In this simulation, the Giants end up 79-83, which is the best record I have seen among the projections for the team this year. They only did 100 simulations, so that might have been a factor, but still, this is close to where I think the Giants will end up in 2009, around .500. They were behind the leaders, D-backs and D-gers, on average 7-8 games, so they probably were close until later, when the other two pulled away.
They won the division 9% of the time and secured the wild card slot 4% of the time, meaning they were in the playoffs 13% of the time.
Giants Thoughts
This is the highest win total accorded the Giants in any simulation I've seen thus far. Most had the Giants in the mid-70's, I think.
Of course, you have to take these simulations with a giant grain of salt. It doesn't account for mid-season trades or unexpected injuries or performances that either fall off the cliff or soar for no apparent reason.
Still, I think it's a good enough gauge of the talent of our team going into the season, giving us a nice ballpark idea of where they are. This is about what I thought the team was capable of, around .500. I think there is a good chance that they end up over .500 for the season, because I think most projections are underestimating what some of the Giants players can do. But I think they are still fair projections for the most part, given a mechanical projection system.
I've seen worry over how the Giants are doing in spring training against the other team's main starter. I think it's too early to worry and I would note that I have seen Giants teams that kicked butt in the spring, only to fall flat on their face, and other Giants teams that sucked totally in the spring and then hit the ground running once the season started. At some point you just have to trust that the talent you saw before is still there, and go with that once the season start.
After a few weeks of sucking there, then I'll start worrying...
Still, Go Giants!
I had them projected at 82-83 wins in my first projection during the offseason. I might tune it up a little more.
ReplyDeleteDing-Ding-Ding!!!
ReplyDeleteFirst projection that I've seen that. Thanks, I'll have to go check our your projection.
It's over here if you're interested...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.baycityball.com/2008/12/31/final-2009-giants-war-projection/
The loss of Romo probably knocks the Giants back closer to 82 wins than 83 wins.
Thanks for the link, that's what I meant by I'll have to go check out your projection.
ReplyDeleteI missed it because I wasn't online much during the holidays, spending time with my kids.
Very interesting, yes, but way over my head. You are a good analyst so I will take your word on it. An update would be great, though I would wait until closer to the start of the season, so that more of the roster spots are set.
The lost of Romo could be trouble, but it depends on if the guy he is replaced by does poorly or not in his stead. For example, Waldis Joaquin has to be opening eyes. Plus, if Valdez does turn out to be healthy and returns to his form of last season, he should more than take care of the lost of Romo, and then some.
BP updated their PECOTA projected standings today.
ReplyDeleteGiants project as 3rd in NL West at 76-86 with the RS/RA ratio projected at 683/717 and .263/.319/.397 as the AVG/OBP/SLG projections.
Also mentioned that LA and AZ starters look pretty darn good.
Just FYI all.