Is Schmidt Back and Other Questions on the Rotation

I answered this on McCovey Chronicles but thought I would post it here too and fill in more. Some posters were wondering if Schmidt was back and complaining about the rotation after Schmidt and Lowry. I - tongue in cheek - cheekily answered that he's been back since mid-last season and noted that the rotation going forward should be better. As one poster retorted, Schmidt does appear to be improved over last season because his velocity is up and his control has returned - I would have to take his word for it as I haven't seen him pitch in a while, don't get much TV lately - but my main point, as I'll get into below, is that statistically he appears to be about where he was for the second half of last season.

Schmidt's Been Back Since Mid-Last Season

Schmidt has actually been pitching like he could this season, despite the down and up aspect of his game performances. Looking at his game lines, I realize now that he's really only had one game that was out of character for him: the game against Atlanta at home. The other bad games are explainable.

* His first game: he just cannot pitch well at PETCO, and that continued to be true.
* Fourth start vs. Colorado: pitching in Colorado, 'nuff said!

Even the Atlanta game was not wildly out of character, he has historically had a high ERA against Atlanta, home or away, they apparently have his number from his days as a Brave.

Even the good games are explainable. While PETCO, a pitchers park, gives him fits, he loves pitching at Miller Park. And there is something about the Cubs that he has always just loved, particularly at home, but also in Wrigley. Same with Arizona and same with pitching at home.

In addition, his pitching line right now is not far from what he did in the second half of last season. His pitching in the second half of last season yielded a 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .216 BAA after the ASG. That's not far off from 3.29 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .207 BAA that he has now. His K-rate is down this year but so is his BB-rate, ending with his K/BB ratio being identical, which is the most important thing from what I've read about peripherals in Ron Shandler's book. His HR-rate is higher but still very good. He should bounce around in this range for the rest of the year, barring any injury, unless he really HAS returned, as in returned to his dominating ways of a few years ago. Encouraging signs but too soon to count on yet.

Rotation: Lookin' Goood!

So if Lowry can continue to pitch well - and after such an encouraging first start, it's hard not to think that, I agree with the other poster on one of the McCovey Chronicle diaries who said that then we only need one of Cain, Morris, Wright to pitch well to make .600 winning percentage going forward.

And as I noted on another post, Cain and Morris has pitched better than their stats show, their stats are skewed by their bad start in Colorado, but they've had a number of dominating starts, peripheral-wise, it is just that the ER didn't reflect how well they pitched. In addition, Wright has done fine for a 5th starter, he's really only had one bad start out of six, the one against San Diego (and what a game today for his seventh start!). And he was sailing along in that one until the HBP seemed to throw him off kilter and it spiraled downward in a death spiral after that. These has been illuminated by their P.Q.S. score, which I've been updating regularly on a link that I've placed on the side, it shows that there has been quality pitching on their part. So hopefully, we'll be winning more than a .600 pace going forward.

Likewise, Hennessey, despite his nice stats, has actually pitched poorer than Wright, look at that K/BB ratio for him!!! While Wright we can expect that from, we've seen Hennessey be dominating before, so he should go back down when Wilson comes off the DL, and figure out how to pitch well consistently instead of once in a while because that would be worth the investment to getting him there, particularly if we do lost Schmidt next season.

So I think our rotation will be looking better going forward. Both because the starters are doing well (or well enough as the case may be) and the bullpen won't be giving up inherited runners to the extent that they had been earlier.

Bullpen Notes

And on the topic of the bullpen, I want to say thanks to Fassero for his good work for us last season. Some feel that we should not have given him a contract for 2006 but I considered it a $750K insurance in case the young relievers faltered, so I think it was worth doing, even if in retrospect it was a bad decision. But he pitched great as a reliever last season - it was starting that screwed his stats up - and I think that he eventually would have pitched well again for us as a reliever, I still don't know why they didn't just start Correia instead.

And it is foolhardy to rely on three young relievers to do well, which also in retrospect, came true as well, Munter and Taschner has not done well at all, only Accardo has come through the way we thought they might. And we can throw in Walker here as well, since he was not really that good last season, even when closing. Luckily, Kline and Worrell has been here to absorb some of that and Accardo, as noted, has done well too, plus Correia, who basically took Fassero's job.

With Benitez now in the mix and doing well enough, that gives us four relievers to rely on in Benitez, Kline, Worrell (despite recent difficulties), and Accardo plus Correia, who can hopefully continue to do well, in spite of high walk rate and lower K-rate. And also hopefully, Munter can find his mojo again, he was doing well the first two weeks but has just fallen apart since then, becoming very inconsistent. He could also be on the bubble for going when Wilson returns, though, as I noted, I hope Hennessey goes down. But if Hennessey stays, and he might since they let him relieve the other day, he's obviously got the long-relief role of Fassero and Correia gets bumped into middle relief.