I'll Huff and I'll Puff: Giants Sign Aubrey Huff for $3M

As reported by ExtraBaggs, Chronicle, and sfgiants.com, the Giants are expected to sign Aubrey Huff to a contract pending a physical. Baggarley and the Chron reports that it is for $3M and one year. No indication where he will play, will have to wait for the Giants press conference to announce this, probably tomorrow.

But that hasn't stopped the speculation on where he might play. Obviously, with his experience playing 1B, 3B, and OF (mostly RF), he's another flexible cog in the lineup who is expected to supply left-handed power. He's usually been a key RBI producer for most teams he's been on, and that's what has kept him in the lineup despite his poor defense.

There has also been speculation on what this means for Travis Ishikawa, since Huff was a 1B/DH last season for Baltimore then Detroit. And, de riguer, the usual hand twisting over Sabean not being fit to be our GM.

Giants Thoughts

Where to start? First, this is a great deal. $3M gamble on a proven hitter who had a bad 2009 (and 2007 as some like to note) but even he at his current apparent skill level is probably one of the better hitters on the 2010 Giants, which people forget is the main point, not that Huff is just a shadow of his former self. Bill James project that he'll hit .267/.334/.445/.780 with 20 HR (though now reduced by AT&T) and that would be good in the Giants lineup. And he is a career .282/.340/.472/.812 hitter with 203 HR. His strikeout rate supports a continuation of a high batting average, as it has mainly been under the 15% that you want hitters at or below, and he also walks a lot to boot, and have pushed that rate up in recent years, though his strikeout rate has gone up as well, to poor levels last year.

His 2009 was affected greatly by playing in Detroit, which was one of the extreme pitcher's parks in the majors when it first opened but has moderated since then as their hitters figure out the park (much like AT&T in its early years, and it still greatly affects LHH) but appears to still affect players new to it. He still hit .253/.321/.405/.725 in Baltimore with 13 HR before moving on to Detroit where his HR/FB ratio fell from 9.7% to 6.5%.

In addition, he suffered some some extreme bad luck on the road in 2009, with a BABIP of .245 where his road BABIP was .295 for his career. However, some of that might be a decline in his abilities, as his road BABIP was .274 where his career is .290. However, that is mostly a Detroit effect as his home BABIP in Baltimore was .297, which is right in line with his career numbers, it was his elevated strikeout rate that contributed to his offensive decline with Baltimore.

All this suggest that Huff might not be on his last legs but could have a comeback offensively. Particularly if he doesn't play that much against LHP, which for some reason he played proportionally more against in 2009, another reason why his numbers overall were down, as he is not a great hitter against LHP, though OK for a LHH.

Defensively, he's actually much better at 1B than 3B (though still slightly negative), so the odds are that he'll be playing at 1B mostly for the Giants as Sabean said that they want to keep Sandoval at 3B. Of course, with Ishikawa also a LHH and 1B, Travis probably will not see a lot of starting time in 2010 or, as some speculated, will be released at some point. Huff is also capable of playing in the OF, but mostly poorly in RF.

I think this move saves Ishikawa as a reserve on the team whereas if we had signed LaRoche, Ishikawa's days were probably numbered. The Giants need a backup who can take over for Huff if he is really done for his career or if he struggles too long adjusting to AT&T and a new team. In addition, obviously Huff is not the answer long-term at 1B and the Giants don't really have an option at 1B in the minors close, though Thomas Neal with a strong season in AA could put his name in play and Bowker could always move there too. And Ishikawa is much stronger defensively than Huff at 1B, as OK Huff is there defensively (UZR is only slightly negative at 1B in limited play).

Huff looks like he'll be our #3 hitter now, having done the best in that lineup position during his career, though the Giants could put him 5th and DeRosa 3rd. With a relatively high BA, high OBP, plus high SLG, that makes sense. Looks like the lineup will be Sanchez 2nd, Huff 3rd, Sandoval 4th, DeRosa 5th is relatively set, maybe swapping Huff and DeRosa, possibly with Rowand leading off (for now). That leaves Renteria, Schierholtz/Bowker, and Posey to bat 6/7/8, probably with the RF 6th, then Renteria and Posey batting 7/8 depending on the situation.

Using the Bill James projections, this Giants lineup is estimated to produce 4.63 runs scored per game. With last year's pitching and fielding producing a defense of 3.77 runs allowed per game, and assuming they can do the same in 2010, the Giants would have a 95 win season, and be a very strong contender for the NL West title.

I also see a lot of shifting around that might happen. When Sandoval rests, I can see Huff playing 3B against RHP for sure, else Uribe. Huff has been great hitting against RHP during his career, and he did OK against them in 2009 for Baltimore. If Schierholtz or Bowker fail to win RF, Huff could start instead in RF if Ishikawa does enough to beat out Schierholtz or Bowker. Obviously if Huff fails, Ishikawa would be there to take over but if Bowker does well enough, he could take LF, push DeRosa to 3B, and Sandoval to 1B.

There are a lot of fallback positions the Giants could take and not take a huge hit in the lineup should any of our new additions or any of our young potential starters fail to produce. I think that this balances improved offensive production with giving opportunities to our young prospects to succeed or fail.

I would have preferred going with the young prospects, but the Giants management is focused more on continuing the gains they made last season and improving in 2010 relative to 2009 in order to greatly improve the odds of competing for the NL West division title. I think that Ishikawa, when including his stellar defense, would provide as much production at 1B as Huff. But at $3M, Huff is not that expensive and Ishikawa, as much as he produced last year, there are still question marks that, if unanswered, could spell another disastrous year of production from 1B.

Now Giants management can focus on signing our arbitration eligible players and perhaps sign one or two to contract extensions (hopefully Lincecum and maybe Wilson or Sanchez). Also, perhaps they can sign Sandoval to a nice long-term extension going into his free agent years, that would be good.