Yes, He is Huff Enuff

I wanted to write a post extolling the wonders that is Aubrey Huff and how invaluable he has been to the Giants when I ran across one by fellow Giants blogger, 8th Inning Weirdness, titled, appropriately enough, "Player Profile:  Aubrey Huff".

Giants Thoughts

I could not think of much to add to Mack's nice and comprehensive article regarding all the great things he has done for the club this season - great job! - other than to point out my posts on Huff, "I'll Huff and Puff:  Giants Sign Aubrey Huff for $3M", "Huff Aftermath:  Batting Cleanup, Merkin DFAed", and "Your 2010 Giants:  Big 6 Questions".  He mentioned that he didn't believe anyone liked the deal:  I did like the deal, and I thought he wasn't done.

That said, no way I could have predicted that he would hit this well.  He is hitting at an elite level, something he has not done much of in his career, plus this is higher than his career:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	AB	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2000	23	TBD	AL	39	122	4	14	5	18	.287	.318	.443	.760	91
2001	24	TBD	AL	111	411	8	45	23	72	.248	.288	.372	.660	74
2002	25	TBD	AL	113	454	23	59	37	55	.313	.364	.520	.884	135
2003	26	TBD	AL	162	636	34	107	53	80	.311	.367	.555	.922	145
2004	27	TBD	AL	157	600	29	104	56	74	.297	.360	.493	.853	124
2005	28	TBD	AL	154	575	22	92	49	88	.261	.321	.428	.749	98
2006	29	TOT	MLB	131	454	21	66	50	64	.267	.344	.469	.813	108
2006	29	TBD	AL	63	230	8	28	24	25	.283	.348	.461	.809	108
2006	29	HOU	NL	68	224	13	38	26	39	.250	.341	.478	.819	107
2007	30	BAL	AL	151	550	15	72	48	87	.280	.337	.442	.778	103
2008	31	BAL	AL	154	598	32	108	53	89	.304	.360	.552	.912	137
2009	32	TOT	AL	150	536	15	85	51	87	.241	.310	.384	.694	81
2009	32	BAL	AL	110	430	13	72	41	74	.253	.321	.405	.725	90
2009	32	DET	AL	40	106	2	13	10	13	.189	.265	.302	.567	47
2010	33	SFG	NL	106	382	20	66	54	50	.312	.398	.552	.951	148
11 Seasons				1428	5318	223	818	479	764	.284	.345	.478	.823	115
162 Game Avg.				162	603	25	93	54	87	.284	.345	.478	.823	115
TBD (7 yrs)				799	3028	128	449	247	412	.287	.343	.477	.819	116
BAL (3 yrs)				415	1578	60	252	142	250	.282	.341	.473	.815	112
SFG (1 yr)				106	382	20	66	54	50	.312	.398	.552	.951	148
DET (1 yr)				40	106	2	13	10	13	.189	.265	.302	.567	47
HOU (1 yr)				68	224	13	38	26	39	.250	.341	.478	.819	107
AL (10 yrs)				1254	4712	190	714	399	675	.283	.340	.472	.812	113
NL (2 yrs)				174	606	33	104	80	89	.289	.377	.525	.902	133

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/6/2010.

So what to make of Huff?  He is headed for a peak career season at age 33.  That is not impossible, but rare.    He will roughly be in the 30 HR and 100+ RBI range, and barring a steep decline for any reason, should still be in the 900's OPS range.  And once he figured things out and got comfortable, he has been lights out:

Split	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
April/March	22	77	15	19	4	1	2	10	1	0	10	12	.247	.344	.403	.747	.266
May	27	94	11	31	6	0	4	13	0	0	14	10	.330	.409	.521	.930	.329
June	26	96	16	27	6	1	6	19	2	0	11	12	.281	.366	.552	.918	.263
July	27	98	25	36	6	1	8	23	2	0	18	15	.367	.462	.694	1.155	.368
August	4	17	3	6	4	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	.353	.389	.588	.977	.375

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/6/2010.

So it does not look like he's headed for a big fall or anything, plus he raised things by a notch this season by walking more than he strikes out while not striking out that often, which is a thing only the best hitters around can do.  July looks flukey, but May and June do not.

From my readings of his interviews, he has mentally taken things up a notch.  Not all players can do that.  He realizes the opportunity this season has handed him, and is grateful for being in a pennant race for the first time in his career.

Plus, I recently found some notes I took from the radio, where KNBR interviewed, from what I recall, one of his former managers or coaches talking about Huff for the 2010 season, noting that Aubrey, after that horrible 2009 season, realized that he needed to get his body into better shape and conditioning so that he would be better able to compete in 2010.  That is another factor why Huff has had such a great season.  This season would look right in place after his nice stretch from 2002 to 2004, as a step up as his body should have reached its prime physical peak.

Judging from the comments he has made during the season and particularly recently, I think the losing affected him.  Perhaps it made his mind a bit lazy.  Maybe he subconsciously didn't bother to keep his body in better shape.  I don't think it was something that he overtly thought, but almost anyone in a bad situation will take a mental break, particularly later in the season when you are losing at another historic rate, which the Devil Rays were doing at that time, when he was with them.  Then he suffered through the Orioles, all the while getting older and older.

But, when you come right down to it, he is not all that old.  33 YO is old, but there have been plenty of hitters who thrived into their mid-to-late 30's.  And he has been a good hitter more often than not in his career, and a great hitter a few times too.  This season, while the best in his career, is not a surprise given what he has done before, but more a surprise that it didn't happen sometime between 2005 and 2008.

Luck or Process?

Whatever.  It don't matter, because he's here.  I see people write that Sabean don't deserve any credit for the signing.  I'll admit a luck factor, but there's the old saying about making your own luck.

From what I read, the Giants first choice was Nick Johnson, and thank goodness he signed with someone else (I think Yankees).  Some would say Sabean lucked out here, but none of us know exactly what happened.  Just because you want someone does not mean you would pay anything for that player.  Johnson's price got too high for Sabean's tastes and valuation, perhaps, and he let it go.  That's as legit a scenario as any I've seen.

Next up was Adam LaRoche, who reportedly got a two-year, $17M offer.  Some has characterized this as LaRoche turning it down (and I wrote that too), but in interviews in spring, LaRoche clarified that he never turned down that offer, per se, but thought he was negotiating on the final offer.

Perhaps he read all the career handbooks that tell you that you never accept your first salary offer, that you try to negotiate to make sure that you get all that you can get.  I know that is the advice that my outplacement firm told me after I was laid off.  But they never mention the downside of that:  if that offer is all they are willing to pay, your move to negotiate suggests that you are not happy with the offer and want more, which could lead your potential employer to move on.

And to be fair, LaRoche did want more, but he also sounded like he wanted to join the Giants eventually, that he thought he was close, though he had his concerns about the ballpark and such.  It really seems to me, based on what I've read, he thought he was just taking another step toward finalizing a contract, not that he "turned the Giants down", as most has characterized it.

But that apparently turned the Giants off him.  Again, it could have something to do with value, that the Giants had a price in their mind that they wanted to pay for LaRoche, and decided that he was not worth that, and moved on.  Which led to signing Huff.

Studying the Giants and particularly Sabean over the years, I think I have a feel for what Sabean's MO is.  When he wants a player like he really wants a player, they are going to pursue him to the bitter end.  That was something that happened with Edgardo Alfonzo (unfortunately, ultimately), as he outbid Boston's wunderkind, causing a Billy Beane moment when their GM tossed a chair (nice article once on the whole process of signing Alfonzo, I think in the Chronicle about 4-6 years ago.).  I think it happened with Benitez too, and it seemed like they really wanted Carlos Lee as well, but he just really wanted to be near his ranch (and make $108M).

What happened with Johnson and LaRoche, however, showed that he was just working through the process of getting a bat at 1B, preferably a lefty.  I think most baseball fans would agree that Johnson was the best hitter of the three to pursue this off-season.  In fact, many fans over the years have excoriated Sabean for not obtaining Johnson.  He's a great, if perpetually injured, player (which he was again this season).   And I think most would agree that LaRoche was the second best option as well.

But nobody is giving Sabean credit for only wanting to pay what he thought those players were worth, and when it went beyond what he thought they were worth, he moved on to the next best option.  We lucked out on some levels, obviously, with Huff.  There was a huge risk with him  given how poorly his 2009 season went, but to the points I made in the posts I linked above and here:  he's not that old that he couldn't have a rebound season, he did hit very well just two seasons ago, he actually underperformed during his peak years (for whatever reasons) but showed his talent was still there and strong in 2008.  Plus, as we found out later, he finally got himself into shape and is raising things another notch because of the playoff chase.

With every player, there is the potential risk of poor performance and potential benefit of good performance.  Yes, he rolled the dice with Huff, but he did sign him for the price that he thought was right given the balance of risk and reward, for each of the three players.

Yes, it worked out for him, but what most of the people still not giving Sabean any credit don't realize is that what he did is probably exactly what they would have done.  He did what he was suppose to do, in the order he was suppose to do.  If he gets the blame when the process ends up with bad choices like Rowand, Benitez, and Alfonzo, we also should commend him for the ones that work out, like Marquis Grissom, Randy Winn, and now Aubrey Huff.

And hopefully Huff has not priced himself out of the Giants price range with his great play so far, but if it gets us to the playoffs and beyond, it would be worth it:  one to two year contract with a team option, $6-9M range, depending on how much he wants to stay in SF.  After all, he has already made almost $40M in his career:  how much is winning it all worth?