Is Kung Fu Panda's high BABIP Sustainable?

I posted most of this in response to a question on whether Pablo Sandoval's high BABIP is sustainable or not, and thought I should add it here:

Generally, no, such a BABIP is not sustainable, particularly since he is prone to swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, sometimes way out of the strike zone. It would not surprise me if he's one of those hitters who one day will swing at one of the four wide ones in an IBB and get a hit off it.

But Kung Fu Panda is like a bumblebee. He's big and round and yet he is very athletic, has been described as that for a while now. I was totally amazed by two exceptional slides that he made late last season to score a run, in both cases, he was very close to being tagged out but he slid perfectly to avoid the tag, as if he was a ballet dancer. Once I could call a fluke but twice within a week, I couldn't dismiss. He swings at almost everything under the sun, but he's able to get the good part of the bat on the ball most of the time and get hits, almost ridiculously so, as he does not strike out at a very high rate, he has been able to keep his contact rate at 85% or higher at every level in the minors and been able to continue doing that in the majors.

That to me is the key stat that suggests that perhaps his BABIP is sustainable at a high rate. It is not like he is being cheated on his ABs, he has hit very well for the past two seasons and have not struck out very often. Only the better hitters can keep his contact rate above 85% by not striking out that often.

Of course, it would be better if he took more walks. The best hitters can get as many walks as strikeouts. Obviously, that is easier when you don't strike out that often. That is one negative. But he has improved on that greatly in the past few months. From June to August, he had 28 walks and 45 strikeouts, for a ratio of 0.6, which is much better, and getting closer to the 1.0 the best hitters achieve.

His career BABIP is probably pretty close to what he is capable of. I'm using baseball-reference.com's numbers because they provide splits, and his career BABIP is .351 and 2009's is .349, for perspective. His monthly BABIP has bounced around, and when he is on, it's in the .400's but when he cold, he's in the low .300's. That averages out to .350 roughly (more like .360). His median is .355. If you took his high and low and averaged, then next and averaged, each would roughly be around .350, there is no skewing of the data at all towards high or low, thus far.

Of course, small sample sizing, so this is mostly tea leave reading. But that's all you can really do with a major leaguer so early in his career. The positives are his great contact rate all through the minors and majors, his high resultant BABIP through his career, his good to great monthly performances, his worst months as a major leaguer were last Sept when he hit .315/.333/.499/.783 and this April, .307/.350/.440/.790. The only month he has hit under .300 is July, when he hit .298/.327/.529/.856 with 5 HR in 104 AB.

As noted, his one big negative is his lack of walks, but he has gotten in the last 3 months 13, 5, and 10 walks, which is very good for him, showing that he does take to instruction.

That's another thing I've been impressed with, his willingness to work to get better, for if we assume that the BABIP is not sustainable, then at least he is willing to work to get better and maybe learn to make it sustainable. His willingness to not swing as often has been paying off the last three months, and it is not all due to IBB, he had 7 out of 28, reducing his rate to roughly 7 per month, still good, particularly compared to how he was before, a Bengie Molina-like hitter. In addition, once the Giants said he's our 3B at the end of the 2008 season, he worked all off-season, taking hundreds of grounders at 3B from coaches and continued that into spring training. He works hard, he cares about being better, being good.

I'll end by noting that a number of veteran hitters, such as Carney Lansford, has said that the hitter Kung Fu Panda looks most like is Vladimir Guerrero, for the way they are bad ball hitters. And nothing against Vlad, since I don't know how eager he was to learn, but Sandoval looks poised to become one of the greats of the game because he has a good base for where he is right now, but he's willing to do grunt work like taking grounders every day, ride the exercise bike for half an hour after every game because the coaches told him he needs to keep in better shape, and taking more pitches when his natural inclination is to swing the bat. That is what separates those who are good enough for the majors and those who become the greats, the desire to better yourself, do menial work that many players would at least lock horns with their coaches over doing them, particularly if they are hitting like he is hitting. Best of all, he has a cheery attitude, even when he got hit in the mouth with a grounder, and his braces embedded into his lips, he was upbeat.

Of course, there will be those who say that I'm being a homer, but I think I'm pretty good at separating the fanboy from the inner realist. I think the reasoning above is sound for why Sandoval can do it where others would falter. I think I've covered the angles.

In addition, I think I know more about this particular player and situation because I read up on a lot of Giants news and get to know the players more. Like that he grew up in a middle class environment, which is very different from a lot of Latin American players, and his mother wanted him to go to school and get a degree, but instead he wanted to play baseball, but has been treating it like it was a college degree that he is working towards, willing to learn and absorb what the coaches has to offer. I think this adds to the evaluation of this particular situation, and I'm not saying he will, but I think that there are a lot of excellent signs, but quantitative and qualitative, that suggests that Sandoval can continue to do what he has done so far.

I'm really excited about him, haven't been this excited over a hitter since Will Clark and Matt Williams made the Giants.