Thursday, September 24, 2009

2009 Organizational Standings

Baseball America recently posted the organizational standings for all team's farms systems, including short-season.

The Giants had the best farm system, with a collective 411-286 record and .590 winning percentage. They were 125 games above .500. Second was the Yankees, with a .552 winning percentage and 72 games above .500. So the Giants minor league system did extremely well in 2009, with almost double the number of games above .500 than the second place team.

Salem-Keizer and San Jose were the league champions and AZL Giants and Connecticut Defenders were runner-ups. With 4 of these, they were one ahead of the Yankees, who had two league champs and one runner-up. And only six other teams had two of them, no other had two champions.

Most teams had only 6 affiliates, but seven teams had 7 affiliates. The Giants only had 6. I assume there is no link, but most of the ones with 7 were in the bottom in winning percentage: Astros, Mets, Orioles, Cardinals, Royals were in the bottom 10; Rays were 17th but under .500; only the Mariners were over .500, and they were 10th.

Hopefully, this bodes well for the future for the Giants, but there is no causal link between success in the minors and subsequent success in the majors, that I'm aware of. Still, winning is good, it gives our young prospects experience with the playoffs and the pressures therein. Plus it would help build up their confidence plus you want them used to winning, not used to losing.
Opined by ogc/ at
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33 comments:

  1. AnonymousFriday, September 25, 2009 9:31:00 AM

    I guess they didn't include the DSL. The Giants' team was also the league champ for that league.

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  2. AnonymousFriday, September 25, 2009 9:49:00 AM

    Also, Augusta had the most wins in the SAL. They failed to make the playoffs because they didn't win the first half title nor the second half title. Therefore, of the seven minor league teams fielded by the Giants, only Fresno was not at the "top" of its league.

    Notice the trend over the past few years. The Giants' had winning teams in the low minors several years ago, but lousy teams in AA and AAA, and with rosters filled mostly with minor league veterans. You can see the progression as CT had a winning team this year. As the players move to Fresno next year, I expect to see a very competitive team there.

    It is worth mentioning that the Giants have done a very good job of hiring/developing coaches in the minor. The Giants are probably in the middle of the pack as far as having talent (guys like Brock Bond, Brett Pill, etc. are not considered top prospects), the coaching staff seem to get the most out of them. Also, they lost coaches with good reputation, such as Trevor Wilson, Fred Stanley, Lenn Sakata, etc in the past few years, and yet, the system continues to improve. If and when they replace Bochy, I hope that they look within the system for a replacement.

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  3. obsessivegiantscompulsiveFriday, September 25, 2009 1:52:00 PM

    Second Anon:

    Good points made. I would note that San Jose has been good for many years now, without a subsequent progression to the AA and AAA teams, but yes, there has been a general progression the past couple of years, though I would note that the common link there appears to be the progression of Madison Bumgarner through our farm system.

    Yes, very good point about coaches. I, in particular, tip my hat off to Steve Decker for his work done in San Jose the past few years, then moving to Connecticut and performing a miracle there. If we were to dip in for anyone to replace Bochy, I would chose Decker.

    I never said that Brock Bond or Brett Pill are top prospects, I said that they are ones to watch and see. I like both of their strikeout rate and the walk to strikeout ratio, not the greatest, but as I noted, something to watch for further development.

    It would be great if we had a bunch of top prospects, but that is not necessary to be a good club, what we do need are the average middling players to fill spots and not require us to go out and spend $8-10M on an average free agent player. Bond, with his high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and high walk to strikeout ratio, shows potential for maybe making the step up to the majors with his hitting.

    He still needs to prove himself at AAA, but he hit well in AA (not great but good), and if he can continue that in AAA, he should be considered for call-up in the second half of 2010 if necessary.

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  4. DProfessorFriday, September 25, 2009 1:56:00 PM

    What's the point of having a good minor league system and some of the top-notched players (Bumgarner, Posey et al) if our stupid manager won't play them?

    Time to fire Bochy.

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  5. hemiolaFriday, September 25, 2009 2:02:00 PM

    Hey, ogc, what do you think about the rumors of a potential multi-year deal for Sanchez?

    I really don't like the idea because Bond is going to be major-league ready 2B in 2011 with a very good bat, potentially a batting champion contender. If he brings that to the table, he's much better than Sanchez because he can draw a walk, too.

    The Giants have other options: Burriss will be working on his game all of next year and Gillaspie (is 2B an option for him?) looks to rise quickly.

    If it means ensuring that Sanchez isn't around for 2011, I would pick up the $8 million dollar option, show some faith in the guy for next year, and hope for a Class A performance, because with a couple of early draft picks we may actually recoup the value of Alderson, a possibility that becomes less and less likely the older Sanchez is in his walk year.

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  6. obsessivegiantscompulsiveFriday, September 25, 2009 2:40:00 PM

    dregarx:

    Bond is nowhere necessarily going to be a major league ready 2B in 2011 with a good bat. There are many players who do well in AA and crap out in AAA or the majors. I only noted that he's one to watch, not that he's necessarily going to be a major leaguer, let alone one with a very good bat, let alone a batting champion contender.

    When he was drafted, Gillaspie was mentioned as a possibility at 2B because he has no power and 3B with no power is pretty rare. However, his poor 2009 season put any thoughts of playing in the majors in the backburner for him, he first needs to do well in the minors.

    I would not pay Sanchez $8M for one year. That is too huge a risk given that we have no idea what his health is going to be. That said, he should be healthy by 2011.

    And he's a good hitter when he's healthy. As long as the money is not crazy (I think $5-6M per year is reasonable) and it's only for 2 years, maybe 3 (depends on the contract), I would be OK with signing him.

    Bond is too far away plus didn't do that well in AA to think that he's going to do something up here. His OPS would have to be over 1000 for me to think that. He did well enough to say "keep an eye on him for 2010", but not much more than that.

    I see Frandsen as the beneficiary if Sanchez is not signed. Burriss is going to have to prove himself in AAA now that he's blown his chance in the majors. Even if Sanchez is signed, Frandsen is the fall-back if Sanchez is still not 100% to start the season. I see Frandsen playing a Uribe role in 2010, particularly since Uribe probably earned himself a 2 year contract for at least $3-4M with his play this season and probably will sign elsewhere.

    Unless, that is, he is signed to play 2B.

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  7. hemiolaFriday, September 25, 2009 6:55:00 PM

    How much does the park in Connecticut affect your evaluation of players?

    Because Bond has no power, and probably never will, but would that park be a damper on his line of .333/.429/.409 in terms of BA and OBP? Or does it mostly affect power numbers?

    If Sanchez is more likely to do better in 2011 than 2010, then yes, a two year deal is best to try to set up his last year before free agency as a strong, potentially Class A free agent year. But isn't there a risk that if we decline the option, he leaves us in free agency?

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  8. hemiolaFriday, September 25, 2009 7:24:00 PM

    Of course you're right about Bond; I couldn't find any raves about him on sites not affiliated with the Giants. So what kind of things do scouts look at to determine that makes a AA batting champion with patience is not a 'prospect'? I'm sure there's lots of stuff I don't know; it's relatively difficult, well, nigh-impossible, to be well-versed in the ways of scouting at 17 years old.

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  9. obsessivegiantscompulsiveSaturday, September 26, 2009 2:53:00 PM

    In the case of Bond, Dodd Stadium has little effect because the main problem was the decrease in HRs. However, I would note that the two years I examined Dodd (only two years available), every hitter with at least 5 HR suffered to a large degree from hitting in Dodd.

    Yes, there is a risk if we decline the option. That is why (hopefully) Sabean is negotiating right now with Sanchez's agent to nail down a contract.

    But I think the risk is minimal. He's come off two injuries in a season, particularly one involving his knee that requires operation but with no time to see how he recovers from it to show other teams. He's not going to get much interest from other teams, other than minimal (well, for MLB starters) pay for 2010, and I don't see anyone offering multiple years.

    Also, I would hope he sees the potential for the team.

    Yeah, sorry, but I wasn't raving about Bond, I was just saying to keep an eye out for him because he had a nice 2009 in AA. Unfortunately, nice in AA translate into crappy in AAA unless he brings things up another notch. Same for AAA and moving to MLB.

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  10. obsessivegiantscompulsiveSaturday, September 26, 2009 3:08:00 PM

    I'm not absolutely sure what scouts look for. Unfortunately, I don't have the time or money to go to games and do scouty type of things.

    So what I do is synthesize all that I've read and learned from studying baseball statistics, and make my best guesses as to what might happen.

    Ah, so you are learning. I totally recommend getting both Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler et al and Minor League Baseball Analyst by Deric McKamey. They would give you a nice intro into what to look for statistically - it is the basis of what I've been presenting here.

    The books have a lot of data for fantasy baseball playing: if you play, I would wait until the new editions come out in Dec/Jan and get those via Amazon (cheapest there); if you don't care for fantasy baseball, then go to baseballhq.com and see if they still sell older editions for under half price. The Baseball Forecaster has a nice toolkit up front that you can learn the basics of what they use to analyze ball players. The Minor League Baseball Analyst talks about what he looks for in players, as he takes both a scouting and sabermetric view of players.

    Another nice site to read up on prospects is baseball-intellect.com. He takes more of a scouting approach to looking at prospects. I've linked to his site many times, when he analyzed Giants prospects.

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  11. obsessivegiantscompulsiveSaturday, September 26, 2009 3:09:00 PM

    Main things to remember is that just because he has nice stats in the minors does not mean that he'll be good in the majors. He has to be Vlad Guerrero good in the minors to give me a good feeling that he'll be OK in the majors. That is because most minor leaguers, particularly pitchers, are not very good, relative to MLB players. Thus a hitter has to show that he's a man among boys in the minors to give me a lot of hope that he might do it in the majors. That's what Sandoval, Ishikawa, Bowker, and now Posey did in AA and AAA to give me good hope that they might have some success in the majors. But I have a surer feeling about Sandoval and Posey because both can avoid strikeouts in the minors, while Ishikawa and Bowker couldn't, and thus could be exposed in the majors if they don't further develop.

    Another key thing, as you note, is patience. But you have to tie that in with plate discipline too, meaning, not only does he have to be able to take walks, but he also has to be able to avoid strikeouts too.

    Thus why I pointed out Bond. Nice BA, OBP, OPS, but also very high walk/strikeout ratio. Only the better hitters can keep that around 1.0 or better, and he was pretty close.

    Unfortunately, you can't always tell from stats whether that's a one year fluke or a sign of improvement. He didn't do that well in San Jose the previous season. That's why I said that we should keep an eye for him in 2010, and maybe he might be ready to come up if Frandsen falters at 2B. But maybe not.

    So, key things for hitters: walk/strikeout ratio, contact rate (which is inverse of strikeout rate), plus walk rate. Also, check his BABIP (sorry, haven't had time to put up a glossary yet, but Batting Average on Balls in Play) and HR/FB, plus G/L/F percentages. I also like to look at his AB/HR for power hitters, and Extra-Basehit percentage is good too (percentage of hits that are extrabase hits), as a young hitter might only hit doubles now but homers later.

    For pitchers, look at his K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings) and K/BB (strikeouts per walk raio). Also observe his BABIP (most pitchers regress to the .300 mean, but a select few are capable of keeping that low), BB/9 (it's actually OK for pitchers to have a high BB/9 rate as long as he's able to strikeout at least double that walk rate).

    I would also look at how he does against LH and RH hitters, plus how he does at home versus the road. For ease, I tend to focus on only the road numbers, that is less biased should he be helped or punished greatly by his home numbers. I also look at how he does month by month: a major leaguer has to be consistent enough to hit every month, at home and road, LH/RH, or he'll be shuffled around by the manager willy-nilly. That is why Bochy has to do so many things with players, most of them turned so cold that he had to go to other players to see if they can do the job on a daily basis.

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  12. obsessivegiantscompulsiveSaturday, September 26, 2009 3:09:00 PM

    Go to minorleaguesplits.com, pull up the minor leaguer you are interested in. Say, Brock Bond. Nice .335/.432/.411/.843 batting line. But that is his raw stats. Click on MLE and you get: .275/.350/.329/.679, which is not that great but OK if he's great defensively and we have great bats elsewhere in the lineup. That would have been better than what we got from 2B in 2009, though, so that is why I said to keep an eye out for him.

    Plus, he had 73 walks and 78 strikeouts, which is almost a 1.0 ratio. And he's been pretty good with that during his career.

    In addition, his contact rate was 83% (which is equal to (477-78)/477), which is right around what you want to see from a hitter, which is 85% or better. He had a nice contact rate in 2007 and 2008 too, which shows consistency, both in doing it and adjusting to do in in higher levels, where he's facing pitchers that are tougher.

    I also look at his age relative to the league. If he is younger by more than two years, then I would accept lower numbers since he has an age and experience gap. Bond at 23 in Connecticut is about right in age, so no adjustment.

    So I like his contact and BB/K ratio, not great but very good, and if he can continue to improve at each level, as he has for the most part each level, he can make the majors. But at AA, he still needs to adjust to both AAA and MLB pitching, which just crushes some hitters.

    I rate his chances better because he has been able to avoid strikeouts to a large degree (but not quite good yet, i.e. contact rate of 85%+) plus took a lot of walks. Taking walks are a good signal.

    One positive negative on his 2009 season is that his BABIP is much higher than previous seasons. He might regress back to the .360 level he had before, and his numbers will be more like 2008 than 2009. But if he improved his approach in some way, that could be a new level of performance that he might carry forward.

    All hence why I say to watch him in 2010: http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/index.html then input his name.

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  13. obsessivegiantscompulsiveSaturday, September 26, 2009 3:14:00 PM

    What I think is bad news regarding keeping Freddy Sanchez: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2009/09/26/freddy-sanchez-to-have-left-knee-surgery-next-week-says-hes-confident-going-into-the-free-agent-market/

    Sounds hesitant to return for sure, though he said he would listen.

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  14. hemiolaSaturday, September 26, 2009 3:48:00 PM

    Wow, thanks. You've pretty much doubled the list of baseball sites I have bookmarked. I started out looking at the 2009 Baseball Prospectus, and since then I found fangraphs. Not an excess of resources, by any means.

    Wow, this FSanchez trade is getting worse and worse every day.

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  15. Walter GuestSunday, September 27, 2009 5:06:00 AM

    You people (as is the Giant organization) are greatly underrating Brock Bond. He put up Brett Butler type numbers in AA. Numbers that butler put up at the age of 25 in the minors. The fact that he's a middle infielder makes him a premium prospect. A smart organization would have given him a call-up to have a look. But I don't think the Giants understand OBP. He must have some speed too because they had him trying to steal a lot although he got thrown out a lot. His defense must be OK because the pitching staff had a great ERA.

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  16. obsessivegiantscompulsiveMonday, September 28, 2009 7:43:00 AM

    Walter, if I had the ability to search for hitters who hit like Brett Butler type numbers in AA, I'll bet that I would find a whole bunch of middle infielders minor leaguers who hit just as well or better in AA who ended up never even making the majors, or at best fizzling in the majors in a brief call-up. That is life in the minors, most of them end up failing.

    Sure, if you want to get into semantics, yes, a middle infielder makes him a premium prospect. By that definition, so would the other 100+ 2B and SS in the minors today.

    A desperate organization would have called up Brock Bond, much like we were desperate when we called up Brian Bocock, who, by your assertion, is a premium prospect because he's a middle infielder. He is not a premium prospect - he is playing a premium position. A premium prospect is one who is outdoing everyone in his league, particularly at his position.

    So, you are equating a pitching staff with a good ERA with an OK defensive 2B. And that means, say, that Madison Bumgarner had no say in how good his ERA is.

    A good staff ERA is not just the result of an OK defensive 2B, it is the whole team contributing, PLUS, as I've been trying to point out with my writing, it is mainly the product of a staff of good pitchers.

    What you don't understand is the leap in quality between AA and AAA, and then AAA and the MLB. Bond did not have very good numbers in AA that show that he can make it in the majors. He should have been a man among boys if he was fully developed and ready to hit in the majors. Much like Sandoval last season.

    As I noted before, his numbers are nice enough that I would pay attention to him and see if he progresses in AAA. If he adjust enough, he can hit similarly in AAA.

    Even then, hitting 800's OPS in AAA is no big deal either, and he would have to do it again at the major league level.

    As I've been saying in my blog the past 6-7 years is that the vast majority of prospects never make it. They are, for the most part, one huge crapshoot. Even the top picks like Posey are no better than a coinflip in terms of becoming the good player we all hope for, though his odds of at least being a useful player is excellent. But when you are talking about a Top 5 pick, you are not looking for a useful player, you are looking for a good player who is going to be one of your team leaders going forward.

    So, the Giants understand OBP. Just because their longshot position prospects don't pay off does not mean that they don't understand that. When an organization focuses so much on pitching in their draft picks, especially their highest picks consistently, that means the talent level on the position player side is lacking relatively, plus means that the vast majority of them will fail to make the majors.

    For example, EME was a second round pick, but no more than maybe 3-4 percent of them ever become a good player in the majors. That's a good 20-30 years of draft to find one in that round.

    And it gets even worse with each round after that.

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  17. obsessivegiantscompulsiveMonday, September 28, 2009 8:19:00 AM

    Dregarx, there are a number of things to remember when regarding trades.

    First, every trade is a risk but you don't want a GM who is not willing to take a calculated risk, for then he's too wimpy to ever take you anywhere. This was a calculated risk.

    Sanchez can be good when healthy, but he hasn't been totally healthy for a while. I think it is clear that the Giants knew about his knee but thought that they could nurse it along enough so that he could be productive. People are shocked that they might have known beforehand that he would need surgery, but I'm not, there are many injuries where if you take the precautions with him, he can be healthy enough to help out now. If he didn't screw up his shoulder taking batting practice, it probably would have been a good risk, I liked how he fit into our lineup, thought he was a good addition - which I did not think before the trade - and I just didn't like the price because I thought we could get more for Alderson.

    But given how poorly Alderson has done since joining the Pirates, even worse than with the Giants, I would have to give Sabean and gang their due in evaluating pitchers. They have a pretty good track record with that, and the only really bad trade - the Nathan trade - one, looks like a renegade trade that someone other than Sabean pulled off, and two, did not look that bad when the trade was made, a .300 hitting All-Star catcher for a reliever who faltered under pressure, a prospect who could never keep himself healthy enough to fulfill his promise, and a head-strong middle to back of the rotation prospect.

    Second, you can never fully evaluate a trade within that season. It may look very good or very bad, but it can look very different in a few years. Take the Ethier trade for the A's. Looked pretty good when they traded him for Milton Bradley. Looks like a trade as bad as any that the Sabean Naysayers like to point out for Sabean.

    Now, I'm not saying that this Sanchez trade will ever look good. I'm just saying you can't truly evaluate the final overall results based on just how things work out in the season it was made.

    Third, that said, sometimes that season is the time to evaluate the trade. It depends on the context in which the trade was made.

    Sometimes trades are made just for that season alone, like the Holliday trade. If he moves on to another team, leaving the Cards with two lousy picks, and Brett Wallace becomes a recurring All-Star 3B for the A's, it will look pretty bad in terms of trade value in the long run. But it was a success because he did well in joining the Cards and helping to drive for a pennant and a playoff spot.

    I think that is a major area where people go wrong with their evaluations of trades, you have to take into account the context in which they are made, the situation as it was known at the time of the trade, or else a lot of trades will look pretty stupid to make. And that gives a lot of people fodder to blast their GMs, but I feel that is improper analysis.

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  18. obsessivegiantscompulsiveMonday, September 28, 2009 8:20:00 AM

    The context here, I feel, is that the Giants are looking to get Sanchez for the next couple of years, in exchange for Alderson. If they accomplish that by signing him and Sanchez can hit around his career average, which is much better than the 2B production we got in 2009 - only .239/.285/.337/.622, and it would have been even worse without Juan Uribe's .274/.331/.538/.869 in 117 AB with 6 HR there - then I think the trade is a success in that regard. But if he doesn't hit well, then it could be a bad trade, depending on how Alderson turns out. But as I noted, you don't want a timid GM, trades are inherently risky, you have to accept that trades will turn out bad for you sometimes.

    If they lose him to free agency, they could be OK if they can get a draft pick in the late first round (which is where Alderson was picked) plus a supplemental but that is only if he is a Type A free agent, and I'm not sure what he would be. If they don't get anything for him, then I think it is a bad trade, as I noted before, while I accept that Alderson's prospect status took a big hit this season, I thought that we could get more for him than a gimpy 2B who wasn't hitting well the past couple of seasons, except for April this season.

    It is also a success if Alderson does fizzle out like he appears to be doing right now.

    If Alderson reaches his potential and be a middle of rotation starter, then it is one of those trades that works out for both sides if Sanchez does OK for us and is signed for two years.

    And, of course, if Alderson somehow becomes the ace of a staff, I would consider the trade to be a bad one, as aces are pretty rare.

    My opinion, as usual, take it or leave it.

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  19. obsessivegiantscompulsiveMonday, September 28, 2009 8:30:00 AM

    Oh, and you are welcome. I am serious about my statement that "I will try to teach, best that I can."

    If I had the money, I would have loved to become a teacher. Feel free to ask me questions, I don't feel that I have all the answers, and I know I'll always be learning, but I'm willing to share what I do know or think that I know. And maybe someone else will learn as well.

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  20. hemiolaMonday, September 28, 2009 1:56:00 PM

    About Brock Bond: you reference an OPS of around 800 in the minors as indicative of a medium-level prospect, and that's intuitive. However, I know that wOBA and OPS+ factor in OBP as being more important than SLG, and Bond's OBP is actually greater than his SLG, so OPS may not be the most precise estimate of his value as a hitter.

    Granted, the discrepancy isn't likely to be that large but I think it moves him from a middle-of-the-road guy to a upper-middle kind of hitter.

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  21. Walter GuestMonday, September 28, 2009 2:12:00 PM

    Brock Bond had the third highest OBP in all AA and AAA this year (Mexican League excepted) and he played in an extreme pitchers park.

    On paper, the guy is an exceptional prospect. I'd like to see a middle infielder in the high minors with an OBP like his in the last 20 years who didn't make it in the majors.

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  22. hemiolaMonday, September 28, 2009 2:27:00 PM

    I think I agree with you Walter Guest but I'll hold out to see if obsessivegiantscompulsive has other information I don't know about.

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  23. hemiolaMonday, September 28, 2009 2:28:00 PM

    On the Sanchez trade, several great points as usual here. All trades are calculated risks, but all vary in the risk/reward involved. As you’ve noted before, this is a rebuilding year, and I agree with you. A trade such as this is detrimental to a team in a rebuilding stage of development, unless the talent exchange involved is demonstrably in favor of the team relinquishing prospects.

    What Sanchez knew about his knee is not big news to me; my opinions on the trade don’t factor in injury at all, as I don’t believe that injury will be too big of a factor in the years relevant to the deal.

    I argue that the Sanchez trade can be evaluated as a bad trade without knowing what will happen in the future. Yes, it can look different in a few years, but the thought processes occur at that moment in time, judging the relative probabilities of future results. The crux of my argument has to do with something you do agree with me on: that we could have gotten more for Alderson. Simply put, if the trade value (present value in economics) of the asset dealt is less than the trade value of the asset gained, you can determine that the trade was bad. You factor in the probabilities of future events into the formation of an estimate of value, and you make an assessment.

    I agree that Sabean analysis of Giants pitching prospects has been superb; one simply has to look at the careers of Lincecum and Cain compared to the careers of all the other players who were traded. I checked out the Alderson stats for the Pirates, and you’re right: his SO/9 has dropped even more while his BB/9 has doubled. Perhaps his value has been dropping, and when we look back on the trade, we’ll see that Sabean was ‘selling medium’, rather than high (that would’ve been last offseason) or low (after a potential tanking next year).

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  24. hemiolaMonday, September 28, 2009 2:28:00 PM

    Still, all things considered, it’s hard to look at the deal as anything but a bad one. You noted that Sanchez is valued at around $8 million dollars, and per fangraphs, that does hold true. So he would be an improvement over the dreck we were putting out there this year.

    But still, in the context of the trade the intent was for us to pick up the option (this is what I would do now) and gain through his performance next year while being paid that amount. That would mean that Sanchez in performance is worth his market value. Net production in terms of cost expenditure is zero: the Giants could’ve gained such a player (one whose pay is commensurate with his production) in free agency without losing a premium prospect.

    So the Giants come out behind unless Sanchez experiences an unexpected spike in production in his last ‘prime year’ as a hitter.

    In short, I agree with you in that I think the Giants could’ve gotten a lot more out of Alderson, but I disagree that the trade cannot be well evaluated at that point in time, for that very fact, as trade value considers probability of future possibilities. Again, I’m not inherently opposed to risk-taking such as this by a GM, but having it occur during a rebuilding year is extremely irritating.

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  25. hemiolaMonday, September 28, 2009 2:30:00 PM

    Last notes:

    FSanchez is a Type B free agent this year. He was on pace to be a Type A before the rash of injuries with the Giants. I hope that without the injuries he’ll be a Type A next year.

    Can the Giants get draft picks this offseason if they decline the option? I’ve been told they can’t.

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  26. obsessivegiantscompulsiveMonday, September 28, 2009 5:42:00 PM

    Now that I might be able to get, Walter.

    Bond had a .429 OBP in 2009.

    In the year 2000, Jermaine Clark of the New Haven Ravens, at the age of 23, had a .421 OBP and he played 2B all that season. Not exactly the same, but I would say that if we are talking about an "exceptional" prospect, 8 points of OBP should not matter much.

    In 4 seasons in the majors, he has amassed 78 AB, hitting .154/.244/.192/.437.

    Yes, very exceptional, but for the wrong reason.

    And this was the first season I searched for one...

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  27. obsessivegiantscompulsiveMonday, September 28, 2009 9:29:00 PM

    Another exceptional MI prospect:

    Jesus Medrano, 2B, 2003 Marlins AA, hits .297/.411/.413/824 in 2002 at age 23. Dropped out of baseball after the 2004 season, never made the majors.

    I must add, however, that the next guy down from Medrano turned out OK: Freddy Sanchez, when he was still with Boston before being traded to the Pirates. His OBP was .403.

    The difference between the two above is that while Medrano struck out 82 times in 414 AB, roughly 80% contact rate, where the average hitter is 85% and the best are at 90%+, Sanchez struck out only 45 times in 311 AB, roughly 86% contract rate. Sanchez showed better ability at avoiding the strike out than Medrano, giving him a better chance to survive the rise to AAA, but still needing some development, before making it to the majors.

    His first time in AAA, not so good, not so bad, but his first time full-season in AAA, he hit very well in AAA, which allowed the Red Sox to trade him to the Pirates.

    There are no sure indicators on how good a prospect is. OBP is nice, but not really that indicative of how good he is at avoiding strikeouts. It is the batters who can avoid strikeouts who are better prospects, guys like Sandoval, but also Burriss. That is why he was given a chance in the majors, because he did so well at doing that in the majors, then did well in spring training.

    I would have still put him in AAA, let him prove himself there first in a full season, since he didn't do that yet, while giving Frandsen a chance to be a full time starter this season, since he HAD done the full season high performance at every level of the minors, he only had the majors to prove whether he could do it or not. I still think the Giants screwed that one up.

    My way, if Frandsen does well, all is good, if he falters, he goes to AAA in a couple of months, and hopefully Burriss is ready to come up and try to hold onto the job. Frandsen had earned a chance to start in the majors.

    ReplyDelete
  28. obsessivegiantscompulsiveMonday, September 28, 2009 9:31:00 PM

    Oh, and that is why I suggest looking at a hitter's contact rate as well as BB/K ratio, as well as observe his BABIP, to catch when he is just having a lucky or not so lucky season with the balls in play. I picked up all that from Baseball Forecaster and Ron Shandler's team of baseball analysts.

    ReplyDelete
  29. AnonymousTuesday, September 29, 2009 7:45:00 AM

    If Noonan has a good year next year he will be the Top prospect for 2b. He may not have the one stand-out tool but defintely has all the tools to be a well rounded MLB 2b

    ReplyDelete
  30. obsessivegiantscompulsiveTuesday, September 29, 2009 4:50:00 PM

    Noonan has really hurt his prospect status with his last two seasons so far.

    However, it should be remembered that he is still very young relative to the rest of the players in the league, so there is that margin for improvement as he develops and matures, and his age catches up with the league.

    His major problem right now is his strikeout rate, it is very high, particularly for someone with just moderate power. However, his plate discipline improved greatly this season, as his walk rate more than doubled.

    Also good is the fact that his bat heated up in the second half of the season, as he developed and adjusted to the competition. He hit .261/.334/.395/.729 overall, but in his last 3 months:

    Jul: .256/.333/.433/.766
    Aug: .295/.351/.432/.783
    Sep: .293/.377/.431/.808

    Also, first 3 months: 31% XBH%
    Then, next 3 months: 35% XBH%

    Even more telling, he struck out 20+ times the first four months, then only 6 times in 88 AB in Aug and 5 times in 58 AB in Sep, while gaining more walks than strikeouts.

    I think those bode very well for him in 2010, hopefully he gets to advance to AA Richmond and show hims stuff there. Plus, I thought his one standout tool was his speed, so he does have that.

    There is no shame in not being a "top" prospect. Noonan right now looks like he could be an average type hitter with average defense. That's worth a lot of money on the field, plus you need the average players to complement your good hitters.

    And imagine if we just had an average offense this season: we probably could have won 95-100 games, with this pitching staff.

    Thanks for pointing out Noonan, he showed more than his overall stats showed, particularly in August and September, clearly the light bulb went on there, and he should recapture his prospect status next season, wherever he is playing.

    ReplyDelete
  31. AnonymousWednesday, September 30, 2009 8:03:00 PM

    Great Stuff!!

    Another thing about Noonan is that I think his defense in better than most think....I don't know the stat's but after two full season's he has two championship rings and must have contributed some. I realize that both teams have had outstanding pitching but I believe both have had good defensive teams that helped as well that doesn't get talked about.
    Bond seems to be a better contact hitter but Noonan seems to have some positives too. For his age, he seems to have a mature approach to the game and able to contribute through some extra tools and intangables...(running, extra base hit's, set-up guy, advancing runners....great bunter etc). Hopefully as your numbers may indicate, maybe he will do well in next year and be a pleasant surprise

    ReplyDelete
  32. BoofThursday, October 01, 2009 9:17:00 AM

    Hey, don't you owe me a headline?

    ReplyDelete
  33. obsessivegiantscompulsiveFriday, October 02, 2009 5:57:00 PM

    Boof, I do recall making some sort of bet with you and I am more than happy to comply if you remind me of what that bet was. I just recall it being posting something praising you and denigrating me, but other than that, I don't recall anything.

    In any case, I will still write what I feel like writing.

    ReplyDelete

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