2011 Giants Prospects Ranked by MLB Bonus Baby

One site I check regularly, and especially so leading up to the draft is MLB Bonus Baby.  The author recently  released his database of 2011 prospect ratings and I, as I am wont to do, did some analysis of the Giants prospects.

First off, I've never seen such an extended list of Giants prospects ever.  Impressive.

Top 2011 Giants Prospects

But first, he listed his Top 2000 (!!!) prospects for 2011, which I presume resulted from the database above, and the following Giants were the top (with their overall rank; see here for Top 50 2011 Giants prospects):

1. Brandon Belt (63)
2. Zach Wheeler (99)
3. Thomas Neal (125)
4. Tommy Joseph (179)
5. Francisco Peguero (222)
6. Rafael Rodriguez (224)
7. Gary Brown (229)
8. Charlie Culberson (233)
9. Conor Gillaspie (282)
10. Michael Main (314)
11. Nick Noonan (330)
12. Ehire Adrianza (460)
13. Eric Surkamp (476)
14. Jarrett Parker (535)
15. Dan Burkart (547)
16. Brandon Crawford (579)

Not that I endorse this methodology - which he did not release or explain beyond the very short description at his site - but I had previously found that the site has a lot of good information regarding players drafted and I think it is interesting to examine these lists, to see where it confirms our general impressions and where it converges.  Though I must note that ownership/authorship of the blog has changed since last summer, with this new guy taking over in December:  presumably SB Nation found a good replacement, and judging from comments on the announcement, it seems he's been doing this sort of stuff for a while and people are happy about the changeover.

First off, Belt is rated much lower than most services, which have him among the top 20-40 prospects in the majors.  But not all are believers in his bat, which I have interpreted as their taking into assessment how he hit in college and/or that they don't think he projects to hit that many homers, more of a gap-to-gap hitter.  I think these concerns are overblown, based on how well he hit (and his relative youth) in 2010. 

Wheeler is rated by some in the top 40's but some leave him off their list, so this #99 just reflects the wide array of opinions given his shortened season.  Pitcher who can throw in the mid-to-high 90's regularly, strikeout a lot of batters, AND get a lot of groundballs are golden, not sure why people are so scared of putting him higher.  I think a comp with King Feliz would be a good match, in terms of potential, but of those traits would give him a great advantage over MLB hitters: having all three is just killer.

There were more surprises among these.  Rodriguez, Main, Noonan are rated relatively highly in his system, while Brown, Adrianza, and Crawford are rated relatively lowly.  Interesting names that pop out include Gillaspie, Main, Noonan, Surkamp and especially Burhart.

Giants Prospects Ranked by Total

One stat he provides is Total, a number from 20-80 (mostly) based on a variety of stats including age to define a player's performance compared to players at his level.  Here are the top 15 (with their total):

1. Edwin Escobar 73 LH-SP
2. Ehire Adrianza 73 SS
3. Charlie Culberson 72 2B
4. Thomas Neal 71 LF
5. Conor Gillaspie 70 3B
6. Francisco Peguero 70 OF
7. Jorge Bucardo 69 SP
8. Kendry Flores 69 SP
9. Brandon Belt 67 1B/LF
10. Lorenzo Medoza 66 SP
11. Nick Liles 66 2B
12. Nick Noonan 66 2B
13. Hector Sanchez 65 C
14. Ydwin Villegas 65 SS
15. Eric Surkamp 64 SP
16. Jacob Dunnington 64 RP
17. Marvin Barrios 64 RP

This attempts to rate how good a player appears to be in 2010, it seems, and it mostly captures what I think most would say were the most successful Giants prospects of 2010.

What I do like about the list is that it also captures names we don't regularly see among the Giants top prospects, like Edwin Escobar, Jorge Bucardo, Kendry Flores, Lorenzo Mendoza (first time I've heard of him), Nick Niles, Ydwin Villegas, Jacob Dunnington, and Marvin Barrios (another first timer).

Players who did not have a Talent value include Chris Dominguez, Gary Brown, Heath Hembree, Jarrett Parker, Matt Graham, Tommy Joseph, and Zach Wheeler.  Not sure why, but clearly he ranked them somehow as many made his Top 2000 list.  I would guess he used some combo of the three chances columns that he had.

I guess one thing I like of his system is that he takes age into account.  Noonan by most measures did not perform well and he fell on most lists, if not fell off the list, of Giants prospects.  However, he's was only 21 playing in AA where most players are a couple of years older or more, and people forget about that.

Top Ceiling Giants Players

Here are the top Giants ceilings, down to starter/solid regular for position players (10: all-time great; 9: superstar; 8: occassional all-star; 7.6 above average starter; 7.3 slightly above average starter; 7: starter-solid regular) and down to #5 starter/set-up (10: all-time great; 9: ace or top closer; 8: #1/#2 or closer; 7.6: #3 starter or setup; 7.3: #4 starter or setup; 7: #5 starter or setup) or 7 and above:

1. Zach Wheeler 9.5
2. Rafael Rodriguez 8.5
3. Brandon Belt 8 (ties settled by highest floor)
4. Michael Main 8
5. Tommy Joseph 8 (floor ties settled by highest chance to majors - talent)
6. Gary Brown 8
7. Francisco Peguero 8
8. Jarrett Parker 8
9. Heath Hembree 8
10. Thomas Neal 7.6
11. Matt Graham 7.6
12. Henry Sosa 7.6
13. Hector Correa 7.6
14. Charlie Culberson 7.5
15. Conor Gillaspie 7.3
16. Nick Noonan 7.3
17. Brandon Crawford 7.3
18. Roger Kieschnick 7.3
19. Mike Kickham 7.3
20. Wilbur Bucardo 7.3

The following were rated a 7:  Ehire Adrianza; Eric Surkamp; Marvin Barrios; Jason Stoffel; Brett Pill; Aaron King; Charles Jones; Clayton Tanner; Wendell Fairley; Stephen Harrold; Daniel Burkart; Austin Fleet; Chris Dominguez; Reinier Roibal (no particular order).

Remember, just ceiling, and most have wide spaces between floor and ceiling, and all the floors are at best replacement level players.  Still, good to see who might be pretty good if things work out and who is not really that good overall, at least in terms of potential for being a star.  It helps us to keep some perspective on how good any one particular prospect is or isn't.  And who maybe we should keep an eye out for. 

Top Giants Chance to Majors - Talent

He also calculated each prospects chances for the majors based on a number of different factors.  Need to remember that making the majors is not the same as doing well there, hence why I chose to focus on the chance to majors based on talent, as those, to me, are the most likeliest to be the star players we root for on the team.

1. Zach Wheeler 87.9%
2. Brandon Belt 87.0%
3. Thomas Neal 86.7%
4. Tommy Joseph 85.1%
5. Rafael Rodriguez 83.3%
6. Charlie Culberson 82.5%
7. Gary Brown 80.9%
8. Francisco Peguero 80.5%
9. Conor Gillaspie 80.3%
10. Michael Main 79.0%
11. Nick Noonan 76.7%
12. Ehire Adrianza 74.01%
13. Eric Surkamp 72.9%
14. Jarrett Parker 72.5%
15. Brandon Crawford 69.4%

These are still a bit tainted by those who might make the majors but not star in it, but still a pretty good list.  Again, Rafael Rodriguez, Michael Main and Nick Noonan are surprises on the upside, but most are surprises to the downside.