necessarily be great in September.  The joy and pain of watching any professional sport is that the vets can usually be counted on to produce, but with the human element, you just don't know what exactly will happen any particular day, and the reverse is true for the rookies and young players, it would be folly to rely entirely on them to produce, and sometimes they just grab the brass ring and be the hero.

If that makes me an optimist, so be it.  I don't see how seeing the possibility of a good result makes anyone an optimist, that is just part of being a realist, of seeing the facts laid out bare, objectively.  And there are reasons to feel good about the Giants chances as well as all the plenty of reasons to feel bad about them.  The pitching, more times than not, has delivered.  The offense, more times than not, has not delivered.

The offense actually did not deliver during September and the playoffs either, but it delivered enough that our superlative pitching could win with even that.

But again, that doesn't mean that will happen this season either.

The Offense is Like a Crippled Horse

Honestly, I'm a bit ashamed by the criticism in the press about the offense, and some of the fans too.  Most offenses do not recover from losing their cleanup hitter and, frankly, spiritual leader, as the Giants did when Buster Posey went down.  Take away Tulo from the Rockies and let's see how good their offense and team spirit is.

On top of that, our lead-off hitter has been AWOL all season, apparently his ADHD medication has worn out its welcome and his doctors are working to figure out another formula that works for him.  That's not an injury but it is certain health related and as bad as any injury, heck, worse because he's still around and playing poorly.  Franchez is gone and he was invaluable in the 2-spot, don't see that commenter coming around anymore crying about losing Alderson in that trade.

On top of that, our best hitter, Kung Fu Panda, has been injured for extended periods of time, including now. As much as I'm disappointed by Huff, basically it is like last season, between Huff and Panda, we got one good hitter and one mediocre one.  Not much difference from last season, to me.  And Schierholtz, after another promising extended length of good playing overall, gets injured and put out of commission again.

Sabean did what he could, he traded his big trading chip to get the big RBI guy on the market, Carlos Beltran.    Don't see a lot of people blaming him for a failed trade, like many often do when he trades for someone and that player doesn't perform, but they should be doing it those times too.  We can't always trade away our big prospect for a rental player.  That is a sure way to shorten greatly your window of winning.  So Sabean got the best he could get, he rolled the dice.  Better than still suffering with Niekro at 1B striking out a storm.

To me, it's like picking on the handicapped kid because he can't perform well.  Why not have some human sympathy?  You have to accept that sometimes people are trying their best and working hard but the results aren't coming.  Plus, things just get in a negative feedback loop, making things worse.

We Need A Hero

Paraphrasing that song, we need a hero to step up and lead the troops up the hill.  I was hoping Pablo would be doing that, but since they are still struggling, I assume that is not taking.  Huff, I have realized for a while now, is not really a leader.  He's the class clown, good for easing tensions and getting a good laugh.  Beltran seems like he's a poser is like that character in the movie, "show me the money."  I think DeRosa has the experience and gravitas that might be able to rouse the troops, but first, I think he would have to be semi-starting at least, and time is running out.

Maybe some of the players joining the team on September 1st or later will help.  Maybe Burrell's bat will win us some games, as this recent article noted it did in 2010.  He was also a leader last season.  Maybe adding the young guys, Ford, Burriss, Hector, Gillaspie (I assume all hands will be on deck), will add some needed energy to the team.  After all, it was Ford's electric running that energized the club both last September and earlier this season.  Maybe we can pick up someone off waivers, though that would cost us another 40-man spot.

Sometimes, it could be someone as simple as Eric Surkamp, joining the team and doing well.  Or Steve Edlefsen.

Don't know what the answer is.  And sometimes in life, there is no answer, just what is.

Pitching is Underrated

All I know is that I have faith in our pitching.  Our pitching can do a lot of good things and has done it for a long time now.  That won't mean that the team will win the division title, but it should mean that it should be a hell of a good month of September, while our team battles it out to try to get back on top.  I will enjoy that and am sad that there are so many people not enjoying baseball, though I'm getting more resigned to that every day.

I don't know why people don't enjoy the pitching more.  I think back to when the Giants had a great offense, and that is all people think about, particularly about the 2002 World Series.  And while I remember the offense, what sticks out more in my mind is that our pitching cost us that series.   The Giants should have won game 2.  If we won that, series victor would have been the Giants.  First they blew it by giving up all those runs early, then the offense battles back to take the lead, only for the pitching to lose the game by giving up four more runs.  And Livan pitched two lifeless games for us, I don't know why Baker went with Livan over Rueter, but that just echoed 1987 when Craig went with Hammaker over Krukow:  the loser over the gamer.

When you have starting pitchers who regularly throw DOM starts at a high percentage of their starts, you will have good results, lots of winning.  That was the formula in May, June, July, and why we won so many games.  That was the formula in 2010 and in 2009 as well.

Again, don't mean it will happen, but I'm standing by our rotation and our bullpen.  As the saying goes, live by the sword, die by the sword.  I expect them to do well and that expectation is born of these pitchers' past performances and successes.  I will take my chances with the pitching and if it works out, swell, and if not, I know that they did their best.

And that, is really all you can hope for, at this point.  5 games behind is a lot right now, usually insurmountable, particularly while the other team has been winning a lot.

But it is very easy to get sucked into all the negativity right now.  We have been losing and they have been winning.  But Arizona has been lucky this month.  107 runs scored vs. 100 runs allowed in August, usually results in a 13-14 or 14-13 record, not 17-10.  They are currently 5 games over their Pythagorean at 76 wins.  They should be at 71 wins.  Of course, we should be even less.  So it will be interesting to see who regresses more in September, the D-backs or the Giants.

And we have our glorious pitching.  Game on!