First off, I've never seen such an extended list of Giants prospects ever. Impressive.
Top 2011 Giants Prospects
But first, he listed his Top 2000 (!!!) prospects for 2011, which I presume resulted from the database above, and the following Giants were the top (with their overall rank; see here for Top 50 2011 Giants prospects):
- Brandon Belt (63)
- Zach Wheeler (99)
- Thomas Neal (125)
- Tommy Joseph (179)
- Francisco Peguero (222)
- Rafael Rodriguez (224)
- Gary Brown (229)
- Charlie Culberson (233)
- Conor Gillaspie (282)
- Michael Main (314)
- Nick Noonan (330)
- Ehire Adrianza (460)
- Eric Surkamp (476)
- Jarrett Parker (535)
- Dan Burkart (547)
- Brandon Crawford (579)
First off, Belt is rated much lower than most services, which have him among the top 20-40 prospects in the majors. But not all are believers in his bat, which I have interpreted as their taking into assessment how he hit in college and/or that they don't think he projects to hit that many homers, more of a gap-to-gap hitter. I think these concerns are overblown, based on how well he hit (and his relative youth) in 2010.
Wheeler is rated by some in the top 40's but some leave him off their list, so this #99 just reflects the wide array of opinions given his shortened season. Pitcher who can throw in the mid-to-high 90's regularly, strikeout a lot of batters, AND get a lot of groundballs are golden, not sure why people are so scared of putting him higher. I think a comp with King Feliz would be a good match, in terms of potential, but of those traits would give him a great advantage over MLB hitters: having all three is just killer.
There were more surprises among these. Rodriguez, Main, Noonan are rated relatively highly in his system, while Brown, Adrianza, and Crawford are rated relatively lowly. Interesting names that pop out include Gillaspie, Main, Noonan, Surkamp and especially Burhart.
Giants Prospects Ranked by Total
One stat he provides is Total, a number from 20-80 (mostly) based on a variety of stats including age to define a player's performance compared to players at his level. Here are the top 15 (with their total):
- Edwin Escobar 73 LH-SP
- Ehire Adrianza 73 SS
- Charlie Culberson 72 2B
- Thomas Neal 71 LF
- Conor Gillaspie 70 3B
- Francisco Peguero 70 OF
- Jorge Bucardo 69 SP
- Kendry Flores 69 SP
- Brandon Belt 67 1B/LF
- Lorenzo Medoza 66 SP
- Nick Liles 66 2B
- Nick Noonan 66 2B
- Hector Sanchez 65 C
- Ydwin Villegas 65 SS
- Eric Surkamp 64 SP
- Jacob Dunnington 64 RP
- Marvin Barrios 64 RP
What I do like about the list is that it also captures names we don't regularly see among the Giants top prospects, like Edwin Escobar, Jorge Bucardo, Kendry Flores, Lorenzo Mendoza (first time I've heard of him), Nick Niles, Ydwin Villegas, Jacob Dunnington, and Marvin Barrios (another first timer).
Players who did not have a Talent value include Chris Dominguez, Gary Brown, Heath Hembree, Jarrett Parker, Matt Graham, Tommy Joseph, and Zach Wheeler. Not sure why, but clearly he ranked them somehow as many made his Top 2000 list. I would guess he used some combo of the three chances columns that he had.
I guess one thing I like of his system is that he takes age into account. Noonan by most measures did not perform well and he fell on most lists, if not fell off the list, of Giants prospects. However, he's was only 21 playing in AA where most players are a couple of years older or more, and people forget about that.
Top Ceiling Giants Players
Here are the top Giants ceilings, down to starter/solid regular for position players (10: all-time great; 9: superstar; 8: occassional all-star; 7.6 above average starter; 7.3 slightly above average starter; 7: starter-solid regular) and down to #5 starter/set-up (10: all-time great; 9: ace or top closer; 8: #1/#2 or closer; 7.6: #3 starter or setup; 7.3: #4 starter or setup; 7: #5 starter or setup) or 7 and above:
- Zach Wheeler 9.5
- Rafael Rodriguez 8.5
- Brandon Belt 8 (ties settled by highest floor)
- Michael Main 8
- Tommy Joseph 8 (floor ties settled by highest chance to majors - talent)
- Gary Brown 8
- Francisco Peguero 8
- Jarrett Parker 8
- Heath Hembree 8
- Thomas Neal 7.6
- Matt Graham 7.6
- Henry Sosa 7.6
- Hector Correa 7.6
- Charlie Culberson 7.5
- Conor Gillaspie 7.3
- Nick Noonan 7.3
- Brandon Crawford 7.3
- Roger Kieschnick 7.3
- Mike Kickham 7.3
- Wilbur Bucardo 7.3
The following were rated a 7: Ehire Adrianza; Eric Surkamp; Marvin Barrios; Jason Stoffel; Brett Pill; Aaron King; Charles Jones; Clayton Tanner; Wendell Fairley; Stephen Harrold; Daniel Burkart; Austin Fleet; Chris Dominguez; Reinier Roibal (no particular order).
Remember, just ceiling, and most have wide spaces between floor and ceiling, and all the floors are at best replacement level players. Still, good to see who might be pretty good if things work out and who is not really that good overall, at least in terms of potential for being a star. It helps us to keep some perspective on how good any one particular prospect is or isn't. And who maybe we should keep an eye out for.
Top Giants Chance to Majors - Talent
He also calculated each prospects chances for the majors based on a number of different factors. Need to remember that making the majors is not the same as doing well there, hence why I chose to focus on the chance to majors based on talent, as those, to me, are the most likeliest to be the star players we root for on the team.
- Zach Wheeler 87.9%
- Brandon Belt 87.0%
- Thomas Neal 86.7%
- Tommy Joseph 85.1%
- Rafael Rodriguez 83.3%
- Charlie Culberson 82.5%
- Gary Brown 80.9%
- Francisco Peguero 80.5%
- Conor Gillaspie 80.3%
- Michael Main 79.0%
- Nick Noonan 76.7%
- Ehire Adrianza 74.01%
- Eric Surkamp 72.9%
- Jarrett Parker 72.5%
- Brandon Crawford 69.4%
Meh
ReplyDeleteCheck this out:
http://tinyurl.com/62pj7fq
Meh, no thanks.
ReplyDeleteMy son just did something like that - click on a site that he couldn't see what the URL was - and the virus was an anti-virus software that took over my home computer and shut down my old virus software. It is not even listed under programs to delete. Now I have to figure out how to get it fixed because we can't afford to bring it in.
The link is to an article comparing the BA top 100 from 10 years ago to how they fared and how the list would be if re-written today (same cast) etc.
ReplyDeleteOops, sorry Frank, thought you were referring to my article. Thanks for pointing out what the comment was about.
ReplyDeleteI saw that article about how it changes over time. That happens every year which is a good point about how things can change over time, depending on how talent develops.
That makes my point even stronger, not meh, that no one list is the see all and tell all, even BA's, and thus it is worthwhile to look at various other lists in order to see who might be interesting in the system that you might not have thought of before.
For example, BA did not think much of Sandoval at all, but some list turned me on to him, don't recall who, and when I examined his stats, I was sold that he was ready for a breakout, and made sure that I drafted him in a keeper fantasy league. I drafted him like he was a top prospect and as we all know, he did great in 2008 and 2009.
Interesting stuff. Thanks Martin. I wish I could grasp some of the methodology behind these numbers better. Particularly that Total number. I didn't understand that at all.
ReplyDeleteOne caution on comping Wheeler to Hernandez: at Wheeler's age King Felix had already started 43 major league games. He pitched at the low A level (where Wheeler was last year) at 17 and while he didn't have many more innings (69 total), he was more impressive across the board than Wheeler, with a 2.22 ERA, 11.9 K/9 and 3.37 K/bb. Both Wheeler and Hernandez showed strong stikeout stuff matched with high groundball tendencies (though even there I believe Felix was stronger, but with minorleaguesplits gone I can't find those numbers), but the walk rate was a huge separator, and of course, the three years age difference.
Yeah, it would be better if we had a better idea of the methodology, Roger. Still, the ranking didn't look bad, so it is interesting.
ReplyDeleteThanks for pointing out those differences between Wheeler and King Felix. I was not trying to suggest that they will be equal in performance, so I appreciate you pointing this out. I was only trying to point out that Wheeler is a high strikeout guy and high groundball guy like Felix. Those type of pitchers are the holy grail of pitcher development.
Yeah, I wish minorleaguesplits would have just left what was there instead of releasing the data and leaving us to our own devices.
But yes, huge differences in performance and age, I was only focusing on the strikeouts and groundballs.
Still, that's like comparing with someone who is the best, you can still be pretty good and not measure up to the idea/perfect.
I am pretty excited over Wheeler, the Giants have worked with high walk guys before (Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez) and helped them get better over time.
What they can't help is when the guy gets injured regularly (Ainsworth, Schierholtz, Liriano), so hopefully Wheeler's fingernail issue in 2010 is not a sign of future injury issues.
So 2011 will be pivotal for finding out what he is capable of, he should start out in San Jose and they might jump him to Richmond if he is dominating there, then AAA in 2012.
But I would add that the Giants were not afraid of jumping guys they think they can work with, Sanchez was pretty much jumped from Augusta to the majors, if Wheeler is dealing in San Jose and the Giants need a new starter for any reason, I would think that he would be considered (though not necessarily brought up).
Great breakdown, I'll be sure to link it.
ReplyDeleteAlso, OT but, I think tinyurl offers a preview service where you can preview a link before clicking through to it. I had the same problem though....a stupid virus software from some random URL destroyed my desktop, and now I must buy a new computer....Grrr